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Measles deaths highlight immunization program gaps. In the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance study in Mali, we observed a rise in under-5 measles-related deaths in 2022 that corresponded with increased measles cases at the same time and a decline in measles vaccine coverage in Mali in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Between 2003 and 2019, three trials (randomised controlled trials [RCTs]) in Guinea-Bissau randomised infants to an early 2-dose measles vaccine (MV) schedule at 4 and 9 months vs standard MV at 9 months. The RCTs produced contradictory mortality results; the effect being beneficial in the 2-dose group in the first but tending to have higher mortality in the last two RCTs. We hypothesised that increased frequency of campaigns with oral polio vaccine (C-OPV) explained the pattern., Methods: We performed per-protocol analysis of individual-level survival data from the three RCTs in Cox proportional hazards models yielding hazard ratios (HR) for the 2-dose vs the 1-dose MV group. We examined whether timing of C-OPVs and early administration of OPV0 (birth to day 14) affected the HRs for 2-dose/1-dose MV., Results: The combined HR(2-dose/1-dose) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.00) for children receiving no C-OPV-before-enrolment, but 1.39 (0.97-1.99) for those receiving C-OPV-before-enrolment (homogeneity, P = 0.01). C-OPV-before-enrolment had a beneficial effect in the 1-dose group but tended to have a negative effect in the 2-dose group, especially in females. These effects were amplified further by early administration of OPV0., Conclusion: In the absence of C-OPVs, an early 2-dose MV strategy had beneficial effects on mortality, but frequent C-OPVs may have benefitted the 1-dose group more than the 2-dose MV group, leading to varying results depending on the intensity of C-OPVs., Competing Interests: Declarations of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objectives: To explore whether synergistic epidemics of measles and scarlet fever in 1860s-1870s Victoria, Australia could be characterized as syndemics, we apply the methods of Sawchuk, Tripp, and Samakaroon (Social Science & Medicine 2022, 295, 112956) to quantify the impact of each of the two major co-occurring epidemic events (1867, 1875) in terms of life expectancy (LE) changes. Sawchuk et al. posit the presence of a harvesting effect, indicated by a statistically significant increase in LE in the immediate post-epidemic "fallow period", as a criterion for identification of a historical syndemic. We test an alternate hypothesis that the same methods can identify a short-term scarring effect., Materials and Methods: Using annual age- and cause-specific death statistics and census population data, we constructed abridged period life tables for baseline period, potential syndemic year, and "fallow" year for each of the two periods (1860s and 1870s). We compared LE at birth using Z-tests. We decomposed age-cause-specific mortality according to Arriaga's method to identify age-and cause-specific contributions to LE change., Results: LE was significantly lower than baseline (1864-1865) in 1867 but not in the "fallow" year (1869). LE in 1875 and the 1878 "fallow" year were both significantly below baseline (1871-1873). Age-cause-specific decomposition showed similar patterns for 1867 and 1875 for measles and scarlet fever combined effects., Discussion: Evidence of a scarring effect following the 1875 measles/scarlet fever combined peak supports the interpretation of this event as a syndemic. We suggest the short-term scarring effect can be a useful additional criterion for identifying historical syndemics., (© 2024 The Author(s). American Journal of Biological Anthropology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: Between 2000 and 2018, global measles deaths decreased by 73%, but the disease remains prevalent in many developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia. Although Ethiopia was attempting to eliminate the measles, it still ranks fourth in the world in terms of the number of cases. The aim of the investigation was to describe the outbreak and identify its determinants in the Aneded district., Methods: Between March 3, 2020, and April 2, 2020, the 89 patients and 178 controls participated in a case-control study. Data were gathered by means of in-person interviews with household leaders. The attack and case fatality rates were determined. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, variables having a p-value of less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant cut-off points., Results: An investigation was conducted on a total of 89 measles cases, with 3 deaths and 178 controls. In total, there were 1.65 attacks per 1000 people, or 3.4% of the case fatality rate. There were 155 days of outbreak duration. The disease was significantly associated with being female [adjusted odds ratios (AOR) = 2.66; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.38-5.11], under 5 years old [AOR = 7.24; 95% CI = 2.58-20.31], positive in attitude [AOR = 0.22; 95% CI = 0.11-0.42], and having a contact history [AOR = 3.19; 95% CI = 1.67-6.10]., Conclusion: The measles outbreak, with its higher attack and case fatality rate, has been influenced by factors like household attitudes, age, sex, contact and travel history and needs to be reduced through early detection, active surveillance, and fostering favorable attitudes towards disease prevention and control., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objectives: We examined measles mortality in the European past in an outbreak in an isolated German village, Hagelloch, in 1861.Methods: Pfeilsticker's contemporary thesis was used to describe the measles case fatality ratio (CFR) and complications. Data on onset of prodromes and rash was used to determine index cases and secondary cases of measles within the household. The church register provided information on survival in 1862.Results: The epidemic affected nearly all children under 14 years of age. The overall CFR was 6.4%(12/187), and 10%(7/70) for children under five years of age; 44% of children were secondary cases (82/187). Secondary cases had higher CFR than index cases (RR = 3.03 (95% CI: 0.91-10.07). Boys had higher CFR than girls (RR = 4.46 (1.03-19.22)). Boys infected by a girl had higher CFR than boys infected by other boys (RR = 6.30 (1.18-85.64)). Children who survived measles virus infection in 1861, did not have higher mortality in the following year compared with those who had not had measles in 1861 (RR = 0.24 (0.07-0.82)).Conclusions: Severe measles in the European past had determinants similar to those observed more recently in low-income countries.Brief Summary: The measles case fatality was 6% in rural Germany in 1861. Mortality was highest for boys infected in the household by a girl. There was no excess mortality after the acute phase of measles infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until the early twentieth century, populations on many Pacific Islands had never experienced measles. As travel to the Pacific Islands by Europeans became more common, the arrival of measles and other pathogens had devastating consequences. In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles epidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. Measles is known to disrupt immune system function. Here, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.

Measles is one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in the pediatric population and it can be prevented with 100% effectiveness by vaccination. However, the disease remains active in throughout Brazil. The scope of this article is to evaluate the population's adherence to vaccination and the potential connection with hospitalizations and mortality in relation to measles in Brazil. This is an ecological study based on secondary data on mortality and hospitalizations due to measles and vaccination coverage against the disease in Brazil from 2013 to 2022. The peak of adherence to the measles vaccination schedule occurred in the 3 years that preceded the eradication of the disease in the country, which occurred in 2016. In this interval, there are the lowest hospitalization rates, with zero mortality from 2014 to 2017. On the other hand, there has been a marked drop in vaccination rates since 2019, when the disease resurfaced in Brazil. Concomitantly, hospitalization and mortality rates reach the highest recorded values. Population adherence to the complete measles vaccination schedule, which is essential to control the disease and related deaths, is insufficient, which is reflected in hospitalization and mortality rates.

While not denying the tragedy of the high mortality of people in the concentration camps in the South African War of 1899 - 1902, this article suggests that, for Lord Milner and the British Colonial Office, the camps became a means of introducing the rural society of the Boers to the facilities of modern life. To some extent they became, in effect, part of Milner's project for 'civilising' and assimilating the Boers into British colonial society. The high mortality rate was finally contained through the introduction of a modern public health system, including the use of statistics and the employment of qualified doctors and nurses. Young Boer women working in the camp hospitals as nurse aids were trained as 'probationers' and classes in infant and child care were offered to the Boer mothers. In addition, the need for adequate water supplies and effective sanitation meant that an infrastructure was established in the camps that familiarised the Boers with modern sanitary routines and left a legacy of more substantial services for the Transvaal and Orange Free State villages. Author comment: My article was never intended to denigrate Afrikaners in any way. The republican Boers were caught up in an unjust war and they suffered dreadful losses as a result. However, I have argued elsewhere that many of the farm families, who had had little contact with modern preventive medicine, functioned within a different cultural world from the British who ran the camps. I have discussed this in much more detail in the following article: Van Heyningen E. Women and disease. The clash of medical cultures in the concentration camps of the South African War. In: Cuthbertson G, Grundlingh A, Suttie M-L, editors. Writing a wider war. Rethinking gender, race, and identity in the South African War, 1899 - 1902. Athens: Ohio University Press, 2002; p. 186 - 212. A shorter version of the article has also been published in Van Heyningen E. British doctors versus Boer women: Clash of medical cultures. In: Pretorius F, editor. Scorched Earth. Cape Town: Human & Rousseau, 2001; p. 78 - 197. There is also an Afrikaans version of this book published under the title of Verskroeide aarde. The same ideas are discussed by Professor Pretorius and myself in the documentary Scorched Earth which has been aired several times recently on the History Channel of DSTV.

While not denying the tragedy of the high mortality of people in the concentration camps in the South African War of 1899-1902, this article suggests that, for Lord Milner and the British Colonial Office, the camps became a means of introducing the rural society of the Boers to the facilities of modern life. To some extent they became, in effect, part of Milner's project for 'civilising' and assimilating the Boers into British colonial society. The high mortality rate was finally contained through the introduction of a modern public health system, including the use of statistics and the employment of qualified doctors and nurses. Young Boer women working in the camp hospitals as nurse aids were trained as 'probationers' and classes in infant and child care were offered to the Boer mothers. In addition, the need for adequate water supplies and effective sanitation meant that an infrastructure was established in the camps that familiarised the Boers with modern sanitary routines and left a legacy of more substantial services for the Transvaal and Orange Free State villages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background: Case fatality ratio (CFR) among all age groups during the 2016-2018 measles outbreak in Romania was increased compared with previous outbreaks. To identify risk factors for measles death, we conducted a case-control study among infants and children hospitalized for measles., Methods: National surveillance data were used to identify hospitalized cases of laboratory-confirmed or epidemiologically linked measles in infants and children aged < 59 months with rash onset from January 2016 to July 2018. We abstracted medical records of 50 fatal cases ("cases") and 250 non-fatal cases ("controls") matched by age, sex, district of residence, and urban/rural place of residence. We calculated univariable and multivariable matched odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors., Results: Ninety-three percent of case-patients and controls had not received a valid dose of a measles-containing vaccine; only 5 % received Vitamin A supplementation once diagnosed with measles. In the univariable analysis, cases were more likely than controls to have had a healthcare-related exposure to measles manifesting as inpatient admission for pneumonia during the 7 to 21 day measles incubation period (OR: 3.0; 95% CI [1.2, 7.2]), to have had a history of malnutrition (OR: 3.4; 95% CI [1.1, 9.9]), and to have had pneumonia as a complication of measles (OR:7.1; 95% CI [2.0-24.8]). In the multivariable analysis, pneumonia as a measles complication remained a risk for death (OR: 7.1; 95% CI [1.4-35.3])., Conclusions: Implementing infection prevention and control practices, ensuring immunization of healthcare workers, and hospitalizing only severe measles cases may minimize the risk of nosocomial measles transmission. Implementing World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for Vitamin A supplementation, improving immunization of children to prevent influenza, pneumococcal, and other bacterial respiratory diseases may decrease complications and deaths due to measles in Romania.

Objectives: Quantitative estimates of the impact of infectious disease outbreaks are required to develop measured policy responses. In many low- and middle-income countries, inadequate surveillance and incompleteness of death registration are important barriers., Design: Here, we characterize how large an impact on mortality would have to be for being detectable using the uniquely detailed mortality notification data from the city of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with application to a recent measles outbreak., Results: The weekly mortality rate of children during the 2018-2019 measles outbreak was 161% above the expected value at its peak, and the signal can be detected earlier in children than in the general population. This approach to detect anomalies from expected baseline mortality allows us to delineate the prevalence of COVID-19 at which excess mortality would be detectable with the existing death notification system in Antananarivo., Conclusions: Given current age-specific estimates of the COVID-19 fatality ratio and the age structure of the population in Antananarivo, we estimate that as few as 11 deaths per week in the 60-70 years age group (corresponding to an infection rate of approximately 1%) would detectably exceed the baseline. Data from 2020 will undergo necessary processing and quality control in the coming months. Our results provide a baseline for interpreting this information., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: The author has declared that no competing interests exist.

In 2010, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set the following three milestones for measles control to be achieved by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children aged 1 year to ≥90% at the national level and to ≥80% in every district, 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per 1 million population, and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate* (1). In 2012, WHA endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan, † with the objective of eliminating measles § in five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2020. This report describes progress toward WHA milestones and regional measles elimination during 2000-2019 and updates a previous report (2). During 2000-2010, estimated MCV1 coverage increased globally from 72% to 84% but has since plateaued at 84%-85%. All countries conducted measles surveillance; however, approximately half did not achieve the sensitivity indicator target of two or more discarded measles and rubella cases per 100,000 population. Annual reported measles incidence decreased 88%, from 145 to 18 cases per 1 million population during 2000-2016; the lowest incidence occurred in 2016, but by 2019 incidence had risen to 120 cases per 1 million population. During 2000-2019, the annual number of estimated measles deaths decreased 62%, from 539,000 to 207,500; an estimated 25.5 million measles deaths were averted. To drive progress toward the regional measles elimination targets, additional strategies are needed to help countries reach all children with 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine, identify and close immunity gaps, and improve surveillance., Competing Interests: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

Background: We assessed a measles vaccination campaign's potential short-term adverse events., Methods: In a cluster-randomized trial assessing a measles vaccination campaign's effect on all-cause mortality and hospital admission among children aged 9-59 months in Guinea-Bissau, children received a measles vaccination (intervention) or a health check-up (control). One month to 2 months later, we visited a subgroup of children to ask mothers/guardians about outpatient consultations since enrollment. In log-binomial models, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of nonaccidental outpatient consultations., Results: Among 8319 children (4437 intervention/3882 control), 652 nonaccidental outpatient consultations occurred (322 intervention/330 control). The measles vaccination campaign tended to reduce nonaccidental outpatient consultations by 16% (RR, 0.84 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .65-1.11]), especially if caused by respiratory symptoms (RR, 0.68 [95% CI, .42-1.11]). The reduction tended to be larger in children who prior to trial enrollment had a pentavalent vaccination (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, and Haemophilus influenzae type b) as the most recent vaccination (RR, 0.61 [95% CI, .42-.89]) than in children who prior to trial enrollment had a routine measles vaccination as the most recent vaccination (RR, 0.93 [95% CI, .68-1.26]) (P = .04 for interaction)., Conclusions: In the short term, a measles vaccination campaign seems not to increase nonaccidental outpatient consultations but may reduce them., Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03460002., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Introduction: measles is the leading vaccine preventable childhood disease designated for elimination by WHO. More than 20 million people are affected by measles each year, particularly in Africa and Asia. With annual outbreaks reported from Ethiopia´s Oromia region. We analyzed measles containing vaccine coverage (MCV), measles cases and measles deaths over a 10-year period (2007-2016)., Methods: we reviewed Oromia measles surveillance data and first-dose measles containing vaccine (MCV1) administrative coverage. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression were performed to assess variables associated with measles death. Additional spatial mapping was performed to visually display key areas of measles case distribution in Oromia., Results: a total of 26,908 measles suspect cases were identified, of which 18,223 (68%) were confirmed. A median age of 6 years (IQ range 0.5-71 years) and 288 deaths were observed. Among the total cases, 29% were unvaccinated and 46% had unknown vaccination status. The highest IR was seen in Guji zone (IR=190/100,000 population) among 1-4 years, with a majority from rural areas. Risk factors associated with death include age <5 years (AOR=1.82, CI: 1.42-2.33), unvaccinated status (AOR=1.44, CI: 1.06-1.95) and inpatient treatment (AOR=2.12, CI: 1.58-2.85). Of 8,732 measles IgM negative/indeterminate specimens, 10.5% tested positive for rubella specific IgM., Conclusion: outbreaks of measles are an ongoing public health concern in the Oromia region. Children aged 1-15 years remain at high risk for contracting measles in the region. We recommend strengthening routine immunization to reach all children, especially in rural areas and that the measles-rubella (MR) vaccine be considered., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: Mulugeta Asefa Gutu et al.)

Background: The pandemic of COVID-19 has occurred close on the heels of a global resurgence of measles. In 2019, an unprecedented epidemic of measles affected Samoa, requiring a state of emergency to be declared. Measles causes an immune amnesia which can persist for over 2 years after acute infection and increases the risk of a range of other infections., Methods: We modelled the potential impact of measles-induced immune amnesia on a COVID-19 epidemic in Samoa using data on measles incidence in 2018-2019, population data and a hypothetical COVID-19 epidemic., Results: The young population structure and contact matrix in Samoa results in the most transmission occurring in young people < 20 years old. The highest rate of death is the 60+ years old, but a smaller peak in death may occur in younger people, with more than 15% of total deaths in the age group under 20 years old. Measles induced immune amnesia could increase the total number of cases by 8% and deaths by more than 2%., Conclusions: Samoa, which had large measles epidemics in 2019-2020 should focus on rapidly achieving high rates of measles vaccination and enhanced surveillance for COVID-19, as the impact may be more severe due to measles-induced immune paresis. This applies to other severely measles-affected countries in the Pacific, Europe and elsewhere.

Objective and Design: Risk factors for severe measles are poorly investigated in high-income countries. The Italian Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases conducted a retrospective study in children hospitalised for measles from January 2016 to August 2017 to investigate the risk factors for severe outcome defined by the presence of long-lasting sequelae, need of intensive care or death., Results: Nineteen hospitals enrolled 249 children (median age 14.5 months): 207 (83%) children developed a complication and 3 (1%) died. Neutropaenia was more commonly reported in children with B3-genotype compared with other genotypes (29.5% vs 7.7%, p=0.01). Pancreatitis (adjusted OR [aOR] 9.19, p=0.01) and encephalitis (aOR 7.02, p=0.04) were related to severe outcome in multivariable analysis, as well as C reactive protein (CRP) (aOR 1.1, p=0.028), the increase of which predicted severe outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.67, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.82). CRP values >2 mg/dL were related to higher risk of complications (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.7, p=0.01) or severe outcome (OR 4.13, 95% CI 1.43 to 11.8, p<0.01)., Conclusion: The risk of severe outcome in measles is independent of age and underlying conditions, but is related to the development of organ complications and may be predicted by CRP value., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Measles incidence and mortality rates have significantly decreased since vaccine introduction. Despite this progress, however, there has been a global resurgence of measles. To understand the current global epidemiology, we analyzed measles surveillance data., Methods: We analyzed data on measles cases from 2013-2018 reported to the World Health Organization. Univariate analysis was undertaken based on age, vaccination history, onset year, World Health Organization region, and World Bank income status for the country where the case was reported, and a surrogate indicator of the historical strength of the country's immunization program. Annual incidence and a 2013-2018 mean country incidence per million were calculated., Results: From 2013 through 2018, there were 899 800 reported measles cases, of which 57% occurred unvaccinated or undervaccinated persons, with an unknown vaccination history in another 30%. Lower-middle-income countries accounted for 66% of cases, 23% occurred in persons ≥15 years of age. In countries with stronger historical vaccination programs and higher country income, case patients had higher median ages., Conclusions: Although most measles case patients are <15 years of age, an age shift is seen in countries with a higher income or a stronger historical vaccination program. Countries must strengthen immunization programs to achieve high vaccination coverage; some must undertake strategies to reach persons ≥15 years of age and close immunity gaps., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Measles is a significant concern with approximately 10 million people infected annually causing over 100,000 deaths worldwide. In the US before use of the measles vaccine, there were estimated to be 3 to 4 million people infected with measles annually, causing 400 to 500 deaths. Complications of measles include otitis media, diarrhea, pneumonia, and acute encephalitis. Measles is a leading cause of blindness in the developing world, especially in those who are vitamin A deficient. Malnourished children with measles are also at higher risk of developing noma (or cancrum oris), a rapidly progressive gangrenous infection of the mouth and face. Most deaths due to measles are caused by pneumonia, diarrhea, or neurological complications in young children, severely malnourished or immunocompromised individuals, and pregnant women. A rare sequela of measles is subacute sclerosing panencephalitis., (2020.)

Background: Measles is an extremely contagious, vaccine-preventable infection that was officially declared eradicated in the US in 2000. However, measles outbreaks are increasingly occurring in the US. Measles cases have considerable morbidity requiring hospitalization, yet little is known about hospitalization and complications from measles in recent years., Objectives: To analyze the frequency, predictors, costs and other outcomes of hospitalization for measles in the US., Methods: The 2002-2016 Nationwide Inpatient Sample, containing a 20% sample of US hospitalizations (n = 96,568,625), was analyzed. Measles and comorbidities were defined by International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) or ICD-10-CM codes. Multivariable survey logistic regression and linear regression models controlling for sociodemographic demographic factors were constructed to understand associations with organ-specific complications, and cost of care and length of stay, respectively., Results: Overall, 1,018 measles hospitalizations occurred in 2002-2016, and hospitalizations increased over time. In multivariable logistic regression models, measles was associated with higher odds of gastrointestinal, hematologic, infectious, neurologic, ophthalmologic, pulmonary, and renal complications, with the strongest association observed with encephalitis (39.84 [16.51-96.12], P<0.0001). Increased length of stay (LOS) and similar cost of care (mean [95% CI]; 4.8 [4.4-5.4]; $7,438 [$6,446-$8,582]) were observed versus (vs.) all other admissions (4.5 [4.4-4.5]; P<0.01; $7,854 [$7,774-$7,935], P>0.05). There were 34 deaths in hospitalized measles patients; inpatient mortality was numerically higher in those with vs. without measles (proportion ± SEM: 3.3±1.2% vs. 2.3±0.01%, P = 0.333)., Limitations: Lack of outpatient or prescription data., Conclusions: Measles continues to pose a substantial and preventable health care burden, with serious complications, hospitalization and inpatient mortality. Further studies are needed to improve the prevention and management of measles., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: Recent measles outbreaks in the United States and Europe have highlighted the threat of the disease. We studied the 1917-1918 epidemic in Puerto Rico to better understand the social and place-specific risk factors and severity of such crises., Methods: We reviewed medical and government reports, newspapers and private contemporary documents., Results: The epidemic developed over two years, encompassed the Island, and caused nearly 2,000 deaths among more than 9,000 registered cases (with much underreporting). During the first six months, 59% of fatalities were children under 2 years of age. Officials recognized poor nutrition and living conditions as an important determinant of epidemic severity. Responses came from different social sectors before the central government mobilized to help. In San Juan, Catholic and Protestant churches and philanthropic women from both Spanish and Englishlanguage communities joined to provide free milk to needy children and create a temporary Infants' Hospital. Despite food scarcity and wartime conditions, central and municipal governments established hospitals and milk stations., Conclusion: Studies that examine the impact of reemerging diseases in a time and place-specific context look at disease severity together with the socioeconomic conditions of patients and health care systems. This type of investigation also suggests avenues into the history of pediatrics, the use of epidemiologic methods, the utility of historical statistics, nutritional history, and the history of disaster response. Historical and recent outbreaks show the need for health care professionals and public health systems to be prepared to confront measles epidemics.

Introduction: Measles is a highly infectious vaccine-preventable viral disease that mostly affects children less than five years old. Jigawa located in the north-west zone has the highest burden of measles in Nigeria. We reviewed Jigawa State measles surveillance data to identify measles trend and factors associated with mortality., Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis of measles specific integrated disease surveillance and response data for Jigawa State from January 2013 to December 2017. We extracted relevant variables and analyzed data using descriptive statistics and logistic regression model (α = 0.05). We estimated seasonal variation using an additive time series model., Results: A total of 6,214 cases were recorded with 1038 (16.7%) confirmed by laboratory investigation. Only 1,185 (19.7%) had at least one dose of measles vaccine. Age specific attack and fatality rates were highest among children under the age of five years (503/100,000 and 1.8% respectively). The trend showed a decrease in number of cases across all the years. Seasonal variation existed with cases peaking in the first quarter. The likelihood of mortality associated with measles was higher among cases who had no vaccination (AOR = 4.7, 95% CI: 2.9-7.5) than those who had at least one dose of measles vaccine., Conclusion: There was a decrease in the trend of measles cases, however, the vaccination coverage was very low in Jigawa State. Receiving at least one dose of measles vaccine reduces mortality among the cases. Strengthening routine immunization will reduce number of cases and mortality associated with the disease., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© Aisha Sani Faruk et al.)

Several live vaccines may have beneficial non-specific effects (NSEs) reducing mortality more than can be explained by the prevention of the target infection, a phenomenon which has been linked to innate immune training. Most randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of oral polio vaccine (OPV) and measles vaccine (MV) have shown a large reduction in mortality that must have been at least partly nonspecific because it was much larger than the reduction explained by prevention of the target disease. Hence, stopping a live vaccine after disease-eradication could have negative health effects if the potential beneficial NSEs are not considered. We reviewed one eradicated disease, smallpox, and two infections likely to be eradicated in coming decades, polio and measles. No study was made of unintended effects of stopping smallpox vaccination when it happened in 1980. We have subsequently documented in both Guinea-Bissau and Denmark that smallpox-vaccinated individuals continued to have a survival advantage long after smallpox had been eradicated. The few studies which have examined the effect of OPV on survival all suggest strong beneficial NSEs; in RCTs, OPV compared with inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been associated with non-specific reductions in morbidity. RCTs, natural experiments and observational studies have found strong beneficial NSEs for MV. Hence, the imminent eradication of polio and the planned stop of OPV in 2024 and the subsequent eradication of measles infection and the possible stop to live MV could have negative effects for child survival. Before live vaccines are phased out, potential unintended effects of stopping these vaccines should be thoroughly studied., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Measles is a contagious disease that re-emerged among young adults as a consequence of suboptimal vaccination coverage. Since in the pre-vaccination era measles affected mainly children, little is known about measles-associated respiratory complications in adults. The aim of this study was to describe clinical and radiological findings in adults affected by measles who developed respiratory complications during a recent measles outbreak., Material and Methods: In this retrospective chart review-based study we analyzed data from patients admitted for measles from January to June 2018 to a large tertiary care hospital, in one of the main cities in the south of Italy. This city has been the country's heart of the epidemic with a high morbidity and mortality rate., Results: Among 177 patients (mean age 26 ± 9 years), only 2 were vaccinated. Thirty patients (16.9%) had signs of pneumonia on chest radiography. Computed tomography scan showed the following abnormalities: centrilobular nodules (63%), ground-glass attenuation (63%), air-space consolidation (36%), pleural effusion (16%) and pneumothorax (10%). Five patients developed severe lung injury and hypoxemia requiring admission to Intensive Care Unit. Two young unvaccinated women with no past medical history died from acute respiratory failure. The death was sudden and unpredictable., Conclusions: Measles-associated pneumonia in unvaccinated young adults can cause severe respiratory impairment and death. Our findings support the need for a mandatory vaccination policy.

In 2010, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set the following three milestones for measles control to be achieved by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children aged 1 year to ≥90% at the national level and to ≥80% in every district, 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to less than five cases per 1 million population, and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate* (1). In 2012, WHA endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan, † with the objective of eliminating measles § in five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2020. This report updates a previous report (2) and describes progress toward WHA milestones and regional measles elimination during 2000-2018. During 2000-2018, estimated MCV1 coverage increased globally from 72% to 86%; annual reported measles incidence decreased 66%, from 145 to 49 cases per 1 million population; and annual estimated measles deaths decreased 73%, from 535,600 to 142,300. During 2000-2018, measles vaccination averted an estimated 23.2 million deaths. However, the number of measles cases in 2018 increased 167% globally compared with 2016, and estimated global measles mortality has increased since 2017. To continue progress toward the regional measles elimination targets, resource commitments are needed to strengthen routine immunization systems, close historical immunity gaps, and improve surveillance. To achieve measles elimination, all communities and countries need coordinated efforts aiming to reach ≥95% coverage with 2 doses of measles vaccine (3)., Competing Interests: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

In 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region countries, including China, resolved to eliminate measles by 2012 or as soon as feasible thereafter (1). As of 2018, nine* of the 37 Western Pacific Region countries or areas † had eliminated § measles. China's Measles Elimination Action Plan 2006-2012 included strengthening routine immunization; conducting measles risk assessments, followed by supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) with measles-containing vaccine (MCV) at national and subnational levels; strengthening surveillance and laboratory capacity; and investigating and responding to measles outbreaks. Most recently, progress toward measles elimination in China was described in a 2014 report documenting measles elimination efforts in China during 2008-2012 and a resurgence in 2013 (2). This report describes progress toward measles elimination in China during January 2013-June 2019. ¶ Measles incidence per million persons decreased from 20.4 in 2013 to 2.8 in 2018; reported measles-related deaths decreased from 32 in 2015 to one in 2018 and no deaths in 2019 through June. Measles elimination in China can be achieved through strengthening the immunization program's existing strategy by ensuring sufficient vaccine supply; continuing to improve laboratory-supported surveillance, outbreak investigation and response; strengthening school entry vaccination record checks; vaccinating students who do not have documentation of receipt of 2 doses of measles-rubella vaccine; and vaccinating health care professionals and other adults at risk for measles., Competing Interests: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

Background: Surveillance data from a large measles outbreak in Mongolia suggested increased case fatality ratio (CFR) in the second of 2 waves. To confirm the increase in CFR and identify risk factors for measles death, we enhanced mortality ascertainment and conducted a case-control study among infants hospitalized for measles., Methods: We linked national vital records with surveillance data of clinically or laboratory-confirmed infant (aged <12 months) measles cases with rash onset during March-September 2015 (wave 1) and October 2015-June 2016 (wave 2). We abstracted medical charts of 95 fatal cases and 273 nonfatal cases hospitalized for measles, matched by age and sex. We calculated adjusted matched odds ratios (amORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors., Results: Infant measles deaths increased from 3 among 2224 cases (CFR: 0.13%) in wave 1 to 113 among 4884 cases (CFR: 2.31%) in wave 2 (P < .001). Inpatient admission, 7-21 days before measles rash onset, for pneumonia or influenza (amOR: 4.5; CI, 2.6-8.0), but not other diagnoses, was significantly associated with death., Discussion: Measles infection among children hospitalized with respiratory infections likely increased deaths due to measles during wave 2. Preventing measles virus nosocomial transmission likely decreases measles mortality., (Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2019.)

This study recognises periodic outbreaks of measles continue to affect conflict and fragile zones in the least developed countries. This study set out to provide evidence for the indirect costs or economic loss associated with measles-related deaths among children aged 0-14 years in Somalia. Using epidemiologic and economic data, the indirect cost was calculated based on the framework of the World Health Organisation guide of identifying the economic consequences of disease and injury. The baseline indirect cost was computed as the product of discounted future productive years of life lost (PYLL), non-health gross domestic product per capita (NHGDPPC) and the estimated total measles deaths (ETMD). The model was adjusted for conflict and fragility conditions and further extension considered a finite and stable upper limit growth of the instability-adjusted NHGDPPC. To discount future costs, a rate of 3% was applied. Using a ±20% variability assumption of the epidemiologic and economic factor inputs, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for uncertainty. In 2015 values, the ETMD of 3723 measles deaths of children aged 0-14 years could decrease non-health GDP of the country by $23.46 million, a potential loss of $6303 per death over the discounted PYLL. The loss would increase by 5.3% when adjusted for conflict and fragility conditions. Assuming growth, the future adjusted loss is expected to be $35.91 million in 2015 values. Girl-child deaths accounted for 51.2% of the burden. Results are robust to the variations in the model inputs, although sensitivity analyses suggest the proportion of total measles deaths and the discount rate accounted for greater uncertainty of the loss than do the proportion of growth and instability assumption. Conflict and fragility accounted for the least uncertainty, perhaps confirming their relative perpetuity in Somalia. Results show significant indirect cost related to measles deaths of children, exacerbated by conflict and fragility. This is an economic burden, but one which the health system, policy-makers, government and other stakeholders should be prepared to colossally discount by collectively taking measles surveillance and security measures now to reduce further deaths in the future.

BackgroundSince January 2016, a resurgence of measles in Romania has led to the third measles epidemic in the past 12 years; 64 deaths have been confirmed so far-the highest number of measles-related deaths since the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine was introduced in 2004.AimTo provide an overview on the characterisation on measles in Romania after the introduction of the MMR vaccine with focus on the current outbreak, laboratory and molecular analysis.MethodsWe performed an analysis of measles incidence and mortality after the introduction of MMR vaccination and a retrospective study using serological and molecular data in three consecutive outbreaks with focus on the current outbreak.ResultsIn the current outbreak, 17,533 measles cases were notified to the national surveillance system, 93% were unvaccinated. Measles virus was isolated from 429 samples and 283 were genotyped. Genotype B3 was predominant (n = 269) and sporadic measles cases associated with D8 genotype (n = 9) were also observed; genotype D4 and D8 were identified in the previous two measles outbreaks. The detection of several distinct measles virus B3 genotypes suggests multiple virus importations to Romania.ConclusionThe current outbreak is a consequence of insufficient vaccine coverage. Control measures were implemented to improve uptake of MMR vaccine, including administering the first MMR dose at a younger age (9-11 months) and offering catch-up vaccination to children that have not followed the recommended dosing schedule. More measures are needed to improve the surveillance performance and to achieve high routine MMR vaccination coverage.

It was previously shown by hemagglutination inhibition that measles vaccination in the presence of maternal measles antibodies was associated with reduced all-cause mortality. We confirmed this serological association using a multiplexed immunoassay as a sensitive alternative and estimated a threshold concentration (28.7 mIU/mL) that correlates with lower all-cause mortality (P = .02)., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

IntroductionEstimating burden of disease (BoD) is an essential first step in the decision-making process on introducing new vaccines into national immunisation programmes (NIPs). For varicella, a common vaccine-preventable disease, BoD in the Netherlands was unknown.AimTo assess national varicella BoD and compare it to BoD of other vaccine-preventable diseases before their introduction in the NIP.MethodsIn this health estimates reporting study, BoD was expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using methodology from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project. As no parameters/disease model for varicella (including herpes zoster) were available in the BCoDE toolkit, incidence, disease progression model and parameters were derived from seroprevalence, healthcare registries and published data. For most other diseases, BoD was estimated with existing BCoDE-parameters, adapted to the Netherlands if needed.ResultsIn 2017, the estimated BoD of varicella in the Netherlands was 1,800 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1,800-1,900) DALYs. Herpes zoster mainly contributed to this BoD (1,600 DALYs; 91%), which was generally lower than the BoD of most current NIP diseases in the year before their introduction into the NIP. However, BoD for varicella was higher than for rotavirus gastroenteritis (1,100; 95%UI: 440-2,200 DALYs) and meningococcal B disease (620; 95%UI: 490-770 DALYs), two other potential NIP candidates.ConclusionsWhen considering the introduction of a new vaccine in the NIP, BoD is usually estimated in isolation. The current approach assesses BoD in relation to other vaccine-preventable diseases' BoD, which may help national advisory committees on immunisation and policymakers to set vaccination priorities.

Background: In the 21st century, increases in immunisation coverage and decreases in under-5 mortality have substantially reduced the global burden of measles mortality. However, the assessment of measles mortality burden is highly dependent on estimates of case-fatality ratios for measles, which can vary according to geography, health systems infrastructure, prevalence of underlying risk factors, and measles endemicity. With imprecise case-fatality ratios, there is continued uncertainty about the burden of measles mortality and the effect of measles vaccination. In this study, we aimed to update the estimations of case-fatality ratios for measles, to develop a prediction model to estimate case-fatality ratios across heterogeneous groupings, and to project future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030., Methods: We did a review of the literature to identify studies examining measles cases and deaths in low-income and middle-income countries in all age groups from 1980 to 2016. We extracted data on case-fatality ratios for measles overall and by age, where possible. We developed and examined several types of generalised linear models and determined the best-fit model according to the Akaike information criterion. We then selected a best-fit model to estimate measles case-fatality ratios from 1990 to 2015 and projected future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030., Findings: We selected 124 peer-reviewed journal articles published between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016, for inclusion in the final review-85 community-based studies and 39 hospital-based studies. We selected a log-linear prediction model, resulting in a mean case-fatality ratio of 2·2% (95% CI 0·7-4·5) in 1990-2015. In community-based settings, the mean case-fatality ratio was 1·5% (0·5-3·1) compared with 2·9% (0·9-6·0) in hospital-based settings. The mean projected case-fatality ratio in 2016-2030 was 1·3% (0·4-3·7)., Interpretation: Case-fatality ratios for measles have seen substantial declines since the 1990s. Our study provides an updated estimation of case-fatality ratios that could help to refine assessment of the effect on mortality of measles control and elimination programmes., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

India comprises much of the persisting global childhood measles mortality. India implemented a mass second-dose measles immunization campaign in 2010. We used interrupted time series and multilevel regression to quantify the campaign's impact on measles mortality using the nationally representative Million Death Study (including 27,000 child deaths in 1.3 million households surveyed from 2005 to 2013). 1-59 month measles mortality rates fell more in the campaign states following launch (27%) versus non-campaign states (11%). Declines were steeper in girls than boys and were specific to measles deaths. Measles mortality risk was lower for children living in a campaign district (OR 0.6, 99% CI 0.4-0.8) or born in 2009 or later (OR 0.8, 99% CI 0.7-0.9). The campaign averted up to 41,000-56,000 deaths during 2010-13, or 39-57% of the expected deaths nationally. Elimination of measles deaths in India is feasible., Competing Interests: BW, SF, SA, AK, RK, GM No competing interests declared, PJ Prabhat Jha is a Reviewing Editor at eLife, (© 2019, Wong et al.)