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The Congo Basin tropical forests are home to many endemic and endangered species, and a global hotspot for forest fragmentation and loss. Yet, little has been done to document the region's rapid deforestation, assess its effects and consequences, or project future forest cover loss to aid in effective planning. Here we applied the Random Forest (RF) supervised classification algorithm in Google Earth Engine (GEE) to map and quantify decadal changes in forest cover and land use (LCLU) in the Congo Basin between 1990 and 2020. We cross-validated our LCLU maps with existing global land cover products, and projected our validated results to 2050 under three climate change scenarios, using the Multiperceptron Artificial Neural Network and Markov chain algorithms of the Idrissi Land Change modeller from TerrSet. We found that, over 5.2% (215,938 km2), 1.2% (50,046 km2), and a 2.1% (86,658 km2) of dense forest cover were lost in the Congo Basin between 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020, totaling approximately 8.5% (352,642 km2) loss estimated between 1990-2020. For the period 2020-2050, we estimated a projected 3.7-4.0% (174,860-204,161 km2) loss in dense forest cover under all three climate change scenarios (i.e., 174,860 km2 loss projected for SSP1-2.6, 199,608 km2 for SSP2-4.5, and 204,161 km2 for SSP5-8.5), suggesting that approximately 12.3-12.6% (527,502 km2-556,803 km2) of dense forest cover could be lost over a 60-year period (1990-2050). Our study represents a novel application of spatial modeling tools and Machine Learning algorithms for assessing long-term deforestation and forest degradation within the Congo Basin, under human population growth and IPCC climate change scenarios. We provide spatial and quantitative results required for supporting long-term deforestation and forest degradation monitoring within Congo Basin countries, especially under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) REDD+ (Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) program., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Yuh et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Achieving net zero global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), with declining emissions of other greenhouse gases, is widely expected to halt global warming. CO 2 emissions will continue to drive warming until fully balanced by active anthropogenic CO 2 removals. For practical reasons, however, many greenhouse gas accounting systems allow some "passive" CO 2 uptake, such as enhanced vegetation growth due to CO 2 fertilisation, to be included as removals in the definition of net anthropogenic emissions. By including passive CO 2 uptake, nominal net zero emissions would not halt global warming, undermining the Paris Agreement. Here we discuss measures addressing this problem, to ensure residual fossil fuel use does not cause further global warming: land management categories should be disaggregated in emissions reporting and targets to better separate the role of passive CO 2 uptake; where possible, claimed removals should be additional to passive uptake; and targets should acknowledge the need for Geological Net Zero, meaning one tonne of CO 2 permanently restored to the solid Earth for every tonne still generated from fossil sources. We also argue that scientific understanding of net zero provides a basis for allocating responsibility for the protection of passive carbon sinks during and after the transition to Geological Net Zero., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs emission scenarios to explore a range of future climate outcomes but refrains from assigning probabilities to individual scenarios. However, IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are valuable to understand because authors possess both expert insight and considerable influence. Here we report the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors about the likelihood of four key climate outcomes. We found that most authors are skeptical that warming will be limited to the Paris targets of well below 2 °C, but are more optimistic that net zero CO 2 emissions will be reached during the second half of this century. When asked about the beliefs of their peers, author responses showed strong correlations between personal and peer beliefs, suggesting that participants with extreme beliefs perceive their own estimates as closer to the community average than they actually are., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2024.)

Nature-based climate solutions can contribute to climate mitigation, but the vulnerability of land carbon to disturbances means that efforts to slow or reverse land carbon loss could result in only temporary storage. The challenge of accounting for temporary storage is a key barrier to the implementation of nature-based climate mitigation strategies. Here we offer a solution to this challenge using tonne-year accounting, which integrates the amount of carbon over the time that it remains in storage. We show that tonne-years of carbon storage are proportional to degree-years of avoided warming, and that a physically based tonne-year accounting metric could effectively quantify and track the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage. If the world can sustain an increasing number of tonne-years alongside rapid fossil fuel CO 2 emissions reductions, then the resulting carbon storage (even if only temporary) would have considerable and lasting climate value by lowering the global temperature peak., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Glucocorticoids (GCs) are hormones released in response to stressors and can provide insight into an organism's physiological well-being. Experiencing chronic challenges to homeostasis is associated with significant deviations from baseline fecal GCs (fGCs) in many species, providing a noninvasive biomarker for assessing stress. In the group of free-ranging Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata) at the Awajishima Monkey Center in Japan, ~17% have congenital limb malformations. We collected 646 fecal samples from 27 females over three consecutive birth seasons (May-August) and analyzed them using enzyme immunoassay to extract fGCs. We explored the relationship between fGC levels and individual (physical impairment and reproductive status), social (dominance rank and availability of kin for social support), and ecological variables (exposure to potential predators, rainfall, and wild fruit availability). A disabled infant was associated significantly with higher fGC in the mother; however, physical impairment in adult females was not significantly related to fGC levels. Females with higher dominance rank had significantly lower fGC levels than lower ranking females. Other factors did not relate significantly to fGC. These results suggest that providing care that meets the support needs of disabled infants poses a physiological challenge for mothers and suggests that physically impaired adults are able to effectively compensate for their disabilities with behavioral plasticity. Once an individual with congenital limb malformations survives infancy through their mother's care, physical impairment does not appear to influence fGC values, while social variables like dominance rank significantly influenced cortisol values in free-ranging female Japanese macaques., (© 2023 The Authors. American Journal of Primatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Climate change necessitates a global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to increased climate risks. This broader climate transition will involve large-scale global interventions including renewable energy deployment, coastal protection and retreat, and enhanced space cooling, all of which will result in CO 2 emissions from energy and materials use. Yet, the magnitude of the emissions embedded in these interventions remains unconstrained, opening the potential for underaccounting of emissions and conflicts or synergies between mitigation and adaptation goals. Here, we use a suite of models to estimate the CO 2 emissions embedded in the broader climate transition. For a gradual decarbonization pathway limiting warming to 2 °C, selected adaptation-related interventions will emit ∼1.3 GtCO 2 through 2100, while emissions from energy used to deploy renewable capacity are much larger at ∼95 GtCO 2 . Together, these emissions are equivalent to over 2 y of current global emissions and 8.3% of the remaining carbon budget for 2 °C. Total embedded transition emissions are reduced by ∼80% to 21.2 GtCO 2 under a rapid pathway limiting warming to 1.5 °C. However, they roughly double to 185 GtCO 2 under a delayed pathway consistent with current policies (2.7 °C warming by 2100), mainly because a slower transition relies more on fossil fuel energy. Our results provide a holistic assessment of carbon emissions from the transition itself and suggest that these emissions can be minimized through more ambitious energy decarbonization. We argue that the emissions from mitigation, but likely much less so from adaptation, are of sufficient magnitude to merit greater consideration in climate science and policy.

The use of digital tracking of individuals throughout the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic renewed societal debates on the efficacy and ethics of digital surveillance to mitigate collective crises. While digital emissions tracking is being used to support climate-mitigation strategies, to date there has been limited exploration of the opportunities and challenges of deploying it at the individual level. Here, we assess temporal and regional differences in levels of support for the use of digital surveillance in times of crisis, such as climate change. Results from a global survey indicate moderate support for the use of digital tracking, including for personal carbon footprints. Response varied regionally, with the lowest support in North America and Europe. This study raises key questions-if digital surveillance tools could be part of a socially acceptable response to the climate crisis, is it worth exploring? Or is this an unacceptable risk for society?, Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests. A.L.L. has an additional affiliation with Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, and S.L.R.W. has changed their affiliation to Habitat, an independent consulting company for the implementation of nature-based solutions. Both changes occurred after the study was commissioned, conducted, written, and initially submitted., (© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years. Though the growth rate of global carbon dioxide emissions has slowed and many countries have strengthened their emissions targets, current midcentury net zero goals are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures. The primary barriers to the achievement of a 1.5°C-compatible pathway are not geophysical but rather reflect inertia in our political and technological systems. Both political and corporate leadership are needed to overcome this inertia, supported by increased societal recognition of the need for system-level and individual lifestyle changes. The available evidence does not yet indicate that the world has seriously committed to achieving the 1.5°C goal.

Cumulative CO 2 emissions are a robust predictor of mean temperature increase. However, many societal impacts are driven by exposure to extreme weather conditions. Here, we show that cumulative emissions can be robustly linked to regional changes of a heat exposure indicator, as well as the resulting socioeconomic impacts associated with labour productivity loss in vulnerable economic sectors. We estimate historical and future increases in heat exposure using simulations from eight Earth System Models. Both the global intensity and spatial pattern of heat exposure evolve linearly with cumulative emissions across scenarios (1% CO 2 , RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The pattern of heat exposure at a given level of global temperature increase is strongly affected by non-CO 2 forcing. Global non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions amplify heat exposure, while high local emissions of aerosols could moderate exposure. Considering CO 2 forcing only, we commit ourselves to an additional annual loss of labour productivity of about 2% of total GDP per unit of trillion tonne of carbon emitted. This loss doubles when adding non-CO 2 forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario. This represents an additional economic loss of about 4,400 G$ every year (i.e. 0.59 $/tCO 2 ), varying across countries with generally higher impact in lower-income countries.

Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO 2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO 2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 °C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO 2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO 2 emissions of about 510 PgC and -180 PgC for 1.5 °C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO 2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO 2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO 2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO 2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 ., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Debates about the likelihood of conspecific care for disabled individuals in ancestral hominins rely on evidence from extant primates, yet little is known about social treatment (positive, neutral or negative) of physically disabled individuals in nonhuman primates. A group of free-ranging Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata) at the Awajishima Monkey Center (AMC) in Japan presents a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between physical impairment and social behavior, in the context of congenital limb malformation in adult nonhuman primates. We collected behavioral data on 23 focal animals, taking 30-minute continuous time samples on disabled and nondisabled adult female Japanese macaques during three consecutive birth seasons (May-August 2005, 2006, and 2007). Disabled females were less social overall compared with nondisabled controls, a pattern that was evident from a variety of measures. Disabled females rested significantly more and socialized significantly less compared with controls, had fewer adult female affiliates, fewer adult female grooming partners, and spent less time engaged in grooming with adult females. Some measures suggested that the social differences were the result of behavioral flexibility on the part of disabled females compensating for their disabilities with lower levels of social involvement and more rest. Disabled females were as successful at groom solicitations as were nondisabled females and the ratio of disabled and nondisabled affiliates was similar among focal animals; there was no strong preference related to the disability status of affiliates. Disabled females were also bitten and chased less frequently. Overall, there was little evidence either for conspecific care or for social selection against disability. In general, there was a socially neutral response to disability, and while neutral social context allows for the possibility of care behaviors, our findings emphasize the self-reliant abilities of these disabled primates and suggest caution when inferring conspecific care for even very disabled ancestral humans., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO(2) concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO(2) emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO(2) relative to other major climate forcing agents.

Little is known about consequences of disability in nonhuman primates, yet individuals with disabilities can reveal much about behavioral flexibility, innovation, and the capabilities of a species. The Macaca fuscata population surrounding the Awajishima Monkey Center has experienced high rates of congenital limb malformation for at least 40 years, creating a unique opportunity to examine consequences of physical impairment in situ, in a relatively large sample of free-ranging adult monkeys. Here we present behavioral data on 11 disabled adult females and 12 nondisabled controls from 279 hours of randomly ordered 30-minute focal animal follows collected during May-August in 2005, 2006, and 2007. We quantified numerous statistically significant disability-related behavioral differences among females. Disabled females spent less time begging for peanuts from tourists, and employed a behavioral variant of such peanut begging; they had a lower frequency of hand use in grooming and compensated with increased direct use of the mouth or a two-arm pinch technique; and they had a higher frequency of self-scratching, and more use of feet in self-scratching. Self-scratching against substrates was almost exclusively a disability associated behavior. Two females used habitual bipedalism. These differences not withstanding, disabled females behaved similarly to controls in many respects: overall reliance on provisioned and wild foods, time spent feeding, and feeding efficiency did not differ among females, and there was no time difference in behavior performed arboreally or terrestrially. Disabled adult females were able to compensate behaviorally to perform social and life-sustaining activities, modifying existing behaviors to suit their individual physical situations and, occasionally, inventing new ways of doing things., (© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3 degrees C (1.1 degrees to 1.4 degrees C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.

Avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for "dangerous anthropogenic interference," taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median estimate of 590 petagrams of carbon (PgC) (range, 200 to 950 PgC). If the 2 degrees C temperature stabilization target is to be met with a probability of at least 0.9, median total allowable CO2 emissions are 170 PgC (range, -220 to 700 PgC). Furthermore, these estimates of cumulative CO2 emissions, compatible with a specified temperature stabilization target, are independent of the path taken to stabilization. Our analysis therefore supports an international policy framework aimed at avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference formulated on the basis of total allowable greenhouse gas emissions.

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

The Awajishima Monkey Center (AMC) free-ranging, provisioned population of Japanese macaques has included individuals with congenital limb malformations (CLMs) for at least 40 years. Including new data from this study, 16.1% of AMC infants from 1969 to 2007 (185 of 1,150) were born with CLMs. However, relatively little is known about the demographics of CLMs in the population, particularly the relationships among occurrence and severity of CLMs and age-sex demographics after infancy. In 2004, we conducted a census at AMC. Of the 199 monkeys censused, 34 individuals (17.1%) had CLMs. To estimate the severity of CLMs, we created an index that ranks individuals on a scale of 0 to 1 based on affected and absent limbs and digits. The severity of CLMs varied greatly (index range = 0.01-0.79, mean = 0.29), with similar variation in severity in each age-sex class (Student t-test, P > 0.05).

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.