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In binary cascade dynamics, the nodes of a graph are in one of two possible states (inactive, active), and nodes in the inactive state make an irreversible transition to the active state, as soon as their precursors satisfy a predetermined condition. We introduce a set of recursive equations to compute the probability of reaching any final state, given an initial state, and a specification of the transition probability function of each node. Because the naive recursive approach for solving these equations takes factorial time in the number of nodes, we also introduce an accelerated algorithm, built around a breath-first search procedure. This algorithm solves the equations as efficiently as possible, in exponential time., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures

We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (e.g., a tendency for small banks to link to large banks). We analyze default cascades triggered by shocking the network and find that the cascade can be understood as an explicit iterated mapping on a set of edge probabilities that converges to a fixed point. We derive a cascade condition that characterizes whether or not an infinitesimal shock to the network can grow to a finite size cascade, in analogy to the basic reproduction number $R_0$ in epidemic modelling. The cascade condition provides an easily computed measure of the systemic risk inherent in a given banking network topology. Using the percolation theory for random networks we also derive an analytic formula for the frequency of global cascades. Although the analytical methods are derived for infinite networks, we demonstrate using Monte Carlo simulations the applicability of the results to finite-sized networks. We show that edge-assortativity, the propensity of nodes to connect to similar nodes, can have a strong effect on the level of systemic risk as measured by the cascade condition. However, the effect of assortativity on systemic risk is subtle, and we propose a simple graph theoretic quantity, which we call the graph-assortativity coefficient, that can be used to assess systemic risk., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1110.4312

We present an analytical approach to calculating the distribution of shortest paths lengths (also called intervertex distances, or geodesic paths) between nodes in unweighted undirected networks. We obtain very accurate results for synthetic random networks with specified degree distribution (the so-called configuration model networks). Our method allows us to accurately predict the distribution of shortest path lengths on real-world networks using their degree distribution, or joint degree-degree distribution. Compared to some other methods, our approach is simpler and yields more accurate results. In order to obtain the analytical results, we use the analogy between an infection reaching a node in $n$ discrete time steps (i.e., as in the susceptible-infected epidemic model) and that node being at a distance $n$ from the source of the infection., Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures, 1 table

Continuous-time Markov process models of contagions are widely studied, not least because of their utility in predicting the evolution of real-world contagions and in formulating control measures. It is often the case, however, that discrete-time approaches are employed to analyze such models or to simulate them numerically. In such cases, time is discretized into uniform steps and transition rates between states are replaced by transition probabilities. In this paper, we illustrate potential limitations to this approach. We show how discretizing time leads to a restriction on the values of the model parameters that can accurately be studied. We examine numerical simulation schemes employed in the literature, showing how synchronous-type updating schemes can bias discrete-time formalisms when compared against continuous-time formalisms. Event-based simulations, such as the Gillespie algorithm, are proposed as optimal simulation schemes both in terms of replicating the continuous-time process and computational speed. Finally, we show how discretizing time can affect the value of the epidemic threshold for large values of the infection rate and the recovery rate, even if the ratio between the former and the latter is small., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures

It is commonly assumed in percolation theories that at most one percolating cluster can exist in a network. We introduce sausage-like networks (SLNs), an ensemble of synthetic modular networks in which more than one percolating cluster can appear. We show that coexisting percolating clusters (CPCs) emerge in such networks due to limited mixing, i.e., a small number of interlinks between pairs of modules. We develop an approach called modular message passing (MMP) to describe and verify these observations. We demonstrate that the appearance of CPCs is an important source of inaccuracy in the previously introduced percolation theories, such as the message passing (MP) approach. Moreover, we show that the MMP theory improves significantly over the predictions of MP for percolation on synthetic networks with limited mixing and also on several real-world networks. These findings have important implications for understanding the robustness of networks and in quantifying epidemic outbreaks in the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model of disease spread., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures

We introduce network $L$-cloning, a technique for creating ensembles of random networks from any given real-world or artificial network. Each member of the ensemble is an $L$-cloned network constructed from $L$ copies of the original network. The degree distribution of an $L$-cloned network and, more importantly, the degree-degree correlation between and beyond nearest neighbors are identical to those of the original network. The density of triangles in an \LC network, and hence its clustering coefficient, is reduced by a factor of $L$ compared to those of the original network. Furthermore, the density of loops of any fixed length approaches zero for sufficiently large values of $L$. Other variants of $L$-cloning allow us to keep intact the short loops of certain lengths. As an application, we employ these network cloning methods to investigate the effect of short loops on dynamical processes running on networks and to inspect the accuracy of corresponding tree-based theories. We demonstrate that dynamics on $L$-cloned networks (with sufficiently large $L$) are accurately described by the so-called adjacency tree-based theories, examples of which include the message passing technique, some pair approximation methods, and the belief propagation algorithm used respectively to study bond percolation, SI epidemics, and the Ising model., Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures

The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of interbank channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset fire sales. This paper introduces a financial network model that combines the default and liquidity stress mechanisms into a "double cascade mapping". The progress and eventual result of the crisis is obtained by iterating this mapping to its fixed point. Unlike simpler models, this model can therefore quantify how illiquidity or default of one bank influences the overall level of liquidity stress and default in the system. Large-network asymptotic cascade mapping formulas are derived that can be used for efficient network computations of the double cascade. Numerical experiments then demonstrate that these asymptotic formulas agree qualitatively with Monte Carlo results for large finite networks, and quantitatively except when the initial system is placed in an exceptional "knife-edge" configuration. The experiments clearly support the main conclusion that when banks respond to liquidity stress by hoarding liquidity, then in the absence of asset fire sales, the level of defaults in a financial network is negatively related to the strength of bank liquidity hoarding and the eventual level of stress in the network., Comment: 28 pages, 7 figures

We show that for a certain class of dynamics at the nodes the response of a network of any topology to arbitrary inputs is defined in a simple way by its response to a monotone input. The nodes may have either a discrete or continuous set of states and there is no limit on the complexity of the network. The results provide both an efficient numerical method and the potential for accurate analytic approximation of the dynamics on such networks. As illustrative applications, we introduce a quasistatic mechanical model with objects interacting via frictional forces, and a financial market model with avalanches and critical behavior that are generated by momentum trading strategies., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, 1 table

We develop a new ensemble of modular random graphs in which degree-degree correlations can be different in each module and the inter-module connections are defined by the joint degree-degree distribution of nodes for each pair of modules. We present an analytical approach that allows one to analyze several types of binary dynamics operating on such networks, and we illustrate our approach using bond percolation, site percolation, and the Watts threshold model. The new network ensemble generalizes existing models (e.g., the well-known configuration model and LFR networks) by allowing a heterogeneous distribution of degree-degree correlations across modules, which is important for the consideration of nonidentical interacting networks., Comment: 12 pages, 13 figures

The spread of ideas across a social network can be studied using complex contagion models, in which agents are activated by contact with multiple activated neighbors. The investigation of complex contagions can provide crucial insights into social influence and behavior-adoption cascades on networks. In this paper, we introduce a model of a multi-stage complex contagion on networks. Agents at different stages --- which could, for example, represent differing levels of support for a social movement or differing levels of commitment to a certain product or idea --- exert different amounts of influence on their neighbors. We demonstrate that the presence of even one additional stage introduces novel dynamical behavior, including interplay between multiple cascades, that cannot occur in single-stage contagion models. We find that cascades --- and hence collective action --- can be driven not only by high-stage influencers but also by low-stage influencers., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures. This version is accepted to appear in Chaos

We present an analytical approach to determining the expected cascade size in a broad range of dynamical models on the class of random networks with arbitrary degree distribution and nonzero clustering introduced in [M.E.J. Newman, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 058701 (2009)]. A condition for the existence of global cascades is derived as well as a general criterion which determines whether increasing the level of clustering will increase, or decrease, the expected cascade size. Applications, examples of which are provided, include site percolation, bond percolation, and Watts' threshold model; in all cases analytical results give excellent agreement with numerical simulations., Comment: 10 pages

Mean-field analysis is an important tool for understanding dynamics on complex networks. However, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the question of whether mean-field predictions are accurate, and this is particularly true for real-world networks with clustering and modular structure. In this paper, we compare mean-field predictions to numerical simulation results for dynamical processes running on 21 real-world networks and demonstrate that the accuracy of the theory depends not only on the mean degree of the networks but also on the mean first-neighbor degree. We show that mean-field theory can give (unexpectedly) accurate results for certain dynamics on disassortative real-world networks even when the mean degree is as low as 4., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures. This version (with title changed from "How Accurate is Mean-Field Theory for Dynamics on Real-World Networks?") accepted to appear in Phys. Rev. E

We demonstrate that a tree-based theory for various dynamical processes yields extremely accurate results for several networks with high levels of clustering. We find that such a theory works well as long as the mean intervertex distance $\ell$ is sufficiently small - i.e., as long as it is close to the value of $\ell$ in a random network with negligible clustering and the same degree-degree correlations. We confirm this hypothesis numerically using real-world networks from various domains and on several classes of synthetic clustered networks. We present analytical calculations that further support our claim that tree-based theories can be accurate for clustered networks provided that the networks are "sufficiently small" worlds., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures

The question of how clustering (non-zero density of triangles) in networks affects their bond percolation threshold has important applications in a variety of disciplines. Recent advances in modelling highly-clustered networks are employed here to analytically study the bond percolation threshold. In comparison to the threshold in an unclustered network with the same degree distribution and correlation structure, the presence of triangles in these model networks is shown to lead to a larger bond percolation threshold (i.e. clustering \emph{increases} the epidemic threshold or \emph{decreases} resilience of the network to random edge deletion)., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures. Added new Appendix D, updated figures.

An analytical approach to calculating bond percolation thresholds, sizes of $k$-cores, and sizes of giant connected components on structured random networks with non-zero clustering is presented. The networks are generated using a generalization of Trapman's [P. Trapman, Theor. Pop. Biol. {\bf 71}, 160 (2007)] model of cliques embedded in tree-like random graphs. The resulting networks have arbitrary degree distributions and tunable degree-dependent clustering. The effect of clustering on the bond percolation thresholds for networks of this type is examined and contrasted with some recent results in the literature. For very high levels of clustering the percolation threshold in these generalized Trapman networks is increased above the value it takes in a randomly-wired (unclustered) network of the same degree distribution. In assortative scale-free networks, where the variance of the degree distribution is infinite, this clustering effect can lead to a non-zero percolation (epidemic) threshold., Comment: Revised version, to appear in Phys. Rev. E

We present and analyse a three-dimensional model for a quantum dot semiconductor laser with optical injection. This model describes recent experimental single and double excitable intensity pulses, which are related to a central saddle-node homoclinic bifurcation as in the Adler equation. Double pulses are related to a period doubling bifurcation and occur on the same homoclinic curve as single pulses. The bifurcation scenario consolidating single and double excitable pulses is described in detail., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures