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For applications such as warehouse order fulfillment, robot grasps must be robust to uncertainty arising from sensing, mechanics, and control. One way to achieve robustness is to evaluate the performance of candidate grasps by sampling perturbations in shape, pose, and gripper approach and to compute the probability of force closure for each candidate to identify a grasp with the highest expected quality. Since evaluating the quality of each grasp is computationally demanding, prior work has turned to cloud computing. To improve computational efficiency and to extend this work, we consider how Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) models for optimizing decisions can be applied in this context. We formulate robust grasp planning as a MAB problem and evaluate convergence times towards an optimal grasp candidate using 100 object shapes from the Brown Vision 2D Lab Dataset with 1000 grasp candidates per object. We consider the case where shape uncertainty is represented as a Gaussian process implicit surface (GPIS) with Gaussian uncertainty in pose, gripper approach angle, and coefficient of friction. We find that Thompson Sampling and the Gittins index MAB methods converged to within 3% of the optimal grasp up to 10x faster than uniform allocation and 5x faster than iterative pruning.

To probe its environment, the flying insect controllably flexes, twists, and maneuvers its antennae by coupling mechanical deformations with the sensory output. We question how the materials properties of insect antennae could influence their performance. A comparative study was conducted on four hawkmoth species: Manduca sexta, Ceratomia catalpae, Manduca quinquemaculata, and Xylophanes tersa. The morphology of the antennae of three hawkmoths that hover while feeding and one putatively non-nectar-feeding hawkmoth (Ceratomia catalpa) do not fundamentally differ, and all the antennae are comb-like (i.e., pectinate), markedly in males but weakly in females. Applying different weights to the free end of extracted cantilevered antennae, we discovered anisotropy in flexural rigidity when the antenna is forced to bend dorsally versus ventrally. The flexural rigidity of male antennae was less than that of females. Compared with the hawkmoths that hover while feeding, Ceratomia catalpae has almost two orders of magnitude lower flexural rigidity. Tensile tests showed that the stiffness of male and female antennae is almost the same. Therefore, the differences in flexural rigidity are explained by the distinct shapes of the antennal pectination. Like bristles in a comb, the pectinations provide extra rigidity to the antenna. We discuss the biological implications of these discoveries in relation to the flight habits of hawkmoths. Flexural anisotropy of antennae is expected in other groups of insects, but the targeted outcome may differ. Our work offers promising new applications of shaped fibers as mechanical sensors. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Insect antennae are blood-filled, segmented fibers with muscles in the two basal segments. The long terminal segment is muscle-free but can be flexed. Our comparative analysis of mechanical properties of hawkmoth antennae revealed a new feature: antenna resistance to bending depends on the bending direction. Our discovery replaces the conventional textbook scenario considering hawkmoth antennae as rigid rods. We showed that the pectinate antennae of hawkmoths behave as a comb in which the bristles resist bending when they come together. This anisotropy of flexural resistance offers a new mode of environmental sensing that has never been explored. The principles we found apply to other insects with non-axisymmetric antennae. Our work offers new applications for shaped fibers that could be designed to sense the flows., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The 2022 FIFA World Cup was the first major multi-continental sporting Mass Gathering Event (MGE) of the post COVID-19 era to allow foreign spectators. Such large-scale MGEs can potentially lead to outbreaks of infectious disease and contribute to the global dissemination of such pathogens. Here we adapt previous work and create a generalisable model framework for assessing the use of disease control strategies at such events, in terms of reducing infections and hospitalisations. This framework utilises a combination of meta-populations based on clusters of people and their vaccination status, Ordinary Differential Equation integration between fixed time events, and Latin Hypercube sampling. We use the FIFA 2022 World Cup as a case study for this framework (modelling each match as independent 7 day MGEs). Pre-travel screenings of visitors were found to have little effect in reducing COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations. With pre-match screenings of spectators and match staff being more effective. Rapid Antigen (RA) screenings 0.5 days before match day performed similarly to RT-PCR screenings 1.5 days before match day. Combinations of pre-travel and pre-match testing led to improvements. However, a policy of ensuring that all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination (second or booster dose) within a few months before departure proved to be much more efficacious. The State of Qatar abandoned all COVID-19 related travel testing and vaccination requirements over the period of the World Cup. Our work suggests that the State of Qatar may have been correct in abandoning the pre-travel testing of visitors. However, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations within Qatar over the World Cup. Given our findings and the spike in cases, we suggest a policy requiring visitors to have had a recent COVID-19 vaccination should have been in place to reduce cases and hospitalisations., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: LC is a Sanofi employee and may hold stock options within Sanofi. EWT is a Sanofi employee and may hold stock options within Sanofi. AA is a Sanofi employee and may hold stock options within Sanofi., (Copyright: © 2024 Grunnill et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The co-circulation of two respiratory infections with similar symptoms in a population can significantly overburden a healthcare system by slowing the testing and treatment. The persistent emergence of contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2, along with imperfect vaccines and their waning protections, have increased the likelihood of new COVID-19 outbreaks taking place during a typical flu season. Here, we developed a mathematical model for the co-circulation dynamics of COVID-19 and influenza, under different scenarios of influenza vaccine coverage, COVID-19 vaccine booster coverage and efficacy, and testing capacity. We investigated the required minimal and optimal coverage of COVID-19 booster (third) and fourth doses, in conjunction with the influenza vaccine, to avoid the coincidence of infection peaks for both diseases in a single season. We show that the testing delay brought on by the high number of influenza cases impacts the dynamics of influenza and COVID-19 transmission. The earlier the peak of the flu season and the greater the number of infections with flu-like symptoms, the greater the risk of flu transmission, which slows down COVID-19 testing, resulting in the delay of complete isolation of patients with COVID-19 who have not been isolated before the clinical presentation of symptoms and have been continuing their normal daily activities. Furthermore, our simulations stress the importance of vaccine uptake for preventing infection, severe illness, and hospitalization at the individual level and for disease outbreak control at the population level to avoid putting strain on already weak and overwhelmed healthcare systems. As such, ensuring optimal vaccine coverage for COVID-19 and influenza to reduce the burden of these infections is paramount. We showed that by keeping the influenza vaccine coverage about 35% and increasing the coverage of booster or fourth dose of COVID-19 not only reduces the infections with COVID-19 but also can delay its peak time. If the influenza vaccine coverage is increased to 55%, unexpectedly, it increases the peak size of influenza infections slightly, while it reduces the peak size of COVID-19 as well as significantly delays the peaks of both of these diseases. Mask-wearing coupled with a moderate increase in the vaccine uptake may mitigate COVID-19 and prevent an influenza outbreak., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Majeed, David, Bragazzi, McCarthy, Grunnill, Heffernan, Wu and Woldegerima.)

Background: Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals., Methods: We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram., Results: The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site., Conclusions: This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

We conducted a comparative study of the COVID-19 epidemic in three different settings: mainland China, the Guangdong province of China and South Korea, by formulating two disease transmission dynamics models which incorporate epidemic characteristics and setting-specific interventions, and fitting the models to multi-source data to identify initial and effective reproduction numbers and evaluate effectiveness of interventions. We estimated the initial basic reproduction number for South Korea, the Guangdong province and mainland China as 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): (2.5, 2.7)), 3.0 (95%CI: (2.6, 3.3)) and 3.8 (95%CI: (3.5,4.2)), respectively, given a serial interval with mean of 5 days with standard deviation of 3 days. We found that the effective reproduction number for the Guangdong province and mainland China has fallen below the threshold 1 since February 8th and 18th respectively, while the effective reproduction number for South Korea remains high until March 2nd Moreover our model-based analysis shows that the COVID-19 epidemics in South Korean is almost under control with the cumulative confirmed cases tending to be stable as of April 14th. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that a coherent and integrated approach with stringent public health interventions is the key to the success of containing the epidemic in China and especially its provinces outside its epicenter. In comparison, we find that the extremely high detection rate is the key factor determining the success in controlling the COVID-19 epidemics in South Korea. The experience of outbreak control in mainland China and South Korea should be a guiding reference for the rest of the world., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on an age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0-11 years) when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to contain the epidemic among this subpopulation, or the effective herd immunity (with additional physical distancing measures). We describe the relationship between the attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the population of Canada and in its province of Ontario. The clinical attack ratio, defined as the number of symptomatic infections over the total population, can be informed from the attack ratio and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of reduced social mixing and rapid testing and isolation of the children., Competing Interests: We declare we have no competing interests., (© 2022 The Authors.)

The elderly, especially those individuals with pre-existing health problems, have been disproportionally at a higher risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Residents of long-term care facilities have been gravely affected by the pandemic and resident death numbers have been far above those of the general population. To better understand how infectious diseases such as COVID-19 can spread through long-term care facilities, we developed an agent-based simulation tool that uses a contact matrix adapted from previous infection control research in these types of facilities. This matrix accounts for the average distinct daily contacts between seven different agent types that represent the roles of individuals in long-term care facilities. The simulation results were compared to actual COVID-19 outbreaks in some of the long-term care facilities in Ontario, Canada. Our analysis shows that this simulation tool is capable of predicting the number of resident deaths after 50 days with a less than 0.1 variation in death rate. We modeled and predicted the effectiveness of infection control measures by utilizing this simulation tool. We found that to reduce the number of resident deaths, the effectiveness of personal protective equipment must be above 50%. We also found that daily random COVID-19 tests for as low as less than 10% of a long-term care facility's population will reduce the number of resident deaths by over 75%. The results further show that combining several infection control measures will lead to more effective outcomes.

Introduction: The rationale for this study was to ascertain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Undergraduate B.Sc (Hons) Diagnostic Radiography students at the University of Hertfordshire in the UK. This would provide an ideal opportunity for students to reflect on their experience and indicate if they required additional support from the University., Methods: An online anonymous cross-sectional survey was deployed to all year groups (n = 283) during the first nationwide lockdown in May 2020, eliciting qualitative responses on questions about the effect of the pandemic; emotions experienced; support required and consideration of their choice of a career in the health sector., Results: Two hundred and one students responded to the survey, with many having experienced the illness or loss of a loved one. Trying to balance family commitments and study was a concern to some students, as well as struggling with the financial burden of job losses or furlough. Many students commented that educational support was a requirement with the move to online teaching and assessment. The main focus of student responses was the emotions that they had experienced, many of which were negative. Anxiety and fear were commonly expressed feelings, along with sadness and feelings of isolation. A small number of students reported feeling grateful, happy and relieved. An overwhelming majority of respondents commented that they were proud to be healthcare students and they were resolute in wanting to continue the course and join the frontline of the NHS workforce., Conclusion: Some students have been deeply affected by their experiences of the pandemic, and University support mechanisms should be refined to better assist with their ongoing challenges., (© 2021 The Authors. Journal of Medical Radiation Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Society of Medical Imaging and Radiation Therapy and New Zealand Institute of Medical Radiation Technology.)

To investigate whether therapeutic hypothermia augments the restorative impact of protein kinase C-β (PKC-β) and Nox2 inhibition on an in vitro model of human blood-brain barrier (BBB). Cells cultured in normoglycaemic (5.5 mM) or hyperglycaemic (25 mM, 6 to 120 h) conditions were treated with therapeutic hypothermia (35 °C) in the absence or presence of a PKC-β inhibitor (LY333531, 0.05 μM) or a Nox2 inhibitor (gp91ds-tat, 50 μM). BBB was established by co-culture of human brain microvascular endothelial cells (HBMECs) with astrocytes (HAs) and pericytes. BBB integrity and function were assessed via transendothelial electrical resistance (TEER) and paracellular flux of sodium fluorescein (NaF, 376 Da). Nox activity (lucigenin assay), superoxide anion production (cytochrome-C reduction assay), cellular proliferative capacity (wound scratch assay) and actin cytoskeletal formation (rhodamine-phalloidin staining) were assessed both in HBMECs and HAs using the specific methodologies indicated in brackets. Therapeutic hypothermia augmented the protective effects of PKC-β or Nox2 inhibition on BBB integrity and function in experimental setting of hyperglycaemia, as evidenced by increases in TEER and concomitant decreases in paracellular flux of NaF. The combinatory approaches were more effective in repairing physical damage exerted on HBMEC and HA monolayers by wound scratch and in decreasing Nox activity and superoxide anion production compared to sole treatment regimen with either agent. Similarly, the combinatory approaches were more effective in suppressing actin stress fibre formation and maintaining normal cytoskeletal structure. Therapeutic hypothermia augments the cerebral barrier-restorative capacity of agents specifically targeting PKC-β or Nox2 pathways., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

We developed a stochastic optimization technology based on a COVID-19 transmission dynamics model to determine optimal pathways from lockdown toward reopening with different scales and speeds of mass vaccine rollout in order to maximize social economical activities while not overwhelming the health system capacity in general, hospitalization beds, and intensive care units in particular. We used the Province of Ontario, Canada as a case study to demonstrate the methodology and the optimal decision trees; but our method and algorithm are generic and can be adapted to other settings. Our model framework and optimization strategies take into account the likely range of social contacts during different phases of a gradual reopening process and consider the uncertainties of these contact rates due to variations of individual behaviors and compliance. The results show that, without a mass vaccination rollout, there would be multiple optimal pathways should this strategy be adopted right after the Province's lockdown and stay-at-home order; however, once reopening has started earlier than the timing determined in the optimal pathway, an optimal pathway with similar constraints no longer exists, and sub-optimal pathways with increased demand for intensive care units can be found, but the choice is limited and the pathway is narrow. We also simulated the situation when the reopening starts after the mass vaccination has been rolled out, and we concluded that optimal pathways toward near pre-pandemic activity level is feasible given an accelerated vaccination rollout plan, with the final activity level being determined by the vaccine coverage and the transmissibility of the dominating strain., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Xiao, Chen, Zhu, McCarthy, Bragazzi, Asgary and Wu.)

Background: When public health interventions are being loosened after several days of decline in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, it is of critical importance to identify potential strategies to ease restrictions while mitigating a new wave of more transmissible variants of concern (VOCs). We estimated the necessary enhancements to public health interventions for a partial reopening of the economy while avoiding the worst consequences of a new outbreak, associated with more transmissible VOCs., Methods: We used a transmission dynamics model to quantify conditions that combined public health interventions must meet to reopen the economy without a large outbreak. These conditions are those that maintain the control reproduction number below unity, while accounting for an increase in transmissibility due to VOC., Results: We identified combinations of the proportion of individuals exposed to the virus who are traced and quarantined before becoming infectious, the proportion of symptomatic individuals confirmed and isolated, and individual daily contact rates needed to ensure the control reproduction number remains below unity., Conclusion: Our analysis indicates that the success of restrictive measures including lockdown and stay-at-home orders, as reflected by a reduction in number of cases, provides a narrow window of opportunity to intensify case detection and contact tracing efforts to prevent a new wave associated with circulation of more transmissible VOCs., Competing Interests: Competing interests None.

There is a heavy burden associated with influenza including all-cause hospitalization as well as severe cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory events. Influenza associated cardiac events have been linked to multiple biological pathways in a human host. To study the contribution of influenza virus infection to cardiovascular thrombotic events, we develop a dynamic model which incorporates some key elements of the host immune response, inflammatory response, and blood coagulation. We formulate these biological systems and integrate them into a cohesive modelling framework to show how blood clotting may be connected to influenza virus infection. With blood clot formation inside an artery resulting from influenza virus infection as the primary outcome of this integrated model, we demonstrate how blood clot severity may depend on circulating prothrombin levels. We also utilize our model to leverage clinical data to inform the threshold level of the inflammatory cytokine TNFα which initiates tissue factor induction and subsequent blood clotting. Our model provides a tool to explore how individual biological components contribute to blood clotting events in the presence of influenza infection, to identify individuals at risk of clotting based on their circulating prothrombin levels, and to guide the development of future vaccines to optimally interact with the immune system.

Background: Seasonal influenza poses a significant public health and economic burden, associated with the outcome of infection and resulting complications. The true burden of the disease is difficult to capture due to the wide range of presentation, from asymptomatic cases to non-respiratory complications such as cardiovascular events, and its seasonal variability. An understanding of the magnitude of the true annual incidence of influenza is important to support prevention and control policy development and to evaluate the impact of preventative measures such as vaccination., Methods: We use a dynamic disease transmission model, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data, and randomized-controlled trial (RCT) data to quantify the underestimation factor, expansion factor, and symptomatic influenza illnesses in the US and Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 influenza seasons., Results: Based on 2 case definitions, we estimate between 0.42-3.2% and 0.33-1.2% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in Canada during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. In the US, we estimate between 0.08-0.61% and 0.07-0.33% of symptomatic influenza illnesses were laboratory-confirmed in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons, respectively. We estimated the symptomatic influenza illnesses in Canada to be 0.32-2.4 million in 2011-2012 and 1.8-8.2 million in 2012-2013. In the US, we estimate the number of symptomatic influenza illnesses to be 4.4-34 million in 2011-2012 and 23-102 million in 2012-2013., Conclusions: We illustrate that monitoring a representative group within a population may aid in effectively modelling the transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza. In particular, the utilization of RCTs in models may enhance the accuracy of epidemiological parameter estimation.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented in terms of the contact rate, probability of transmission per contact, proportion of isolated contacts, and detection rate. This allows us to calculate the control reproduction number during different phases (which gradually decreased to less than one). From this, we derive the necessary conditions in terms of enhanced social distancing, personal protection, contact tracing, quarantine/isolation strength at each escalation phase for the disease control to avoid a rebound. From this, we quantify the conditions needed to prevent epidemic rebound during de-escalation by simply reversing the escalation process.

Public health interventions have been implemented to mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Ontario, Canada; however, the quantification of their effectiveness remains to be done and is important to determine if some of the social distancing measures can be relaxed without resulting in a second wave. We aim to equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with mathematical model-based quantification of implemented public health measures and estimation of the trend of COVID-19 in Ontario to inform future actions in terms of outbreak control and de-escalation of social distancing. Our estimates confirm that (1) social distancing measures have helped mitigate transmission by reducing daily infection contact rate, but the disease transmission probability per contact remains as high as 0.145 and case detection rate was so low that the effective reproduction number remained higher than the threshold for disease control until the closure of non-essential business in the Province; (2) improvement in case detection rate and closure of non-essential business had resulted in further reduction of the effective control number to under the threshold. We predict the number of confirmed cases according to different control efficacies including a combination of reducing further contact rates and transmission probability per contact. We show that improved case detection rate plays a decisive role to reduce the effective reproduction number, and there is still much room in terms of improving personal protection measures to compensate for the strict social distancing measures., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2020.)

Social contact mixing plays a critical role in influencing the transmission routes of infectious diseases. Moreover, quantifying social contact mixing patterns and their variations in a rapidly evolving pandemic intervened by changing public health measures is key for retroactive evaluation and proactive assessment of the effectiveness of different age- and setting-specific interventions. Contact mixing patterns have been used to inform COVID-19 pandemic public health decision-making; but a rigorously justified methodology to identify setting-specific contact mixing patterns and their variations in a rapidly developing pandemic, which can be informed by readily available data, is in great demand and has not yet been established. Here we fill in this critical gap by developing and utilizing a novel methodology, integrating social contact patterns derived from empirical data with a disease transmission model, that enables the usage of age-stratified incidence data to infer age-specific susceptibility, daily contact mixing patterns in workplace, household, school and community settings; and transmission acquired in these settings under different physical distancing measures. We demonstrated the utility of this methodology by performing an analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ontario, Canada. We quantified the age- and setting (household, workplace, community, and school)-specific mixing patterns and their evolution during the escalation of public health interventions in Ontario, Canada. We estimated a reduction in the average individual contact rate from 12.27 to 6.58 contacts per day, with an increase in household contacts, following the implementation of control measures. We also estimated increasing trends by age in both the susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of symptomatic individuals diagnosed. Inferring the age- and setting-specific social contact mixing and key age-stratified epidemiological parameters, in the presence of evolving control measures, is critical to inform decision- and policy-making for the current COVID-19 pandemic., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2020.)

Pathogen control during poultry processing critically depends on more enhanced insight into contamination dynamics. In this study we build an individual based model (IBM) of the chilling process. Quantifying the relationships between typical Canadian processing specifications, water chemistry dynamics and pathogen levels both in the chiller water and on individual carcasses, the IBM is shown to provide a useful tool for risk management as it can inform risk assessment models. We apply the IBM to Campylobacter spp. contamination on broiler carcasses, illustrating how free chlorine (FC) sanitization, organic load in the water, and pre-chill carcass pathogen levels affect pathogen levels of post-chill broilers. In particular, given a uniform distribution of Campylobacter levels on incoming poultry we quantify the efficacy of FC control in not only reducing pathogen levels on average, but also the variation of pathogen levels on poultry exiting the chill tank. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the absence/presence of FC input dramatically influences when, during a continuous chilling operation, cross-contamination will be more likely., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.)