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Background: Black patients were severely under-represented in the clinical trials that led to the approval of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) for all cancers. The aim of this study was to characterise the effectiveness and safety of ICIs in Black patients., Methods: We did a retrospective cohort study of patients in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system's Corporate Data Warehouse containing electronic medical records for all patients who self-identified as non-Hispanic Black or African American (referred to as Black) or non-Hispanic White (referred to as White) and received PD-1, PD-L1, CTLA-4, or LAG-3 inhibitors between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2023. Effectiveness outcomes were overall survival, time to treatment discontinuation, and time to next treatment. The safety outcome was the frequency of immune-related adverse events; assessed among a random sample of 1000 Black patients and 1000 White patients, 892 pairs were matched on the basis of baseline characteristics using 1:1 exact matching without replacement. After manual chart review, patients who did not receive ICI therapy or who had inadequate follow-up were excluded. The adjusted effect of race on each effectiveness outcome was assessed in the whole ICI-treated cohort with propensity-weighted Cox regression with robust standard errors. Immune-related adverse events outcomes were analysed in the random matched sample with multivariable Cox regression, adjusting for baseline characteristics., Findings: We identified 26 398 patients, of whom 4943 (18·7%) patients were Black, 21 455 (81·3%) were White, 895 (3·4%) were female, 25 503 (96·6%) were male, 11 859 (45%) had non-small-cell lung cancer, and 26 045 (98·7%) received PD-1 or PD-L1 inhibitors. As of data cutoff (Aug 28, 2024), median follow-up was 40·3 months (95% CI 38·3-42·3) for Black patients and 43·9 months (43·0-45·1) for White patients. Compared with White patients, Black patients had longer time to treatment discontinuation (2-year unadjusted rates 10·7% [95% CI 9·8-11·7] for Black patients vs 8·6% [8·2-9·0] for White patients; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·91, 95% CI 0·87-0·95, p<0·0001), similar time to next treatment (23·5% [22·3-24·8] for Black patients vs 25·6% [25·0-26·2] for White patients; 1·00, 0·95-1·05, p=0·96), and slightly improved overall survival (36·5% [35·2-38·1] for Black patients vs 36·5% [35·8-37·1]; 0·95, 0·90-0·99, p=0·036). 1710 patients (n=862 Black and n=848 White) were analysed for safety outcomes. Compared with White patients, Black patients had a reduced risk of all-grade immune-related adverse events (unadjusted 2-year rate 33·1% [95% CI 28·9-37·1] vs 44·1% [95% CI 39·1-48·7]; adjusted HR 0·75, 95% CI 0·62-0·90, p=0·0026), immune-related adverse events requiring treatment with systemic steroids (0·61, 0·46-0·81, p=0·00051), and immune-related adverse events resulting in permanent ICI discontinuation (0·58, 0·44-0·78, p=0·00024). In exploratory analyses of irAE subtypes, a significant risk reduction in Black patients was found for colitis (0·46, 0·27-0·76, p=0·0026) and hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism (0·63, 0·44-0·90, p=0·011), and no significant differences were found for any other immune-related adverse event subtypes analysed. Similar results were found in analyses using a steroid-based definition of immune-related adverse events among the entire ICI-treated cohort., Interpretation: Compared with White patients, Black patients had similar ICI effectiveness and lower toxicities among those treated in the national VHA system, potentially reflecting an important difference in the therapeutic ratio (ratio of benefit to harm) of ICIs. Our findings of decreased toxicity among Black patients require further investigation to assess their generalisability., Funding: Million Veteran Program, Office of Research and Development, Veterans Health Administration and the LUNGevity foundation., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: The cumulative, health system-wide survival benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is unclear, particularly among real-world patients with limited life expectancies and among subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials. We sought to determine the health system-wide survival impact of ICIs., Methods: We identified all patients receiving PD-1/PD-L1 or CTLA-4 inhibitors from 2010 to 2023 in the national Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system (ICI cohort) and all patients who received non-ICI systemic therapy in the years before ICI approval (historical control). ICI and historical control cohorts were matched on multiple cancer-related prognostic factors, comorbidities, and demographics. The effect of ICI on overall survival was quantified with Cox regression incorporating matching weights. Cumulative life-years gained system-wide were calculated from the difference in adjusted 5-year restricted mean survival times., Results: There were 27,322 patients in the ICI cohort and 69,801 patients in the historical control cohort. Among ICI patients, the most common cancer types were NSCLC (46%) and melanoma (10%). ICI demonstrated a large OS benefit in most cancer types with heterogeneity across cancer types (NSCLC: adjusted HR [aHR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58, p < 0.001; urothelial: aHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83-1.01, p = 0.066). The relative benefit of ICI was stable across patient age, comorbidity, and self-reported race subgroups. Across VHA, 15,859 life-years gained were attributable to ICI within 5-years of treatment, with NSCLC contributing the most life-years gained., Conclusion: We demonstrated substantial increase in survival due to ICIs across a national health system, including in patient subgroups poorly represented on clinical trials., (© 2024 The Author(s). Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Severe malarial anemia (SMA, Hb < 6.0 g/dL) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission zones. This study explored the entire expressed human transcriptome in whole blood from 66 Kenyan children with non-SMA (Hb ≥ 6.0 g/dL, n = 41) and SMA (n = 25), focusing on host immune response networks. RNA-seq analysis revealed 6862 differentially expressed genes, with equally distributed up-and down-regulated genes, indicating a complex host immune response. Deconvolution analyses uncovered leukocytic immune profiles indicative of a diminished antigenic response, reduced immune priming, and polarization toward cellular repair in SMA. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis revealed that immune-regulated processes are central molecular distinctions between non-SMA and SMA. A top dysregulated immune response signaling network in SMA was the HSP60-HSP70-TLR2/4 signaling pathway, indicating altered pathogen recognition, innate immune activation, stress responses, and antigen recognition. Validation with high-throughput gene expression from a separate cohort of Kenyan children (n = 50) with varying severities of malarial anemia (n = 38 non-SMA and n = 12 SMA) confirmed the RNA-seq findings. Proteomic analyses in 35 children with matched transcript and protein abundance (n = 19 non-SMA and n = 16 SMA) confirmed dysregulation in the HSP60-HSP70-TLR2/4 signaling pathway. Additionally, glutamine transporter and glutamine synthetase genes were differentially expressed, indicating altered glutamine metabolism in SMA. This comprehensive analysis underscores complex immune dysregulation and novel pathogenic features in SMA.

This study on severe malarial anemia (SMA: Hb < 6.0 g/dL), a leading global cause of childhood morbidity and mortality, compares the entire expressed whole blood host transcriptome between Kenyan children (3-48 mos.) with non-SMA (Hb ≥ 6.0 g/dL, n = 39) and SMA (n = 18). Differential expression analyses reveal 1403 up-regulated and 279 down-regulated transcripts in SMA, signifying impairments in host inflammasome activation, cell death, and innate immune and cellular stress responses. Immune cell profiling shows decreased memory responses, antigen presentation, and immediate pathogen clearance, suggesting an immature/improperly regulated immune response in SMA. Module repertoire analysis of blood-specific gene signatures identifies up-regulation of erythroid genes, enhanced neutrophil activation, and impaired inflammatory responses in SMA. Enrichment analyses converge on disruptions in cellular homeostasis and regulatory pathways for the ubiquitin-proteasome system, autophagy, and heme metabolism. Pathway analyses highlight activation in response to hypoxic conditions [Hypoxia Inducible Factor (HIF)-1 target and Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) signaling] as a central theme in SMA. These signaling pathways are also top-ranking in protein abundance measures and a Ugandan SMA cohort with available transcriptomic data. Targeted RNA-Seq validation shows strong concordance with our entire expressed transcriptome data. These findings identify key molecular themes in SMA pathogenesis, offering potential targets for new malaria therapies., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of [Formula: see text] 4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics., (© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.)

Background: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a leading cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality in holoendemic transmission areas. Severe malarial anemia [SMA, hemoglobin (Hb) < 5.0 g/dL in children] is the most common clinical manifestation of severe malaria in such regions. Although innate immune response genes are known to influence the development of SMA, the role of natural killer (NK) cells in malaria pathogenesis remains largely undefined. As such, we examined the impact of genetic variation in the gene encoding a primary NK cell receptor, natural cytotoxicity-triggering receptor 3 (NCR3), on the occurrence of malaria and SMA episodes over time., Methods: Susceptibility to malaria, SMA, and all-cause mortality was determined in carriers of NCR3 genetic variants (i.e., rs2736191:C > G and rs11575837:C > T) and their haplotypes. The prospective observational study was conducted over a 36 mos. follow-up period in a cohort of children (n = 1,515, aged 1.9-40 mos.) residing in a holoendemic P. falciparum transmission region, Siaya, Kenya., Results: Poisson regression modeling, controlling for anemia-promoting covariates, revealed a significantly increased risk of malaria in carriers of the homozygous mutant allele genotype (TT) for rs11575837 after multiple test correction [Incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.540, 95% CI = 1.114-2.129, P = 0.009]. Increased risk of SMA was observed for rs2736191 in children who inherited the CG genotype (IRR = 1.269, 95% CI = 1.009-1.597, P = 0.041) and in the additive model (presence of 1 or 2 copies) (IRR = 1.198, 95% CI = 1.030-1.393, P = 0.019), but was not significant after multiple test correction. Modeling of the haplotypes revealed that the CC haplotype had a significant additive effect for protection against SMA (i.e., reduced risk for development of SMA) after multiple test correction (IRR = 0.823, 95% CI = 0.711-0.952, P = 0.009). Although increased susceptibility to SMA was present in carriers of the GC haplotype (IRR = 1.276, 95% CI = 1.030-1.581, P = 0.026) with an additive effect (IRR = 1.182, 95% CI = 1.018-1.372, P = 0.029), the results did not remain significant after multiple test correction. None of the NCR3 genotypes or haplotypes were associated with all-cause mortality., Conclusions: Variation in NCR3 alters susceptibility to malaria and SMA during the acquisition of naturally-acquired malarial immunity. These results highlight the importance of NK cells in the innate immune response to malaria., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Genetic factors play an important role in prostate cancer (PCa) susceptibility., Objective: To discover common genetic variants contributing to the risk of PCa in men of African ancestry., Design, Setting, and Participants: We conducted a meta-analysis of ten genome-wide association studies consisting of 19378 cases and 61620 controls of African ancestry., Outcome Measurements and Statistical Analysis: Common genotyped and imputed variants were tested for their association with PCa risk. Novel susceptibility loci were identified and incorporated into a multiancestry polygenic risk score (PRS). The PRS was evaluated for associations with PCa risk and disease aggressiveness., Results and Limitations: Nine novel susceptibility loci for PCa were identified, of which seven were only found or substantially more common in men of African ancestry, including an African-specific stop-gain variant in the prostate-specific gene anoctamin 7 (ANO7). A multiancestry PRS of 278 risk variants conferred strong associations with PCa risk in African ancestry studies (odds ratios [ORs] >3 and >5 for men in the top PRS decile and percentile, respectively). More importantly, compared with men in the 40-60% PRS category, men in the top PRS decile had a significantly higher risk of aggressive PCa (OR = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.10-1.38, p = 4.4 × 10 -4 )., Conclusions: This study demonstrates the importance of large-scale genetic studies in men of African ancestry for a better understanding of PCa susceptibility in this high-risk population and suggests a potential clinical utility of PRS in differentiating between the risks of developing aggressive and nonaggressive disease in men of African ancestry., Patient Summary: In this large genetic study in men of African ancestry, we discovered nine novel prostate cancer (PCa) risk variants. We also showed that a multiancestry polygenic risk score was effective in stratifying PCa risk, and was able to differentiate risk of aggressive and nonaggressive disease., (Copyright © 2023 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) relies on risk stratification. Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are proposed to improve ASCVD risk estimation., Objective: To determine whether genome-wide PRSs for coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute ischemic stroke improve ASCVD risk estimation with traditional clinical risk factors in an ancestrally diverse midlife population., Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a prognostic analysis of incident events in a retrospectively defined longitudinal cohort conducted from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2018. Included in the study were adults free of ASCVD and statin naive at baseline from the Million Veteran Program (MVP), a mega biobank with genetic, survey, and electronic health record data from a large US health care system. Data were analyzed from March 15, 2021, to January 5, 2023., Exposures: PRSs for CAD and ischemic stroke derived from cohorts of largely European descent and risk factors, including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes status., Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, ASCVD death, and composite ASCVD events., Results: A total of 79 151 participants (mean [SD] age, 57.8 [13.7] years; 68 503 male [86.5%]) were included in the study. The cohort included participants from the following harmonized genetic ancestry and race and ethnicity categories: 18 505 non-Hispanic Black (23.4%), 6785 Hispanic (8.6%), and 53 861 non-Hispanic White (68.0%) with a median (5th-95th percentile) follow-up of 4.3 (0.7-6.9) years. From 2011 to 2018, 3186 MIs (4.0%), 1933 ischemic strokes (2.4%), 867 ASCVD deaths (1.1%), and 5485 composite ASCVD events (6.9%) were observed. CAD PRS was associated with incident MI in non-Hispanic Black (hazard ratio [HR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19), Hispanic (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.09-1.46), and non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.29) participants. Stroke PRS was associated with incident stroke in non-Hispanic White participants (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08-1.21). A combined CAD plus stroke PRS was associated with ASCVD deaths among non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17) and non-Hispanic (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21) participants. The combined PRS was also associated with composite ASCVD across all ancestry groups but greater among non-Hispanic White (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.16-1.24) than non-Hispanic Black (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17) and Hispanic (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00-1.25) participants. Net reclassification improvement from adding PRS to a traditional risk model was modest for the intermediate risk group for composite CVD among men (5-year risk >3.75%, 0.38%; 95% CI, 0.07%-0.68%), among women, (6.79%; 95% CI, 3.01%-10.58%), for age older than 55 years (0.25%; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.47%), and for ages 40 to 55 years (1.61%; 95% CI, -0.07% to 3.30%)., Conclusions and Relevance: Study results suggest that PRSs derived predominantly in European samples were statistically significantly associated with ASCVD in the multiancestry midlife and older-age MVP cohort. Overall, modest improvement in discrimination metrics were observed with addition of PRSs to traditional risk factors with greater magnitude in women and younger age groups.

Suicidal ideation (SI) often precedes and predicts suicide attempt and death, is the most common suicidal phenotype and is over-represented in veterans. The genetic architecture of SI in the absence of suicide attempt (SA) is unknown, yet believed to have distinct and overlapping risk with other suicidal behaviors. We performed the first GWAS of SI without SA in the Million Veteran Program (MVP), identifying 99,814 SI cases from electronic health records without a history of SA or suicide death (SD) and 512,567 controls without SI, SA or SD. GWAS was performed separately in the four largest ancestry groups, controlling for sex, age and genetic substructure. Ancestry-specific results were combined via meta-analysis to identify pan-ancestry loci. Four genome-wide significant (GWS) loci were identified in the pan-ancestry meta-analysis with loci on chromosomes 6 and 9 associated with suicide attempt in an independent sample. Pan-ancestry gene-based analysis identified GWS associations with DRD2, DCC, FBXL19, BCL7C, CTF1, ANNK1, and EXD3. Gene-set analysis implicated synaptic and startle response pathways (q's<0.05). European ancestry (EA) analysis identified GWS loci on chromosomes 6 and 9, as well as GWS gene associations in EXD3, DRD2, and DCC. No other ancestry-specific GWS results were identified, underscoring the need to increase representation of diverse individuals. The genetic correlation of SI and SA within MVP was high (rG = 0.87; p = 1.09e-50), as well as with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD; rG = 0.78; p = 1.98e-95) and major depressive disorder (MDD; rG = 0.78; p = 8.33e-83). Conditional analysis on PTSD and MDD attenuated most pan-ancestry and EA GWS signals for SI without SA to nominal significance, with the exception of EXD3 which remained GWS. Our novel findings support a polygenic and complex architecture for SI without SA which is largely shared with SA and overlaps with psychiatric conditions frequently comorbid with suicidal behaviors., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Importance: Suicide is a leading cause of death; however, the molecular genetic basis of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (SITB) remains unknown., Objective: To identify novel, replicable genomic risk loci for SITB., Design, Setting, and Participants: This genome-wide association study included 633 778 US military veterans with and without SITB, as identified through electronic health records. GWAS was performed separately by ancestry, controlling for sex, age, and genetic substructure. Cross-ancestry risk loci were identified through meta-analysis. Study enrollment began in 2011 and is ongoing. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to August 2022., Main Outcome and Measures: SITB., Results: A total of 633 778 US military veterans were included in the analysis (57 152 [9%] female; 121 118 [19.1%] African ancestry, 8285 [1.3%] Asian ancestry, 452 767 [71.4%] European ancestry, and 51 608 [8.1%] Hispanic ancestry), including 121 211 individuals with SITB (19.1%). Meta-analysis identified more than 200 GWS (P < 5 × 10-8) cross-ancestry risk single-nucleotide variants for SITB concentrated in 7 regions on chromosomes 2, 6, 9, 11, 14, 16, and 18. Top single-nucleotide variants were largely intronic in nature; 5 were independently replicated in ISGC, including rs6557168 in ESR1, rs12808482 in DRD2, rs77641763 in EXD3, rs10671545 in DCC, and rs36006172 in TRAF3. Associations for FBXL19 and AC018880.2 were not replicated. Gene-based analyses implicated 24 additional GWS cross-ancestry risk genes, including FURIN, TSNARE1, and the NCAM1-TTC12-ANKK1-DRD2 gene cluster. Cross-ancestry enrichment analyses revealed significant enrichment for expression in brain and pituitary tissue, synapse and ubiquitination processes, amphetamine addiction, parathyroid hormone synthesis, axon guidance, and dopaminergic pathways. Seven other unique European ancestry-specific GWS loci were identified, 2 of which (POM121L2 and METTL15/LINC02758) were replicated. Two additional GWS ancestry-specific loci were identified within the African ancestry (PET112/GATB) and Hispanic ancestry (intergenic locus on chromosome 4) subsets, both of which were replicated. No GWS loci were identified within the Asian ancestry subset; however, significant enrichment was observed for axon guidance, cyclic adenosine monophosphate signaling, focal adhesion, glutamatergic synapse, and oxytocin signaling pathways across all ancestries. Within the European ancestry subset, genetic correlations (r > 0.75) were observed between the SITB phenotype and a suicide attempt-only phenotype, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Additionally, polygenic risk score analyses revealed that the Million Veteran Program polygenic risk score had nominally significant main effects in 2 independent samples of veterans of European and African ancestry., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this analysis may advance understanding of the molecular genetic basis of SITB and provide evidence for ESR1, DRD2, TRAF3, and DCC as cross-ancestry candidate risk genes. More work is needed to replicate these findings and to determine if and how these genes might impact clinical care.

Objectives: To evaluate the benefits of vaccination on the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 infections., Design, Setting and Participants: The US Department of Veterans Affairs has 130 medical centres. We created multivariate models from these data-339 772 patients with COVID-19-as of 30 September 2021., Outcome Measures: The primary outcome for all models was death within 60 days of the diagnosis. Logistic regression was used to derive adjusted ORs for vaccination and infection with Delta versus earlier variants. Models were adjusted for confounding factors, including demographics, comorbidity indices and novel parameters representing prior diagnoses, vital signs/baseline laboratory tests and outpatient treatments. Patients with a Delta infection were divided into eight cohorts based on the time from vaccination to diagnosis. A common model was used to estimate the odds of death associated with vaccination for each cohort relative to that of unvaccinated patients., Results: 9.1% of subjects were vaccinated. 21.5% had the Delta variant. 18 120 patients (5.33%) died within 60 days of their diagnoses. The adjusted OR for a Delta infection was 1.87±0.05, which corresponds to a relative risk (RR) of 1.78. The overall adjusted OR for prior vaccination was 0.280±0.011 corresponding to an RR of 0.291. Raw CFR rose steadily after 10-14 weeks. The OR for vaccination remained stable for 10-34 weeks., Conclusions: Our CFR model controls for the severity of confounding factors and priority of vaccination, rather than solely using the presence of comorbidities. Our results confirm that Delta was more lethal than earlier variants and that vaccination is an effective means of preventing death. After adjusting for major selection biases, we found no evidence that the benefits of vaccination on CFR declined over 34 weeks. We suggest that this model can be used to evaluate vaccines designed for emerging variants., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics [Formula: see text] over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved [Formula: see text] 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained [Formula: see text] 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Severe malarial anemia (SMA; Hb < 5.0 g/dl) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions such as western Kenya. Methods: We investigated the relationship between two novel complement component 5 (C5) missense mutations [rs17216529:C>T, p(Val145Ile) and rs17610:C>T, p(Ser1310Asn)] and longitudinal outcomes of malaria in a cohort of Kenyan children (under 60 mos, n = 1,546). Molecular modeling was used to investigate the impact of the amino acid transitions on the C5 protein structure. Results: Prediction of the wild-type and mutant C5 protein structures did not reveal major changes to the overall structure. However, based on the position of the variants, subtle differences could impact on the stability of C5b. The influence of the C5 genotypes/haplotypes on the number of malaria and SMA episodes over 36 months was determined by Poisson regression modeling. Genotypic analyses revealed that inheritance of the homozygous mutant (TT) for rs17216529:C>T enhanced the risk for both malaria (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 1.144, 95%CI: 1.059-1.236, p = 0.001) and SMA (IRR = 1.627, 95%CI: 1.201-2.204, p = 0.002). In the haplotypic model, carriers of TC had increased risk of malaria (IRR = 1.068, 95%CI: 1.017-1.122, p = 0.009), while carriers of both wild-type alleles (CC) were protected against SMA (IRR = 0.679, 95%CI: 0.542-0.850, p = 0.001). Conclusion: Collectively, these findings show that the selected C5 missense mutations influence the longitudinal risk of malaria and SMA in immune-naïve children exposed to holoendemic P. falciparum transmission through a mechanism that remains to be defined., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Raballah, Wilding, Anyona, Munde, Hurwitz, Onyango, Ayieko, Lambert, Schneider, Seidenberg, Ouma, McMahon, Cheng and Perkins.)

The predictive modeling literature for biomedical applications is dominated by biostatistical methods for survival analysis, and more recently some out of the box machine learning approaches. In this article, we show a presentation of a machine learning method appropriate for time-to-event modeling in the area of prostate cancer long-term disease progression. Using XGBoost adapted to long-term disease progression, we developed a predictive model for 118 788 patients with localized prostate cancer at diagnosis from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Our model accounted for patient censoring. Harrell's c-index for our model using only features available at the time of diagnosis was 0.757 95% confidence interval [0.756, 0.757]. Our results show that machine learning methods like XGBoost can be adapted to use accelerated failure time (AFT) with censoring to model long-term risk of disease progression. The long median survival justifies and requires censoring. Overall, we show that an existing machine learning approach can be used for AFT outcome modeling in prostate cancer, and more generally for other chronic diseases with long observation times., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association 2022.)

Plasmodium falciparum infections remain among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in holoendemic transmission areas. Located within region 5q31.1, the colony-stimulating factor 2 gene (CSF2) encodes granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), a hematopoietic growth factor that mediates host immune responses. Since the effect of CSF2 variation on malaria pathogenesis remains unreported, we investigated the impact of two genetic variants in the 5q31.1 gene region flanking CSF2:g-7032 G > A (rs168681:G > A) and CSF2:g.64544T > C (rs246835:T > C) on the rate and timing of malaria and severe malarial anemia (SMA, Hb < 5.0 g/dL) episodes over 36 months of follow-up. Children (n = 1654, aged 2-70 months) were recruited from a holoendemic P. falciparum transmission area of western Kenya. Decreased incidence rate ratio (IRR) for malaria was conferred by inheritance of the CSF2:g.64544 TC genotype (P = 0.0277) and CSF2 AC/GC diplotype (P = 0.0015). Increased IRR for malaria was observed in carriers of the CSF2 AT/GC diplotype (P = 0.0237), while the inheritance of the CSF2 AT haplotype increased the IRR for SMA (P = 0.0166). A model estimating the longitudinal risk of malaria showed decreased hazard rates among CSF2 AC haplotype carriers (P = 0.0045). Investigation of all-cause mortality revealed that inheritance of the GA genotype at CSF2:g-7032 increased the risk of mortality (P = 0.0315). Higher risk of SMA and all-cause mortality were observed in younger children (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0015), HIV-1(+) individuals (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001), and carriers of HbSS (P = 0.0342 and P = 0.0019). Results from this holoendemic P. falciparum area show that variation in gene region 5q31.1 influences susceptibility to malaria, SMA, and mortality, as does age, HIV-1 status, and inheritance of HbSS., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data is an important goal for precision medicine. Difficulty in applying Machine Learning (ML) methods, either predictive or unsupervised, stems in part from the heterogeneity and irregular sampling of EHR data. We present an unsupervised probabilistic model that captures nonlinear relationships between variables over continuous-time. This method works with arbitrary sampling patterns and captures the joint probability distribution between variable measurements and the time intervals between them. Inference algorithms are derived that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of future using under a trained model. As an example, we consider data from the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the areas of diabetes and depression. Likelihood ratio maps are produced showing the likelihood of risk for moderate-severe vs minimal depression as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9)., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Severe malarial anemia (SMA) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions. To gain enhanced understanding of predisposing factors for SMA, we explored the relationship between complement component 3 (C3) missense mutations [rs2230199 (2307C>G, Arg>Gly 102 ) and rs11569534 (34420G>A, Gly>Asp 1224 )], malaria, and SMA in a cohort of children (n = 1617 children) over 36 months of follow-up. Variants were selected based on their ability to impart amino acid substitutions that can alter the structure and function of C3. The 2307C>G mutation results in a basic to a polar residue change (Arg to Gly) at position 102 (β-chain) in the macroglobulin-1 (MG1) domain, while 34420G>A elicits a polar to acidic residue change (Gly to Asp) at position 1224 (α-chain) in the thioester-containing domain. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, longitudinal analyses revealed that inheritance of the homozygous mutant (GG) at 2307 enhanced the risk of SMA (RR = 2.142, 95%CI: 1.229-3.735, P  =   0.007). The haplotype containing both wild-type alleles (CG) decreased the incident risk ratio of both malaria (RR = 0.897, 95%CI: 0.828-0.972, P  =   0.008) and SMA (RR = 0.617, 95%CI: 0.448-0.848, P  =   0.003). Malaria incident risk ratio was also reduced in carriers of the GG (Gly 102 Gly 1224 ) haplotype (RR = 0.941, 95%CI: 0.888-0.997, P  =   0.040). Collectively, inheritance of the missense mutations in MG1 and thioester-containing domain influence the longitudinal risk of malaria and SMA in children exposed to intense Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

To identify pan-ancestry and ancestry-specific loci associated with attempting suicide among veterans, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of suicide attempts within a large, multi-ancestry cohort of U.S. veterans enrolled in the Million Veterans Program (MVP). Cases were defined as veterans with a documented history of suicide attempts in the electronic health record (EHR; N = 14,089) and controls were defined as veterans with no documented history of suicidal thoughts or behaviors in the EHR (N = 395,064). GWAS was performed separately in each ancestry group, controlling for sex, age and genetic substructure. Pan-ancestry risk loci were identified through meta-analysis and included two genome-wide significant loci on chromosomes 20 (p = 3.64 × 10 -9 ) and 1 (p = 3.69 × 10 -8 ). A strong pan-ancestry signal at the Dopamine Receptor D2 locus (p = 1.77 × 10 -7 ) was also identified and subsequently replicated in a large, independent international civilian cohort (p = 7.97 × 10 -4 ). Additionally, ancestry-specific genome-wide significant loci were also detected in African-Americans, European-Americans, Asian-Americans, and Hispanic-Americans. Pathway analyses suggested over-representation of many biological pathways with high clinical significance, including oxytocin signaling, glutamatergic synapse, cortisol synthesis and secretion, dopaminergic synapse, and circadian rhythm. These findings confirm that the genetic architecture underlying suicide attempt risk is complex and includes both pan-ancestry and ancestry-specific risk loci. Moreover, pathway analyses suggested many commonly impacted biological pathways that could inform development of improved therapeutics for suicide prevention., (© 2022. This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria is among the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. During a natural infection, ingestion of the malarial parasite product, hemozoin ( Pf Hz), by circulating phagocytic cells induces dysregulation in innate immunity and enhances malaria pathogenesis. Treatment of cultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from healthy, malaria-naïve donors with physiological concentrations of Pf Hz can serve as an in vitro model to investigate cellular processes. Although disruptions in host ubiquitination processes are central to the pathogenesis of many diseases, this system remains unexplored in malaria. As such, we investigated the impact of Pf Hz on the temporal expression patterns of 84 genes involved in ubiquitination processes. Donor PBMCs were cultured in the absence or presence of Pf Hz for 3-, 9-, and 24 h. Stimulation with Pf Hz for 3 h did not significantly alter gene expression. Incubation for 9 h, however, elicited significant changes for 6 genes: 4 were down-regulated ( FBXO4 , NEDD8 , UBE2E3, and UBE2W ) and 2 were up-regulated ( HERC5 and UBE2J1 ). Pf Hz treatment for 24 h significantly altered expression for 14 genes: 12 were down-regulated ( ANAPC11 , BRCC3 , CUL4B , FBXO4 , MIB1 , SKP2 , TP53 , UBA2 , UBA3 , UBE2G1 , UBE2G2 , and WWP1 ), while 2 were up-regulated ( UBE2J1 and UBE2Z ). Collectively, these results demonstrate that phagocytosis of Pf Hz by PBMCs elicits temporal changes in the transcriptional profiles of genes central to host ubiquitination processes. Results presented here suggest that disruptions in ubiquitination may be a previously undiscovered feature of malaria pathogenesis., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2022 The Authors.)

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic and catastrophic, worldwide health and economic impacts. The spike protein on the viral surface is responsible for viral entry into the host cell. The binding of spike protein to the host cell receptor ACE2 is the first step leading to fusion of the host and viral membranes. Despite the vast amount of structure data that has been generated for the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, many of the detailed structures of the spike protein in different stages of the fusion pathway are unknown, leaving a wealth of potential drug-target space unexplored. The atomic-scale structure of the complete S2 segment, as well as the complete fusion intermediate are also unknown and represent major gaps in our knowledge of the infectious pathway of SAR-CoV-2. The conformational changes of the spike protein during this process are similarly not well understood. Here we present structures of the spike protein at different stages of the fusion process. With the transitions being a necessary step before the receptor binding, we propose sites along the transition pathways as potential targets for drug development., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Background: Malaria remains one of the leading global causes of childhood morbidity and mortality. In holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions, such as western Kenya, severe malarial anemia [SMA, hemoglobin (Hb) < 6.0 g/dl] is the primary form of severe disease. Ubiquitination is essential for regulating intracellular processes involved in innate and adaptive immunity. Although dysregulation in ubiquitin molecular processes is central to the pathogenesis of multiple human diseases, the expression patterns of ubiquitination genes in SMA remain unexplored. Methods: To examine the role of the ubiquitination processes in pathogenesis of SMA, differential gene expression profiles were determined in Kenyan children ( n = 44, aged <48 mos) with either mild malarial anemia (M l MA; Hb ≥9.0 g/dl; n = 23) or SMA (Hb <6.0 g/dl; n = 21) using the Qiagen Human Ubiquitination Pathway RT 2 Profiler PCR Array containing a set of 84 human ubiquitination genes. Results: In children with SMA, 10 genes were down-regulated ( BRCC3 , FBXO3 , MARCH5 , RFWD2 , SMURF2 , UBA6 , UBE2A , UBE2D1 , UBE2L3 , UBR1 ), and five genes were up-regulated ( MDM2 , PARK2 , STUB1 , UBE2E3 , UBE2M ). Enrichment analyses revealed Ubiquitin-Proteasomal Proteolysis as the top disrupted process, along with altered sub-networks involved in proteasomal, protein, and ubiquitin-dependent catabolic processes. Conclusion: Collectively, these novel results show that protein coding genes of the ubiquitination processes are involved in the pathogenesis of SMA., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Anyona, Raballah, Cheng, Hurwitz, Ndege, Munde, Otieno, Seidenberg, Schneider, Lambert, McMahon, Ouma and Perkins.)

Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) is a major global health concern that often causes bloodstream infections in areas of the world affected by malnutrition and comorbidities such as HIV and malaria. Developing a strategy to control the emergence and spread of highly invasive and antimicrobial resistant NTS isolates requires a comprehensive analysis of epidemiological factors and molecular pathogenesis. Here, we characterize 11 NTS isolates that caused bloodstream infections in pediatric patients in Siaya, Kenya from 2003-2010. Nine isolates were identified as S. Typhimurium sequence type 313 while the other two were S. Enteritidis. Comprehensive genotypic and phenotypic analyses were performed to compare these isolates to those previously identified in sub-Saharan Africa. We identified a S. Typhimurium isolate referred to as UGA14 that displayed novel plasmid, pseudogene and resistance features as compared to other isolates reported from Africa. Notably, UGA14 is able to ferment both lactose and sucrose due to the acquisition of insertion elements on the pKST313 plasmid. These findings show for the first time the co-evolution of plasmid-mediated lactose and sucrose metabolism along with cephalosporin resistance in NTS further elucidating the evolutionary mechanisms of invasive NTS phenotypes. These results further support the use of combined genomic and phenotypic approaches to detect and characterize atypical NTS isolates in order to advance biosurveillance efforts that inform countermeasures aimed at controlling invasive and antimicrobial resistant NTS., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

We develop and analyze a stage-progression compartmental model to study the emerging invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS bloodstream infections are often fatal, and the diverse and non-specific clinical features of iNTS make it difficult to diagnose. We focus our study on identifying approaches that can reduce the incidence of new infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, transmission and mortality are correlated with the ongoing HIV epidemic and severe malnutrition. We use our model to quantify the impact that increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infected adults and reducing malnutrition in children would have on mortality from iNTS in the population. We consider immunocompromised subpopulations in the region with major risk factors for mortality, such as malaria and malnutrition among children and HIV infection and ART coverage in both children and adults. We parameterize the progression rates between infection stages using the branching probabilities and estimated time spent at each stage. We interpret the basic reproduction number R 0 as the total contribution from an infinite infection loop produced by the asymptomatic carriers in the infection chain. The results indicate that the asymptomatic HIV+ adults without ART serve as the driving force of infection for the iNTS epidemic. We conclude that the worst disease outcome is among the pediatric population, which has the highest infection rates and death counts. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the most effective strategies to reduce iNTS mortality in the studied population are to improve the ART coverage among high-risk HIV+ adults and reduce malnutrition among children.

Seasonal flu is an acute respiratory disease that exacts a massive toll on human populations, healthcare systems and economies. The disease is caused by an enveloped Influenza virus containing eight ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complexes. Each RNP incorporates multiple copies of nucleoprotein (NP), a fragment of the viral genome (vRNA), and a viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (POL), and is responsible for packaging the viral genome and performing critical functions including replication and transcription. A complete model of an Influenza RNP in atomic detail can elucidate the structural basis for viral genome functions, and identify potential targets for viral therapeutics. In this work we construct a model of a complete Influenza A RNP complex in atomic detail using multiple sources of structural and sequence information and a series of homology-modeling techniques, including a motif-matching fragment assembly method. Our final model provides a rationale for experimentally-observed changes to viral polymerase activity in numerous mutational assays. Further, our model reveals specific interactions between the three primary structural components of the RNP, including potential targets for blocking POL-binding to the NP-vRNA complex. The methods developed in this work open the possibility of elucidating other functionally-relevant atomic-scale interactions in additional RNP structures and other biomolecular complexes.

Viral proteins evade host immune function by molecular mimicry, often achieved by short linear motifs (SLiMs) of three to ten consecutive amino acids (AAs). Motif mimicry tolerates mutations, evolves quickly to modify interactions with the host, and enables modular interactions with protein complexes. Host cells cannot easily coordinate changes to conserved motif recognition and binding interfaces under selective pressure to maintain critical signaling pathways. SLiMs offer potential for use in synthetic biology, such as better immunogens and therapies, but may also present biosecurity challenges. We survey viral uses of SLiMs to mimic host proteins, and information resources available for motif discovery. As the number of examples continues to grow, knowledge management tools are essential to help organize and compare new findings., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Cyclooxygenase-2 [(COX-2) or prostaglandin endoperoxide H2 synthase-2 (PTGS-2)] induces the production of prostaglandins as part of the host-immune response to infections. Although a number of studies have demonstrated the effects of COX-2 promoter variants on autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, their role in malaria remains undefined. As such, we investigated the relationship between four COX-2 promoter variants (COX-2 -512 C > T, -608 T > C, -765 G > C, and -1195 A > G) and susceptibility to malaria and severe malarial anemia (SMA) upon enrollment and longitudinally over a 36-month follow-up period. All-cause mortality was also explored. The investigation was carried out in children (n = 1081, age; 2-70 months) residing in a holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission region of western Kenya. At enrollment, genotypes/haplotypes (controlling for anemia-promoting covariates) did not reveal any strong effects on susceptibility to either malaria or SMA. Longitudinal analyses showed decreased malaria episodes in children who inherited the -608 CC mutant allele (RR = 0.746, P = 1.811 × 10 -4 ) and -512C/-608T/-765G/-1195G (CTGG) haplotype (RR = 0.856, P = 0.011), and increased risk in TTCA haplotype carriers (RR = 1.115, P = 0.026). Over the follow-up period, inheritance of the rare TTCG haplotype was associated with enhanced susceptibility to both malaria (RR = 1.608, P = 0.016) and SMA (RR = 5.714, P = 0.004), while carriage of the rare TTGG haplotype increased the risk of malaria (RR = 1.755, P = 0.007), SMA (RR = 8.706, P = 3.97 × 10 -4 ), and all-cause mortality (HR = 110.000, P = 0.001). Collectively, these results show that SNP variations in the COX-2 promoter, and their inherited combinations, are associated with the longitudinal risk of malaria, SMA, and all-cause mortality among children living in a high transmission area for P. falciparum.

Around the world, scavenging birds such as vultures and condors have been experiencing drastic population declines. Scavenging birds have a distinct digestive process to deal with higher amounts of bacteria in their primary diet of carcasses in varying levels of decay. These observations motivate us to present an analysis of captive and healthy California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) microbiomes to characterize a population raised together under similar conditions. Shotgun metagenomic DNA sequences were analyzed from fecal and cloacal samples of captive birds. Classification of shotgun DNA sequence data with peptide signatures using the Sequedex package provided both phylogenetic and functional profiles, as well as individually annotated reads for targeted confirmatory analysis. We observed bacterial species previously associated with birds and gut microbiomes, including both virulent and opportunistic pathogens such as Clostridium perfringens, Propionibacterium acnes, Shigella flexneri, and Fusobacterium mortiferum, common flora such as Lactobacillus johnsonii, Lactobacillus ruminus, and Bacteroides vulgatus, and mucosal microbes such as Delftia acidovorans, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, and Corynebacterium falsnii. Classification using shotgun metagenomic reads from phylogenetic marker genes was consistent with, and more specific than, analysis based on 16S rDNA data. Classification of samples based on either phylogenetic or functional profiles of genomic fragments differentiated three types of samples: fecal, mature cloacal and immature cloacal, with immature birds having approximately 40% higher diversity of microbes., Competing Interests: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper. All work was completed and funded at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Two authors (MV and JB) have since left Los Alamos National Laboratory and their new commercial affiliations and this does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Background: Severe malarial anaemia (SMA) is a leading cause of childhood mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum regions., Methods: To gain an improved understanding of SMA pathogenesis, whole genome and transcriptome profiling was performed in Kenyan children (n=144, 3-36months) with discrete non-SMA and SMA phenotypes. Leukocyte associated immunoglobulin like receptor 1 (LAIR1) emerged as a predictor of susceptibility to SMA (P<1×10 -2 , OR: 0.44-1.37), and was suppressed in severe disease (-1.69-fold, P=0.004). To extend these findings, the relationship between LAIR1 polymorphisms [rs6509867 (16231C>A); rs2287827 (18835G>A)] and clinical outcomes were investigated in individuals (n=1512, <5years) at enrolment and during a 36-month longitudinal follow-up., Findings: Inheritance of the 16,231 recessive genotype (AA) increased susceptibility to SMA at enrolment (OR=1.903, 95%CI: 1.252-2.891, P=0.003), and longitudinally (RR=1.527, 95%CI: 1.119-2.083, P=0.008). Carriage of the 18,835 GA genotype protected against SMA cross-sectionally (OR=0.672, 95%CI: 0.480-0.9439, P=0.020). Haplotype carriage (C16231A/G18835A) also altered cross-sectional susceptibility to SMA: CG (OR=0.717, 95%CI: 0.527-0.9675, P=0.034), CA (OR=0.745, 95%CI: 0.536-1.036, P=0.080), and AG (OR=1.641, 95%CI: 1.160-2.321, P=0.005). Longitudinally, CA carriage was protective against SMA (RR=0.715, 95%CI: 0.554-0.923, P=0.010), while AG carriage had an additive effect on enhanced SMA risk (RR=1.283, 95%CI: 1.057-1.557, P=0.011). Variants that protected against SMA had elevated LAIR1 transcripts, while those with enhanced risk had lower expression (P<0.05). Inheritance of 18,835 GA reduced all-cause mortality by 44.8% (HR=0.552, 95%CI: 0.329-0.925, P=0.024), while AG haplotype carriage increased susceptibility by 68% (HR=1.680, 95%CI: 1.020-2.770, P=0.040)., Interpretation: These findings suggest LAIR1 is important for modulating susceptibility to SMA and all-cause childhood mortality., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Bacteremia is a leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa where childhood mortality rates are the highest in the world. The early diagnosis of bacteremia and initiation of treatment saves lives, especially in high-disease burden areas. However, diagnosing bacteremia is challenging for clinicians, especially in children presenting with co-infections such as malaria and HIV. There is an urgent need for a rapid method for detecting bacteremia in pediatric patients with co-morbidities to inform treatment. In this manuscript, we have developed and clinically validated a novel method for the direct detection of amphiphilic pathogen biomarkers indicative of bacteremia, directly in aqueous blood, by mimicking innate immune recognition. Specifically, we have exploited the interaction of amphiphilic pathogen biomarkers such as lipopolysaccharides (LPS) from Gram-negative bacteria and lipoteichoic acids (LTA) from Gram-positive bacteria with host lipoprotein carriers in blood, in order to develop two tailored assays - lipoprotein capture and membrane insertion - for their direct detection. Our assays demonstrate a sensitivity of detection of 4 ng/mL for LPS and 2 ng/mL for LTA using a waveguide-based optical biosensor platform that was developed at LANL. In this manuscript, we also demonstrate the application of these methods for the detection of LPS in serum from pediatric patients with invasive Salmonella Typhimurium bacteremia (n = 7) and those with Staphylococcal bacteremia (n = 7) with 100% correlation with confirmatory culture. Taken together, these results demonstrate the significance of biochemistry in both our understanding of host-pathogen biology, and development of assay methodology, as well as demonstrate a potential new approach for the rapid, sensitive and accurate diagnosis of bacteremia at the point of need.

Marine cone snails are carnivorous gastropods that use peptide toxins called conopeptides both as a defense mechanism and as a means to immobilize and kill their prey. These peptide toxins exhibit a large chemical diversity that enables exquisite specificity and potency for target receptor proteins. This diversity arises in terms of variations both in amino acid sequence and length, and in posttranslational modifications, particularly the formation of multiple disulfide linkages. Most of the functionally characterized conopeptides target ion channels of animal nervous systems, which has led to research on their therapeutic applications. Many facets of the underlying molecular mechanisms responsible for the specificity and virulence of conopeptides, however, remain poorly understood. In this review, we will explore the chemical diversity of conopeptides from a computational perspective. First, we discuss current approaches used for classifying conopeptides. Next, we review different computational strategies that have been applied to understanding and predicting their structure and function, from machine learning techniques for predictive classification to docking studies and molecular dynamics simulations for molecular-level understanding. We then review recent novel computational approaches for rapid high-throughput screening and chemical design of conopeptides for particular applications. We close with an assessment of the state of the field, emphasizing important questions for future lines of inquiry.

A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.

Background: Emerging pathogens such as Zika, chikungunya, Ebola, and dengue viruses are serious threats to national and global health security. Accurate forecasts of emerging epidemics and their severity are critical to minimizing subsequent mortality, morbidity, and economic loss. The recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus to the Americas underscores the need for better methods for disease surveillance and forecasting., Methods: To explore the suitability of current approaches to forecasting emerging diseases, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) launched the 2014-2015 DARPA Chikungunya Challenge to forecast the number of cases and spread of chikungunya disease in the Americas. Challenge participants (n=38 during final evaluation) provided predictions of chikungunya epidemics across the Americas for a six-month period, from September 1, 2014 to February 16, 2015, to be evaluated by comparison with incidence data reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). This manuscript presents an overview of the challenge and a summary of the approaches used by the winners., Results: Participant submissions were evaluated by a team of non-competing government subject matter experts based on numerical accuracy and methodology. Although this manuscript does not include in-depth analyses of the results, cursory analyses suggest that simpler models appear to outperform more complex approaches that included, for example, demographic information and transportation dynamics, due to the reporting biases, which can be implicitly captured in statistical models. Mosquito-dynamics, population specific information, and dengue-specific information correlated best with prediction accuracy., Conclusion: We conclude that with careful consideration and understanding of the relative advantages and disadvantages of particular methods, implementation of an effective prediction system is feasible. However, there is a need to improve the quality of the data in order to more accurately predict the course of epidemics.

Bacteremia and malaria coinfection is a common and life-threatening condition in children residing in sub-Saharan Africa. We previously showed that coinfection with Gram negative (G[-]) enteric Bacilli and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf[+]) was associated with reduced high-density parasitemia (HDP, >10,000 parasites/μL), enhanced respiratory distress, and severe anemia. Since inflammatory mediators are largely unexplored in such coinfections, circulating cytokines were determined in four groups of children (n = 206, aged <3 yrs): healthy; Pf[+] alone; G[-] coinfected; and G[+] coinfected. Staphylococcus aureus and non-Typhi Salmonella were the most frequently isolated G[+] and G[-] organisms, respectively. Coinfected children, particularly those with G[-] pathogens, had lower parasite burden (peripheral and geometric mean parasitemia and HDP). In addition, both coinfected groups had increased IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-12, IL-15, IL-17, IFN-γ, and IFN-α and decreased TNF-α relative to malaria alone. Children with G[-] coinfection had higher IL-1β and IL-1Ra and lower IL-10 than the Pf[+] group and higher IFN-γ than the G[+] group. To determine how the immune response to malaria regulates parasitemia, cytokine production was investigated with a multiple mediation model. Cytokines with the greatest mediational impact on parasitemia were IL-4, IL-10, IL-12, and IFN-γ. Results here suggest that enhanced immune activation, especially in G[-] coinfected children, acts to reduce malaria parasite burden.

Members of the cyanobacterial genus Cyanothece exhibit considerable variation in physiological and biochemical characteristics. The comparative assessment of the genomes and the proteomes has the potential to provide insights on differences among Cyanothece strains. By applying Sequedex, an annotation-independent method for ascribing gene functions, we confirmed significant species-specific differences of functional genes in different Cyanothece strains, particularly in Cyanothece PCC7425. Using a shotgun proteomics approach based on prefractionation and tandem mass spectrometry, we detected ∼28-48% of the theoretical Cyanothece proteome, depending on the strain. The expression of a total of 642 orthologous proteins was observed in all five Cyanothece strains. These shared orthologous proteins showed considerable correlations in their abundances across different Cyanothece strains. Functional classification indicated that the majority of proteins involved in central metabolic functions such as amino acid, carbohydrate, protein, and RNA metabolism, photosynthesis, respiration, and stress responses were observed to a greater extent in the core proteome, whereas proteins involved in membrane transport, iron acquisition, regulatory functions, flagellar motility, and chemotaxis were observed to a greater extent in the unique proteome. Considerable differences were evident across different Cyanothece strains. Notably, the analysis of Cyanothece PCC7425, which showed the highest number of unique proteins (682), provided direct evidence of evolutionary differences in this strain. We conclude that Cyanothece PCC7425 diverged significantly from the other Cyanothece strains or evolved from a different lineage.

We present and characterize a multi-host epidemic model of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus in East Africa with geographic spread on a network, rule-based mitigation measures, and mosquito infection and population dynamics. Susceptible populations are depleted by disease and vaccination and are replenished with the birth of new animals. We observe that the severity of the epidemics is strongly correlated with the duration of the rainy season and that even severe epidemics are abruptly terminated when the rain stops. Because naturally acquired herd immunity is established, total mortality across 25 years is relatively insensitive to many mitigation approaches. Strong reductions in cattle mortality are expected, however, with sufficient reduction in population densities of either vectors or susceptible (ie. unvaccinated) hosts. A better understanding of RVF epidemiology would result from serology surveys to quantify the importance of herd immunity in epidemic control, and sequencing of virus from representative animals to quantify the realative importance of transportation and local reservoirs in nucleating yearly epidemics. Our results suggest that an effective multi-layered mitigation strategy would include vector control, movement control, and vaccination of young animals yearly, even in the absence of expected rainfall.

Background: Classification is difficult for shotgun metagenomics data from environments such as soils, where the diversity of sequences is high and where reference sequences from close relatives may not exist. Approaches based on sequence-similarity scores must deal with the confounding effects that inheritance and functional pressures exert on the relation between scores and phylogenetic distance, while approaches based on sequence alignment and tree-building are typically limited to a small fraction of gene families. We describe an approach based on finding one or more exact matches between a read and a precomputed set of peptide 10-mers., Results: At even the largest phylogenetic distances, thousands of 10-mer peptide exact matches can be found between pairs of bacterial genomes. Genes that share one or more peptide 10-mers typically have high reciprocal BLAST scores. Among a set of 403 representative bacterial genomes, some 20 million 10-mer peptides were found to be shared. We assign each of these peptides as a signature of a particular node in a phylogenetic reference tree based on the RNA polymerase genes. We classify the phylogeny of a genomic fragment (e.g., read) at the most specific node on the reference tree that is consistent with the phylogeny of observed signature peptides it contains. Using both synthetic data from four newly-sequenced soil-bacterium genomes and ten real soil metagenomics data sets, we demonstrate a sensitivity and specificity comparable to that of the MEGAN metagenomics analysis package using BLASTX against the NR database. Phylogenetic and functional similarity metrics applied to real metagenomics data indicates a signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 400 for distinguishing among environments. Our method assigns ~6.6 Gbp/hr on a single CPU, compared with 25 kbp/hr for methods based on BLASTX against the NR database., Conclusions: Classification by exact matching against a precomputed list of signature peptides provides comparable results to existing techniques for reads longer than about 300 bp and does not degrade severely with shorter reads. Orders of magnitude faster than existing methods, the approach is suitable now for inclusion in analysis pipelines and appears to be extensible in several different directions.

Background: There exist > 78,000 proteins and/or nucleic acids structures that were determined experimentally. Only a small portion of these structures corresponds to those of protein complexes. While homology modeling is able to exploit knowledge-based potentials of side-chain rotomers and backbone motifs to infer structures for new proteins, no such general method exists to extend our understanding of protein interaction motifs to novel protein complexes., Results: We use a Motif Binding Geometries (MBG) approach, to infer the structure of a protein complex from the database of complexes of homologous proteins taken from other contexts (such as the helix-turn-helix motif binding double stranded DNA), and demonstrate its utility on one of the more important regulatory complexes in biology, that of the RNA polymerase initiating transcription under conditions of phosphate starvation. The modeled PhoB/RNAP/σ-factor/DNA complex is stereo-chemically reasonable, has sufficient interfacial Solvent Excluded Surface Areas (SESAs) to provide adequate binding strength, is physically meaningful for transcription regulation, and is consistent with a variety of known experimental constraints., Conclusions: Based on a straightforward and easy to comprehend concept, "proteins and protein domains that fold similarly could interact similarly", a structural model of the PhoB dimer in the transcription initiation complex has been developed. This approach could be extended to enable structural modeling and prediction of other bio-molecular complexes. Just as models of individual proteins provide insight into molecular recognition, catalytic mechanism, and substrate specificity, models of protein complexes will provide understanding into the combinatorial rules of cellular regulation and signaling.

Background: A stochastic discrete event simulation model was developed to assess the effectiveness of passenger screening for Pandemic Influenza (PI) at U.S. airport foreign entry., Methods: International passengers arriving at 18 U.S. airports from Asia, Europe, South America, and Canada were assigned to one of three states: not infected, infected with PI, infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers passed through layered screening then exited the model. 80% screening effectiveness was assumed for symptomatic passengers; 6% asymptomatic passengers., Results: In the first 100 days of a global pandemic, U.S. airport screening would evaluate over 17 M passengers with 800 K secondary screenings. 11,570 PI infected passengers (majority asymptomatic) would enter the U.S. undetected from all 18 airports. Foreign airport departure screening significantly decreased the false negative (infected/undetected) passengers. U.S. attack rates: no screening (26.9%-30.9%); screening (26.4%-30.6%); however airport screening results in 800 K-1.8 M less U.S. PI cases; 16 K-35 K less deaths (2% fatality rate). Antiviral medications for travel contact prophylaxis (10 contacts/PI passenger) were high - 8.8M. False positives from all 18 airports: 100-200/day., Conclusions: Foreign shore exit screening greatly reduces numbers of PI infected passengers. U.S. airport screening identifies 50% infected individuals; efficacy is limited by the asymptomatic PI infected. Screening will not significantly delay arrival of PI via international air transport, but will reduce the rate of new US cases and subsequent deaths.

Protein functions require conformational motions. We show here that the dominant conformational motions are slaved by the hydration shell and the bulk solvent. The protein contributes the structure necessary for function. We formulate a model that is based on experiments, insights from the physics of glass-forming liquids, and the concepts of a hierarchically organized energy landscape. To explore the effect of external fluctuations on protein dynamics, we measure the fluctuations in the bulk solvent and the hydration shell with broadband dielectric spectroscopy and compare them with internal fluctuations measured with the Mössbauer effect and neutron scattering. The result is clear. Large-scale protein motions are slaved to the fluctuations in the bulk solvent. They are controlled by the solvent viscosity, and are absent in a solid environment. Internal protein motions are slaved to the beta fluctuations of the hydration shell, are controlled by hydration, and are absent in a dehydrated protein. The model quantitatively predicts the rapid increase of the mean-square displacement above approximately 200 K, shows that the external beta fluctuations determine the temperature- and time-dependence of the passage of carbon monoxide through myoglobin, and explains the nonexponential time dependence of the protein relaxation after photodissociation.

The accurate identification of HIV-specific T cell responses is important for determining the relationship between immune response, viral control, and disease progression. HIV-specific immune responses are usually measured using peptide sets based on consensus sequences, which frequently miss responses to regions where test set and infecting virus differ. In this study, we report the design of a peptide test set with significantly increased coverage of HIV sequence diversity by including alternative amino acids at variable positions during the peptide synthesis step. In an IFN-gamma ELISpot assay, these "toggled" peptides detected HIV-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell responses of significantly higher breadth and magnitude than matched consensus peptides. The observed increases were explained by a closer match of the toggled peptides to the autologous viral sequence. Toggled peptides therefore afford a cost-effective and significantly more complete view of the host immune response to HIV and are directly applicable to other variable pathogens.

Proteins, the workhorses of living systems, are constructed from chains of amino acids, which are synthesized in the cell based on the instructions of the genetic code and then folded into working proteins. The time for folding varies from microseconds to hours. What controls the folding rate is hotly debated. We postulate here that folding has the same temperature dependence as the alpha-fluctuations in the bulk solvent but is much slower. We call this behavior slaving. Slaving has been observed in folded proteins: Large-scale protein motions follow the solvent fluctuations with rate coefficient k(alpha) but can be slower by a large factor. Slowing occurs because large-scale motions proceed in many small steps, each determined by k(alpha). If conformational motions of folded proteins are slaved, so a fortiori must be the motions during folding. The unfolded protein makes a Brownian walk in the conformational space to the folded structure, with each step controlled by k(alpha). Because the number of conformational substates in the unfolded protein is extremely large, the folding rate coefficient, k(f), is much smaller than k(alpha). The slaving model implies that the activation enthalpy of folding is dominated by the solvent, whereas the number of steps n(f) = k(alpha)/k(f) is controlled by the number of accessible substates in the unfolded protein and the solvent. Proteins, however, undergo not only alpha- but also beta-fluctuations. These additional fluctuations are local protein motions that are essentially independent of the bulk solvent fluctuations and may be relevant at late stages of folding.

Atomic motions and energetics for a phosphate transfer reaction catalyzed by the cAMP-dependent protein kinase are calculated by plane-wave density functional theory, starting from structures of proteins crystallized in both the reactant conformation (RC) and the transition-state conformation (TC). In TC, we calculate that the reactants and products are nearly isoenergetic with a 20-kJ/mol barrier, whereas phosphate transfer is unfavorable by 120 kJ/mol in the RC, with an even higher barrier. With the protein in TC, the motions involved in reaction are small, with only P(gamma) and the catalytic proton moving >0.5 A. Examination of the structures reveals that in the RC the active site cleft is not completely closed and there is insufficient space for the phosphorylated serine residue in the product state. Together, these observations imply that the phosphate transfer reaction occurs rapidly and reversibly in a particular conformation of the protein, and that the reaction can be gated by changes of a few tenths of an angstrom in the catalytic site.

The concept that proteins exist in numerous different conformations or conformational substates, described by an energy landscape, is now accepted, but the dynamics is incompletely explored. We have previously shown that large-scale protein motions, such as the exit of a ligand from the protein interior, follow the dielectric fluctuations in the bulk solvent. Here, we demonstrate, by using mean-square displacements (msd) from Mossbauer and neutron-scattering experiments, that fluctuations in the hydration shell control fast fluctuations in the protein. We call the first type solvent-slaved or alpha-fluctuations and the second type hydration-shell-coupled or beta-fluctuations. Solvent-slaved motions are similar to the alpha-fluctuations in glasses. Their temperature dependence can be approximated by a Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher relation and they are absent in a solid environment. Hydration-shell-coupled fluctuations are similar to the beta-relaxation in glasses. They can be approximated by a Ferry or an Arrhenius relation, are much reduced or absent in dehydrated proteins, and occur in hydrated proteins even if embedded in a solid. They can be responsible for internal processes such as the migration of ligands within myoglobin. The existence of two functionally important fluctuations in proteins, one slaved to bulk motions and the other coupled to hydration-shell fluctuations, implies that the environment can control protein functions through different avenues and that no real protein transition occurs at approximately 200 K. The large number of conformational substates is essential; proteins cannot function without this reservoir of entropy, which resides mainly in the hydration shell.

FTIR difference spectroscopy is used to reveal changes in the internal structure and amino acid protonation states of bovine cytochrome c oxidase (CcO) that occur upon photolysis of the CO adduct of the two-electron reduced (mixed valence, MV) and four-electron reduced (fully reduced, FR) forms of the enzyme. FTIR difference spectra were obtained in D(2)O (pH 6-9.3) between the MV-CO adduct (heme a(3) and Cu(B) reduced; heme a and Cu(A) oxidized) and a photostationary state in which the MV-CO enzyme is photodissociated under constant illumination. In the photostationary state, part of the enzyme population has heme a(3) oxidized and heme a reduced. In MV-CO, the frequency of the stretch mode of CO bound to ferrous heme a(3) decreases from 1965.3 cm(-1) at pH*

Protein motions are essential for function. Comparing protein processes with the dielectric fluctuations of the surrounding solvent shows that they fall into two classes: nonslaved and slaved. Nonslaved processes are independent of the solvent motions; their rates are determined by the protein conformation and vibrational dynamics. Slaved processes are tightly coupled to the solvent; their rates have approximately the same temperature dependence as the rate of the solvent fluctuations, but they are smaller. Because the temperature dependence is determined by the activation enthalpy, we propose that the solvent is responsible for the activation enthalpy, whereas the protein and the hydration shell control the activation entropy through the energy landscape. Bond formation is the prototype of nonslaved processes; opening and closing of channels are quintessential slaved motions. The prevalence of slaved motions highlights the importance of the environment in cells and membranes for the function of proteins.