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Energy security is a top priority for governments, companies, and households because energy systems and the critical functions that they support are threatened by disruptions from wars, pandemics, climate change, and other shocks (1). More often than not, governments rely on policies focused on energy supply to enhance energy security while generally ignoring demand-side possibilities. Further, the indicators traditionally used to measure energy security are also tilted toward the supply side; this fails to capture the full spectrum of vulnerability to energy crises. Energy security assessments need to reflect the wider benefits of security-related interventions more accurately. To that end, we develop a systematic approach to measuring the energy security impacts of policy interventions that explicitly considers energy demand (buildings, transport, and industry). We determine that demand-side actions outperform conventional supply-side approaches at making countries more resilient.

01 april 2023, Item does not contain fulltext, INTRODUCTION: Neonatal sepsis is a leading cause of infant mortality worldwide with non-specific and varied presentation. We aimed to catalogue the current definitions of neonatal sepsis in published randomised controlled trials (RCTs). METHOD: A systematic search of the Embase and Cochrane databases was performed for RCTs which explicitly stated a definition for neonatal sepsis. Definitions were sub-divided into five primary criteria for infection (culture, laboratory findings, clinical signs, radiological evidence and risk factors) and stratified by qualifiers (early/late-onset and likelihood of sepsis). RESULTS: Of 668 papers screened, 80 RCTs were included and 128 individual definitions identified. The single most common definition was neonatal sepsis defined by blood culture alone (n = 35), followed by culture and clinical signs (n = 29), and then laboratory tests/clinical signs (n = 25). Blood culture featured in 83 definitions, laboratory testing featured in 48 definitions while clinical signs and radiology featured in 80 and 8 definitions, respectively. DISCUSSION: A diverse range of definitions of neonatal sepsis are used and based on microbiological culture, laboratory tests and clinical signs in contrast to adult and paediatric sepsis which use organ dysfunction. An international consensus-based definition of neonatal sepsis could allow meta-analysis and translate results to improve outcomes.

This dataset contains the parameterization of a no-policy baseline scenario of the global 11-regional MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model. Regions, time periods, commodities, technologies and relations included in this model are described in a separate repository. The dataset relies on the MESSAGEix modeling framework (Huppmann et al. 2019) and can be imported into MESSAGEix via the read_excel() functionality for which a tutorial is available. After the import the scenario can be solved and modified to create new scenarios. Note that the published scenario as included in the ENGAGE global scenarios dataset has been run with a release candidate of version 3.4.0 of MESSAGEix.

Contains fulltext : 283119.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access), BACKGROUND: The lack of a consensus definition of neonatal sepsis and a core outcome set (COS) proves a substantial impediment to research that influences policy and practice relevant to key stakeholders, patients and parents. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. In the included studies, the described outcomes were extracted in accordance with the provisions of the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) handbook and registered. RESULTS: Among 884 abstracts identified, 90 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in this review. Only 30 manuscripts explicitly stated the primary and/or secondary outcomes. A total of 88 distinct outcomes were recorded across all 90 studies included. These were then assigned to seven different domains in line with the taxonomy for classification proposed by the COMET initiative. The most frequently reported outcome was survival with 74% (n = 67) of the studies reporting an outcome within this domain. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review constitutes one of the initial phases in the protocol for developing a COS in neonatal sepsis. The paucity of standardised outcome reporting in neonatal sepsis hinders comparison and synthesis of data. The final phase will involve a Delphi Survey to generate a COS in neonatal sepsis by consensus recommendation. IMPACT: This systematic review identified a wide variation of outcomes reported among published RCTs on the management of neonatal sepsis. The paucity of standardised outcome reporting hinders comparison and synthesis of data and future meta-analyses with conclusive recommendations on the management of neonatal sepsis are unlikely. The final phase will involve a Delphi Survey to determine a COS by consensus recommendation with input from all relevant stakeholders.

Contains fulltext : 287864.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access)

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

The Working Group III (WGIII) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assesses literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change.The report reflects new findings in the relevant literature and builds on previous IPCC reports, including the WGIII contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the WGI and WGII contributions to AR6 and the three Special Reports in the Sixth Assessment cycle, as well as other UN assessments.

Chapter 3 assesses the emissions pathways literature in order to identify their key characteristics (both in commonalities and differences) and to understand how societal choices may steer the system into a particular direction (high confidence). More than 2000 quantitative emissions pathways were submitted to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report AR6 scenarios database, out of which 1202 scenarios included sufficient information for assessing the associated warming consistent with WGI.

The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector encompasses managed ecosystems and offers significant mitigation opportunities while delivering food, wood and other renewable resources as well as biodiversity conservation, provided the sector adapts to climate change. Land-based mitigation measures represent some of the most important options currently available. They can both deliver carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and substitute for fossil fuels, thereby enabling emissions reductions in other sectors. The rapid deployment of AFOLU measures is essential in all pathways staying within the limits of the remaining budget for a 1.5°C target (high confidence). Where carefully and appropriately implemented, AFOLU mitigation measures are uniquely positioned to deliver substantial co-benefits and help address many of the wider challenges associated with land management. If AFOLU measures are deployed badly then, when taken together with the increasing need to produce sufficient food, feed, fuel and wood, they may exacerbate trade-offs with the conservation of habitats, adaptation, biodiversity and other services. At the same time the capacity of the land to support these functions may be threatened by climate change itself (high confidence).

The total emission mitigation potential achievable by the year 2030, calculated based on sectoral assessments, is sufficient to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to half of the current (2019) level or less (robust evidence, high agreement). This potential (32–44 GtCO2-eq) requires implementation of a wide range of mitigation options. Options with mitigation costs lower than USD20 tCO2 –1 make up more than half of this potential and are available for all sectors.

Meeting climate mitigation goals would require transformative changes in the transport sector (high confidence). In 2019, direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector were 8.7 GtCO2-eq (up from 5.0 GtCO2-eq in 1990) and accounted for 23% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. 70% of direct transport emissions came from road vehicles, while 1%, 11%, and 12% came from rail, shipping, and aviation, respectively. Emissions from shipping and aviation continue to grow rapidly. Transport related emissions in developing regions of the world have increased more rapidly than in Europe or North America, a trend that is likely to continue in coming decades (high confidence).

Global net anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the last decade (2010–2019) were higher than at any previous time in human history (high confidence). Since 2010, GHG emissions have continued to grow, reaching 59 ± 6.6 GtCO2-eq in 2019,1 but the average annual growth in the last decade (1.3%, 2010–2019) was lower than in the previous decade (2.1%, 2000–2009) (high confidence). Average annual GHG emissions were 56 ± 6.0 GtCO2-eq yr –1 for the decade 2010–2019 growing by about 9.1 GtCO2-eq yr –1 from the previous decade (2000–2009) – the highest decadal average on record (high confidence).

The use of scenarios and modelling methods are pillars in IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) Assessment Reports. Past WGIII assessment report cycles identified knowledge gaps about the integration of modelling across scales and disciplines, mainly between global integrated assessment modelling methods and bottom-up modelling insights of mitigation responses. The need to improve the transparency of model assumptions and enhance the communication of scenario results was also recognised. This annex on Scenarios and Modelling Methods aims to address some of these gaps by detailing the modelling frameworks applied in the WGIII Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) chapters and disclose scenario assumptions and its key parameters. It has been explicitly included in the Scoping Meeting Report of the WGIII contribution to the AR6 and approved by the IPCC Panel at the 46th Session of the Panel.

Warming cannot be limited to well below 2°C without rapid and deep reductions in energy system carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%) with action starting in 2020), net energy system CO2 emissions (interquartile range) fall by 87–97% (60–79%) in 2050. In 2030, in scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, net CO2 and GHG emissions fall by 35–51% and 38–52% respectively. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%)), net electricity sector CO2 emissions reach zero globally between 2045 and 2055 (2050 and 2080). (high confidence).

This chapter focuses on accelerating mitigation and on shifting development pathways to increased sustainability, based on literature particularly at national scale. While previous WGIII assessments have discussed mitigation pathways, focus on development pathways is more recent. The timeframe is the near term (now up to 2030) to mid-term (2030 to 2050), complementing Chapter 3 on the long term (from 2050 onward).

Assessment of the social science literature and regional case studies reveals how social norms, culture, and individual choices interact with infrastructure and other structural changes over time. This provides new insight into climate change mitigation strategies, and how economic and social activity might be organised across sectors to support emission reductions. To enhance well-being, people demand services and not primary energy and physical resources per se. Focusing on demand for services and the different social and political roles people play broadens the participation in climate action.

Transport accounts for 24% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Governments face challenges in developing feasible and equitable mitigation strategies to reduce energy consumption and manage the transition to low-carbon transport systems. To meet the local and global transport emission reduction targets, policymakers need more realistic/sophisticated future projections of transport demand to better understand the speed and depth of the actions required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we argue that the lack of access to high-quality data on the current and historical travel demand and interdisciplinary research hinders transport planning and sustainable transitions toward low-carbon transport futures. We call for a greater interdisciplinary collaboration agenda across open data, data science, behaviour modelling, and policy analysis. These advancemets can reduce some of the major uncertainties and contribute to evidence-based solutions toward improving the sustainability performance of future transport systems. The paper also points to some needed efforts and directions to provide robust insights to policymakers. We provide examples of how these efforts could benefit from the International Transport Energy Modeling Open Data project and open science interdisciplinary collaborations.

Exploring potential future pathways for developing Asia’s energy consumption, CO2 emissions and infrastructure investment needs is essential to understanding how the countries of this rapidly growing region may contribute to the global climate targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. To this end, this study employs the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM to investigate mid-century decarbonization strategies for developing Asia to 2050. Our results indicate that a radical change in the energy portfolio is required to reach the target of ‘well below’ 2°C. Specifically, our scenarios point to a rapid reduction of fossil fuel utilization, enhancement of low-carbon energy supply, and boosting of energy efficiency efforts. Such a transformation leads to a deep cut in CO2 emissions by 78% and 93% by 2050 in scenarios consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively. Electricity generation and final energy consumption become dominated by low-carbon energy by 2050 in these scenarios. In terms of investment needs beyond a baseline scenario, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways imply that the scale of low-carbon investment may need to double and triple, respectively. These increases would be partially offset by disinvestment in coal, oil and natural gas extraction and conversion infrastructure. Decarbonizing the energy system also impacts the capital needed for making progress on other sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as air pollution, clean water and food security.

These webpages document the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) framework, also referred to as MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM. MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM is a global model, covering 11 world regions and was originally developed for the quantification of the so-called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The documentation includes information on the spatial and temporal structure of the model, the socio-economic drivers, the energy supply and demand sector representation, the agriculture, forest and other land-use component, and the macro-economic and climate modules. It also links to the underlying MESSAGEix mathematical modeling framework which includes information on the equations governing the model dynamics.

Governments around the globe are responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–related economic crisis with unprecedented economic recovery packages (1), which at the time of writing surpassed USD 12 trillion. Several influential voices, including the United Nations (UN) secretary-general, heads of state, companies, investors, and central banks, have called for post–COVID-19 economic recovery efforts to be used to catalyze the necessary longer-term transformation toward a more sustainable and resilient society. Here we shine a light on the opportunity for these investments to support a green recovery by inventorying and classifying the latest information on governments' fiscal stimulus plans (1) and comparing the size of these measures to estimates of low-carbon energy investment needs compatible with the 2015 UN Paris Agreement. We show that low-carbon investments to put the world on an ambitious track toward net zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century are dwarfed by currently announced COVID-19 stimulus funds. But marked differences across countries and regions at differing stages of development emphasize the role that international support and global partnership must play to create conditions that enable a global climate-positive recovery.

The concept of experience curves is normally applied to analyze cost or price developments of technologies, but studies have shown that the concept can also be extended to other applications and fields. In this chapter, we show the application of experience curves to analyze energy use in industrial processes, energy demand of household appliances and discuss its application to describe and project developments in environmental impact of technologies. A second part of the chapter shows a case study of applying the concept of technological learning to the field of social behavior in what is called social learning (SL). This part of the chapter shows how the diffusion of electric vehicles is affected by different SL mechanisms.

The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.

The radical change in recent global climate governance calls for China and Europe to ramp up their efforts in leading the world to reach the long-term climate goals. By analyzing the results from the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, this paper aims to understand the future levels of financial investment needed for building and maintaining energy-related infrastructure in the two regions for fulfilling stringent targets consistent with 'well below 2 °C'. The results indicate that a rapid upscaling and structural change of these investments towards decarbonization are necessitated by the climate stringent scenarios. China and Europe need to increase their low carbon investments by 65% and 38% in a scenario reaching the 2° target relative to their respective reference scenarios which assume no such target from 2016–2050. In a more stringent climate policy scenario of the 1.5° target, these investment needs will increase by 149% and 79% for China and Europe respectively. Among all the energy sectors, energy efficiency, renewable electricity generation and electricity transmission and distribution are the three largest investing targets for the two regions. However, those investments will not likely be realized without strong policy incentives. Implications for green finance and multilateral cooperation initiatives are discussed in the context of the scenario results.

Energy systems support technical solutions fulfilling the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal for clean water and sanitation (SDG6), with implications for future energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector is also a large consumer of water, making water efficiency targets ingrained in SDG6 important for long-term energy planning. Here, we apply a global integrated assessment model to quantify the cost and characteristics of infrastructure pathways balancing SDG6 clean water targets with long-term energy transformations limiting climate warming to 1.5 ˚C. The rapid expansions of water infrastructure and water efficiency to meet SDG6 targets increase energy decarbonization costs by 3 to 8 %. Conversely, under the 1.5 ˚C policy, shifts to electricity-intensive water systems in SDG6 pathways raises water prices by 2 to 9 %. Through water conservation and integrated water-energy planning we can achieve a collection of sustainability targets while avoiding incremental costs. This working paper was subsequently published in Environmental Research Letters and is available here, http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15591/.

Climate change mitigation scenarios are finding a wider set of users, including companies and financial institutions. Increased collaboration between scenario producers and these new communities will be mutually beneficial, educating companies and investors on climate risks while grounding climate science in real-world needs.

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation that is called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked upscaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving the goals of energy access and food security, but reduce the costs of achieving air-quality goals.

The transition to electric vehicles is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Modelling future pathways helps identify critical drivers and uncertainties. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been used extensively to analyse climate mitigation policy. IAMs emphasise technological change processes but are largely silent on important social and behavioural dimensions to future technological transitions. Here, we develop a novel conceptual framing and empirical evidence base on social learning processes relevant for vehicle adoption. We then implement this formulation of social learning in IMAGE, a widely-used global IAM. We apply this new modelling approach to analyse how technological learning and social learning interact to influence electric vehicle transition dynamics. We find that technological learning and social learning processes can be mutually reinforcing. Increased electric vehicle market shares can induce technological learning which reduces technology costs while social learning stimulates diffusion from early adopters to more risk-averse adopter groups. In this way, both types of learning process interact to stimulate each other. In the absence of social learning, however, the perceived risks of electric vehicle adoption among later-adopting groups remains prohibitively high. In the absence of technological learning, electric vehicles remain relatively expensive and therefore is only an attractive choice for early adopters. This first-of-its-kind model formulation of both social and technological learning is a significant contribution to improving the behavioural realism of global IAMs. Applying this new modelling approach emphasises the importance of market heterogeneity, real-world consumer decision-making, and social dynamics as well as technology parameters, to understand climate mitigation potentials.

Pursuing integrated research and decision-making to advance action on the sustainable development goals (SDGs) fundamentally depends on understanding interactions between the SDGs, both negative ones (“trade-offs”) and positive ones (“co-benefits”). This quest, triggered by the 2030 Agenda, has however pointed to a gap in current research and policy analysis regarding how to think systematically about interactions across the SDGs. This paper synthesizes experiences and insights from the application of a new conceptual framework for mapping and assessing SDG interactions using a defined typology and characterization approach. Drawing on results from a major international research study applied to the SDGs on health, energy and the ocean, it analyses how interactions depend on key factors such as geographical context, resource endowments, time horizon and governance. The paper discusses the future potential, barriers and opportunities for applying the approach in scientific research, in policy making and in bridging the two through a global SDG Interactions Knowledge Platform as a key mechanism for assembling, systematizing and aggregating knowledge on interactions.