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The purpose of the paper is to analyse the possible parameters of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) as they would occur in the Baltic Sea area at the end of the 21st century and in the past during the Holocene thermal maximum. Using a modelling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) atmospheric model, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and surrogate background conditions, the results showed that changes in cyclone parameters are more profound under steeper climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) and under higher air temperatures. Most likely, the North Atlantic ETCs will become slightly stronger, but also the uncertainty increases. Nonlinear interactions between ice melt, North Atlantic current systems and atmospheric parameters probably induce an uncertainty both into future and past storminess reconstructions.

Hydropower operations are commonly prescribed as part of a grid-wide coordination process by an Independent System Operator (ISO). The scheduling problem is usually divided into two coupled problems: short- and medium-term scheduling. The medium term problem, usually within a planning horizon of a few years, takes into account uncertain inflows to every hydropower plant in the grid. This uncertainty is often represented by a scenario tree constructed from historical records. The result of this stochastic optimization problem is a set of Future Value Functions (FVF) of water in the reservoirs. These functions represent the carryover storage value, as avoided future thermal costs, for each week within the planning horizon. These FVFs are then used as a boundary condition for short-term scheduling within each week.Chile has suffered a 10-year severe drought since 2010. Moreover, climate projections for Chile suggest an intensification of droughts in the future, in terms of both frequency and magnitude. From the water-energy nexus perspective, this phenomenon would rise energy costs and prices, and at the same time, push the electric coordinator to feed the system with less clean sources of electricity.This work proposes and tests alternative ways to introduce plausible mega-droughts in Chile as part of the power scheduling process. We develop series representing plausible future conditions of drought and severe drought, preserving the time and spatial correlation structure of inflows. These scenarios are then used, along with historical information, to develop FVFs that take into account those severe drought scenarios. The method is tested in Chile’s main grid, represented by 624 power plants, 103 inflow points, 13 reservoirs, and 58 demand nodes.The FVFs obtained from each alternative approach are then simulated under a wide range of futures. Results show that the introducing very severe droughts is not the best course of action, as the corresponding FVFs perform very poorly under moderately dry futures. In contrast, introducing scenarios with a moderate dry bias performs better over a wide range of future conditions, except for extremely severe droughts.

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS Define the anatomic distribution of the olfactory filaments within specific mucosal regions of the nasal cavity. STUDY DESIGN Cadaveric study. METHODS Seventeen cadaveric specimens (34 sides) were dissected to study the anatomical distribution and density of olfactory fila within different regions of the nasal cavity. Olfactory fila were dissected retrogradely to their point of entry into the anterior cranial fossa through the cribriform plate. Anatomic relationships among various components of the olfactory system and their corresponding arterial supply were determined subjectively. RESULTS The highest density of olfactory fila was found at the mucosa of the ethmoid roof and superior turbinates. Olfactory fila were found at regions not previously considered to be part of the olfactory system: lateral wall of the nose, ethmoidal bullae, and between the os sphenoidale and arc of the posterior choana. Furthermore, at the septum, 20% of the olfactory fila crossed contralaterally before exiting the nose. The anterior ethmoidal arteries were the primary blood supply to the olfactory epithelium. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that olfactory filaments extend beyond previously established boundaries. These findings may have clinical implications regarding oncologic resections and could serve as the foundation for the development of techniques that better preserve olfactory function. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE NA Laryngoscope, 2473-2477, 2018.

Background The origin of the ophthalmic artery is within the surgical field of endoscopic endonasal approaches (EEAs) to the suprasellar and parasellar regions. However, its anatomy from the endoscopic point-of-view has not been adequately elucidated. Objective To highlight the anatomy of the ophthalmic artery origin from an endoscopic endonasal perspective. Methods The origin of the ophthalmic artery was studied bilaterally under endoscopic visualization, after performing transplanum/transtubercular EEAs in 17 cadaveric specimens (34 arteries). Anatomic relationships relevant to surgery were evaluated. To complement the cadaveric findings, the ophthalmic artery origin was reviewed in 200 "normal" angiographic studies. Results On the right side, 70.6% of ophthalmic arteries emerged from the superior aspect, while 17.6% and 11.8% emerged from the superomedial and superolateral aspects of the intradural internal carotid artery, respectively. On the left, 76.5%, 17.6%, and 5.9% of ophthalmic arteries emerged from the superior, superomedial, and superolateral aspects of the internal carotid, respectively. Similar findings were observed on angiography. All ophthalmic arteries emerged at the level of the medial opticocarotid recess. Overall, 47%, 26.5%, and 26.5% of ophthalmic arteries (right and left) were inferolateral, inferior, and inferomedial to the intracranial optic nerve segment, respectively. On both sides, the intracranial length of the ophthalmic artery ranged from 1.5 to 4.5 mm (mean: 2.90 ± standard deviation of 0.74 mm). Conclusion Awareness of the endoscopic nuances of the ophthalmic artery origin is paramount to minimize the risk of sight-threatening neurovascular injury during EEAs to the suprasellar and parasellar regions.

Objectives/hypothesis To demonstrate anatomic relationships of the far-medial transoral endoscopic assisted approach (FMT-EAA) to the infratemporal fossa (ITF) and define the corridor dimensions, surgical freedom, and limitations associated with this approach. Study design Cadaveric study. Methods Twenty ITFs (10 specimens) were dissected with the assistance of 0 °, 30 °, and 45 ° rod-lens endoscopes. Image guidance was used to confirm and measure the corridors' structural boundaries and document the anatomical relationships encountered in this approach. Results Access to the ITF via the FMT-EAA can be divided into two secondary surgical corridors: the superomedial and inferolateral triangles, each of which provides access to different areas. The superomedial triangle is bounded medially by the lateral pterygoid plate and posterolateral maxillary sinus wall, superiorly by the greater sphenoid wing, and inferolaterally by the lateral pterygoid muscle. The inferolateral triangle is bounded superiorly by the lower head of the lateral pterygoid muscle, inferiorly by the medial pterygoid muscle, and laterally by the mandible. Using a standard 19-mm endoscope, the FMT-EAA achieves a mean surgical freedom of 231 mm and 161 mm in the vertical and horizontal planes, respectively. Conclusions FMT-EAA adequately exposes critical structures of the ITF. This technique is a viable option for the management of selected ITF lesions, either alone or in combination with alternative minimally invasive approaches to the region. Level of evidence NA Laryngoscope, 128:2273-2281, 2018.

Background Transorbital and subtemporal keyhole approaches have recently been proposed to approach lesions in the lateral wall of the cavernous sinus (CS) and Meckel's cave (MC). Our goal was to compare these approaches and suggest indications for each of them. Methods Five cadaver heads (10 sides, 40 procedures) were used. The lateral transorbital approaches were carried out without and with the removal of the lateral orbital rim, herein referred to as the lateral transorbital approach (LTOA) and the lateral orbital wall approach (LOWA). The subtemporal approaches were performed without and with the removal of the zygomatic arch, referred to as the subtemporal approach (STA) and the subtemporozygomatic approach (STZA). Five targets were chosen and 2 triangles were created representing the lateral wall of the CS and MC. Stereotactic measurements were quantified to calculate angles of attack, surgical freedom, and temporal lobe retraction for each approach. Results LTOA presented the smaller horizontal angles of attack. LOWA increased the angles to the same level of STA and STZA. STA and STZA presented larger vertical angles of attack. The surgical freedom presented gradual increase from LTOA to LOWA, STA, and STZA. STA and STZA needed greater temporal lobe retraction for most targets. Conclusions LTOA is a good option to biopsy a lesion in the lateral wall of the CS and LOWA increased the surgical corridor to work with microsurgical techniques. STA and STZA could be better options when wide exposure is necessary, but temporal lobe retraction should be taken into consideration.

Background Intracranial aneurysms (IAs) located in the midline region represent formidable challenge owing to their deep location. The objective of this study was to assess feasibility and identify the limitations of endoscopic endonasal clipping of IAs. We further aimed to describe the locations and characteristics of aneurysms that may be amenable for endoscopic endonasal clipping; thus outlining the indications of these approaches. Methods Fifteen latex-injected cadaveric heads were used for endoscopic endonasal exposure of anterior and posterior cerebral circulations. An aneurysm simulator model with 2 different sizes was used at the common sites for IAs to emulate a real surgery. Key measured parameters included “exposure of vessels and their respective perforators,” “ability to gain proximal/distal control,” and “possibility of clip placement” according to the size, direction, and location of the aneurysm model. Maneuverability of instruments and the need for pituitary gland transposition were assessed and recorded as well. Results Exposure of the anterior communicating artery complex and the common sites of posterior circulation aneurysms were feasible. The size, location, and direction of the aneurysm model had an impact on obtaining proximal and/or distal control, and the ability of clip placement. Conclusions Clipping of midline aneurysms of the posterior circulation is feasible via endoscopic endonasal approach. Small-sized ventrally and medially directed aneurysm models carried a better probability of getting proximal and/or distal control, as well as better overall ability to place a clip. The endonasal route seems to provide a limited condition for proper management of anterior circulation aneurysms.

To demonstrate anatomic relationships of the far-medial transoral endoscopic assisted approach (FMT-EAA) to the infratemporal fossa (ITF) and define the corridor dimensions, surgical freedom, and limitations associated with this approach.Cadaveric study.Twenty ITFs (10 specimens) were dissected with the assistance of 0 °, 30 °, and 45 ° rod-lens endoscopes. Image guidance was used to confirm and measure the corridors' structural boundaries and document the anatomical relationships encountered in this approach.Access to the ITF via the FMT-EAA can be divided into two secondary surgical corridors: the superomedial and inferolateral triangles, each of which provides access to different areas. The superomedial triangle is bounded medially by the lateral pterygoid plate and posterolateral maxillary sinus wall, superiorly by the greater sphenoid wing, and inferolaterally by the lateral pterygoid muscle. The inferolateral triangle is bounded superiorly by the lower head of the lateral pterygoid muscle, inferiorly by the medial pterygoid muscle, and laterally by the mandible. Using a standard 19-mm endoscope, the FMT-EAA achieves a mean surgical freedom of 231 mm and 161 mm in the vertical and horizontal planes, respectively.FMT-EAA adequately exposes critical structures of the ITF. This technique is a viable option for the management of selected ITF lesions, either alone or in combination with alternative minimally invasive approaches to the region.NA Laryngoscope, 128:2273-2281, 2018.

Intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is an effective therapy in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), but it has limitations in terms of recurrence and toxicity.To determine whether the sequential combination of mitomycin C (MMC) and BCG is superior to BCG alone in increasing a disease-free interval (DFI).We conducted a prospective randomized trial including 407 patients with intermediate- to high-risk NMIBC and allocated 211 to the MMC and BCG arm and 196 to the BCG-alone arm.The trial was designed to provide concurrently a power of 80% for the detection of a relative risk reduction of 35% (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.65) of disease relapse with a type I error of 0.05. Times to events were estimated using cumulative incidence functions and compared using the Cox regression model. We used the Kaplan-Meier technique to estimate survival curves.In the intention-to-treat analysis at 5 yr, DFI was significantly improved by the sequential scheme (HR: 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-0.83; p=0.003), reducing the disease relapse rate from 33.9% to 20.6%. Higher toxicity was observed with the combination, even reducing the MMC dose, especially in G3 local toxicity compared with BCG with a difference of 17.4% (95% CI, 7.6-27.2; p0.001). In recurrent T1 tumors, the potential benefit of the sequential scheme was more evident than in the remaining subgroup (18.8% vs 12.8%), with a number needed to treat of five versus eight to avoid an event and with similar toxicity.Although the sequential scheme is more effective than BCG alone in reducing disease relapse, due to higher toxicity it could be offered only to patients with a high likelihood of recurrence, such as those with recurrent T1 tumors.We analyzed the outcomes of a randomized trial demonstrating that in intermediate- to high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, mitomycin C and bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) reduced disease relapse compared with BCG alone but was more toxic. Consequently, it could be offered only to patients with recurrent T1 tumors.CUETO 93009.