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Accurate cost estimates are vital to sustaining Navy Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC) operational forces. Currently, NECC needs a method to assess the accuracy of future cost estimates that will not disrupt its existing cost estimation process during the POM cycle. Accuracy is the sole metric used in this study to analyze and assess the effectiveness of a cost estimate. This research uses statistical techniques to assess the cost estimate’s accuracy, including single variable linear regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and a proportional scale-down model. The sample of sustainment cost data spans from FY 2016 to 2021. The point estimates from the regression model revealed that the total aggregate cost decreases by just under $16.6 million in constant year 2018 dollars (CY18$) each fiscal year. I applied the point estimate and standard error to the Monte Carlo simulation to produce a normal probability distribution with a range of possible outcomes (i.e., probability of occurrence linked to each value within that range). For the FY2025 scenario simulation, the mean value representing the most likely estimate is $303,649,744 (CY18$), and the standard deviation is $7,767,962 (CY18$). The proportional scale factor model breaks down the aggregate estimate to a lower level of programmatic detail for additional analysis. Applying statistical techniques to the existing process will help ensure that operational forces receive sufficient resources to accomplish the mission., NPS Naval Research Program, Major, United States Marine Corps, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In late 2021, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin directed expanded financial readiness resources for all Service members. Part of this provision included developing a financial assessment for Service members to help them assess their overall financial well-being and develop strategies to manage their financial affairs. What was missing from this guidance was a provision for an initial accession assessment to provide a baseline for each Service member. Without this baseline data, there is no way to track the improvement of Service members’ financial readiness over time, or to assess the effectiveness of financial literacy education programs. This thesis reviews National and Defense policy, from United States Code to Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Armed Services’ policies. The review identified gaps in these policies related to requirements to collect data for the purpose of assessing the performance of and improving the effectiveness of financial literacy education programs. Neither the United States Code nor the Department of Defense and Service policies require the collection of baseline data. The product of this thesis is a financial readiness screening matrix, which assesses the (1) financial literacy, (2) debt-to-prospective income ratio, and (3) credit score of initial assessment candidates. The recommendation is for the Department of Defense to adopt this model and initiate a baseline data capture program., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The increasing competition from China and the resurgence of Russian aggression has emphasized the need for innovation. The naval construction force (NCF) provides general engineering to the United States Navy and similarly needs to innovate to remain relevant and provide value to the warfighter. Innovation can be categorized as small incremental improvements (exploitation) or major disruptive shifts (exploration). This paper looks to define what exploitation and exploration mean to the NCF and what intangible assets and resources will be required to meet those innovation goals. This paper uses principles from literature in business academia and applies them to the research questions to establish a best practice recommendation for the NCF. In order to apply rigor to the paper, it uses metrics of effectiveness to determine which approach to innovation provides the greatest value to the Navy. Based on an evaluation of five measures of effectiveness, the NCF would be best served by pursuing the exploration approach to innovation. To do this, the NCF should create a dedicated Development Company to develop and validate new concepts for wider adoption., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Incentives matter. Retirement savings after a lifetime of service are arguably the single largest windfall that most military members will ever see; yet curiously, estimating their worth as a labor incentive seems distant and obscure. This thesis quantifies Australian military retirement savings in both the legacy-defined benefit scheme (MilitarySuper) and the replacement-defined contribution scheme (ADFSuper). Comparative retirement savings were generated under different financial market conditions and for different rank cohorts. This research finds that over a lifetime of service, even modest market growth is sufficient for ADFSuper to significantly exceed the maximum returns possible in MilitarySuper. However, the range of possible solutions is wide, albeit dependent only on a few variables. Conversely, MilitarySuper’s range of outcomes is narrower, delivering greater certainty to members. However, it is more strongly impacted by factors exogenous to both the employee and the employer. This makes making modeling MilitarySuper more complex and the task of communicating its benefits more difficult. While the benefits of ADFSuper are readily communicable, the scheme does constitute a greater risk exposure for the member but not for the employer. The exact nature of this risk may be poorly understood by members of both schemes. Finally, this thesis postulates the effects that distant and obscure incentives may have on military recruitment and retention.

In 2021, the Government Accountability Office reported the U.S. Navy’s fatigue management failure to Congress. Understanding the economic costs of inadequate sleep provides an avenue to achieving fatigue management goals. This study aims to determine the economic costs of impaired productivity due to insufficient sleep on U.S. Navy shipboard operations. Utilizing sleep duration data collected by the Naval Postgraduate School Crew Endurance Team and a RAND sleep study, we assessed working time lost in U.S. Navy shipboard operations. We discovered that Sailors sleeping fewer than 6 hours per day lost three underway days more per year and Sailors sleeping 6 to 7 hours per day lost two underway days more per year compared to the population of Sailors receiving sufficient sleep of 7 to 9 hours per day. Correlating the working time lost to military personnel costs, we determined that a fleet sleep average of 6.5 hours per day yields 137,997 working days lost at a cost of $31.9 million. The results indicate that insufficient sleep is not only a detriment to the mission but to the budget of the Department of the Navy. Further research is necessary to explore limitations that contribute to the cumulative financial burden of insufficient sleep., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Engineering Duty Officers (EDOs) perform critical duties to support the entire sequence of ship building and maintenance for the U.S. Navy. The desire for cost savings, timely execution, and increased efficiency in ship maintenance has warranted the need to evaluate the current fundamental leadership and professional development for EDOs. Several alternatives are available; however, each generates a direct net financial burden. To support decision-makers on shaping the education, training, and development of EDOs, this thesis examines net direct costs on two hypothetical adjustments of the current typical EDO development path to ensure successful command: expanded business acumen and improved talent management. Specifically, using a cost-effectiveness analysis framework and a set of financial management tools, this thesis estimates direct net costs associated with adding business acumen training at Naval Postgraduate School, EDO Basic School, and EDO Senior Course/Advanced Management Program. In addition, this thesis estimates direct net costs associated with adding an additional detailer and adding a retention bonus like the Surface Warfare Officer bonus into the EDO development path., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Retention initiatives play a crucial role in maintaining combat-ready forces. Retention has become a pressing issue due to the declining interest among individuals to join the military, the low unemployment rate, and the current labor market’s attractive compensation packages for critical skills. This thesis compares military and civilian pay within similar occupations, explicitly focusing on servicemembers specializing in highly technical fields like U.S. Navy Fire Controlman Aegis (FCA). In particular, this thesis uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to calculate the net present value (NPV) of Regular Military Compensation (RMC) in conjunction with Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRB) to assess the comparability of compensation packages with civilian wages. Military compensation, even for specialized roles like FCA, offers a higher net present value than civilian compensation. This underscores the significance of acknowledging and preserving compensation differentials to ensure the retention of skilled military personnel.

The Chief of Navy Reserve (CNR) discussed the focus of the Reserves in his Navy Reserve Fighting Instructions (NRFI) 2022. He stressed the importance of the Reserve Component (RC) effectively contributing to Big Navy objectives through warfighting readiness and strategic depth. As administrators of the NRFI, Training and Administration of Reservists (TAR) officers manage Selected Reservists (SELRES) through operational training and administrative readiness, directly contributing to the CNR’s vision. This study utilizes a quantitative analysis of the TAR Transfer and Redesignation (T&R) Board’s results from fiscal years 2016 to 2020 to start the conversation on the value of further study into the RC. The selection of TAR officers gained through the T&R Board fills the roles and responsibilities of managing SELRES. We extract and analyze variables representative of performance, retention, and accession of selected TAR officers through descriptive statistics. The findings indicate that board selectees provide a high return on investment due to high performance, service beyond the Minimum Service Requirement, and a high rate of direct skills transfer. Further research should consider an in-depth analysis of outcomes in specific TAR communities, an analysis of limitations on TAR accession processes, and a robust analysis of the RC’s contributions to the national defense mission.

The Surface Navy is experiencing increased unplanned losses (UPL) each year. In this interpretive study, we received and analyzed data from Naval Surface Forces Pacific Command (CNSP), looking for trends and patterns. Our data covered fiscal years 2019, 2020, 2021, and up to February 2022. The data showed that over the last two years, mental health has overtaken misconduct and drug abuse for the leading cause of UPLs across the Fleet. Upon this discovery, we questioned why mental health UPLs were rising and how we can reduce them. Currently, the term “unplanned loss” is undefined in any instruction. A previous study defined a UPL as “a loss to a command where a Sailor is issued a DD214." However, we believe it should be defined as “any loss of a Sailor from a command that is expected to last greater than 3 weeks.” By defining the term this way, it will allow commands to implement a standard operating procedure and corrective courses of actions to find a replacement Sailor and to account for temporary losses. We believe filling UPLs as quickly as possible will significantly slow down the domino effect of multiple UPLs onboard surface ships. Our research uncovered more question than answers, but we believe our recommendations and future research will greatly benefit the Fleet in the future.

The Navy Explosive Ordnance Disposal (NEOD) community continues to struggle to retain officers at eight to ten years of commissioned service (YCS). In an effort to incentivize more officers to stay, the Navy implemented an officer retention bonus (ORB) in 2005. Since its inception, the bonus has had a statistically significant increase in retention but has diminished in its attractiveness over time, as fewer and fewer officers take the bonus each year. The object of this project is to study the effectiveness of monetary incentives, specifically the ORB, and its ability to influence the retention decisions of Navy EOD officers at critical career points. Using demographic data from the Officer Personnel Information System (OPINS) from various Navy EOD year groups, a logistic regression analysis was run to quantify the relationship between ORB amounts and "take" decisions. Based on the regression results, ORB amounts were shown to be statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. These findings were then used to develop a logit model. Using this model, it was shown that in order to return to the targeted 75 percent "take" rate, the ORB amount would need to be increased and adjusted for inflation. Therefore, it is recommended that the ORB be updated, at a minimum, on a periodic basis to keep pace with inflation, if it is to remain competitive with earnings potential outside of the Navy., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In just over 12 years, Bitcoin rose from an obscure idea posted to a cryptographer’s mailing list to a globally-recognized asset class with market cap of over $1 trillion. This paper examines Bitcoin and the blockchain technology on which it is based from two distinct angles: 1) its long-term viability as money or a durable unit of exchange, and 2) its potential applications within U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) to enhance operational effectiveness. As a unit of exchange, Bitcoin contains the fundamental properties of money—durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, and limited supply—but lacks one important characteristic: acceptability. Bitcoin’s odds of reaching this final milestone are threatened by the basic psychology of power, fear, and sovereign nations’ ability to exert control over its money supply. Within USSOCOM, early adoption of Bitcoin can provide a suite of tactical tools and options to counter Chinese expansion, enable human intelligence operations, and modernize frontline payment methods with the use of digital tokens and e-wallets., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This report examines the downstream benefits of retrofitting current building stock on Department of Defense (DOD) installations. A holistic approach is necessary to achieve the objectives laid out by the executive branch to achieve a net-zero emissions building portfolio by 2045. Current procurement standards address this objective with new construction; however, most buildings within the DOD stock were built ahead of these initiatives and 29% have exceeded their life expectancies. Since this represents a large portion of the DOD building stock, priority should be given to building envelope retrofit projects to reduce the thermal demand in a logically sequenced approach toward net-zero goals. These initial steps are necessary to improve efficiencies that will lead to reduced demand and facilitate downstream investments in alternative and reduced-emissions systems. This report utilized a case study done at NPS that highlights the savings achieved from buildings with tight envelopes and investigated funding streams to achieve these goals., Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The increasing competition from China and the resurgence of Russian aggression has emphasized the need for innovation. The naval construction force (NCF) provides general engineering to the United States Navy and similarly needs to innovate to remain relevant and provide value to the warfighter. Innovation can be categorized as small incremental improvements (exploitation) or major disruptive shifts (exploration). This paper looks to define what exploitation and exploration mean to the NCF and what intangible assets and resources will be required to meet those innovation goals. This paper uses principles from literature in business academia and applies them to the research questions to establish a best practice recommendation for the NCF. In order to apply rigor to the paper, it uses metrics of effectiveness to determine which approach to innovation provides the greatest value to the Navy. Based on an evaluation of five measures of effectiveness, the NCF would be best served by pursuing the exploration approach to innovation. To do this, the NCF should create a dedicated Development Company to develop and validate new concepts for wider adoption.

As the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, with the speed of recovery still uncertain, the state of the civilian labor market will impact the public sector. Specifically, the relatively stable and insulated jobs in the Department of Defense (DoD) are expected to be perceived as more attractive for the near future. This implies changes in DoD worker quit behavior that present both a challenge and an opportunity for the DoD leadership in retaining high-quality, experienced talent. We use a unique panel dataset of DoD civilian acquisition area workers and a dynamic programming approach to simulate the impact of the pandemic on worker retention rates under a variety of recovery scenarios. We find that workers will choose not to exit from the DoD while the civilian sector suffers from the impact of the pandemic. This allows leadership to more easily retain experienced workers. However, once the civilian sector has recovered enough, these same workers will quit at an accelerated rate, making gains in talent only temporary. These results imply that while the DoD can take short-run advantage of negative shocks to the civilian sector to retain and attract high quality workers, long-run retention will be achieved through more fundamental reforms to personnel policy to make DoD jobs more attractive, no matter the state of the civilian labor market.As the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, with the speed of recovery still uncertain, the state of the civilian labor market will impact the public sector. Specifically, the relatively stable and insulated jobs in the Department of Defense (DoD) are expected to be perceived as more attractive for the near future. This implies changes in DoD worker quit behavior that present both a challenge and an opportunity for the DoD leadership in retaining high-quality, experienced talent. We use a unique panel dataset of DoD civilian acquisition area workers and a dynamic programming approach to simulate the impact

The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of the Department of Defense’s policy changes to the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), its defined contribution plan, enacted on 1 January 2018. A voluntary and anonymous survey was administered online to approximately 2,000 active-duty Navy personnel at Destroyer Squadron 31 to determine how the new TSP default options affected their TSP utilization and if their actions align with previous studies in behavioral economics. From the 87 survey responses received, 91 percent confirmed participation in the TSP, demonstrating the potential significance of TSP-related policy changes on military members. We found the new default contribution rate had less of an impact than the new default contribution allocation, which shifted from the Government Securities Investment Fund (G Fund) to the Lifecycle Fund (L Fund) aligned to when the service member would reach retirement age. The G Fund has a historic rate of return of 2 percent over the past ten years, whereas the 2050 L Fund has produced a rate of return of 10 percent. We also discovered the majority of individuals who joined under the new system (53 percent) do not know in which funds their retirement TSP savings are invested. Our study demonstrates the substantial impact that current and future policy changes can have on the financial retirement health of service members and provides senior military leaders valuable data to develop training and policies appropriately., http://archive.org/details/theeffectsofmili1094566582, Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Naval Special Warfare (NSW) forces are often regarded as the best trained, most flexible, rapidly deployable, and most innovative forces in the Armed Services, yet, a clunky and troubled acquisition history has presented obstacles to find emerging, new, disruptive concepts that allow us to compete against the world’s Great Power Competition. How can we improve warfighter development within NSW and create acquisition agility and flexibility? The purpose of our project is to analyze Other Transaction Authority (OTA) use to procure and develop innovative technology solutions that benefit the warfighter. By using Information Warfare Research Project’s (IWRP) OTA consortium, we will act as consultants to Naval Special Warfare Command (WARCOM) throughout procurement of the Interactive Synthetic Environment (ISE). ISE will act as a case study for this acquisition vehicle but will also be analyzed as an innovative prototyping technology in NSW. Traditional prototypes help to test and validate the desired warfighter capability; however, in many cases, the development of a proper prototype is too difficult, expensive, and time consuming. ISE is an emerging technology development initiative to produce a Minimal Viable Product (MVP) prototype of a virtual environment that can make it possible to collect valuable usage and design data to make a go/no-go decision, or to refine a new capability at a fraction of the cost of traditional prototypes., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The purpose of this research was to conduct a comparative analysis of an existing Department of Defense (DOD) contract for commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) special operational equipment (SOE) items with commercial e-commerce portals to determine if there were certain categories of commercial items that should be purchased through the online marketplace. Specifically, the research analysis compared a specific set of COTS SOE items purchased by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Troop Support through its tailored logistics support program (TLSP) contracts with the same set of items available for purchase through commercial e-commerce portals. The comparative analysis between DOD contracts and commercial e-commerce portals pinpointed benefits, disadvantages, and limitations of the implementation of commercial e-commerce portals for the procurement of COTS SOE., ARP, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The United States has no recent experience dealing with a large-scale pandemic such as COVID-19 that has clearly affected our entire culture, institutions, and way of life. This type of problem is not predictable, and its associated impacts are not easily estimated. As such, we conducted a quantitative comparison in terms of case count between the Navy’s response and the United States’ national response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the timing and implementation of Navy versus national and state policies, and explored the patterns and lessons learned to benefit the Navy and Department of Defense in the future. Our study meets a substantial need to look at both entities' response from an objective standpoint and to critique those aspects that served to further benefit or hinder outcomes., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Reserve, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the Department of Defense (DOD) annual audit through analysis of the Defense Finance and Accounting Service (DFAS). This study addresses material weaknesses detailed in the FY 2020 DOD Inspector General (IG) audit by applying internal control standards to the policies and accounting practices of DFAS. The author finds that monitoring and control procedures implemented by DFAS do not meet objectives for producing accurate and auditable financial information. Analysis of the history of audits, GAO reports, and DOD IG inspections reveals patterns of insufficient corrective action that require remediation. Furthermore, antiquated IT systems, unclear accounting policies, and misaligned quality assurance monitoring programs contributed to numerous FY 2020 material weaknesses. Based on major findings, the author makes corrective policy recommendations for the consideration of DFAS and DOD leadership., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This report is an extension of the originally proposed sequence of three studies that developed a cutting-edge modeling and simulation tool for the Acquisition Workforce (AWF). The initial objective of that sequence was to build a Dynamic Retention Model (DRM) from the ground-up for the AWF to restore and maintain a capable and flexible acquisition workforce in support of the needs of the modern warfighter. The current report uses the previous model to analyze the phenomenal and unprecedented impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. civilian sector and its potential effects on the size and composition of the AWF in the coming years. After going steadily down for almost a decade and being at the historical low of 3.5% in February 2020, the U.S. unemployment rate spiked to almost 15% in April 2020. This event represented an unparalleled increase of more than 11% in just two months. As surprising as the initial increase was the sharp fall in the U.S. unemployment rate that followed. As of November 2021, just a year and a half after the peak, the unemployment rate is hovering around 4.6%, barely more than one percentage point above the previous historical low. While the impact of COVID-19 has been so far much harsher on the civilian sector employment than on the government sector (i.e., and the AWF), it is unclear how the latter will evolve in the mid- and long-run after the fast, ongoing recovery of the private sector. We take advantage of the DRM developed in the previous studies and extend it to explore the potential consequences of economy-wide shocks (such as COVID-19) on the AWF as the economy shows signs of strong recovery. We start analyzing the behavior of a representative AWF worker at the beginning of the pandemic, when the strength of the economic recovery was highly uncertain. We find that, under a number of different scenarios regarding the speed of recovery, it takes several years (in expectation) before the AWF employee returns to the pre-pandemic behavio

To support the modern warfighters tasked with increasing demands in a constantly changing global environment, it is imperative that the defense acquisition system continue to evolve to maintain its capability and flexibility. In this effort, growing a talented, experienced, and well-qualified civilian workforce will be vital. As part of this broad effort, the Section 809 Panel has recommended change to the DoD’s career management framework to grow and augment the workforce, and the DoD AWF Strategic Plan — FY 2016 – FY 2021 has emphasized efforts since 2010 to restore and restructure the AWF after a period of twenty years of shrinkage. This technical research report is the second in a proposed series of three linked studies to provide a cutting-edge modeling and simulation tool that leverages the increase in availability of AWF data and the large increases in computing power in the last decades. Building on the proof-of-concept model created as part of the first-year effort, we continue our development of a “Dynamic Retention Model (DRM)” designed from the ground-up for the AWF. Using a large personnel dataset of the acquisition workforce as well as a representative dataset of the civilian population from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate our DRM. DRM is a leading-edge technique that uses a powerful mathematical/econometric technique called dynamic programming. It takes a complex, multi-period problem (such as the lifetime labor market decisions of an acquisition worker) and breaks it down into simpler, one-period sub-problems in a recursive manner. Solving a single-period problem “nests” the future decisions that the worker will make, allowing the estimation and prediction of complex behavior in a surprisingly manageable framework. With estimates from the model, we simulate how various modifications in personnel policies, such as changes in salary structure and bonuses, would have affected the labor market decisions of the workforce. In particular, our mo

This project supports the Navy’s efforts to promote diversity and inclusion (D&I), which are recognized as strategic imperatives that give the Navy a warfighting advantage against our adversaries. The study utilizes both quantitative and qualitative approaches to understand the major contributing factors to an inclusive and diverse command, accomplishing four research objectives: (1) developing metrics to assess behaviors of inclusion within the fleet; (2) assessing inclusion behaviors within the fleet using the developed metrics; (3) determining the most impactful D&I competencies for building inclusion; and (4) identifying command practices that contribute to greater acceptance of diversity. We develop and introduce a survey instrument to assess Personal Inclusion Factors (individuals’ feelings of being personally included within their command) and Command Core Inclusion Competencies (individuals’ beliefs about how their commands demonstrate practices that promote diversity and inclusion) suitable for a Navy context. The instrument captures best practices and validated metrics for promoting and assessing D&I in organizations and tailors them to the Navy and Sailors’ work. We fielded this survey to 489 active-duty Navy personnel (enlisted and officers) asking them to report on both their current and past commands. We find that females across all race/ethnicities on average report lower feelings of inclusion and rate commands lower on Core Command Inclusion Competencies than their male counterparts. This gender difference is stronger for sea versus shore commands. Participants also answered open-ended questions about the competencies that they believed were most important for promoting D&I in the fleet. "Inclusive leadership" emerged as a dominant theme; in particular, participants felt most included in commands where leadership valued their perspectives and ideas and where Sailors felt heard on a day-in, day-out basis.

As the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, with the speed of recovery still uncertain, the state of the civilian labor market will impact the public sector. Specifically, the relatively stable and insulated jobs in the Department of Defense (DoD) are expected to be perceived as more attractive for the near future. This implies changes in DoD worker quit behavior that present both a challenge and an opportunity for the DoD leadership in retaining high-quality, experienced talent. We use a unique panel dataset of DoD civilian acquisition area workers and a dynamic programming approach to simulate the impact of the pandemic on worker retention rates under a variety of recovery scenarios. We find that workers will choose not to exit from the DoD while the civilian sector suffers from the impact of the pandemic. This allows leadership to more easily retain experienced workers. However, once the civilian sector has recovered enough, these same workers will quit at an accelerated rate, making gains in talent only temporary. These results imply that while the DoD can take short-run advantage of negative shocks to the civilian sector to retain and attract high quality workers, long-run retention will be achieved through more fundamental reforms to personnel policy to make DoD jobs more attractive, no matter the state of the civilian labor market.As the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, with the speed of recovery still uncertain, the state of the civilian labor market will impact the public sector. Specifically, the relatively stable and insulated jobs in the Department of Defense (DoD) are expected to be perceived as more attractive for the near future. This implies changes in DoD worker quit behavior that present both a challenge and an opportunity for the DoD leadership in retaining high-quality, experienced talent. We use a unique panel dataset of DoD civilian acquisition area workers and a dynamic programming approach to simulate the impact

MBA Professional Project, In this project, we examine the potential net value to service members using the Blended Retirement System’s (BRS) lump-sum option to buy a home. The lump-sum option is a highly controversial element of the new BRS. Due to the relatively high discount rate used to determine the value of a retiree’s lump-sum payment, most financial analysts warn against electing the lump-sum option because doing so significantly decreases the net value of one’s retirement benefits over time. While that statement is usually true, the value of the lump-sum option to an individual service member depends on what they do with the money once they elect the lump-sum option. There are no prior studies that compare the normal annuity with potential outcomes of using the lump-sum, presumably because of the immense number of variables and unknowns inherent in attempting to do so. In this light, this project builds a decision-supporting financial model that can be used by service members to compare the value of a normal annuity with the value of using the lump-sum option to purchase a home. The model built here can be informative to service members as they approach retirement and have to decide for themselves whether the lump-sum is the more enticing retention tool., http://archive.org/details/beyondfacevaluea1094564007, Captain, United States Marine Corps, Captain, United States Marine Corps

Naval Special Warfare (NSW) forces are often regarded as the best trained, most flexible, rapidly deployable, and most innovative forces in the Armed Services, yet, a clunky and troubled acquisition history has presented obstacles to find emerging, new, disruptive concepts that allow us to compete against the world’s Great Power Competition. How can we improve warfighter development within NSW and create acquisition agility and flexibility? The purpose of our project is to analyze Other Transaction Authority (OTA) use to procure and develop innovative technology solutions that benefit the warfighter. By using Information Warfare Research Project’s (IWRP) OTA consortium, we will act as consultants to Naval Special Warfare Command (WARCOM) throughout procurement of the Interactive Synthetic Environment (ISE). ISE will act as a case study for this acquisition vehicle but will also be analyzed as an innovative prototyping technology in NSW. Traditional prototypes help to test and validate the desired warfighter capability; however, in many cases, the development of a proper prototype is too difficult, expensive, and time consuming. ISE is an emerging technology development initiative to produce a Minimal Viable Product (MVP) prototype of a virtual environment that can make it possible to collect valuable usage and design data to make a go/no-go decision, or to refine a new capability at a fraction of the cost of traditional prototypes.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of the Department of Defense’s policy changes to the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), its defined contribution plan, enacted on 1 January 2018. A voluntary and anonymous survey was administered online to approximately 2,000 active-duty Navy personnel at Destroyer Squadron 31 to determine how the new TSP default options affected their TSP utilization and if their actions align with previous studies in behavioral economics. From the 87 survey responses received, 91 percent confirmed participation in the TSP, demonstrating the potential significance of TSP-related policy changes on military members. We found the new default contribution rate had less of an impact than the new default contribution allocation, which shifted from the Government Securities Investment Fund (G Fund) to the Lifecycle Fund (L Fund) aligned to when the service member would reach retirement age. The G Fund has a historic rate of return of 2 percent over the past ten years, whereas the 2050 L Fund has produced a rate of return of 10 percent. We also discovered the majority of individuals who joined under the new system (53 percent) do not know in which funds their retirement TSP savings are invested. Our study demonstrates the substantial impact that current and future policy changes can have on the financial retirement health of service members and provides senior military leaders valuable data to develop training and policies appropriately.

MBA Professional Project, Compensation systems, including cash payments and benefits, play an essential role in recruiting and retaining talents in both the private and public sectors; we argue that due to the complexity of the benefits systems, as well as a lack of communication, many military service members are not aware of the overall worth of their pay, allowances, benefits, and tax breaks. In several instances, military benefits are often much greater than those of civilian counterparts, yet many service members remain dissatisfied and misinformed regarding compensation packages and benefits. A comprehensive communication and education overhaul must be implemented in order to quell a growing culture of dissatisfaction and misunderstanding among service members facing the decision to extend their military career or terminate service. In an increasingly competitive economic environment, improvements in communication efforts regarding compensation and benefits will allow service members to make better-informed decisions and may ultimately contribute to improvements in Department of Defense retention efforts., http://archive.org/details/servicemembercom1094561245, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Lieutenant Commander, United States National Reserve

This thesis will investigate the existence of racial biases in the National Basketball Association by examining the probability of African-American head coaches being separated from their assignments, conditional on several factors, for the last twenty-three regular seasons. The research is widely descriptive, and tends to determine whether racial bias has existed in the separations of African-American head coaches in the NBA. Comprehensive analysis of the most significant factors that affect the coaches’ tenure in the league is performed. Based on the estimated results, recommendations are offered on current policies to continue reducing any racial bias in the NBA, to not only emphasize the current situation, but to create additional and specific bases for future studies., http://archive.org/details/theexistenceofra1094562246, Colonel, Georgian Ground Forces, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This paper will report to what extent cognitive ability plays a role in predicting future promotion. This knowledge could be useful for those who are more likely to fill a higher position during their military careers, given their cognitive ability. U.S. Navy leaders could use this information to allocate resources to these Sailors in advance in order to help them achieve a higher margin of productivity and better set of skills to help them later in their careers. By doing so, the Navy would be incentivizing Sailors with the greatest cognitive ability to stay longer in the military; in turn, the Sailors will see that they get a better payoff for staying in the military longer. This study looks specifically at promotions from E-3 to E-7 between 2001 through 2011. The results of this study suggest there is a significant positive correlation between promoting early and basic cognitive ability. In fact, in most cases, the higher the score, the more likely a Sailor will promote early across the whole Navy and at the community level. Furthermore, the relevance of being more cognitively advanced becomes more important as the military member ascends the hierarchy. Given that the Armed Forces Qualification Test’s (AFQT) formula emphasizes literacy skill more than math knowledge, I argue that the AFQT’s metric captures literacy better. Therefore, by displaying higher literacy capacity, an enlistee has a better chance of early promotion.

The current enlisted detailing process is completely centralized, requiring a time-intensive system to negotiate and match Sailor preferences to job gaps. The process is managed by Bureau of Naval Personnel (BUPERS) detailers through coordination with placement officers, command representatives, and the individual Sailors seeking available billets. Individual Sailor records are also maintained at BUPERS, using multiple databases. This report researches the use of blockchain technology to provide a decentralized marketplace to streamline the process while still protecting sensitive data. While this report concludes that it is entirely feasible to encode Sailor records on a blockchain ledger, further research is recommended in the form of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to determine whether this solution is right for BUPERS.

In this project, we examine the potential net value to service members using the Blended Retirement System’s (BRS) lump-sum option to buy a home. The lump-sum option is a highly controversial element of the new BRS. Due to the relatively high discount rate used to determine the value of a retiree’s lump-sum payment, most financial analysts warn against electing the lump-sum option because doing so significantly decreases the net value of one’s retirement benefits over time. While that statement is usually true, the value of the lump-sum option to an individual service member depends on what they do with the money once they elect the lump-sum option. There are no prior studies that compare the normal annuity with potential outcomes of using the lump-sum, presumably because of the immense number of variables and unknowns inherent in attempting to do so. In this light, this project builds a decision-supporting financial model that can be used by service members to compare the value of a normal annuity with the value of using the lump-sum option to purchase a home. The model built here can be informative to service members as they approach retirement and have to decide for themselves whether the lump-sum is the more enticing retention tool.

The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of converting steam-powered propulsion plants on-board Wasp-Class Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) hulls 1 through 7 to hybrid propulsion. The objective of this research was to evaluate the net present value of conversion by weighing the cost-savings benefits of fuel savings, in-port utility consumption, and manpower against the cost of conversion. The results of the analysis conclude that LHDs 5 and 7 have a positive net present value; therefore, their conversion is recommended. LHD 6 can have a positive net present value with recommended complex overhaul schedule changes. Recommendations are made to maximize benefits to the Navy, considering potential changes in force structure and follow-on studies.

This report addresses deficiencies in our understanding of service members’ career trajectories. The insights generated will be used to construct more sophisticated and useful models of long run manpower projections, allowing complex simulations to predict the impact of personnel policy changes. This will allow Navy leadership to avoid unanticipated shocks to service member supply and quality. This report proceeds along two lines. First, we collect a dataset of Navy officers and examine their career trajectory, paying particular attention to their educational background and sociodemographic characteristics. Using long-term trend, as well as regression analysis, we find significant retention rate differences over the long run across gender, marital and dependent status, race, and education level. While the long run trends and regression results are illuminating, we should be wary of drawing definite conclusions about the innate ability or desire of officers to stay or separate based on these analyses. Without a formal model to distinguish between correlation and causation, we should recognize that the findings in this study primarily help direct our modeling efforts in subsequent years. Second, we provide an in-depth description of dynamic programming models, demonstrating their usefulness and internal consistency for predicting rational, forward-looking agents making choices that affect their future. We provide a detailed technical description of the model, defining value functions, Bellman’s equations, and other concepts necessary to program, estimate, solve, and simulate a dynamic programming model. We then propose the path forward to examine how service members in different communities may make different career choices.

The Department of Defense (DoD) budget is the end product of the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution process, which is submitted to Congress two years in advance of execution. Thus, the DoD will always demonstrate a monetary difference between the planning and execution phases. A significant difference between the planning and execution affects providers such as Naval Supply Systems Command (NAVSUP), which is responsible for the managing and financing of materiel. From 2007 to 2017, there has been an average budget difference of $3.1B for Operation and Maintenance, Navy appropriation. NAVSUP receives the DoD budget requirements from resource sponsors and budget submitting offices (BSOs) and determines how to invest by utilizing an inflation category code (ICC), such as Consumable parts (412) and Repairable parts (503). This study analyzed the budget differences for ICC 412 and 503 from 2007–2017; it demonstrated which budget line items (BLIs) and BSOs had the most significant contribution to these differences. For ICC 412 and 503, our analysis showed the most significant differences were observed in the years 2007–2011 and 2014–2017, and that the BLIs Mission and Other Flight Operations (1A1A) and Mission and Other Ship Operations (1B1B) demonstrated the most significant budget differences. It was also determined that BSO for Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces, and Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet had the most significant impact on the budget differences for these BLIs.