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Denne rapporten er et av hovedresultatene fra prosjektet “Betydningen av tollfrie kvoter for eksport av pelagisk fisk til EU” eller i kortform Tollkvote EU, prosjekt nummer 901696 finansiert av FHF (Fiskeri- og havbruksnæringens forskningsfinansiering i 2021−2022. Prosjektet er et samarbeid mellom NUPI (Norsk utenrikspolitisk institutt) v/Arne Melchior, og Nofima med Audun Iversen som hovedansvarlig og Bent Dreyer, Bjørn-Inge Bendiksen og Ove Johansen som prosjektdeltakere. Arne Melchior har vært prosjektleder, mens Nofima har vært administrativt hovedansvarlig

Studien analyserer verdenshandelen og verdikjedene for medisinske varer før og under Covid-19, og diskuterer på grunnlag av dette lærdommer for medisinsk beredskap i Norge. Siden Norge importerer mye av det vi trenger, er beredskap et internasjonalt spørsmål, mens det stort sett har blitt behandlet som et nasjonalt anliggende. Rapport til Korona-kommisjonen 2.2.2021.

En «tollens arkeologi» viser hvordan dagens toll for norsk sjømat er basert på ulike handelsavtaler inngått med EU over 50 år. Videre tallfestes den økonomiske virkningen av toll og tollkvoter med EØS, EU-medlemskap eller bortfall av EØS. Handelsavtalene reduserte tollen fra 2,3 til en milliard NOK i 2018. EØS-avtalen sto for 2/3 av tollinnsparingen, mens «fiskebrevet» fra 1973 utgjorde mindre enn 1/10. Bortfall av EØS kan føre til et eksporttap på inntil mer enn tre milliarder kroner for fangstnæringen, mens EU-medlemskap kan bety økt eksport, særlig for oppdrettsnæringen. Fra «fiskebrevet» til EØS: Betydningen av toll for norsk sjømateksport til EU

EØS er en omfattende avtale med mange tusen rettsakter nedfelt i norske lover og praksis, men antall rettsakter varierer sterkt mellom ulike saksfelter, og på noen områder er håndhevelsen viktigere enn nye lover. Norge har i 2020 96 avtaler med EU, hvorav 46 er det vi kan kalle handelsavtaler. Sveits har et omfattende samarbeid med EU uten å være med i EØS, men forholdet Sveits–EU er under press. Oppsummering av bokas kapitler peker i retning av at det potensielt er mer å tape økonomisk på bortfall av EØS, enn det er å vinne på EU-medlemskap. Sjømatnæringen og Europa: EU-medlemskap, EØS eller NOREXIT?

Kapitlet gir en historisk oversikt over Norges handelsforhandlinger med EU fra 1973 og fram til i dag, med særlig vekt på utfallet for sjømatnæringen. Rundt 1990 ga EFTA forhandlingsmakt til tross for ulike næringsinteresser. EØS-forhandlingene var i 1991 preget av sakskoblinger der mange felter var i spill, og det ble oppnådd betydelige tollreduksjoner for sjømat. Senere har forhandlingene vært adskilt i parallelle spor med svake sakskoblinger. Norge har med redusert forhandlingsmakt blitt presset til stadig økning i EØS-midlene, men frihandel for fisk er aldri oppnådd selv om betydelige tollkvoter er gitt som kompensasjon for tidligere frihandelsavtaler med nye EU-medlemsland. Norges handelsforhandlinger med EU gjennom 50 år: Sakskoblinger og forhandlingsmakt

The role of information and communication technologies (ICT) in driving economic growth has been well-established in the literature. By reducing communication and transaction costs, and improving the quality of capital, ICT helps firms improve their productivity and growth. Given her linguistic and engineering skills, India has been pioneering in ICT exports, in particular, the export of software services since the 1990s. However, there is hardly any attempt to understand how Indian industries have been taking advantage of the massive growth potential of ICT use in their production process, looking into the experiences of different industries. This has been primarily constrained by lack of adequate, disaggregated data on the ICT use by industries. While a few studies have attempted to understand the contribution of ICT to aggregate economic growth, the role of ICT at a detailed industry level is hardly studied in India. This paper is a first attempt to construct ICT investment series for the registered or organised segment of manufacturing industries in India, and one of the first few attempts that have made so far to build such ICT series for the aggregate Indian economy. The study extends the capital asset database in India KLEMS to include ICT investment, i.e. investment in hardware, software and communication equipment, in respect of different manufacturing industries. The paper also provides preliminary estimates of the contribution of ICT capital to growth in the aggregate economy and registered manufacturing sector.

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) provide new opportunities and new challenges for developing economies. ICT adoption, digitalization and automation provide formidable new opportunities in terms of increased efficiency and productivity, the creation of new services and occupations and increased connectivity among agents. However, the extent to which developing economies are able to reap these potential benefits is contingent on a set of other social, economic and institutional dimensions. While economic growth and rising productivity are the major expected outcomes of digitalization, digital divides and related forms of exclusion and inequalities are commonly observed too. India, one of the largest economies in the world, with a remarkable pace of ICT diffusion, represents a relevant case to investigate the impacts of digitalization on economic development. The present book collects a series of novel contributions on this theme, studying the Indian experience in an international cross-country perspective. This introductory chapter presents background information on the Indian case, introduces the main themes on the relationships between ICTs, socio-economic development and digital divides and provides a summary and road map to the chapters included in the book. On the whole, the main message of this book is that the impact of ICTs is contingent upon other assets, capabilities and institutional conditions. National policies should therefore not only promote digitalization as such but also ensure its co-evolution and complementarity with a variety of other country-specific factors. Introduction: Digitalisation and Development: Issues for India and Beyond

Merknad: Denne utgaven er oppdatert 6.12.2016 ved at referanser og lenker til andre publikasjoner fra prosjektet er lagt til. I tillegg er rapporten gjennomgått språklig, men uten endringer i innholdet. Denne studien analyserer TTIP-avtalen, dens virkninger for Norge og Norges handlingsvalg. TTIP-forhandlingene blir neppe avsluttet under Obamas presidenttid, men avtalen kan bli en realitet i løpet av få år. TTIP tar sikte på omfattende samarbeid på reguleringsområdet. På kort sikt blir det begrenset harmonisering av standarder men samarbeid mellom ulike systemer. På sikt er målet sterkere samarbeid på reguleringsområdet. TTIP vil ut fra det vi vet ikke bety en senking av europeiske helsekrav eller et “kappløp mot bunnen”.

This study analyzes TTIP, its implications for Norway and Norway’s trade policy choices. TTIP will hardly be concluded under Obama's presidency, but the agreement could become a reality within a few years. TTIP aims at comprehensive cooperation in the regulatory area. In the short term there will be limited harmonization of standards but regulatory cooperation between different systems. In the long term, the goal is stronger cooperation in the regulatory area. TTIP will from what we know not lead to a lowering of European health regulations or a "race to the bottom". If TTIP is realized and Norway remains outside, the EEA Agreement will be little affected and the overall economic impact is moderate. If Norway joins TTIP, there will be a significant real income gain, with estimates ranging from 2236 to 6772 NOK per capita in the various scenarios. There is considerable variation across sectors. With Norway outside TTIP there will be a moderate negative impact for a majority of the sectors, especially some manufacturing sectors that face tougher competition in the EU and USA export markets. The oil industry will benefit from increased demand and higher prices. If Norway joins TTIP, a clear majority of industries will benefit; especially business services and a number of other service industries. The public sector gains from TTIP, mainly due to cheaper inputs. TTIP will contribute to the dismantling of import protection for Norwegian agriculture and without compensating measures, production and employment will be reduced. TTIP will still allow some import protection and this margin of maneuver, which depends on future negotiations, is important for the outcome. With a larger margin of manoeuvre and unchanged budgetarty support, most of Norway’s agriculture can be maintained. With less margin of manoeuvre, it will be more challenging. Norwegian accession to TTIP may occur in the form of a standard trade agreement in which Norway or EFTA are formally equal to the EU and the United States. Alternatively, Norway may participate in a European pillar as in today's "Open Skies" agreement on air traffic. If TTIP succeeds in establishing comprehensive regulatory cooperation, the latter solution is most likely. Such a solution implies that Norway will become more closely integrated with the European Union also in trade policy towards third countries. Norwegian entry into TTIP implies that we have to accept the established rules and negotiate bilaterally with the EU and the USA on market access. The negotiations with the USA will apply to all aspects of market access, while negotiations with the EU will apply only to areas in which the EEA agreement is not already deeper. The negotiations with the EU for TTIP entry will thus include, among other issues, tariffs for seafood and agriculture. As an alternative to membership in TTIP, Norway or EFTA may initiate a trade agreement with the USA. Such an agreement would likely be less extensive in the regulatory area. Such an agreement will also provide an economic gain for Norway, but less than accession to TTIP. For Norway as a whole, accession to TTIP creates a real income gain between 12.5 and 35 billion NOK according to various scenarios, while a free trade agreement with the United States results in a gain of about 7.4 billion NOK. TTIP also includes negotiations on so-called Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS), whereby foreign-owned companies can sue a state if they are unfairly or inappropriately treated. Such rights also exist in national law but international tribunals have to some extent extended the interpretation of what is considered unfair. The European Union has proposed a solution in TTIP with a permanent court as well as rules that discipline the interpretation of the principles, and thus avoids that ISDS unduly interferes into the states’ "right to regulate". This and many other issues are analysed in this report and six background papers.

The paper examines food price differences across Indian states during 2004-2014 using food consumer prices from household surveys and wholesale/retail prices for selected goods. At the individual product level there are large price differences across states, with prices doubling or trebling across India for a typical case, but with considerable variation across products. Price dispersion is still high but considerably lower for food on average; measured at this level price dispersion between Indian states is considerably lower than between countries within the same income range, and Indian states are slightly more integrated than countries in Western Europe. At the product level, the most important determinants of price differences across states are limited access to supply from other states, and the extent of own production in the state. Richer states have higher consumer prices, but this income-price link is weaker for wholesale prices. Food price dispersion within India has decreased during the period studied. For policy, the results suggest that India should eliminate obstacles to inter-state trade in order to promote food security and the real income of its citizens. The magnitude and importance of price level differences also suggest that better price level data should be provided in the future, to facilitate further study of India’s regional development.

The currently negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the EU and the United States of America will most likely affect countries, such as Norway which have close ties to the European production networks. Based on a CGE model, developed at the ifo institute, we structurally estimate the potential effects of TTIP for Norway’s economy on sectoral level. The model captures the reality of global value chains and provides a multi-country multi-sector approach with rich intra- and international input-output linkages. The analysis shows that trade diversion and trade creation effects offset each other in Norway. A comprehensive agreement between the EU and the US would lead to an increase in Norwegian GDP per capita by 0.05%. However, the gain is entirely driven by positive value added changes in the energy sector. Without these gains, the aggregate effects would turn into a loss of -0.11% of current GDP.

Rapporten skisserer bakgrunnen for forhandlingene om en frihandelsavtale mellom USA og EU (TTIP – Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) og de mulige økonomiske virkningene. To sentrale studier, utført av CEPR i London samt IFO-instituttet i Tyskland, anslår betydelige økonomiske gevinster for EU og USA. Som følge av at tollbarrierene mellom USA og EU er moderate, konkluderer begge studiene at de viktigste gevinstene ved TTIP kommer fra reduksjon i ikke-tollmessige handelshindringer. Mens CEPR anslår moderate virkninger for tredjeland som Norge, hevder studien fra IFO at det kan oppstå betydelige negative virkninger for tredjeland. Ut fra en drøfting av metoden konkluderer vi med at de negative virkningene for Norge i den sistnevnte studien antagelig er overdrevet. Årsaken er at den i for liten grad tar hensyn til at nedtrapping av ikke-tollmessige handelshindringer mellom USA og EU kan ha positive effekter for tredjeland. For eksempel vil Norge måtte tilpasse seg TTIPs regelverk på en rekke områder gjennom EØS, og får dermed del av fordelene ved friere handel. En eventuell separat frihandelsavtale mellom Norge og USA vil ha positive økonomiske virkninger for Norge, spesielt for enkelte industrisektorer. Fordi mer enn 60 % av vareeksporten til USA er olje og gass, som i liten grad er begrenset av toll eller ikke-tollmessige hindringer, er gevinsten for Norge antakelig mindre enn tilsvarende for EU. Fordi Norge er et lite og perifert land skjer en god del av importen indirekte via Europa og prisen på import fra USA øker med 40 % på veien. Dersom en frihandelsavtale kan skape enklere og mer direkte handel med USA, kan velferdsgevinsten bli større og dette øker motivasjonen for en frihandelsavtale. En frihandelsavtale kan også bety en viss liberalisering på landbruksområdet og slutt på betydelige subsidier til eksport av Jarlsbergost til USA.

Forhandlingene om et handels- og investeringspartnerskap (TTIP) mellom EU og USA er svært ambisiøse og har som mål å fjerne tollbarrierer samt en rekke regulatoriske hindringer mellom de to partene. Avtalen er ment å dekke handel i både varer og tjenester samt investeringer. I rapporten analyserer vi konsekvensene av et TTIP for Norge. Vi ser også på konsekvenser av en egen handels- og investeringsavtale mellom Norge og USA.