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Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast mod

Este capítulo pone el foco en las diferencias que existen entre hombres y mujeres en el aula de idiomas. A pesar de que contamos con abundante investigación que da cuenta de esas disimilitudes, no han sido tan estudiadas ni atendidas como otros factores del aprendizaje de lenguas. En el contexto de la enseñanza de ELE y con el objetivo de contribuir a una enseñanza más igualitaria, en consonancia con los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible de la ONU, presentamos algunas consideraciones sobre las mujeres en las clases de lenguas, a modo de estado de la cuestión. Nos detenemos en dos tipos de estudios: por un lado, aquellos de corte cuantitativo que han examinado las actitudes, motivaciones, estilos y estrategias de aprendizaje de hombres y mujeres en el aula de idiomas. Por otro, los trabajos cualitativos que sobre todo en contextos de inmersión han explorado las identidades de género en segundas lenguas. Concluimos remarcando la necesidad de conocer de qué manera nuestro alumnado se ve sujeto a cuestiones de género para poder ofrecer una educación de calidad, a la vez que animamos a investigadores y expertas a realizar estudios sobre esta cuestión en el contexto europeo., This chapter focuses on the differences among men and women in the language classroom. Although we have plenty of evidence about those differences, they have not been properly addressed by both researchers and practitioners in Applied Linguistics. Within the context of Spanish language teaching, and with the aim to contribute to a more equalitarian education in accordance with the UN sustainable development goals, we present some considerations about women in the language classroom. This study examines two kinds of studies: on the one hand, quantitative works reporting about men and women attitudes, motivations, styles, and strategies in language learning. On the other, qualitative studies exploring gender identities in second language contexts. We conclude with the need to comprehend how our students are subjected to gender issues in order to provide them with quality education. At the same time, we encourage researchers and language professionals to continue studying this topic in the context of Europe.

This paper covers the work of Domenico Scarlatti's harpsichord sonata K.33. Specifically, it addresses how it was transcribed from the harpsichord to the classical guitar. It encompasses general background information about Scarlatti, his life, and musical training. The main focus of this essay explains in great detail the process of adaptation from the keyboard to the classical guitar. It covers the chronological steps taken to comprehend a piece of music written for the keyboard and make it playable for solo guitar. The analysis of the sonata's modification and alterations show creative ways in which the guitar can be used to imitate a piece originally written for the harpsichord and the search for musical solutions. It offers specific examples of each procedure taken to accomplish this goal. The purpose of this transcription is to contribute to the repertoire of the classical guitar and shed light on the brilliant composer and musician that is Scarlatti.

This MA thesis is the explanation on transcribing guitar music. It shows how the piece were transcribed, what I have learned from spending time on the instrument, what the limitations of the instrument and how to utilize the uniqueness of the instrument, finding solutions on transcribing and how to practice for the recording. The Romance op.5 was composed by Pytor Ilyich Tchaikovsky (1840-1893), the most popular Russian composer of all time. His music has always had remarkable tunes, open-hearted melody, impressive harmonies, all of which evoke a profound emotional response. Be able to play his music on the guitar is desirable for my music path. Not only to add more another piece for guitar repertoire but also as transcribing the piece I can get closer to his music, be able feel more of his appealing harmonies which can also effect on my musical interpretation. Moreover, this piece was written from love and admirable which full of beautiful feelings. He dedicated this piece for Desiree Art6t, a Belgian opera singer who he met in 1868 in Moscow and considered to marry with. I believe that by arranging this solo piano piece not only that I can learn to transcribe music but also, I can understand more in-depth of my instrument.

En este estudio, se presenta el trabajo de investigación que gira en tomo a tres transcripciones que provienen de la obra del compositor barroco Juan Antonio Carlos de Seixas. Se trata específicamente de las sonatas 2, 3 y 71, que forman parte de una serie de 80 sonatas para instrumento de teclado. El objetivo principal se fundamenta en la adaptación de dichas sonatas de modo que sean posibles interpretarlas en la guitarra con la mayor naturalidad, así como se aborda el contexto histórico del formato de la sonata y autor seleccionado. Mediante una metodología de la investigación precisa y rigurosa, se describen los procesos a detalle de las decisiones que tomamos para resolver problemáticas a la hora de transcribir, se reflexiona sobre las diferencias físicas de los instrumentos, al igual que tratamos de preservar las obras como el compositor la creo. El resultado final demuestra a la eficiencia del instrumento y como este es capaz de recrear la música brindando un estilo sonoro inigualable. Además, añadimos repertorio con un alto valor artístico a la guitarra.

I have chosen to transcribe parts of an unpublished original contemporary piano score excerpted from the ballet "The Loon’s Gift" written by Victor John Searles, a gifted British/Canadian musician who was well known locally, but otherwise undiscovered by the international music community. "The Loon's Gift" is one of six ballets he composed in the late twentieth century. I have given the finished transcription a new title "Echos In The North" in reference to the natural habitat of the water bird Loon. This score provided me with the unique opportunity to write the very first classical guitar transcription of the original work. It also created unique challenges that tested my developing musical abilities. Choosing which sections from the original score that would sound and play well on the guitar was only the first step in a process of exploration into both the motivation and structure of the original score. Keeping the fundamental qualities of dramatic atmosphere and emotion evoked through the unique capabilities of the piano while translating them into the equally unique language of the guitar required both respect for the original work and sensitivity to musical possibilities provided by the guitar. My intent in this transcription is to manage this bilingual translation in ways that are both true to the original and authentic to the guitar.

Este trabajo analiza la evolución de las fuentes de financiación de las Organizaciones No Gubernamentales para el Desarrollo (ONGD) españolas durante el periodo 2006-2012. Para ello, estudiamos la estructura de ingresos del sector en su conjunto y de las entidades a nivel individual, constatando la importancia de la financiación pública (la denominada Ayuda Oficial al Desarrollo) sobre el conjunto de ingresos de tales organizaciones y la drástica reducción que dicho tipo de financiación experimentó entre 2010 y 2012. Profundizando en el análisis, llevamos a cabo un análisis clúster en el que estudiamos 499 observaciones anuales pertenecientes a 90 ONGD miembros de la Coordinadora de ONGD de España. Gracias a este análisis encontramos la existencia de cuatro patrones de financiación en función de la mayor o menor importancia que tengan las distintas fuentes de ingresos en las estructuras de las organizaciones (uno en el que dominan los ingresos privados, dos en lo que lo hacen los públicos, y otro en el que ingresos públicos y privados tienen similar importancia). Los resultados del análisis clúster también muestran cómo la mayor parte de las entidades (59 de las 90 ONGD de la muestra) se han mantenido impasibles ante los cambios acaecidos en su entorno, conservando una estructura de financiación dominada por fondos públicos. De esta manera, contrariamente a lo que cabría esperar, son pocas las organizaciones a las que tal disminución de financiación pública les ha llevado a buscar nuevas fuentes de ingresos. Así, pese a la variación del entorno, la inercia de la organización en su estructura de financiación dificulta o ralentiza su adaptación al cambio. Ello ha podido conducir a las organizaciones hacia una importante contracción de sus ingresos o, en algún caso de inadaptación financiera, a la desaparición de las mismas., This study analyzes the evolution of the funding sources of the Spanish Non-Governmental Organizations for Development (NGDOs) during the 2006-2012 period. To do this, we study the revenue structure of the sector as a whole and of the entities at the individual level, showing the importance that the public funding (the so-called Official Development Assistance) has on the income statement of such organizations and the sharp reduction that this type of funding experienced between 2010 and 2012. We go deeper into the analysis by carrying out a cluster analysis in which we study 499 annual observations belonging to 90 NGDOs members of the Spanish Platform of NGDOs (CONGDE). We find the existence of four funding patterns depending on the greater or lesser importance of the different sources of revenues in the structures of the organizations (one in which private funds are dominant, two in which the public ones are in the majority, and another in which public and private funding have similar importance). The results of the cluster analysis also show how most of the entities (59 of the 90 NGDOs in the sample) have remained impassive in spite of the changes in their environment, preserving a funding structure dominated by public funds. In this way, contrary to expectations, there are few organizations to which such reduction in public funding has led them to seek new sources of revenues. Thus, despite the variation of the environment, the inertia of the organization in its funding structure hinders or slows down its adaptation to change. This inertia has led organizations to a significant decline in revenues or, in some cases of financial maladjustment, to their disappearance., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO), Comunidad de Madrid, Escuela de Estudios Cooperativos, Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, TRUE, pub