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The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is a popular statistical approach for handling correlated data, and is used extensively in applications areas where big data is common, including biomedical data settings. The focus of this paper is scalable statistical inference for the GLMM, where we define statistical inference as: (i) estimation of population parameters, and (ii) evaluation of scientific hypotheses in the presence of uncertainty. Artificial intelligence (AI) learning algorithms excel at scalable statistical estimation, but rarely include uncertainty quantification. In contrast, Bayesian inference provides full statistical inference, since uncertainty quantification results automatically from the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference algorithms, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become computationally intractable in big data settings. In this paper, we introduce a statistical inference algorithm at the intersection of AI and Bayesian inference, that leverages the scalability of modern AI algorithms with guaranteed uncertainty quantification that accompanies Bayesian inference. Our algorithm is an extension of stochastic gradient MCMC with novel contributions that address the treatment of correlated data (i.e., intractable marginal likelihood) and proper posterior variance estimation. Through theoretical and empirical results we establish our algorithm's statistical inference properties, and apply the method in a large electronic health records database., Comment: 42 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables

Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) are crucial in modern air defense systems. A critical aspect of their effectiveness is the Engagement Zone (EZ), the spatial region within which a SAM can effectively engage and neutralize a target. Notably, the EZ is intrinsically related to the missile's maximum range; it defines the furthest distance at which a missile can intercept a target. The accurate computation of this EZ is essential but challenging due to the dynamic and complex factors involved, which often lead to high computational costs and extended processing times when using conventional simulation methods. In light of these challenges, our study investigates the potential of machine learning techniques, proposing an approach that integrates machine learning with a custom-designed simulation tool to train supervised algorithms. We leverage a comprehensive dataset of pre-computed SAM EZ simulations, enabling our model to accurately predict the SAM EZ for new input parameters. It accelerates SAM EZ simulations, enhances air defense strategic planning, and provides real-time insights, improving SAM system performance. The study also includes a comparative analysis of machine learning algorithms, illuminating their capabilities and performance metrics and suggesting areas for future research, highlighting the transformative potential of machine learning in SAM EZ simulations.

This work compares supervised machine learning methods using reliable data from constructive simulations to estimate the most effective moment for launching missiles during air combat. We employed resampling techniques to improve the predictive model, analyzing accuracy, precision, recall, and f1-score. Indeed, we could identify the remarkable performance of the models based on decision trees and the significant sensitivity of other algorithms to resampling techniques. The models with the best f1-score brought values of 0.379 and 0.465 without and with the resampling technique, respectively, which is an increase of 22.69%. Thus, if desirable, resampling techniques can improve the model's recall and f1-score with a slight decline in accuracy and precision. Therefore, through data obtained through constructive simulations, it is possible to develop decision support tools based on machine learning models, which may improve the flight quality in BVR air combat, increasing the effectiveness of offensive missions to hit a particular target.

The Aerospace Simulation Environment (Ambiente de Simula\c{c}\~ao Aeroespacial -- ASA in Portuguese) is a custom-made object-oriented simulation framework developed mainly in C++ that enables the modeling and simulation of military operational scenarios to support the development of tactics and procedures in the aerospace context for the Brazilian Air Force. This work describes the ASA framework, bringing its distributed architecture for managing multiple simulation machines, a data analysis platform for post-processing simulation data, the capability of loading models at simulation runtime, and a batch mode execution platform to perform multiple independent executions simultaneously. In addition, we present a list of recent works using the ASA framework as a simulation tool in the air combat context.

One of the leading causes of blindness is glaucoma, which is challenging to detect since it remains asymptomatic until the symptoms are severe. Thus, diagnosis is usually possible until the markers are easy to identify, i.e., the damage has already occurred. Early identification of glaucoma is generally made based on functional, structural, and clinical assessments. However, due to the nature of the disease, researchers still debate which markers qualify as a consistent glaucoma metric. Deep learning methods have partially solved this dilemma by bypassing the marker identification stage and analyzing high-level information directly to classify the data. Although favorable, these methods make expert analysis difficult as they provide no insight into the model discrimination process. In this paper, we overcome this using deep generative networks, a deep learning model that learns complicated, high-dimensional probability distributions. We train a Deep Feature consistent Variational Autoencoder (DFC-VAE) to reconstruct optic disc images. We show that a small-sized latent space obtained from the DFC-VAE can learn the high-dimensional glaucoma data distribution and provide discriminatory evidence between normal and glaucoma eyes. Latent representations of size as low as 128 from our model got a 0.885 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when trained with Support Vector Classifier., Comment: Corresponding author: Felipe A. Medeiros

Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness in the world, affecting over 70 million people. The cumbersome Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP) test is most frequently used to detect visual loss due to glaucoma. Due to the SAP test's innate difficulty and its high test-retest variability, we propose the RetiNerveNet, a deep convolutional recursive neural network for obtaining estimates of the SAP visual field. RetiNerveNet uses information from the more objective Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography (SDOCT). RetiNerveNet attempts to trace-back the arcuate convergence of the retinal nerve fibers, starting from the Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer (RNFL) thickness around the optic disc, to estimate individual age-corrected 24-2 SAP values. Recursive passes through the proposed network sequentially yield estimates of the visual locations progressively farther from the optic disc. While all the methods used for our experiments exhibit lower performance for the advanced disease group, the proposed network is observed to be more accurate than all the baselines for estimating the individual visual field values. We further augment RetiNerveNet to additionally predict the SAP Mean Deviation values and also create an ensemble of RetiNerveNets that further improves the performance, by increasingly weighting-up underrepresented parts of the training data.

We introduce a Bayesian non-parametric spatial factor analysis model with spatial dependency induced through a prior on factor loadings. For each column of the loadings matrix, spatial dependency is encoded using a probit stick-breaking process (PSBP) and a multiplicative gamma process shrinkage prior is used across columns to adaptively determine the number of latent factors. By encoding spatial information into the loadings matrix, meaningful factors are learned that respect the observed neighborhood dependencies, making them useful for assessing rates over space. Furthermore, the spatial PSBP prior can be used for clustering temporal trends, allowing users to identify regions within the spatial domain with similar temporal trajectories, an important task in many applied settings. In the manuscript, we illustrate the model's performance in simulated data, but also in two real-world examples: longitudinal monitoring of glaucoma and malaria surveillance across the Peruvian Amazon. The R package spBFA, available on CRAN, implements the method., Comment: This is a preprint of an article submitted for publication in the Journal of the American Statistical Association. The article contains 35 pages, 5 figures and 2 tables

As big spatial data becomes increasingly prevalent, classical spatiotemporal (ST) methods often do not scale well. While methods have been developed to account for high-dimensional spatial objects, the setting where there are exceedingly large samples of spatial observations has had less attention. The variational autoencoder (VAE), an unsupervised generative model based on deep learning and approximate Bayesian inference, fills this void using a latent variable specification that is inferred jointly across the large number of samples. In this manuscript, we compare the performance of the VAE with a more classical ST method when analyzing longitudinal visual fields from a large cohort of patients in a prospective glaucoma study. Through simulation and a case study, we demonstrate that the VAE is a scalable method for analyzing ST data, when the goal is to obtain accurate predictions. R code to implement the VAE can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/berchuck/vaeST., Comment: This is a preprint of an article submitted for publication in the Annals of Applied Statistics. The article contains 26 pages and 7 figures

Glaucoma is the leading cause of preventable, irreversible blindness world-wide. The disease can remain asymptomatic until severe, and an estimated 50%-90% of people with glaucoma remain undiagnosed. Glaucoma screening is recommended for early detection and treatment. A cost-effective tool to detect glaucoma could expand screening access to a much larger patient population, but such a tool is currently unavailable. We trained a deep learning algorithm using a retrospective dataset of 86,618 images, assessed for glaucomatous optic nerve head features and referable glaucomatous optic neuropathy (GON). The algorithm was validated using 3 datasets. For referable GON, the algorithm had an AUC of 0.945 (95% CI, 0.929-0.960) in dataset A (1205 images, 1 image/patient; 18.1% referable), images adjudicated by panels of Glaucoma Specialists (GSs); 0.855 (95% CI, 0.841-0.870) in dataset B (9642 images, 1 image/patient; 9.2% referable), images from Atlanta Veterans Affairs Eye Clinic diabetic teleretinal screening program; and 0.881 (95% CI, 0.838-0.918) in dataset C (346 images, 1 image/patient; 81.7% referable), images from Dr. Shroff's Charity Eye Hospital's glaucoma clinic. The algorithm showed significantly higher sensitivity than 7 of 10 graders not involved in determining the reference standard, including 2 of 3 GSs, and showed higher specificity than 3 graders, while remaining comparable to others. For both GSs and the algorithm, the most crucial features related to referable GON were: presence of vertical cup-to-disc ratio of 0.7 or more, neuroretinal rim notching, retinal nerve fiber layer defect, and bared circumlinear vessels. An algorithm trained on fundus images alone can detect referable GON with higher sensitivity than and comparable specificity to eye care providers. The algorithm maintained good performance on an independent dataset with diagnoses based on a full glaucoma workup.

Previous approaches using deep learning algorithms to classify glaucomatous damage on fundus photographs have been limited by the requirement for human labeling of a reference training set. We propose a new approach using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) data to train a deep learning algorithm to quantify glaucomatous structural damage on optic disc photographs. The dataset included 32,820 pairs of optic disc photos and SDOCT retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) scans from 2,312 eyes of 1,198 subjects. A deep learning convolutional neural network was trained to assess optic disc photographs and predict SDOCT average RNFL thickness. The performance of the algorithm was evaluated in an independent test sample. The mean prediction of average RNFL thickness from all 6,292 optic disc photos in the test set was 83.3$\pm$14.5 $\mu$m, whereas the mean average RNFL thickness from all corresponding SDOCT scans was 82.5$\pm$16.8 $\mu$m (P = 0.164). There was a very strong correlation between predicted and observed RNFL thickness values (r = 0.832; P<0.001), with mean absolute error of the predictions of 7.39 $\mu$m. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for discriminating glaucoma from healthy eyes with the deep learning predictions and actual SDOCT measurements were 0.944 (95$\%$ CI: 0.912- 0.966) and 0.940 (95$\%$ CI: 0.902 - 0.966), respectively (P = 0.724). In conclusion, we introduced a novel deep learning approach to assess optic disc photographs and provide quantitative information about the amount of neural damage. This approach could potentially be used to diagnose and stage glaucomatous damage from optic disc photographs.