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Understanding of long-term climatic change prior to instrumental records necessitates reconstructions from documentary and palaeoclimate archives. In southern Africa, documentary-derived chronologies of nineteenth century rainfall variability and palaeoclimate records have permitted new insights into rainfall variability over past centuries. Rarely considered, however, is the climatic information within early colonial documentary records that emerge from the late fifteenth century onwards. This paper examines evidence for (multi-)seasonal dry and wet events within these earlier written records (c. 1550–1830 CE) from southeast Africa (Mozambique) and west-central Africa (Angola) in conjunction with palaeoclimate records from multiple proxies. Specifically, it aims to understand whether these sources agree in their signals of rainfall variability over a 280-year period covering the ‘main phase’ Little Ice Age (LIA) in southern Africa. The two source types generally, but do not always, show agreement within the two regions. This appears to reflect both the nature of rainfall variability and the context behind documentary recording. Both source types indicate that southeast and west-central Africa were distinct regions of rainfall variability over seasonal and longer timescales during the LIA, with southeast Africa being generally drier and west-central Africa generally wetter. However, the documentary records reveal considerable variability within these mean state climatic conditions, with multi-year droughts a recurrent feature in both regions. An analysis of long-term rainfall links with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in southeast Africa suggests a complex and possibly non-stationary relationship. Overall, early colonial records provide valuable information for constraining hydroclimate variability where palaeoclimate records remain sparse.

In the 12,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution, human activities led to significant changes in land cover, plant and animal distributions, surface hydrology, and biochemical cycles. Earth system models suggest that this anthropogenic land cover change influenced regional and global climate. However, the representation of past land use in earth system models is currently oversimplified. As a result, there are large uncertainties in the current understanding of the past and current state of the earth system. In order to improve representation of the variety and scale of impacts that past land use had on the earth system, a global effort is underway to aggregate and synthesize archaeological and historical evidence of land use systems. Here we present a simple, hierarchical classification of land use systems designed to be used with archaeological and historical data at a global scale and a schema of codes that identify land use practices common to a range of systems, both implemented in a geospatial database. The classification scheme and database resulted from an extensive process of consultation with researchers worldwide. Our scheme is designed to deliver consistent, empirically robust data for the improvement of land use models, while simultaneously allowing for a comparative, detailed mapping of land use relevant to the needs of historical scholars. To illustrate the benefits of the classification scheme and methods for mapping historical land use, we apply it to Mesopotamia and Arabia at 6 kya (c. 4000 BCE). The scheme will be used to describe land use by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k working group, an international project comprised of archaeologists, historians, geographers, paleoecologists, and modelers. Beyond this, the scheme has a wide utility for creating a common language between research and policy communities, linking archaeologists with climate modelers, biodiversity conservation workers and initiatives. Fil: Morrison, Kathleen D.. University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos Fil: Hammer, Emily. University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos Fil: Boles, Oliver. University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos Fil: Madella, Marco. University of the Witwatersrand; Sudáfrica. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; España Fil: Whitehouse, Nicola. University of Glasgow; Reino Unido Fil: Gaillard, Marie-Jose. Linnaeus University; Suecia Fil: Bates, Jennifer. University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos Fil: Linden, Marc Vander. Bournemouth University; Sudáfrica Fil: Merlo, Stefania. University of the Witwatersrand; Sudáfrica Fil: Yao, Alice. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos Fil: Popova, Laura. Arizona State University; Estados Unidos Fil: Hill, Austin Chad. University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos Fil: Antolin, Ferran. Universiat Basel; Suiza Fil: Bauer, Andrew. University of Stanford; Estados Unidos Fil: Biagetti, Stefano. University of the Witwatersrand; Sudáfrica. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; España Fil: Bishop, Rosie R.. University of Stavanger; Noruega Fil: Buckland, Phillip. Universidad de Umea; Suecia Fil: Cruz, Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades; Argentina Fil: Dreslerová, Dagmar. Institute Of Archaeology Of The Academy Of Sciences Of The Czech Republic; Hungría Fil: Dusseldorp, Gerrit. Leiden University; Países Bajos Fil: Ellis, Erle C.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos. University Of Johannesburg; Sudáfrica Fil: Filipovich, Ruben Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; Argentina Fil: Foster, Thomas. University of Tulsa; Estados Unidos Fil: Hannaford, Matthew J.. Lincoln University.; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Harrison, Sandy P.. University of Reading; Reino Unido Fil: Hazarika, Manjil. Cotton University; India Fil: Herold, Hajnalka. University of Exeter; Reino Unido Fil: Hilpert, Johanna. Universitat zu Köln; Alemania Fil: Kaplan, Jed O.. The University Of Hong Kong; Hong Kong Fil: Kay, Andrea. Max Planck Institute For The Science Of Human History; Alemania Fil: Goldewijk, Kees Klein. Utrecht University; Países Bajos Fil: Kolár, Jan. Masaryk University; República Checa Fil: Kyazike, Elizabeth. Kyambogo University; Uganda Fil: Laabs, Julian. University of Bern; Suiza Fil: Lancelotti, Carla. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; España Fil: Lane, Paul. University of the Witwatersrand; Sudáfrica. University of Cambridge; Estados Unidos Fil: Lawrence, Dan. University of Durham; Reino Unido Fil: Lewis, Krista. University of Arkansas; Estados Unidos Fil: Lombardo, Umberto. University of Bern; Suiza Fil: Lucarini, Giulio. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche; Italia. University of Naples; Italia Fil: Arroyo Kalin, Manuel. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino Unido Fil: Marchant, Rob. University of York; Reino Unido Fil: Mayle, Francis. University of Reading; Reino Unido Fil: McClatchie, Meriel. University College; Irlanda Fil: McLeester, Madeleine. Dartmouth College; Estados Unidos Fil: Mooney, Scott. Unsw Sydney; Australia Fil: Moskal-Del Hoyo, Magdalena. Wladyslaw Szafer Institute Of Botany Of The Polish Academy Of Sciences; Polonia Fil: Navarrete, Vanessa. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; España Fil: Ndiema, Emmanuel. National Museums Of Kenya; Kenia Fil: Neves, Eduardo Góes. Universidade de Sao Paulo; Brasil Fil: Nowak, Marek. Jagiellonian University; Polonia Fil: Out, Welmoed A.. Moesgaard Museum; Dinamarca Fil: Petrie, Cameron. Universitat Pompeu Fabra; España. University of Cambridge; Estados Unidos Fil: Phelps, Leanne N.. Royal Botanic Gardens; Reino Unido. University of Edinburgh; Reino Unido Fil: Szakonyi, Zsolt. Eötvös University; Hungría Fil: Rostain, Stéphen. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Russell, Thembi. University of the Witwatersrand; Sudáfrica Fil: Sluyter, Andrew. Louisiana State University; Estados Unidos Fil: Styring, Amy K.. University of Oxford; Reino Unido Fil: Tamanaha, Eduardo. The Mamirauá Sustainable Development Institute; Brasil Fil: Thomas, Evert. The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT; Perú Fil: Veerasamy, Selvakumar. Tamil University; India Fil: Welton, Lynn. University of the Witwatersrand; Sudáfrica Fil: Zanon, Marco. Institute of Pre- and Protohistoric Archaeology; Alemania

Climate has emerged as one of a number of themes in debates concerning the formation and disaggregation of African state structures before the colonial era. The proliferation of paleoclimatic data series from “natural archives” such as tree-rings has shed increasing light on changes in temperature and precipitation stretching back millennia. Such long-term climatic changes could have enduring effects on human livelihoods in agriculturally marginal areas. The apparent coincidence of periods of climatic change with major turning points in African history over the last millennium has therefore led to claims of causation, with early moves towards state formation in the Shashe–Limpopo basin (c. 1000–1220ce) and in KwaZulu-Natal (c. 1750–1800) linked to contemporaneous warm–wet conditions, and the decline, or “collapse,” of state structures, including Mapungubwe (c. 1300ce) and Great Zimbabwe (c. 1450ce), linked to a shift to cooler and drier regional climates. Recent literature from both within and outside of the southern African context has begun to question the veracity of climate-driven historical change. In the southern African case, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning the climate history of the region prior to 1800. The climatic signatures captured by some records are ambiguous in their representation of temperature or precipitation, while many long-duration climate records available for southern Africa are simply of insufficient temporal resolution to capture the short-term extremes in rainfall that have proved challenging to societies in more recent centuries. Even where there is robust evidence for the coincidence of wet or dry conditions with societal change, African farming communities were far from passive observers, but responded to environmental stress in a variety of ways. The relative length, continuity and richness of the historical record in Zimbabwe and Mozambique after. c. 1505 provides opportunities to look more closely at these relationships. From the early 16th century onwards, Portuguese observers left records of those droughts which most impacted societies. These short-term extremes—usually back-to-back years of deficient, irregular or delayed rainfall, sometimes coupled with locust plagues—had varying effects between and within societies as they were “filtered” through different levels of societal vulnerability and resilience, which in turn engendered divergent responses. Analysis of over three centuries of written records on the pre-colonial period suggest that climate-related stress alone, while sometimes leading to famine, was rarely enough to cut deeper into the political fabric of the region; yet, when combined with weak institutional capacity, warfare, or increasingly uneven distributions of power, extreme and protracted droughts could prove decisive and help bring about transformations in society. The Mutapa state and lower Zambezi valley during the late 16th and early 19th centuries, as well as the Zulu kingdom in the 1820s, serve as cases in point.

The role of climate variability in pre-colonial southern African history is highly disputed. We here provide a synthesis and critique of climate-society discourses relating to two regionally-defining periods of state formation and disaggregation. The first period involves the eleventh-thirteenth century development of socio-political complexity and the rise of southern Africa's first state, Mapungubwe, followed by its collapse and the shift in regional power to Great Zimbabwe. The later period encompasses the early-nineteenth century difaqane/mfecane mass migrations, violence and ensuing state-building activity. To further our assessment, we consider the wider contentious issues of climate causation and determinism in a regional context, but dispute suggestions of paradigm shift towards simplistic environmental collapse. Nevertheless, we specifically point to ambiguities in palaeoclimate records, a narrative tendency toward monocausal explanations and a lack of integration among the literature as reasons for a sustained divergence in interpretation regarding the significance of climate. We move on to discuss the potential of integrative approaches to illuminate understanding of the complex interactions between past climate variability and human activity. In order to do so, we highlight interlinked concepts such as vulnerability and resilience as key for bridging the gap between the natural and social sciences. To conclude, we point to future climate-society priorities and ways forward in the form of research areas, data prospects and questions.

Climate variability has been causally linked to the transformation of society in pre‐industrial southeast Africa. A growing critique, however, challenges the simplicity of ideas that identify climate as an agent of past societal change; arguing instead that the value of historical climate–society research lies in understanding human vulnerability and resilience, as well as how past societies framed, responded and adapted to climatic phenomena. We work across this divide to present the first critical analysis of climate–society relationships in southeast Africa over the last millennium. To achieve this, we review the now considerable body of scholarship on the role of climate in regional societal transformation, and bring forward new perspectives on climate–society interactions across three areas and periods using the theoretical frameworks of vulnerability and resilience. We find that recent advances in paleoclimatology and archaeology give weight to the suggestion that responses to climate variability played an important part in early state formation in the Limpopo valley (1000–1300), though evidence remains insufficient to clarify similar debates concerning Great Zimbabwe (1300–1450/1520). Written and oral evidence from the Zambezi‐Save (1500–1830) and KwaZulu‐Natal areas (1760–1828) nevertheless reveals a plurality of past responses to climate variability. These were underpinned by the organization of food systems, the role of climate‐related ritual and political power, social networks, and livelihood assets and capabilities, as well as the nature of climate variability itself. To conclude, we identify new lines of research on climate, history and society, and discuss how these can more directly inform contemporary African climate adaptation challenges.

Atmospheric circulation in the oceans surrounding southern Africa plays an important role in determining its precipitation. This study uses wind information recorded in ships’ logbooks in order to statistically reconstruct summer and winter season precipitation at four southern African weather stations from 1796 to 1854. The reconstruction was obtained by first relating gridded 8° × 8° NCEP-DOE reanalysis seasonal mean wind vectors in the adjacent oceans to station precipitation. Over a 30-year calibration period (1979–2008), significant correlations between wind and precipitation at Cape Town, Mthatha and Royal National Park showed particular correspondence with those areas with the greatest concentration of logbook observations. Principal component regression was used to assess the potential of the dominant patterns of variability in the wind vectors as predictors to reconstruct precipitation. Cross-validation in the calibration period gave confidence that precipitation could be reconstructed at several stations across South Africa, meaning the regression relationships derived in the calibration period could be applied to the gridded seasonal mean logbook data to produce reconstructions of precipitation from 1796 to 1854. The reconstructions show a degree of correspondence with other regional data sets. For instance, the decade beginning in 1810 was the wettest of the period at Mthatha and Royal National Park, while the 1820s were the driest. At Cape Town, the 1820s were the wettest decade, with drier conditions observed in the 1830s. An index of west–east circulation in the summer season revealed correspondence with two documentary reconstructions of El Niño events and increased westerliness, although this did not always result in drier conditions. Attention is also drawn to the remaining 3000 yet to be digitised English East India Company logbooks which would provide a high-resolution picture of atmospheric circulation back to 1700 in the region under consideration.

Over the last two decades, the causal role of climate in African history has been the subject of renewed debate. In many cases, however, the limitations of extant methodological approaches have contributed to a tendency to view climate as a monocausal factor in past human events, leading to revived criticism of the concept of climatic causation. Similar claims have also surfaced regarding approaches to evaluating the potential impacts of future climate change, where it has been suggested that the predictive hegemony of modelling has left the future of humankind “reduced to climate”, thereby overlooking the human factors that determine the magnitude of its impacts. In the context of urgent present and future African environmental challenges, questions over the concept of causation underline the need for further interdisciplinary research at the climate-society interface. One approach that can contribute to this discourse is assembling well-founded historical perspectives on climate–society interactions through the analytical framework of climate history. Indeed, studying the past is the only way we can examine the effects of and responses to shifts in physical systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an up-to-date starting point for such analyses in an African context. Using selected southern African case studies, previous approaches relating to climate and societal dynamics are first evaluated. Climate history is subsequently posited as a paradigm which is well-placed to deepen knowledge on long-term climate-society interactions, fitting alongside and incorporating key established paradigms such as vulnerability and resilience. Three key areas are highlighted for this challenge: climate reconstruction; understanding past human–climate interaction and vulnerability, and examination of societal resilience to climate change impacts. New research areas are then presented where studying the past can inform consideration of important future challenges, and the paper concludes by calling for the development of African climate histories on various spatial and temporal scales.