Search

Searches for continuous-wave gravitational radiation in data collected by modern long-baseline interferometers, such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO), the Virgo interferometer and the Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector (KAGRA), can be memory intensive. A digitisation scheme is described that reduces the 64-bit interferometer output to a one- or two-bit data stream while minimising distortion and achieving considerable reduction in storage and input/output cost. For the representative example of the coherent, maximum-likelihood matched filter known as the F-statistic, it is found using Monte-Carlo simulations that the injected signal only needs to be ~24 per cent stronger (for one-bit data) and ~6.4 per cent stronger (for two bit data with optimal thresholds) than a 64-bit signal in order to be detected with 90 per cent probability in Gaussian noise. The foregoing percentages do not change significantly when the signal frequency decreases secularly, or when the noise statistics are not Gaussian, as verified with LIGO Science Run 6 data., Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures; accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal

Pulsar timing arrays can detect continuous nanohertz gravitational waves emitted by individual supermassive black hole binaries. The data analysis procedure can be formulated within a time-domain, state-space framework, in which the radio timing observations are related to a temporal sequence of latent states, namely the intrinsic pulsar spin frequency. The achromatic wandering of the pulsar spin frequency is tracked using a Kalman filter concurrently with the pulse frequency modulation induced by a gravitational wave from a single source. The modulation is the sum of terms proportional to the gravitational wave strain at the Earth and at every pulsar in the array. Here we generalize previous state-space formulations of the pulsar timing array problem to include the pulsar terms; that is, we copy the pulsar terms from traditional, non-state-space analyses over to the state-space framework. The performance of the generalized Kalman filter is tested using astrophysically representative software injections in Gaussian measurement noise. It is shown that including the pulsar terms corrects for previously identified biases in the parameter estimates (especially the sky position of the source) which also arise in traditional matched-filter analyses that exclude the pulsar terms. Additionally, including the pulsar terms decreases the minimum detectable strain by $14\%$. Overall, the study verifies that the pulsar terms do not raise any special extra impediments for the state-space framework, beyond those studied in traditional analyses. The inspiral-driven evolution of the wave frequency at the Earth and at the retarded time at every pulsar in the array is also investigated., Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2409.14613

Stochastic and secular variations in the spin frequency $\nu$ of a rotation-powered pulsar complicate the interpretation of the measured braking index, $n$, in terms of a power-law spin-down torque $\propto \nu^{n_{\rm pl}}$. Both categories of variation can lead to anomalous braking indices, with $\vert n \vert = \vert \nu \ddot{\nu} / \dot{\nu}^2 \vert \gg 1$, where the overdot symbolizes a derivative with respect to time. Here we quantify the combined effect of stochastic and secular deviations from pure power-law spin down on measurements of $n$. Through analytic calculations, Monte Carlo simulations involving synthetic data, and modern Bayesian timing techniques, it is shown that the variance of $n$ satisfies the predictive, falsifiable formula $\langle n^{2} \rangle = (n_{\rm pl}+\dot{K}_{\rm dim})^{2}+\sigma_{\rm dim}^{2}$, where $\dot{K}_{\rm dim}$ is inversely proportional to the time-scale $\tau_K$ over which the proportionality constant of the power-law spin-down torque varies, $\sigma_{\rm dim}$ is proportional to the timing noise amplitude and inversely proportional to the square root of the total observing time, and the average is over an ensemble of random realizations of the timing noise process. The anomalous regime $\langle n^2 \rangle \gg 1$ occurs for $\dot{K}_{\rm dim} \gg 1$, $\sigma_{\rm dim} \gg 1$, or both. The sign of $n$ depends in part on the sign of $\dot{K}_{\rm dim}$, so it is possible to measure unequal numbers of positive and negative $n$ values in a large sample of pulsars. The distinguishable impact of stochastic and secular anomalies on phase residuals is quantified to prepare for extending the analysis of synthetic data to real pulsars.

Continuous nanohertz gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries may be detectable with pulsar timing arrays. A novel search strategy is developed, wherein intrinsic achromatic spin wandering is tracked simultaneously with the modulation induced by a single gravitational wave source in the pulse times of arrival. A two-step inference procedure is applied within a state-space framework, such that the modulation is tracked with a Kalman filter, which then provides a likelihood for nested sampling. The procedure estimates the static parameters in the problem, such as the sky position of the source, without fitting for ensemble-averaged statistics such as the power spectral density of the timing noise, and therefore complements traditional parameter estimation methods. It also returns the Bayes factor relating a model with a single gravitational wave source to one without, complementing traditional detection methods. It is shown via astrophysically representative software injections in Gaussian measurement noise that the procedure distinguishes a gravitational wave from pure noise down to a characteristic wave strain of $h_0 \approx 2 \times 10^{-15}$. Full posterior distributions of model parameters are recovered and tested for accuracy. There is a bias of $\approx 0.3$ rad in the marginalised one-dimensional posterior for the orbital inclination $\iota$, introduced by dropping the so-called `pulsar terms'. Smaller biases $\lesssim 10 \%$ are also observed in other static parameters., Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Many accretion-powered pulsars rotate in magnetocentrifugal disequilibrium, spinning up or down secularly over multi-year intervals. The magnetic dipole moment $\mu$ of such systems cannot be inferred uniquely from the time-averaged aperiodic X-ray flux $\langle L(t) \rangle$ and pulse period $\langle P(t) \rangle$, because the radiative efficiency of the accretion is unknown and degenerate with the mass accretion rate. Here we circumvent the degeneracy by tracking the fluctuations in the unaveraged time series $L(t)$ and $P(t)$ using an unscented Kalman filter, whereupon $\mu$ can be estimated uniquely, up to the uncertainties in the mass, radius and distance of the star. The analysis is performed on Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations for $24$ X-ray transients in the Small Magellanic Cloud, which have been monitored regularly for $\sim 16$ years. As well as independent estimates of $\mu$, the analysis yields time-resolved histories of the mass accretion rate and the Maxwell stress at the disk-magnetosphere boundary for each star, and hence auto- and cross-correlations involving the latter two state variables. The inferred fluctuation statistics convey important information about the complex accretion physics at the disk-magnetosphere boundary., Comment: 42 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Oscillating neutron stars are sources of continuous gravitational waves. We study analytically the excitation of stellar oscillations by the mechanical impact on the stellar surface of ''clumps'' of stochastically accreted matter. We calculate the waveform and spectrum of the gravitational wave signal emitted by the accretion-driven pulsations. Results are generated for an idealised model of a nonrotating, unmagnetised, one-component star with uniform polytropic index $n_{\rm poly}$ assuming Newtonian gravity and the Cowling approximation. We find that the excited mode amplitudes grow with increasing $n_{\rm poly}$ and mode order $n$. The gravitational wave signal forms a sequence of amplitude-modulated packets for $n_{\rm poly}=1$, lasting $\sim 10^{-3}$s after each impact. The gravitational wave strain increases with increasing $n_{\rm poly}$, but decreases with increasing $n$ and increasing multipole order $l$ for $n_{\rm poly}=1$. In the observing band of current long-baseline interferometers, $g$-modes emit higher, narrower peaks in the amplitude spectral density than $f$- and $p$-modes, with the highest peaks reaching $\sim 10^{-26}$Hz$^{-1/2}$ for modes with damping time $\tau_{nl} \sim 10^{8}$yr. The root-mean-square strain $h_{\text{rms}}$, calculated by summing over modes with $2\leq l\leq4$ and $\tau_{nl} \leq 10^{8}$yr, spans the range $10^{-33} \leq h_{\text{rms}} \leq 10^{-32}$ for $1\leq n_{\text{poly}}\leq 2$., Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures. accepted in MNRAS

General relativistic corrections are calculated for the quadrupole moment of a magnetically confined mountain on an accreting neutron star. The hydromagnetic structure of the mountain satisfies the general relativistic Grad-Shafranov equation supplemented by the flux-freezing condition of ideal magnetohydrodynamics, as in previous calculations of the magnetic dipole moment. It is found that the ellipticity and hence the gravitational wave strain is $4\%$ to $12\%$ smaller than in the analogous Newtonian system. The direct contribution of the magnetic field to the nonaxisymmetric component of the stress-energy tensor is also considered, and it is shown that it is negligible in systems such as low-mass X-ray binaries.

Detection confidence of the source-agnostic gravitational-wave burst search pipeline BayesWave is quantified by the log signal-versus-glitch Bayes factor, $\ln\mathcal{B}_{\mathcal{S},\mathcal{G}}$. A recent study shows that $\ln\mathcal{B}_{\mathcal{S},\mathcal{G}}$ increases with the number of detectors. However, the increasing frequency of non-Gaussian noise transients (glitches) in expanded detector networks is not accounted for in the study. Glitches can mimic or mask burst signals resulting in false alarm detections, consequently reducing detection confidence. This paper an empirical study on the impact of false alarms on the overall performance of BayesWave, with expanded detector networks. The noise background of BayesWave for the Hanford-Livingston (HL, two-detector) and Hanford-Livingston-Virgo (HLV, three-detector) networks are measured using a set of non-astrophysical background triggers from the first half of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo's Third Observing Run (O3a). Efficiency curves are constructed by combining $\ln\mathcal{B}_{\mathcal{S},\mathcal{G}}$ of simulated binary black hole signals with the background measurements, to characterize BayesWave's detection efficiency as a function of the per-trigger false alarm probability. The HL and HLV network efficiency curves are shown to be similar. A separate analysis finds that detection significance of O3 gravitational-wave candidates as measured by BayesWave are also comparable for the HL and HLV networks. Consistent results from the two independent analyses suggests that the overall burst detection performance of BayesWave does not improve with the addition of Virgo at O3a sensitivity, because the increased false alarm probability offsets the advantage of higher $\ln\mathcal{B}_{\mathcal{S},\mathcal{G}}$., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures

In the standard two-component crust-superfluid model of a neutron star, timing noise can arise when the two components are perturbed by stochastic torques. Here it is demonstrated how to analyse fluctuations in radio pulse times of arrival with a Kalman filter to measure physical properties of the two-component model, including the crust-superfluid coupling time-scale and the variances of the crust and superfluid torques. The analysis technique, validated previously on synthetic data, is applied to observations with the Molonglo Observatory Synthesis Telescope of the representative pulsar PSR J1359$-$6038. It is shown that the two-component model is preferred to a one-component model, with log Bayes factor $6.81 \pm 0.02$. The coupling time-scale and the torque variances on the crust and superfluid are measured with $90\%$ confidence to be $10^{7.1^{+0.8}_{-0.5}}$ $\rm{s}$ and $10^{-24.0^{+0.4}_{-5.6}}$ $\rm{rad^2~s^{-3}}$ and $10^{-21.7^{+3.5}_{-0.9}}$ $\rm{rad^2~s^{-3}}$ respectively., Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Superfluid vortices pinned to nuclear lattice sites or magnetic flux tubes in a neutron star evolve abruptly through a sequence of metastable spatial configurations, punctuated by unpinning avalanches associated with rotational glitches, as the stellar crust spins down electromagnetically. The metastable configurations are approximately but not exactly axisymmetric, causing the emission of persistent, quasimonochromatic, current quadrupole gravitational radiation. The characteristic gravitational wave strain $h_0$ as a function of the spin frequency $f$ and distance $D$ from the Earth is bounded above by $h_0 = 1.2\substack{+1.3 \\ -0.9} \times 10^{-32} (f/30\;{\rm Hz})^{2.5} (D/1\;{\rm kpc})^{-1}$, corresponding to a Poissonian spatial configuration (equal probability per unit area, i.e. zero inter-vortex repulsion), and bounded below by $h_0 = 1.8\substack{+2.0 \\ -1.5} \times 10^{-50} (f/30\;{\rm Hz})^{1.5} (D/1\;{\rm kpc})^{-1}$, corresponding to a regular array (periodic separation, i.e.\ maximum inter-vortex repulsion). N-body point vortex simulations predict an intermediate scaling, $h_0 = 7.3\substack{+7.9 \\ -5.4} \times 10^{-42} (f/30\;{\rm Hz})^{1.9} (D/1\;{\rm kpc})^{-1}$, which reflects a balance between the randomizing but spatially correlated action of superfluid vortex avalanches and the regularizing action of inter-vortex repulsion. The scaling is calibrated by conducting simulations with ${N_{\rm v}} \leq 5\times10^3$ vortices and extrapolated to the astrophysical regime ${N_{\rm v}} \sim 10^{17} (f/30\;{\rm Hz})$. The scaling is provisional, pending future computational advances to raise ${N_{\rm v}}$ and include three-dimensional effects such as vortex tension and turbulence., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Compact objects such as neutron stars and white dwarfs can source axion-like particles and QCD axions due to CP-violating axion-fermion couplings. The magnitude of the axion field depends on the stellar density and on the strength of the axion-fermion couplings. We show that even CP-violating couplings one order of magnitude smaller than existing constraints source extended axion field configurations. For axion-like particles, the axion energy is comparable to the magnetic energy in neutron stars with inferred magnetic fields of the order of $10^{13}$ G, and exceeds by more than one order of magnitude the magnetic energy content of white dwarfs with inferred fields of the order of $10^{4}$ G. On the other hand, the energy stored in the QCD axion field is orders of magnitude lower due to the smallness of the predicted CP-violating couplings. It is shown that the sourced axion field can polarize the photons emitted from the stellar surface, and stimulate the production of photons with energies in the radio band., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

We present results of a follow-up search for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) associated with sub-threshold candidates from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) All-Sky All-Frequency (ASAF) directed radiometer analysis, using Advanced LIGO data from the third observing run (O3). Each ASAF candidate corresponds to a $1/32\,\,\mathrm{Hz}$ frequency band and ${\sim}13\,\,\mathrm{deg}^2$ sky pixel. Assuming they represent possible CW sources, we analyze all $515$ ASAF candidates using a semi-coherent, $\mathcal{F}$-statistic-based matched filter search. The search algorithm incorporates a hidden Markov model (HMM), expanding the signal model to allow frequency spin-wandering, as well as unmodeled frequency evolution of less than $10^{-5}$ Hz per day that is not captured by the searched range of $\pm10^{-9}\,\,\mathrm{Hz/s}$ in frequency derivative. Significance thresholds with a $5\%$ probability of false alarm per ASAF candidate are determined empirically by searching detector noise at various off-target sky positions. We obtain $14$ outliers surviving a set of vetoes designed to eliminate instrumental artifacts. Upon further investigation, these outliers are deemed unlikely to represent astrophysical signals. We estimate the sensitivity of our search to both isolated and binary sources with orbital period greater than one year by recovering simulated signals added to detector data. The minimum detectable strain amplitude at $95\%$ confidence for isolated (long-period binary) sources is $h_0^{95\%} = 8.8\times 10^{-26}$ ($9.4\times 10^{-26}$) at a frequency of $222.6\,\,\mathrm{Hz}$. While this study focuses on ASAF sub-threshold candidates, the method presented could be applied to follow up candidates from future all-sky CW searches, complementing currently existing methods., Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures. Published in PRD

Results are presented for a semi-coherent search for gravitational waves from the low-mass X-ray binary Scorpius X-1 in Observing Run 3 (O3) data from the Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory, using an updated orbital parameter ephemeris and a hidden Markov model (HMM) to allow for spin wandering. The new orbital ephemeris corrects errors in previously published orbital measurements and implies a new search domain. This search domain does not overlap with the one used in the original Scorpius X-1 HMM O3 search. The corrected domain is approximately three times smaller by area in the $T_{\rm asc}$--$P$ plane than the original domain, where $T_{\rm asc}$ and $P$ denote the time of passage through the ascending node and the orbital period respectively, reducing the trials factor and computing time. No evidence is found for gravitational radiation in the search band from 60 Hz to 500 Hz. Upper limits are computed for the characteristic gravitational wave strain. They are consistent with the values from the original Scorpius X-1 HMM O3 search., Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures

The general relativistic formulation of the problem of magnetically confined mountains on neutron stars is presented, and the resulting equations are solved numerically, generalising previous Newtonian calculations. The hydromagnetic structure of the accreted matter and the subsequent magnetic burial of the star's magnetic dipole moment are computed. Overall, it is observed that relativistic corrections reduce the hydromagnetic deformation associated with the mountain. The magnetic field lines are curved more gently than in previous calculations, and the screening of the dipole moment is reduced. Quantitatively, it is found that the dimensionless dipole moment ($m_{\rm d}$) depends on the accreted mass ($M_{\rm a}$) as $m_{\rm d} = -3.2\times10^{3}M_{\rm a}/M_\odot + 1.0$, implying approximately three times less screening compared to the Newtonian theory. Additionally, the characteristic scale height of the mountain, governing the gradients of quantities like pressure, density, and magnetic field strength, reduces by approximately $40\%$ for an isothermal equation of state., Comment: accepted for publication in MNRAS

An individual's opinions about media bias derive from their own independent assessment of media outputs combined with peer pressure from networked political allies and opponents. Here we generalize previous idealized, probabilistic models of the perception formation process, based on a network of Bayesian learners inferring the bias of a coin, by introducing obdurate agents (partisans), whose opinions stay fixed. It is found that even one partisan destabilizes an allies-only network, stopping it from achieving asymptotic learning and forcing persuadable agents to vacillate indefinitely (turbulent nonconvergence) between the true coin bias $\theta_0$ and the partisan's belief $\theta_{\rm p}$. The dwell time $t_{\rm d}$ at the partisan's belief increases, as the partisan fraction $f$ increases, and decreases, when multiple partisans disagree amongst themselves. In opponents-only networks, asymptotic learning occurs, whether or not partisans are present. However, the counterintuitive tendency to reach wrong conclusions first, identified in previous work with zero partisans, does not persist in general for $\theta_0 \neq \theta_{\rm p}$ in complete networks; it is a property of sparsely connected systems (e.g.\ Barab\'{a}si-Albert networks with attachment parameter $\lesssim 10$). In mixed networks containing allies and opponents, partisans drive counterintuitive outcomes, which depend sensitively, on where they reside. A strongly balanced triad exhibits intermittency with a partisan (sudden transitions between long intervals of static beliefs and turbulent nonconvergence) and asymptotic learning without a partisan., Comment: 36 pages, 17 figures

Stochastic temporal wandering of the spin frequency $\nu$ of a rotation-powered pulsar (i.e.~the achromatic component of timing noise unrelated to interstellar propagation) affects the accuracy with which the secular braking torque can be measured. Observational studies confirm that pulsars with anomalous braking indices $\vert n \vert = \vert \nu \ddot{\nu} / \dot{\nu}^2 \vert \gg 1$ exhibit elevated levels of timing noise, where an overdot symbolizes a derivative with respect to time. Here it is shown, through analytic calculations and Monte Carlo simulations involving synthetic data and modern Bayesian timing techniques, that the variance $\langle n^2 \rangle$ of the measured $n$ scales with the square of the timing noise amplitude $\sigma_{\ddot{\nu}}$. The anomalous regime $\langle n^2 \rangle \gg 1$ corresponds to $ \sigma_{\ddot{\nu}}^2 \gg 10^{-60} (\gamma_{\ddot{\nu}}/10^{-6} \, {\rm s^{-1}})^2 (\dot{\nu} / 10^{-14} \, {\rm Hz \, s^{-1}})^4 (\nu / 1 \, {\rm Hz})^{-2} (T_{\rm obs} / 10^8 \, {\rm s}) \, {\rm Hz}^2{\rm s}^{-5 }$, where $\gamma_{\ddot{\nu}}$ is a stellar damping time-scale, and $T_{\rm obs}$ is the total observing time. When the inequality in the above condition is reversed, $n$ is dominated by the secular braking torque, and timing measurements return $n\sim 3$, if the secular braking torque is electromagnetic. The variance $\langle n^2 \rangle$ is greater, when the stochastic process driving spin fluctuations differs from the red noise model (e.g. power-law spectral density) assumed in the timing solution.

Solar flares result from the sudden release of energy deposited by sub-photospheric motions into the magnetic field of the corona. The deposited energy accumulates secularly between events. One may interpret the observed event statistics as resulting from a state-dependent Poisson process, in which the instantaneous flare rate is a function of the stress in the system, and a flare becomes certain as the stress approaches a threshold set by the micro-physics of the flare trigger. If the system is driven fast, and if the threshold is static and uniform globally, a cross-correlation is predicted between the size of a flare and the forward waiting time to the next flare. This cross-correlation is broadly absent from the \emph{Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite} (\emph{GOES}) soft X-ray flare database. One also predicts higher cross-correlations in active regions where the shapes of the waiting time and size distributions match. Again there is no evidence for such an association in the \emph{GOES} data. The data imply at least one of the following: i) the threshold at which a flare is triggered varies in time; ii) the rate at which energy is driven into active regions varies in time; iii) historical flare catalogs are incomplete; or iv) the description of solar flares as resulting from a build-up and release of energy, once a threshold is reached, is incomplete., Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ

The radio pulsar GLEAM-X J162759.5-523504.3 has an extremely long spin period ($P = 1091.17\, \mbox{s}$), and yet seemingly continues to spin down rapidly ($\dot{P} < 1.2 \times 10^{-9}\, \mbox{ss}^{-1}$). The magnetic field strength that is implied, if the source is a neutron star undergoing magnetic dipole braking, could exceed $10^{16}\,\mbox{G}$. This object may therefore be the most magnetised neutron star observed to date. In this paper, a critical analysis of a magnetar interpretation for the source is provided. (i) A minimum polar magnetic field strength of $B \sim 5 \times 10^{15}\,\mbox{G}$ appears to be necessary for the star to activate as a radio pulsar, based on conventional `death valley' assumptions. (ii) Back-extrapolation from magnetic braking and Hall-plastic-Ohm decay suggests that a large angular momentum reservoir was available at birth to support intense field amplification. (iii) The observational absence of X-rays constrains the star's field strength and age, as the competition between heating from field decay and Urca cooling implies a surface luminosity as a function of time. If the object is an isolated, young ($\sim 10\, \mbox{kyr}$) magnetar with a present-day field strength of $B \gtrsim 10^{16}\,\mbox{G}$, the upper limit ($\approx 10^{30}\, \mbox{erg s}^{-1}$) set on its thermal luminosity suggests it is cooling via a direct Urca mechanism., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The coupling between axions and photons modifies Maxwell's equations, introducing a dynamo term in the magnetic induction equation. In neutron stars, for critical values of the axion decay constant and axion mass, the magnetic dynamo mechanism increases the total magnetic energy of the star. We show that this generates substantial internal heating due to enhanced dissipation of crustal electric currents. These mechanisms would lead magnetized neutron stars to increase their magnetic energy and thermal luminosity by several orders of magnitude, in contrast to observations of thermally-emitting neutron stars. To prevent the activation of the dynamo, bounds on the allowed axion parameter space can be derived., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, 1 table + Supplemental Material

We present a search for continuous gravitational wave signals from an unidentified pulsar potentially powering HESS~J1427-608, a spatially unresolved TeV point source detected by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS). The search uses a semi-coherent algorithm, which combines the maximum likelihood $\mathcal{F}$~statistic with a hidden Markov model to efficiently detect and track quasi-monochromatic signals that wander randomly in frequency. It uses data from the second observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory. Multi-wavelength observations of the HESS source are combined with the proprieties of the population of TeV-bright pulsar wind nebulae to constrain the search parameters. We find no evidence of gravitational wave emission from this target. We set upper limits on the characteristic wave strain $h_0^{95\%}$ (for circularly polarized signals) at $95\%$ confidence level in sample sub-bands and interpolate it to estimate the sensitivity in the full band. We find $h_0^{95\%} = 1.3\times 10^{-25}$ near 185~Hz. The implied constraints on the ellipticity and \textit{r}-mode amplitude reach $\epsilon\leq 10^{-5}$ and $\alpha \leq 10^{-3}$ at 200~Hz, respectively., Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures

Detection of continuous gravitational waves from rapidly-spinning neutron stars opens up the possibility of examining their internal physics. We develop a framework that leverages a future continuous gravitational wave detection to infer a neutron star's moment of inertia, equatorial ellipticity, and the component of the magnetic dipole moment perpendicular to its rotation axis. We assume that the neutron star loses rotational kinetic energy through both gravitational wave and electromagnetic radiation, and that the distance to the neutron star can be measured, but do not assume electromagnetic pulsations are observable or a particular neutron star equation of state. We use the Fisher information matrix and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate errors in the inferred parameters, assuming a population of gravitational-wave-emitting neutron stars consistent with the typical parameter domains of continuous gravitational wave searches. After an observation time of one year, the inferred errors for many neutron stars are limited chiefly by the error in the distance to the star. The techniques developed here will be useful if continuous gravitational waves are detected from a radio, X-ray, or gamma-ray pulsar, or else from a compact object with known distance, such as a supernova remnant., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Results are presented for a semi-coherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the millisecond pulsar PSR J0437$-$4715, using a hidden Markov model to track spin wandering, in LIGO data from the third LIGO-Virgo observing run. This is the first search for PSR J0437$-$4715 to cover a wide frequency range from $60$ Hz to $500$ Hz and simultanously accommodate random spin deviations from the secular radio ephemeris. Two searches are performed with plausible coherence times of $10$ days and $30$ days, as the frequency wandering time-scale of the gravitational-wave-emitting quadrupole is unknown. The former analysis yields no surviving candidates, while the latter yields five candidates after the veto procedure. The detection statistic of each of the five survivors is mapped as a function of sky position, in preparation for follow-up analyses in the future, e.g. during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA fourth observing run.

One form of long-term behavior revealed by opinion dynamics simulations is intermittency, where an individual cycles between eras of stable, constant beliefs and turbulent, fluctuating beliefs, for example when inferring the political bias of a media organization. We explore this phenomenon by building an idealized network of Bayesian learners, who infer the bias of a coin from observations of coin tosses and peer pressure from political allies and opponents. Numerical simulations reveal that three types of network structure lead to three different types of intermittency, which are caused by agents ``locking out'' opponents from sure beliefs in specific ways. The probability density functions of the dwell times, over which the learners sustain stable or turbulent beliefs, differ across the three types of intermittency. Hence, one can observe the dwell times of a learner to infer the underlying network structure, at least in principle., Comment: 29 pages, 18 figures. Published in Physica A

Following up large numbers of candidates in continuous gravitational wave searches presents a challenge, particularly in regard to computational power and the time required to manually scrutinize each of the candidates. It is important to design and test good follow-up procedures that are safe (i.e., minimize false dismissals) and computationally efficient across many search configurations. We investigate two follow-up procedures, or "vetoes," both of which exploit the Doppler modulation predicted in astrophysical signals. In particular, we introduce the concept of using an effective point spread function as part of our veto criteria. We take advantage of a well-established semicoherent search algorithm based on a hidden Markov model to study various search configurations and to generalize the veto criteria by considering the overall veto performance in terms of efficiency and safety. The results can serve as a guideline for follow-up studies in future continuous gravitational wave searches using a hidden Markov model algorithm. The results also apply qualitatively to other semicoherent search algorithms., Comment: 24 pages, 15 figures

A population of super-massive black hole binaries is expected to generate a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) in the pulsar timing array (PTA) frequency range of $10^{-9}$--$10^{-7}$ Hz. Detection of this signal is a current observational goal and so predictions of its characteristics are of significant interest. In this work we use super-massive black hole binary mergers from the MassiveBlackII simulation to estimate the characteristic strain of the stochastic background. We examine both a gravitational wave driven model of binary evolution and a model which also includes the effects of stellar scattering and a circumbinary gas disk. Results are consistent with PTA upper limits and similar to estimates in the literature. The characteristic strain at a reference frequency of $1 yr^{-1}$ is found to be $A_{yr^{-1}} = 6.9 \times 10^{-16}$ and $A_{yr^{-1}} = 6.4 \times 10^{-16}$ in the gravitational-wave driven and stellar scattering/gas disk cases, respectively. Using the latter approach, our models show that the SGWB is mildly suppressed compared to the purely gravitational wave driven model as frequency decreases inside the PTA frequency band., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Radio pulsar glitches probe far-from-equilibrium processes involving stress accumulation and relaxation in neutron star interiors. Previous studies of glitch rates have focused on individual pulsars with as many recorded glitches as possible. In this work we analyze glitch rates using all available data including objects that have glitched never or once. We assume the glitch rate follows a homogeneous Poisson process, and therefore exclude pulsars which exhibit quasiperiodic glitching behavior. Calculating relevant Bayes factors shows that a model in which the glitch rate $\lambda$ scales as a power of the characteristic age $\tau$ is preferred over models which depend arbitrarily on powers of the spin frequency $\nu$ and/or its time derivative $\dot{\nu}$. For $\lambda = A (\tau/\tau\vref)^{-\gamma}$, where $\tau_{\rm ref}=1\ {\rm yr}$ is a reference time, the posterior distributions are unimodal with $A=\ModelAAglitch\ \rm{yr}^{-1}$, and $\gamma=\ModelAgammaglitch$. Importantly, the data exclude with 99\% confidence the possibility $\gamma=1$ canvassed in the literature. When objects with zero recorded glitches are included, the age-based rate law is still preferred and the posteriors change to give $A=\ModelAAall\ \rm{yr}^{-1}$, and $\gamma=\ModelAgammaall$. The updated estimates still support increased glitch activity for younger pulsars, while demonstrating that the large number of objects with zero glitches contain important statistical information about the rate, provided that they are part of the same population as opposed to a disjoint population which never glitches for some unknown physical reason., Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Gravitational-wave observatories around the world are searching for continuous waves: persistent signals from sources such as spinning neutron stars. These searches use sophisticated statistical techniques to look for weak signals in noisy data. In this paper, we demonstrate these techniques using a table-top model gravitational-wave detector: a Michelson interferometer where sound is used as an analog for gravitational waves. Using signal processing techniques from continuous-wave searches, we demonstrate the recovery of tones with constant and wandering frequencies. We also explore the use of the interferometer as a teaching tool for educators in physics and electrical engineering by using it as an "optical microphone" to capture music and speech. A range of filtering techniques used to recover signals from noisy data are detailed in the Supplementary Material. Here, we present highlights of our results using a combined notch plus Wiener filter and the statistical log minimum mean-square error (logMMSE) estimator. Using these techniques, we easily recover recordings of simple chords and drums, but complex music and speech are more challenging. This demonstration can be used by educators in undergraduate laboratories and can be adapted for communicating gravitational-wave and signal-processing topics to non-specialist audiences., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures. Supplementary Material: 15 pages, 6 figures. To be published in the American Journal of Physics (accepted December 2021)

The $\mathcal{F}$-statistic is a detection statistic used widely in searches for continuous gravitational waves with terrestrial, long-baseline interferometers. A new implementation of the $\mathcal{F}$-statistic is presented which accelerates the existing "resampling" algorithm using graphics processing units (GPUs). The new implementation runs between 10 and 100 times faster than the existing implementation on central processing units without sacrificing numerical accuracy. The utility of the GPU implementation is demonstrated on a pilot narrowband search for four newly discovered millisecond pulsars in the globular cluster Omega Centauri using data from the second Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory observing run. The computational cost is $17.2$ GPU-hours using the new implementation, compared to 1092 core-hours with the existing implementation., Comment: Accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravity. 19 pages, 4 figures

Perceptions of political bias in the media are formed directly, through the independent consumption of the published outputs of a media organization, and indirectly, through observing the collective responses of political allies and opponents to the same published outputs. A network of Bayesian learners is constructed to model this system, in which the bias perceived by each agent obeys a probability density function, which is updated according to Bayes's theorem given data about the published outputs and the beliefs of the agent's political allies and opponents. The Bayesian framework allows for uncertain beliefs, multimodal probability distribution functions, and antagonistic interactions with opponents, not just cooperation with allies. Numerical simulations are performed to test the idealized example of inferring the bias of a coin. It is found that some agents converge on the wrong conclusion faster than others converge on the right conclusion under a surprisingly broad range of conditions, when antagonistic interactions are present which "lock out" some agents from the truth, e.g. in Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is also found that structurally unbalanced networks routinely experience turbulent nonconvergence, where some agents fail to achieve a steady-state belief, e.g. when they are allies of two agents who are opponents themselves. The subtle phenomenon of long-term intermittency is also explored., Comment: 38 pages, 30 figures, 8 tables. Published in Physica A

We report on a timing programme of 74 young pulsars that have been observed by the Parkes 64-m radio telescope over the past decade. Using modern Bayesian timing techniques, we have measured the properties of 124 glitches in 52 of these pulsars, of which 74 are new. We demonstrate that the glitch sample is complete to fractional increases in spin-frequency greater than $\Delta\nu^{90\%}_{g}/\nu \approx 8.1 \times 10^{-9}$. We measure values of the braking index, $n$, in 33 pulsars. In most of these pulsars, their rotational evolution is dominated by episodes of spin-down with $n > 10$, punctuated by step changes in the spin-down rate at the time of a large glitch. The step changes are such that, averaged over the glitches, the long-term $n$ is small. We find a near one-to-one relationship between the inter-glitch value of $n$ and the change in spin-down of the previous glitch divided by the inter-glitch time interval. We discuss the results in the context of a range of physical models., Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures and 9 tables. Published in MNRAS. (Fixed typo in the abstract and conclusion)

The classic, two-component, crust-superfluid model of a neutron star can be formulated as a noise-driven, linear dynamical system, in which the angular velocities of the crust and superfluid are tracked using a Kalman filter applied to electromagnetic pulse timing data and gravitational wave data, when available. Here it is shown how to combine the marginal likelihood of the Kalman filter and nested sampling to estimate full posterior distributions of the six model parameters, extending previous analyses based on a maximum-likelihood approach. The method is tested across an astrophysically plausible parameter domain using Monte Carlo simulations. It recovers the injected parameters to $\lesssim 10$ per cent for time series containing $\sim 10^3$ samples, typical of long-term pulsar timing campaigns. It runs efficiently in $\mathcal O(1)$ CPU-hr for data sets of the above size. In a present-day observational scenario, when electromagnetic data are available only, the method accurately estimates three parameters: the relaxation time, the ensemble-averaged spin-down of the system, and the amplitude of the stochastic torques applied to the crust. In a future observational scenario, where gravitational wave data are also available, the method also estimates the ratio between the moments of inertia of the crust and the superfluid, the amplitude of the stochastic torque applied to the superfluid, and the crust-superfluid lag. These empirical results are consistent with a formal identifiability analysis of the linear dynamical system., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, accepted to MNRAS

A quark-magnetic Ginzburg-Landau (qHGL) gradient expansion of the free energy of two-flavor inhomogeneous quark matter in a magnetic field $H$ is derived analytically. It can be applied away from the Lifshitz point, generalizing standard Ginzburg-Landau techniques. The thermodynamic potential is written as a sum of the thermal contribution, the non-thermal lowest Landau level contribution, and the non-thermal qHGL functional, which handles any arbitrary position-dependent periodic modulation of the chiral condensate as an input. The qHGL approximation has two main practical features: (1) it is fast to compute; (2) it applies to non-plane-wave modulations such as solitons even when the amplitude of the condensate and its gradients are large (unlike standard Ginzburg-Landau techniques). It agrees with the output of numerical techniques based on standard regularization schemes and reduces to known results at zero temperature ($T = 0$) in benchmark studies. It is found that the region of the $\mu$-$T$ plane (where $\mu$ is the chemical potential) occupied by the inhomogeneous phase expands, as $H$ increases and $T$ decreases., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in EPJA

Stress accumulation-relaxation meta-models of pulsar glitches make precise, microphysics-agnostic predictions of long-term glitch statistics, which can be falsified by existing and future timing data. Previous meta-models assume that glitches are triggered by an avalanche process, e.g. involving superfluid vortices, and that the probability density function (PDF) of the avalanche sizes is history-independent and specified exogenously. Here a recipe is proposed to generate the avalanche sizes endogenously in a history-dependent manner, by tracking the thresholds of occupied vortex pinning sites as a function of time. Vortices unpin spasmodically from sites with thresholds below a global, time-dependent stress and repin at sites with thresholds above the global stress, imbuing the system with long-term memory. The meta-model predicts PDFs, auto- and cross-correlations for glitch sizes and waiting times, which are provisionally inconsistent with current observations, unlike some previous meta-models (e.g. state dependent Poisson process), whose predictions are consistent. The theoretical implications are intriguing, albeit uncertain, because history-dependent avalanches embody faithfully the popular, idealized understanding in the literature of how vortex unpinning operates as a driven, stochastic process. The meta-model predicts aftershocks, which occur with larger than average sizes and longer than average waiting times after the largest, system-resetting glitches. This prediction will be tested, once more data are generated by the next generation of pulsar timing campaigns., Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ

In certain pulsar timing experiments, where observations are scheduled approximately periodically (e.g. daily), timing models with significantly different frequencies (including but not limited to glitch models with different frequency increments) return near-equivalent timing residuals. The average scheduling aperiodicity divided by the phase error due to time-of-arrival uncertainties is a useful indicator of when the degeneracy is important. Synthetic data are used to explore the effect of this degeneracy systematically. It is found that phase-coherent tempo2 or temponest-based approaches are biased sometimes toward reporting small glitch sizes regardless of the true glitch size. Local estimates of the spin frequency alleviate this bias. A hidden Markov model is free from bias towards small glitches and announces explicitly the existence of multiple glitch solutions but sometimes fails to recover the correct glitch size. Two glitches in the UTMOST public data release are re-assessed, one in PSR J1709$-$4429 at MJD 58178 and the other in PSR J1452$-$6036 at MJD 58600. The estimated fractional frequency jump in PSR J1709$-$4429 is revised upward from $\Delta f/f = (54.6\pm 1.0) \times 10^{-9}$ to $\Delta f/f = (2432.2 \pm 0.1) \times 10^{-9}$ with the aid of additional data from the Parkes radio telescope. We find that the available UTMOST data for PSR J1452$-$6036 are consistent with $\Delta f/f = 270 \times 10^{-9} + N/(fT)$ with $N = 0,1,2$, where $T \approx 1\,\text{sidereal day}$ is the observation scheduling period. Data from the Parkes radio telescope can be included, and the $N = 0$ case is selected unambiguously with a combined dataset., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 16 pages, 12 figures

We pursue a novel strategy towards a first detection of continuous gravitational waves from rapidly-rotating deformed neutron stars. Computational power is focused on a narrow region of signal parameter space selected by a strategically-chosen benchmark. We search data from the 2nd observing run of the LIGO Observatory with an optimised analysis run on graphics processing units. While no continuous waves are detected, the search achieves a sensitivity to gravitational wave strain of $h_0 = 1.01{\times}10^{-25}$ at 90% confidence, 24% to 69% better than past searches of the same parameter space. Constraints on neutron star deformity are within theoretical maxima, thus a detection by this search was not inconceivable., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication in Physical Review D; v2 corrects number of segments stated in Section IV

The global gravitational-wave detector network achieves higher detection rates, better parameter estimates, and more accurate sky localisation, as the number of detectors, $\mathcal{I}$ increases. This paper quantifies network performance as a function of $\mathcal{I}$ for BayesWave, a source-agnostic, wavelet-based, Bayesian algorithm which distinguishes between true astrophysical signals and instrumental glitches. Detection confidence is quantified using the signal-to-glitch Bayes factor, $\mathcal{B}_{\mathcal{S},\mathcal{G}}$. An analytic scaling is derived for $\mathcal{B}_{\mathcal{S},\mathcal{G}}$ versus $\mathcal{I}$, the number of wavelets, and the network signal-to-noise ratio, SNR$_\text{net}$, which is confirmed empirically via injections into detector noise of the Hanford-Livingston (HL), Hanford-Livingston-Virgo (HLV), and Hanford-Livingston-KAGRA-Virgo (HLKV) networks at projected sensitivities for the fourth observing run (O4). The empirical and analytic scalings are consistent; $\mathcal{B}_{\mathcal{S},\mathcal{G}}$ increases with $\mathcal{I}$. The accuracy of waveform reconstruction is quantified using the overlap between injected and recovered waveform, $\mathcal{O}_\text{net}$. The HLV and HLKV network recovers $87\%$ and $86\%$ of the injected waveforms with $\mathcal{O}_\text{net}>0.8$ respectively, compared to $81\%$ with the HL network. The accuracy of BayesWave sky localisation is $\approx 10$ times better for the HLV network than the HL network, as measured by the search area, $\mathcal{A}$, and the sky areas contained within $50\%$ and $90\%$ confidence intervals. Marginal improvement in sky localisation is also observed with the addition of KAGRA., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review D

Isolated neutron stars are prime targets for continuous-wave (CW) searches by ground-based gravitational$-$wave interferometers. Results are presented from a CW search targeting ten pulsars. The search uses a semicoherent algorithm, which combines the maximum-likelihood $\mathcal{F}$-statistic with a hidden Markov model (HMM) to efficiently detect and track quasi$-$monochromatic signals which wander randomly in frequency. The targets, which are associated with TeV sources detected by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.), are chosen to test for gravitational radiation from young, energetic pulsars with strong $\mathrm{\gamma}$-ray emission, and take maximum advantage of the frequency tracking capabilities of HMM compared to other CW search algorithms. The search uses data from the second observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (aLIGO). It scans 1$-$Hz sub-bands around $f_*$, 4$f_*$/3, and 2$f_*$, where $f_*$ denotes the star's rotation frequency, in order to accommodate a physically plausible frequency mismatch between the electromagnetic and gravitational-wave emission. The 24 sub-bands searched in this study return 5,256 candidates above the Gaussian threshold with a false alarm probability of 1$\%$ per sub-band per target. Only 12 candidates survive the three data quality vetoes which are applied to separate non$-$Gaussian artifacts from true astrophysical signals. CW searches using the data from subsequent observing runs will clarify the status of the remaining candidates., Comment: 28 pages, 22 figures; accepted for publication in Physical Review D

It is an open challenge to estimate systematically the physical parameters of neutron star interiors from pulsar timing data while separating spin wandering intrinsic to the pulsar (achromatic timing noise) from measurement noise and chromatic timing noise (due to propagation effects). In this paper we formulate the classic two-component, crust-superfluid model of neutron star interiors as a noise-driven, linear dynamical system and use a state-space-based expectation-maximization method to estimate the system parameters using gravitational-wave and electromagnetic timing data. Monte Carlo simulations show that we can accurately estimate all six parameters of the two-component model provided that electromagnetic measurements of the crust angular velocity, and gravitational-wave measurements of the core angular velocity, are both available. When only electromagnetic data are available we can recover the overall relaxation time-scale, the ensemble-averaged spin-down rate, and the strength of the white-noise torque on the crust. However, the estimates of the secular torques on the two components and white noise torque on the superfluid are biased significantly., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The gravitational wave event GW190521 involves the merger of two black holes of $\sim 85\text{M}_\odot$ and $\sim 66\text{M}_\odot$ forming an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) of mass $\sim 142\text{M}_\odot$. Both progenitors are challenging to explain within standard stellar evolution as they are within the upper black-hole mass gap. We propose a dynamical formation pathway for this IMBH based on multiple mergers in the core of a globular cluster. We identify such scenarios from analysis of a set of 58 N-body simulations using \texttt{NBODY6-gpu}. In one of our simulations, we observe a stellar black hole undergoing a chain of seven binary mergers within 6 Gyr, attaining a final mass of $97.8\text{M}_\odot$. We discuss the dynamical interactions that lead to the final IMBH product, as well as the evolution of the black hole population in that simulation. We explore statistically the effects of gravitational recoil on the viability of such hierarchical mergers. From the analysis of all 58 simulations we observe additional smaller chains, tentatively inferring that an IMBH formation through hierarchical mergers is expected in the lifetime of a median mass globular cluster with probability $0.01 \lesssim p \lesssim 0.1$ without gravitational merger recoil. Using this order-of-magnitude estimate we show our results are broadly consistent with the rate implied by GW190521, assuming that gravitational recoil ejection of progenitors has a low probability. We discuss implications for future gravitational wave detections, emphasising the importance of studying such formation pathways for BHs within the upper mass gap as a means to constrain such modelling., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, Published in The Astrophysical Journal (url = https://dx.doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac9d95)

Many millisecond pulsars are thought to be old neutron stars spun up (`recycled') during an earlier accretion phase. They typically have relatively weak ($\lesssim 10^{9} \text{ G}$) dipole field strengths, consistent with accretion-induced magnetic burial. Recent data from the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer indicate that hot spots atop the recycled pulsar PSR J0030$+$0451 are not antipodal, so that the magnetic field cannot be that of a centered dipole. In this paper it is shown that multipolarity is naturally expected in the burial scenario because of equatorial field line compression. Grad-Shafranov equilibria are constructed to show how magnetic multipole moments can be calculated in terms of various properties, such as the amount of accreted mass and the crustal equation of state., Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The growing number of black hole binary (BHB) mergers detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) have the potential to enable an unprecedented characterization of the physical processes and astrophysical conditions that govern the formation of compact binaries. In this paper, we focus on investigating the dynamical formation of BHBs in dense star clusters through a state-of-art set of 58 direct N-body simulations with N <= 200,000 particles which include stellar evolution, gravitational braking, orbital decay through gravitational radiation and galactic tidal interactions. The simulations encompass a range of initial conditions representing typical young globular clusters, including the presence of primordial binaries. The systems are simulated for ~ 12 Gyr. The dataset yields 117 BHB gravitational wave events, with 97 binaries merging within their host cluster, and 20 merging after having been ejected. Only 8% of all ejected BHBs merge within the age of the Universe. Systems in this merging subset tend to have smaller separations and larger eccentricities, as this combination of parameters results in greater emission of gravitational radiation. We confirm known trends from Monte Carlo simulations, such as the anti-correlation between the mass of the binary and age of the cluster. In addition, we highlight for the first time a difference at low values of the mass ratio distribution between in-cluster and ejected mergers. However, the results depend on assumptions on the strength of gravitational wave recoils, thus in-cluster mergers cannot be ruled out at a significant level of confidence. A more substantial catalogue of BHB mergers and a more extensive library of N-body simulations are needed to constrain the origin of the observed events., Comment: accepted for publication in PASA

Low mass X-ray binaries are prime targets for continuous gravitational wave searches by ground-based interferometers. Results are presented from a search for five low-mass X-ray binaries whose spin frequencies and orbital elements are measured accurately from X-ray pulsations: HETE J1900.1-2455, IGR J00291+5934, SAX J1808.4-3658, XTE J0929-314, and XTE J1814-338. Data are analysed from Observing Run 2 of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO). The search algorithm uses a hidden Markov model to track spin wandering, the $\mathcal{J}$-statistic maximum likelihood matched filter to track orbital phase, and a suite of five vetoes to reject artefacts from non-Gaussian noise. The search yields a number of low-significance, above threshold candidates consistent with the selected false-alarm probability. The candidates will be followed up in subsequent observing runs., Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures; accepted for publication in Physical Review D

A microphysics-agnostic meta-model of rotational glitches in rotation-powered pulsars is developed, wherein the globally averaged internal stress accumulates as a Brownian process between glitches, and a glitch is triggered once a critical threshold is surmounted. Precise, falsifiable predictions are made regarding long-term event statistics in individual pulsars. For example, the Spearman cross-correlation coefficient between the size of a glitch and the waiting time until the next glitch should exceed 0.25 in all pulsars. Among the six pulsars with the most recorded glitches, PSR J0537$-$6910 and PSR J0835$-$4510 are consistent with the predictions of the meta-model, while PSR J1740$-$3015 and PSR J0631$+$1036 are not. PSR J0534$+$2200 and PSR J1341$-$6220 are only consistent with the meta-model, if there exists an undetected population of small glitches with small waiting times, which we do not resolve. The results are compared with a state-dependent Poisson process, another microphysics-agnostic meta-model in the literature. The results are also applied briefly to recent pulse-to-pulse observations of PSRJ0835$-$4510, which appear to reveal evidence for a negative fluctuation in rotation frequency just prior to the 2016 glitch., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Persistent gravitational waves from rapidly rotating neutron stars, such as those found in some young supernova remnants, may fall in the sensitivity band of the advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO). Searches for these signals are computationally challenging, as the frequency and frequency derivative are unknown and evolve rapidly due to the youth of the source. A hidden Markov model (HMM), combined with a maximum-likelihood matched filter, tracks rapid frequency evolution semi-coherently in a computationally efficient manner. We present the results of an HMM search targeting 12 young supernova remnants in data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. Six targets produce candidates that are above the search threshold and survive pre-defined data quality vetoes. However, follow-up analyses of these candidates show that they are all consistent with instrumental noise artefacts., Comment: 14 pages, 18 figures

The current gravitational wave detectors have identified a surprising population of heavy stellar mass black holes, and an even larger population of coalescing neutron stars. The first observations have led to many dramatic discoveries and the confirmation of general relativity in very strong gravitational fields. The future of gravitational wave astronomy looks bright, especially if additional detectors with greater sensitivity, broader bandwidth, and better global coverage can be implemented. The first discoveries add impetus to gravitational wave detectors designed to detect in the nHz, mHz and kHz frequency bands. This paper reviews the century-long struggle that led to the recent discoveries, and reports on designs and possibilities for future detectors. The benefits of future detectors in the Asian region are discussed, including analysis of the benefits of a detector located in Australia., Comment: Article for the AAPPS bulletin

The past four years have seen a scientific revolution through the birth of a new field: gravitational-wave astronomy. The first detection of gravitational waves---recognised by the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics---provided unprecedented tests of general relativity while unveiling a previously unknown class of massive black holes, thirty times more massive than the Sun. The subsequent detection of gravitational waves from a merging binary neutron star confirmed the hypothesised connection between binary neutron stars and short gamma-ray bursts while providing an independent measurement of the expansion of the Universe. The discovery enabled precision measurement of the speed of gravity while shedding light on the origin of heavy elements. At the time of writing, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and its European partner, Virgo, have published the detection of eleven gravitational-wave events. New, not-yet-published detections are announced on a nearly weekly basis. This fast-growing catalogue of gravitational-wave transients is expected to yield insights into a number of topics, from the equation of state of matter at supra-nuclear densities to the fate of massive stars. The science potential of 3G observatories is enormous, enabling measurements of gravitational waves from the edge of the Universe and precise determination of the neutron star equation of state. Australia is well-positioned to help develop the required technology. The Mid-term Review for the Decadal plan for Australian astronomy 2016-2025 should consider investment in a scoping study for an Australian Gravitational-Wave Pathfinder that develops and validates core technologies required for the global 3G detector network., Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures

Among the five pulsars with the most recorded rotational glitches, only PSR J0534$+$2200 is found to have an autocorrelation between consecutive glitch sizes which differs significantly from zero (Spearman correlation coefficient $\rho=-0.46$, p-value $=0.046$). No statistically compelling autocorrelations between consecutive waiting times are found. The autocorrelation observations are interpreted within the framework of a predictive meta-model describing stress-release in terms of a state-dependent Poisson process. Specific combinations of size and waiting time autocorrelations are identified, alongside combinations of cross-correlations and size and waiting time distributions, that are allowed or excluded within the meta-model. For example, future observations of any "quasiperiodic" glitching pulsar, such as PSR J0537$-$6910, should not reveal a positive waiting time autocorrelation. The implications for microphysical models of the stress-release process driving pulsar glitches are discussed briefly., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. MNRAS accepted

Searches for continuous gravitational waves from rapidly spinning neutron stars normally assume that the star rotates about one of its principal axes of moment of inertia, and hence the gravitational radiation emits only at twice the spin frequency of the star, $2f_*$. The superfluid interior of a star pinned to the crust along an axis nonaligned with any of its principal axes allows the star to emit gravitational waves at both $f_*$ and $2f_*$, even without free precession, a phenomenon not clearly observed in known pulsars. The dual-harmonic emission mechanism motivates searches combining the two frequency components of a signal to improve signal-to-noise ratio. We describe an economical, semicoherent, dual-harmonic search method, combined with a maximum likelihood coherent matched filter, F-statistic, and improved from an existing hidden Markov model (HMM) tracking scheme to track two frequency components simultaneously. We validate the method and demonstrate its performance through Monte Carlo simulations. We find that for sources emitting gravitational waves at both $f_*$ and $2f_*$, the rate of correctly recovering synthetic signals (i.e., detection efficiency), at a given false alarm probability, can be improved by $\sim 10$%-70% by tracking two frequencies simultaneously compared to tracking a single component only. For sources emitting at $2f_*$ only, dual-harmonic tracking only leads to minor sensitivity loss, producing $\lesssim 10\%$ lower detection efficiency than tracking a single component. In directed continuous-wave searches where $f_*$ is unknown and hence the full frequency band is searched, the computationally efficient HMM tracking algorithm provides an option of conducting both the dual-harmonic search and the conventional single frequency tracking to obtain optimal sensitivity, with a typical run time of $\sim 10^3$ core-hr for one year's observation.

A number of detections have been made in the past few years of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences. While there exist well-understood waveform models for signals from compact binary coalescences, many sources of gravitational waves are not well modeled, including potential long-transient signals from a binary neutron star post-merger remnant. Searching for these sources requires robust detection algorithms that make minimal assumptions about any potential signals. In this paper, we compare two unmodeled search schemes for long-transient gravitational waves, operating on cross-power spectrograms. One is an efficient algorithm first implemented for continuous wave searches, based on a hidden Markov model. The other is a seedless clustering method, which has been used in transient gravitational wave analysis in the past. We quantify the performance of both algorithms, including sensitivity and computational cost, by simulating synthetic signals with a special focus on sources like binary neutron star post-merger remnants. We demonstrate that the hidden Markov model tracking is a good option in model-agnostic searches for low signal-to-noise ratio signals. We also show that it can outperform the seedless method for certain categories of signals while also being computationally more efficient., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures

Core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are a potential source for ground-based gravitational wave detectors, as their predicted emission peaks in the detectors' frequency band. Typical searches for gravitational wave bursts reconstruct signals using wavelets. However, as CCSN signals contain multiple complex features in the time-frequency domain, these techniques often struggle to reconstruct the entire signal. An alternative method developed in recent years involves applying principal component analysis (PCA) to a set of simulated CCSN models. This technique enables model selection between astrophysical CCSN models as well as waveform reconstruction. However, PCA faces its own difficulties, such as being unable to reconstruct signals longer than the simulations; many CCSN simulations are stopped before the emission peaks due to insufficient computational resources. In this study, we show how combining PCA with dynamic time warping (DTW) improves the reconstruction of CCSN gravitational wave signals in Gaussian noise characteristic of Advanced LIGO at design sensitivity. For the waveforms used in this analysis, we find that the number of PCs needed to represent 90% of the data is reduced from nine to four by applying DTW, and that the match between the original and reconstructed waveforms improves for signal-to-noise ratios in the range [0,50].