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Development and implementation of effective protected area management to reduce deforestation depend in part on identifying factors contributing to forest loss and areas at risk of conversion, but standard land-use-change modeling may not fully capture contextual factors that are not easily quantified. To better understand deforestation and agricultural expansion in Amazonian protected areas, we combined quantitative land-use-change modeling with qualitative discourse analysis in a case study of Brazil's Jamanxim National Forest. We modeled land-use change from 2008 to 2018 and projected deforestation through 2028. We used variables identified in a review of studies that modeled land-use change in the Amazon (e.g., variables related to agricultural suitability and economic accessibility) and from a critical discourse analysis that examined documents produced by different actors (e.g., government agencies and conservation nonprofit organizations) at various spatial scales. As measured by analysis of variance, McFadden's adjusted pseudo REl desarrollo y la implementación de la gestión efectiva de las áreas protegidas para reducir la deforestación dependen parcialmente de la identificación de los factores que contribuyen a la pérdida del bosque y de las áreas en riesgo de ser convertidas, pero el modelado estándar del cambio de uso de suelo puede no capturar completamente los factores contextuales que no se cuantifican fácilmente. Combinamos el modelado cuantitativo del cambio de uso de suelo con el análisis cualitativo del discurso en un estudio de caso del Bosque Nacional Jamanxim de Brasil para entender de mejor manera la deforestación y la expansión agrícola en las áreas protegidas del Amazonas. Modelamos el cambio de uso de suelo entre 2008 y 2018 y lo proyectamos hasta 2028. Usamos las variables identificadas en una revisión de estudios que modelaron el cambio de uso de suelo en el Amazonas (p. ej.: variables relacionadas con la idoneidad agrícola y la accesibilidad económica) y en el análisis crítico del discurso que examinó documentos producidos por diferentes actores (p. ej.: agencias gubernamentales y organizaciones sin fines de lucro para la conservación) a varias escalas espaciales. Conforme a las medidas del análisis de varianza, la pseudo-R2 ajustada de McFadden y el desacuerdo en la cantidad y la asignación, descubrimos que la inclusión dentro del modelo de las variables identificadas como importantes para las dinámicas de deforestación mediante el análisis cualitativo del discurso (p. ej.: la proporción de terrenos públicos sin asignar, la distancia hacia los desarrollos propuestos de infraestructura y la densidad de incendios recientes) junto con variables más tradicionales (p. ej.: elevación, distancia a las carreteras y estado de protección) mejoró la habilidad predictiva de dichos modelos. Los modelos que incluyeron la mezcla de variables explicaron hasta 19.3% más de la variación observada en la probabilidad de deforestación que un modelo que solamente incluyó las variables tradicionales y 4.1% más variación que un modelo con las variables del análisis del discurso. Nuestra estrategia de integrar los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos dentro del modelado del cambio de uso de suelo proporciona un marco para futuros trabajos interdisciplinarios sobre el cambio de uso de suelo.【摘要】制定和实施有效的保护区管理以减少森林砍伐, 部分取决于能否确定导致森林丧失的因素和面临土地转换风险的地区, 但标准的土地利用变化建模可能无法充分反映难以量化的背景因素。为了更好地了解亚马逊保护区的森林砍伐和农业扩张情况, 我们将定量的土地利用变化模型与定性的话语分析相结合, 对巴西Jamanxim国家森林进行了案例研究。我们模拟了2008-2018年的土地利用变化情况, 并预测了到2028年的森林砍伐情况。本研究使用的变量来自一项对亚马逊地区土地利用变化建模研究的综述(如与农业适宜性和经济可及性相关的变量), 以及一项检验不同行为者(如政府机构和非营利性保护组织)在不同空间尺度上制定的文件的话语分析。通过方差分析、McFadden调整后的伪R

Adaptation to climate change has become a major policy and project focus for donors and governments globally. In this article, we provide insight into how adaptation projects mobilize distinct imaginaries and knowledge claims that create territories for intervention (the objects) as well as targeted populations (the subjects) to sustain them. Drawing on two emblematic climate change adaptation projects in Ecuador, we show how these objects and subjects are created through a knowledge production process that (a) creates a discursive climate change rationale; (b) sidesteps uncertainty related to climate change impacts; (c) fosters a circular citational practice that (self-)reinforces the project's expert knowledge; and (d) makes complex social variables commensurable based on the project's rationality, interests, and quantifiable indicators. The emerging hydrosocial territories ‘in need of intervention’ require subjects that inhabit, produce and reproduce these territories, in accordance with specific climate change discourses and practices. To manufacture and align these subjects, projects employ participatory practices that are informed by recognition politics aimed at disciplining participants toward particular identities and ways of thinking and acting. We analyze these distinct strategies as multiple governmentalities enacted through participatory adaptation projects seeking to produce specific climate change resilient hydrosocial territories and corresponding subjects.

As climate change escalates, donors, international organizations, and state actors are implementing adaptation projectsEmbedded within these adaptation projects are imaginaries of rural resilience. These imaginaries, however, are contested by individuals and collectives targeted by such initiatives. In this article, we draw on Foucault’s notion of counter conducts to understand how beneficiaries in Ecuador resist, leverage, and/or rework adaptation interventions and towards what end. We identified five counter conducts: (1) negotiating for control, (2) setting the terms for participation, (3) opting out, (4) subverting the discursive frame, and (5) leveraging longevity. We argue that these counter conducts are generative, enacting multi-scalar counter-hegemonic politics of agrarian transformation.

Studying land use change in protected areas (PAs) located in tropical forests is a major conservation priority due to high conservation value (e.g., species richness and carbon storage) here, coupled with generally high deforestation rates. Land use change researchers use a variety of land cover products to track deforestation trends, including maps they produce themselves and readily available products, such as the Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset. However, all land cover maps should be critically assessed for limitations and biases to accurately communicate and interpret results. In this study, we assess deforestation in PA complexes located in agricultural frontiers in the Amazon Basin. We studied three specific sites: Amboró and Carrasco National Parks in Bolivia, Jamanxim National Forest in Brazil, and Tambopata National Reserve and Bahuaja-Sonene National Park in Peru. Within and in 20km buffer areas around each complex, we generated land cover maps using composites of Landsat imagery and supervised classification, and compared deforestation trends to data from the GFC dataset. We then performed a dissimilarity analysis to explore the discrepancies between the two remote sensing products. Both the GFC and our supervised classification showed that deforestation rates were higher in the 20km buffer than inside the PAs and that Jamanxim National Forest had the highest deforestation rate of the PAs we studied. However, GFC maps showed consistently higher rates of deforestation than our maps. Through a dissimilarity analysis, we found that many of the inconsistencies between these datasets arise from different treatment of mixed pixels or different parameters in map creation (for example, GFC does not detect reforestation after 2012). We found that our maps underestimated deforestation while GFC overestimated deforestation, and that true deforestation rates likely fall between our two estimates. We encourage users to consider limitations and biases when using or interpreting our maps, which we make publicly available, and GFC’s maps.

To increase agricultural exports across the Global South, countries are seeking to transform agrarian landscapes and the nature of campesino or smallholder agriculture. These agricultural reforms, however, do not exist in isolation. They work in conjunction with water policy reform to reshape agricultural systems and the people who manage these landscapes. While there has been significant research on agrarian change under neoliberal reform, few scholars have conducted empirical studies that examine how agricultural policy leverages water policy reform to generate changes across agricultural landscapes. Drawing on the case study of the Piura River basin in Northern Peru, this paper first explores how the IWRM inspired 2009 Water Resources Law furthers the state's agricultural development priorities by shifting water toward agro-export production. Secondly, this study demonstrates how climate change is being discursively mobilized as an emerging driver of water scarcity to legitimize these water reallocations. Thirdly, this case highlights how these water reallocations work in concert with the reinstatement of targeted agricultural support programs that seek to transform smallholder farmers into “agro-export entrepreneurs” but with meaningful exclusions. This study contributes to the limited scholarship on the 2009 Water Resources Law in Peru and also raises broader questions regarding how IWRM water management, climate change adaptation discourse, and agricultural development policy collectively promote the globalization of smallholder agriculture.

Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Sciences program [NNX14AD29G]; MacArthur Foundation under the Living Andean Rivers initiative [16-1607-151053-CSD]

This paper critically reviews the outcomes of internationally-funded interventions aimed at climate change adaptation and vulnerability reduction. It highlights how some interventions inadvertently reinforce, redistribute or create new sources of vulnerability. Four mechanisms drive these maladaptive outcomes: (i) shallow understanding of the vulnerability context; (ii) inequitable stakeholder participation in both design and implementation; (iii) a retrofitting of adaptation into existing development agendas; and (iv) a lack of critical engagement with how ‘adaptation success’ is defined. Emerging literature shows potential avenues for overcoming the current failure of adaptation interventions to reduce vulnerability: first, shifting the terms of engagement between adaptation practitioners and the local populations participating in adaptation interventions; and second, expanding the understanding of ‘local’ vulnerability to encompass global contexts and drivers of vulnerability. An important lesson from past adaptation interventions is that within current adaptation cum development paradigms, inequitable terms of engagement with ‘vulnerable’ populations are reproduced and the multi-scalar processes driving vulnerability remain largely ignored. In particular, instead of designing projects to change the practices of marginalised populations, learning processes within organisations and with marginalised populations must be placed at the centre of adaptation objectives. We pose the question of whether scholarship and practice need to take a post-adaptation turn akin to post-development, by seeking a pluralism of ideas about adaptation while critically interrogating how these ideas form part of the politics of adaptation and potentially the processes (re)producing vulnerability. We caution that unless the politics of framing and of scale are explicitly tackled, transformational interventions risk having even more adverse effects on marginalised populations than current adaptation.

Recreation is a fundamental component of human culture and the economy. In this paper, we elucidate ways in which recreation should be reconsidered in discussions of climate change. Ecosystems that support outdoor recreation can be significantly altered, extreme climatic conditions can affect plant and animal health, and extreme weather events can limit human outdoor activity. Projections indicate global temperatures will rise and precipitation will shift from historical conditions to less predictable regimes. These projected changes affect recreation and the economies recreation supports. To encourage the inclusion of recreation as a topic in future assessment synthesis reports, a snapshot of climate change impacts on regional recreation in the US is developed, using the National Park Service and Forest Service as case studies. After examining peer-reviewed and agency literature, we suggest that the impact of projected climate change on US recreation needs further scrutiny. Federal land managem...

Combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data is crucial to understanding the complex dynamics and often interdisciplinary nature of conservation. Many conservation scientists use mixed methods, but there are a variety of mixed methods approaches, a lack of shared vocabulary, and few methodological frameworks. We reviewed articles from 2 conservation-related fields that often incorporate qualitative and quantitative methods: land-change science (n = 16) and environmental management (n = 16). We examined how authors of these studies approached mixed methods research by coding key methodological characteristics, including relationships between method objectives, extent of integration, iterative interactions between methods, and justification for use of mixed methods. Using these characteristics, we created a typology with the goal of improving understanding of how researchers studying land-change science and environmental management approach interdisciplinary mixed methods research. We identified 5 types of mixed methods approaches, which we termed simple nested, informed nested, simple parallel, unidirectional synthesis, and bidirectional synthesis. Methods and data sources were often used to address different research questions within a project, and only around half of the reviewed papers methodologically integrated different forms of data. Most authors used one method to inform the other, rather than both informing one another. Very few articles used methodological iteration. Each methodological type has certain epistemological implications, such as the disciplinary reach of the research and the capacity for knowledge creation through the exchange of information between distinct methodologies. To exemplify a research design that can lead to multidimensional knowledge production, we provide a methodological framework that bidirectionally integrates and iterates qualitative and quantitative methods.Estrategias para la Investigación Interdisciplinaria con Métodos Mixtos en las Ciencias del Cambio de Suelo y el Manejo Ambiental Resumen La combinación entre los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos y los datos es crucial para el entendimiento de las dinámicas complejas y con frecuencia, de la naturaleza interdisciplinaria de la conservación. Muchos científicos de la conservación usan métodos mixtos, aunque existe una variedad de estrategias de métodos mixtos, una falta de vocabulario común y pocos marcos de trabajo metodológicos. Revisamos los artículos publicados en dos campos relacionados con la conservación, los cuales con frecuencia incorporan métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos: las ciencias del cambio de suelo (n = 16) y el manejo ambiental (n = 16). Examinamos cómo los autores de estos estudios abordaron la investigación de métodos mixtos al codificar las características metodológicas importantes, incluyendo las relaciones entre los objetivos de los métodos, la extensión de la integración, las interacciones iterativas entre los métodos y la justificación para el uso de los métodos mixtos. Con estas características creamos una tipología con el objetivo de mejorar el entendimiento de cómo los investigadores que estudian las ciencias del cambio de suelo y el manejo ambiental abordan la investigación interdisciplinaria de métodos mixtos. Identificamos cinco tipos de estrategias de métodos mixtos, que denominamos anidadas, anidadas informadas, paralelas simples, de síntesis unidireccional y de síntesis bidireccional. Con frecuencia se utilizaron métodos y fuentes de datos para responder a diferentes preguntas de investigación dentro de un proyecto y sólo alrededor de la mitad de los artículos revisados integraron de manera metodológica diferentes presentaciones de los datos. La mayoría de los autores usaron un método para orientar al otro método, en lugar de que ambos métodos se orientaran mutuamente. Fueron muy pocos los artículos que usaron la iteración metodológica. Cada estilo metodológico tiene ciertas implicaciones epistemológicas, como el alcance disciplinario de la investigación y la capacidad de creación de conocimiento por medio del intercambio de información entre las distintas metodologías. Proporcionamos un marco de trabajo metodológico que integre de manera bidireccional y reitere los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos para ejemplificar un diseño de investigación que pueda derivar en la producción multidimensional del conocimiento.

The electric utility industry is an important player in the climate change arena, both as a significant emitter of global emissions and as an industry vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A climate risk management approach uses risk assessments and decision analyses to identify potential adaptation options. We review the existing literature on climate risk management in the electric utility industry, with a focus on four areas of interest: (1) climate change impacts; (2) measurements of risk; (3) stakeholder engagement and cross-sectoral collaboration; and (4) adaptation actions. Overall, we find significant emphasis on the identification of potential climate change impacts and opportunities for adaptation, but less attention paid to assessments of risk, stakeholder engagement, and cross-sectoral collaboration in climate risk management. We find considerable diversity in the types of adaptation actions, methods for measuring risk, and mechanisms for engaging stakeholders. We offer some suggestions to move beyond more fragmented approaches to climate risk management, including the adoption of more holistic approaches, heightened stakeholder and cross-sectoral engagement, and greater collaboration between researchers and electric utilities. Keywords: Electric utility industry, Climate risk, Adaptation, Stakeholders

In the lead‐up to the 2015 Conference of Parties meeting in Paris, 186 countries, representing over 95% of global emissions, submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDCs outline national goals for greenhouse gas emission reductions and identify financial needs for unfolding mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we review various analyses of the NDCs that cover the aggregate impact and strength of emissions reduction commitments and discuss recent literature on the adequacy and sectoral focus of the NDCs. We then argue that the NDCs are more than just goal setting reports; they are important discursive documents that are contested, negotiated, and ongoing. To supplement the existing literature, we examine the discursive narratives embedded in the NDCs from the 19 founding nations of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the top 10 greenhouse gas emitters. Our literature review of quantitative and sectoral aspects of the NDCs highlights the inadequacy of the NDC commitments in the context of limiting warming to 2°C, discusses the uncertainties in the promised mitigation strategies, and identifies the reliance of many countries on policies such as those on forests or renewable energy. Our own analysis of the discourses in the NDCs adds critical depth by highlighting the stark contrasts in NDC discourses between North and South, as well as between historical emitters and emerging economies. These contrasts reflect deeper debates regarding justice and equity between nations within the UNFCCC negotiations. This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Decoupling Emissions from Development

The political economy of dam development in South America is changing as a result of a resurgence in water infrastructure investments. The arrival of Chinese-funded projects in the region has altered a context traditionally dominated by multilateral development banks. Tensions are escalating around new dam projects and the environmental impact assessment process is increasingly the site of politicization around water in the region. In this perspective, we examine the most recent surge in dam development in South America, the resulting environmental and social impacts, and the mobilization of civil society and environmental groups that have developed in response to these projects. In the absence of regionally shared standards for environmental assessment and regional mechanisms to mitigate the emerging conflicts—primarily occurring between companies, states, and civil society—we argue there is a risk of a race to the bottom to finance infrastructure projects with laxer environmental and social standards. Fil: Gerlak, Andrea K.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Saguier, Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Política y Gobierno; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Mills Novoa, Megan. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Fearnside, Philip M.. Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia; Brasil Fil: Albrecht, Tamee R.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos

Glaciers, snowpack, rivers, lakes, and wetlands in mountain regions provide freshwater for much of the world's population. These systems, however, are acutely sensitive to climate change. In Andean water towers, which supply freshwater to more than 100 million people, climate change adaptation planning is critical. Adaptation plans, however, are more than just documents; they inform and are informed by sociopolitical processes with major implications for hydrosocial relations in mountain water towers. Noting the inadequate scholarly attention to climate change in relation to the hydrosocial cycle, we draw on the hydrosocial literature to examine and compare climate change adaptation plans from mountain water tower regions of Piura, Peru, and the Santiago metropolitan region in Chile. Through a hydrosocial lens, we find that these plans reinforce hydrosocial relations such as upstream–downstream disparities that tend to exclude those who access water informally, have differing ontologies of water, or have ...

International Water Security Network - Lloyd's Register Foundation (LRF); U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) [GEO-1138881, SGP-CRA005]; NSF [CRN3056, GEO-1128040, DEB-1010495]

Fondecyt [1120713]; Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) [CRN3056]; U.S. National Science Foundation [GEO-1128040]

Large landslides (>0.1 km 2 ) are important agents of geomorphic change. While most common in rugged mountain ranges, large landslides can also be widespread in relatively low-relief (several 100 m) terrain, where their distribution has been relatively little studied. A fuller understanding of the role of large landslides in landscape evolution requires addressing this gap, since the distribution of large landslides may affect broad regions through interactions with channel processes, and since the dominant controls on landslide distribution might be expected to vary with tectonic setting. We documented >400 landslides between 0.1 and ∼40 km 2 across ∼140,000 km 2 of eastern Oregon, in the semiarid, southern interior Columbia River basin. The mapped landslides cluster in a NW-SE–trending band that is 50–100 km wide. Landslides predominantly occur where even modest local relief (∼100 m) exists near key contacts between weak sedimentary or volcaniclastic rock and coherent cap rock. Fault density exerts no control on landslide distribution, while ∼10% of mapped landslides cluster within 3–10 km of mapped fold axes. Landslide occurrence is curtailed to the NE by thick packages of coherent basalt and to the SW by limited local relief. Our results suggest that future mass movements will localize in areas stratigraphically preconditioned for landsliding by a geologic history of fluviolacustrine and volcaniclastic sedimentation and episodic capping by coherent lava flows. In such areas, episodic landsliding may persist for hundreds of thousands of years or more, producing valley wall slopes of ∼7°–13° and impacting local channels with an evolving array of mass movement styles.