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Abstract Background We estimated the prevalence and mortality risks of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US adult population. Methods We linked three waves of pre-bronchodilator spirometry data from the US National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2007–2012) with the National Death Index. The analytic sample included adults ages 20 to 79 without missing data on age, sex, height, BMI, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. We defined COPD (GOLD 1, 2, and 3–4) and PRISm using FEV1/FVC cut points by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the prevalence of GOLD stages and PRISm by covariates across the three waves. We estimated adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks by COPD stage and PRISm using all three waves combined. Results Prevalence of COPD and PRISm from 2007–2012 ranged from 13.1%-14.3% and 9.6%-10.2%, respectively. We found significant differences in prevalence by sex, age, smoking status, and race/ethnicity. Males had higher rates of COPD regardless of stage, while females had higher rates of PRISm. COPD prevalence increased with age, but not PRISm, which was highest among middle-aged individuals. Compared to current and never smokers, former smokers showed lower rates of PRISm but higher rates of GOLD 1. COPD prevalence was highest among non-Hispanic White individuals, and PRISm was notably higher among non-Hispanic Black individuals (range 31.4%-37.4%). We found associations between PRISm and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.3 95% CI: 1.9—2.9) and various cause-specific deaths (HR ranges: 2.0–5.3). We also found associations between GOLD 2 (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.7–2.6) or higher (HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.7–6.5) and all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality risk varied within COPD stages but typically increased with higher GOLD stage. Conclusions The prevalence of COPD and PRISm remained stable from 2007–2012. Greater attention should be paid to the potential impacts of PRISm due to its higher prevalence in minority groups and its associations with mortality across various causes including cancer.

Abstract Background Small airways disease (SAD) is a major cause of airflow obstruction in COPD patients and has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Although the amount of SAD in the lungs can be quantified using our Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) approach, the full breadth of this readout as a measure of emphysema and COPD progression has yet to be explored. We evaluated topological features of PRM-derived normal parenchyma and SAD as surrogates of emphysema and predictors of spirometric decline. Methods PRM metrics of normal lung (PRMNorm) and functional SAD (PRMfSAD) were generated from CT scans collected as part of the COPDGene study (n = 8956). Volume density (V) and Euler-Poincaré Characteristic (χ) image maps, measures of the extent and coalescence of pocket formations (i.e., topologies), respectively, were determined for both PRMNorm and PRMfSAD. Association with COPD severity, emphysema, and spirometric measures were assessed via multivariable regression models. Readouts were evaluated as inputs for predicting FEV1 decline using a machine learning model. Results Multivariable cross-sectional analysis of COPD subjects showed that V and χ measures for PRMfSAD and PRMNorm were independently associated with the amount of emphysema. Readouts χfSAD (β of 0.106, p

Abstract Background Quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIA) are an automated computed tomography (CT) finding of early parenchymal lung disease, associated with worse lung function, reduced exercise capacity, increased respiratory symptoms, and death. The metabolomic perturbations associated with QIA are not well known. We sought to identify plasma metabolites associated with QIA in smokers. We also sought to identify shared and differentiating metabolomics features between QIA and emphysema, another smoking-related advanced radiographic abnormality. Methods In 928 former and current smokers in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD cohort, we measured QIA and emphysema using an automated local density histogram method and generated metabolite profiles from plasma samples using liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (Metabolon). We assessed the associations between metabolite levels and QIA using multivariable linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years, and inhaled corticosteroid use, at a Benjamini–Hochberg False Discovery Rate p-value of ≤ 0.05. Using multinomial regression models adjusted for these covariates, we assessed the associations between metabolite levels and the following CT phenotypes: QIA-predominant, emphysema-predominant, combined-predominant, and neither- predominant. Pathway enrichment analyses were performed using MetaboAnalyst. Results We found 85 metabolites significantly associated with QIA, with overrepresentation of the nicotinate and nicotinamide, histidine, starch and sucrose, pyrimidine, phosphatidylcholine, lysophospholipid, and sphingomyelin pathways. These included metabolites involved in inflammation and immune response, extracellular matrix remodeling, surfactant, and muscle cachexia. There were 75 metabolites significantly different between QIA-predominant and emphysema-predominant phenotypes, with overrepresentation of the phosphatidylethanolamine, nicotinate and nicotinamide, aminoacyl-tRNA, arginine, proline, alanine, aspartate, and glutamate pathways. Conclusions Metabolomic correlates may lend insight to the biologic perturbations and pathways that underlie clinically meaningful quantitative CT measurements like QIA in smokers.

SETTING: Household air pollution (HAP) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are both major public health problems, reported to cause around 4 million and 3 million deaths every year, respectively. The great majority of these deaths, as well as the burden of disease during life is felt by people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).OBJECTIVE and DESIGN: The extent to which HAP causes COPD is controversial; we therefore undertook this review to offer a viewpoint on this from the Global Initiative for COPD (GOLD).RESULTS: We find that while COPD is well-defined in many studies on COPD and HAP, there are major limitations to the definition and measurement of HAP. It is thus difficult to disentangle HAP from other features of poverty that are themselves associated with COPD. We identify other limitations to primary research studies, including the use of cross-sectional designs that limit causal inference.CONCLUSION: There is substantial preventable morbidity and mortality associated with HAP, COPD and poverty, separately and together. Although it may not be possible to define clear causal links between HAP and COPD, there is a clear urgency to reduce the avoidable burden of disease these inflict on the world´s poor.

Abstract The consequences of returning infectious pathogen test results identified incidentally in research studies have not been well-studied. Concerns include identification of an important health issue for individuals, accuracy of research test results, public health impact, potential emotional distress for participants, and need for IRB permissions. Blood RNA-sequencing analysis for non-human RNA in 3984 participants from the COPDGene study identified 228 participants with evidence suggestive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We hypothesized that incidentally discovered HCV results could be effectively returned to COPDGene participants with attention to the identified concerns. In conjunction with a COPDGene Participant Advisory Panel, we developed and obtained IRB approval for a process of returning HCV research results and an HCV Follow-Up Study questionnaire to capture information about previous HCV diagnosis and treatment information and participant reactions to return of HCV results. During phone calls following the initial HCV notification letter, 84 of 124 participants who could be contacted (67.7%) volunteered that they had been previously diagnosed with HCV infection. Thirty-one of these 124 COPDGene participants were enrolled in the HCV Follow-Up Study. Five of the 31 HCV Follow-Up Study participants did not report a previous diagnosis of HCV. For four of these participants, subsequent clinical HCV testing confirmed HCV infection. Thus, 30/31 Follow-Up Study participants had confirmed HCV diagnoses, supporting the accuracy of the HCV research test results. However, the limited number of participants in the Follow-Up Study precludes an accurate assessment of the false-positive and false-negative rates of the research RNA sequencing evidence for HCV. Most HCV Follow-Up Study participants (29/31) were supportive of returning HCV research results, and most participants found the process for returning HCV results to be informative and not upsetting. Newly diagnosed participants were more likely to be pleased to learn about a potentially curable infection (p = 0.027) and showed a trend toward being more frightened by the potential health risks of HCV (p = 0.11). We conclude that HCV results identified incidentally during transcriptomic research studies can be successfully returned to research study participants with a carefully designed process.

Abstract Accelerated progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased risks of hospitalization and death. Prognostic insights into mechanisms and markers of progression could facilitate development of disease-modifying therapies. Although individual biomarkers exhibit some predictive value, performance is modest and their univariate nature limits network-level insights. To overcome these limitations and gain insights into early pathways associated with rapid progression, we measured 1305 peripheral blood and 48 bronchoalveolar lavage proteins in individuals with COPD [n = 45, mean initial forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 75.6 ± 17.4% predicted]. We applied a data-driven analysis pipeline, which enabled identification of protein signatures that predicted individuals at-risk for accelerated lung function decline (FEV1 decline ≥ 70 mL/year) ~ 6 years later, with high accuracy. Progression signatures suggested that early dysregulation in elements of the complement cascade is associated with accelerated decline. Our results propose potential biomarkers and early aberrant signaling mechanisms driving rapid progression in COPD.

Summary: Background: In this study, we compare management of patients with high-risk chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the United States to national and international guidelines and quality standards, including the COllaboratioN on QUality improvement initiative for achieving Excellence in STandards of COPD care (CONQUEST). Methods: Patients were identified from the DARTNet Practice Performance Registry and categorized into three high-risk cohorts in each year from 2011 to 2019: newly diagnosed (≤12 months after diagnosis), already diagnosed, and patients with potential undiagnosed COPD. Patients were considered high-risk if they had a history of exacerbations or likely exacerbations (respiratory consult with prescribed medication). Descriptive statistics for 2019 are reported, along with annual trends. Findings: In 2019, 10% (n = 16,610/167,197) of patients met high-risk criteria. Evidence of spirometry for diagnosis was low; in 2019, 81% (n = 1228/1523) of patients newly diagnosed at high-risk had no record of spirometry/peak expiratory flow in the 12 months pre- or post-diagnosis and 43% (n = 651/1523) had no record of COPD symptom review. Among those newly and already diagnosed at high-risk, 52% (n = 4830/9350) had no evidence of COPD medication. Interpretation: Findings suggest inconsistent adherence to evidence-based guidelines, and opportunities to improve identification, documentation of services, assessment, therapeutic intervention, and follow-up of patients with COPD. Funding: This study was conducted by the Observational and Pragmatic Research Institute (OPRI) Pte Ltd and was partially funded by Optimum Patient Care Global and AstraZeneca Ltd. No funding was received by the Observational & Pragmatic Research Institute Pte Ltd (OPRI) for its contribution.

Abstract Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. COPD exacerbations are associated with a worsening of lung function, increased disease burden, and mortality, and, therefore, preventing their occurrence is an important goal of COPD management. This review was conducted to identify the evidence base regarding risk factors and predictors of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with COPD. Methods A literature review was performed in Embase, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Searches were conducted from January 2015 to July 2019. Eligible publications were peer-reviewed journal articles, published in English, that reported risk factors or predictors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in adults age ≥ 40 years with a diagnosis of COPD. Results The literature review identified 5112 references, of which 113 publications (reporting results for 76 studies) met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Among the 76 studies included, 61 were observational and 15 were randomized controlled clinical trials. Exacerbation history was the strongest predictor of future exacerbations, with 34 studies reporting a significant association between history of exacerbations and risk of future moderate or severe exacerbations. Other significant risk factors identified in multiple studies included disease severity or bronchodilator reversibility (39 studies), comorbidities (34 studies), higher symptom burden (17 studies), and higher blood eosinophil count (16 studies). Conclusions This systematic literature review identified several demographic and clinical characteristics that predict the future risk of COPD exacerbations. Prior exacerbation history was confirmed as the most important predictor of future exacerbations. These prognostic factors may help clinicians identify patients at high risk of exacerbations, which are a major driver of the global burden of COPD, including morbidity and mortality.

Hyper-secretion and/or hyper-concentration of mucus is a defining feature of multiple obstructive lung diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mucus itself is composed of a mixture of water, ions, salt and proteins, of which the gel-forming mucins, MUC5AC and MUC5B, are the most abundant. Recent studies have linked the concentrations of these proteins in sputum to COPD phenotypes, including chronic bronchitis (CB) and acute exacerbations (AE). We sought to determine whether common genetic variants influence sputum mucin concentrations and whether these variants are also associated with COPD phenotypes, specifically CB and AE. We performed a GWAS to identify quantitative trait loci for sputum mucin protein concentration (pQTL) in the Sub-Populations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS, n = 708 for total mucin, n = 215 for MUC5AC, MUC5B). Subsequently, we tested for associations of mucin pQTL with CB and AE using regression modeling (n = 822-1300). Replication analysis was conducted using data from COPDGene (n = 5740) and by examining results from the UK Biobank. We identified one genome-wide significant pQTL for MUC5AC (rs75401036) and two for MUC5B (rs140324259, rs10001928). The strongest association for MUC5B, with rs140324259 on chromosome 11, explained 14% of variation in sputum MUC5B. Despite being associated with lower MUC5B, the C allele of rs140324259 conferred increased risk of CB (odds ratio (OR) = 1.42; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.80) as well as AE ascertained over three years of follow up (OR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.02-1.94). Associations between rs140324259 and CB or AE did not replicate in COPDGene. However, in the UK Biobank, rs140324259 was associated with phenotypes that define CB, namely chronic mucus production and cough, again with the C allele conferring increased risk. We conclude that sputum MUC5AC and MUC5B concentrations are associated with common genetic variants, and the top locus for MUC5B may influence COPD phenotypes, in particular CB.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to train and validate machine learning models for predicting rapid decline of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) in individuals with a smoking history at-risk-for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD 0), or with mild-to-moderate (GOLD 1–2) COPD. We trained multiple models to predict rapid FEV1 decline using demographic, clinical and radiologic biomarker data. Training and internal validation data were obtained from the COPDGene study and prediction models were validated against the SPIROMICS cohort.Methods: We used GOLD 0–2 participants (n = 3,821) from COPDGene (60.0 ± 8.8 years, 49.9% male) for variable selection and model training. Accelerated lung function decline was defined as a mean drop in FEV1% predicted of > 1.5%/year at 5-year follow-up. We built logistic regression models predicting accelerated decline based on 22 chest CT imaging biomarker, pulmonary function, symptom, and demographic features. Models were validated using n = 885 SPIROMICS subjects (63.6 ± 8.6 years, 47.8% male).Results: The most important variables for predicting FEV1 decline in GOLD 0 participants were bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR), post bronchodilator FEV1% predicted (FEV1.pp.post), and CT-derived expiratory lung volume; among GOLD 1 and 2 subjects, they were BDR, age, and PRMlower lobes fSAD. In the validation cohort, GOLD 0 and GOLD 1–2 full variable models had significant predictive performance with AUCs of 0.620 ± 0.081 (p = 0.041) and 0.640 ± 0.059 (p < 0.001). Subjects with higher model-derived risk scores had significantly greater odds of FEV1 decline than those with lower scores.Conclusion: Predicting FEV1 decline in at-risk patients remains challenging but a combination of clinical, physiologic and imaging variables provided the best performance across two COPD cohorts.

Abstract Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an age-related condition that has been associated with early telomere attrition; the clinical implications of telomere shortening in COPD are not well known. In this study we aimed to determine the relationship of the epigenetic regulation of telomeric length in peripheral blood with the risk of exacerbations and hospitalization in patients with COPD. Methods Blood DNA methylation profiles were obtained from 292 patients with COPD enrolled in the placebo arm of the Macrolide Azithromycin to Prevent Rapid Worsening of Symptoms Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (MACRO) Study and who were followed for 1-year. We calculated telomere length based on DNA methylation markers (DNAmTL) and related this biomarker to the risk of exacerbation and hospitalization and health status (St. George Respiratory Questionnaire [SGRQ]) score over time using a Cox proportional hazards model. We also used linear models to investigate the associations of DNAmTL with the rates of exacerbation and hospitalization (adjusted for chronological age, lung function, race, sex, smoking, body mass index and cell composition). Results Participants with short DNAmTL demonstrated increased risk of exacerbation (P = 0.02) and hospitalization (P = 0.03) compared to those with longer DNAmTL. DNAmTL age acceleration was associated with higher rates of exacerbation (P = 1.35 × 10 –04 ) and hospitalization (P = 5.21 × 10 –03 ) and poor health status (lower SGRQ scores) independent of chronological age (P = 0.03). Conclusion Telomeric age based on blood DNA methylation is associated with COPD exacerbation and hospitalization and thus a promising biomarker for poor outcomes in COPD.

Background The association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations and increased cardiovascular event risk has not been adequately studied in a heterogenous population with both low and high cardiovascular risk. Methods and Results This post hoc analysis of the IMPACT (Informing the Pathway of COPD Treatment) trial (N=10 355 symptomatic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease at risk of exacerbations) evaluated time‐dependent risk of cardiovascular adverse events of special interest (CVAESI) following exacerbations and impact of exacerbation history, cardiovascular risk factors, and study treatment on this association. Risk (time‐to‐first) of CVAESI or CVAESI resulting in hospitalization or death was assessed during and 1 to 30, 31 to 90, and 91 to 365 days after resolution of moderate or severe exacerbations. CVAESI risk was compared between the period before and during/after exacerbation. CVAESI risk increased significantly during a moderate (hazard ratio [HR], 2.63 [95% CI, 2.08–3.32]) or severe (HR, 21.84 [95% CI, 17.71–26.93]) exacerbation and remained elevated for 30 days following an exacerbation (moderate: HR, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.28–2.08]; severe: HR, 1.75 [95% CI, 0.99–3.11; nonsignificant]) and decreased over time, returning to baseline by 90 days. Risk of CVAESI resulting in hospitalization or death also increased during an exacerbation (moderate: HR, 2.46 [95% CI, 1.53–3.97]; severe: HR, 41.29 [95% CI, 30.43–56.03]) and decreased in a similar time‐dependent pattern. Results were consistent regardless of exacerbation history, cardiovascular risk at screening, or study treatment. Conclusions Overall risk of cardiovascular events was higher during and in the 30 days following chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations, even among those with low cardiovascular risk, highlighting the need for exacerbation prevention and vigilance for cardiovascular events following exacerbations. Registration URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02164513; Unique identifier: NCT02164513

Abstract Background The large airway epithelial barrier provides one of the first lines of defense against respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19. Substantial inter-individual variability in individual disease courses is hypothesized to be partially mediated by the differential regulation of the genes that interact with the SARS-CoV-2 virus or are involved in the subsequent host response. Here, we comprehensively investigated non-genetic and genetic factors influencing COVID-19-relevant bronchial epithelial gene expression. Methods We analyzed RNA-sequencing data from bronchial epithelial brushings obtained from uninfected individuals. We related ACE2 gene expression to host and environmental factors in the SPIROMICS cohort of smokers with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and replicated these associations in two asthma cohorts, SARP and MAST. To identify airway biology beyond ACE2 binding that may contribute to increased susceptibility, we used gene set enrichment analyses to determine if gene expression changes indicative of a suppressed airway immune response observed early in SARS-CoV-2 infection are also observed in association with host factors. To identify host genetic variants affecting COVID-19 susceptibility in SPIROMICS, we performed expression quantitative trait (eQTL) mapping and investigated the phenotypic associations of the eQTL variants. Results We found that ACE2 expression was higher in relation to active smoking, obesity, and hypertension that are known risk factors of COVID-19 severity, while an association with interferon-related inflammation was driven by the truncated, non-binding ACE2 isoform. We discovered that expression patterns of a suppressed airway immune response to early SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to other viruses, are similar to patterns associated with obesity, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease, which may thus contribute to a COVID-19-susceptible airway environment. eQTL mapping identified regulatory variants for genes implicated in COVID-19, some of which had pheWAS evidence for their potential role in respiratory infections. Conclusions These data provide evidence that clinically relevant variation in the expression of COVID-19-related genes is associated with host factors, environmental exposures, and likely host genetic variation.

Abstract Background Fibrinogen is the first qualified prognostic/predictive biomarker for exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The IMPACT trial investigated fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) triple therapy versus FF/VI and UMEC/VI in patients with symptomatic COPD at risk of exacerbations. This analysis used IMPACT trial data to examine the relationship between fibrinogen levels and exacerbation outcomes in patients with COPD. Methods 8094 patients with a fibrinogen assessment at Week 16 were included, baseline fibrinogen data were not measured. Post hoc analyses were performed by fibrinogen quartiles and by 3.5 g/L threshold. Endpoints included on-treatment exacerbations and adverse events of special interest (AESIs). Results Rates of moderate, moderate/severe, and severe exacerbations were higher in the highest versus lowest fibrinogen quartile (0.75, 0.92 and 0.15 vs 0.67, 0.79 and 0.10, respectively). The rate ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) for exacerbations in patients with fibrinogen levels ≥ 3.5 g/L versus those with fibrinogen levels

Abstract Background There is a lack of mechanism-driven, clinically relevant biomarkers in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mitochondrial dysfunction, a proposed disease mechanism in COPD, is associated with the release of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), but plasma cell-free mtDNA has not been previously examined prospectively for associations with clinical COPD measures. Methods P-mtDNA, defined as copy number of mitochondrially-encoded NADH dehydrogenase-1 (MT-ND1) gene, was measured by real-time quantitative PCR in 700 plasma samples from participants enrolled in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort. Associations between p-mtDNA and clinical disease parameters were examined, adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, and for informative loss to follow-up. Results P-mtDNA levels were higher in participants with mild or moderate COPD, compared to smokers without airflow obstruction, and to participants with severe COPD. Baseline increased p-mtDNA levels were associated with better CAT scores in female smokers without airflow obstruction and female participants with mild or moderate COPD on 1-year follow-up, but worse 6MWD in females with severe COPD. Higher p-mtDNA levels were associated with better 6MWD in male participants with severe COPD. These associations were no longer significant after adjusting for informative loss to follow-up. Conclusion In this study, p-mtDNA levels associated with baseline COPD status but not future changes in clinical COPD measures after accounting for informative loss to follow-up. To better characterize mitochondrial dysfunction as a potential COPD endotype, these results should be confirmed and validated in future studies. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01969344 (SPIROMICS)

Abstract Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is heterogeneous in development, progression, and phenotypes. Little is known about the lung microbiome, sampled by bronchoscopy, in milder COPD and its relationships to clinical features that reflect disease heterogeneity (lung function, symptom burden, and functional impairment). Using bronchoalveolar lavage fluid collected from 181 never-smokers and ever-smokers with or without COPD (GOLD 0-2) enrolled in the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS), we find that lung bacterial composition associates with several clinical features, in particular bronchodilator responsiveness, peak expiratory flow rate, and forced expiratory flow rate between 25 and 75% of FVC (FEF25–75). Measures of symptom burden (COPD Assessment Test) and functional impairment (six-minute walk distance) also associate with disparate lung microbiota composition. Drivers of these relationships include members of the Streptococcus, Prevotella, Veillonella, Staphylococcus, and Pseudomonas genera. Thus, lung microbiota differences may contribute to airway dysfunction and airway disease in milder COPD.

Abstract Rationale Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common comorbidity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and has been associated with increased risk of acute exacerbations, hospitalization, emergency room visits, costs, and quality-of-life impairment. However, it remains unclear whether GERD contributes to the progression of COPD as measured by lung function or computed tomography. Objective To determine the impact of GERD on longitudinal changes in lung function and radiographic lung disease in the COPDGene cohort. Methods We evaluated 5728 participants in the COPDGene cohort who completed Phase I (baseline) and Phase II (5-year follow-up) visits. GERD status was based on participant-reported physician diagnoses. We evaluated associations between GERD and annualized changes in lung function [forced expired volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC)] and quantitative computed tomography (QCT) metrics of airway disease and emphysema using multivariable regression models. These associations were further evaluated in the setting of GERD treatment with proton-pump inhibitors (PPI) and/or histamine-receptor 2 blockers (H2 blockers). Results GERD was reported by 2101 (36.7%) participants at either Phase I and/or Phase II. GERD was not associated with significant differences in slopes of FEV1 (difference of − 2.53 mL/year; 95% confidence interval (CI), − 5.43 to 0.37) or FVC (difference of − 3.05 mL/year; 95% CI, − 7.29 to 1.19), but the odds of rapid FEV1 decline of ≥40 mL/year was higher in those with GERD (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.20; 95%CI, 1.07 to 1.35). Participants with GERD had increased progression of QCT-measured air trapping (0.159%/year; 95% CI, 0.054 to 0.264), but not other QCT metrics such as airway wall area/thickness or emphysema. Among those with GERD, use of PPI and/or H2 blockers was associated with faster decline in FEV1 (difference of − 6.61 mL/year; 95% CI, − 11.9 to − 1.36) and FVC (difference of − 9.26 mL/year; 95% CI, − 17.2 to − 1.28). Conclusions GERD was associated with faster COPD disease progression as measured by rapid FEV1 decline and QCT-measured air trapping, but not by slopes of lung function. The magnitude of the differences was clinically small, but given the high prevalence of GERD, further investigation is warranted to understand the potential disease-modifying role of GERD in COPD pathogenesis and progression. Clinical trials registration NCT00608764 .

Abstract Background Assessments of lung function, exacerbations and health status are common measures of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) progression and treatment response in clinical trials. We hypothesised that a composite endpoint could more holistically assess clinically important deterioration (CID) in a COPD clinical trial setting. Methods A composite endpoint was tested in a post hoc analysis of 5652 patients with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2–4 COPD from the 4-year UPLIFT study. Patients received tiotropium 18 μg or placebo. Results The composite endpoint included time to first confirmed decrease in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) ≥100 mL, confirmed increase in St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score ≥ 4 units, or moderate/severe exacerbation. Most patients (> 80%) experienced CID, with similar incidence among GOLD subgroups. Most confirmed trough FEV1 (74.6–81.6%) and SGRQ (72.3–78.1%) deteriorations were sustained across the study and in all GOLD subgroups. Patients with CID more frequently experienced subsequent exacerbation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.67, 1.92) or death (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06, 1.39) by Month 6. CID was responsive to bronchodilator treatment. Conclusions Composite endpoints provide additional information on COPD progression and treatment effects in clinical trials. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00144339 . Graphical abstract

Abstract Given the heterogeneity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), personalized clinical management is key to optimizing patient outcomes. Important treatment goals include minimizing disease activity and preventing disease progression; however, quantification of these components remains a challenge. Growing evidence suggests that decline over time in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), traditionally the key marker of disease progression, may not be sufficient to fully determine deterioration across COPD populations. In addition, there is a lack of evidence showing that currently available multidimensional COPD indexes improve clinical decision-making, treatment, or patient outcomes. The composite clinically important deterioration (CID) endpoint was developed to assess disease worsening by detecting early deteriorations in lung function (measured by FEV1), health status (assessed by the St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire), and the presence of exacerbations. Post hoc and prospective analyses of clinical trial data have confirmed that the multidimensional composite CID endpoint better predicts poorer medium-term outcomes compared with any single CID component alone, and that it can demonstrate differences in treatment efficacy in short-term trials. Given the widely acknowledged need for an individualized holistic approach to COPD management, monitoring short-term CID has the potential to facilitate early identification of suboptimal treatment responses and patients at risk of increased disease progression. CID monitoring may lead to better-informed clinical management decisions and potentially improved prognosis.

Abstract Background This analysis of the IMPACT study assessed the cardiovascular (CV) safety of single-inhaler triple therapy with fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) versus FF/VI and UMEC/VI dual therapy. Methods IMPACT was a 52-week, randomized, double-blind, multicenter Phase III study comparing the efficacy and safety of FF/UMEC/VI 100/62.5/25 mcg with FF/VI 100/25 mcg or UMEC/VI 62.5/25 mcg in patients ≥40 years of age with symptomatic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ≥1 moderate/severe exacerbation in the previous year. The inclusion criteria for the study were intentionally designed to permit the enrollment of patients with significant concurrent CV disease/risk. CV safety assessments included proportion of patients with and exposure-adjusted rates of on-treatment CV adverse events of special interest (CVAESI) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE), as well as time-to-first (TTF) CVAESI, and TTF CVAESI resulting in hospitalization/prolonged hospitalization or death. Results Baseline CV risk factors were similar across treatment groups. Overall, 68% of patients (n = 7012) had ≥1 CV risk factor and 40% (n = 4127) had ≥2. At baseline, 29% of patients reported a current/past cardiac disorder and 58% reported a current/past vascular disorder. The proportion of patients with on-treatment CVAESI was 11% for both FF/UMEC/VI and UMEC/VI, and 10% for FF/VI. There was no statistical difference for FF/UMEC/VI versus FF/VI or UMEC/VI in TTF CVAESI (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85, 1.11; p = 0.711 and HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.78, 1.08; p = 0.317, respectively) nor TTF CVAESI leading to hospitalization/prolonged hospitalization or death (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.51; p = 0.167 and HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.72, 1.27; p = 0.760, respectively). On-treatment MACE occurred in ≤3% of patients across treatment groups, with similar prevalence and rates between treatments. Conclusions In a symptomatic COPD population with a history of exacerbations and a high rate of CV disease/risk, the proportion of patients with CVAESI and MACE was 10–11% and 1–3%, respectively, across treatment arms, and the risk of CVAESI was low and similar across treatment arms. There was no statistically significant increased CV risk associated with the use of FF/UMEC/VI versus FF/VI or UMEC/VI, and UMEC/VI versus FF/VI. Trial registration NCT02164513 (GSK study number CTT116855).

Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) have a class effect of increasing pneumonia risk in patients with COPD. However, pneumonia incidence varies widely across clinical trials of ICS use in COPD. This review clarifies methodological differences in defining and recording pneumonia events in these trials and discusses factors that could contribute to the varying pneumonia incidence. Literature searches and screening yielded 40 relevant references for inclusion. Methods used to capture pneumonia events in these studies included investigator-reported pneumonia adverse events, standardised list of signs or symptoms, radiographic confirmation of suspected cases and/or confirmation by an independent clinical end-point committee. In general, more stringent pneumonia diagnosis criteria led to lower reported pneumonia incidence rates. In addition, studies varied in design and population characteristics, including exacerbation history and lung function, factors that probably contribute to the varying pneumonia incidence. As such, cross-trial comparisons are problematic. A minimal set of standardised criteria for diagnosis and reporting of pneumonia should be used in COPD studies, as well as reporting of patients’ pneumonia history at baseline, to allow comparison of pneumonia rates between trials. Currently, within-trial comparison of ICS-containing versus non-ICS-containing treatments is the appropriate method to assess the influence of ICS on pneumonia incidence.

Abstract Background Guidelines recommend that treatment with a long-acting β2 agonist (LABA), a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), and inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), i.e. triple therapy, is reserved for a select group of symptomatic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who continue to exacerbate despite treatment with dual therapy (LABA/LAMA). A number of single-inhaler triple therapies are now available and important clinical questions remain over their role in the patient pathway. We compared the efficacy and safety of single-inhaler triple therapy to assess the magnitude of benefit and to identify patients with the best risk-benefit profile for treatment. We also evaluated and compared study designs and population characteristics to assess the strength of the evidence base. Methods We conducted a systematic search, from inception to December 2018, of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of single-inhaler triple therapy in patients with COPD. The primary outcome was the annual rate of moderate and severe exacerbations. Results We identified 523 records, of which 15 reports/abstracts from six RCTs were included. Triple therapy resulted in the reduction of the annual rate of moderate or severe exacerbations in the range of 15–52% compared with LAMA/LABA, 15–35% compared to LABA/ICS and 20% compared to LAMA. The patient-based number needed to treat for the moderate or severe exacerbation outcome ranged between approximately 25–50 (preventing one patient from having an event) and the event-based number needed to treat of around 3–11 (preventing one event). The absolute benefit appeared to be greater in patients with higher eosinophil counts or historical frequency of exacerbations and ex-smokers. In the largest study, there was a significantly higher incidence of pneumonia in the triple therapy arm. There were important differences in study designs and populations impacting the interpretation of the results and indicating there would be significant heterogeneity in cross-trial comparisons. Conclusion The decision to prescribe triple therapy should consider patient phenotype, magnitude of benefit and increased risk of adverse events. Future research on specific patient phenotype thresholds that can support treatment and funding decisions is now required from well-designed, robust, clinical trials. Trial registration PROSPERO #CRD42018102125.

In COPD, anaemia is associated with increased morbidity, but the relationship between haemoglobin over its entire observed range and morbidity is poorly understood. Such an understanding could guide future therapeutic targeting of haemoglobin in COPD management. Leveraging the COPDGene study, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of haemoglobin from COPD participants, examining symptoms, quality of life, functional performance, and acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD). Haemoglobin was analysed both as a continuous variable and categorised into anaemia, normal haemoglobin, and polycythaemia groups. Fractional polynomial modelling was used for continuous analyses; categorical models were multivariable linear or negative binomial regressions. Covariates included demographics, comorbidities, emphysema, diffusing capacity, and airflow obstruction. From 2539 participants, 366 (14%) were identified as anaemic and 125 (5%) as polycythaemic. Compared with normal haemoglobin, anaemia was significantly associated with increased symptoms (COPD Assessment Test score: p=0.006, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) Dyspnoea Score: p=0.001); worse quality of life (St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score: p

Introduction The current framework for investigating respiratory diseases is based on defining lung health as the absence of lung disease. In order to develop a comprehensive approach to prevent the development of lung disease, there is a need to evaluate the full spectrum of lung health spanning from ideal to impaired lung health. The American Lung Association (ALA) Lung Health Cohort is a new, population-based, cohort study focused primarily on characterising lung health in members of the millennial generation without diagnosed severe respiratory disease. Participants will be enrolled for the baseline study visit starting in 2021, and funding will be sought to support future study exams as part of a longitudinal cohort study. This study will be crucial for developing a novel paradigm of lung health throughout the adult life course.Methods and analysis This study will leverage the existing infrastructure of the ALA Airways Clinical Research Centers network to enrol 4000 participants between ages 25 and 35 years old at 39 sites across the USA between April 2021 and December 2024. Study procedures will include physical assessment, spirometry, chest CT scan, accelerometry and collection of nasal epithelial lining fluid, nasal epithelial cells, blood and urine. Participants will complete questionnaires about their sociodemographic characteristics, home address histories and exposures, work history and exposure, medical histories, lung health and health behaviours and activity.Ethics and dissemination The study was approved by the Johns Hopkins Medicine Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated to the scientific community through peer-reviewed journals and at professional conferences. The lay public will receive scientific findings directly through the ALA infrastructure including the official public website. Deidentified datasets will be deposited to BioLINCC, and deidentified biospecimens may be made available to qualified investigators along with a limited-use datasets.

Introduction Clinically important deterioration (CID) is a multicomponent measure for assessing disease worsening in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This analysis investigated the prognostic value of a CID event on future clinical outcomes and the effect of single-inhaler triple versus dual therapy on reducing CID risk in patients in the IMPACT trial. Methods IMPACT was a phase III, double-blind, 52-week, multicentre trial. Patients with symptomatic COPD and at least one moderate/severe exacerbation in the prior year were randomised 2:2:1 to fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) 100/62.5/25 µg, FF/VI 100/25 µg or UMEC/VI 62.5/25 µg. CID at the time-point of interest was defined as a moderate/severe exacerbation, ≥100 mL decrease in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s or deterioration in health status (increase of ≥4.0 units in St George's Respiratory Questionnaire total score or increase of ≥2.0 units in COPD Assessment Test score) from baseline. A treatment-independent post hoc prognostic analysis compared clinical outcomes up to week 52 in patients with/without a CID by week 28. A prospective analysis evaluated time to first CID with each treatment. Results Patients with a CID by week 28 had significantly increased exacerbation rates after week 28, smaller improvements in lung function and health status at week 52 (all p

BackgroundRadiologic evidence of air trapping (AT) on expiratory computed tomography (CT) scans is associated with early pulmonary dysfunction in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, standard techniques for quantitative assessment of AT are highly variable, resulting in limited efficacy for monitoring disease progression.ObjectiveTo investigate the effectiveness of a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for quantifying and monitoring AT, and to compare it with other quantitative AT measures obtained from threshold-based techniques.Materials and methodsPaired volumetric whole lung inspiratory and expiratory CT scans were obtained at four time points (0, 3, 12 and 24 months) on 36 subjects with mild CF lung disease. A densely connected CNN (DN) was trained using AT segmentation maps generated from a personalized threshold-based method (PTM). Quantitative AT (QAT) values, presented as the relative volume of AT over the lungs, from the DN approach were compared to QAT values from the PTM method. Radiographic assessment, spirometric measures, and clinical scores were correlated to the DN QAT values using a linear mixed effects model.ResultsQAT values from the DN were found to increase from 8.65% ± 1.38% to 21.38% ± 1.82%, respectively, over a two-year period. Comparison of CNN model results to intensity-based measures demonstrated a systematic drop in the Dice coefficient over time (decreased from 0.86 ± 0.03 to 0.45 ± 0.04). The trends observed in DN QAT values were consistent with clinical scores for AT, bronchiectasis, and mucus plugging. In addition, the DN approach was found to be less susceptible to variations in expiratory deflation levels than the threshold-based approach.ConclusionThe CNN model effectively delineated AT on expiratory CT scans, which provides an automated and objective approach for assessing and monitoring AT in CF patients.

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to explore the association between perceived social support and COPD outcomes and to determine whether the associations are mediated by depressive symptoms.MethodsSubjects with COPD who were enrolled as part of SPIROMICS were included in this analysis. Questionnaires relating to quality of life, symptom burden, and functional status were administered at annual clinic visits for over a 3 year period. In both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, we examined the association of social support as measured by the FACIT-F with COPD outcomes. Cross sectional analyses used multivariable linear or logistic regression, adjusting for covariates. For longitudinal analyses, generalized linear mixed models with random intercepts were used. Models were adjusted with and without depressive symptoms and mediation analyses performed.ResultsOf the 1831 subjects with COPD, 1779 completed the FACIT- F questionnaire. In adjusted cross-sectional analysis without depressive symptoms, higher perceived social support was associated with better quality of life, well-being, 6 minute walk distance, and less dyspnea. When also adjusting for depressive symptoms, all associations between social support and COPD outcomes were attenuated and no longer statistically significant. Mediation analysis suggested that depressive symptoms explained the majority (> = 85%) of the association between social support and measured COPD outcomes. Results of the longitudinal analysis were consistent with the cross-sectional analyses. There was no association between social support and odds of exacerbations.ConclusionHigher social support was associated with better COPD outcomes across several measures of morbidity including quality of life, respiratory symptoms, and functional status. In addition, these associations were largely attenuated when accounting for depressive symptoms suggesting that the beneficial association of social support with COPD outcomes may be largely mediated by the association between social support and depression.Trial registrationSPIROMICS was approved by Institutional Review Boards at each center and all participants provided written informed consent (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01969344).

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A–4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66–0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63–0.66) for GOLD 2019. The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system.

Introduction Quercetin is a plant flavonoid and has potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. In a preclinical model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), quercetin reduced markers of both oxidative stress and lung inflammation and also reduced rhinovirus-induced progression of lung disease. Although quercetin appears to be an attractive natural alternative to manage COPD, the safety of quercetin supplementation in this population is unknown.Methods We recruited COPD patients with mild-to-severe lung disease with FVE1 ranging between >35% and

Chronic rejection of lung allografts has two major subtypes, bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) and restrictive allograft syndrome (RAS), which present radiologically either as air trapping with small airways disease or with persistent pleuroparenchymal opacities. Parametric response mapping (PRM), a computed tomography (CT) methodology, has been demonstrated as an objective readout of BOS and RAS and bears prognostic importance, but has yet to be correlated to biological measures. Using a topological technique, we evaluate the distribution and arrangement of PRM-derived classifications of pulmonary abnormalities from lung transplant recipients undergoing redo-transplantation for end-stage BOS (N = 6) or RAS (N = 6). Topological metrics were determined from each PRM classification and compared to structural and biological markers determined from microCT and histopathology of lung core samples. Whole-lung measurements of PRM-defined functional small airways disease (fSAD), which serves as a readout of BOS, were significantly elevated in BOS versus RAS patients (p = 0.01). At the core-level, PRM-defined parenchymal disease, a potential readout of RAS, was found to correlate to neutrophil and collagen I levels (p < 0.05). We demonstrate the relationship of structural and biological markers to the CT-based distribution and arrangement of PRM-derived readouts of BOS and RAS.

Abstract Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with a two-to-five fold increase in the risk of coronary artery disease independent of shared risk factors. This association is hypothesized to be mediated by systemic inflammation but this link has not been established. Methods We included 300 participants enrolled in the SPIROMICS cohort, 75 each of lifetime non-smokers, smokers without airflow obstruction, mild-moderate COPD, and severe-very severe COPD. We quantified emphysema and airway disease on computed tomography, characterized visual emphysema subtypes (centrilobular and paraseptal) and airway disease, and used the Weston visual score to quantify coronary artery calcification (CAC). We used the Sobel test to determine whether markers of systemic inflammation mediated a link between spirometric and radiographic features of COPD and CAC. Results FEV1/FVC but not quantitative emphysema or airway wall thickening was associated with CAC (p = 0.036), after adjustment for demographics, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, statin use, and CT scanner type. To explain this discordance, we examined visual subtypes of emphysema and airway disease, and found that centrilobular emphysema but not paraseptal emphysema or bronchial thickening was independently associated with CAC (p = 0.019). MMP3, VCAM1, CXCL5 and CXCL9 mediated 8, 8, 7 and 16% of the association between FEV1/FVC and CAC, respectively. Similar biomarkers partially mediated the association between centrilobular emphysema and CAC. Conclusions The association between airflow obstruction and coronary calcification is driven primarily by the centrilobular subtype of emphysema, and is linked through bioactive molecules implicated in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: Identifier: NCT01969344.

Abstract Background The identification of smoking-related lung disease in current and former smokers with normal FEV1 is complex, leading to debate regarding using a ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 s to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) of less than 0.70 versus the predicted lower limit of normal (LLN) for diagnosis of airflow obstruction. We hypothesized that the discordant group of ever-smokers with FEV1/FVC between the LLN and 0.70 is heterogeneous, and aimed to characterize the burden of smoking-related lung disease in this group. Methods We compared spirometry, chest CT characteristics, and symptoms between 161 ever-smokers in the discordant group and 940 ever-smokers and 190 never-smokers with normal FEV1 and FEV1/FVC > 0.70 in the SPIROMICS cohort. We also estimated sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing objective radiographic evidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using different FEV1/FVC criteria thresholds. Results The discordant group had more CT defined emphysema and non-emphysematous gas trapping, lower post-bronchodilator FEV1 and FEF25–75, and higher respiratory medication use compared with the other two groups. Within the discordant group, 44% had radiographic CT evidence of either emphysema or non-emphysematous gas trapping; an FEV1/FVC threshold of 0.70 has greater sensitivity but lower specificity compared with LLN for identifying individuals with CT abnormality. Conclusions Ever-smokers with normal FEV1 and FEV1/FVC LLN are a heterogeneous group that includes significant numbers of individuals with and without radiographic evidence of smoking-related lung disease. These findings emphasize the limitations of diagnosing COPD based on spirometric criteria alone.

Abstract Background External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD. Methods We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores. Results Depending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile–3rd quartile = 0.655–0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUCADO – AUCBODE = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = −0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUCBODE updated – AUCBODE = 0.008 [95% CI = −0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency. Conclusions Our analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC network meta-analysis to measures of calibration. MSC network meta-analysis can be applied to prognostic scores in any medical field to identify the best scores, possibly paving the way for stratified medicine, public health, and research.

Abstract Background The literature is scarce regarding the prevalence and clinical impact of IgG subclass deficiency in COPD. We investigated the prevalence of IgG subclass deficiencies and their association with exacerbations and hospitalizations using subjects from two COPD cohorts. Methods We measured IgG subclass levels using immunonephelometry in serum samples from participants enrolled in two previous COPD trials: Macrolide Azithromycin for Prevention of Exacerbations of COPD (MACRO; n = 976) and Simvastatin for the Prevention of Exacerbations in Moderate-to-Severe COPD (STATCOPE; n = 653). All samples were collected from clinically stable participants upon entry into both studies. IgG subclass deficiency was diagnosed when IgG subclass levels were below their respective lower limit of normal: IgG1

Abstract Background Thrombocytosis has been associated with COPD prevalence and increased all-cause mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD); but whether it is associated with morbidity in stable COPD is unknown. This study aims to determine the association of thrombocytosis with COPD morbidity including reported AECOPD, respiratory symptoms and exercise capacity. Methods Participants with COPD were included from two multi-center observational studies (SPIROMICS and COPDGene). Cross-sectional associations of thrombocytosis (platelet count ≥350 × 109/L) with AECOPD during prior year (none vs. any), exertional dyspnea (modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) score ≥ 2), COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score ≥ 10, six-minute-walk distance (6MWD), and St. George Respiratory questionnaire (SGRQ) were modeled using multivariable logistic or linear regression. A pooled effect estimate for thrombocytosis was produced using meta-analysis of data from both studies. Results Thrombocytosis was present in 124/1820 (6.8%) SPIROMICS participants and 111/2185 (5.1%) COPDGene participants. In meta-analysis thrombocytosis was associated with any AECOPD (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.5; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.1–2.0), severe AECOPD (aOR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1–2.2), dyspnea (mMRC ≥ 2 aOR 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0–1.9), respiratory symptoms (CAT ≥ 10 aOR 1.6; 95% CI: 1.1–2.4), and higher SGRQ score (β 2.7; 95% CI: 0.5, 5). Thrombocytosis was also associated with classification into Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) group D (aOR 1.7 95% CI: 1.2–2.4). Conclusions Thrombocytosis was associated with higher likelihood of prior exacerbation and worse symptoms. Platelet count, a commonly measured clinical assay, may be a biomarker for moderate-severe COPD symptoms, guide disease classification and intensity of treatment. Future longitudinal studies investigating the role of platelets in COPD progression may be warranted. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01969344 (SPIROMICS) and NCT00608764 (COPDGene).

Abstract Background Beta-blockers are commonly prescribed for patients with cardiovascular disease. Providers have been wary of treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with beta-blockers due to concern for bronchospasm, but retrospective studies have shown that cardio-selective beta-blockers are safe in COPD and possibly beneficial. However, these benefits may reflect symptom improvements due to the cardiac effects of the medication. The purpose of this study is to evaluate associations between beta-blocker use and both exacerbation rates and longitudinal measures of lung function in two well-characterized COPD cohorts. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1219 participants with over 180 days of follow up from the STATCOPE trial, which excluded most cardiac comorbidities, and from the placebo arm of the MACRO trial. Primary endpoints were exacerbation rates per person-year and change in spirometry over time in association with beta blocker use. Results Overall 13.9% (170/1219) of participants reported taking beta-blockers at enrollment. We found no statistically significant differences in exacerbation rates with respect to beta-blocker use regardless of the prevalence of cardiac comorbidities. In the MACRO cohort, patients taking beta-blockers had an exacerbation rate of 1.72/person-year versus a rate of 1.71/person-year in patients not taking beta-blockers. In the STATCOPE cohort, patients taking beta-blockers had an exacerbation rate of 1.14/person-year. Patients without beta-blockers had an exacerbation rate of 1.34/person-year. We found no detrimental effect of beta blockers with respect to change in lung function over time. Conclusion We found no evidence that beta-blocker use was unsafe or associated with worse pulmonary outcomes in study participants with moderate to severe COPD.

Abstract Background Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection is associated with reduced lung function and systemic inflammation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Azithromycin (AZ) is active against HP and reduces the risk of COPD exacerbation. We determined whether HP infection status modifies the effects of AZ in COPD patients. Methods Plasma samples from 1018 subjects with COPD who participated in the Macrolide Azithromycin (MACRO) in COPD Study were used to determine the HP infection status at baseline and 12 months of follow-up using a serologic assay. Based on HP infection status and randomization to either AZ or placebo (PL), the subjects were divided into 4 groups: HP+/AZ, HP-/AZ, HP+/PL, and HP-/PL. Time to first exacerbation was compared across the 4 groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and a Cox proportional hazards model. The rates of exacerbation were compared using both the Kruskal-Wallis test and negative binomial analysis. Blood biomarkers at enrolment and at follow-up visits 3, 12, and 13 (1 month after treatment was stopped) months were measured. Results One hundred eighty one (17.8%) patients were seropositive to HP. Non-Caucasian participants were nearly three times more likely to be HP seropositive than Caucasian participants (37.4% vs 13.6%; p