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Mendes, J. M., & Coelho, P. S. (2023). The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes: A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model. Infectious Disease Modelling, 8(3), 742-768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.009. Funding Information: This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) under the project UIDB/04152/2020 - Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC) Successive generalisations of the basic SEIR model have been proposed to accommodate the different needs of the organisations handling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the assessment of the public health measures adopted and named under the common umbrella of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). So far, these generalisations have not been able to assess the ability of these measures to avoid infection by the SARS-CoV-2 and thus their contribution to contain the spread of the disease. This work proposes a new generalisation of SEIR model and includes a heterogeneous and age-related generation of infections that depends both on a probability that a contact generates the transmission of the disease and a contact rate. The results show (1) thanks to the universal wearing of facial coverings, the probability that a contact provokes the transmission of the disease was reduced by at least 50% and (2) the impact of the other NPI is so significant that otherwise Portugal would have gone into a non-sustainable situation of having 80% of its population infected in the first 300 days of the pandemic. This situation would have led to a number of deaths almost twenty times higher than the number that was actually recorded by December 26th, 2020. Moreover, the results suggest that even if the requirement of universal wearing of facial coverings was adopted sooner jointly with closing workplaces and resorting to teleworking would have postponed the peak of the incidence, altought the epidemic path would have result in a number of infections hardly managed by the National Health System. Complementary, results confirm that (3) the health authorities adopted a conservative approach on the criteria to consider an infected individual not infective any longer; and (4) the most effective NPIs and stringency levels either impacting on self-protection against infection or reducing the contacts that would eventually result in infection are, in decreasing order of importance, the use of Facial coverings, Workplace closing and Stay at home requirements. publishersversion epub_ahead_of_print

INTRODUCTION: Portuguese adults have a long lifespan, but it is unclear whether they live a healthy life in their final years. We aimed to determine the prevalence of multimorbidity and characterize lifestyle and other health outcomes among older Portuguese adults. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional evaluation of 2393 adults, aged 65 and older, during the second wave of follow-up of the EpiDoC cohort, a population-based study involving long-term follow-up of a representative sample of the Portuguese population. Subjects completed a structured questionnaire during a telephone interview. Socioeconomic, demographic, lifestyle behaviours, chronic diseases, and health resources consumption were assessed. Cluster analysis was done to identify dietary patterns. Descriptive and analytic analysis was performed to estimate multimorbidity prevalence and its associated factors. RESULTS: Multimorbidity prevalence among older adults was 78.3%, increased with age strata (72.8% for 65 - 69 years to 83.4% for ≥ 80 years), and was highest in Azores (84.9%) and Alentejo (83.6%). The most common chronic diseases were hypertension (57.3%), rheumatic disease (51.9%), hypercholesterolemia (49.4%), and diabetes (22.7%). Depression symptoms were frequent (11.8%) and highest in the oldest strata. The mean health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-3L) score was 0.59 ± 0.38. Hospitalization in the previous 12 months was reported by 25.8% of individuals. Overall, 66.6% of older adults were physically inactive. 'Fruit and vegetables dietary pattern' was followed by 85.4% of individuals; however, regional inequalities were found (69% in Azores). Obesity prevalence was 22.3% overall and was highest among Azoreans (33%). CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of multimorbidity, combined with unhealthy lifestyle behaviours, suggests that the elderly populationconstitutes a vulnerable group warranting dedicated intervention. publishersversion published

Abdelnour, G. A., Abouchedid, K., Aguayo, M., Bakkali, M., Baroud, F., Belhani, A., ... Ykhlef, N. (2017). Introduction. In J. B. Govantes Romero, & E. Mellado Durán (Eds.), EURO-MEDITERRANEAN INTEGRATION THROUGH LIFELONG LEARNING (EU-MILL): A memory of cooperation and dialogue on Education in the Mediterranean basin (pp. 19-47). (Divulgación Científica). Universidad de Sevilla. https://doi.org/10.12795/9788447221042 publishersversion published

Abdelnour, G. A., Abouchedid, K., Aguayo, M., Bakkali, M., Baroud, F., Belhani, A., ... Ykhlef, N. (2017). General methodology. In J. B. Govantes Romero, & E. Mellado Durán (Eds.), EURO-MEDITERRANEAN INTEGRATION THROUGH LIFELONG LEARNING (EU-MILL): A memory of cooperation and dialogue on Education in the Mediterranean basin (pp. 49-78). (Divulgación Científica). Universidad de Sevilla. https://doi.org/10.12795/9788447221042 On the following pages, it will be analyzed the situation of LLL on all partner countries, the integration of LLL policies within their legal frameworks, as well as some examples of good practices in LLL on the partner countries, identified and learnt after the study visit to HEI in the European shore. We have performed a comparative policy analysis extracted from the country reports on LLL delivered in the begining of project in the four southern Mediterranean partner countries (Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon and Algeria) and in the European Union. The expected aim was to compare the different policies of these countries for implementing Lifelong Learning, in order to provide basis for a further development of Lifelong Learning policies in the four countries. The analysis provides the necessary base for introducing a framework and guidelines on behalf of establishing, assessing, accrediting and running LLL study programmes in higher education (HE), conducting projects and providing a firm and stable infrastructure for LLL. publishersversion published

Abdelnour, G. A., Abouchedid, K., Aguayo, M., Bakkali, M., Baroud, F., Belhani, A., ... Ykhlef, N. (2017). Towards recognition of Lifelong Learning. In J. B. Govantes Romero, & E. Mellado Durán (Eds.), EURO-MEDITERRANEAN INTEGRATION THROUGH LIFELONG LEARNING (EU-MILL): A memory of cooperation and dialogue on Education in the Mediterranean basin (pp. 79-121). (Divulgación Científica). Universidad de Sevilla. https://doi.org/10.12795/9788447221042 The recognition of LLL programmes by educational institutions is a cornerstone of the EU-MILL project. In this chapter, we summarize the project approaches towards the recognition of LLL, including the implementation of a Methodological Framework, a Credit and Competences system, Quality Assurance assessment and Regional and National Qualification Frameworks. The development of these instrumentsis a key aspect to assist recognition and increase transparency and comparability, providing great benefits to lifelong learners. Taking into consideration the importance of the European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System (ECTS) as a reference in the south Mediterranean context, an extensive summary of the main elements of the ECTS user's Guide (European Commission, 2009, 2015a) is present in the current chapter. publishersversion published

Objectives: To estimate the national prevalence of rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs) in the adult Portuguese population and to determine their impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), physical function, anxiety and depression. Methods: EpiReumaPt is a national health survey with a three-stage approach. First, 10 661 adult participants were randomly selected. Trained interviewers undertook structured face-to-face questionnaires that included screening for RMDs and assessments of health-related quality of life, physical function, anxiety and depression. Second, positive screenings for ≥1 RMD plus 20% negative screenings were invited to be evaluated by a rheumatologist. Finally, three rheumatologists revised all the information and confirmed the diagnoses according to validated criteria. Estimates were computed as weighted proportions, taking the sampling design into account. Results: The disease-specific prevalence rates (and 95% CIs) of RMDs in the adult Portuguese population were: low back pain, 26.4% (23.3% to 29.5%); periarticular disease, 15.8% (13.5% to 18.0%); knee osteoarthritis (OA), 12.4% (11.0% to 13.8%); osteoporosis, 10.2% (9.0% to 11.3%); hand OA, 8.7% (7.5% to 9.9%); hip OA, 2.9% (2.3% to 3.6%); fibromyalgia, 1.7% (1.1% to 2.1%); spondyloarthritis, 1.6% (1.2% to 2.1%); gout, 1.3% (1.0% to 1.6%); rheumatoid arthritis, 0.7% (0.5% to 0.9%); systemic lupus erythaematosus, 0.1% (0.1% to 0.2%) and polymyalgia rheumatica, 0.1% (0.0% to 0.2%). After multivariable adjustment, participants with RMDs had significantly lower EQ5D scores (β=-0.09; p

Disease mapping is linked to two other scientific areas: small area estimation and ecological-spatial regression. This paper reviews similarities and differences among them. Bayesian hierarchical models are typically used in this context, using a combination of covariate data and a set of spatial random effects to represent the risk surface. The random effects are typically modeled by a conditional autoregressive prior distribution, and a number of alternative specifications have been proposed in the literature. The four models assessed here are applied to a study on alcohol abuse in Portugal, using data collected by the World Mental Health Survey Initiative., REVSTAT-Statistical Journal, Vol. 13 No. 1 (2015): REVSTAT-Statistical Journal