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In light of a warming climate, the complexity of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) makes its prediction a challenge. In addition to various flavors of ENSO, oceanic warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is not always accompanied by corresponding atmospheric anomalies; that is, the atmosphere and ocean remain uncoupled. Such uncoupled warm events as happened in 1979, 2004, 2014, and 2018 are rare and represent an unusual form of ENSO diversity. A weaker zonal sea surface temperature anomaly gradient across the tropical Pacific compared to a conventional El Niño may partially account for the decoupling. Also, the uncoupled warm events typically start late in the calendar year, which raises the possible influence of seasonality in background conditions for the lack of coupling. Without coupling, the impact of the warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific on extratropical climate is different from that of its coupled counterpart.

Following the interdecadal shift of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties that occurred in 1976/77, another regime shift happened in 1999/2000 that featured a decrease of variability and an increase in ENSO frequency. Specifically, the frequency spectrum of Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature shifted from dominant variations at quasi-quadrennial (∼4 yr) periods during 1979-99 to weaker fluctuations at quasi-biennial (∼2 yr) periods during 2000-18. Also, the spectrum of warm water volume (WWV)index had almost no peak in 2000-18, implying a nearly white noise process. The regime shift was associated with an enhanced zonal gradient of the mean state, awestward shift in the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the tropical Pacific, and an increase in the static stability of the troposphere. This shift had several important implications. The whitening of the subsurface ocean temperature led to a breakdown of the relationship between WWV and ENSO, reducing the efficacy of WWV as a key predictor for ENSO and thus leading to a decrease in ENSO prediction skill. Another consequence of the higher ENSO frequency after 1999/2000 was that the forecasted peak of sea surface temperature anomaly often lagged that observed by several months, and the lag increased with the lead time. The ENSO regime shift may have altered ENSO influences on extratropical climate. Thus, the regime shift of ENSO in 1999/2000 as well as the model default may account for the higher false alarm and lower skill in predicting ENSO since 1999/2000.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Especially noteworthy is the multidecadal Atlantic warming that began in the late 1990s, because recent research suggests that it has influenced Indo-Pacific climate, the character of the ENSO cycle, and the hiatus in global surface warming. Discovery of these pantropical interactions provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate variability in the current climate and for refining projections of future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios.

Ekman's theory of wind-driven ocean currents on a rotating planet is central to our understanding of why surface currents are deflected to the right of the winds in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left of the winds in the Southern Hemisphere. The theory admits solutions for currents deflected in the opposite direction at periods shorter than the local inertial period, but Ekman did not mention these currents, and they have only rarely been observed. Here, we describe a prominent example of surface flow in the Bay of Bengal directed to the left of clockwise-rotating land breeze wind forcing using multiple years of data from a long-term deepwater surface moored buoy. We further refine Ekman's theory so as to better reconcile it with our own and previous measurements and then conclude by discussing the broad implications of this work for understanding wind-forced ocean circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thirty years (1993–2022) of concurrent satellite and in‐situ observations show a long‐term strengthening of the equatorial Pacific upper‐ocean circulation. Enhanced southeasterly and cross‐equatorial winds have caused an annual mean, basin‐wide acceleration of the equatorial westward near‐surface currents by ∼20% and an acceleration of poleward flow north (south) of the equator by ∼60% (∼20%). Additional moored velocity data reveal a deepening of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) core at 170°W and significant shoaling at 140°W and 110°W, but no significant changes in EUC core velocity. The strongest subsurface zonal velocity trends are observed above the EUC core in the central to eastern Pacific and occur before and after the seasonal maximum of EUC core velocity, causing enhanced upper‐ocean vertical current shear. Consistent with trends of the 20°C isotherm depth along the equatorial Pacific, a significant basin‐wide steepening of the equatorial thermocline is observed. Both the accelerating equatorial current system and the enhanced thermocline slope are consistent with an observed steepening of the zonal sea surface height gradient due to increased wind‐driven westward mass transport at the surface. During February‐March, both surface and subsurface currents along the equator show eastward velocity trends, in contrast to westward near‐surface current trends during the remainder of the year. The trend reversal is attributed to both a long‐term shift in equatorial Kelvin wave activity and to the impact of strong interannual variability due to El Niño Southern Oscillation and other modes of natural variability on decadal to multidecadal time scales. Plain Language Summary: Thirty years (1993–2022) of temporally overlapping satellite and in‐situ observations reveal a long‐term strengthening of the equatorial Pacific circulation in the upper 200 m. Both the west‐east (zonal) and south‐north (meridional) surface atmospheric winds typically observed in the tropical Pacific intensified. As a result, westward near‐surface currents in the central equatorial Pacific accelerated by ∼20%, while poleward currents accelerated by ∼60% (∼20%) north (south) of the equator. The strongest trends in zonal velocity are observed above the core of the Equatorial Undercurrent. While the subsurface current in the central and eastern Pacific shoaled by 12 m, it deepened in the western Pacific by 6 m, which aligns with trends of the 20°C isotherm depth. Both the accelerating equatorial currents and the steeper thermocline slope are consistent with a steepening west‐east slope of sea surface height due to increased westward water mass transport. Our results show that a shift in equatorial wave activity and strong interannual variability cause eastward velocity anomalies in the observed surface and subsurface current trends during February‐March. Between 1993 and 2022, long‐term equatorial circulation trends persist, but these trends are modified by natural events at both interannual timescales such as El Niño and La Niña events, and longer timescales. Key Points: 30 years of observations show a wind‐driven strengthening of equatorial Pacific surface zonal currents by ∼20% and poleward flow by ∼20%−60%The subsurface Equatorial Undercurrent intensified above its core depth, primarily in the central to eastern PacificLong‐term moored observations of subsurface velocity and temperature show a significant basin‐wide steepening of the equatorial thermocline [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO. Plain Language Summary: Earth's climate naturally fluctuates on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales, confounding the evaluation of climate models and the detection of trends linked to climate change. To tackle this challenge, scientists produce ensembles of simulations with identical external forcings (e.g., volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gas emissions) but plausibly different initial conditions. In this study, we analyze how these ensembles can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the simulated climate, to help guide the design of future ensembles and optimize the use of available computing resources. Key Points: Large ensembles of climate simulations are analyzed to characterize the sampling uncertainty of El Niño–Southern Oscillation statisticsAs expected, uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the number of simulated years provided by the ensembleA simple equation developed to predict the ensemble size required to limit this sampling uncertainty to within a given tolerance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal El Niño is an extreme situation of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with sea surface temperature warming confined in the far‐eastern equatorial Pacific. Some coastal El Niños evolve into a basin scale El Niño, and some don't, implying a diversity in ENSO evolutions after a coastal El Niño event. In this study, the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023 are selected to examine their subsequent evolution. Both coastal El Niños developed after a La Niña, with the former followed by a La Niña and the latter by a basin‐scale El Niño. The cold (warm) subsurface temperatures in 2017 (2023) were key factors leading to the divergent ENSO evolution. Convection over the western tropical Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies across the equatorial Pacific also contributed to the differences. Model predictions suggest that differences in ENSO evolution after a coastal El Niño are associated with differences in ENSO predictability. Plain Language Summary: Compared with the global impact of basin‐scale El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, coastal El Niño impacts are mainly focused along the South American coast. They are less studied, especially, in terms of temporal evolution and longer‐term development. Here, we examine the divergent evolution of ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific after the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023. This subsequent divergent evolution of these events was associated with both preceding subsurface ocean heat content levels, convection over the western tropical Pacific, and concurrent atmospheric circulation. Specifically, preceding subsurface ocean cooling combined with low‐level easterly wind anomalies led to the growth of La Niña after the coastal El Niño in 2017, while strong preceding subsurface ocean warming led to the growth of El Niño after the coastal El Niño in 2023. These differences in the evolution of tropical Pacific Ocean conditions after a coastal El Niño were associated with different levels of ENSO predictability. Key Points: The coastal El Niño in 2017 was followed by a La Niña, while the coastal El Niño in 2023 evolved into a basin‐scale El NiñoSubsurface ocean heat content levels, western Pacific convection, and off‐equatorial circulation differences affect El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolutionDivergent evolution of conditions in the tropical Pacific after a coastal El Niño is associated with differences in ENSO predictability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]