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Irrigation expansion is often posed as a promising option to enhance food security. Here, we assess the influence of expansion of irrigation, primarily in rural areas of the contiguous United States (CONUS), on the intensification and spatial proliferation of freshwater scarcity. Results show rain-fed to irrigation-fed (RFtoIF) transition will result in an additional 169.6 million hectares or 22% of the total CONUS land area facing moderate or severe water scarcity. Analysis of just the 53 large urban clusters with 146 million residents shows that the transition will result in 97 million urban population facing water scarcity for at least one month per year on average versus 82 million before the irrigation expansion. Notably, none of the six large urban regions facing an increase in scarcity with RFtoIF transition are located in arid regions in part because the magnitude of impact is dependent on multiple factors including local water demand, abstractions in the river upstream, and the buffering capacity of ancillary water sources to cities. For these reasons, areas with higher population and industrialization also generally experience a relatively smaller change in scarcity than regions with lower water demand. While the exact magnitude of impacts are subject to simulation uncertainties despite efforts to exercise due diligence, the study unambiguously underscores the need for strategies aimed at boosting crop productivity to incorporate the effects on water availability throughout the entire extent of the flow networks, instead of solely focusing on the local level. The results further highlight that if irrigation expansion is poorly managed, it may increase urban water scarcity, thus also possibly increasing the likelihood of water conflict between urban and rural areas.

Transference of the embedded water, so-called virtual water, in the trade of crops among regions within a country is often neglected, leading to no information about the impacts on the water resources of exporting regions, especially if those regions are water-stressed or, worse, water-scarce. Virtual water trade, if not considered through the lens of sustainability, could lead to adverse effects on the water resources of an exporting region. Previous related studies have quantified virtual water trade among the states in the United States providing valuable insights; however, information for specific crop trade among counties, its water footprint (WF) at the county scale, the resultant virtual water flow among counties, and the sustainability assessment of those virtual water flows are lacking. In this study, we calculate the green and blue WF of cereal and milled grain products at the county level and then, using trade data, calculate the virtual water flows among the counties. Then, we assess the sustainability of the import by introducing unsustainable import fraction (UIF), which is the ratio of virtual water imported from water-scarce counties to that of total virtual water imported in the form of cereal and milled grains. Finally, we quantify the change in UIF from the 2007–2017 period. A few of the significant insights discovered through this analysis include: (i) most of the cereal and milled grains trade is occurring among neighboring counties; ii) one-third of US counties import 75% or more virtual water from water scarce regions; (iii) in 2017, Texas and Missouri were the largest importer and exporter, respectively; and (iv) the number of counties importing cereals and milled grains from water-scarce counties increased from 2007 to 2017. Recommendations on alleviating the negative effects of the unsustainable import of cereal and milled grain are provided toward the end of the discussion.

Cotton, the world's most widely cultivated fiber crop, is associated with a multitude of environmental impacts, particularly the intensive use of water resources. While previous studies have assessed cotton's water usage through the water footprint concept, they largely focused on spatial variability, leaving temporal dynamics and the issue of unsustainable water use underexplored. This global study addressed these gaps by examining both the spatial and temporal variability of cotton's water footprint and assessing the unsustainable water footprint over time. Additionally, it explored the potential of flax as a water-efficient alternative for fiber production. Using a global gridded crop model, the study simulated yield and water use of flax and cotton from 1972 to 2018 at 30 arcmin resolution. The results showed that the global average blue, green, and total water footprint of cotton decreased by 37%, 48%, and 43%, respectively, due to yield improvements driven by improved crop cultivars, fertilizers, and better water management practices, with climate playing a minor role in these reductions. Despite this, the total water footprint of cotton production increased by 5%, with the blue water footprint rising by 17%. Additionally, unsustainable blue water usage in cotton cultivation increased from 59.3 km³/y to 70.9 km³/y between 1972-1976 and 2014–2018, with 71.1% of the unsustainable water traded virtually. USA, Pakistan, and India accounted for over 60% of this unsustainable virtual water trade. Flax, with its substantially lower water footprint, emerged as a promising alternative to reduce water consumption in fiber production. These findings offer critical insights for formulating strategies to mitigate unsustainable water use in global fiber production.

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%–35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%–91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from −3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Nature-based solutions (NbSs) for water involve using or mimicking natural processes to contribute to the improved management of water. Although NbSs are gaining a significant amount of scientific attention, to ensure their wide usage for enhancing groundwater recharge, there is a need for clear documentation outlining their benefits and barriers. In this study, a systematic literature review was carried out to evaluate the application of NbSs for managing groundwater recharge. First, NbS approaches were classified into two broad groups: managed aquifer recharge (MAR) and ancillary recharge methods (ARMs). MAR includes all activities that intentionally enhance the recharge of an aquifer for later recovery, while ARMs include all the remaining NbSs wherein recharge enhancement is a secondary goal. In 50 out of 61 reviewed studies, MAR was reported to be successful in increasing recharge. However, in the remaining studies, reductions in recharge rates were reported. Most of the NbSs that failed to improve groundwater recharge were from the ARMs group. This group had little consensus among studies regarding the effectiveness of NbSs on groundwater recharge. In this study, we also identified opportunities and challenges, such as gaps in our knowledge of NbSs’ effectiveness, their assessment in long-term, cost–benefit analysis and scalability. Addressing these challenges will further enhance the efficiency of NbSs, which indeed is a promising alternative for enhancing groundwater resources.

While the water dependency of water-scarce nations is well understood, this is not the case for countries in temperate and humid climates, even though various studies have shown that many of such countries strongly rely on the import of water-intensive commodities from elsewhere. In this study we introduce a method to evaluate the sustainability and efficiency of the external water footprint (WF) of a country, with the UK as an example. We trace, quantify and map the UK’s direct and indirect water needs and assess the ‘imported water risk’ by evaluating the sustainability of the water consumption in the source regions. In addition, we assess the efficiency of the water consumption in source areas in order to identify the room for water savings. We find that half of the UK’s global blue WF—the direct and indirect consumption of ground- and surface water resources behind all commodities consumed in the UK—is located in places where the blue WF exceeds the maximum sustainable blue WF. About 55% of the unsustainable part of the UK’s blue WF is located in six countries: Spain (14%), USA (11%), Pakistan (10%), India (7%), Iran (6%), and South Africa (6%). Our analysis further shows that about half of the global consumptive WF of the UK’s direct and indirect crop consumption is inefficient, which means that consumptive WFs exceed specified WF benchmark levels. About 37% of the inefficient part of the UK’s consumptive WF is located in six countries: Indonesia (7%), Ghana (7%), India (7%), Brazil (6%), Spain (5%), and Argentina (5%). In some source countries, like Pakistan, Iran, Spain, USA and Egypt, unsustainable and inefficient blue water consumption coincide. We find that, by lowering overall consumptive WFs to benchmark levels, the global blue WF of UK crop consumption could be reduced by 19%. We discuss four strategies to mitigate imported water risk: become more self-sufficient in food; diversify the import of water-intensive commodities, favouring the sourcing from water-abundant regions; reconsider the import of water-intensive commodities from the regions that are most severely water stressed altogether; and collaborate internationally with source countries with unsustainable water use where opportunities exist to increase water productivity.

Freshwater scarcity is a growing concern, placing considerable importance on the accuracy of indicators used to characterize and map water scarcity worldwide. We improve upon past efforts by using estimates of blue water footprints (consumptive use of ground- and surface water flows) rather than water withdrawals, accounting for the flows needed to sustain critical ecological functions and by considering monthly rather than annual values. We analyzed 405 river basins for the period 1996-2005. In 201 basins with 2.67 billion inhabitants there was severe water scarcity during at least one month of the year. The ecological and economic consequences of increasing degrees of water scarcity--as evidenced by the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo), Indus, and Murray-Darling River Basins--can include complete desiccation during dry seasons, decimation of aquatic biodiversity, and substantial economic disruption.

Global demand for livestock products is rising, resulting in a growing demand for feed and potentially burdening freshwater resources to produce this feed. To offset this increased pressure on water resources, the environmental performance of livestock sector should continue to improve. Over the last few decades, product output per animal and feedstuff yields in the US have improved, but before now it was unclear to what extent these improvements influenced the water productivity (WP) of the livestock products. In this research, we estimate changes in WP of animal products from 1960 to 2016. We consider feed conversion ratios (dry matter intake per head divided by product output per head), feed composition per animal category, and estimated the water footprint of livestock production following the Water Footprint Network's Water Footprint Assessment methodology. The current WP of all livestock products appears to be much better than in 1960. The observed improvements in WPs are due to a number of factors, including increases in livestock productivity, feed conversion ratios and feed crop yields, the latter one reducing the water footprint of feed inputs. Monogastric animals (poultry and swine) have a high feed-use efficiency compared to ruminants (cattle), but ruminants consume relatively large portion of feed that is non-edible for humans. Per unit of energy content, milk has the largest WP followed by chicken and pork. Per gram of protein, poultry products (chicken meat, egg and turkey meat) have the largest WP, followed by cattle milk and pork. Beef has the smallest WP. These data provide important information that may aid the development of strategies to improve WP of the livestock sector. Keywords: Animal feed, Sustainability, Feed conversion efficiency, Water use, Water footprint

Abstract Water scarcity is a global challenge affecting billions of people worldwide. This study systematically assesses differences in the estimation of the global population exposed to water scarcity based on 7 water scarcity indicators and 11 Environmental Flow Requirements (EFR) evaluated at various spatial and temporal resolutions. All indicators show an increase in water scarcity since 1901. However, considering monthly average water scarcity estimates spatially aggregated at the basin scale found 35% less population exposed than estimates based on a distributed grid over the landscape. Estimates temporally disaggregated to consider water scarcity for at least one month a year found 50% (tenfold) larger population exposed compared to average monthly (annual) estimates. The study illustrates that estimates of the impacts of water scarcity are an artifact of how water scarcity is defined and calculated. This suggests caution is needed when relying on a single method and emphasizes the importance of considering the diversity of factors that can influence estimates of impact when assessing water scarcity.

Abstract Accurate assessment of changes in water availability with changing climate is vital for effective mitigation and adaptation. In this research, we employ a parsimonious Budyko curve method to evaluate changes in water availability under low‐ (SSP126) and high‐emission (SSP585) scenarios for 331 river basins in the contiguous United States. We also assess the relative role of changes in precipitation (∆P) and potential evapotranspiration (∆PET) with changing climate on the increase in water availability vulnerability. Results highlight that around 43% (28%) of basins are projected to experience increased vulnerability to changing climate in high‐emission (low‐emission) scenarios. Sub‐humid basins are most often impacted, while arid and semi‐arid basins exhibit lower sensitivity to changes. Intriguingly, ∆PET emerges as the dominant control on vulnerability, surpassing ∆P, particularly under SSP585 scenario. The analysis prompts water managers to focus on long‐term mitigation planning and scientists to further constraint climate and water budget forecasts in affected basins.

This study aims to explore global food security, focusing on major cereal crops across different Agroecological Zones (AEZs). By projecting cereal production under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, insights into the challenges for achieving global food security by 2050 are drawn. The study identifies 'critical' risks in countries like Chad, Sudan, Algeria, Somalia, and Namibia in Africa, parts of Central Asia and the Middle East (Saudi Arabia), western USA, and Australia, due to high water stress combined with severe production deficits. However, implementing strategic interventions, like increasing harvested area, can significantly reduce these risks, potentially leading to surplus production in some regions. The regions still under cereal production deficit with such mitigation strategies are categorized in terms of risk to food security, considering water stress and import dependency. Iran, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, Saudi Arabia, parts of Southeastern Asia are projected to face persistent cereal production deficits and high import dependency by the mid-20th century. The study underlines the necessity for water-saving technologies and effective governance to balance crop production and water use, particularly in regions experiencing water scarcity., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known conflict/competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

There is a scarcity of data on animal welfare and its impact on livelihoods to inform animal welfare initiatives in Ethiopia. Perceptions and practices of rural households toward animal welfare are influenced by socio-cultural, demographic, and agroecological factors. We conducted Community Conversations in two geographically and culturally diverse regions of Ethiopia to explore the attitudes and practices of rural households regarding animal welfare and its impact on livelihoods. Community Conversations are facilitated dialogues among rural households to explore their perceptions, practices, constraints, and needs and identify and co-create solutions to improve the welfare of their animals. We used single- and mixed-sex discussion groups to understand community members' gendered perceptions of animal welfare and influence their attitudes and practices toward gender-equitable roles in animal welfare management. In the Community Conversations, community members readily described the biological needs of their animals but there was also a good acknowledgment of the behavioral and affective state needs of animals. Identified constraints for animal welfare included feed and water shortage, limited veterinary support, and poor animal handling practices. Community members described the welfare of their animals as being intertwined with their own livelihoods and identified productive, public health, and non-economic benefits of good animal welfare. Raising awareness of animal welfare within rural communities through Community Conversations is a useful way to both identify livestock production needs as well as engage community members in making practical improvements in animal welfare. The understanding of perceptions, practices, and needs of rural households in animal welfare helps engage communities in starting behavioral change and provides insights into developing context-specific welfare improvement interventions. Community Conversations are also an effective way to feedback community voices into planning to build a bottom-up implementation of animal welfare programs., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Lemma, Doyle, Alemayehu, Mekonnen, Kumbe and Wieland.)