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For patients with type 2 diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), access to newer antidiabetic drugs (eg, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 [SGLT2] inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 [GLP-1] receptor agonists, and insulin analogues) could reduce the incidence of diabetes-related complications. We aimed to estimate price targets to pursue in negotiations for inclusion in national formularies given the addition of these novel agents to WHO's Essential Medicines List.We incorporated individual-level, nationally representative survey data (2006-18) from 23 678 people with diabetes in 67 LMICs into a microsimulation of cardiovascular events, heart failure, end-stage renal disease, vision loss, pressure sensation loss, hypoglycaemia requiring medical attention, and drug-specific side-effects. We estimated price targets for incremental costs of switching to newer treatments to achieve cost-effectiveness (ie,3-times gross domestic product per disability-adjusted life-year averted) or to achieve net cost-savings when including costs of averted complications. We compared switching to SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists in place of sulfonylureas, or insulin analogues in place of human insulin, and also compared a glycaemia-agnostic pathways of adding SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists to existing therapies for people with heart disease, heart failure, or kidney disease.To achieve cost-effectiveness, SGLT2 inhibitors would need to have a median price of $224 per person per year (a 17·4% cost reduction; IQR $138-359, population-weighted across countries; mean price $257); GLP-1 receptor agonists $208 per person per year (98·3% reduction; $129-488; $240); and glargine insulin $20 per vial (31·0% reduction; $16-42; $28). To achieve net cost-savings, price targets would need to reduce by a further $9-10 to a median cost for SGLT2 inhibitors of $214 (21·4% reduction; $148-316; $245) and for GLP-1 receptor agonists to $199 per person per year (98·4% reduction; $138-294; $228); but insulin glargine remained around $20 per vial (32·4% reduction; $15-37; $26). Using SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists in a glycaemia-agnostic pathway produced a 92% reduction (SGLT2 inhibitors) and 72% reduction (GLP-1 receptor agonists) in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.Among novel agents, SGLT2 inhibitors hold particular promise for reducing complications of diabetes and meeting common price targets, particularly when used among people with established cardiovascular or kidney disease. These findings are consistent with the choice to include SGLT2 inhibitors in the WHO Essential Medicines List.Clinton Health Access Initiative.

Summary: Background: Given the increasing prevalence of diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), we aimed to estimate the health and cost implications of achieving different targets for diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among LMICs. Methods: We constructed a microsimulation model to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost and health-care costs of diagnosis, treatment, and control of blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia among people with diabetes in LMICs. We used individual participant data—specifically from the subset of people who were defined as having any type of diabetes by WHO standards—from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys (2006–18) spanning 15 world regions to estimate the baseline 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke), heart failure (ejection fraction of

Summary Background The prevalence of overweight, obesity, and diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are scant empirical data on the association between body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes in these settings. Methods In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys across 57 LMICs. We identified all countries in which a WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) survey had been done during a year in which the country fell into an eligible World Bank income group category. For LMICs that did not have a STEPS survey, did not have valid contact information, or declined our request for data, we did a systematic search for survey datasets. Eligible surveys were done during or after 2008; had individual-level data; were done in a low-income, lower-middle-income, or upper-middle-income country; were nationally representative; had a response rate of 50% or higher; contained a diabetes biomarker (either a blood glucose measurement or glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c]); and contained data on height and weight. Diabetes was defined biologically as a fasting plasma glucose concentration of 7·0 mmol/L (126·0 mg/dL) or higher; a random plasma glucose concentration of 11·1 mmol/L (200·0 mg/dL) or higher; or a HbA1c of 6·5% (48·0 mmol/mol) or higher, or by self-reported use of diabetes medication. We included individuals aged 25 years or older with complete data on diabetes status, BMI (defined as normal [18·5–22·9 kg/m2], upper-normal [23·0–24·9 kg/m2], overweight [25·0–29·9 kg/m2], or obese [≥30·0 kg/m2]), sex, and age. Countries were categorised into six geographical regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and central Asia, east, south, and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and Oceania. We estimated the association between BMI and diabetes risk by multivariable Poisson regression and receiver operating curve analyses, stratified by sex and geographical region. Findings Our pooled dataset from 58 nationally representative surveys in 57 LMICs included 685 616 individuals. The overall prevalence of overweight was 27·2% (95% CI 26·6–27·8), of obesity was 21·0% (19·6–22·5), and of diabetes was 9·3% (8·4–10·2). In the pooled analysis, a higher risk of diabetes was observed at a BMI of 23 kg/m2 or higher, with a 43% greater risk of diabetes for men and a 41% greater risk for women compared with a BMI of 18·5–22·9 kg/m2. Diabetes risk also increased steeply in individuals aged 35–44 years and in men aged 25–34 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the stratified analyses, there was considerable regional variability in this association. Optimal BMI thresholds for diabetes screening ranged from 23·8 kg/m2 among men in east, south, and southeast Asia to 28·3 kg/m2 among women in the Middle East and north Africa and in Latin America and the Caribbean. Interpretation The association between BMI and diabetes risk in LMICs is subject to substantial regional variability. Diabetes risk is greater at lower BMI thresholds and at younger ages than reflected in currently used BMI cutoffs for assessing diabetes risk. These findings offer an important insight to inform context-specific diabetes screening guidelines. Funding Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program.

Summary Background Approximately 80% of the 463 million adults worldwide with diabetes live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). A major obstacle to designing evidence-based policies to improve diabetes outcomes in LMICs is the scarce availability of nationally representative data on the current patterns of treatment coverage. The objectives of this study were to estimate the proportion of adults with diabetes in LMICs who receive coverage of recommended pharmacological and non-pharmacological diabetes treatment; and to describe country-level and individual-level characteristics that are associated with treatment. Methods We did a cross-sectional analysis of pooled, individual data from 55 nationally representative surveys in LMICs. Our primary outcome of self-reported diabetes treatment coverage was based on population-level monitoring indicators recommended in the 2020 WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions. Surveys were included if they were done in 2008 or after in an LMIC, as classified by the World Bank in the year the survey was done; were nationally representative; had individual-level data; contained a diabetes biomarker (fasting glucose, random glucose, or glycated haemoglobin); and had data on one or more diabetes treatments. Our sample included non-pregnant individuals with an available diabetes biomarker who were at least 25 years of age. We assessed coverage of three pharmacological and three non-pharmacological treatments among people with diabetes. At the country level, we estimated the proportion of individuals reporting coverage by per-capita gross national income and geographical region. At the individual level, we used logistic regression models to assess coverage along several key individual characteristics including sex, age, body-mass index, wealth quintile, and educational attainment. In the primary analysis, we scaled sample weights such that countries were weighted equally. Findings The final pooled sample from the 55 LMICs included 680 102 total individuals and 37 094 individuals with diabetes. Using equal weights for each country, diabetes prevalence was 9·0% (95% CI 8·7–9·4), with 43·9% (41·9–45·9) reporting a previous diabetes diagnosis. Overall, 4·6% (3·9–5·4) of individuals with diabetes self-reported meeting need for all treatments recommended for them. Coverage of glucose-lowering medication was 50·5% (48·6–52·5); antihypertensive medication was 41·3% (39·3–43·3); cholesterol-lowering medication was 6·3% (5·5–7·2); diet counselling was 32·2% (30·7–33·7); exercise counselling was 28·2% (26·6–29·8); and weight-loss counselling was 31·5% (29·3–33·7). Countries at higher-income levels tended to have greater coverage. Female sex and higher age, body-mass index, educational attainment, and household wealth were also associated with greater coverage. Interpretation Fewer than one in ten people with diabetes in LMICs receive coverage of guideline-based comprehensive diabetes treatment. Scaling up the capacity of health systems to deliver treatment not only to lower glucose but also to address cardiovascular disease risk factors, such as hypertension and high cholesterol, are urgent global diabetes priorities. Funding National Clinician Scholars Program at the University of Michigan Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Harvard Catalyst, and National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health.

Effective equity-focused health policy for hypertension in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) requires an understanding of the condition's current socioeconomic gradients and how these are likely to change in the future as countries develop economically.This cross-sectional study aimed to determine how hypertension prevalence in LMICs varies by individuals' education and household wealth, and how these socioeconomic gradients in hypertension prevalence are associated with a country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.We pooled nationally representative household survey data from 76 LMICs. We disaggregated hypertension prevalence by education and household wealth quintile, and used regression analyses to adjust for age and sex.We included 1,211,386 participants in the analysis. Pooling across all countries, hypertension prevalence tended to be similar between education groups and household wealth quintiles. The only world region with a clear positive association of hypertension with education or household wealth quintile was Southeast Asia. Countries with a lower GDP per capita had, on average, a more positive association of hypertension with education and household wealth quintile than countries with a higher GDP per capita, especially in rural areas and among men.Differences in hypertension prevalence between socioeconomic groups were generally small, with even the least educated and least wealthy groups having a substantial hypertension prevalence. Our cross-sectional interaction analyses of GDP per capita with the socioeconomic gradients of hypertension suggest that hypertension may increasingly affect adults in the lowest socioeconomic groups as LMICs develop economically.

On March 2–3, 2011—ahead of the first UN High-Level Meeting on NCDs—a conference hosted in Boston (MA, USA) focused on the NCDs of the world's poorest billion, whose poverty was embodied in young average age, low energy intake, and subsistence through physical labour.30 Participants at the Boston event argued that global thinking about NCDs had been too focused on a theory of epidemiological transition, which projected epidemics of chronic disease associated with development.31 This theory created a blind spot regarding the existence and pattern of non-infectious conditions before declines in infectious mortality (pre-transitional NCDIs). The poorest populations were still experiencing NCDIs as part of a nexus of hunger, toxic environments, infectious diseases, and lack of health care. The NCDIs that emerged under these circumstances were both more severe and more varied than could be captured by frameworks developed for other populations. In April, 2011, the WHO African Regional Office held a consultation of health ministers in Congo (Brazzaville).32 The Brazzaville Declaration on NCDs called for an expanded NCDI agenda addressing haemoglobinopathies (sickle cell disease), mental disorders, and violence and injury.32 Other prominent African health experts called for a 5 × 5 strategy inclusive of neuropsychiatric disorders and infectious risks.33, 34 In July, 2013, at a meeting in Rwanda, a group of NCD unit leaders from ten African ministries of health called for a complementary strategy for NCDIs.35 This NCDI equity agenda focused on policies and integrated health-sector interventions to eliminate deaths among the poorest children and young adults (aged

ObjectivesTo determine the prevalence and frequency of using any tobacco product and each of a detailed set of tobacco products, how tobacco use and frequency of use vary across countries, world regions, and World Bank country income groups, and the socioeconomic and demographic gradients of tobacco use and frequency of use within countries.DesignSecondary analysis of nationally representative, cross-sectional, household survey data from 82 low and middle income countries collected between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020.SettingPopulation based survey data.Participants1 231 068 individuals aged 15 years and older.Main outcome measuresSelf-reported current smoking, current daily smoking, current smokeless tobacco use, current daily smokeless tobacco use, pack years, and current use and use frequencies of each tobacco product. Products were any type of cigarette, manufactured cigarette, hand rolled cigarette, water pipe, cigar, oral snuff, nasal snuff, chewing tobacco, and betel nut (with and without tobacco).ResultsThe smoking prevalence in the study sample was 16.5% (95% confidence interval 16.1% to 16.9%) and ranged from 1.1% (0.9% to 1.3%) in Ghana to 50.6% (45.2% to 56.1%) in Kiribati. The user prevalence of smokeless tobacco was 7.7% (7.5% to 8.0%) and prevalence was highest in Papua New Guinea (daily user prevalence of 65.4% (63.3% to 67.5%)). Although variation was wide between countries and by tobacco product, for many low and middle income countries, the highest prevalence and cigarette smoking frequency was reported in men, those with lower education, less household wealth, living in rural areas, and higher age.ConclusionsBoth smoked and smokeless tobacco use and frequency of use vary widely across tobacco products in low and middle income countries. This study can inform the design and targeting of efforts to reduce tobacco use in low and middle income countries and serve as a benchmark for monitoring progress towards national and international goals.

Summary Background Evidence from nationally representative studies in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on where in the hypertension care continuum patients are lost to care is sparse. This information, however, is essential for effective targeting of interventions by health services and monitoring progress in improving hypertension care. We aimed to determine the cascade of hypertension care in 44 LMICs—and its variation between countries and population groups—by dividing the progression in the care process, from need of care to successful treatment, into discrete stages and measuring the losses at each stage. Methods In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level population-based data from 44 LMICs. We first searched for nationally representative datasets from the WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) from 2005 or later. If a STEPS dataset was not available for a LMIC (or we could not gain access to it), we conducted a systematic search for survey datasets; the inclusion criteria in these searches were that the survey was done in 2005 or later, was nationally representative for at least three 10-year age groups older than 15 years, included measured blood pressure data, and contained data on at least two hypertension care cascade steps. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, or reported use of medication for hypertension. Among those with hypertension, we calculated the proportion of individuals who had ever had their blood pressure measured; had been diagnosed with hypertension; had been treated for hypertension; and had achieved control of their hypertension. We weighted countries proportionally to their population size when determining this hypertension care cascade at the global and regional level. We disaggregated the hypertension care cascade by age, sex, education, household wealth quintile, body-mass index, smoking status, country, and region. We used linear regression to predict, separately for each cascade step, a country's performance based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, allowing us to identify countries whose performance fell outside of the 95% prediction interval. Findings Our pooled dataset included 1 100 507 participants, of whom 192 441 (17·5%) had hypertension. Among those with hypertension, 73·6% of participants (95% CI 72·9–74·3) had ever had their blood pressure measured, 39·2% of participants (38·2–40·3) had been diagnosed with hypertension, 29·9% of participants (28·6–31·3) received treatment, and 10·3% of participants (9·6–11·0) achieved control of their hypertension. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean generally achieved the best performance relative to their predicted performance based on GDP per capita, whereas countries in sub-Saharan Africa performed worst. Bangladesh, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, and Peru performed significantly better on all care cascade steps than predicted based on GDP per capita. Being a woman, older, more educated, wealthier, and not being a current smoker were all positively associated with attaining each of the four steps of the care cascade. Interpretation Our study provides important evidence for the design and targeting of health policies and service interventions for hypertension in LMICs. We show at what steps and for whom there are gaps in the hypertension care process in each of the 44 countries in our study. We also identified countries in each world region that perform better than expected from their economic development, which can direct policy makers to important policy lessons. Given the high disease burden caused by hypertension in LMICs, nationally representative hypertension care cascades, as constructed in this study, are an important measure of progress towards achieving universal health coverage. Funding Harvard McLennan Family Fund, Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

BACKGROUND The WHO recommends 400 g/d of fruits and vegetables (the equivalent of ∼5 servings/d) for the prevention of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). However, there is limited evidence regarding individual-level correlates of meeting these recommendations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In order to target policies and interventions aimed at improving intake, global monitoring of fruit and vegetable consumption by socio-demographic subpopulations is required. OBJECTIVES The aims of this study were to 1) assess the proportion of individuals meeting the WHO recommendation and 2) evaluate socio-demographic predictors (age, sex, and educational attainment) of meeting the WHO recommendation. METHODS Data were collected from 193,606 individuals aged ≥15 y in 28 LMICs between 2005 and 2016. The prevalence of meeting the WHO recommendation took into account the complex survey designs, and countries were weighted according to their World Bank population estimates in 2015. Poisson regression was used to estimate associations with socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS The proportion (95% CI) of individuals aged ≥15 y who met the WHO recommendation was 18.0% (16.6-19.4%). Mean intake of fruits was 1.15 (1.10-1.20) servings per day and for vegetables, 2.46 (2.40-2.51) servings/d. The proportion of individuals meeting the recommendation increased with increasing country gross domestic product (GDP) class (P

Background Global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is high and rising, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Focussing on 45 LMICs, we aimed to determine (1) the adult population’s median 10-year predicted CVD risk, including its variation within countries by socio-demographic characteristics, and (2) the prevalence of self-reported blood pressure (BP) medication use among those with and without an indication for such medication as per World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Methods and findings We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative household surveys from 45 LMICs carried out between 2005 and 2017, with 32 surveys being WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) surveys. Country-specific median 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the 2019 WHO CVD Risk Chart Working Group non-laboratory-based equations. BP medication indications were based on the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions guidelines. Regression models examined associations between CVD risk, BP medication use, and socio-demographic characteristics. Our complete case analysis included 600,484 adults from 45 countries. Median 10-year CVD risk (interquartile range [IQR]) for males and females was 2.7% (2.3%–4.2%) and 1.6% (1.3%–2.1%), respectively, with estimates indicating the lowest risk in sub-Saharan Africa and highest in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. Higher educational attainment and current employment were associated with lower CVD risk in most countries. Of those indicated for BP medication, the median (IQR) percentage taking medication was 24.2% (15.4%–37.2%) for males and 41.6% (23.9%–53.8%) for females. Conversely, a median (IQR) 47.1% (36.1%–58.6%) of all people taking a BP medication were not indicated for such based on CVD risk status. There was no association between BP medication use and socio-demographic characteristics in most of the 45 study countries. Study limitations include variation in country survey methods, most notably the sample age range and year of data collection, insufficient data to use the laboratory-based CVD risk equations, and an inability to determine past history of a CVD diagnosis. Conclusions This study found underuse of guideline-indicated BP medication in people with elevated CVD risk and overuse by people with lower CVD risk. Country-specific targeted policies are needed to help improve the identification and management of those at highest CVD risk., Author summary Why was this study done? CVD burden in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) is high and rising. CVD risk estimation using validated risk prediction equations is recommended in most guidelines; however, there are few population-representative analyses of CVD risk and its association with socio-demographic characteristics. Despite guidelines recommending using CVD risk estimates as an essential first step in guiding management practices, the extent to which risk-based approaches are being implemented in LMICs is not well characterised. What did the researchers do and find? We analysed population-representative survey data from 45 LMICs to determine country-specific levels of CVD risk, associations between socio-demographic factors and levels of CVD risk, and adherence to WHO guidelines on use of blood pressure medication. We found high variation in CVD risk profiles, with higher levels of risk in the Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean region and lower levels of risk in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as an inverse association between CVD risk and higher education and employment in most countries. We found an underuse of medicines in people at elevated CVD risk across all countries (only 24.2% of males and 41.6% of females at high CVD risk are taking guideline-recommended BP medication) and an overuse of medicines in people at lower levels of CVD risk, with 47% of all BP medication being used by people at low CVD risk without a guideline indication for use. What do these findings mean? There is large variation in CVD risk across LMICs, and an inverse association between CVD risk and higher education and employment in most countries. There is an overuse of medicines in people at lower levels of CVD risk and an underuse of medicines in people at elevated CVD risk across all countries. The large heterogeneity of the findings in this study reflects varying country contexts. Country-specific targeted policies are needed to improve the identification and management of those at highest CVD risk.

Completed and ongoing implementation activities globally advocate for community-based approaches to improve strategies for type 2 diabetes prevention. However, little is known about such strategies in the African region where there are higher relative increases in diabetes prevalence. We reported findings from the first 8-month pilot phase of the South African diabetes prevention program. The study was conducted across eight townships (four black and four mixed-ancestry communities) in Cape Town, South Africa, between August 2017 and March 2018. Participants were recruited using both random and self-selected sampling techniques because the former approach proved to be ineffective, &lt, 10% of randomly selected individuals consented to participate. Non-laboratory-based diabetes risk screening, using the African diabetes risk score, and based on targeted population specific cut-offs, identified potentially high-risk adults in the community. This was followed by an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to confirm prevalent pre-diabetes. Among the 853 adults without prior diabetes who were screened in the community, 354 (43.4%) were classified as high risk, and 316 presented for further screening. On OGTT, 13.1% had dysglycemia, including 10% with screen-detected diabetes and 67.9% with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)-defined high risk. Participants with pre-diabetes (n = 208) had high levels of common cardiovascular risk factors, i.e., obesity (73.7%), elevated total cholesterol (51.9%), and hypertension (29.4%). Self-referral is likely an efficient method for selecting participants for community-based diabetes risk screening in Africa. Post-screening management of individuals with pre-diabetes must include attention to co-morbid cardiovascular risk factors.

OBJECTIVE Diabetes is a rapidly growing health problem in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but empirical data on its prevalence and relationship to socioeconomic status are scarce. We estimated diabetes prevalence and the subset with undiagnosed diabetes in 29 LMICs and evaluated the relationship of education, household wealth, and BMI with diabetes risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We pooled individual-level data from 29 nationally representative surveys conducted between 2008 and 2016, totaling 588,574 participants aged ≥25 years. Diabetes prevalence and the subset with undiagnosed diabetes was calculated overall and by country, World Bank income group (WBIG), and geographic region. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to estimate relative risk (RR). RESULTS Overall, prevalence of diabetes in 29 LMICs was 7.5% (95% CI 7.1–8.0) and of undiagnosed diabetes 4.9% (4.6–5.3). Diabetes prevalence increased with increasing WBIG: countries with low-income economies (LICs) 6.7% (5.5–8.1), lower-middle-income economies (LMIs) 7.1% (6.6–7.6), and upper-middle-income economies (UMIs) 8.2% (7.5–9.0). Compared with no formal education, greater educational attainment was associated with an increased risk of diabetes across WBIGs, after adjusting for BMI (LICs RR 1.47 [95% CI 1.22–1.78], LMIs 1.14 [1.06–1.23], and UMIs 1.28 [1.02–1.61]). CONCLUSIONS Among 29 LMICs, diabetes prevalence was substantial and increased with increasing WBIG. In contrast to the association seen in high-income countries, diabetes risk was highest among those with greater educational attainment, independent of BMI. LMICs included in this analysis may be at an advanced stage in the nutrition transition but with no reversal in the socioeconomic gradient of diabetes risk.

Background Cardiovascular diseases are leading causes of death, globally, and health systems that deliver quality clinical care are needed to manage an increasing number of people with risk factors for these diseases. Indicators of preparedness of countries to manage cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVDRFs) are regularly collected by ministries of health and global health agencies. We aimed to assess whether these indicators are associated with patient receipt of quality clinical care. Methods and findings We did a secondary analysis of cross-sectional, nationally representative, individual-patient data from 187,552 people with hypertension (mean age 48.1 years, 53.5% female) living in 43 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and 40,795 people with diabetes (mean age 52.2 years, 57.7% female) living in 28 LMICs on progress through cascades of care (condition diagnosed, treated, or controlled) for diabetes or hypertension, to indicate outcomes of provision of quality clinical care. Data were extracted from national-level World Health Organization (WHO) Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS), or other similar household surveys, conducted between July 2005 and November 2016. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to estimate associations between each quality clinical care outcome and indicators of country development (gross domestic product [GDP] per capita or Human Development Index [HDI]); national capacity for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases (‘NCD readiness indicators’ from surveys done by WHO); health system finance (domestic government expenditure on health [as percentage of GDP], private, and out-of-pocket expenditure on health [both as percentage of current]); and health service readiness (number of physicians, nurses, or hospital beds per 1,000 people) and performance (neonatal mortality rate). All models were adjusted for individual-level predictors including age, sex, and education. In an exploratory analysis, we tested whether national-level data on facility preparedness for diabetes were positively associated with outcomes. Associations were inconsistent between indicators and quality clinical care outcomes. For hypertension, GDP and HDI were both positively associated with each outcome. Of the 33 relationships tested between NCD readiness indicators and outcomes, only two showed a significant positive association: presence of guidelines with being diagnosed (odds ratio [OR], 1.86 [95% CI 1.08–3.21], p = 0.03) and availability of funding with being controlled (OR, 2.26 [95% CI 1.09–4.69], p = 0.03). Hospital beds (OR, 1.14 [95% CI 1.02–1.27], p = 0.02), nurses/midwives (OR, 1.24 [95% CI 1.06–1.44], p = 0.006), and physicians (OR, 1.21 [95% CI 1.11–1.32], p < 0.001) per 1,000 people were positively associated with being diagnosed and, similarly, with being treated; and the number of physicians was additionally associated with being controlled (OR, 1.12 [95% CI 1.01–1.23], p = 0.03). For diabetes, no positive associations were seen between NCD readiness indicators and outcomes. There was no association between country development, health service finance, or health service performance and readiness indicators and any outcome, apart from GDP (OR, 1.70 [95% CI 1.12–2.59], p = 0.01), HDI (OR, 1.21 [95% CI 1.01–1.44], p = 0.04), and number of physicians per 1,000 people (OR, 1.28 [95% CI 1.09–1.51], p = 0.003), which were associated with being diagnosed. Six countries had data on cascades of care and nationwide-level data on facility preparedness. Of the 27 associations tested between facility preparedness indicators and outcomes, the only association that was significant was having metformin available, which was positively associated with treatment (OR, 1.35 [95% CI 1.01–1.81], p = 0.04). The main limitation was use of blood pressure measurement on a single occasion to diagnose hypertension and a single blood glucose measurement to diagnose diabetes. Conclusion In this study, we observed that indicators of country preparedness to deal with CVDRFs are poor proxies for quality clinical care received by patients for hypertension and diabetes. The major implication is that assessments of countries’ preparedness to manage CVDRFs should not rely on proxies; rather, it should involve direct assessment of quality clinical care., Author summary Why was the study done? Diseases such as high blood pressure and diabetes are becoming increasingly common in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Treatment for these conditions is simple and cheap. However, without treatment, sufferers are at high risk of adverse consequences, such as heart attacks and strokes. It is important therefore to be able to measure whether patients who need treatment are getting it. Currently, LMICs’ progress towards being able to treat patients with hypertension and diabetes is measured using proxies, for example, whether policies, guidelines, funding, structures, or human resources are in place. What did the researchers find? We measured whether 187,552 people with hypertension living in 43 LMICs and 40,795 people with diabetes living in 28 LMICs had their high blood pressure or diabetes treated well; i.e., they had these conditions diagnosed, treated, or controlled. We found that most proxy measures were not reflective of whether patients had their condition treated well. What do these findings mean? To judge countries’ progress towards ability to treat hypertension and diabetes requires directly assessing whether people with these diseases are getting the treatment that they need. The main limitation of the study was that a one-time measurement of blood pressure or blood glucose was used to define whether participants had high blood pressure or diabetes. To make a concrete clinical diagnosis requires more detailed investigation.

Background Type2 Diabetes and Hypertension (T2DM/HTN) have become serious threats to the health and socio-economic development in the developing countries. People living with HIV (PLHIV) infection are more vulnerable of developing T2DM/HTN due to HIV infection itself and antiretroviral treatments. The situation is worse when behavioral and biological risk factors are pervasive to PLHIV. Despite this vicious circle; information on the level of knowledge and perception regarding prevention of T2DM/HTN, risks factors and associated complications among PLHIV is not well documented in Tanzania. The aim of this paper was assess the level of T2DM/HTN knowledge and perception among PLHIV and utilizing care and treatment clinic (CTC) services. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected 12 CTCs between October 2011 and February 2012. Data on demographic characteristics, type 2 diabetes and hypertension knowledge and perception were collected from the study participants. Results Out of 754 PLHIV and receiving HIV services at the selected CTCs, 671 (89%) consented for the study. Overall 276/671(41.1%) respondents had low knowledge on type2 diabetes and hypertension risk factors and their associated complications. Locality (rural) (AOR = 2.2; 95%CI 1.4–3.4) and never/not recalling if ever measured blood glucose in life (AOR = 2.3; 95%CI 1.1–5.7) were significant determinants of low knowledge among clients on ART. Being currently not having HIV and T2DM/HTN co-morbidities (AOR = 2.2; 95%CI 1.2–4.9) was the only determinant of low knowledge among ART Naïve clients. With regard to perception, 293/671(43.7%) respondents had negative perception on diabetes and hypertension prevention. Sex (female) (AOR = 2.0, 95%CI 1.2–2.9), being aged

Background. Physical inactivity contributes to the rising prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Given the rapidly increasing prevalence of NCDs in Low-Income Countries (LICs), comprehensive evaluation and documentation of physical activity (PA) status in this setting are crucial. Methods. We examined the demographic and social-economic antecedents of PA among adults (5398) from the 2012 Tanzania STEPS survey data. Statistical significance at the level of 0.05 was used to measure the strength of associations. Results. Majority of study participants attained the WHO-recommended levels of physical activity (96.7%). Levels were higher among those living in rural than in urban settings (98% versus 92%, p<0.0001) and generally, urban residency, female gender, higher education achievement, and employment were significantly associated with low levels of PA. Participation in the different domains of PA (work, transport, and recreational) varied with living setting, levels of education, and employment status. Conclusion. These results describe PA status and associated social-economic determinants among adults in rural and urban Tanzania. The findings contribute to the growing evidence that implicates urbanization as a key driver for the growing prevalence of physical inactivity in LICs and underscore the need for tailored PA interventions based on demography and social-economic factors.

Background The prevalence of diabetes is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), urgently requiring detailed evidence to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. In an effort to understand at what step in the diabetes care continuum individuals are lost to care, and how this varies between countries and population groups, this study examined health system performance for diabetes among adults in 28 LMICs using a cascade of care approach. Methods and findings We pooled individual participant data from nationally representative surveys done between 2008 and 2016 in 28 LMICs. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l (126 mg/dl), random plasma glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l (200 mg/dl), HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, or reporting to be taking medication for diabetes. Stages of the care cascade were as follows: tested, diagnosed, lifestyle advice and/or medication given (“treated”), and controlled (HbA1c < 8.0% or equivalent). We stratified cascades of care by country, geographic region, World Bank income group, and individual-level characteristics (age, sex, educational attainment, household wealth quintile, and body mass index [BMI]). We then used logistic regression models with country-level fixed effects to evaluate predictors of (1) testing, (2) treatment, and (3) control. The final sample included 847,413 adults in 28 LMICs (8 low income, 9 lower-middle income, 11 upper-middle income). Survey sample size ranged from 824 in Guyana to 750,451 in India. The prevalence of diabetes was 8.8% (95% CI: 8.2%–9.5%), and the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 4.8% (95% CI: 4.5%–5.2%). Health system performance for management of diabetes showed large losses to care at the stage of being tested, and low rates of diabetes control. Total unmet need for diabetes care (defined as the sum of those not tested, tested but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and treated but with diabetes not controlled) was 77.0% (95% CI: 74.9%–78.9%). Performance along the care cascade was significantly better in upper-middle income countries, but across all World Bank income groups, only half of participants with diabetes who were tested achieved diabetes control. Greater age, educational attainment, and BMI were associated with higher odds of being tested, being treated, and achieving control. The limitations of this study included the use of a single glucose measurement to assess diabetes, differences in the approach to wealth measurement across surveys, and variation in the date of the surveys. Conclusions The study uncovered poor management of diabetes along the care cascade, indicating large unmet need for diabetes care across 28 LMICs. Performance across the care cascade varied by World Bank income group and individual-level characteristics, particularly age, educational attainment, and BMI. This policy-relevant analysis can inform country-specific interventions and offers a baseline by which future progress can be measured., Using individual participant data from a large cohort study, Jennifer Manne-Goehler and colleagues reveal poor healthcare provision for diabetes patients in 28 LMICs., Author summary Why was this study done? Diabetes is a growing problem in low-income and middle-income countries, which already carry about 75% of the global diabetes burden, but there is limited evidence to guide policymaking in these settings. Prior studies have analyzed the cascade of care for diabetes in single-country or subnational contexts, but to our knowledge there have been no prior multi-country analyses on this subject. This study analyzes nationally representative data regarding health system performance for people who have diabetes, as defined by biological criteria, across a spectrum of levels of economic development. What did the researchers do and find? We harmonized nationally representative population-based survey data from 28 low-income and middle-income countries in 4 geographic regions, and used these data to construct the diabetes care cascade stratified by individual factors and national income. In this sample of over 800,000 adults, the overall prevalence of diabetes was 8.8% (95% CI: 8.2%–9.5%), of which 4.8% (95% CI: 4.5%–5.2%) was undiagnosed. In this study, we found that health system performance for diabetes showed large losses to care at the stage of detection (63.4% [95% CI: 56.7%–69.6%]) and low rates of diabetes control (22.8% [95% CI: 20.9%–24.9%]). Total unmet need for diabetes care (defined as the sum of undetected, detected but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and treated but not controlled diabetes) was 77.0% (95% CI: 74.9%–78.9%). Performance along the care cascade was better in upper-middle-income countries, but across all World Bank income groups, only 16%–25% of those with diabetes achieved diabetes control. Increasing age, educational attainment, and overweight or obesity were associated with higher odds of being tested, treated, and achieving control. What do these findings mean? There is a large unmet need for diabetes care that reflects the need for a greater investment of health resources to strengthen systems of care for this disease. Given that diabetes is considered a tracer condition for examining health systems, these findings also indicate that many countries face challenges in achieving universal health coverage.

Optimal care for children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes is well described in guidelines, such as those of the International Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Diabetes. High-income countries can usually provide this, but the cost of this care is generally prohibitive for lower-income countries. Indeed, in most of these countries, very little care is provided by government health systems, resulting in high mortality, and high complications rates in those who do survive. As lower-income countries work toward establishing guidelines-based care, it is helpful to describe the levels of care that are potentially affordable, cost-effective, and result in substantially improved clinical outcomes. We have developed a levels of care concept with three tiers: "minimal care," "intermediate care," and "comprehensive (guidelines-based) care." Each tier contains levels, which describe insulin and blood glucose monitoring regimens, requirements for hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) testing, complications screening, diabetes education, and multidisciplinary care. The literature provides various examples at each tier, including from countries where the life for a child and the changing diabetes in children programs have assisted local diabetes centres to introduce intermediate care. Intra-clinic mean HbA1c levels range from 12.0% to 14.0% (108-130 mmol/mol) for the most basic level of minimal care, 8.0% to 9.5% (64-80 mmol/mol) for intermediate care, and 6.9% to 8.5% (52-69 mmol/mol) for comprehensive care. Countries with sufficient resources should provide comprehensive care, working to ensure that it is accessible by all in need, and that resulting HbA1c levels correspond with international recommendations. All other countries should provide Intermediate care, while working toward the provision of comprehensive care.

Introduction: As diabetes increases in LMICs, there is a need for more evidence to guide health systems planning. We used a cascade of care approach to assess health system performance among adults (=15 years) in LMICs. Methods: We pooled individual data from 25 nationally representative surveys. Diabetes was defined as FBG=126 mg/dL, RBG=200 mg/dL, HbA1c=6.5%, or on medication. Stages of the care cascade included: screening, diagnosis, lifestyle advice and/or medication (“treatment”), and control (HbA1c =8.0%). Linear probability models were used to evaluate predictors (age, sex, education, and wealth quintile) of (1) treatment and (2) control. Results: Across all countries, the largest losses to care occur at screening (Table). While health service access increases with increasing country income group, rates of disease control are similar. Prediction models show that treatment is 31.1 percentage points (95% CI: 12.6-49.5) lower in the youngest age group compared to the oldest and that control is 3.9 percentage points (95% CI: 1.8-6.1) lower in men than women. Conclusions: Diabetes prevalence is substantial across LMICs, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overall rates of screening are low and only 23% of those with diabetes achieve control, which is less than half of that in the U.S. (64%). Policy interventions that link adults with diabetes to care and improve disease control in LMICs are needed. The diabetes cascade of care in 25 LMICS (N=92,141)RegionPrevalence (95% CI)Screened (95% CI)Diagnosed (95% CI)Completed (95% CI)Controlled (95% CI)Sub-Saharan Africa3.9 (3.0 - 5.0)53.1 (46.3 - 60.0)38.7 (32.9 - 45.0)36.0 (30.4 - 42.0)21.2 (16.7 - 26.3)Latin America & the Caribbean28.4 (23.7 - 33.7)79.8 (74.2 - 84.4)63.7 (57.9 - 69.3)48.9 (42.3 - 55.6)33.1 (26.8 - 40.1)South & Southeast Asia7.5 (7.1 - 7.9)57.5 (47.6 - 66.9)46.1 (36.9 - 55.6)45.2 (36.0 - 54.7)29.1 (22.0 - 37.5)Low-income group2.7 (2.1 - 3.5)39.9 (34.4 - 45.6)32.7 (27.2 - 38.5)31.4 (26.0 - 37.3)21.0 (16.0 - 27.1)Lower-middle income group7.7 (6.6 - 8.9)57.1 (46.0 - 67.6)38.2 (27.8 - 49.8)35.2 (25.0 - 47.0)23.9 (15.2 - 35.4)Upper-middle income group9.3 (5.5 - 15.3)68.9 (60.9 - 75.8)47.9 (40.3 - 55.5)41.7 (34.8 - 48.8)24.1 (19.1 - 30.0)Overall8.5 (5.9 - 12.0)57.9 (52.8 - 62.9)41.8 (37.1 - 46.6)37.6 (33.2 - 42.2)23.0 (19.5 - 27.0) Disclosure J. Manne-Goehler: None. P. Geldsetzer: None. D. Houinato: None. C. Houehanou: None. M.S. Gurung: None. G.M. Andall-Brereton: None. S. Crooks: None. K. Joseph: None. C. Wesseh: None. B. Norov: None. K.K. Aryal: None. K.B. Karki: None. P. Bovet: None. D. Labadarios: None. A. Stokes: None. M.T. Mayige: None. G.B. Kagaruki: None. D. Guwatudde: None. B.K. Silver: None. J.M. Jorgensen: None. S. Vollmer: None. J.I. Davies: None. T. Barnighausen: None. L.M. Jaacks: None.

Aim: To estimate the prevalence and risk factors for metabolic syndrome (MetS) among HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Tanzania. Study Design: A cross sectional study was conducted among adults aged ≥18years living with Original Research Article Kagaruki et al.; BJMMR, 5(10): 1317-1327, 2015; Article no.BJMMR.2015.15

SummaryThe burden and aetiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its microvascular complications may be influenced by varying behavioural and lifestyle environments as well as by genetic susceptibility. These aspects of the epidemiology of T2D have not been reliably clarified in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), highlighting the need for context-specific epidemiological studies with the statistical resolution to inform potential preventative and therapeutic strategies. Therefore, as part of the Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa) initiative, we designed a multi-site study comprising case collections and population-based surveys at 11 sites in eight countries across SSA. The goal is to recruit up to 6000 T2D participants and 6000 control participants. We will collect questionnaire data, biophysical measurements and biological samples for chronic disease traits, risk factors and genetic data on all study participants. Through integrating epidemiological and genomic techniques, the study provides a framework for assessing the burden, spectrum and environmental and genetic risk factors for T2D and its complications across SSA. With established mechanisms for fieldwork, data and sample collection and management, data-sharing and consent for re-approaching participants, the study will be a resource for future research studies, including longitudinal studies, prospective case ascertainment of incident disease and interventional studies.

Summary Background Despite widespread recognition that the burden of diabetes is rapidly growing in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, nationally representative estimates of unmet need for diabetes diagnosis and care are in short supply for the region. We use national population-based survey data to quantify diabetes prevalence and met and unmet need for diabetes diagnosis and care in 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We further estimate demographic and economic gradients of met need for diabetes diagnosis and care. Methods We did a pooled analysis of individual-level data from nationally representative population-based surveys that met the following inclusion criteria: the data were collected during 2005–15; the data were made available at the individual level; a biomarker for diabetes was available in the dataset; and the dataset included information on use of core health services for diabetes diagnosis and care. We first quantified the population in need of diabetes diagnosis and care by estimating the prevalence of diabetes across the surveys; we also quantified the prevalence of overweight and obesity, as a major risk factor for diabetes and an indicator of need for diabetes screening. Second, we determined the level of met need for diabetes diagnosis, preventive counselling, and treatment in both the diabetic and the overweight and obese population. Finally, we did survey fixed-effects regressions to establish the demographic and economic gradients of met need for diabetes diagnosis, counselling, and treatment. Findings We pooled data from 12 nationally representative population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa, representing 38 311 individuals with a biomarker measurement for diabetes. Across the surveys, the median prevalence of diabetes was 5% (range 2–14) and the median prevalence of overweight or obesity was 27% (range 16–68). We estimated seven measures of met need for diabetes-related care across the 12 surveys: (1) percentage of the overweight or obese population who received a blood glucose measurement (median 22% [IQR 11–37]); and percentage of the diabetic population who reported that they (2) had ever received a blood glucose measurement (median 36% [IQR 27–63]); (3) had ever been told that they had diabetes (median 27% [IQR 22–51]); (4) had ever been counselled to lose weight (median 15% [IQR 13–23]); (5) had ever been counselled to exercise (median 15% [IQR 11–30]); (6) were using oral diabetes drugs (median 25% [IQR 18–42]); and (7) were using insulin (median 11% [IQR 6–13]). Compared with those aged 15–39 years, the adjusted odds of met need for diabetes diagnosis (measures 1–3) were 2·22 to 3·53 (40–54 years) and 3·82 to 5·01 (≥55 years) times higher. The adjusted odds of met need for diabetes diagnosis also increased consistently with educational attainment and were between 3·07 and 4·56 higher for the group with 8 years or more of education than for the group with less than 1 year of education. Finally, need for diabetes care was significantly more likely to be met (measures 4–7) in the oldest age and highest educational groups. Interpretation Diabetes has already reached high levels of prevalence in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Large proportions of need for diabetes diagnosis and care in the region remain unmet, but the patterns of unmet need vary widely across the countries in our sample. Novel health policies and programmes are urgently needed to increase awareness of diabetes and to expand coverage of preventive counselling, diagnosis, and linkage to diabetes care. Because the probability of met need for diabetes diagnosis and care consistently increases with age and educational attainment, policy makers should pay particular attention to improved access to diabetes services for young adults and people with low educational attainment. Funding None.

Background Tobacco consumption contributes significantly to the global burden of disease. The prevalence of smoking is estimated to be increasing in many low-income countries, including Tanzania, especially among women and youth. Even so, the implementation of tobacco control measures has been discouraging in the country. Efforts to foster investment in tobacco control are hindered by lack of evidence on what works and at what cost. Aims We aim to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of population-based tobacco control strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Tanzania. Materials and methods A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an Excel-based Markov model, from a governmental perspective. We employed an ingredient approach and step-down methodologies in the costing exercise following a government perspective. Epidemiological data and efficacy inputs were derived from the literature. We used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as the outcome measure. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out with Ersatz to incorporate uncertainties in the model parameters. Results Our model results showed that all five tobacco control strategies were very cost-effective since they fell below the ceiling ratio of one GDP per capita suggested by the WHO. Increase in tobacco taxes was the most cost-effective strategy, while a workplace smoking ban was the least cost-effective option, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$5 and US$267, respectively. Conclusions Even though all five interventions are deemed very cost-effective in the prevention of CVD in Tanzania, more research on budget impact analysis is required to further assess the government’s ability to implement these interventions.

H3Africa is developing capacity for health-related genomics research in Africa

Background The prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes are increasingly high in developing countries, where detection rates remain very low. This manuscript discusses the rationale, challenges and opportunities for early detection of diabetes and prediabetes in developing countries. Methods PubMed was searched up to March 2012 for studies addressing screening for hyperglycemia in developing countries. Relevant studies were summarized through key questions derived from the Wilson and Junger criteria. Results In developing countries, diabetes predominantly affects working-age persons, has high rates of complications and devastating economic impacts. These countries are ill-equipped to handle advanced stages of the disease. There are acceptable and relatively simple tools that can aid screening in these countries. Interventions shown to be cost-effective in preventing diabetes and its complications in developed countries can be used in screen-detected people of developing countries. However, effective implementation of these interventions remains a challenge, and the costs and benefits of diabetes screening in these settings are less well-known. Implementing screening policies in developing countries will require health systems strengthening, through creative funding and staff training. Conclusions For many compelling reasons, screening for hyperglycemia preferably targeted, should be a policy priority in developing countries. This will help reorient health systems toward cost-saving prevention.

To systematically review published primary research on the development or validation of risk scores that require only self-reported or available clinical data to identify undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM).A systematic literature search of Medline and EMBASE was conducted until January 2011. Studies focusing on the development or validation of risk scores to identify undiagnosed T2DM were included. Risk scores to predict future risk of T2DM were excluded.Thirty-one studies were included; 17 developed a new risk score, 14 validated existing scores. Twenty-six studies were conducted in high-income countries. Age and measures of body mass/fat distribution were the most commonly used predictor variables. Studies developing new scores performed better than validation studies, with 11 reporting an AUC of0.80 compared to one validation study. Fourteen validation studies reported sensitivities of80%. The performance of scores did not differ by the number of variables included or the country setting.There is a proliferation of newly developed risk scores using similar variables, which sometimes perform poorly upon external validation. Future research should explore the recalibration, validation and applicability of existing scores to other settings, particularly in low/middle income countries, and on the utility of scores to improve diabetes-related outcomes.

Malaria remains as an important public health and a major cause of childhood death and paediatric hospital admission in sub-Saharan Africa. This prospective hospital based cross sectional study was conducted from April 2007 to April 2008. The main objective was to assess clinical manifestations and outcomes of severe malaria in children admitted to district hospital in Rungwe and Kyela in south-western Tanzania. A total of 1371 children were selected as screening group of which 409 (29.8%) were tested positive for malaria. Mean age of the children was 2.7 (95%CI= 2.5, 2.8) years and the majority (86%) were under five years of age. The proportion of children severe malaria in Rungwe was significantly higher than that of Kyela by 21.3% ( P=0.002) . The common symptoms of severe malaria during admission were convulsions (50.9%) compensated shock (30.6%), prostration (29.1%) and symptomatic severe anaemia (14.9%). The case fatality rate (CFR) was 4.6% and the cure rate (CR) was 95.4%. Children with suspected severe acidosis and symptomatic severe anemia were 4.8 (95%CI=1.6, 14.6) and 5.5 (95%CI 1.1, 28.2), respectively, more likely to die compared to those without these symptoms. The proportion of deaths among children presenting ≥5 symptoms was 32.1% higher than among those presenting one symptom (OR =0.50, 95%CI 0.125-2.000; P =0.000). Convulsions and compensated shock were the leading symptoms at admission. Suspected severe acidosis and symptomatic severe anemia were the predictors of mortality for children. In order to reduce mortality among admitted children with severe malaria there is a need for health providers to deploy strategic management of fatal prognostic factors. In conclusion, convulsion and compensated shock were the leading symptoms among children at admission and that suspected severe acidosis and symptomatic severe anemia were the predictors of mortality. It is therefore important to emphasis early diagnosis and prompt treatment of severe cases of malaria to minimize mortality among children.

Globally there is evidence of the growing burden of Non Communicable diseases (NCDs) especially in developing countries including Tanzania. This paper summarises the review of published papers on the magnitude of Non Communicable Diseases in the country. Current opportunities for management and control of NCDs are also explored. In this review diseases such as diabetes and hypertension have been shown to have increased over the years. Prevalence of risk factors such as obesity, dyslipidemia and smoking has been shown to be high with clear gender and urban rural differences. Generally there is paucity of national representative data on the burden of risk factors and prevalence of non-communicable diseases. The main risk factors for NCDs namely smoking, alcohol intake, unhealthy diet and low physical activity are prevalent in both rural and urban communities. The socio-demographic and economic transition has a big role in the current rise of non-communicable diseases in Tanzania. There are initiatives to control the burden of non-communicable diseases in the country. However there is need to focus more on primary prevention at population level targeting interventions to reduce exposure to tobacco, reduce alcohol intake, reduce salt intake, promote healthy diets and physical activity. For the prevention and control of NCDs, there needs to be a continuum from primary to tertiary prevention and a scope of interventions from the community level up to the national level. Community-based interventions are needed targeting the risk factors for primary prevention. In addition, secondary prevention measures are needed targeting those at high risk to ensure that they are identified early through a high risk targeted screening for early identification and appropriate care. Effective policies are needed to support such interventions.