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This paper assesses the local economic impact of pelagic Sargassum seaweed washed ashore in tourism-heavy coastal zones in the Mexican State of Quintana Roo. The study relies on a carefully designed Geographic Information Systems (GIS) dataset of monthly observations from 2016 to 2019 for 157 beach segments. The dataset comprises an innovate measure of Sargassum seaweed presence, remotely sensed nighttime light intensity as a proxy of economic growth, as well as information on key infrastructure, sociodemographic and beach characteristics. We apply a fixed-effects regression model that controls for general time trends and unobserved, time-invariant differences across observations. We estimate that the presence of Sargassum in a beach segment reduces nighttime light intensity by 17.5%, representing an approximate 11.6% decrease in gross local product. Considering that impacts of Sargassum on local economic activity may be delayed due to reputational effects, our analysis finds that significant lagged effects can be detected up until 12 months after Sargassum was detected on the shoreline. These effect sizes range between a 5.9 and a 9.9% reduction in gross local product. Various robustness checks, including an adjusted measurement of Sargassum and the consideration of potential spatial correlation across beach segments, indicate that estimated impacts are consistently significant and negative across numerous specifications. For one of most tourism-dependent regions in the world, the recurrent influx is one of the most threatening manifestations of climate change. Our research is the first to robustly quantify the economic impact of Sargassum, and highlights the extent to which economic activity is negatively affected by the accumulation of seaweed and how these effects persist over time. The next important step is for both public and private sectors to invest in forecasting systems and containment strategies as well as engage in cleanup efforts to mitigate severe accumulations, inducing economic resilience in coastal communities.

Human wellbeing relies on the Biosphere, including natural resources provided by ocean ecosystems. As multiple demands and stressors threaten the ocean, transformative change in ocean governance is required to maintain the contributions of the ocean to people. Here we illustrate how transition theory can be applied to ocean governance. We demonstrate how current economic and social systems can adapt to existing pressures and shift towards ocean stewardship through incorporation of niche innovations within and across economic sectors and stakeholder communities. These novel approaches support an emergent but purposeful transition and suggest a clear path to a thriving and vibrant relationship between humans and the ocean. Oceans provide important natural resources, but the management and governance of the ocean is complex and the ecosystem is suffering as a result. The authors discuss current barriers to sustainable ocean governance and suggest pathways forward. Oceans provide important natural resources, but the management and governance of the ocean is complex and the ecosystem is suffering as a result. The authors discuss current barriers to sustainable ocean governance and suggest pathways forward.

The first Global Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) found widespread, accelerating declines in Earth's biodiversity and associated benefits to people from nature. Addressing these trends will require science-based policy responses to reduce impacts, especially at national to local scales. Effective scaling of science-policy efforts, driven by global and national assessments, is a major challenge for turning assessment into action and will require unprecedented commitment by scientists to engage with communities of policy and practice. Fulfillment of science's social contract with society, and with nature, will require strong institutional support for scientists' participation in activities that transcend conventional research and publication.

The future of nature's contributions A recent Global Assessment by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has emphasized the urgent need to determine where and how nature's contribution matters most to people. Chaplin-Kramer et al. have developed a globalscale modeling of ecosystem services, focusing on water quality regulation, coastal protection, and crop pollination (see the Perspective by Balvanera). By 2050, up to 5 billion people may be at risk from diminishing ecosystem services, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Science , this issue p. 255 ; see also p. 184

As the world’s economies seek to use new renewable energy developments to address climate change and reinvigorate economies post-COVID-19, avoiding a fixation on targets in decision-making will ensure positive social and environmental outcomes.

Significance To achieve sustainable development, there is a pressing need to move beyond conventional economic measures like gross domestic product (GDP). We develop gross ecosystem product (GEP), a measure that summarizes the value of the contributions of nature to economic activity. We illustrate the calculation of GEP in Qinghai Province, China, to show that the approach is tractable both across China and globally. Known as the water tower of Asia, Qinghai is the source of the Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers and nearly two-thirds of GEP derives from water-related values. GEP was greater than GDP in Qinghai in 2000, and was three-fourths as large as GDP in 2015. China is using GEP to guide investments in ecosystem conservation and restoration., Gross domestic product (GDP) summarizes a vast amount of economic information in a single monetary metric that is widely used by decision makers around the world. However, GDP fails to capture fully the contributions of nature to economic activity and human well-being. To address this critical omission, we develop a measure of gross ecosystem product (GEP) that summarizes the value of ecosystem services in a single monetary metric. We illustrate the measurement of GEP through an application to the Chinese province of Qinghai, showing that the approach is tractable using available data. Known as the “water tower of Asia,” Qinghai is the source of the Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers, and indeed, we find that water-related ecosystem services make up nearly two-thirds of the value of GEP for Qinghai. Importantly most of these benefits accrue downstream. In Qinghai, GEP was greater than GDP in 2000 and three-fourths as large as GDP in 2015 as its market economy grew. Large-scale investment in restoration resulted in improvements in the flows of ecosystem services measured in GEP (127.5%) over this period. Going forward, China is using GEP in decision making in multiple ways, as part of a transformation to inclusive, green growth. This includes investing in conservation of ecosystem assets to secure provision of ecosystem services through transregional compensation payments.

Mariculture has a profound potential to meet the escalating demand for food. However, so far the understandings of spatiotemporal dynamics of mariculture and indicators of underlying mechanisms are altogether missing in the existing literature. Using high-resolution satellite images, here we provide a first ever detailed analysis to map the spatiotemporal dynamics and explore associated driving factors of mariculture expansion in Southeastern China. We find a 709% increase in total mariculture area between 2003 and 2016, with 836% increase of seaweed mariculture and 264% growth of animal mariculture, respectively. In addition, animal and seaweed mariculture went through different rates and timing of expansion. Animal mariculture area increased steadily in the two periods, exhibiting an annual growth rate of 8.2% (0.71 km2/year between 2003 and 2010) and 11.2% (1.54 km2/year between 2010 and 2016), respectively, while seaweed mariculture area experienced a rapid onset followed by a steep decline in the rate of expansion with an annual growth rate of 95.2% (28.82 km2/year between 2003 and 2010) and 1.5% (3.52 km2/year between 2010 and 2016), respectively. We find both seaweed and animal mariculture expand from the coastline out towards the ocean, surround the islands from the inside to the outside, infill the inner harbor dispersedly, and tend to aggregate away from human disturbance. Sustaining the provision of ecosystem services from coastal and marine ecosystems will require comprehensive monitoring and assessment, systematic spatial planning of mariculture and other uses, regulations of mariculture behaviors via environmental awareness education, scientific training of farm design, and management of feed and energy use in China and beyond.

A growing number of nations aim to design coastal plans to reduce conflicts in space and safeguard ecosystems that provide important benefits to people and economies. Critics of coastal and ocean planning point to a complicated process with many actors, objectives, and uncertain outcomes. This paper explores one such decision-making process in Belize, which combines ecosystem service modeling, stakeholder participation, and spatial planning to design the country’s first integrated coastal zone management plan, officially approved by the government in August 2016. We assessed risk to three coastal-marine habitats posed by eight human uses and quantified current and future delivery of three ecosystem services: protection from storms, catch and revenue from lobster fishing, and tourism expenditures to identify a preferred zoning scheme. We found that a highly adaptive team of planners, scientists, and analysts can overcome common planning obstacles, including a dearth of data describing the health of the coastal zone and the many uses it supports, complicated legal and political landscapes, and limited in-country technical capacity. Our work in Belize serves as an example for how to use science about the ways in which nature benefits people to effectively and transparently inform coastal and ocean planning decisions around the world.EDITED BY Joao Rodrigues

Climate change and population growth are degrading coastal ecosystems and increasing risks to communities and infrastructure. Reliance on seawalls and other types of hardened shorelines is unsustainable in an era of rising seas, given the costs to build and maintain these structures and their unintended consequences on ecosystems. This is especially true for communities that depend on coastal and marine ecosystems for livelihoods and sustenance. Protecting and restoring coral reefs and coastal forests can be lower cost, sustainable alternatives for shoreline protection. However, decision-makers often lack basic information about where and under what conditions ecosystems reduce risk to coastal hazards and who would benefit. To better understand where to prioritize ecosystems for coastal protection, we assessed risk reduction provided by coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass along the entire coast of The Bahamas, under current and future climate scenarios. Modeled results show that the population most exposed to coastal hazards would more than double with future sea-level rise and more than triple if ecosystems were lost or degraded. We also found that ecosystem-based risk reduction differs across islands due to variation in a suite of ecological, physical, and social variables. On some populated islands, like Grand Bahama and Abaco, habitats provide protection to disproportionately large numbers of people compared to the rest of the country. Risk reduction provided by ecosystems is also evident for several sparsely populated, remote coastal communities, which in some cases, have large elderly populations. The results from our analyses were critical for engaging policy-makers in discussions about employing natural and nature-based features for coastal resilience. After hurricanes Joaquin and Matthew hit The Bahamas in 2016 and 2017, our assessment of coastal risk reduction and the multiple benefits provided by coastal ecosystems helped pave the way for an innovative loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of The Bahamas to invest in mangrove restoration for coastal resilience. This work serves as an example for other regions and investors aiming to use assessments of ecosystem services to inform financing of natural and nature-based approaches for coastal resilience and climate adaptation.

Protecting and restoring natural capital—Earth’s lands, waters, and biodiversity, and the life-supporting goods and services that flow from these—have been promoted by many as the best hope for conserving biodiversity while also supporting sustainable, inclusive growth. Evidence is growing that illuminating the ways in which people depend on nature for their well-being can motivate efforts that improve both (Guerry et al. 2015; chapter 4, this volume). Creative yet highly dispersed innovation has shown glimpses of what is possible.

Scientific understanding of coupled social-ecological systems has grown considerably in recent years, especially for fisheries and ocean management. However, few studies test the utility of approaches that capture multiple interactions between people and ecosystems within a real-world planning process. We developed a set of quantitative models that estimate catch and revenue from the Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) fishery as a function of coastal habitat extent and quality. We applied the models iteratively, with input from stakeholders, to assess fisheries outcomes of alternative scenarios for integrated coastal zone management in Belize and sustainable development planning in The Bahamas. We found that integrated management reduces risk to nursery habitats from multiple coastal and marine activities and increases lobster catch and revenue by large margins. In Belize, siting activities such as marine transportation and tourism development to explicitly reduce risk to nursery and adult habitats enhanced returns from the lobster fishery. In The Bahamas, strategic investments in economic development that focused on updating existing infrastructure, such as roads, rather than expanding the footprint of development, increased the catch of lobster by approximately half again as much relative to a business as usual scenario. Our findings show how models that link spatial information about coastal habitats and the dynamics of a key fishery can inform expected change in catch and revenue as a result of coastal management. In addition to strengthening stakeholder understanding of social-ecological relationships and highlighting national-scale outcomes of regional development decisions, modeled results allowed us to transparently and effectively improve coastal plans to achieve the goals of the citizens and governments of Belize and The Bahamas. These cases illustrate how models that account for relationships between development, nursery habitats, and fishing catch and revenue can elevate the importance of fisheries management in national development decisions.

Growth in human population and economic activity has dramatically transformed our planet since the Industrial Revolution. While driving significant improvements in human well-being, these forms of growth also deeply eroded the natural capital embodied in Earth’s lands, waters, and biodiversity. Rapid economic development has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and raised the standard of living and life expectancies of many more, but the costs of this success cast a long shadow over future well-being.

Responsiveness and resilience to coastal disasters is an increasingly critical need for governments, businesses, and communities as the intensity of hurricanes, coastal storms and sea level rise exacerbates flood and erosion damages. The number and severity of disasters have increased significantly over the past two decades while intense coastal development has steadily degraded the protective and other ecosystem benefits from natural habitats such as coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses. Such ecosystems can provide cost-effective, long-term risk reduction and other benefits to coastal communities. Yet easy, low-cost methodologies for incorporating such natural capital values into metrics that can inform policy and investment decisions have been lacking until recently. Whereas new approaches and studies have developed ways to quantify and assess such risk reduction benefits, finding the data to assess such services in data poor environments, both for regional and local scales, remains challenging. This paper outlines how breakthroughs in data technologies can help with incorporating ecosystem benefits into real-world policy and investment applications. Specific new data and analytical technologies are increasingly being used to quantify coastal risk reduction and other ecosystem benefits. We review several case studies where ecosystem benefits were quantified based on new data technologies and used for policy and investment strategies to improve a broader suite of ecosystem benefits to coastal communities. Equipping public and private sector actors with cost-effective and accessible approaches and tools to incorporate nature-based solutions into disaster risk management and coastal zone management planning more generally can transform climate resilience strategies around the world.

Coastal protection of communities and property using “green infrastructure” approaches is gaining popularity as the science and practice improve. Guidance is limited for decision makers interested in taking action to protect shorelines. Here, we offer practical guidance for decision makers interested in moving beyond generalities for coastal protection strategies. We present three case examples from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and in Belize, each posing different questions, and thus using different approaches, to evaluate whether green infrastructure strategies could be useful. For basic questions about where habitat-based approaches are likely to add value, index-based models are useful in identifying priority areas for habitat protection or restoration. Process-based models are best used to examine strategies where the interest is in the likely magnitude of value from gray and green infrastructure approaches. Process-based models in coastal Texas demonstrate that marsh habitats are spatially variabl...

Concern about the visibility of large infrastructure development often drives public opposition to these projects. However, insufficient analytical tools to assess visibility across a large number of alternate sites prior to siting typically results in the omission of visibility in multi-criteria siting processes, leading to inferior site selection and often costly litigation. This paper presents an approach for deriving visibility maps based on the location and duration of viewing by residents and visitors and demonstrates its use in illuminating tradeoffs by comparing these maps to wind energy value maps in the context of offshore wind energy development in the Northeastern United States.

Human wellbeing relies on the Biosphere, including natural resources provided by ocean ecosystems. As multiple demands and stressors threaten the ocean, transformative change in ocean governance is required to maintain the contributions of the ocean to people. Here we illustrate how transition theory can be applied to ocean governance. We demonstrate how current economic and social systems can adapt to existing pressures and shift towards ocean stewardship through incorporation of niche innovations within and across economic sectors and stakeholder communities. These novel approaches support an emergent but purposeful transition and suggest a clear path to a thriving and vibrant relationship between humans and the ocean. Oceans provide important natural resources, but the management and governance of the ocean is complex and the ecosystem is suffering as a result. The authors discuss current barriers to sustainable ocean governance and suggest pathways forward., Oceans provide important natural resources, but the management and governance of the ocean is complex and the ecosystem is suffering as a result. The authors discuss current barriers to sustainable ocean governance and suggest pathways forward.

Coastal zones are increasingly threatened by stressors from both climate change and human activities. Vulnerability assessment is central to the implementation of interventions for adapting climate change. However, synthetic vulnerability based on an integrative analysis of ecosystem service and socioeconomic characteristics in urban coastal zones with tightly coupled human-nature interactions is not fully understood. Based on the Coastal Vulnerability model of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) tool, a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability to multiple hazards (sea level rise, waves and storm surge) was developed by integrating ecological, physical and socioeconomic factors into a single spatial representation and applied to the coast of Shenzhen, China. Based on the levels of biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of coastal communities, a three-dimensional decision matrix was proposed for planning location-specific interventions. Results show that approximately 15% of the coastline were categorized as having high vulnerability. Spatial vulnerability heterogeneity was found within and across the coastal districts, with Yantian grouped into the most vulnerable district. The biophysical exposure has greater influences on the overall vulnerability than either sensitivity or adaptive capacity. This study highlights the significance of complex interactions between natural ecosystems and socioeconomic conditions in driving vulnerability and suggests that combined natural-based defenses and socioeconomic factors contribute to lower vulnerability. The results can help decision-makers prioritize coastal zones for interventions and identifying adaptive strategies that target drivers of vulnerability.

Emerging development policies and lending standards call for consideration of ecosystem services when mitigating impacts from development, yet little guidance exists to inform this process. Here we propose a comprehensive framework for advancing both biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation. We have clarified a means for choosing representative ecosystem service targets alongside biodiversity targets, identified servicesheds as a useful spatial unit for assessing ecosystem service avoidance, impact, and offset options, and discuss methods for consistent calculation of biodiversity and ecosystem service mitigation ratios. We emphasize the need to move away from area- and habitat-based assessment methods for both biodiversity and ecosystem services towards functional assessments at landscape or seascape scales. Such comprehensive assessments more accurately reflect cumulative impacts and variation in environmental quality, social needs and value preferences. The integrated framework builds on the experience of biodiversity mitigation while addressing the unique opportunities and challenges presented by ecosystem service mitigation. These advances contribute to growing potential for economic development planning and execution that will minimize impacts on nature and maximize human wellbeing.

New infrastructure is needed globally to support economic development and improve human well-being. Investments that do not consider ecosystem services (ES) can eliminate these important societal benefits from nature, undermining the development benefits infrastructure is intended to provide. Such tradeoffs are acknowledged conceptually but in practice have rarely been considered in infrastructure planning. Taking road investments as one important case, here we examine where and what forms of ES information have the potential to meaningfully influence decisions by multilateral development banks (MDBs). Across the stages of a typical road development process, we identify where and how ES information could be integrated, likely barriers to the use of available ES information, and key opportunities to shift incentives and thereby practice. We believe inclusion of ES information is likely to provide the greatest development benefit in early stages of infrastructure decisions. Those strategic planning stages are typically guided by in-country processes, with MDBs playing a supporting role, making it critical to express the ES consequences of infrastructure development using metrics relevant to government decision makers. This approach requires additional evidence of the in-country benefits of cross-sector strategic planning and more tools to lower barriers to quantifying these benefits and facilitating ES inclusion.

While there have been rapid advances in assessments of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES), a critical remaining challenge is how to move from scientific knowledge to real-world decision making. We offer 6 lessons from our experiences applying new approaches and tools for quantifying BES in 20 pilot demonstrations: (1) Applying a BES approach is most effective in leading to policy change as part of an iterative science-policy process; (2) simple ecological production function models have been useful in a diverse set of decision contexts, across a broad range of biophysical, social, and governance systems. Key limitations of simple models arise at very small scales, and in predicting specific future BES values; (3) training local experts in the approaches and tools is important for building local capacity, ownership, trust, and long-term success; (4) decision makers and stakeholders prefer to use a variety of BES value metrics, not only monetary values; (5) an important science gap exists in linking changes in BES to changes in livelihoods, health, cultural values, and other metrics of human wellbeing; and (6) communicating uncertainty in useful and transparent ways remains challenging.

Recent calls for ocean planning envision informed management of social and ecological systems to sustain delivery of ecosystem services to people. However, until now, no coastal and marine planning process has applied an ecosystem-services framework to understand how human activities affect the flow of benefits, to create scenarios, and to design a management plan. We developed models that quantify services provided by corals, mangroves, and seagrasses. We used these models within an extensive engagement process to design a national spatial plan for Belize’s coastal zone. Through iteration of modeling and stakeholder engagement, we developed a preferred plan, currently under formal consideration by the Belizean government. Our results suggest that the preferred plan will lead to greater returns from coastal protection and tourism than outcomes from scenarios oriented toward achieving either conservation or development goals. The plan will also reduce impacts to coastal habitat and increase revenues from lobster fishing relative to current management. By accounting for spatial variation in the impacts of coastal and ocean activities on benefits that ecosystems provide to people, our models allowed stakeholders and policymakers to refine zones of human use. The final version of the preferred plan improved expected coastal protection by >25% and more than doubled the revenue from fishing, compared with earlier versions based on stakeholder preferences alone. Including outcomes in terms of ecosystem-service supply and value allowed for explicit consideration of multiple benefits from oceans and coasts that typically are evaluated separately in management decisions.

International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions., Life cycle assessments are used by corporations to determine the sustainability of raw source materials. Here, Chaplin-Kramer et al. develop an improved life cycle assessment approach incorporating spatial variation in land-use change, and apply this framework to a bioplastic case study.

Globally, the human population is fast approaching 10 billion people, with nearly a third located within 100 km of the sea. As the list of environmental ills facing the ocean and coasts grows longer, it becomes increasingly important to understand the cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors and the most promising interventions to bolster ecosystems. In this chapter we share our experience using transdisciplinary approaches and ecosystem services to inform two government-led spatial planning processes in the Caribbean: Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Belize and Sustainable Development Planning in The Bahamas. We describe the science–policy process in these two countries in light of three important components of transdisciplinarity: (1) solutions-oriented research, (2) coproduction of knowledge, and (3) multiple disciplines. By accounting for the ways in which communities depend on ecosystems, as well as affect them, we explore how the governments of Belize and The Bahamas aim to reach a broader set of actors and to direct investments, planning, and decision making to promote conservation and foster human well-being at the same time.

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones—with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of spatial scale in estimating such impacts. These results offer a valuable decision-support tool by helping to constrain the decision space, focus attention on habitats and locations at the greatest risk, and highlight effect management strategies.

Sea-level rise, potential changes in the intensity and frequency of storms, and consequent shoreline erosion and flooding will have increasing impacts on the economy and culture of coastal regions. A growing body of evidence suggests that coastal ecosystemsdnatural infrastructuredcan play an important role in reducing the vulnerability of people and property to these impacts. To effectively inform climate adaptation planning, experts often struggle to develop relevant local and regional information at a scale that is appropriate for decision-making. In addition, institutional capacity and resource constraints often limit planners’ ability to incorporate innovative, scientifically based approaches into planning. In this paper, we detail our collaborative process in two coastal California counties to account for the role of natural infrastructure in climate adaptation planning. We used an interdisciplinary team of scientists, economists, engineers, and law and policy experts and planners, and an iterative engagement process to (1) identify natural infrastructure that is geographically relevant to local jurisdictional planning units, (2) refine data and models to reflect regional processes, and (3) develop metrics likely to resonate within the local decision contexts. Using an open source decisionsupport tool, we demonstrated that protecting existing natural infrastructuredincluding coastal dunes and wetlandsdcould reduce the vulnerability of water resource-related structures, coastal populations, and farmland most exposed to coastal flooding and erosion. This information formed part of the rationale for priority climate adaptation projects the county governments are now pursuing. Our collaborative and iterative approach, as well as replicable use of an open source decision-support tool, facilitated inclusion of relevant natural infrastructure information into regional climate adaptation planning processes and products. This approach can be applied in diverse coastal climate adaptation planning contexts to locate and characterize the degree to which specific natural habitats can reduce vulnerability to sea-level rise and storms.

This study considered whether different population viability analyses give similar estimates of extinction risk across management contexts. We compared the performance of population viability analyses developed by numerous scientific teams to estimate extinction risk of anadromous Pacific salmonids listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and challenged each analysis with data from 34 populations. We found variation in estimated extinction risk among analytical techniques, which was driven by varying model assumptions and the inherent uncertainty of risk forecasts. This result indicates that the scientific teams developed techniques that perform differently. We recommend that managers minimize uncertainty in risk estimates by using multiple models tailored to the local ecology. Assessment of relative extinction risk was less sensitive to model assumptions than was assessment of absolute extinction risk. Thus, the former method is better for comparing population status and raises caution about...

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services.

As part of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment, over 60 subject-matter experts from government agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector assessed the current and projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Here, we introduce and provide context for the papers included in this Special Issue, drawing upon the key findings from separate assessments of biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, climate-change impacts in the context of other stressors, and societal responses to change (ie climate adaptation). We also explain the assessment process and show how the current state of knowledge can be used to identify risks and guide future research and management initiatives.

Despite broad interest in using payment for ecosystem services to promote changes in the use of natural capital, there are few expost assessments of impacts of payment for ecosystem services programs on ecosystem service provision, program cost, and changes in livelihoods resulting from program participation. In this paper, we evaluate the Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program in Beijing, China, and associated changes in service providers’ livelihood activities. The PLDL is a land use conversion program that aims to protect water quality and quantity for the only surface water reservoir that serves Beijing, China’s capital city with nearly 20 million residents. Our analysis integrates hydrologic data with household survey data and shows that the PLDL generates benefits of improved water quantity and quality that exceed the costs of reduced agricultural output. The PLDL has an overall benefit–cost ratio of 1.5, and both downstream beneficiaries and upstream providers gain from the program. Household data show that changes in livelihood activities may offset some of the desired effects of the program through increased expenditures on agricultural fertilizers. Overall, however, reductions in fertilizer leaching from land use change dominate so that the program still has a positive net impact on water quality. This program is a successful example of water users paying upstream landholders to improve water quantity and quality through land use change. Program evaluation also highlights the importance of considering behavioral changes by program participants.

Extreme weather, sea-level rise and degraded coastal ecosystems are placing people and property at greater risk of damage from coastal hazards 1‐5 . The likelihood and magnitude of losses may be reduced by intact reefs and coastal vegetation 1 , especially when those habitats fringe vulnerable communities and infrastructure. Using five sea-level-rise scenarios, we calculate a hazard index for every 1 km 2 of the United States coastline. We use this index to identify the most vulnerable people and property as indicated by being in the upper quartile of hazard for the nation’s coastline. The number of people, poor families, elderly and total value of residential property that are most exposed to hazards can be reduced by half if existing coastal habitats remain fully intact. Coastal habitats defend the greatest number of people and total property value in Florida, New York and California. Our analyses deliver the first national map of risk reduction owing to natural habitats and indicates where conservation and restoration of reefs and vegetation have the greatest potential to protect coastal communities. Globally, coastal flooding and sea level are expected to increase significantly by mid-century, with potentially severe consequences for coastal populations around the world 6 . In the United States

Triple–bottom-line outcomes from resource management and conservation, where conservation goals and equity in social outcomes are maximized while overall costs are minimized, remain a highly sought-after ideal. However, despite widespread recognition of the importance that equitable distribution of benefits or costs across society can play in conservation success, little formal theory exists for how to explicitly incorporate equity into conservation planning and prioritization. Here, we develop that theory and implement it for three very different case studies in California (United States), Raja Ampat (Indonesia), and the wider Coral Triangle region (Southeast Asia). We show that equity tends to trade off nonlinearly with the potential to achieve conservation objectives, such that similar conservation outcomes can be possible with greater equity, to a point. However, these case studies also produce a range of trade-off typologies between equity and conservation, depending on how one defines and measures social equity, including direct (linear) and no trade-off. Important gaps remain in our understanding, most notably how equity influences probability of conservation success, in turn affecting the actual ability to achieve conservation objectives. Results here provide an important foundation for moving the science and practice of conservation planning—and broader spatial planning in general—toward more consistently achieving efficient, equitable, and effective outcomes.

Tools that integrate the complexity of natural systems are needed to facilitate ecosystem-based management (EBM). Loop analysis is an underutilized qualitative tool for EBM that uses information on foodweb links (e.g. predator–prey interactions) and the resulting pathways (cycles) through the foodweb to predict responses to press perturbations. We explore the utility of loop analysis related to management actions: increasing crab abundance and reducing eutrophication in coastal foodwebs. We found that crab-related management actions propagated through the foodweb, with positive and negative impacts. Several negatively impacted species support important fisheries; their declines illustrate the challenge of developing multispecies plans. In our analysis, the management actions decreasing eutrophication reduced most functional groups. However, these predictions were unreliable, suggesting indiscernible bottom-up effects in the foodwebs. Simultaneously managing for crab increases and reducing eutrophication created mostly decreasing abundances in other functional groups and reduced the predictability of the responses. The response to each management action suggests trade-offs between goals, and the qualitatively unreliable predictions could result from variation in the strength of species interactions or indicate knowledge gaps. EBM can benefit from both the explicit articulation of trade-offs and the identification of gaps in our understanding of these systems.