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The high economic impact and zoonotic potential of avian influenza call for detailed investigations of dispersal dynamics of epidemics. We integrated phylogeographic and epidemiologic analyses to investigate the dynamics of a low pathogenicity avian influenza (H3N1) epidemic that occurred in Belgium during 2019. Virus genomes from 104 clinical samples originating from 85% of affected farms were sequenced. A spatially explicit phylogeographic analysis confirmed a dominating northeast to southwest dispersal direction and a long-distance dispersal event linked to direct live animal transportation between farms. Spatiotemporal clustering, transport, and social contacts strongly correlated with the phylogeographic pattern of the epidemic. We detected only a limited association between wind direction and direction of viral lineage dispersal. Our results highlight the multifactorial nature of avian influenza epidemics and illustrate the use of genomic analyses of virus dispersal to complement epidemiologic and environmental data, improve knowledge of avian influenza epidemiologic dynamics, and enhance control strategies., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Context: Resilience is the ability to deal with shocks and stresses, including the unknown and previously un-imaginable, such as the Covid-19 crisis. Objective: This paper assesses (i) how different farming systems were exposed to the crisis, (ii) which resilience capacities were revealed and (iii) how resilience was enabled or constrained by the farming systems’ social and institutional environment. Methods: The 11 farming systems included have been analysed since 2017. This allows a comparison of pre- Covid-19 findings and the Covid-19 crisis. Pre-Covid findings are from the SURE-Farm systematic sustainabil-ity and resilience assessment. For Covid-19 a special data collection was carried out during the early stage of lockdowns. Results and conclusions: Our case studies found limited impact of Covid-19 on the production and delivery of food and other agricultural products. This was due to either little exposure or the agile activation of robustness ca-pacities of the farming systems in combination with an enabling institutional environment. Revealed capacities were mainly based on already existing connectedness among farmers and more broadly in value chains. Across cases, the experience of the crisis triggered reflexivity about the operation of the farming systems. Recurring topics were the need for shorter chains, more fairness towards farmers, and less dependence on migrant workers. However, actors in the farming systems and the enabling environment generally focused on the immediate issues and gave little real consideration to long-term implications and challenges. Hence, adaptive or transformative capacities were much less on display than coping capacities. The comparison with pre-Covid findings mostly showed similarities. If challenges, such as shortage of labour, already loomed before, they persisted during the crisis. Furthermore, the eminent role of resilience attributes was confirmed. In cases with high connectedness and diversity we found that these syste

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparison

Recently, consumers’ awareness regarding food production has increased, leading to a growing focus on shorter food supply chains and regional or local food systems. In the livestock sector, these developments are closely related to a regionalization of feed production. At the same time, a low self-sufficiency rate in protein feed is being reported for many European countries. In this paper, we analyze market impacts resulting from a complete switch to regionally produced feed in the European livestock sector. We simulate a shortening of feed supply chains in European livestock production using a large-scale agricultural sector model. Livestock production was restricted to feed that can be produced within the same EU member state. Our work represents a first step towards a simulation of regional or local food systems. The results reveal large increases in the prices of livestock products in Europe due to the shortening of feed supply chains. This is a result of a significant increase in livestock production costs. The ability to supply livestock products with regionally produced feed in the EU would be improved through a reduced consumption of livestock products.

Understanding the distribution of policy incentives is important in evaluating the impact of promotion programmes. This study investigates the allocation of economic subsidies to jatropha cultivation by using adoption models at both the community and household levels in Chiapas. At the community level, we compared socioeconomic and environmental variables of the communities that adopted jatropha to non-adopters. At the household level, 420 farm households were surveyed to analyse both the determinants of adoption and the extent of adoption (i.e. hectares dedicated to jatropha). The variables determining adoption were analysed at both levels using generalised linear models. The extent of jatropha adoption was assessed using ordinary least squares multiple regression. Quantitative data was complemented with key stakeholder interviews and focus groups. Results show that subsidies tend to be allocated to larger, better-connected communities which have access to better services. Within adopter communities, the subsidy is distributed among households that have more resources, better risk-coping strategies, better access to information, more experience with similar technologies and whose attitude towards risk is positive. This study provides lessons that can be useful for the introduction of new energy crops to better reach the target group and ultimately achieve the aims of energy promotion strategies., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The largest portion of a product’s environmental impacts and costs of manufacturing and use results from decisions taken in the conceptual design phase long before its market entry. To foster sustainable production patterns, applying life cycle assessment in the early product development stage is gaining importance. Following recent scientific studies on using dipteran fly species for waste management, this paper presents an assessment of two insect-based manure treatment systems. Considering the necessity of manure treatment in regions with concentrated animal operations, reducing excess manure volumes with the means of insects presents a potentially convenient method to combine waste reduction and nutrient recovery. An analytical comparison of rearing houseflies on fresh and pre-treated pig manure is reported with reference to agricultural land occupation, water and fossil depletion potential. Based on ex-ante modelled industrial scale rearing systems, the driving factors of performance and environmentally sensitive aspects of the rearing process have been assessed. Expressed per kg manure dry matter reduction, the estimated agricultural land occupation varied between 1.4 and 2.7 m2yr, fossil depletion potential ranged from 1.9 to 3.4 kgoil eq and the obtained water depletion potential was calculated from 36.4 to 65.6 m3. System improvement potential was identified for heating related energy usage and water consumption. The geographical context and the utility of the co-products, i.e. residue substrates and insect products, were determined as influential variables to the application potential of this novel manure treatment concept. The results of this study, applied at the earliest stages of the design of the process, assist evaluation of the feasibility of such a system and provide guidance for future research and development activities.

Due to higher oil prices, abundance of labor and suitable land and its stable political climate, Tanzania attracted many investments in Jatropha. Although several studies on Jatropha's economic potential are available, its true economics are still uncertain. This paper aims to add to the growing body of knowledge on the socio-economic performance of the Jatropha system by (i) studying the economic potential (net present value - NPV) of the current most prevailing Jatropha system for Tanzanian farmers and its regional differences, by (ii) making a greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and its economic value of the Jatropha activities on regional level, and by (iii) calculating break-even thresholds for yield and seed price. Therefore, regional yield modeling, regional life-cycle assessment, and NPV calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations, each with its set of assumptions, are combined. This study shows positive economic potential of Jatropha cultivation in most of the Tanzanian regions. However, the results also show that 13 of 20 Tanzanian regions will not attain a net positive GHG balance within 10 years. This indicates that the environmental impacts might be more restrictive for Jatropha's sustainability potential in Tanzania than the socio-economic potential. These results are based on the combination of three models, which consists of strong interdisciplinary modeling work. However, this modeling also contains simplifications (e.g. no opportunity cost for 'marginal' land) and uncertainties (e.g. using globally modeled potential yield estimations), which have to be considered in the interpretation of the results., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

iiTSE, info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

It is not uncommon that new crops suddenly attract a lot and international attention from private and public actors based on their acclaimed potential to contribute to sustainable development. Such sharp increases in attention can lead to big investments and promotion campaigns to domesticate and commercialize these crops at industrial scale. However, in many cases the research of these plants is still in its infancy and investors generally lack sufficient insight into uncertainties and risks related to their investments, which consequently hold sustainability risks. © 2014 by the authors., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Internationally, the importance of a coordinated effort to protect both biodiversity and public health is more and more recognized. These issues are often concentrated or particularly challenging in urban areas, and therefore on-going urbanization worldwide raises particular issues both for the conservation of living natural resources and for population health strategies. These challenges include significant difficulties associated with sustainable management of urban ecosystems, urban development planning, social cohesion and public health. An important element of the challenge is the need to interface between different forms of knowledge and different actors from science and policy. We illustrate this with examples from Belgium, showcasing concrete cases of human-nature interaction. To better tackle these challenges, since 2011, actors in science, policy and the broader Belgian society have launched a number of initiatives to deal in a more integrated manner with combined biodiversity and public health challenges in the face of ongoing urbanization. This emerging community of practice in Belgium exemplifies the importance of interfacing at different levels. (1) Bridges must be built between science and the complex biodiversity/ecosystem-human/public health-urbanization phenomena. (2) Bridges between different professional communities and disciplines are urgently needed. (3) Closer collaboration between science and policy, and between science and societal practice is needed. Moreover, within each of these communities closer collaboration between specialized sections is needed.

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Internationally, the importance of a coordinated effort to protect both biodiversity and public health is more and more recognized. These issues are often concentrated or particularly challenging in urban areas, and therefore on-going urbanization worldwide raises particular issues both for the conservation of living natural resources and for population health strategies. These challenges include significant difficulties associated with sustainable management of urban ecosystems, urban development planning, social cohesion and public health. An important element of the challenge is the need to interface between different forms of knowledge and different actors from science and policy. We illustrate this with examples from Belgium, showcasing concrete cases of human–nature interaction. To better tackle these challenges, since 2011, actors in science, policy and the broader Belgian society have launched a number of initiatives to deal in a more integrated manner with combined biodiversity and public health challenges in the face of ongoing urbanization. This emerging community of practice in Belgium exemplifies the importance of interfacing at different levels. (1) Bridges must be built between science and the complex biodiversity/ecosystem–human/public health–urbanization phenomena. (2) Bridges between different professional communities and disciplines are urgently needed. (3) Closer collaboration between science and policy, and between science and societal practice is needed. Moreover, within each of these communities closer collaboration between specialized sections is needed., SCOPUS: ar.j, iiTSE, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Commemorative of the Belgian Association of Agricultural Economists for 30 years of existence

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

In a greenhouse experiment we applied three levels of drought stress and monitored growth variables and biomass production of Jatropha curcas seedlings propagated from three seed accessions. We determined biomass allocation, allometric relationships and plant traits. Well-watered J. curcas seedlings grew 0.81 ± 0.15 cm day-1 in length and produced 1.49 ± 0.31 g dry biomass day-1. Under medium stress (40% plant available water) the plants maintained a similar stem shape, although they grew at lower rate (stem length: 0.28 ± 0.11 cm day-1; dry biomass production: 0.64 ± 0.18 g day-1). Seedlings under extreme drought stress (no irrigation) stopped growing, started shedding leaves and showed shrinking stem diameter from the 12th day after the start of the drought treatment. The drought treatment did not influence the wood density (0.26 g cm-3). The root/shoot ratio of the wet treatment was 0.27, which is low compared to other tropical trees. Both the biomass allocation and root/shoot were significantly influenced by drought. Plants of the different accessions were uniform in biomass production and plant traits. The allometric relationship predicting total aboveground biomass (B) with the stem diameter (D) (B = 0.029 × D2.33; R2 = 0.89) fits well in universal scaling models in which the exponent is expected to converge to ∼2.67 at plant maturity. Based on a small validation data set from mature J. curcas individuals this hypothesis could be confirmed. A second regression model predicts the total leaf area (LA) as a function of stem diameter (LA = 2.03 × D2.41; R2 = 0.95). The estimated transpiration crop coefficient Kcb ranged from 0.51 to 0.60 for the well-watered plants. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.