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The solar wind drag-based model is a widely used framework for predicting the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) through interplanetary space. This model primarily considers the aerodynamic drag exerted by the solar wind on CMEs. However, factors like magnetic forces, pressure gradients, and the internal dynamics within CMEs justify the need of introducing an additional small-scale acceleration term in the game. Indeed, by accounting for this extra acceleration, the extended drag-based model is shown to offer improved accuracy in describing the evolution of CMEs through the heliosphere and, in turn, in forecasting CME trajectories and arrival times at Earth. This enhancement is crucial for better predicting Space Weather events and mitigating their potential impacts on space-based and terrestrial technologies.

Imaging spectroscopy, i.e., the generation of spatially resolved count spectra and of cubes of count maps at different energies, is one of the main goals of solar hard X-ray missions based on Fourier imaging. For these telescopes, so far imaging spectroscopy has been realized via the generation of either count maps independently reconstructed at the different energy channels, or electron flux maps reconstructed via deconvolution of the bremsstrahlung cross-section. Our aim is to introduce the Regularized Imaging Spectroscopy method (RIS), in which regularization implemented in the count space imposes a smoothing constraint across contiguous energy channels, without the need to deconvolve the bremsstrahlung effect. STIX records imaging data computing visibilities in the spatial frequency domain. Our RIS is a sequential scheme in which part of the information coded in the image reconstructed at a specific energy channel is transferred to the reconstruction process at a contiguous channel via visibility interpolation based on Variably Scaled Kernels. In the case of STIX visibilities recorded during the November 11, 2022 flaring event, we show that RIS is able to generate hard X-ray maps whose morphology smoothly evolves from one energy channel to the contiguous one, and that from these maps it is possible to infer spatially-resolved count spectra characterized by notable numerical stability. We also show that the performances of this approach are robust with respect to both the image reconstruction method and the count energy channel utilized to trigger the sequential process. RIS is appropriate to construct image cubes from STIX visibilities that are characterized by a smooth behavior across count energies, thus allowing the generation of numerically stable (and, thus, physically reliable) local count spectra.

This study addresses the prediction of geomagnetic disturbances by exploiting machine learning techniques. Specifically, the Long-Short Term Memory recurrent neural network, which is particularly suited for application over long time series, is employed in the analysis of in-situ measurements of solar wind plasma and magnetic field acquired over more than one solar cycle, from $2005$ to $2019$, at the Lagrangian point L$1$. The problem is approached as a binary classification aiming to predict one hour in advance a decrease in the SYM-H geomagnetic activity index below the threshold of $-50$ nT, which is generally regarded as indicative of magnetospheric perturbations. The strong class imbalance issue is tackled by using an appropriate loss function tailored to optimize appropriate skill scores in the training phase of the neural network. Beside classical skill scores, value-weighted skill scores are then employed to evaluate predictions, suitable in the study of problems, such as the one faced here, characterized by strong temporal variability. For the first time, the content of magnetic helicity and energy carried by solar transients, associated with their detection and likelihood of geo-effectiveness, were considered as input features of the network architecture. Their predictive capabilities are demonstrated through a correlation-driven feature selection method to rank the most relevant characteristics involved in the neural network prediction model. The optimal performance of the adopted neural network in properly forecasting the onset of geomagnetic storms, which is a crucial point for giving real warnings in an operational setting, is finally showed.

AI-FLARES (Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data) is a research project funded by the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica within the framework of the ``Attivit\`a di Studio per la Comunit\`a Scientifica Nazionale Sole, Sistema Solare ed Esopianeti'' program. The topic addressed by this project was the development and use of computational methods for the analysis of remote sensing space data associated to solar flare emission. This paper overviews the main results obtained by the project, with specific focus on solar flare forecasting, reconstruction of morphologies of the flaring sources, and interpretation of acceleration mechanisms triggered by solar flares.

Regularized imaging spectroscopy was introduced for the construction of electron flux images at different energies from count visibilities recorded by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). In this work we seek to extend this approach to data from the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on-board the Solar Orbiter mission. Our aims are to demonstrate the feasibility of regularized imaging spectroscopy as a method for analysis of STIX data, and also to show how such analysis can lead to insights into the physical processes affecting the nonthermal electrons responsible for the hard X-ray emission observed by STIX. STIX records imaging data in an intrinsically different manner from RHESSI. Rather than sweeping the angular frequency plane in a set of concentric circles (one circle per detector), STIX uses $30$ collimators, each corresponding to a specific angular frequency. In this paper we derive an appropriate modification of the previous computational approach for the analysis of the visibilities observed by STIX. This approach also allows for the observed count data to be placed into non-uniformly-spaced energy bins. We show that the regularized imaging spectroscopy approach is not only feasible for analysis of the visibilities observed by STIX, but also more reliable. Application of the regularized imaging spectroscopy technique to several well-observed flares reveals details of the variation of the electron flux spectrum throughout the flare sources. We conclude that the visibility-based regularized imaging spectroscopy approach is well-suited to analysis of STIX data. We also use STIX electron flux spectral images to track, for the first time, the behavior of the accelerated electrons during their path from the acceleration site in the solar corona toward the chromosphere

Aims: To formulate, implement, and validate a user-independent release of CLEAN for Fourier-based image reconstruction of hard X-rays flaring sources. Methods: CLEAN is an iterative deconvolution method for radio and hard X-ray solar imaging. In a specific step of its pipeline, CLEAN requires the convolution between an idealized version of the instrumental Point Spread Function (PSF), and a map collecting point sources located at positions on the solar disk from where most of the flaring radiation is emitted. This convolution step has highly heuristic motivations and the shape of the idealized PSF, which depends on the user's choice, impacts the shape of the overall reconstruction. Here we propose the use of an interpolation/extrapolation process to avoid this user-dependent step, and to realize a completely unbiased version of CLEAN. Results: Applications to observations recorded by the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on-board Solar Orbiter show that this unbiased release of CLEAN outperforms the standard version of the algorithm in terms of both automation and reconstruction reliability, with reconstructions whose accuracy is in line with the one offered by other imaging methods developed in the STIX framework. Conclusions: This unbiased version of CLEAN proposes a feasible solution to a well-known open issue concerning CLEAN, i.e., its low degree of automation. Further, this study provided the first application of an interpolation/extrapolation approach to image reconstruction from STIX experimental visibilities.

FOXSI is a direct-imaging, hard X-ray (HXR) telescope optimized for solar flare observations. It detects hot plasma and energetic electrons in and near energy release sites in the solar corona via bremsstrahlung emission, measuring both spatial structure and particle energy distributions. It provides two orders of magnitude faster imaging spectroscopy than previously available, probing physically relevant timescales (<1s) never before accessible to address fundamental questions of energy release and efficient particle acceleration that have importance far beyond their solar application (e.g., planetary magnetospheres, flaring stars, accretion disks). FOXSI measures not only the bright chromospheric X-ray emission where electrons lose most of their energy, but also simultaneous emission from electrons as they are accelerated in the corona and propagate along magnetic field lines. FOXSI detects emission from high in the tenuous corona, where previous instruments have been blinded by nearby bright features and will fully characterizes the accelerated electrons and hottest plasmas as they evolve in energy, space, and time to solve the mystery of how impulsive energy release leads to solar eruptions, the primary drivers of space weather at Earth, and how those eruptions are energized and evolve., Comment: White paper submitted to the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2024-2033; 14 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

This Letter reports the first observational estimate of the heating rate in the slowly expanding solar corona. The analysis exploits the simultaneous remote and local observations of the same coronal plasma volume with the Solar Orbiter/Metis and the Parker Solar Probe instruments, respectively, and relies on the basic solar wind magnetohydrodynamic equations. As expected, energy losses are a minor fraction of the solar wind energy flux, since most of the energy dissipation that feeds the heating and acceleration of the coronal flow occurs much closer to the Sun than the heights probed in the present study, which range from 6.3 to 13.3 solar radii. The energy deposited to the supersonic wind is then used to explain the observed slight residual wind acceleration and to maintain the plasma in a non-adiabatic state. As derived in the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin limit, the present energy transfer rate estimates provide a lower limit, which can be very useful in refining the turbulence-based modeling of coronal heating and subsequent solar wind acceleration.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) correspond to dramatic expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the solar corona into the heliosphere. CMEs are scientifically relevant because they are involved in the physical mechanisms characterizing the active Sun. However, more recently CMEs have attracted attention for their impact on space weather, as they are correlated to geomagnetic storms and may induce the generation of Solar Energetic Particles streams. In this space weather framework, the present paper introduces a physics-driven artificial intelligence (AI) approach to the prediction of CMEs travel time, in which the deterministic drag-based model is exploited to improve the training phase of a cascade of two neural networks fed with both remote sensing and in-situ data. This study shows that the use of physical information in the AI architecture significantly improves both the accuracy and the robustness of the travel time prediction.

Variably scaled kernels and mapped bases constructed via the so-called fake nodes approach are two different strategies to provide adaptive bases for function interpolation. In this paper, we focus on kernel-based interpolation and we present what we call mapped variably scaled kernels, which take advantage of both strategies. We present some theoretical analysis and then we show their efficacy via numerical experiments. Moreover, we test such a new basis for image reconstruction tasks in the framework of hard X-ray astronomical imaging.

Multi-scale deconvolution is an ill-posed inverse problem in imaging, with applications ranging from microscopy, through medical imaging, to astronomical remote sensing. In the case of high-energy space telescopes, multi-scale deconvolution algorithms need to account for the peculiar property of native measurements, which are sparse samples of the Fourier transform of the incoming radiation. The present paper proposes a multi-scale version of CLEAN, which is the most popular iterative deconvolution method in Fourier space imaging. Using synthetic data generated according to a simulated but realistic source configuration, we show that this multi-scale version of CLEAN performs better than the original one in terms of accuracy, photometry, and regularization. Further, the application to a data set measured by the NASA Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) shows the ability of multi-scale CLEAN to reconstruct rather complex topographies, characteristic of a real flaring event.

Aims. To provide a schematic mathematical description of the imaging concept of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on board Solar Orbiter. The derived model is the fundamental starting point for both the interpretation of STIX data and the description of the data calibration process. Methods. We describe the STIX indirect imaging technique which is based on spatial modulation of the X-ray photon flux by means of tungsten grids. We show that each of 30 STIX imaging sub-collimators measures a complex Fourier component of the flaring X-ray source corresponding to a specific angular frequency. We also provide details about the count distribution model, which describes the relationship between the photon flux and the measured pixel counts. Results. We define the image reconstruction problem for STIX from both visibilities and photon counts. We provide an overview of the algorithms implemented for the solution of the imaging problem, and a comparison of the results obtained with these different methods in the case of the SOL2022-03-31T18 flaring event.

Aima. To determine to what extent the problem of forward fitting visibilities measured by the Spectrometer/Telescope Imaging X-rays (STIX) on-board Solar Orbiter is more challenging with respect to the same problem in the case of previous hard X-ray solar imaging missions; to identify an effective optimization scheme for parametric imaging for STIX. Methods. This paper introduces a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm for forward fitting STIX visibilities and compares its effectiveness with respect to the standard simplex-based optimization algorithm used so far for the analysis of visibilities measured by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). This comparison is made by considering experimental visibilities measured by both RHESSI and STIX, and synthetic visibilities generated by accounting for the STIX signal formation model. Results. We found out that the parametric imaging approach based on PSO is as reliable as the one based on the simplex method in the case of RHESSI visibilities. However, PSO is significantly more robust when applied to STIX simulated and experimental visibilities. Conclusions. Standard deterministic optimization is not effective enough for forward-fitting the few visibilities sampled by STIX in the angular frequency plane. Therefore a more sofisticated optimization scheme must be introduced for parametric imaging in the case of the Solar Orbiter X-ray telescope. The forward-fitting routine based on PSO we introduced in this paper proved to be significantly robust and reliable, and could be considered as an effective candidate tool for parametric imaging in the STIX context.

Context. The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is one of 6 remote sensing instruments on-board Solar Orbiter. It provides hard X-ray imaging spectroscopy of solar flares by sampling the Fourier transform of the incoming flux. Aims. To show that the visibility amplitude and phase calibration of 24 out of 30 STIX sub-collimators is well advanced and that a set of imaging methods is able to provide the first hard X-ray images of the flaring Sun from Solar Orbiter. Methods. We applied four visibility-based image reconstruction methods and a count-based one to calibrated STIX observations. The resulting reconstructions are compared to those provided by an optimization algorithm used for fitting the amplitudes of STIX visibilities. Results. When applied to six flares with GOES class between C4 and M4 which occurred in May 2021, the five imaging methods produce results morphologically consistent with the ones provided by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on-board the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO/AIA) in UV wavelengths. The $\chi^2$ values and the parameters of the reconstructed sources are comparable between methods, thus confirming their robustness. Conclusions. This paper shows that the current calibration of the main part of STIX sub-collimators has reached a satisfactory level for scientific data exploitation, and that the imaging algorithms already available in the STIX data analysis software provide reliable and robust reconstructions of the morphology of solar flares.

The evaluation of sky characteristics plays a fundamental role for many astrophysical experiments and ground-based observations. In solar physics, the main requirement for such observations is a very low sky brightness value, that is, less than one-millionth of the solar disk brightness. Few places match such requirement for ground-based, out-of-eclipse coronagraphic measurements. A candidate coronagraphic site is the Dome C plateau in Antarctica. In this paper, we show the first results of the sky brightness measurements at Dome C with the Extreme Solar Coronagraphy Antarctic Program Experiment (ESCAPE) at Italian-French Concordia Station, on Dome C, Antarctica (3300 m) during the summer XXXIV and XXXV Expeditions of the "Italian Piano Nazionale Ricerche Antartiche" (PNRA). The sky brightness measurements were carried out with the internally-occulted Antarctic coronagraph - AntarctiCor. In optimal atmospheric conditions, the sky brightness of Dome C has reached values of the order of 1.0 to 0.7 millionth of of the solar disk brightness.

This Letter addresses the first Solar Orbiter (SO) -- Parker Solar Probe (PSP) quadrature, occurring on January 18, 2021, to investigate the evolution of solar wind from the extended corona to the inner heliosphere. Assuming ballistic propagation, the same plasma volume observed remotely in corona at altitudes between 3.5 and 6.3 solar radii above the solar limb with the Metis coronagraph on SO can be tracked to PSP, orbiting at 0.1 au, thus allowing the local properties of the solar wind to be linked to the coronal source region from where it originated. Thanks to the close approach of PSP to the Sun and the simultaneous Metis observation of the solar corona, the flow-aligned magnetic field and the bulk kinetic energy flux density can be empirically inferred along the coronal current sheet with an unprecedented accuracy, allowing in particular estimation of the Alfv\'en radius at 8.7 solar radii during the time of this event. This is thus the very first study of the same solar wind plasma as it expands from the sub-Alfv\'enic solar corona to just above the Alfv\'en surface., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

The investigation of the wind in the solar corona initiated with the observations of the resonantly scattered UV emission of the coronal plasma obtained with UVCS-SOHO, designed to measure the wind outflow speed by applying the Doppler dimming diagnostics. Metis on Solar Orbiter complements the UVCS spectroscopic observations, performed during solar activity cycle 23, by simultaneously imaging the polarized visible light and the HI Ly-alpha corona in order to obtain high-spatial and temporal resolution maps of the outward velocity of the continuously expanding solar atmosphere. The Metis observations, on May 15, 2020, provide the first HI Ly-alpha images of the extended corona and the first instantaneous map of the speed of the coronal plasma outflows during the minimum of solar activity and allow us to identify the layer where the slow wind flow is observed. The polarized visible light (580-640 nm), and the UV HI Ly-alpha (121.6 nm) coronal emissions, obtained with the two Metis channels, are combined in order to measure the dimming of the UV emission relative to a static corona. This effect is caused by the outward motion of the coronal plasma along the direction of incidence of the chromospheric photons on the coronal neutral hydrogen. The plasma outflow velocity is then derived as a function of the measured Doppler dimming. The static corona UV emission is simulated on the basis of the plasma electron density inferred from the polarized visible light. This study leads to the identification, in the velocity maps of the solar corona, of the high-density layer about +/-10 deg wide, centered on the extension of a quiet equatorial streamer present at the East limb where the slowest wind flows at about (160 +/- 18) km/s from 4 Rs to 6 Rs. Beyond the boundaries of the high-density layer, the wind velocity rapidly increases, marking the transition between slow and fast wind in the corona.

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is the HXR instrument onboard Solar Orbiter designed to observe solar flares over a broad range of flare sizes, between 4-150 keV. We report the first STIX observations of microflares recorded during the instrument commissioning phase in order to investigate the STIX performance at its detection limit. This first result paper focuses on the temporal and spectral evolution of STIX microflares occuring in the AR12765 in June 2020, and compares the STIX measurements with GOES/XRS, SDO/AIA, and Hinode/XRT. For the observed microflares of the GOES A and B class, the STIX peak time at lowest energies is located in the impulsive phase of the flares, well before the GOES peak time. Such a behavior can either be explained by the higher sensitivity of STIX to higher temperatures compared to GOES, or due to the existence of a nonthermal component reaching down to low energies. The interpretation is inconclusive due to limited counting statistics for all but the largest flare in our sample. For this largest flare, the low-energy peak time is clearly due to thermal emission, and the nonthermal component seen at higher energies occurs even earlier. This suggests that the classic thermal explanation might also be favored for the majority of the smaller flares. In combination with EUV and SXR observations, STIX corroborates earlier findings that an isothermal assumption is of limited validity. Future diagnostic efforts should focus on multi-wavelength studies to derive differential emission measure distributions over a wide range of temperatures to accurately describe the energetics of solar flares. Commissioning observations confirm that STIX is working as designed. As a rule of thumb, STIX detects flares as small as the GOES A class. For flares above the GOES B class, detailed spectral and imaging analyses can be performed., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures

The EU funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from Jan 2015 until Feb 2018. FLARECAST had a R2O focus, and introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of hundreds of physical properties viewed as promising flare predictors on equal footing, extending multiple previous works; second, the use of fourteen (14) different ML techniques, also on equal footing, to optimize the immense Big Data parameter space created by these many predictors; third, the establishment of a robust, three-pronged communication effort oriented toward policy makers, space-weather stakeholders and the wider public. FLARECAST pledged to make all its data, codes and infrastructure openly available worldwide. The combined use of 170+ properties (a total of 209 predictors are now available) in multiple ML algorithms, some of which were designed exclusively for the project, gave rise to changing sets of best-performing predictors for the forecasting of different flaring levels. At the same time, FLARECAST reaffirmed the importance of rigorous training and testing practices to avoid overly optimistic pre-operational prediction performance. In addition, the project has (a) tested new and revisited physically intuitive flare predictors and (b) provided meaningful clues toward the transition from flares to eruptive flares, namely, events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These leads, along with the FLARECAST data, algorithms and infrastructure, could help facilitate integrated space-weather forecasting efforts that take steps to avoid effort duplication. In spite of being one of the most intensive and systematic flare forecasting efforts to-date, FLARECAST has not managed to convincingly lift the barrier of stochasticity in solar flare occurrence and forecasting: solar flare prediction thus remains inherently probabilistic., Comment: 67 pages, 14 figures; submitted

We investigate an interpolation/extrapolation method that, given scattered observations of the Fourier transform, approximates its inverse. The interpolation algorithm takes advantage of modelling the available data via a shape-driven interpolation based on Variably Scaled Kernels (VSKs), whose implementation is here tailored for inverse problems. The so-constructed interpolants are used as inputs for a standard iterative inversion scheme. After providing theoretical results concerning the spectrum of the VSK collocation matrix, we test the method on astrophysical imaging benchmarks.

Space telescopes for solar hard X-ray imaging provide observations made of sampled Fourier components of the incoming photon flux. The aim of this study is to design an image reconstruction method relying on enhanced visibility interpolation in the Fourier domain. % methods heading (mandatory) The interpolation-based method is applied on synthetic visibilities generated by means of the simulation software implemented within the framework of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) mission on board Solar Orbiter. An application to experimental visibilities observed by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) is also considered. In order to interpolate these visibility data we have utilized an approach based on Variably Scaled Kernels (VSKs), which are able to realize feature augmentation by exploiting prior information on the flaring source and which are used here, for the first time, for image reconstruction purposes.} % results heading (mandatory) When compared to an interpolation-based reconstruction algorithm previously introduced for RHESSI, VSKs offer significantly better performances, particularly in the case of STIX imaging, which is characterized by a notably sparse sampling of the Fourier domain. In the case of RHESSI data, this novel approach is particularly reliable when either the flaring sources are characterized by narrow, ribbon-like shapes or high-resolution detectors are utilized for observations. % conclusions heading (optional), leave it empty if necessary The use of VSKs for interpolating hard X-ray visibilities allows a notable image reconstruction accuracy when the information on the flaring source is encoded by a small set of scattered Fourier data and when the visibility surface is affected by significant oscillations in the frequency domain.

Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather. Yet, machine learning has not been able so far to realize an operating warning system for flaring storms and the scientific literature of the last decade suggests that its performances in the prediction of intense solar flares are not optimal. The main difficulties related to forecasting solar flaring storms are probably two. First, most methods are conceived to provide probabilistic predictions and not to send binary yes/no indications on the consecutive occurrence of flares along an extended time range. Second, flaring storms are typically characterized by the explosion of high energy events, which are seldom recorded in the databases of space missions; as a consequence, supervised methods are trained on very imbalanced historical sets, which makes them particularly ineffective for the forecasting of intense flares. Yet, in this study we show that supervised machine learning could be utilized in a way to send timely warnings about the most violent and most unexpected flaring event of the last decade, and even to predict with some accuracy the energy budget daily released by magnetic reconnection during the whole time course of the storm. Further, we show that the combination of sparsity-enhancing machine learning and feature ranking could allow the identification of the prominent role that energy played as an Active Region property in the forecasting process.

Maximum Entropy is an image reconstruction method conceived to image a sparsely occupied field of view and therefore particularly appropriate to achieve super-resolution effects. Although widely used in image deconvolution, this method has been formulated in radio astronomy for the analysis of observations in the spatial frequency domain, and an Interactive Data Language (IDL) code has been implemented for image reconstruction from solar X-ray Fourier data. However, this code relies on a non-convex formulation of the constrained optimization problem addressed by the Maximum Entropy approach and this sometimes results in unreliable reconstructions characterized by unphysical shrinking effects. This paper introduces a new approach to Maximum Entropy based on the constrained minimization of a convex functional. In the case of observations recorded by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), the resulting code provides the same super-resolution effects of the previous algorithm, while working properly also when that code produces unphysical reconstructions. Results are also provided of testing the algorithm with synthetic data simulating observations of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) in Solar Orbiter. The new code is available in the {\em{HESSI}} folder of the Solar SoftWare (SSW)tree.

Multiple Myeloma (MM) is a blood cancer implying bone marrow involvement, renal damages and osteolytic lesions. The skeleton involvement of MM is at the core of the present paper, exploiting radiomics and artificial intelligence to identify image-based biomarkers for MM. Preliminary results show that MM is associated to an extension of the intrabone volume for the whole body and that machine learning can identify CT image features mostly correlating with the disease evolution. This computational approach allows an automatic stratification of MM patients relying of these biomarkers and the formulation of a prognostic procedure for determining the disease follow-up.