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To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00832.x Byline: MARISSA F. McBRIDE (*[dagger]), KERRIE A. WILSON ([dagger]), MICHAEL BODE ([double dagger]), HUGH P. POSSINGHAM ([dagger]) Keywords: biodiversity hotspots; conservation planning; conservation resource allocation; decision theory; investment risk; Mediterranean Basin; optimization; socioeconomic uncertainty; systematic conservation assessment Abstract: Abstract: Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success. Abstract (Spanish): Incorporacion de los Efectos de la Incertidumbre Socioeconomica en la Definicion de Prioridades para la Inversion en Conservacion Resumen: La incertidumbre en la planificacion y los resultados de acciones de conservacion que no es considerada hace que los planes de conservacion sean vulnerables a cambios potenciales en condiciones futuras. Utilizamos un metodo basado en la teoria de decisiones para investigar los efectos de dos tipos de incertidumbre de inversion sobre la asignacion optima de recursos para la conservacion global para la adquisicion de tierras en la cuenca del Mediterraneo. Consideramos la incertidumbre sobre (1) si la inversion continuara y (2) si los activos de biodiversidad adquiridos son seguros, que denominamos incertidumbre de transaccion e incertidumbre de ejecucion respectivamente. Tambien desarrollamos y probamos la robustez de diferentes reglas generales para guiar la asignacion de recursos cuando existen estas fuentes de incertidumbre. En presencia de incertidumbre en la habilidad de inversion futura (incertidumbre de transaccion) la estrategia optima fue oportunista, lo que significa que la inversion prioritaria seria donde la incertidumbre sea mayor mientras que la inversion permanezca posible. Cuando habia probabilidad de que las inversiones fallarian (incertidumbre de ejecucion) la solucion optima se volvio una disyuntiva compleja entre los beneficios inmediatos de la biodiversidad por acciones en una region y la longevidad percibida de la inversion. En general, las regiones fueron priorizadas para inversion cunado tenian la mayor incertidumbre de ejecucion, aun si una region alternativa estaba muy amenazada o su biodiversidad tenia mayor valor. El mejor funcionamiento de las reglas generales cuando se considera la incertidumbre resalta la importancia de la incorporacion explicita de fuentes de incertidumbre de inversion y de la evaluacion de las inversiones de conservacion potenciales en el contexto de su exito a largo plazo. Author Affiliation: (*)Environmental Science, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia, emailm.mcbride@pgrad.unimelb.edu.au ([dagger])The Ecology Centre, School of Integrative Biology, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia ([double dagger])School of Physical Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia Article History: Paper submitted May 10, 2007; revised manuscript accepted July 13, 2007.

Abstract: Expert judgement informs a variety of important applications in conservation and natural resource management, including threatened species management, environmental impact assessment and structured decision‐making. However, expert judgements can be prone to contextual biases. Structured elicitation protocols mitigate these biases, and improve the accuracy and transparency of the resulting judgements. Despite this, the elicitation of expert judgement within conservation and natural resource management remains largely informal. We suggest this may be attributed to financial and practical constraints, which are not addressed by many existing structured elicitation protocols. In this paper, we advocate that structured elicitation protocols must be adopted when expert judgements are used to inform science. In order to motivate a wider adoption of structured elicitation protocols, we outline the IDEA protocol. The protocol improves the accuracy of expert judgements and includes several key steps which may be familiar to many conservation researchers, such as the four‐step elicitation, and a modified Delphi procedure (“Investigate,” “Discuss,” “Estimate” and “Aggregate”). It can also incorporate remote elicitation, making structured expert judgement accessible on a modest budget. The IDEA protocol has recently been outlined in the scientific literature; however, a detailed description has been missing. This paper fills that important gap by clearly outlining each of the steps required to prepare for and undertake an elicitation. While this paper focuses on the need for the IDEA protocol within conservation and natural resource management, the protocol (and the advice contained in this paper) is applicable to a broad range of scientific domains, as evidenced by its application to biosecurity, engineering and political forecasting. By clearly outlining the IDEA protocol, we hope that structured protocols will be more widely understood and adopted, resulting in improved judgements and increased transparency when expert judgement is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]