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Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) are highly mobile, ecologically-important mesopredators that support multimillion-dollar fisheries along the western Atlantic Ocean. Understanding how blue crabs respond to coastal landscape change is integral to conservation and management, but such insights have been limited to a narrow range of habitats and spatial scales. We examined how local-scale to landscape-scale habitat characteristics and bathymetric features (channels and oceanic inlets) affect the relative abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE) of adult blue crabs across a > 33 km2 seagrass landscape in coastal Virginia, USA. We found that crab CPUE was 1.7 × higher in sparse (versus dense) seagrass, 2.4 × higher at sites farther from (versus nearer to) salt marshes, and unaffected by proximity to oyster reefs. The probability that a trapped crab was female was 5.1 × higher in sparse seagrass and 8 × higher near deep channels. The probability of a female crab being gravid was 2.8 × higher near seagrass meadow edges and 3.3 × higher near deep channels. Moreover, the likelihood of a gravid female having mature eggs was 16 × greater in sparse seagrass and 32 × greater near oceanic inlets. Overall, we discovered that adult blue crab CPUE is influenced by seagrass, salt marsh, and bathymetric features on scales from meters to kilometers, and that habitat associations depend on sex and reproductive stage. Hence, accelerating changes to coastal geomorphology and vegetation will likely alter the abundance and distribution of adult blue crabs, challenging marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based fisheries management.

\ₑprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/oik.08517; International audience; There is increasing interest in measuring ecological stability to understand how communities and ecosystems respond to broad-scale global changes. One of the most common approaches is to quantify the variation through time in community or ecosystem aggregate attributes (e.g. total biomass), referred to as aggregate variability. It is now widely recognized that aggregate variability represents only one aspect of communities and ecosystems, and compositional variability, the changes in the relative frequency of species in an assemblage, is equally important. Recent contributions have also begun to explore ecological stability at regional spatial scales, where interconnected local communities form metacommunities, a key concept in managing complex landscapes. However, the conceptual frameworks and measures of ecological stability in space have only focused on aggregate variability, leaving a conceptual gap. Here, we address this gap with a novel framework for quantifying the aggregate and compositional variability of communities and ecosystems through space and time. We demonstrate that the compositional variability of a metacommunity depends on the degree of spatial synchrony in compositional trajectories among local communities. We then provide a conceptual framework in which compositional variability of 1) the metacommunity through time and 2) among local communities combine into four archetype scenarios: spatial stasis (low/low), spatial synchrony (high/low), spatial asynchrony (high/high) and spatial compensation (low/high). We illustrate this framework based on numerical examples and a case study of a macroalgal metacommunity in which low spatial synchrony reduced variability in aggregate biomass at the metacommunity scale, while masking high spatial synchrony in compositional trajectories among local communities. Finally, we discuss the role of dispersal, environmental heterogeneity, species interactions and suggest future avenues. We believe this framework will be helpful for considering both aspects of variability simultaneously, which is important to better understand ecological stability in natural and complex landscapes in response to environmental changes.

Restoration of foundation species promises to reverse environmental degradation and return lost ecosystem services, but a lack of standardized evaluation across projects limits understanding of recovery, especially in marine systems. Oyster reefs are restored to reverse massive global declines and reclaim valuable ecosystem services, but the success of these projects has not been systematically and comprehensively quantified. We synthesized data on ecosystem services associated with oyster restoration from 245 pairs of restored and degraded reefs and 136 pairs of restored and reference reefs across 3500 km of U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines. On average, restoration was associated with a 21-fold increase in oyster production (mean log response ratio = 3.08 [95% confidence interval: 2.58-3.58]), 34-97% enhancement of habitat provisioning (mean community abundance = 0.51 [0.41-0.61], mean richness = 0.29 [0.19-0.39], and mean biomass = 0.69 [0.39-0.99]), 54% more nitrogen removal (mean = 0.43 [0.13-0.73]), and 89-95% greater sediment nutrients (mean = 0.67 [0.27-1.07]) and organic matter (mean = 0.64 [0.44-0.84]) relative to degraded habitats. Moreover, restored reefs matched reference reefs for these ecosystem services. Our results support the continued and expanded use of oyster restoration to enhance ecosystem services of degraded coastal systems and match many functions provided by reference reefs.La restauración de especies fundadoras promete revertir la degradación ambiental y restituir servicios ambientales perdidos, pero la falta de evaluación estandarizada de proyectos limita la comprensión de la recuperación, especialmente en sistemas marinos. Los bancos de ostión son restaurados para revertir declinaciones globales masivas y recuperar servicios ecosistémicos valiosos, pero el éxito de estos proyectos no ha sido cuantificado sistemática ni integralmente. Sintetizamos datos sobre los servicios ecosistémicos asociados con la restauración de ostiones de 245 pares de bancos restaurados y degradados y 136 pares de bancos restaurados y de referencia a lo largo de 3500 km de costa del Golfo de México y Atlántico norteamericanos. En promedio, la restauración se asoció con un incremento de 21 veces en la producción de ostión (media de proporción de respuesta log = 3.08 [95% IC 2.58-3.58]), mejoras entre 34 y 97% en el aprovisionamiento de hábitat (abundancia media = 0.51 [0.41-0.61], riqueza media = 0.29 [0.19-0.39], y biomasa media = 0.69 [0.39-0.99]), 54% más remoción de nitrógeno (media = 0.43 [0.13-0.73]), y 89-95% más nutrientes en sedimento (media = 0.67 [0.27-1.07]) y materia orgánica (media = 0.64 [0.44-0.84]) en relación con hábitats degradados. Más aun, estos servicios ecosistémicos de los bancos restaurados fueron muy similares en los bancos de referencia. Nuestros resultados sustentan el uso continuo y expandido de la restauración de ostiones para mejorar los servicios ecosistémicos de sistemas costeros degradados y que sean parecidos a las numerosas funciones proporcionadas por los bancos de referencia.

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987-2019) and 900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm-driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)-underpinned by climatic variability-act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales.

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale-specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non-stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long-term drivers and may miss the importance of short-term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems.

Detecting and understanding disturbance is a challenge in ecology that has grown more critical with global environmental change and the emergence of research on social–ecological systems. We identify three areas of research need: developing a flexible framework that incorporates feedback loops between social and ecological systems, anticipating whether a disturbance will change vulnerability to other environmental drivers, and incorporating changes in system sensitivity to disturbance in the face of global changes in environmental drivers. In the present article, we review how discoveries from the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network have influenced theoretical paradigms in disturbance ecology, and we refine a framework for describing social–ecological disturbance that addresses these three challenges. By operationalizing this framework for seven LTER sites spanning distinct biomes, we show how disturbance can maintain or alter ecosystem state, drive spatial patterns at landscape scales, influence social–ecological interactions, and cause divergent outcomes depending on other environmental changes.

Spatial synchrony may be tail-dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice-versa. Here, 'tail-dependent' follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver translates into tail-dependent spatial synchrony through a non-linear response, and examine empirical evidence for theoretical predictions in giant kelp along the California coastline. In sheltered areas, kelp declines synchronously (lower-tail dependence) when waves are relatively intense, because waves below a certain height do little damage to kelp. Conversely, in exposed areas, kelp is synchronised primarily by periods of calmness that cause shared recovery (upper-tail dependence). We find evidence for geographies of tail dependence in synchrony, which helps structure regional population resilience: areas where population declines are asynchronous may be more resilient to disturbance because remnant populations facilitate reestablishment.

Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony. Here, we test the prevalence of this phenomenon and the conditions under which it may occur using theoretical simulations and empirical data from 20 marine and terrestrial metacommunities. Additionally, given the importance of biodiversity for stability of ecosystem function, we posit that spatial synchrony in species richness is strongly related to stability. Our findings show that metacommunities often exhibit spatial synchrony in species richness. We also found that richness synchrony can be driven by environmental stochasticity and dispersal, two mechanisms of population spatial synchrony. Richness synchrony also depended on community structure, including species evenness and beta diversity. Strikingly, ecosystem stability was more strongly related to richness synchrony than to species richness itself, likely because richness synchrony integrates information about community processes and environmental forcing. Our study highlights a new approach for studying spatiotemporal community dynamics and emphasizes the spatial dimensions of community dynamics and stability.

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and surprising ways. Ongoing demand for critical ecosystem services requires an understanding of the populations and communities in these ecosystems in the future. This paper represents a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the core research area of "populations and communities." The objective of this effort was to show the importance of long-term data collection and experiments for addressing the hardest questions in scientific ecology that have significant implications for environmental policy and management. Each LTER site developed at least one compelling case study about what their site could look like in 50-100 yr as human and environmental drivers influencing specific ecosystems change. As the case studies were prepared, five themes emerged, and the studies were grouped into papers in this LTER Futures Special Feature addressing state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the "connectivity" theme and has examples from the Phoenix (urban), Niwot Ridge (alpine tundra), McMurdo Dry Valleys (polar desert), Plum Island (coastal), Santa Barbara Coastal (coastal), and Jornada (arid grassland and shrubland) sites. Connectivity has multiple dimensions, ranging from multi-scalar interactions in space to complex interactions over time that govern the transport of materials and the distribution and movement of organisms. The case studies presented here range widely, showing how land-use legacies interact with climate to alter the structure and function of arid ecosystems and flows of resources and organisms in Antarctic polar desert, alpine, urban, and coastal marine ecosystems. Long-term ecological research demonstrates that connectivity can, in some circumstances, sustain valuable ecosystem functions, such as the persistence of foundation species and their associated biodiversity or, it can be an agent of state change, as when it increases wind and water erosion. Increased connectivity due to warming can also lead to species range expansions or contractions and the introduction of undesirable species. Continued long-term studies are essential for addressing the complexities of connectivity. The diversity of ecosystems within the LTER network is a strong platform for these studies. National Science Foundation Long-Term Ecological Research programNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-1637590, 1832016, DEB-0213767, 0816963, 1354494, 1902712, NSF OCE-0423565, 1058747, 1637630, OPP-1637708, OCE-1232779, DEB-1832194, DEB-1637686] Published version This research was supported by the National Science Foundation Long-Term Ecological Research program grants to the Central Arizona-Phoenix (DEB-1637590, 1832016), Plum Island (DEB-0213767, 0816963, 1354494, 1902712, NSF OCE-0423565, 1058747, 1637630), McMurdo (OPP-1637708), Santa Barbara (OCE-1232779), Jornada (DEB-1832194), and Niwot (DEB-1637686) LTER sites.

Disturbances often disproportionately impact different vegetation layers in forests and other vertically stratified ecosystems, shaping community structure and ecosystem function. However, disturbance‐driven changes may be mediated by environmental conditions that affect habitat quality and species interactions. In a decade‐long field experiment, we tested how kelp forest net primary productivity (NPP) responds to repeated canopy loss along a gradient in grazing and substrate suitability. We discovered that habitat quality can mediate the effects of intensified disturbance on canopy and understory NPP. Experimental annual and quarterly disturbances suppressed total macroalgal NPP, but effects were strongest in high‐quality habitats that supported dense kelp canopies that were removed by disturbance. Understory macroalgae partly compensated for canopy NPP losses and this effect magnified with increasing habitat quality. Disturbance‐driven increases in understory NPP were still rising after 5–10 years of disturbance, demonstrating the value of long‐term experimentation for understanding ecosystem responses to changing disturbance regimes., In a decade‐long field experiment, we show that habitat quality can mediate the effects of intensified disturbance on canopy and understory net primary productivity (NPP) in kelp forests. Experimental annual and quarterly disturbances suppressed total macroalgal NPP; however, understory macroalgae partly compensated for canopy NPP losses and this effect magnified with increasing habitat quality. Disturbance‐driven increases in understory NPP were still rising after 5–10 years of disturbance, demonstrating the value of long‐term experimentation for understanding ecosystem responses to changing disturbance regimes.

Disturbance plays a key role in structuring community dynamics and is central to conservation and natural resource management. However, ecologists continue to debate the importance of disturbance for species coexistence and biodiversity. Such disagreements may arise in part because few studies have examined variation across multiple dimensions of disturbance (e.g., size, frequency) and how the effects of disturbance may depend on species attributes (e.g., competitiveness, dispersal ability). In light of this gap in understanding and accelerating changes to disturbance regimes worldwide, we used spatial population models to explore how disturbance size and frequency interact with species attributes to affect coexistence between seagrass (Zostera marina) and colonial burrowing shrimp (Neotrypaea californiensis) that compete for benthic space in estuaries throughout the west coast of North America. By simulating population dynamics under a range of ecologically relevant disturbance regimes, we discovered that intermediate disturbance (approximately 9-23% of landscape area per year) to short-dispersing, competitively dominant seagrass can foster long-term stable coexistence with broad-dispersing, competitively inferior burrowing shrimp via the spatial storage effect. When holding the total extent of disturbance constant, the individual size and annual frequency of disturbance altered landscape spatial patterns and mediated the dominance and evenness of competitors. Many small disturbances favored short-dispersing seagrass by hastening recolonization, whereas fewer large disturbances benefited rapidly colonizing burrowing shrimp by creating temporary refugia from competition. As a result, large, infrequent disturbances generally improved the strength and stability of coexistence relative to small, frequent disturbances. Regardless of disturbance size or frequency, the dispersal ability of the superior competitor (seagrass), the competitive ability of the inferior competitor (burrowing shrimp), and the reproduction and survival of both species strongly influenced population abundances and coexistence. Our results show that disturbance size and frequency can promote or constrain coexistence by altering the duration of time over which inferior competitors can escape competitive exclusion, particularly when colonization depends on the spatial pattern of disturbance due to dispersal traits. For coastal managers and conservation practitioners, our findings indicate that reducing particularly large disturbances may help conserve globally imperiled seagrass meadows and control burrowing shrimp colonies that can threaten the viability of oyster aquaculture.

Disturbances often cause the disproportionate loss of foundation species but understanding how the frequency and severity of disturbance to such organisms influence biological communities remains unresolved. This gap in knowledge exists in part because of the rarity of ecologically meaningful studies capable of disentangling different elements of disturbance. Hence, we carried out a long-term (9 yr), large-scale (2,000 m2 plots), spatially replicated (4 sites) field experiment in which we manipulated disturbance to a globally distributed marine foundation species, the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, and tracked community responses over time. To distinguish the effects of disturbance frequency and severity on the biodiversity and composition of temperate rocky reef communities, we simulated the repeated loss of giant kelp from destructive winter waves across a background of natural variation in disturbance. By following the response of over 200 taxa from the surrounding community, we discovered that the frequency of disturbance to giant kelp changed the biomass, diversity, and composition of community guilds in a manner commensurate with their dependence on the physical (i.e., benthic light and space), trophic (i.e., living and detrital biomass), and habitat (i.e., biogenic structure) resources mediated by this foundation species. Annual winter disturbance to giant kelp reduced living and detrital giant kelp biomass by 57% and 40%, respectively, enhanced bottom light by 22%, and halved the seafloor area covered by giant kelp holdfasts. Concomitantly, the biomass of understory algae and epilithic sessile invertebrates more than doubled, while the biomass of rock-boring clams, mobile invertebrates, and fishes decreased 30-61%. Frequent loss of giant kelp boosted understory algal richness by 82% and lowered sessile invertebrate richness by 13% but did not affect the biodiversity of mobile fauna. In contrast to changes driven by disturbance frequency, interannual variation in the severity of disturbance to giant kelp had weaker, less consistent effects, causing only modest changes in assemblages of sessile invertebrates, mobile invertebrate herbivores, and fishes. Our results broaden the foundation species concept by demonstrating that repeated disturbance to a dominant habitat-forming species can outweigh the influence of less frequent but severe disturbances for the surrounding community.

© 2018 The US and Mexico share a common history in many areas, including language and culture. They face ecological changes due to the increased frequency and severity of droughts and rising energy demands; trends that entail economic costs for both nations and major implications for human wellbeing. We describe an ongoing effort by the Environment Working Group (EWG), created by The University of California's UC-Mexico initiative in 2015, to promote binational research, teaching, and outreach collaborations on the implications of climate change for Mexico and California. We synthesize current knowledge about the most pressing issues related to climate change in the US-Mexico border region and provide examples of cross-border discoveries and research initiatives, highlighting the need to move forward in six broad rubrics. This and similar binational cooperation efforts can lead to improved living standards, generate a collaborative mindset among participating universities, and create an international network to address urgent sustainability challenges affecting both countries.

The idea of harmonizing data is not new. Decades of amassing data in databases according to community standards - both locally and globally - have been more successful for some research domains than others. It is particularly difficult to harmonize data across studies where sampling protocols vary greatly and complex environmental conditions need to be understood to apply analytical methods correctly. However, a body of long-term ecological community observations is increasingly becoming publicly available and has been used in important studies. Here, we discuss an approach to preparing harmonized community survey data by an environmental data repository, in collaboration with a national observatory. The workflow framework and repository infrastructure are used to create a decentralized, asynchronous model to reformat data without altering original data through cleaning or aggregation, while retaining metadata about sampling methods and provenance, and enabling programmatic data access. This approach does not create another data ‘silo’ but will allow the repository to contribute subsets of available data to a variety of different analysis-ready data preparation efforts. With certain limitations (e.g., changes to the sampling protocol over time), data updates and downstream processing may be completely automated. In addition to supporting reuse of community observation data by synthesis science, a goal for this harmonization and workflow effort is to contribute these datasets to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to increase the data's discovery and use.

Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment.

The ability of non-native prey to detect native predators and respond with effective anti-predation behaviors may be an important factor mediating invasion success and biotic resistance. However, our current understanding of how native predator cues influence invasive prey is greatly limited. In estuaries and coastal seas—among the most heavily invaded ecosystems—olfaction of chemical cues is a primary mechanism by which sessile and sedentary organisms evaluate predation risk. We tested the hypothesis that chemical cues from a suite of predators native to southern California, USA, estuaries induce anti-predation behaviors in an invasive bivalve, the Asian nest mussel Arcuatula senhousia. In a laboratory experiment, we manipulated chemical cues from injured conspecifics and a functionally and taxonomically diverse group of native predators that may represent important agents of biotic resistance. We then measured several potential anti-predation behaviors that may be key to Arcuatula survival due to its modest structural defenses. As predicted, Arcuatula changed behaviors in response to cues from predators and injured conspecifics. Interestingly, however, Arcuatula was able to discriminate among cues from different native predators: mussels fed less when exposed to cues from snails and stingrays, burrowed deeper in the presence of cues from injured conspecifics and lobsters, and increased aggregation in response to snail cues. Our findings demonstrate that native predators can induce potentially-defensive behavioral changes in an invasive marine bivalve. The ability for Arcuatula to detect and selectively respond to novel predators may play a role in their invasion success in southern California and other regions globally.

Ecological theory predicts that interactions between antagonistic ecosystem engineers can lead to local competitive exclusion, but disturbance can facilitate broader coexistence. However, few empirical studies have tested the potential for disturbance to mediate competition between engineers. We examined the capacity for disturbance and habitat modification to explain the disjunct distributions of two benthic ecosystem engineers, eelgrass Zostera marina and the burrowing ghost shrimp Neotrypaea californiensis, in two California estuaries. Sediment sampling in eelgrass and ghost shrimp patches revealed that ghost shrimp change benthic biogeochemistry over small scales (centimeters) but not patch scales (meters to tens of meters), suggesting a limited capacity for sediment modification to explain species distributions. To determine the relative competitive abilities of engineers, we conducted reciprocal transplantations of ghost shrimp and eelgrass. Local ghost shrimp densities declined rapidly following the addition of eelgrass, and transplanted eelgrass expanded laterally into the surrounding ghost shrimp-dominated areas. When transplanted into eelgrass patches, ghost shrimp failed to persist. Ghost shrimp were also displaced from plots with structural mimics of eelgrass rhizomes and roots, suggesting that autogenic habitat modification by eelgrass is an important mechanism determining ghost shrimp distributions. However, ghost shrimp were able to rapidly colonize experimental disturbances to eelgrass patch edges, which are common in shallow estuaries. We conclude that coexistence in this system is maintained by spatiotemporally asynchronous disturbances and a competition-colonization trade-off: eelgrass is a competitively superior ecosystem engineer, but benthic disturbances permit the coexistence of ghost shrimp at the landscape scale by modulating the availability of space.

Eutrophication of estuaries and coastal seas is accelerating, increasing light stress on subtidal marine plants and changing their interactions with other species. To date, we have limited understanding of how such variations in environmental and biological stress modify the impact of interactions among foundational species and eventually affect ecosystem health. Here, we used metabolomics to assess the impact of light reductions on interactions between the seagrass Zostera marina, an important habitat-forming marine plant, and the abundant and commercially important blue mussel Mytilus edulis. Plant performance varied with light availability but was unaffected by the presence of mussels. Metabolomic analysis, on the other hand, revealed an interaction between light availability and presence of M. edulis on seagrass metabolism. Under high light, mussels stimulated seagrass nitrogen and energy metabolism. Conversely, in low light mussels impeded nitrogen and energy metabolism, and enhanced responses against sulfide toxicity, causing inhibited oxidative energy metabolism and tissue degradation. Metabolomic analysis thereby revealed cryptic changes to seagrass condition that could not be detected by traditional approaches. Our findings suggest that coastal eutrophication and associated reductions in light may shift seagrass-bivalve interactions from mutualistic to antagonistic, which is important for conservation management of seagrass meadows.

Demographic connectivity is vital to sustaining metapopulations yet often changes dramatically through time due to variation in the production and dispersal of offspring. However, the relative importance of variation in fecundity and dispersal in determining the connectivity and dynamics of metapopulations is poorly understood due to the paucity of comprehensive spatio-temporal data on these processes for most species. We quantified connectivity in metapopulations of a marine foundation species (giant kelpMacrocystis pyrifera) across 11 years and approximately 900 km of coastline by estimating population fecundity with satellite imagery and propagule dispersal using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. By varying the temporal complexity of different connectivity measures and comparing their ability to explain observed extinction–colonization dynamics, we discovered that fluctuations in population fecundity, rather than fluctuations in dispersal, are the dominant driver of variation in connectivity and contribute substantially to metapopulation recovery and persistence. Thus, for species with high variability in reproductive output and modest variability in dispersal (most plants, many animals), connectivity measures ignoring fluctuations in fecundity may overestimate connectivity and likelihoods of persistence, limiting their value for understanding and conserving metapopulations. However, we demonstrate how connectivity measures can be simplified while retaining utility, validating a practical solution for data-limited systems.

Environmental context may influence the sign, strength, and mechanisms of species interactions but few studies have experimentally tested the potential for abiotic conditions to mediate interactions through multiple co-occurring stress pathways. Abiotic conditions may mediate species interactions by directly or indirectly influencing the effects of habitat-modifying organisms that are capable of simultaneously ameliorating and exacerbating multiple stressors. It was hypothesized that light availability changes seagrass metabolism and thereby indirectly regulates bivalve habitat modification and subsequent impacts on seagrasses by shifting net effects between alleviation of nutrient stress and intensification of sulfide stress. To test this hypothesis, manipulations of light availability and blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) abundance were made in eelgrass (Zostera marina) mesocosms and biogeochemical and plant responses were measured. Light modified the effect of mussels on porewater ammonium, but eelgrass was not nutrient limited and, therefore, mussels did not enhance growth. Mussels increased sediment sulfides irrespective of light availability and, by reducing net oxygen flux (production and respiration), mussels and low light availability exacerbated sulfide intrusion of eelgrass tissues. Surprisingly, sulfide stress did not affect plant growth, survival, or energy stores. Thus, habitat modification by mussels may represent a risk to eelgrass, especially during low productivity conditions, but eelgrass can resist harm from short-term stress, even during light limitation. These findings suggest that while small-scale bivalve impacts on seagrasses may be variable in oligotrophic estuaries, they have the potential to be negative in eutrophic systems, which are increasing globally. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.