Search

Ice dynamic change is the primary cause of mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, thus it is important to understand the processes driving ice-ocean interactions and the timescale on which major change can occur. Here we use satellite observations to measure a rapid increase in speed and collapse of the ice shelf fronting Cadman Glacier in the absence of surface meltwater ponding. Between November 2018 and December 2019 ice speed increased by 94 ± 4% (1.47 ± 0.6 km/yr), ice discharge increased by 0.52 ± 0.21 Gt/yr, and the calving front retreated by 8 km with dynamic thinning on grounded ice of 20.1 ± 2.6 m/yr. This change was concurrent with a positive temperature anomaly in the upper ocean, where a 400 m deep channel allowed warm water to reach Cadman Glacier driving the dynamic activation, while neighbouring Funk and Lever Glaciers were protected by bathymetric sills across their fjords. Our results show that forcing by warm ocean water can cause the rapid onset of dynamic imbalance and increased ice discharge from glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula, highlighting the region's sensitivity to future climate variability., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The Southern Ocean upper-layer freshwater balance exerts a global climatic influence by modulating density stratification and biological productivity, and hence the exchange of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean interior. It is thus important to understand and quantify the time-varying freshwater inputs, which is challenging from measurements of salinity alone. Here we use seawater oxygen isotopes from samples collected between 2016 and 2021 along a transect spanning the Scotia and northern Weddell Seas to separate the freshwater contributions from sea ice and meteoric sources. The unprecedented retreat of sea ice in 2016 is evidenced as a strong increase in sea ice melt across the northern Weddell Sea, with surface values increasing approximately two percentage points between 2016 and 2018 and column inventories increasing approximately 1 to 2 m. Surface meteoric water concentrations exceeded 4% in early 2021 close to South Georgia due to meltwater from the A68 megaberg; smaller icebergs may influence meteoric water at other times also. Both these inputs highlight the importance of a changing cryosphere for upper-ocean freshening; potential future sea ice retreats and increases in iceberg calving would enhance the impacts of these freshwater sources on the ocean and climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

The 5-year Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports (ORCHESTRA) programme and its 1-year extension ENCORE (ENCORE is the National Capability ORCHESTRA Extension) was an approximately 11-million-pound programme involving seven UK research centres that finished in March 2022. The project sought to radically improve our ability to measure, understand and predict the exchange, storage and export of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. It achieved this through a series of milestone observational campaigns in combination with model development and analysis. Twelve cruises in the Weddell Sea and South Atlantic were undertaken, along with mooring, glider and profiler deployments and aircraft missions, all contributing to measurements of internal ocean and air-sea heat and carbon fluxes. Numerous forward and adjoint numerical experiments were developed and supported by the analysis of coupled climate models. The programme has resulted in over 100 peer-reviewed publications to date as well as significant impacts on climate assessments and policy and science coordination groups. Here, we summarize the research highlights of the programme and assess the progress achieved by ORCHESTRA/ENCORE and the questions it raises for the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

The Southern Ocean greatly contributes to the regulation of the global climate by controlling important heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. Rates of climate change on decadal timescales are therefore impacted by oceanic processes taking place in the Southern Ocean, yet too little is known about these processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent processes at scales that are not well captured in current Earth system models. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate programme was launched to address this knowledge gap, with the overall objective to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key physical processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. Here, we provide a brief overview of the programme, as well as a summary of some of the scientific progress achieved during its first half. Advances range from new evidence of the importance of specific processes in Southern Ocean ventilation rate (e.g. storm-induced turbulence, sea-ice meltwater fronts, wind-induced gyre circulation, dense shelf water formation and abyssal mixing) to refined descriptions of the physical changes currently ongoing in the Southern Ocean and of their link with global climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Oceanographic changes adjacent to Antarctica have global climatic and ecological impacts. However, this is the most challenging place in the world to obtain marine data due to its remoteness and inhospitable nature, especially in winter. Here, we present more than 2000 Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) profiles and associated water sample data collected with (almost uniquely) full year-round coverage from the British Antarctic Survey Rothera Research Station at the west Antarctic Peninsula. Sampling is conducted from a small boat or a sled, depending on the sea ice conditions. When conditions allow, sampling is twice weekly in summer and weekly in winter, with profiling to nominally 500 m and with discrete water samples taken at 15 m water depth. Daily observations are made of the sea ice conditions in the area. This paper presents the first 20 years of data collection, 1997-2017. This time series represents a unique and valuable resource for investigations of the high-latitude ocean's role in climate change, ocean/ice interactions, and marine biogeochemistry and carbon drawdown., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Ocean mixing around Antarctica exerts key influences on glacier dynamics and ice shelf retreats, sea ice, and marine productivity, thus affecting global sea level and climate. The conventional paradigm is that this is dominated by winds, tides, and buoyancy forcing. Direct observations from the Antarctic Peninsula demonstrate that glacier calving triggers internal tsunamis, the breaking of which drives vigorous mixing. Being widespread and frequent, these internal tsunamis are at least comparable to winds, and much more important than tides, in driving regional shelf mixing. They are likely relevant everywhere that marine-terminating glaciers calve, including Greenland and across the Arctic. Calving frequency may change with higher ocean temperatures, suggesting possible shifts to internal tsunamigenesis and mixing in a warming climate.

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a hotspot for environmental change and has a strong environmental gradient from North to South. Here, for the first time we used adult individuals of the bivalve Aequiyoldia eightsii to evaluate large-scale spatial variation in the biochemical composition (measured as lipid, protein and fatty acids) and energy content, as a proxy for nutritional condition, of three populations along the WAP: O'Higgins Research Station in the north (63.3°S), Yelcho Research Station in mid-WAP (64.9°S) and Rothera Research Station further south (67.6°S). The results reveal significantly higher quantities of lipids (L), proteins (P), energy (E) and total fatty acids (FA) in the northern population (O'Higgins) (L: 8.33 ± 1.32%; P: 22.34 ± 3.16%; E: 171.53 ± 17.70 Joules; FA: 16.33 ± 0.98 mg g) than in the mid-WAP population (Yelcho) (L: 6.23 ± 0.84%; P: 18.63 ± 1.17%; E: 136.67 ± 7.08 Joules; FA: 10.93 ± 0.63 mg g) and southern population (Rothera) (L: 4.60 ± 0.51%; P: 13.11 ± 0.98%; E: 98.37 ± 5.67 Joules; FA: 7.58 ± 0.48 mg g). We hypothesize these differences in the nutritional condition could be related to a number of biological and environmental characteristics. Our results can be interpreted as a consequence of differences in phenology at each location; differences in somatic and gametogenic growth rhythms. Contrasting environmental conditions throughout the WAP such as seawater temperature, quantity and quality of food from both planktonic and sediment sources, likely have an effect on the metabolism and nutritional intake of this species., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© 2021 Bascur et al.)

The Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean is the world's main production site of Antarctic Bottom Water, a water-mass that is ventilated at the ocean surface before sinking and entraining older water-masses-ultimately replenishing the abyssal global ocean. In recent decades, numerous attempts at estimating the rates of ventilation and overturning of Antarctic Bottom Water in this region have led to a strikingly broad range of results, with water transport-based calculations (8.4-9.7 Sv) yielding larger rates than tracer-based estimates (3.7-4.9 Sv). Here, we reconcile these conflicting views by integrating transport- and tracer-based estimates within a common analytical framework, in which bottom water formation processes are explicitly quantified. We show that the layer of Antarctic Bottom Water denser than 28.36 kg m[Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] is exported northward at a rate of 8.4 ± 0.7 Sv, composed of 4.5 ± 0.3 Sv of well-ventilated Dense Shelf Water, and 3.9 ± 0.5 Sv of old Circumpolar Deep Water entrained into cascading plumes. The majority, but not all, of the Dense Shelf Water (3.4 ± 0.6 Sv) is generated on the continental shelves of the Weddell Sea. Only 55% of AABW exported from the region is well ventilated and thus draws down heat and carbon into the deep ocean. Our findings unify traditionally contrasting views of Antarctic Bottom Water production in the Atlantic sector, and define a baseline, process-discerning target for its realistic representation in climate models.

The relative flow of carbon through the viral shunt and the microbial loop is a pivotal factor controlling the contribution of secondary production to the food web and to rates of nutrient remineralization and respiration. The current study examines the significance of these processes in the coastal waters of the Antarctic during the productive austral summer months. Throughout the study a general trend towards lower bacterioplankton and heterotrophic nanoflagellate (HNF) abundances was observed, whereas virioplankton concentration increased. A corresponding decline of HNF grazing rates and shift towards viral production, indicative of viral infection, was measured. Carbon flow mediated by HNF grazing decreased by more than half from 5.7 µg C L -1 day -1 on average in December and January to 2.4 µg C L -1 day -1 in February. Conversely, carbon flow through the viral shunt increased substantially over the study from on average 0.9 µg C L -1 day -1 in December to 7.6 µg C L -1 day -1 in February. This study shows that functioning of the coastal Antarctic microbial community varied considerably over the productive summer months. In early summer, the system favors transfer of matter and energy to higher trophic levels via the microbial loop, however towards the end of summer carbon flow is redirected towards the viral shunt, causing a switch towards more recycling and therefore increased respiration and regeneration.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) dominates the open-ocean circulation of the Southern Ocean, and both isolates and connects the Southern Ocean biodiversity. However, the impact on biological processes of other Southern Ocean currents is less clear. Adjacent to the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), the ACC flows offshore in a northeastward direction, whereas the Antarctic Peninsula Coastal Current (APCC) follows a complex circulation pattern along the coast, with topographically influenced deflections depending on the area. Using genomic data, we estimated genetic structure and migration rates between populations of the benthic bivalve Aequiyoldia eightsii from the shallows of southern South America and the WAP to test the role of the ACC and the APCC in its dispersal. We found strong genetic structure across the ACC (between southern South America and Antarctica) and moderate structure between populations of the WAP. Migration rates along the WAP were consistent with the APCC being important for species dispersal. Along with supporting current knowledge about ocean circulation models at the WAP, migration from the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula to the Bellingshausen Sea highlights the complexities of Southern Ocean circulation. This study provides novel biological evidence of a role of the APCC as a driver of species dispersal and highlights the power of genomic data for aiding in the understanding of the influence of complex oceanographic processes in shaping the population structure of marine species., Competing Interests: We declare we have no competing interests., (© 2020 The Authors.)

The Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet is currently experiencing sustained and accelerating loss of ice. Determining when these changes were initiated and identifying the main drivers is hampered by the short instrumental record (1992 to present). Here we present a 6,250 year record of glacial discharge based on the oxygen isotope composition of diatoms (δ 18 O diatom ) from a marine core located at the north-eastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that glacial discharge - sourced primarily from ice shelf and iceberg melting along the eastern Antarctic Peninsula - remained largely stable between ~6,250 to 1,620 cal. yr BP, with a slight increase in variability until ~720 cal. yr. BP. An increasing trend in glacial discharge occurs after 550 cal. yr BP (A.D. 1400), reaching levels unprecedented during the past 6,250 years after 244 cal. yr BP (A.D. 1706). A marked acceleration in the rate of glacial discharge is also observed in the early part of twentieth century (after A.D. 1912). Enhanced glacial discharge, particularly after the 1700s is linked to a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We argue that a positive SAM drove stronger westerly winds, atmospheric warming and surface ablation on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula whilst simultaneously entraining more warm water into the Weddell Gyre, potentially increasing melting on the undersides of ice shelves. A possible implication of our data is that ice shelves in this region have been thinning for at least ~300 years, potentially predisposing them to collapse under intensified anthropogenic warming.

Global climate is critically sensitive to physical and biogeochemical dynamics in the subpolar Southern Ocean, since it is here that deep, carbon-rich layers of the world ocean outcrop and exchange carbon with the atmosphere. Here, we present evidence that the conventional framework for the subpolar Southern Ocean carbon cycle, which attributes a dominant role to the vertical overturning circulation and shelf-sea processes, fundamentally misrepresents the drivers of regional carbon uptake. Observations in the Weddell Gyre-a key representative region of the subpolar Southern Ocean-show that the rate of carbon uptake is set by an interplay between the Gyre's horizontal circulation and the remineralization at mid-depths of organic carbon sourced from biological production in the central gyre. These results demonstrate that reframing the carbon cycle of the subpolar Southern Ocean is an essential step to better define its role in past and future climate change.

The overturning circulation of the global ocean is critically shaped by deep-ocean mixing, which transforms cold waters sinking at high latitudes into warmer, shallower waters. The effectiveness of mixing in driving this transformation is jointly set by two factors: the intensity of turbulence near topography and the rate at which well-mixed boundary waters are exchanged with the stratified ocean interior. Here, we use innovative observations of a major branch of the overturning circulation-an abyssal boundary current in the Southern Ocean-to identify a previously undocumented mixing mechanism, by which deep-ocean waters are efficiently laundered through intensified near-boundary turbulence and boundary-interior exchange. The linchpin of the mechanism is the generation of submesoscale dynamical instabilities by the flow of deep-ocean waters along a steep topographic boundary. As the conditions conducive to this mode of mixing are common to many abyssal boundary currents, our findings highlight an imperative for its representation in models of oceanic overturning., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Biogenic dimethylsulfide (DMS) is a significant contributor to sulfur flux from the oceans to the atmosphere, and the most significant source of aerosol non sea-salt sulfate (NSS-SO 4 2- ), a key regulator of global climate. Here we present the longest running time-series of DMS-water (DMS W ) concentrations in the world, obtained at the Rothera Time-Series (RaTS) station in Ryder Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). We demonstrate the first ever evaluation of interseasonal and interannual variability in DMS W and associated flux to the atmosphere from the Antarctic coastal zone and determine the scale and importance of the region as a significant source of DMS. Impacts of climate modes such as El Niňo/Southern Oscillation are evaluated. Maximum DMS W concentrations occurred annually in January and were primarily associated with sea-ice break-up. These concentrations resulted in extremely high (up to 968 µmol m -2 d -1 ) DMS flux over short timescales, which are not parameterised in global-scale DMS climatologies. Calculated DMS flux stayed above the aerosol nucleation threshold of 2.5 µmol m -2 d -1 for 60% of the year. Overall, using flux determinations from this study, the total flux of DMS-sulfur from the Austral Polar Province (APLR) was 1.1 Tg sulfur yr -1 , more than double the figure suggested by the most recent DMS climatologies.

Palmer Deep (PD) is one of several regional hotspots of biological productivity along the inner shelf of the West Antarctic Peninsula. The proximity of hotspots to shelf-crossing deep troughs has led to the 'canyon hypothesis', which proposes that circumpolar deep water flowing shoreward along the canyons is upwelled on the inner shelf, carrying nutrients including iron (Fe) to surface waters, maintaining phytoplankton blooms. We present here full-depth profiles of dissolved and particulate Fe and manganese (Mn) from eight stations around PD, sampled in January and early February of 2015 and 2016, allowing the first detailed evaluation of Fe sources to the area's euphotic zone. We show that upwelling of deep water does not control Fe flux to the surface; instead, shallow sediment-sourced Fe inputs are transported horizontally from surrounding coastlines, creating strong vertical gradients of dissolved Fe within the upper 100 m that supply this limiting nutrient to the local ecosystem. The supply of bioavailable Fe is, therefore, not significantly related to the canyon transport of deep water. Near shore time-series samples reveal that local glacial meltwater appears to be an important Mn source but, surprisingly, is not a large direct Fe input to this biological hotspot.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

The spatial distribution, biogeochemical cycling and external sources of dissolved iron and dissolved manganese (DFe and DMn) were investigated in Ryder Bay, a small coastal embayment of the West Antarctic Peninsula, during Austral summer (2013 and 2014). Dissolved concentrations were measured throughout the water column at 11 stations within Ryder Bay. The concentration ranges of DFe and DMn were large, between 0.58 and 32.7 nM, and between 0.18 and 26.2 nM, respectively, exhibiting strong gradients from the surface to the bottom. Surface concentrations of DFe and DMn were higher than concentrations reported for the Southern Ocean and coastal Antarctic waters, and extremely high concentrations were detected in deep water. Glacial meltwater and shallow sediments are likely to be the main sources of DFe and DMn in the euphotic zone, while lateral advection associated with local sediment resuspension and vertical mixing are significant sources for intermediate and deep waters. During summer, vertical mixing of intermediate and deep waters and sediment resuspension occurring from Marguerite Trough to Ryder Bay are thought to be amplified by a series of overflows at the sills, enhancing the input of Fe and Mn from bottom sediment and increasing their concentrations up to the euphotic layer.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where periods of strong warming have caused significant changes in the marine ecosystem and food-web processes. Tight coupling between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels implies that the coastal WAP is a bottom-up controlled system, where changes in phytoplankton dynamics may largely impact other food-web components. Here, we analysed the inter-decadal time series of year-round chlorophyll- a (Chl) collected from three stations along the coastal WAP: Carlini Station at Potter Cove (PC) on King George Island, Palmer Station on Anvers Island and Rothera Station on Adelaide Island. There were trends towards increased phytoplankton biomass at Carlini Station (PC) and Palmer Station, while phytoplankton biomass declined significantly at Rothera Station over the studied period. The impacts of two relevant climate modes to the WAP, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, on winter and spring phytoplankton biomass appear to be different among the three sampling stations, suggesting an important role of local-scale forcing than large-scale forcing on phytoplankton dynamics at each station. The inter-annual variability of seasonal bloom progression derived from considering all three stations together captured ecologically meaningful, seasonally co-occurring bloom patterns which were primarily constrained by water-column stability strength. Our findings highlight a coupled link between phytoplankton and physical and climate dynamics along the coastal WAP, which may improve our understanding of overall WAP food-web responses to climate change and variability.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

The Southern Ocean is a hotspot of the climate-relevant organic sulfur compound dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Spatial and temporal variability in DMS concentration is higher than in any other oceanic region, especially in the marginal ice zone. During a one-week expedition across the continental shelf of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), from the shelf break into Marguerite Bay, in January 2015, spatial heterogeneity of DMS and its precursor dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) was studied and linked with environmental conditions, including sea-ice melt events. Concentrations of sulfur compounds, particulate organic carbon (POC) and chlorophyll a in the surface waters varied by a factor of 5-6 over the entire transect. DMS and DMSP concentrations were an order of magnitude higher than currently inferred in climatologies for the WAP region. Particulate DMSP concentrations were correlated most strongly with POC and the abundance of haptophyte algae within the phytoplankton community, which, in turn, was linked with sea-ice melt. The strong sea-ice signal in the distribution of DMS(P) implies that DMS(P) production is likely to decrease with ongoing reductions in sea-ice cover along the WAP. This has implications for feedback processes on the region's climate system.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

Glacial meltwater discharge from Antarctica is a key influence on the marine environment, impacting ocean circulation, sea level and productivity of the pelagic and benthic ecosystems. The responses elicited depend strongly on the characteristics of the meltwater releases, including timing, spatial structure and geochemical composition. Here we use isotopic tracers to reveal the time-varying pattern of meltwater during a discharge event from the Fourcade Glacier into Potter Cove, northern Antarctic Peninsula. The discharge is strongly dependent on local air temperature, and accumulates into an extremely thin, buoyant layer at the surface. This layer showed evidence of elevated turbidity, and responded rapidly to changes in atmospherically driven circulation to generate a strongly pulsed outflow from the cove to the broader ocean. These characteristics contrast with those further south along the Peninsula, where strong glacial frontal ablation is driven oceanographically by intrusions of warm deep waters from offshore. The Fourcade Glacier switched very recently to being land-terminating; if retreat rates elsewhere along the Peninsula remain high and glacier termini progress strongly landward, the structure and impact of the freshwater discharges are likely to increasingly resemble the patterns elucidated here.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Authors.)

The West Antarctic Peninsula shelf is a region of high seasonal primary production which supports a large and productive food web, where macronutrients and inorganic carbon are sourced primarily from intrusions of warm saline Circumpolar Deep Water. We examined the cross-shelf modification of this water mass during mid-summer 2015 to understand the supply of nutrients and carbon to the productive surface ocean, and their subsequent uptake and cycling. We show that nitrate, phosphate, silicic acid and inorganic carbon are progressively enriched in subsurface waters across the shelf, contrary to cross-shelf reductions in heat, salinity and density. We use nutrient stoichiometric and isotopic approaches to invoke remineralization of organic matter, including nitrification below the euphotic surface layer, and dissolution of biogenic silica in deeper waters and potentially shelf sediment porewaters, as the primary drivers of cross-shelf enrichments. Regenerated nitrate and phosphate account for a significant proportion of the total pools of these nutrients in the upper ocean, with implications for the seasonal carbon sink. Understanding nutrient and carbon dynamics in this region now will inform predictions of future biogeochemical changes in the context of substantial variability and ongoing changes in the physical environment.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'., (© 2018 The Authors.)

In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual-based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari . Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii , which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1,500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem-level management.

An 8-year time-series in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) with an approximately weekly sampling frequency was used to elucidate changes in virioplankton abundance and their drivers in this climatically sensitive region. Virioplankton abundances at the coastal WAP show a pronounced seasonal cycle with interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the summer maxima. Bacterioplankton abundance is the most influential driving factor of the virioplankton, and exhibit closely coupled dynamics. Sea ice cover and duration predetermine levels of phytoplankton stock and thus, influence virioplankton by dictating the substrates available to the bacterioplankton. However, variations in the composition of the phytoplankton community and particularly the prominence of Diatoms inferred from silicate drawdown, drive interannual differences in the magnitude of the virioplankton bloom; likely again mediated through changes in the bacterioplankton. Their findings suggest that future warming within the WAP will cause changes in sea ice that will influence viruses and their microbial hosts through changes in the timing, magnitude and composition of the phytoplankton bloom. Thus, the flow of matter and energy through the viral shunt may be decreased with consequences for the Antarctic food web and element cycling., (© 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In recent decades, hundreds of glaciers draining the Antarctic Peninsula (63° to 70°S) have undergone systematic and progressive change. These changes are widely attributed to rapid increases in regional surface air temperature, but it is now clear that this cannot be the sole driver. Here, we identify a strong correspondence between mid-depth ocean temperatures and glacier-front changes along the ~1000-kilometer western coastline. In the south, glaciers that terminate in warm Circumpolar Deep Water have undergone considerable retreat, whereas those in the far northwest, which terminate in cooler waters, have not. Furthermore, a mid-ocean warming since the 1990s in the south is coincident with widespread acceleration of glacier retreat. We conclude that changes in ocean-induced melting are the primary cause of retreat for glaciers in this region., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Understanding the key drivers of population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for the effective management of natural resources. Although several different approaches to evaluating connectivity have been used, they are rarely integrated quantitatively. Here, we use a 'seascape genetics' approach, by combining oceanographic modelling and microsatellite analyses, to understand the dominant influences on the population genetic structure of two Antarctic fishes with contrasting life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. The close accord between the model projections and empirical genetic structure demonstrated that passive dispersal during the planktonic early life stages is the dominant influence on patterns and extent of genetic structuring in both species. The shorter planktonic phase of C. gunnari restricts direct transport of larvae between distant populations, leading to stronger regional differentiation. By contrast, geographic distance did not affect differentiation in N. rossii, whose longer larval period promotes long-distance dispersal. Interannual variability in oceanographic flows strongly influenced the projected genetic structure, suggesting that shifts in circulation patterns due to climate change are likely to impact future genetic connectivity and opportunities for local adaptation, resilience and recovery from perturbations. Further development of realistic climate models is required to fully assess such potential impacts.

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding the demographic response of free-living animal populations to different drivers is the first step towards reliable prediction of population trends. Penguins have exhibited dramatic declines in population size, and many studies have linked this to bottom-up processes altering the abundance of prey species. The effects of individual traits have been considered to a lesser extent, and top-down regulation through predation has been largely overlooked due to the difficulties in empirically measuring this at sea where it usually occurs. For 10 years (2003-2012), macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) were marked with subcutaneous electronic transponder tags and re-encountered using an automated gateway system fitted at the entrance to the colony. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling to identify the different drivers influencing survival rates and a sensitivity analysis to assess their relative importance across different life stages. Survival rates were low and variable during the fledging year (mean = 0·33), increasing to much higher levels from age 1 onwards (mean = 0·89). We show that survival of macaroni penguins is driven by a combination of individual quality, top-down predation pressure and bottom-up environmental forces. The relative importance of these covariates was age specific. During the fledging year, survival rates were most sensitive to top-down predation pressure, followed by individual fledging mass, and finally bottom-up environmental effects. In contrast, birds older than 1 year showed a similar response to bottom-up environmental effects and top-down predation pressure. We infer from our results that macaroni penguins will most likely be negatively impacted by an increase in the local population size of giant petrels. Furthermore, this population is, at least in the short term, likely to be positively influenced by local warming. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of considering multiple causal effects across different life stages when examining the survival rates of seabirds., (© 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.)

The densest waters in the Atlantic overturning circulation are sourced at the periphery of Antarctica, especially the Weddell Sea, and flow northward via routes that involve crossing the complex bathymetry of the Scotia Arc. Recent observations of significant warming of these waters along much of the length of the Atlantic have highlighted the need to identify and understand the time-varying formation and export processes, and the controls on their properties and flows. Here, we review recent developments in understanding of the processes that control the changing flux of water through the main export route from the Weddell Sea into the Scotia Sea, and the transformations of the waters within the Scotia Sea and environs. We also present a synopsis of recent findings that relate to the climatic change of dense water properties within the Weddell Sea itself, in the context of known Atlantic-scale changes. Among the most significant findings are the discovery that the warming of waters exported from the Weddell Sea has been accompanied by a significant freshening, and that the episodic nature of the overflow into the Scotia Sea is markedly wind-controlled and can lead to significantly enhanced abyssal stratification. Key areas for focusing future research effort are outlined., (© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)

Full-depth measurements of δ(18)O from 2008 to 2010 enclosing the Weddell Gyre in the Southern Ocean are used to investigate the regional freshwater budget. Using complementary salinity, nutrients and oxygen data, a four-component mass balance was applied to quantify the relative contributions of meteoric water (precipitation/glacial input), sea-ice melt and saline (oceanic) sources. Combination of freshwater fractions with velocity fields derived from a box inverse analysis enabled the estimation of gyre-scale budgets of both freshwater types, with deep water exports found to dominate the budget. Surface net sea-ice melt and meteoric contributions reach 1.8% and 3.2%, respectively, influenced by the summer sampling period, and -1.7% and +1.7% at depth, indicative of a dominance of sea-ice production over melt and a sizable contribution of shelf waters to deep water mass formation. A net meteoric water export of approximately 37 mSv is determined, commensurate with local estimates of ice sheet outflow and precipitation, and the Weddell Gyre is estimated to be a region of net sea-ice production. These results constitute the first synoptic benchmarking of sea-ice and meteoric exports from the Weddell Gyre, against which future change associated with an accelerating hydrological cycle, ocean climate change and evolving Antarctic glacial mass balance can be determined., (© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)

Diapycnal mixing (across density surfaces) is an important process in the global ocean overturning circulation. Mixing in the interior of most of the ocean, however, is thought to have a magnitude just one-tenth of that required to close the global circulation by the downward mixing of less dense waters. Some of this deficit is made up by intense near-bottom mixing occurring in restricted 'hot-spots' associated with rough ocean-floor topography, but it is not clear whether the waters at mid-depth, 1,000 to 3,000 metres, are returned to the surface by cross-density mixing or by along-density flows. Here we show that diapycnal mixing of mid-depth (∼1,500 metres) waters undergoes a sustained 20-fold increase as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current flows through the Drake Passage, between the southern tip of South America and Antarctica. Our results are based on an open-ocean tracer release of trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride. We ascribe the increased mixing to turbulence generated by the deep-reaching Antarctic Circumpolar Current as it flows over rough bottom topography in the Drake Passage. Scaled to the entire circumpolar current, the mixing we observe is compatible with there being a southern component to the global overturning in which about 20 sverdrups (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) upwell in the Southern Ocean, with cross-density mixing contributing a significant fraction (20 to 30 per cent) of this total, and the remainder upwelling along constant-density surfaces. The great majority of the diapycnal flux is the result of interaction with restricted regions of rough ocean-floor topography.

Antarctic coastal waters undergo major physical alterations during summer. Increased temperatures induce sea-ice melting and glacial melt water input, leading to strong stratification of the upper water column. We investigated the composition of micro-eukaryotic and bacterial communities in Ryder Bay, Antarctic Peninsula, during and after summertime melt water stratification, applying community fingerprinting (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) and sequencing analysis of partial 18S and 16S rRNA genes. Community fingerprinting of the eukaryotic community revealed two major patterns, coinciding with a period of melt water stratification, followed by a period characterized by regular wind-induced breakdown of surface stratification. During the first stratified period, we observed depth-related differences in eukaryotic fingerprints while differences in bacterial fingerprints were weak. Wind-induced breakdown of the melt water layer caused a shift in the eukaryotic community from an Actinocyclus sp.- to a Thalassiosira sp.-dominated community. In addition, a distinct transition in the bacterial community was found, but with a few days' delay, suggesting a response to the changes in the eukaryotic community rather than to the mixing event itself. Sequence analysis revealed a shift from an Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria to a Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides-dominated community under mixed conditions. Our results show that melt water stratification and the transition to nonstabilized Antarctic surface waters may have an impact not only on micro-eukaryotic but also bacterial community composition., (© 2011 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate change will alter marine ecosystems; however, the complexity of the food webs, combined with chronic undersampling, constrains efforts to predict their future and to optimally manage and protect marine resources. Sustained observations at the West Antarctic Peninsula show that in this region, rapid environmental change has coincided with shifts in the food web, from its base up to apex predators. New strategies will be required to gain further insight into how the marine climate system has influenced such changes and how it will do so in the future. Robotic networks, satellites, ships, and instruments mounted on animals and ice will collect data needed to improve numerical models that can then be used to study the future of polar ecosystems as climate change progresses.

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1oC over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.

The Scotia Sea ecosystem is a major component of the circumpolar Southern Ocean system, where productivity and predator demand for prey are high. The eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and waters from the Weddell-Scotia Confluence dominate the physics of the Scotia Sea, leading to a strong advective flow, intense eddy activity and mixing. There is also strong seasonality, manifest by the changing irradiance and sea ice cover, which leads to shorter summers in the south. Summer phytoplankton blooms, which at times can cover an area of more than 0.5 million km2, probably result from the mixing of micronutrients into surface waters through the flow of the ACC over the Scotia Arc. This production is consumed by a range of species including Antarctic krill, which are the major prey item of large seabird and marine mammal populations. The flow of the ACC is steered north by the Scotia Arc, pushing polar water to lower latitudes, carrying with it krill during spring and summer, which subsidize food webs around South Georgia and the northern Scotia Arc. There is also marked interannual variability in winter sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures that is linked to southern hemisphere-scale climate processes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This variation affects regional primary and secondary production and influences biogeochemical cycles. It also affects krill population dynamics and dispersal, which in turn impacts higher trophic level predator foraging, breeding performance and population dynamics. The ecosystem has also been highly perturbed as a result of harvesting over the last two centuries and significant ecological changes have also occurred in response to rapid regional warming during the second half of the twentieth century. This combination of historical perturbation and rapid regional change highlights that the Scotia Sea ecosystem is likely to show significant change over the next two to three decades, which may result in major ecological shifts.

The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest rates of regional climate change on Earth, resulting in the collapse of ice shelves, the retreat of glaciers and the exposure of new terrestrial habitat. In the nearby oceanic system, winter sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has decreased in extent by 10% per decade, and shortened in seasonal duration. Surface waters have warmed by more than 1 K since the 1950s, and the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has also warmed. Of the changes observed in the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region to date, alterations in winter sea ice dynamics are the most likely to have had a direct impact on the marine fauna, principally through shifts in the extent and timing of habitat for ice-associated biota. Warming of seawater at depths below ca 100 m has yet to reach the levels that are biologically significant. Continued warming, or a change in the frequency of the flooding of CDW onto the WAP continental shelf may, however, induce sublethal effects that influence ecological interactions and hence food-web operation. The best evidence for recent changes in the ecosystem may come from organisms which record aspects of their population dynamics in their skeleton (such as molluscs or brachiopods) or where ecological interactions are preserved (such as in encrusting biota of hard substrata). In addition, a southwards shift of marine isotherms may induce a parallel migration of some taxa similar to that observed on land. The complexity of the Southern Ocean food web and the nonlinear nature of many interactions mean that predictions based on short-term studies of a small number of species are likely to be misleading.

Signals in sea-level or, more properly, sub-surface pressure (SSP; sea-level corrected for the inverse barometer effect) are expected to propagate rapidly along the continental slope due to the effect of sloping topography on wave modes, resulting in strongly correlated SSP over long-distances. Observations of such correlations around the Arctic and Antarctic are briefly reviewed, and then extended using satellite altimetry to the rest of the global continental slope. It is shown that such long-distance correlations are common, especially in extra-tropical regions. Simple correlations from altimetry cannot, however, establish the wave speed, or whether waves are responsible for the correlations as opposed to large-scale coherence in the forcing. A case study around South America is used to highlight some of the complications, and is found to strengthen the case for the importance of wave modes in such long-distance SSP coherence, although more detailed in situ data are required to resolve the cause of the correlations.