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Solar energetic particles (SEPs) can pose hazardous radiation risks to both humans and spacecraft electronics in space. Numerical modeling based on first principles offers valuable insights into the underlying physics of SEPs and provides synthetic observables for SEPs at any time and location in the inner heliosphere. In this work, we present a numerical scheme, which conserves the number of particles based on integral relations for Poisson brackets \citep{sokolov2023high}, to solve the kinetic equation for particle acceleration and transport processes. We implement this scheme within the Space Weather Modeling Framework, developed at the University of Michigan. In addition, we develop a new shock-capturing tool to study the coronal mass ejection-driven shock originating from the low solar corona. These methodological advancements are applied to conduct a comprehensive study of a historical SEP event on April 11, 2013. Multi-spacecraft observations, including SOHO, SDO, GOES and ACE near Earth, and STEREO-A/B, are used for model--data comparison and validation. We show synthetic observables, including extreme ultraviolet and white-light images, proton time--intensity profiles, and energy spectra, and discuss their differences and probable explanations compared to observations. Our simulation results demonstrate the application of the Poisson bracket scheme with a particle solver to simulating a historical SEP event. We also show the capability of extracting the complex shock surface using our shock-capturing tool and understand how the complex shock surface affects the particle acceleration process., Comment: 48 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories, but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best-suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain -- usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20-30 $R_{\odot}$. This means that particle acceleration at CME-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a "fixed source" of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA-Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is SEPMOD, a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD's fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere -- Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft., Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Space weather is a multidisciplinary research area connecting scientists from across heliophysics domains seeking a coherent understanding of our space environment that can also serve modern life and society's needs. COSPAR's ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) 'clusters' focus attention on different areas of space weather study while ensuring the coupled system is broadly addressed via regular communications and interactions. The ISWAT cluster "H3: Radiation Environment in the Heliosphere" (https://www.iswat-cospar.org/h3) has been working to provide a scientific platform to understand, characterize and predict the energetic particle radiation in the heliosphere with the practical goal of mitigating radiation risks associated with areospace activities, satellite industry and human space explorations. In particular, present approaches help us understand the physical phenomena at large, optimizing the output of multi-viewpoint observations and pushing current models to their limits. In this paper, we review the scientific aspects of the radiation environment in the heliosphere covering four different radiation types: Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), Ground Level Enhancement (GLE, a type of SEP events with energies high enough to trigger the enhancement of ground-level detectors), Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Anomalous Cosmic Rays (ACRs). We focus on related advances in the research community in the past 10-20 years and what we still lack in terms of understanding and predictive capabilities. Finally we also consider some recommendations related to the improvement of both observational and modeling capabilities in the field of space radiation environment.

(Shortened version) Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size and position, among others. Difficulties in determining input parameters for CME forecasting arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques. We explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the GCS reconstruction technique. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the ``true'' geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this as follows: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software, and 2) Using 3D MHD simulation data from the MAS code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. Increasing the number of viewpoints to two, the errors decreased by about 4$^\circ$ in latitude, 22$^\circ$ in longitude, 14$^\circ$ in tilt, and 10$^\circ$ in half-angle, pointing towards a need for at least two viewpoints. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: $\Delta\theta$ (latitude)=${6^\circ}$, $\Delta\phi$ (longitude)=${11^\circ}$, $\Delta\gamma$ (tilt)=${25^\circ}$, $\Delta\alpha$ (half-angle)=${10^\circ}$, $\Delta h$ (height)=$0.6 R_{\odot}$, and $\Delta\kappa$ (ratio)=$0.1$.

The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of "quieter" status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this paper, we report analysis of the origin, evolution, and heliospheric impact of a series of solar transient events that took place during the second half of August 2018, i.e. in the midst of the late declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. In particular, we focus on two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a following high-speed stream (HSS) on their way towards Earth and Mars. We find that the first CME impacted both planets, whilst the second caused a strong magnetic storm at Earth and went on to miss Mars, which nevertheless experienced space weather effects from the stream interacting region (SIR) preceding the HSS. Analysis of remote-sensing and in-situ data supported by heliospheric modelling suggests that CME--HSS interaction resulted in the second CME rotating and deflecting in interplanetary space, highlighting that accurately reproducing the ambient solar wind is crucial even during "simpler" solar minimum periods. Lastly, we discuss the upstream solar wind conditions and transient structures responsible for driving space weather effects at Earth and Mars., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Space Weather

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multi-point measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyse the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, i.e. the M4.4 flare of November 29 and the C7.4 flare of December 7. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ~60{\deg} east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360{\deg}" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modelling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble". We validate our results using in-situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here., Comment: 50 pages, 16 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Space Weather (v2 contains updated CCMC links after their website update)

We investigate the effects of the evolutionary processes in the internal magnetic structure of two interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) detected in situ between 2020 November 29 and December 1 by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). The sources of the ICMEs were observed remotely at the Sun in EUV and subsequently tracked to their coronal counterparts in white light. This period is of particular interest to the community since it has been identified as the first widespread solar energetic particle event of Solar Cycle 25. The distribution of various solar and heliospheric-dedicated spacecraft throughout the inner heliosphere during PSP observations of these large-scale magnetic structures enables a comprehensive analysis of the internal evolution and topology of such structures. By assembling different models and techniques, we identify the signatures of interaction between the two consecutive ICMEs and the implications for their internal structure. We use multispacecraft observations in combination with a remote-sensing forward modeling technique, numerical propagation models, and in-situ reconstruction techniques. The outcome, from the full reconciliations, demonstrates that the two CMEs are interacting in the vicinity of PSP. Thus, we identify the in-situ observations based on the physical processes that are associated with the interaction and collision of both CMEs. We also expand the flux rope modeling and in-situ reconstruction technique to incorporate the aging and expansion effects in a distorted internal magnetic structure and explore the implications of both effects in the magnetic configuration of the ICMEs.

The Saturn Kilometric Radiation (SKR) was observed for the first time during the flyby of Saturn by the Voyager spacecraft in 1980. These radio emissions, in the range of a few kHz to 1 MHz, are emitted by electrons travelling around auroral magnetic field lines. Their study is useful to understand the variability of a magnetosphere and its coupling with the solar wind. Previous studies have shown a strong correlation between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the SKR intensity. However, up to now, the effect of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) has never been examined in detail, due to the lack of SKR observations at the time when an ICME can be tracked and its different parts be clearly identified. In this study, we take advantage of a large ICME that reached Saturn mid-November 2014 (Witasse et al., 2017). At that time, the Cassini spacecraft was fortunately travelling within the solar wind for a few days, and provided a very accurate timing of the ICME structure. A survey of the Cassini data for the same period indicated a significant increase in the SKR emissions, showing a good correlation after the passage of the ICME shock with a delay of ~13 hours and after the magnetic cloud passage with a delay of 25-42 hours., Comment: Accepted for publication in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences

One of the grand challenges in heliophysics is the characterisation of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and evolution from eruption at the Sun through heliospheric propagation. At present, the main difficulties are related to the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and the lack of 3D in-situ measurements of the CME body in interplanetary space. Nevertheless, the evolution of a CME magnetic structure can be followed using a combination of multi-point remote-sensing observations and multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements as well as modelling. Accordingly, we present in this work the analysis of two CMEs that erupted from the Sun on 28 April 2012. We follow their eruption and early evolution using remote-sensing data, finding indications of CME--CME interaction, and then analyse their interplanetary counterpart(s) using in-situ measurements at Venus, Earth, and Saturn. We observe a seemingly single flux rope at all locations, but find possible signatures of interaction at Earth, where high-cadence plasma data are available. Reconstructions of the in-situ flux ropes provide almost identical results at Venus and Earth but show greater discrepancies at Saturn, suggesting that the CME was highly distorted and/or that further interaction with nearby solar wind structures took place before 10 AU. This work highlights the difficulties in connecting structures from the Sun to the outer heliosphere and demonstrates the importance of multi-spacecraft studies to achieve a deeper understanding of the magnetic configuration of CMEs., Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (a) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (b) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag-Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013-2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7$\pm$1.6 hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3$\pm$2.2 and 12.8$\pm$1.7 hours, respectively. ME for EAM was -1.4$\pm$2.7 hours in contrast with -9.7$\pm$3.4 and -6.1$\pm$3.3 hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU., Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, 4 Tables. Accepted in Solar Physics

On July 25 2017 a multi-step Forbush decrease (FD) with the remarkable total amplitude of more than 15\% was observed by MSL/RAD at Mars. We find that these particle signatures are related to very pronounced plasma and magnetic field signatures detected in situ by STEREO-A on July 24 2017, with a higher than average total magnetic field strength reaching more than 60 nT. In the observed time period STEREO-A was at a relatively small longitudinal separation (46 degrees) to Mars and both were located at the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. We analyse a number of multi-spacecraft and multi-instrument (both in situ and remote-sensing) observations, and employ modelling to understand these signatures. We find that the solar sources are two CMEs which erupted on July 23 2017 from the same source region on the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. Moreover, we find that the two CMEs interact non-uniformly, inhibiting the expansion of one of the CMEs in STEREO-A direction, whereas allowing it to expand more freely in the Mars direction. The interaction of the two CMEs with the ambient solar wind adds up to the complexity of the event, resulting in a long, sub-structured interplanetary disturbance at Mars, where different sub-structures correspond to different steps of the FD, adding-up to a globally large-amplitude FD., Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures

The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM). Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is $ME=-9.7$ hours, mean absolute error $MAE=14.3$ hours and root mean square error $RMSE=16.7$ hours, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors ($ME=-6.1$ hours, $MAE=12.8$ hours and $RMSE=14.4$ hours). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most probably owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

Large-scale coronal EUV dimmings, developing on timescaJes of minutes to hours in association with a flare or filament eruption, are known to exhibit a high correlation with coronal mass ejections. While most observations indicate that the decrease in emission in a dimming is due, at least in part, to a density decrease, a complete understanding requires us to examine at least four mechanisms that have been observed to cause darkened regions in the corona: 1) mass loss, 2) cooling, 3) heating, and 4) absorption/obscuration. Recent advances in automatic detection, observations with improved cadence and resolution, multi-viewpoint imaging, and spectroscopic studies have continued to shed light on dimming formation, evolution, and recovery. However, there are still some outstanding questions, including 1) Why do some CMEs show dimming and some do not? 2) What determines the location of a dimming? 3) What determines the temporal evolution of a dimming? 4) How does the post-eruption dimming connect to the ICME? 5) What is the relationship between dimmings and other CME-associated phenomena? The talk will emphasize the different formation mechanisms of dimmings and their relationship to CMEs and CME-associated phenomena.