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I kapittelet drøfter vi utenlandsinvesteringer i sjømatnæringen og Norges forhold til EU. Mens eierskap i fangst hovedsakelig er nasjonalt, er oppdrettsnæringen preget av multinasjonale selskaper. Norge og mange EU-land har begrensninger på utenlandsk eierskap i fangst. Derimot er det ikke tilsvarende begrensninger på utenlandsk eierskap i foredling eller i oppdrett. Alternative tilknytningsformer til EU kan påvirke investeringsstrømmer i fiskerisektoren.

Review of The International Mobility of Talent and Innovation – New Evidence and Policy Implications, edited by Carsten Fink and Ernest Miguelez (2018), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 306 pages.

Recent decades have witnessed a strong globalization process. This has been so for international trade and international capital markets, but also in the field of Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs). IPRs were formerly in the domains of nation states. International treaties have dictated convergence in IPR institutions across the world. This paper gives a short overview of these developments. Incentives for IPRs are stronger for more innovative countries. Therefore, innovative countries traditionally had stronger IPR than less innovative countries. A negotiated global treatment (like the TRIPS agreement) is likely to be a compromise between the needs in innovative and less innovative countries. Such agreements may therefore be complemented with additional agreements among innovative countries. The European Patent Office (EPO), and the planned European unitary patent are examples. IPRs are also incorporated into new preferential trade agreements. Many believe that this trend will result in convergence of stronger IPRs across countries, to the benefit of innovative countries, but at the cost of less innovative countries.

This paper reviews two strands of literature. The first is on Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and growth. The increasing role of ICTs came together with stagnating growth rates in many countries. This has been denoted the Solow paradox. During the dot-com era from the mid-1990s, many believed that the paradox was solved. Growth rates increased and the internet became pervasive. The great recession has been followed by lower growth in Europe and in the United States and a return of the Solow paradox. Evidence indicates that the share of internet users in a population had a positive effect of growth in the 1990s, but that this effect vanished for developed countries after 2000. The second strand of literature is a heterogeneous research tradition that relates ICT not to income and growth, but to human well-being. That literature indicates positive (as well as some negative) effects of ICT and the internet on people’s happiness. Some new evidence indicate that the share of internet users in populations in a panel of countries is positively related to average happiness.

I 2016 er det ventet at ferdigforhandlet frihandelsavtale mellom EU og Canada vil tre i kraft. Avtalen innebærer at de fleste tollsatser mellom EU og Canada fjernes. Det tas også sikte på å redusere andre handelshindre. Den samlede utenrikshandelen til EU og Canada representerer om lag 34 prosent av den totale verdenshandelen. Handelen mellom EU og Canada er mindre og representerer 0.25 prosent av verdens totale handel. Avtalen er likevel viktig og den er ventet å øke handelen mellom EU og Canada. Avtalen får også virkninger for andre land. En virkning av frihandelsavtaler er handelsvridning. Import fra tredjeland erstattes av import fra avtalepartnerne. For Norge kan dette være av betydning siden Norge i utgangspunktet har frihandelsavtaler både med EU og Canada. Norges handelspreferanser i EU og Canada blir mindre med frihandelsavtale mellom EU og Canada.I notatet beregnes slike virkninger for Norges eksport til EU og til Canada. Virkningene på norsk eksport avhenger av handelshindrene iutgangspunktet og av markedsandelen til henholdsvis EU i canadiske markeder og Canada i europeiske markeder. De samlede virkningene av frihandelsavtalen mellom EU og Canada beregnes å være små. Men for enkelte varer og varetyper kan virkningene være betydelige.

Forhandlingene om et handels- og investeringspartnerskap (TTIP) mellom EU og USA er svært ambisiøse og har som mål å fjerne tollbarrierer samt en rekke regulatoriske hindringer mellom de to partene. Avtalen er ment å dekke handel i både varer og tjenester samt investeringer. I rapporten analyserer vi konsekvensene av et TTIP for Norge. Vi ser også på konsekvenser av en egen handels- og investeringsavtale mellom Norge og USA.

Globalization, high growth rates in high-tech industries, growing emerging markets and harmonization of patent institutions across countries have stimulated patenting in foreign markets. We use a simple model of international patenting, where the decision to patent in a foreign country depends on country characteristics and the quality of the patented invention. With access to a detailed database on individual patents owned by Swedish small firms and inventors, we are able to estimate some of these relationships and test their validity. Our results indicate that the propensity to apply for international patent protection increases with indicators of the quality of the invention and indicators of technological rivalry and market size in the host market.

Notatet gjengir en undersøkelse blant norske fiskeribedrifters investeringer i utlandet. Undersøkelsen er basert på dybdeintervjuer med 10 bedrifter. Bedriftene omfatter store konsern og små bedrifter innenfor flere deler av fiskerisektoren. Svarene i undersøkelsen peker i retning av at markedsadgang er et vesentlig motiv for norske fiskeribedrifters investeringer i andre land. I noen sammenhenger er dette kombinert med motiver om billig arbeidskraft og om tilgang til fiskeressurser. Undersøkelsen viser også at bedrifter både driver oppkjøp av eksisterende bedrifter og investeringer i ny produksjon. Teknologiske faktorer, som at norske bedrifter er spesielt konkurransedyktige på sine felt, bidrar også til investeringer i andre land. I fiskerisektoren er politiske reguleringer mer omfattende enn i mange andre næringer. Derfor skjer utenlandsinvesteringer i denne næringen i hovedsak innenfor oppdrett og fiskeforedling, og i mindre grad i fiske. Det norske virkemiddelapparatet for norsk næringsliv har bare i begrenset grad hatt betydning for de bedriftene som har deltatt i undersøkelsen.

While previous research found no other variable than corruption to have a negative impact on (the growth rate of) the African countries' elephant populations, we show that one further significant impact is exerted by what one might all neighbourhood effects. Elephants travel long distances, often crossing borders. Using spatial econometric tools, we find that elephant population changes in one country have a positive impact on elephants in neighbouring countries. Our results have possible policy implications, as they suggest that the spatial clustering of funds and of conservation efforts makes sense if the endangered species move across borders.

This paper presents some characteristics of Norway’s trade with developing countries. Norwegian trade with low and low middle-income countries has increased in recent years. Imports have increased more than exports. This is partly because a large part of Norwegian exports is petroleum sold to other OECD countries. Norwegian trade with the least developed countries, on the other hand, is stagnant and constitutes only a minor share of Norwegian foreign trade. This pattern is similar to other OECD countries: Developing countries increase their share in world trade while least developed countries are marginalized. By adjusting for size and geographical position of Norwegian trade partners it is found that Norwegian trade with developing countries is as expected as compared to other OECD countries.

This paper reviews parts of the recent literature on trade and growth. The relationships between trade and growth have been extensively studied in recent research. Many studies indicate that trade stimulates income and growth. The literature is controversial and many studies are criticised for weaknesses in methodology. Despite the methodological controversies, most evidence gives support for the view that trade stimulates growth. It is argued that major deficiency in the literature is that it does not discriminate between the impact of market access in other countries and the impact of liberal domestic trade policies.

This paper documents recent developments in German ICT industries. In particular we report results on spatial patterns in innovation and employment in these industries. The paper is motivated by previous studies that have found that ICT industries seem to cluster geographically and having spatially clustered growth rates. In this study, we discriminate between production of ICT devices and production of ICT services. In Germany, production of ICT devices is concentrated in clusters of innovating regions (in terms of patents). ICT service production, on the other hand, is concentrated in larger urban areas. Growth rates in ICT-related employment show different spatial patterns. The data show that negative spatial effects are present for several sectors, which might give support for the so-called backwash effect described by Gunnar Myrdal (1957). For other sectors, positive spatial spillover effects may be present. For overall economic development (in terms of gross regional product per habitant) we find weak positive growth effects ICT, but these growth effects stem more from innovation than from production or use of ICT.

Many advocates of an active regional economic policy tend to consider regional sectoral concentration as something which can be created, as a recipe rather than just a development which sometimes occurs and sometimes not. Whether such a policy can be successful implicitly depends on a number of assumptions which are empirically tested in this paper: The first assumption is that regional concentration and regional specialisation foster growth. We test this hypothesis, using data for nine ICT industries in 97 German regions. According to preliminary results, the effect of concentration is positive as expected, but small and its significance depends on specification and industry. Second, the common perception is that East Germany is still a special case. This is clearly supported for the ICT industry, which lacks behind not only with respect to level, but also with respect to growth rates for 1998 to 2002. Third, if regional sectoral agglomeration is an advantage for regions due to technological externalities, for example, then the same reasons might lead to spillover effects between neighbouring regions. With Myrdal we call this a "spread effect". However, the opposite, called "backwash effect" by Myrdal, is also well possible: If a certain sector is growing in region A, that might be due to firms moving in from the neighbouring regions. While the spread effect is the more popular hypothesis, we find evidence for both effects, using standard spatial econometrics techniques. We also discuss the possible reasons why neighbourhood effects are positive in some ICT industries and negative in others. Forth, we investigate whether regional economic policy has a positive impact. Again using spatial econometrics techniques, not so standard in this case, our preliminary results show that the 16 German Laender seem not able to do change the path which is determined for the ICT industries by spatial and other variables.

Notatet diskuterer mulige virkninger av tollreduksjoner gjennom forhandlinger i WTO for eksport av norske industrivarer. Ulike forslag om tollreduksjoner, som bruken av den såkalte Girards formel diskuteres. Det vises at reduksjoner i tråd med Girards formel kan gi økt norsk eksport på i underkant av to prosent for et utvalg av land. Virkningene er ulikt fordelt over handelspartnere og sektorer. For land Norge har preferanseavtaler med gir tollreduksjoner gjennom WTO ingen økning i eksport. For andre land vil tollreduksjoner gi til dels betydelig effekt.

Dette notatet drøfter norsk eksport og virkninger av toll som legges på norsk eksport til andre land. Notatet viser at uavhengig av toll er økonomisk størrelse og geografisk avstand viktige forklaringsvariable for norsk eksport. Derfor kan ofte betydningen av handelspolitikk overdrives. Analysen av virkningene av toll mot norsk eksport viser likevel at tollsatser bidrar til redusert eksport. Et disaggregert datasett viser klare og signifikante effekter av tollsatser i andre land. For enkelte land kan effekten av å fjerne toll være at eksporten øker med mer enn 20 prosent. Resultatene må likevel tolkes med forsiktighet: Ulike varer har ulik følsomhet for tollsatser.

Income in the world does not distribute randomly in space. There are geographic clusters of rich and poor countries. Also growth rates tend to be spatially clustered. Spatial regression analyses indicate that geographical clustering may be an inherent ingredient in growth mechanisms: Growth in one country stimulates growth in surrounding countries. A simple exogenous growth model with technology diffusion through trade in capital goods can account for some, but not all of these empirical patterns of growth and income distribution.

What is the impact of patent citations on patent renewal behaviour? Patent citations are commonly used as an indicator of technology spillovers. For cited patents therefore, patent citations have a potentially ambiguous impact. On the one hand, patent citations may indicate a scientific breakthrough, a high value of the cited patent and therefore a long survival period. On the other hand, patent citations may indicate competing innovations that render the cited patent obsolete. By discriminating patents by technology field, it is demonstrated that patents that receive citations across technology fields survive longer than other patents. Patents that receive citations within the same technology field lapse earlier.

Research on economic growth has experienced remarkable progress the last decade. The neoclassical perspective has benefited from development of new mathematical methods and new approaches to market structure, economics of scale and spillover effects. At the same time evolutionary theories on economic development have appeared, partly competing but also complementary to neoclassical theorising. In this paper, the development of the two perspectives on economic growth is reviewed and they are compared with each other. Despite evident differences there seems to be convergence between the two traditions. The two perspectives therefore do not belong to different paradigms in the Kuhnian sense and they can hardly be categorised as two isolated research programmes in the sense of Imre Lakatos. Evolutionary and neoclassical growth economics draw inspiration from similar sources, they are overlapping and to some extent complementary. The two traditions also interact with each other.