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Most of the visible matter in the Universe is in a gaseous state, subject to hydrodynamic forces and galaxy formation processes that are much more complex to model than gravity. These baryonic effects can potentially bias the analyses of several cosmological probes, such as weak gravitational lensing. In this work, we study the gas density and velocity fields of the FLAMINGO simulations and compare them with their gravity-only predictions. We find that, while the gas velocities do not differ from those of dark matter on large scales, the gas mass power spectrum is suppressed by up to $\approx 8\%$ relative to matter, even on gigaparsec scales. This is a consequence of star formation depleting gas in the densest and most clustered regions of the universe. On smaller scales, $k>0.1 \, h / \rm Mpc$, the power suppression for both gas densities and velocities is more significant and correlates with the strength of the active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback. The impact of feedback can be understood in terms of outflows, identified as gas bubbles with positive radial velocities ejected from the central galaxy. With increasing feedback strength, the outflowing gas has higher velocities, and it reaches scales as large as $10$ times the virial radius of the halo, redistributing the gas and slowing its average infall velocity. Interestingly, different implementations of AGN feedback leave distinct features in these outflows in terms of their radial and angular profiles and their dependence on halo mass. In the future, such differences could be measured in observations using, for example, the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect.

Energetic feedback processes associated with accreting supermassive black holes can expel gas from massive haloes and significantly alter various measures of clustering on ~Mpc scales, potentially biasing the values of cosmological parameters inferred from analyses of large-scale structure (LSS) if not modelled accurately. Here we use the state-of-the-art FLAMINGO suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to gauge the impact of feedback on large-scale structure by comparing to Planck + ACT stacking measurements of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect of SDSS BOSS galaxies. We make careful like-with-like comparisons to the observations, aided by high precision KiDS and DES galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements of the BOSS galaxies to inform the selection of the simulated galaxies. In qualitative agreement with several recent studies using dark matter only simulations corrected for baryonic effects, we find that the kSZ effect measurements prefer stronger feedback than predicted by simulations which have been calibrated to reproduce the gas fractions of low redshift X-ray-selected groups and clusters. We find that the increased feedback can help to reduce the so-called S8 tension between the observed and CMB-predicted clustering on small scales as probed by cosmic shear (although at the expense of agreement with the X-ray group measurements). However, the increased feedback is only marginally effective at reducing the reported offsets between the predicted and observed clustering as probed by the thermal SZ (tSZ) effect power spectrum and tSZ effect--weak lensing cross-spectrum, both of which are sensitive to higher halo masses than cosmic shear., Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Recent large-scale structure (LSS) surveys have revealed a persistent tension in the value of $S_8$ compared to predictions from the standard cosmological model. This tension may suggest the need for new physics beyond the standard model, but an accurate characterisation of baryonic effects is essential to avoid biases. Although some studies indicate that baryonic effects are too small to resolve this tension, others propose that more aggressive feedback mechanisms could reconcile differences between cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements and low-redshift LSS observations. In this paper, we investigate the role of baryonic effects in alleviating the $S_8$ tension. We extend the SP(k) model (Salcido et al. 2023), which was trained on hundreds of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to map the suppression of the matter power spectrum to the baryon fraction in groups and clusters, to predict the required baryon fraction for a given $P(k)$ suppression. We then compare predictions from recent cosmic shear (weak lensing) analyses with the latest baryon budget measurements from X-ray and weak gravitational lensing studies. Our findings show that studies marginalising over baryonic effects while fixing cosmological parameters to a Planck-like cosmology predict strong $P(k)$ suppression and baryon fractions that are much lower than existing low-redshift baryon budget estimates of galaxy groups and clusters. Conversely, most studies that marginalise over both cosmological parameters and baryonic effects imply baryon fractions that are consistent with observations but lower values of $S_8$ than inferred from the CMB. Unless the observed baryon fractions are biased high by a factor of several, these results suggest that a mechanism beyond baryonic physics alone is required to modify or slow down the growth of structure in the universe in order to resolve the $S_8$ tension., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS. 12 pages, 7 figures

Galaxy clusters provide an avenue to expand our knowledge of cosmology and galaxy evolution. Because it is difficult to accurately measure the total mass of a large number of individual clusters, cluster samples are typically selected using an observable proxy for mass. Selection effects are therefore a key problem in understanding galaxy cluster statistics. We make use of the $(2.8~\rm{Gpc})^3$ FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulation to investigate how selection based on X-ray luminosity, thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect or galaxy richness influences the halo mass distribution. We define our selection cuts based on the median value of the observable at a fixed mass and compare the resulting samples to a mass-selected sample. We find that all samples are skewed towards lower mass haloes. For X-ray luminosity and richness cuts below a critical value, scatter dominates over the trend with mass and the median mass becomes biased increasingly low with respect to a mass-selected sample. At $z\leq0.5$, observable cuts corresponding to median halo masses between $M_\text{500c}=10^{14}$ and $10^{15}~\rm{M_{\odot}}$ give nearly unbiased median masses for all selection methods, but X-ray selection results in biased medians for higher masses. For cuts corresponding to median masses $<10^{14}$ at $z\leq0.5$ and for all masses at $z\geq1$, only Compton-Y selection yields nearly unbiased median masses. Importantly, even when the median mass is unbiased, the scatter is not because for each selection the sample is skewed towards lower masses than a mass-selected sample. Each selection leads to a different bias in secondary quantities like cool-core fraction, temperature and gas fraction., Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures (Including the appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor changes w.r.t. version 1

We present several machine learning (ML) models developed to efficiently separate stars formed in-situ in Milky Way-type galaxies from those that were formed externally and later accreted. These models, which include examples from artificial neural networks, decision trees and dimensionality reduction techniques, are trained on a sample of disc-like, Milky Way-mass galaxies drawn from the ARTEMIS cosmological hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations. We find that the input parameters which provide an optimal performance for these models consist of a combination of stellar positions, kinematics, chemical abundances ([Fe/H] and [$\alpha$/Fe]) and photometric properties. Models from all categories perform similarly well, with area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) scores of $\simeq 0.6$. Beyond a galactocentric radius of $5$~kpc, models retrieve $>90\%$ of accreted stars, with a sample purity close to $60\%$, however the purity can be increased by adjusting the classification threshold. For one model, we also include host galaxy-specific properties in the training, to account for the variability of accretion histories of the hosts, however this does not lead to an improvement in performance. The ML models can identify accreted stars even in regions heavily dominated by the in-situ component (e.g., in the disc), and perform well on an unseen suite of simulations (the Auriga simulations). The general applicability bodes well for application of such methods on observational data to identify accreted substructures in the Milky Way without the need to resort to selection cuts for minimising the contamination from in-situ stars.

Large-scale structure surveys have reported measurements of the density of matter, $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$, and the amplitude of clustering, $\sigma_8$, that are in tension with the values inferred from observations of the cosmic microwave background. While this may be a sign of new physics that slows the growth of structure at late times, strong astrophysical feedback processes could also be responsible. In this work, we argue that astrophysical processes are not independent of cosmology and that their coupling naturally leads to stronger baryonic feedback in cosmological models with suppressed structure formation or when combined with a mechanism that removes dark matter from halos. We illustrate this with two well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model known to suppress structure formation: massive neutrinos and decaying dark matter. Our results, based on the FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations, show that the combined effect of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms is greater than the sum of its parts, particularly for decaying dark matter. We also show that the dependence of baryonic feedback on cosmology can be modelled as a function of the ratio $f_\mathrm{b}/c^2_\mathrm{v}\sim f_\mathrm{b}/(\Omega_\mathrm{m}\sigma_8)^{1/4}$ of the universal baryon fraction, $f_\mathrm{b}$, to a velocity-based definition of halo concentration, $c^2_\mathrm{v}$, giving an accurate fitting formula for the baryonic suppression of the matter power spectrum. Although the combination of baryonic and non-baryonic suppression mechanisms can resolve the tension, the models with neutrinos and decaying dark matter are challenged by constraints on the expansion history., Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures, MNRAS, accepted for publication

We present the new ARTEMIS Emulator suite of high resolution (baryon mass of $2.23 \times 10^{4}$ $h^{-1}$M$_{\odot}$) zoom-in simulations of Milky Way mass systems. Here, three haloes from the original ARTEMIS sample have been rerun multiple times, systematically varying parameters for the stellar feedback model, the density threshold for star formation, the reionisation redshift and the assumed warm dark matter (WDM) particle mass (assuming a thermal relic). From these simulations emulators are trained for a wide range of statistics that allow for fast predictions at combinations of parameters not originally sampled, running in $\sim 1$ms (a factor of $\sim 10^{11}$ faster than the simulations). In this paper we explore the dependence of the central haloes' stellar mass on the varied parameters, finding the stellar feedback parameters to be the most important. When constraining the parameters to match the present-day stellar mass halo mass relation inferred from abundance matching we find that there is a strong degeneracy in the stellar feedback parameters, corresponding to a freedom in formation time of the stellar component for a fixed halo assembly history. We additionally explore the dependence of the satellite stellar mass function, where it is found that variations in stellar feedback, the reionisation redshift and the WDM mass all have a significant effect. The presented emulators are a powerful tool which allows for fundamentally new ways of analysing and interpreting cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. Crucially, allowing their free (subgrid) parameters to be varied and marginalised, leading to more robust constraints and predictions., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, accepted to MNRAS

We introduce GODMAX (Gas thermODynamics and Matter distribution using jAX), a novel code designed to calculate correlations between the cosmological matter distribution and various gas thermodynamic quantities. Utilizing the extensive ANTILLES suite of 200 hydrodynamical simulations with a diverse range of baryonic feedback strengths, we jointly fit the 3D profiles of total matter distribution, electron density, and electron pressure across various halo masses and redshifts. By accommodating significant variations in gas profiles expected due to baryonic feedback, solving exact hydrostatic equilibrium equation and offering flexible modeling of non-thermal pressure support, GODMAX has the capability to jointly fit all these profiles within the measurement uncertainties. This advancement enables, for the first time, robust joint analyses of multiple cosmic probes, including the kinetic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, weak lensing, and X-ray observations. Furthermore, the model accurately captures correlations between the total matter power suppression due to baryonic feedback and local average thermodynamic quantities, such as the baryon fraction and integrated tSZ effect, in high-mass halos, aligning with observations from hydrodynamical simulations. Looking ahead, we forecast the expected constraints on cosmological and baryonic parameters from upcoming weak lensing catalogs from the LSST and tSZ maps from the Simons Observatory. This analysis underscores the importance of cross-correlations between weak lensing and tSZ in enhancing parameter constraints by resolving major systematic uncertainties due to baryonic physics. The GODMAX code leverages the JAX library, resulting in a fully differentiable halo model with native GPU compilation support., Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures

Weak gravitational lensing convergence peaks, the local maxima in weak lensing convergence maps, have been shown to contain valuable cosmological information complementary to commonly used two-point statistics. To exploit the full power of weak lensing for cosmology, we must model baryonic feedback processes because these reshape the matter distribution on non-linear and mildly non-linear scales. We study the impact of baryonic physics on the number density of weak lensing peaks using the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We generate ray-traced full-sky convergence maps mimicking the characteristics of a Stage IV weak lensing survey. We compare the number densities of peaks in simulations that have been calibrated to reproduce the observed galaxy mass function and cluster gas fraction or to match a shifted version of these, and that use either thermally driven or jet AGN feedback. We show that the differences induced by realistic baryonic feedback prescriptions (typically $5 - 30\%$ for $\kappa = 0.1 - 0.4$) are smaller than those induced by reasonable variations in cosmological parameters ($20 - 60\%$ for $\kappa = 0.1 - 0.4$) but must be modeled carefully to obtain unbiased results. The reasons behind these differences can be understood by considering the impact of feedback on halo masses, or by considering the impact of different cosmological parameters on the halo mass function. Our analysis demonstrates that, for the range of models we investigated, the baryonic suppression is insensitive to changes in cosmology up to $\kappa \approx 0.4$ and that the higher $\kappa$ regime is dominated by Poisson noise and cosmic variance., Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures (including the appendix), Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Galaxy clusters are important probes for both cosmology and galaxy formation physics. We test the cosmological, hydrodynamical FLAMINGO simulations by comparing to observations of the gaseous properties of clusters measured from X-ray observations. FLAMINGO contains unprecedented numbers of massive galaxy groups ($>10^6$) and clusters ($>10^5$) and includes variations in both cosmology and galaxy formation physics. We predict the evolution of cluster scaling relations as well as radial profiles of the temperature, density, pressure, entropy, and metallicity for different masses and redshifts. We show that the differences between volume-, and X-ray-weighting of particles in the simulations, and between cool-core non cool-core samples, are similar in size as the differences between simulations for which the stellar and AGN feedback has been calibrated to produce significantly different gas fractions. Compared to thermally-driven AGN feedback, kinetic jet feedback calibrated to produce the same gas fraction at $R_{\rm 500c}$ yields a hotter core with higher entropies and lower densities, which translates into a smaller fraction of cool-core clusters. Stronger feedback, calibrated to produce lower gas fractions and hence lower gas densities, results in higher temperatures, entropies, and metallicities, but lower pressures. The scaling relations and thermodynamic profiles show almost no evolution with respect to self-similar expectations, except for the metallicity decreasing with redshift. We find that the temperature, density, pressure, and entropy profiles of clusters in the fiducial FLAMINGO simulation are in excellent agreement with observations, while the metallicities in the core are too high., Comment: 21 pages, 14 figures (including appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Moved Section 3 to Appendix A, new Section 3 compares scaling relations for different physics models. Added lower mass bin for physics model comparison of thermodynamic profiles. Conclusions unchanged

Redshift space distortions are an important probe of the growth of large-scale structure and for constraining cosmological parameters in general. As galaxy redshift surveys approach percent level precision in their observations of the two point clustering statistics, it is timely to review what effects baryons and associated processes such as feedback may have on small-scale clustering in redshift space. Contrary to previous studies in the literature, we show using the large-volume BAHAMAS hydrodynamic simulations that the effect of baryons can be as much as 1% in the k ~ 0.1 h/Mpc range for the monopole and 5% for quadrupole, and that this could rise to as much as 10% at k~10 h/Mpc in both measurements. For the halo power spectra, this difference can be as much 3-4% in the monopole on scales of 0.05 < k < 0.3 h/Mpc for 10^{13} M_sun/h haloes. We find that these deviations can be mitigated to the sub-percent level in the both the monopole and quadrupole up to k ~ 0.3 h/Mpc if the baryon corrected halo masses are used to calculate the redshift space power spectra. Finally, we use the cosmo-OWLS simulation suite to explore the changes in the redshift space power spectra with different feedback prescriptions, finding that there is a maximum of 15-20% difference between the redshift space monopole and quadrupole with and without baryons at k ~1-2 h/Mpc within these models., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figues, replaced with accepted version, fixed typos

Cosmology is poised to measure the neutrino mass sum $M_\nu$ and has identified several smaller-scale observables sensitive to neutrinos, necessitating accurate predictions of neutrino clustering over a wide range of length scales. The FlowsForTheMasses non-linear perturbation theory for the massive neutrino power spectrum, $\Delta^2_\nu(k)$, agrees with its companion N-body simulation at the $10\%-15\%$ level for $k \leq 1~h/$Mpc. Building upon the Mira-Titan IV emulator for the cold matter, we use FlowsForTheMasses to construct an emulator for $\Delta^2_\nu(k)$ covering a large range of cosmological parameters and neutrino fractions $\Omega_{\nu,0} h^2 \leq 0.01$, which corresponds to $M_\nu \leq 0.93$~eV. Consistent with FlowsForTheMasses at the $3.5\%$ level, it returns a power spectrum in milliseconds. Ranking the neutrinos by initial momenta, we also emulate the power spectra of momentum deciles, providing information about their perturbed distribution function. Comparing a $M_\nu=0.15$~eV model to a wide range of N-body simulation methods, we find agreement to $3\%$ for $k \leq 3 k_\mathrm{FS} = 0.17~h/$Mpc and to $19\%$ for $k \leq 0.4~h/$Mpc. We find that the enhancement factor, the ratio of $\Delta^2_\nu(k)$ to its linear-response equivalent, is most strongly correlated with $\Omega_{\nu,0} h^2$, and also with the clustering amplitude $\sigma_8$. Furthermore, non-linearities enhance the free-streaming-limit scaling $\partial \log(\Delta^2_\nu / \Delta^2_{\rm m}) / \partial \log(M_\nu)$ beyond its linear value of 4, increasing the $M_\nu$-sensitivity of the small-scale neutrino density., Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables. Emulator code available at: https://github.com/upadhye/Cosmic-Enu

A number of recent studies have found evidence for a tension between observations of large-scale structure (LSS) and the predictions of the standard model of cosmology with the cosmological parameters fit to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The origin of this '$S_8$ tension' remains unclear, but possibilities include new physics beyond the standard model, unaccounted for systematic errors in the observational measurements and/or uncertainties in the role that baryons play. Here we carefully examine the latter possibility using the new FLAMINGO suite of large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. We project the simulations onto observable harmonic space and compare with observational measurements of the power and cross-power spectra of cosmic shear, CMB lensing, and the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. We explore the dependence of the predictions on box size and resolution, cosmological parameters including the neutrino mass, and the efficiency and nature of baryonic 'feedback'. Despite the wide range of astrophysical behaviours simulated, we find that baryonic effects are not sufficiently large to remove the $S_8$ tension. Consistent with recent studies, we find the CMB lensing power spectrum is in excellent agreement with the standard model, whilst the cosmic shear power spectrum, tSZ effect power spectrum, and the cross-spectra between shear, CMB lensing, and the tSZ effect are all in varying degrees of tension with the CMB-specified standard model. These results suggest that some mechanism is required to slow the growth of fluctuations at late times and/or on non-linear scales, but that it is unlikely that baryon physics is driving this modification., Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS, accepted with minor revisions

Weak lensing of the cosmic microwave background is rapidly emerging as a powerful probe of neutrinos, dark energy, and new physics. We present a fast computation of the non-linear CMB lensing power spectrum which combines non-linear perturbation theory at early times with power spectrum emulation using cosmological simulations at late times. Comparing our calculation with lightcones from the FLAMINGO 5.6 Gpc cube dark-matter-only simulation, we confirm its accuracy to 1% (2%) up to multipoles L = 3000 (L = 5000) for a nuLambdaCDM cosmology consistent with current data. Clustering suppression due to small-scale baryonic phenomena such as feedback from active galactic nuclei can reduce the lensing power by of order 10%. To our perturbation theory and emulator-based calculation we add SP(k), a new fitting function for this suppression, and confirm its accuracy compared to the FLAMINGO hydrodynamic simulations to 4% at L = 5000, with similar accuracy for massive neutrino models. We further demonstrate that scale-dependent suppression due to neutrinos and baryons approximately factorize, implying that a careful treatment of baryonic feedback can limit biasing neutrino mass constraints., Comment: 14 pages, 21 figures, 1 table

To fully take advantage of the data provided by large-scale structure surveys, we need to quantify the potential impact of baryonic effects, such as feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation, on cosmological observables. In simulations, feedback processes originate on scales that remain unresolved. Therefore, they need to be sourced via subgrid models that contain free parameters. We use machine learning to calibrate the AGN and stellar feedback models for the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Using Gaussian process emulators trained on Latin hypercubes of 32 smaller-volume simulations, we model how the galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions change as a function of the subgrid parameters. The emulators are then fit to observational data, allowing for the inclusion of potential observational biases. We apply our method to the three different FLAMINGO resolutions, spanning a factor of 64 in particle mass, recovering the observed relations within the respective resolved mass ranges. We also use the emulators, which link changes in subgrid parameters to changes in observables, to find models that skirt or exceed the observationally allowed range for cluster gas fractions and the stellar mass function. Our method enables us to define model variations in terms of the data that they are calibrated to rather than the values of specific subgrid parameters. This approach is useful, because subgrid parameters are typically not directly linked to particular observables, and predictions for a specific observable are influenced by multiple subgrid parameters., Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures (Including the appendix). Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Minor changes w.r.t. version 1. For visualisations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

We introduce the Virgo Consortium's FLAMINGO suite of hydrodynamical simulations for cosmology and galaxy cluster physics. To ensure the simulations are sufficiently realistic for studies of large-scale structure, the subgrid prescriptions for stellar and AGN feedback are calibrated to the observed low-redshift galaxy stellar mass function and cluster gas fractions. The calibration is performed using machine learning, separately for three resolutions. This approach enables specification of the model by the observables to which they are calibrated. The calibration accounts for a number of potential observational biases and for random errors in the observed stellar masses. The two most demanding simulations have box sizes of 1.0 and 2.8 Gpc and baryonic particle masses of $1\times10^8$ and $1\times10^9 \text{M}_\odot$, respectively. For the latter resolution the suite includes 12 model variations in a 1 Gpc box. There are 8 variations at fixed cosmology, including shifts in the stellar mass function and/or the cluster gas fractions to which we calibrate, and two alternative implementations of AGN feedback (thermal or jets). The remaining 4 variations use the unmodified calibration data but different cosmologies, including different neutrino masses. The 2.8 Gpc simulation follows $3\times10^{11}$ particles, making it the largest ever hydrodynamical simulation run to $z=0$. Lightcone output is produced on-the-fly for up to 8 different observers. We investigate numerical convergence, show that the simulations reproduce the calibration data, and compare with a number of galaxy, cluster, and large-scale structure observations, finding very good agreement with the data for converged predictions. Finally, by comparing hydrodynamical and `dark-matter-only' simulations, we confirm that baryonic effects can suppress the halo mass function and the matter power spectrum by up to $\approx20$ per cent., Comment: 44 pages, 23 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. V3 includes changes made in published version: jet simulations were redone to fix a bug, but the differences are nearly invisible. For visualizations, see the FLAMINGO website at https://flamingo.strw.leidenuniv.nl/

Upcoming large-scale structure surveys will measure the matter power spectrum to approximately percent level accuracy with the aim of searching for evidence for new physics beyond the standard model of cosmology. In order to avoid biasing our conclusions, the theoretical predictions need to be at least as accurate as the measurements for a given choice of cosmological parameters. However, recent theoretical work has shown that complex physical processes associated with galaxy formation (particularly energetic feedback processes associated with stars and especially supermassive black holes) can alter the predictions by many times larger than the required accuracy. Here we present $\texttt{SP(k)}$, a model for the effects of baryon physics on the non-linear matter power spectrum based on a new large suite of hydrodynamical simulations. Specifically, the ANTILLES suite consists of 400 simulations spanning a very wide range of the "feedback landscape" and show that the effects of baryons on the matter power spectrum can be understood at approaching the percent level in terms of the mean baryon fraction of haloes, at scales of up to $k \lesssim 10 \, h \, $Mpc$^{-1}$ and redshifts up to $z=3$. For the range of scales and redshifts that will be probed by forthcoming cosmic shear measurements, most of the effects are driven by galaxy group-mass haloes ($M \sim 10^{13-14}$ M$_\odot$). We present a simple Python implementation of our model, available at $\href{https://github.com/jemme07/pyspk}{\mathrm{https{:}//github.com/jemme07/pyspk}}$, which can be used to incorporate baryon effects in standard gravity-only predictions, allowing for marginalisation over baryon physics within cosmological pipelines., Comment: Refereed version accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS). 16 pages, 11 figures

Recent observations have shown that the environmental quenching of galaxies at z ~ 1 is qualitatively different to that in the local Universe. However, the physical origin of these differences has not yet been elucidated. In addition, while low-redshift comparisons between observed environmental trends and the predictions of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations are now routine, there have been relatively few comparisons at higher redshifts to date. Here we confront three state-of-the-art suites of simulations (BAHAMAS+MACSIS, EAGLE+Hydrangea, IllustrisTNG) with state-of-the-art observations of the field and cluster environments from the COSMOS/UltraVISTA and GOGREEN surveys, respectively, at z ~ 1 to assess the realism of the simulations and gain insight into the evolution of environmental quenching. We show that while the simulations generally reproduce the stellar content and the stellar mass functions of quiescent and star-forming galaxies in the field, all the simulations struggle to capture the observed quenching of satellites in the cluster environment, in that they are overly efficient at quenching low-mass satellites. Furthermore, two of the suites do not sufficiently quench the highest-mass galaxies in clusters, perhaps a result of insufficient feedback from AGN. The origin of the discrepancy at low stellar masses (Mstar <~ 1E10 Msun), which is present in all the simulations in spite of large differences in resolution, feedback implementations, and hydrodynamical solvers, is unclear. The next generation of simulations, which will push to significantly higher resolution and also include explicit modelling of the cold interstellar medium, may help to shed light on the low-mass tension., Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, resubmitted to MNRAS following minor revisions

The radial acceleration relation (RAR) represents a tight empirical relation between the inferred total and baryonic centripetal accelerations, $g_{\rm{tot}}=GM_{\rm{tot}}(

We present redshift-zero synthetic dust-aware observations for the 45 Milky Way-mass simulated galaxies of the ARTEMIS project, calculated with the SKIRT radiative transfer code. The post-processing procedure includes components for star-forming regions, stellar sources, and diffuse dust. We produce and publicly release realistic high-resolution images for 50 commonly-used broadband filters from ultraviolet to sub-millimetre wavelengths and for 18 different viewing angles. We compare the simulated ARTEMIS galaxies to observed galaxies in the DustPedia database with similar stellar mass and star formation rate, and to synthetic observations of the simulated galaxies of the Auriga project produced in previous work using a similar post-processing technique. In all cases, global galaxy properties are derived using SED fitting. We find that, similar to Auriga, the post-processed ARTEMIS galaxies generally reproduce the observed scaling relations for global fluxes and physical properties, although dust extinction at FUV/UV wavelengths is underestimated and representative dust temperatures are lower than observed. At a resolved scale, we compare multi-wavelength non-parametric morphological properties of selected disc galaxies across the data sets. We find that the ARTEMIS galaxies largely reproduce the observed morphological trends as a function of wavelength, although they appear to be more clumpy and less symmetrical than observed. We note that the ARTEMIS and Auriga galaxies occupy adjacent regions in the specific star formation versus stellar mass plane, so that the synthetic observation data sets supplement each other., Comment: Accepted for publication by MNRAS

The power spectrum has been a workhorse for cosmological studies of large-scale structure. However, the present-day matter distribution is highly non-Gaussian and significant cosmological information is also contained in higher-order correlation functions. Meanwhile, baryon physics (particularly AGN feedback) has previously been shown to strongly affect the two-point statistics but there has been limited exploration of its effects on higher-order functions to date. Here we use the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to explore the effects of baryon physics and massive neutrinos on the halo bispectrum. In contrast to matter clustering which is suppressed by baryon physics, we find that the halo clustering is typically enhanced. The strength of the effect and the scale over which it extends depends on how haloes are selected. On small scales (k > 1 $h$ Mpc$^{-1}$, dominated by satellites of groups/clusters), we find that the bispectrum is highly sensitive to the efficiency of star formation and feedback, making it an excellent testing ground for galaxy formation models. We show that the effects of feedback and the effects of massive neutrinos are largely separable (independent of each other) and that massive neutrinos strongly suppress the halo bispectrum on virtually all scales up to the free-streaming length (apart from the smallest scales, where baryon physics dominates). The strong sensitivity of the bispectrum to neutrinos on the largest scales and galaxy formation physics on the smallest scales bodes well for upcoming precision measurements from the next generation of wide-field surveys., Comment: 13 pages, 6+3 figures. Published in MNRAS

We present measurements of the intrinsic alignments (IAs) of the star-forming gas of galaxies in the EAGLE simulations. Radio continuum imaging of this gas enables cosmic shear measurements complementary to optical surveys. We measure the orientation of star-forming gas with respect to the direction to, and orientation of, neighbouring galaxies. Star-forming gas exhibits a preferentially radial orientation-direction alignment that is a decreasing function of galaxy pair separation, but remains significant to $\gtrsim 1$ Mpc at $z=0$. The alignment is qualitatively similar to that exhibited by the stars, but is weaker at fixed separation. Pairs of galaxies hosted by more massive subhaloes exhibit stronger alignment at fixed separation, but the strong alignment of close pairs is dominated by ${\sim}L^\star$ galaxies and their satellites. At fixed comoving separation, the radial alignment is stronger at higher redshift. The orientation-orientation alignment is consistent with random at all separations, despite subhaloes exhibiting preferential parallel minor axis alignment. The weaker IA of star-forming gas than for stars stems from the former's tendency to be less well aligned with the dark matter structure of galaxies than the latter, and implies that the systematic uncertainty due to IA may be less severe in radio continuum weak lensing surveys than in optical counterparts. Alignment models equating the orientation of star-forming gas discs to that of stellar discs or the DM structure of host subhaloes will therefore overestimate the impact of IAs on radio continuum cosmic shear measurements., Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures. Paper submitted to MNRAS

Relativistic jets from AGN have a wide range of impacts on galaxy groups and clusters and are key for understanding their formation and physical properties. However, this non-gravitational process is not well understood. Galaxy groups with shallow gravitational potentials are ideal laboratories to study and constrain the AGN feedback model. We studied hot gas in ~66,000 SDSS LRG halos with an average halo mass of 3 x 10^13 Msun using the Planck tSZ map. We have detected their average tSZ radial profile at ~17 sigma and compared it with the cosmo-OWLS cosmological hydrodynamical simulations with different AGN feedback models. The best agreement has been obtained for the AGN 8.0 model in the simulations. We have also compared our measured tSZ profile with the prediction from the universal pressure profile assuming the self-similar relation and found them consistent if the model accounts for the clustering of neighboring haloes via a two-halo term., Comment: To appear in the Proceedings of the International Conference entitled "mm Universe @ NIKA2", Rome (Italy), June 2021, EPJ Web of conferences

Galaxy cluster masses, rich with cosmological information, can be estimated from internal dark matter (DM) velocity dispersions, which in turn can be observationally inferred from satellite galaxy velocities. However, galaxies are biased tracers of the DM, and the bias can vary over host halo and galaxy properties as well as time. We precisely calibrate the velocity bias, b_v -- defined as the ratio of galaxy and DM velocity dispersions -- as a function of redshift, host halo mass, and galaxy stellar mass threshold (Mstarsat), for massive halos (M200c > 1e13.5 msun) from five cosmological simulations: IllustrisTNG, Magneticum, Bahamas + Macsis, The Three Hundred Project, and MultiDark Planck-2. We first compare scaling relations for galaxy and DM velocity dispersion across simulations; the former is estimated using a new ensemble velocity likelihood method that is unbiased for low galaxy counts per halo, while the latter uses a local linear regression. The simulations show consistent trends of b_v increasing with M200c and decreasing with redshift and Mstarsat. The ensemble-estimated theoretical uncertainty in b_v is 2-3% but becomes percent-level when considering only the three highest resolution simulations. We update the mass-richness normalization previously estimated by Farahi et al. (2016) for an SDSS redMaPPer cluster sample. The improved accuracy of our b_v estimates reduces the mass normalization uncertainty from 22% to 8%, demonstrating that dynamical estimation techniques can be competitive with weak lensing in calibrating population mean masses. We discuss necessary steps for further improving this precision. Our estimates for b_v(M200c, Mstarsat, z) are made publicly available., Comment: [v1]: 8 figures, 14 pages in main text + 5 figures, 3 pages in Appendix. [v2]: Minor text edits. Accepted in MNRAS

It is well established from cosmological simulations that dark matter haloes are not precisely self-similar and an additional parameter, beyond their concentration, is required to accurately describe their spherically-averaged mass density profiles. We present, for the first time, a model to consistently predict both halo concentration, $c$, and this additional `shape' parameter, $\alpha$, for a halo of given mass and redshift for a specified cosmology. Following recent studies, we recast the dependency on mass, redshift, and cosmology to a dependence on `peak height'. We show that, when adopting the standard definition of peak height, which employs the so-called spherical top hat (STH) window function, the concentration--peak height relation has a strong residual dependence on cosmology (i.e., it is not uniquely determined by peak height), whereas the $\alpha$--peak height relation is approximately universal when employing the STH window function. Given the freedom in the choice of window function, we explore a simple modification of the STH function, constraining its form so that it produces universal relations for concentration and $\alpha$ as a function of peak height using a large suite of cosmological simulations. It is found that universal relations for the two density profile parameters can indeed be derived and that these parameters are set by the linear power spectrum, $P(k)$, filtered on different scales. We show that the results of this work generalise to any (reasonable) combination of $P(k)$ and background expansion history, $H(z)$, resulting in accurate predictions of the density profiles of dark matter haloes for a wide range of cosmologies., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, accepted to MNRAS

Using the ARTEMIS set of 45 high-resolution cosmological simulations, we investigate a range of merger-induced dynamical transformations of Milky Way-like galaxies. We first identify populations of accreted stars on highly radial orbits, similar to the 'Gaia Sausage' in the Milky Way. We show that $\approx1/3$ of the ARTEMIS galaxies contain a similar feature, and confirm that they usually comprise stellar debris from the most massive accreted satellite. Selecting 15 galaxies with discs at the present-day, we study their changes around the times of the GS-like mergers. Dark matter haloes of many of these exhibit global changes in shape and orientation, with almost half becoming significantly more spherical when the mergers occur. Focusing on the galaxies themselves, we find that 4/15 have stellar discs which experience large changes in the orientation of their angular momentum (AM) axes, at rates of up to $\sim60$ degrees Gyr$^{-1}$. By calculating the orbital angular momentum axes of the satellites before they are accreted, we show that there is a tendency for the disc's AM to become more aligned with this axis after the merger. We also investigate the origin of in situ retrograde stars, analogous to the 'Splash' in the Milky Way. Tracing them back to earlier snapshots, we demonstrate that they were often disrupted onto their extreme orbits by multiple early mergers. We also find that the total mass of these stars outside the central regions positively correlates with the total accreted stellar mass., Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures, published in MNRAS

We investigate the constraining power of forthcoming Stage-IV weak lensing surveys (Euclid, LSST, and NGRST) for extensions to the LCDM model on small scales, via their impact on the cosmic shear power spectrum. We use high-resolution cosmological simulations to calculate how warm dark matter (WDM), self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) and a running of the spectral index affect the non-linear matter power spectrum, P(k), as a function of scale and redshift. We evaluate the cosmological constraining power using synthetic weak lensing observations derived from these power spectra and that take into account the anticipated source densities, shape noise and cosmic variance errors of upcoming surveys. We show that upcoming Stage-IV surveys will be able to place useful, independent constraints on both WDM models (ruling out models with a particle mass of < 0.5 keV) and SIDM models (ruling out models with a velocity-independent cross-section of > 10 cm^2 g^-1) through their effects on the small-scale cosmic shear power spectrum. Similarly, they will be able to strongly constrain cosmologies with a running spectral index. Finally, we explore the error associated with the cosmic shear cross-spectrum between tomographic bins, finding that it can be significantly affected by Poisson noise (the standard assumption is that the Poisson noise cancels between tomographic bins). We provide a new analytic form for the error on the cross-spectrum which accurately captures this effect., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

The halo model formalism is widely adopted in cosmological studies for predicting the growth of large-scale structure in the Universe. However, to date there have been relatively few direct comparisons of the halo model with more accurate (but much more computationally expensive) cosmological simulations. We test the accuracy of the halo model in reproducing the non-linear matter power spectrum, P(k), when the main inputs of the halo model (specifically the matter density profiles, halo mass function, and linear bias) are taken directly from the BAHAMAS simulations and we assess how well the halo model reproduces P(k) from the same simulations. We show that the halo model generally reproduces P(k) in the deep non-linear regime (1-halo) to typically a few percent accuracy, but struggles to reproduce (approx. 15% error) P(k) at intermediate scales of 0.1 < k [h/ Mpc] < 3 at z=0, marking the transition between the 1-halo and 2-halo terms. We show that the magnitude of this error is a strong function of the halo mass definition (through its effects on radial extent of haloes) and of redshift. Furthermore, we test the accuracy of the halo model in recovering the relative impact of baryons on P(k). We show that the systematic errors in recovering the absolute P(k) largely cancel when considering the relative impact of baryons. This suggests that the halo model can make precise predictions for the baryonic suppression, offering a fast and accurate way to adjust collisionless matter power spectra for the presence of baryons and associated processes., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

The vast majority of low-mass satellite galaxies around the Milky Way and M31 appear virtually devoid of cool gas and show no signs of recent or ongoing star formation. Cosmological simulations demonstrate that such quenching is expected and is due to the harsh environmental conditions that satellites face when joining the Local Group (LG). However, recent observations of Milky Way analogues in the SAGA survey present a very different picture, showing the majority of observed satellites to be actively forming stars, calling into question the realism of current simulations and the typicality of the LG. Here we use the ARTEMIS suite of high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to carry out a careful comparison with observations of dwarf satellites in the LG, SAGA, and the Local Volume (LV) survey. We show that differences between SAGA and the LG and LV surveys, as well as between SAGA and the ARTEMIS simulations, can be strongly reduced by considering differences in the host mass distributions and (more importantly) observational selection effects, specifically that low-mass satellites which have only recently been accreted are more likely to be star-forming, have a higher optical surface brightness, and are therefore more likely to be included in the SAGA survey. This picture is confirmed using data from the deeper LV survey, which shows pronounced quenching at low masses, in accordance with the predictions of LCDM-based simulations., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, MNRAS, accepted for publication. Host mass rescaling corrected and additional discussion of observational selection effects included

We use photometric redshifts and statistical background subtraction to measure stellar mass functions in galaxy group-mass ($4.5-8\times10^{13}~\mathrm{M}_\odot$) haloes at $11$., Comment: Accepted July 6, 2021, MNRAS

Galaxy groups are more than an intermediate scale between clusters and halos hosting individual galaxies, they are crucial laboratories capable of testing a range of astrophysics from how galaxies form and evolve to large scale structure (LSS) statistics for cosmology. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of groups on various scales offer an unparalleled testing ground for astrophysical theories. Widely used cosmological simulations with ~(100 Mpc)^3 volumes contain statistical samples of groups that provide important tests of galaxy evolution influenced by environmental processes. Larger volumes capable of reproducing LSS while following the redistribution of baryons by cooling and feedback are essential tools necessary to constrain cosmological parameters. Higher resolution simulations can currently model satellite interactions, the processing of cool (T~10^4 K) multi-phase gas, and non-thermal physics including turbulence, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray transport. We review simulation results regarding the gas and stellar contents of groups, cooling flows and the relation to the central galaxy, the formation and processing of multi-phase gas, satellite interactions with the intragroup medium, and the impact of groups for cosmological parameter estimation. Cosmological simulations provide evolutionarily consistent predictions of these observationally difficult-to-define objects, and have untapped potential to accurately model their gaseous, stellar, and dark matter distributions., Comment: 61 pages, 18 figures, and 2 tables. This review article is part of the special issue "The Physical Properties of the Groups of Galaxies", edited by L. Lovisari and S. Ettori. Published in MDPI - Universe: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/universe/special_issues/PPGG

In the context of forthcoming galaxy surveys, to ensure unbiased constraints on cosmology and gravity when using non-linear structure information, percent-level accuracy is required when modelling the power spectrum. This calls for frameworks that can accurately capture the relevant physical effects, while allowing for deviations from $\Lambda$CDM. Massive neutrino and baryonic physics are two of the most relevant such effects. We present an integration of the halo model reaction frameworks for massive neutrinos and beyond-$\Lambda$CDM cosmologies. The integrated halo model reaction, combined with a pseudo power spectrum modelled by HMCode2020 is then compared against $N$-body simulations that include both massive neutrinos and an $f(R)$ modification to gravity. We find that the framework is 4% accurate down to at least $k\approx 3 \, h/{\rm Mpc}$ for a modification to gravity of $|f_{\rm R0}|\leq 10^{-5}$ and for the total neutrino mass $M_\nu \equiv \sum m_\nu \leq 0.15$ eV. We also find that the framework is 4% consistent with EuclidEmulator2 as well as the Bacco emulator for \B{most of the considered} $\nu w$CDM cosmologies down to at least $k \approx 3 \, h$/Mpc. Finally, we compare against hydrodynamical simulations employing HMCode2020's baryonic feedback modelling on top of the halo model reaction. For $\nu \Lambda$CDM cosmologies we find 2% accuracy for $M_\nu \leq 0.48$eV down to at least $k\approx 5h$/Mpc. Similar accuracy is found when comparing to $\nu w$CDM hydrodynamical simulations with $M_\nu = 0.06$eV. This offers the first non-linear, theoretically general means of accurately including massive neutrinos for beyond-$\Lambda$CDM cosmologies, and further suggests that baryonic, massive neutrino and dark energy physics can be reliably modelled independently., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures. MNRAS accepted version. Download ReACT: https://github.com/nebblu/ReACT/tree/react_with_neutrinos

The formation and evolution of galaxies is known to be sensitive to tidal processes leading to intrinsic correlations between their shapes and orientations. Such correlations can be measured to high significance today, suggesting that cosmological information can be extracted from them. Among the most pressing questions in particle physics and cosmology is the nature of dark matter. If dark matter is self-interacting, it can leave an imprint on galaxy shapes. In this work, we investigate whether self-interactions can produce a long-lasting imprint on intrinsic galaxy shape correlations. We investigate this observable at low redshift ($z<0.4$) using a state-of-the-art suite of cosmological hydro-dynamical simulations where the dark matter model is varied. We find that dark matter self-interactions induce a mass dependent suppression in the intrinsic alignment signal by up to 50\% out to ten's of mega-parsecs, showing that self-interactions can impact structure outside the very core of clusters. We find evidence that self-interactions have a scale-dependent impact on the intrinsic alignment signal that is sufficiently different from signatures introduced by differing baryonic physics prescriptions, suggesting that it is detectable with up-coming all-sky surveys., Comment: Accepted MNRAS

We present measurements of the morphology of star-forming gas in galaxies from the EAGLE simulations, and its alignment relative to stars and dark matter (DM). Imaging of such gas in the radio continuum enables weak lensing experiments that complement traditional optical approaches. Star-forming gas is typically more flattened than its associated stars and DM, particularly for present-day subhaloes of total mass $\sim$$10^{ 12-12.5} \mathrm{M_{ \odot}}$, which preferentially host star-forming galaxies with rotationally-supported stellar discs. Such systems have oblate, spheroidal star-forming gas distributions, but in both less- and more-massive subhaloes the distributions tend to be prolate, and its morphology correlates positively and significantly with that of its host galaxy's stars, both in terms of sphericity and triaxiality. The minor axis of star-forming gas most commonly aligns with the minor axis of its host subhalo's DM, but often aligns more closely with one of the other two principal axes of the DM distribution in prolate subhaloes. Star-forming gas aligns with DM less strongly than is the case for stars, but its morphological minor axis aligns closely with its kinematic axis, affording a route to observational identification of the unsheared morphological axis. The projected ellipticities of star-forming gas in EAGLE are consistent with shapes inferred from high-fidelity radio continuum images, and they exhibit greater shape noise than is the case for images of the stars, owing to the greater characteristic flattening of star-forming gas with respect to stars., Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures. Published in MNRAS

The recent advent of deep observational surveys of local Milky Way `analogues' and their satellite populations allows us to place the Milky Way in a broader cosmological context and to test models of galaxy formation on small scales. In the present study, we use the LCDM-based ARTEMIS suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations containing 45 Milky Way analogue host haloes to make comparisons to the observed satellite luminosity functions, radial distribution functions, and abundance scaling relations from the recent Local Volume and SAGA observational surveys, in addition to the Milky Way and M31. We find that, contrary to some previous claims, LCDM-based simulations can successfully and simultaneously capture the mean trends and the diversity in both the observed luminosity and radial distribution functions of Milky Way analogues once important observational selection criteria are factored in. Furthermore, we show that, at fixed halo mass, the concentration of the simulated satellite radial distribution is partly set by that of the underlying smooth dark matter halo, although stochasticity due to the finite number of satellites is the dominant driver of scatter in the radial distribution of satellites at fixed halo mass., Comment: 19 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS. Improved treatment of observational selection effects

If properly calibrated, the shapes of galaxy clusters can be used to investigate many physical processes: from feedback and quenching of star formation, to the nature of dark matter. Theorists frequently measure shapes using moments of inertia of simulated particles'. We instead create mock (optical, X-ray, strong- and weak-lensing) observations of the twenty-two most massive ($\sim10^{14.7}\,M_\odot$) relaxed clusters in the BAHAMAS simulations. We find that observable measures of shape are rounder. Even when moments of inertia are projected into 2D and evaluated at matched radius, they overestimate ellipticity by 56\% (compared to observable strong lensing) and 430\% (compared to observable weak lensing). Therefore, we propose matchable quantities and test them using observations of eight relaxed clusters from the {\emph Hubble Space Telescope} and {\emph Chandra X-Ray Observatory}. We also release our HST data reduction and lensing analysis software to the community. In real clusters, the ellipticity and orientation angle at all radii are strongly correlated. In simulated clusters, the ellipticity of inner ($

We explore the impact of baryonic effects (namely stellar and AGN feedback) on the moments of pairwise velocity using the Illustris-TNG, EAGLE, cosmo-OWLS, and BAHAMAS suites of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. The assumption that the mean pairwise velocity of the gas component follows that of the dark matter is studied here at small separations, and we find that even at pair separations of 10-20 $h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$ there is a 4-5% velocity bias. At smaller separations, it gets larger with strength varying depending on the subgrid prescription. By isolating different physical processes, our findings suggest that the large scale velocity bias is mainly driven by stellar rather than AGN feedback. If unaccounted for, this velocity offset could possibly bias cosmological constraints from the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect in future cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys. Furthermore, we examine how the first and the second moment of the pairwise velocity are affected by both the baryonic and the neutrino free-streaming effects for both the matter and gas components. For both moments, we were able to disentangle the effects of baryonic processes from those of massive neutrinos; and below pair separations of 20 $h^{-1}\mathrm{Mpc}$, we find that these moments of the pairwise velocity decrease with increasing neutrino mass. Our work thus paves a way in which the pairwise velocity statistics can be utilised to constrain the summed mass of neutrinos from future CMB surveys and peculiar velocity surveys., Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in A&A

We study the star formation histories (SFHs) and mass-weighted ages of 331 UVJ-selected quiescent galaxies in 11 galaxy clusters and in the field at 11 has been driven by different physical processes than those at play at z=0., Comment: accepted Sept 7 2020, MNRAS

Dark matter (DM) direct detection experiments aim to place constraints on the DM--nucleon scattering cross-section and the DM particle mass. These constraints depend sensitively on the assumed local DM density and velocity distribution function. While astrophysical observations can inform the former (in a model-dependent way), the latter is not directly accessible with observations. Here we use the high-resolution ARTEMIS cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite of 42 Milky Way-mass halos to explore the spatial and kinematical distributions of the DM in the solar neighbourhood, and we examine how these quantities are influenced by substructures, baryons, the presence of dark discs, as well as general halo-to-halo scatter (cosmic variance). We also explore the accuracy of the standard Maxwellian approach for modelling the velocity distribution function. We find significant halo-to-halo scatter in the density and velocity functions which, if propagated through the standard halo model for predicting the DM detection limits, implies a significant scatter about the typically quoted limit. We also show that, in general, the Maxwellian approximation works relatively well for simulations that include the important gravitational effects of baryons, but is less accurate for collisionless (DM-only) simulations. Given the significant halo-to-halo scatter in quantities relevant for DM direct detection, we advocate propagating this source of uncertainty through in order to derive conservative DM detection limits., Comment: 37 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in JCAP

The standard model of cosmology, the LCDM model, robustly predicts the existence of a multitude of dark matter 'subhaloes' around galaxies like the Milky Way. A wide variety of observations have been proposed to look for the gravitational effects such subhaloes would induce in observable matter. Most of these approaches pertain to the stellar or cool gaseous phases of matter. Here we propose a new approach, which is to search for the perturbations that such dark subhaloes would source in the warm/hot circumgalactic medium (CGM) around normal galaxies. With a combination of analytic theory, carefully-controlled high-resolution idealised simulations, and full cosmological hydrodynamical simulations (the ARTEMIS simulations), we calculate the expected signal and how it depends on important physical parameters (subhalo mass, CGM temperature, and relative velocity). We find that dark subhaloes enhance both the local CGM temperature and density and, therefore, also the pressure. For the pressure and density, the fluctuations can vary in magnitude from tens of percent (for subhaloes with M_sub=10^10 Msun) to a few percent (for subhaloes with M_sub=10^8 Msun), although this depends strongly on the CGM temperature. The subhaloes also induce fluctuations in the velocity field ranging in magnitude from a few km/s up to 25 km/s. We propose that X-ray, Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, radio dispersion measure, and quasar absorption line observations can be used to measure these fluctuations and place constraints on the abundance and distribution of dark subhaloes, thereby placing constraints on the nature of dark matter., Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, to match the accepted MNRAS version (enhanced figures)

A large body of work based on collisionless cosmological N-body simulations going back over two decades has advanced the idea that collapsed dark matter haloes have simple and approximately universal forms for their mass density and pseudo-phase space density (PPSD) distributions. However, a general consensus on the physical origin of these results has not yet been reached. In the present study, we explore to what extent the apparent universality of these forms holds when we vary the initial conditions (i.e., the primordial power spectrum of density fluctuations) away from the standard CMB-normalised case, but still within the context of LCDM with a fixed expansion history. Using simulations that vary the initial amplitude and shape, we show that the structure of dark matter haloes retains a clear memory of the initial conditions. Specifically, increasing (lowering) the amplitude of fluctuations increases (decreases) the concentration of haloes and, if pushed far enough, the density profiles deviate strongly from the NFW form that is a good approximation for the CMB-normalised case. Although, an Einasto form works well. Rather than being universal, the slope of the PPSD (or pseudo-entropy) profile steepens (flattens) with increasing (decreasing) power spectrum amplitude and can exhibit a strong halo mass dependence. Our results therefore indicate that the previously identified universality of the structure of dark matter haloes is mostly a consequence of adopting a narrow range of (CMB-normalised) initial conditions for the simulations. Our new suite provides a useful test-bench against which physical models for the origin of halo structure can be validated., Comment: 20 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

In this work we consider the impact of spatially-uniform but time-varying dark energy (or `dynamical dark energy', DDE) on large-scale structure in a spatially flat universe, using large cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that form part of the BAHAMAS project. As DDE changes the expansion history of the universe, it impacts the growth of structure. We explore variations in DDE that are constrained to be consistent with the cosmic microwave background. We find that DDE can affect the clustering of matter and haloes at the ~10% level (suppressing it for so-called `freezing' models, while enhancing it for `thawing' models), which should be distinguishable with upcoming large-scale structure surveys. DDE cosmologies can also enhance or suppress the halo mass function (with respect to LCDM) over a wide range of halo masses. The internal properties of haloes are minimally affected by changes in DDE, however. Finally, we show that the impact of baryons and associated feedback processes is largely independent of the change in cosmology and that these processes can be modelled separately to typically better than a few percent accuracy, Comment: 18 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

It has been claimed that the standard model of cosmology (LCDM) cannot easily account for a number of observations on relatively small scales, motivating extensions to the standard model. Here we introduce a new suite of cosmological simulations that systematically explores three plausible extensions: warm dark matter, self-interacting dark matter, and a running of the scalar spectral index of density fluctuations. Current observational constraints are used to specify the additional parameters that come with these extensions. We examine a large range of observable metrics on small scales, including the halo mass function, density and circular velocity profiles, the abundance of satellite subhaloes, and halo concentrations. For any given metric, significant degeneracies can be present between the extensions. In detail, however, the different extensions have quantitatively distinct mass and radial dependencies, suggesting that a multi-probe approach over a range of scales can be used to break the degeneracies. We also demonstrate that the relative effects on the radial density profiles in the different extensions (compared to the standard model) are converged down to significantly smaller radii than are the absolute profiles. We compare the derived cosmological trends with the impact of baryonic physics using the EAGLE and ARTEMIS simulations. Significant degeneracies are also present between baryonic physics and cosmological variations (with both having similar magnitude effects on some observables). Given the inherent uncertainties both in the modelling of galaxy formation physics and extensions to LCDM, a systematic and simultaneous exploration of both is strongly warranted., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, to match MNRAS accepted version

We introduce the ARTEMIS simulations, a new set of 42 zoomed-in, high-resolution (baryon particle mass of ~ 2x10^4 Msun/h), hydrodynamical simulations of galaxies residing in haloes of Milky Way mass, simulated with the EAGLE galaxy formation code with re-calibrated stellar feedback. In this study, we analyse the structure of stellar haloes, specifically the mass density, surface brightness, metallicity, colour and age radial profiles, finding generally very good agreement with recent observations of local galaxies. The stellar density profiles are well fitted by broken power laws, with inner slopes of ~ -3, outer slopes of ~ -4 and break radii that are typically ~ 20-40 kpc. The break radii generally mark the transition between in situ formation and accretion-driven formation of the halo. The metallicity, colour and age profiles show mild large-scale gradients, particularly when spherically-averaged or viewed along the major axes. Along the minor axes, however, the profiles are nearly flat, in agreement with observations. Overall, the structural properties can be understood by two factors: that in situ stars dominate the inner regions and that they reside in a spatially-flattened distribution that is aligned with the disc. Observations targeting both the major and minor axes of galaxies are thus required to obtain a complete picture of stellar haloes., Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present results on the environmental dependence of the star-forming galaxy main sequence in 11 galaxy cluster fields at $1.0 < z < 1.5$ from the Gemini Observations of Galaxies in Rich Early Environments Survey (GOGREEN) survey. We use a homogeneously selected sample of field and cluster galaxies whose membership is derived from dynamical analysis. Using [OII]-derived star formation rates (SFRs), we find that cluster galaxies have suppressed SFRs at fixed stellar mass in comparison to their field counterparts by a factor of 1.4 $\pm$ 0.1 ($\sim3.3\sigma$) across the stellar mass range: $9.0 < \log(M_{*} /M_{\odot}) < 11.2$. We also find that this modest suppression in the cluster galaxy star-forming main sequence is mass and redshift dependent: the difference between cluster and field increases towards lower stellar masses and lower redshift. When comparing the distribution of cluster and field galaxy SFRs to the star-forming main sequence, we find an overall shift towards lower SFRs in the cluster population, and note the absence of a tail of high SFR galaxies as seen in the field. Given this observed suppression in the cluster galaxy star-forming main sequence, we explore the implications for several scenarios such as formation time differences between cluster and field galaxies, and environmentally-induced star formation quenching and associated timescales., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS on February 25 2020, appended erratum accepted in MNRAS on September 17 2020

We study stellar property statistics, including satellite galaxy occupation, of massive halo populations realized by three cosmological hydrodynamics simulations: BAHAMAS + MACSIS, TNG300 of the IllustrisTNG suite, and Magneticum Pathfinder. The simulations incorporate independent sub-grid methods for astrophysical processes with spatial resolutions ranging from $1.5$ to $6$ kpc, and each generates samples of $1000$ or more halos with $M_{\rm halo}> 10^{13.5} M_{\odot}$ at redshift $z=0$. Applying localized, linear regression (LLR), we extract halo mass-conditioned statistics (normalizations, slopes, and intrinsic covariance) for a three-element stellar property vector consisting of: i) $N_{sat}$, the number of satellite galaxies with stellar mass, $M_{\star, \rm sat} > 10^{10} M_{\odot}$ within radius $R_{200c}$ of the halo; ii) $M_{\star,\rm tot}$, the total stellar mass within that radius, and; iii) $M_{\star,\rm BCG}$, the gravitationally-bound stellar mass of the central galaxy within a $100 \, \rm kpc$ radius. Scaling parameters for the three properties with halo mass show mild differences among the simulations, in part due to numerical resolution, but there is qualitative agreement on property correlations, with halos having smaller than average central galaxies tending to also have smaller total stellar mass and a larger number of satellite galaxies. Marginalizing over total halo mass, we find the satellite galaxy kernel, $p(\ln N_{sat}\,|\,M_{\rm halo},z)$ to be consistently skewed left, with skewness parameter $\gamma = -0.91 \pm 0.02$, while that of $\ln M_{\star,\rm tot}$ is closer to log-normal, in all three simulations. The highest resolution simulations find $\gamma \simeq -0.8$ for the $z=0$ shape of $p(\ln M_{\star,\rm BCG}\,|\,M_{\rm halo},z)$ and also that the fractional scatter in total stellar mass is below $10\%$ in halos more massive than $10^{14.3} M_{\odot}$., Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures

We present a novel statistic to extract cosmological information in weak lensing data: the lensing minima. We also investigate the effect of baryons on the cosmological constraints from peak and minimum counts. Using the \texttt{MassiveNuS} simulations, we find that lensing minima are sensitive to non-Gaussian cosmological information and are complementary to the lensing power spectrum and peak counts. For an LSST-like survey, we obtain $95\%$ credible intervals from a combination of lensing minima and peaks that are significantly stronger than from the power spectrum alone, by $44\%$, $11\%$, and $63\%$ for the neutrino mass sum $\sum m_\nu$, matter density $\Omega_m$, and amplitude of fluctuation $A_s$, respectively. We explore the effect of baryonic processes on lensing minima and peaks using the hydrodynamical simulations \texttt{BAHAMAS} and \texttt{Osato15}. We find that ignoring baryonic effects would lead to strong ($\approx 4 \sigma$) biases in inferences from peak counts, but negligible ($\approx 0.5 \sigma$) for minimum counts, suggesting lensing minima are a potentially more robust tool against baryonic effects. Finally, we demonstrate that the biases can in principle be mitigated without significantly degrading cosmological constraints when we model and marginalize the baryonic effects., Comment: 12 pages and 11 figures

We present a weak-lensing analysis of X-ray galaxy groups and clusters selected from the XMM-XXL survey using the first-year data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program. Our joint weak-lensing and X-ray analysis focuses on 136 spectroscopically confirmed X-ray-selected systems at 0.031 < z < 1.033 detected in the 25sqdeg XXL-N region. We characterize the mass distributions of individual clusters and establish the concentration-mass (c-M) relation for the XXL sample, by accounting for selection bias and statistical effects, and marginalizing over the remaining mass calibration uncertainty. We find the mass-trend parameter of the c-M relation to be \beta = -0.07 \pm 0.28 and the normalization to be c200 = 4.8 \pm 1.0 (stat) \pm 0.8 (syst) at M200=10^{14}Msun/h and z = 0.3. We find no statistical evidence for redshift evolution. Our weak-lensing results are in excellent agreement with dark-matter-only c-M relations calibrated for recent LCDM cosmologies. The level of intrinsic scatter in c200 is constrained as \sigma(\ln[c200]) < 24% (99.7% CL), which is smaller than predicted for the full population of LCDM halos. This is likely caused in part by the X-ray selection bias in terms of the relaxation state. We determine the temperature-mass (Tx-M500) relation for a subset of 105 XXL clusters that have both measured HSC lensing masses and X-ray temperatures. The resulting Tx-M500 relation is consistent with the self-similar prediction. Our Tx-M500 relation agrees with the XXL DR1 results at group scales, but has a slightly steeper mass trend, implying a smaller mass scale in the cluster regime. The overall offset in the Tx-M500 relation is at the $1.5\sigma$ level, corresponding to a mean mass offset of (34\pm 20)%. We also provide bias-corrected, weak-lensing-calibrated M200 and M500 mass estimates of individual XXL clusters based on their measured X-ray temperatures., Comment: Version matching the one published in ApJ. We recommend to use statistically corrected mass estimates (M200MT, M500MT) of Table 2 for a given individual cluster. One of two companion papers presenting initial HSC-XXL results (Mauro Sereno et al., arXiv:1912.02827)

Recent analyses of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the Lyman-alpha forest indicate a mild preference for a deviation from a power law primordial matter power spectrum (a so-called negative `running'). We use an extension to the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations to explore the effects that a running scalar spectral index has on large-scale structure (LSS), using Planck CMB constraints to initialize the simulations. We focus on 5 key statistics: i) the non-linear matter power spectrum ii) the halo mass function; iii) the halo two-point auto correlation function; iv) total mass halo density profiles; and v) the halo concentration-mass relation. In terms of the matter power spectrum, we find that a running scalar spectral index affects all k-scales examined in this study, with a negative (positive) running leading to an amplification (suppression) of power. These effects should be easily detectable with upcoming surveys such as LSST and Euclid. In the mass range sampled, a positive running leads to an increase in the mass of galaxy groups and clusters, with the favoured negative running leading to a decrease in mass of lower-mass (M <~ 10^13 M_solar) halos, but an increase for the most massive (M >~ 10^13 M_solar) halos. Changes in the mass are generally confined to 5-10% which, while not insignificant, cannot by itself reconcile the claimed tension between the primary CMB and cluster number counts. We find that running does not significantly affect the shapes of density profiles of matched halos, changing only their amplitude. Finally, we demonstrate that the observed effects on LSS due to a running scalar spectral index are separable from those of baryonic effects to typically a few percent precision., Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures, to match MNRAS accepted version

The observable properties of galaxies depend on both internal processes and the external environment. In terms of the environmental role, we still do not have a clear picture of the processes driving the transformation of galaxies. The use of proxies for environment (e.g., host halo mass, distance to the N^th nearest neighbour, etc.), as opposed to the real physical conditions (e.g., hot gas density) may bear some responsibility for this. Here we propose a new method that directly links galaxies to their local environments, by using spatial cross-correlations of galaxy catalogues with maps from large-scale structure surveys (e.g., thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich [tSZ] effect, diffuse X-ray emission, weak lensing of galaxies or the CMB). We focus here on the quenching of galaxies and its link to local hot gas properties. Maps of galaxy overdensity and quenched fraction excess are constructed from volume-limited SDSS catalogs, which are cross-correlated with tSZ effect and X-ray maps from Planck and ROSAT, respectively. Strong signals out to Mpc scales are detected for most cross-correlations and are compared to predictions from the EAGLE and BAHAMAS cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. The simulations successfully reproduce many, but not all, of the observed power spectra, with an indication that environmental quenching may be too efficient in the simulations. We demonstrate that the cross-correlations are sensitive to both the internal (e.g., AGN and stellar feedback) and external processes (e.g., ram pressure stripping, harassment, strangulation, etc.) responsible for quenching. The methods outlined in this paper can be adapted to other observables and, with upcoming surveys, will provide a stringent test of physical models for environmental transformation., Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, MNRAS, in press