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“The IMF’s Role in the Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises” provides a guided narrative to the IMF’s policy papers on sovereign debt produced over the last 40 years. The papers are divided into chapters, tracking four historical phases: the 1980s debt crisis; the Mexican crisis and the design of policies to ensure adequate private sector involvement (“creditor bail-in”); the Argentine crisis and the search for a durable crisis resolution framework; and finally, the global financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, and their aftermaths.

ICP8 is the major single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) binding protein of the herpes simplex virus type 1 and is required for the onset and maintenance of viral genomic replication. To identify regions responsible for the cooperative binding to ssDNA, several mutants of ICP8 have been characterized. Total reflection X-ray fluorescence experiments on the constructs confirmed the presence of one zinc atom per molecule. Comparative analysis of the mutants by electrophoretic mobility shift assays was done with oligonucleotides for which the number of bases is approximately that occluded by one protein molecule. The analysis indicated that neither removal of the 60-amino-acid C-terminal region nor Cys254Ser and Cys455Ser mutations qualitatively affect the intrinsic DNA binding ability of ICP8. The C-terminal deletion mutants, however, exhibit a total loss of cooperativity on longer ssDNA stretches. This behavior is only slightly modulated by the two-cysteine substitution. Circular dichroism experiments suggest a role for this C-terminal tail in protein stabilization as well as in intermolecular interactions. The results show that the cooperative nature of the ssDNA binding of ICP8 is localized in the 60-residue C-terminal region. Since the anchoring of a C- or N-terminal arm of one protein onto the adjacent one on the DNA strand has been reported for other ssDNA binding proteins, this appears to be the general structural mechanism responsible for the cooperative ssDNA binding by this class of protein.

This paper tests for state dependence in histories of unemployment and job mobility from the first six waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Transitions between states of employment and unemployment are modelled as outcomes of binomial probit processes which are first and higher order Markov. The use of simulation estimation allows quite general intertemporal covariance structures in order to capture individual heterogeneity. It is investigated how differences in human capital and other personal characteristics, and macro or industry determinants such as regional unemployment, growth and immigration pressure affect labour mobility.

In a global economy beset by concerns over a growth recession, financial volatility, and rising inflation, countries in the Western Hemisphere have been among the few bright spots in recent years. This has not come as a surprise to those following the significant progress achieved by many countries in recent years, both in macroeconomic management and on the structural and institutional front. Hence, there can be little doubt, as this book argues, that economic and financial linkages between Latin America, the United States, and other important regions of the world economy have undergone profound change.

Robust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses -- it's a record to be envied. These outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies, as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these policies and the economy's salient features, including its close trade integration with the United States, large commodity sector, and substantial decentralization and regional diversity. It outlines what is unique about the Canadian experience and sheds light on policies and philosophies that can be fruitfully applied in other economies.

Robust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses - it's a record to be envied. These outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these policies and the economy's salient features, including its close trade integration with the United States, large commodity sector, and substantial decentralization and regional diversity. What is unique about the Canadian experience is delineated, while polices and philosophies that can be fruitfully applied in other economies are illuminated.

This paper describes potential benefits from Canada's expanding oil sands production, higher energy exports, and further improvements in the terms of trade. Contrary to the previous Canadian exchange rate literature, this paper finds that both energy and nonenergy commodity prices have an influence on the Canadian dollar, and some upward pressure on the exchange rate would therefore be expected. Model results suggest, however, that the impact on other tradable goods exports is limited.

This paper presents an overview of recent U.S. fiscal developments and discusses possible implications of the sharp turn around in the government’s fiscal position. Against this back ground, it also reviews key policy challenges that will need to be addressed to cope with the mounting pressures on public retirement and health care systems during the next decade. The study draws principally from back ground papers that were prepared for the IMF staff’s annual consultation discussions with the U.S.authorities in 2002 and 2003.

This paper presents an overview of recent U.S. fiscal developments and discusses possible implications of the sharp turn around in the government’s fiscal position. Against this back ground, it also reviews key policy challenges that will need to be addressed to cope with the mounting pressures on public retirement and health care systems during the next decade. The study draws principally from back ground papers that were prepared for the IMF staff’s annual consultation discussions with the U.S.authorities in 2002 and 2003.

The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare. The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare. The paper develops a general equilibrium framework to examine the economic implications of population aging in Japan. Particular attention is paid to aggregate saving behavior which is modeled on the basis of empirical age-earnings profiles using a life-cycle approach. The paper's objectives are to (i) estimate the output loss caused by demographic changes and assess the impact of aging on Japan's government finances; and (ii) compare fiscal policy options with respect to their effects on output growth and economic welfare.

This paper discusses recent trends in Indian saving behavior and reviews policy options to increase domestic saving. In the absence of forceful policy measures, private saving would continue to rise gradually, but probably not by enough to finance the government’s growth target of 7 percent over the next decade. The most promising way to boost domestic saving would be through increased public saving and a strong structural reform program, including financial liberalization, which would initiate a virtuous growth-saving circle. To increase the efficiency of the savings allocation, particular attention should be paid to long-term saving instruments.

This paper is assessing various leading indicators of inflation in Finland and their practical role in a framework for Finnish monetary policy under a floating exchange rate. Following Friedman (1990) who argued for the explicit inclusion of a broad set of economic indicators in the monetary decision process, absent a practical intermediate target, this paper tests a large number of indicators for their relevance in determining future inflationary pressure and guiding monetary policy. The robustness of the indicators is examined under different models, guided by alternative views of the monetary transmission process. The results indicate that a monetary conditions index, stumpage prices, and real and nominal effective exchange rates are among the strongest indicators, affecting inflation with a lag of between 4 and 11 quarters.

This paper assesses the economic performance during 1986-93 of sub-Saharan African countries as a group and of selected analytical subgroups of countries.

This paper assesses the economic performance during 1986-93 of sub-Saharan African countries as a group and of selected analytical subgroups of countries.

Schätzung eines vollständigen Systems der Güternachfrage und des Arbeitsangebots für eine Stichprobe französischer Haushalte, von Richard Blundell, François Laisney, Matthias Ruth. Um ein vollständiges Nachfragesystem zu erhalten, das mit dem Treffen von Entscheidungen uber den Lebenszyklus yereinbar ist, verwenden wir Schätzungsergebnisse, die zuvor hinsichtlich des Arbeitsangebotes für die verheirateten Frauen zur Identifizierung der Parameter quasi-homothetischer Präferenzen erzielt wurden, die man für 16 Güterkategorien definiert hatte. Geschätzt wurden diese Präferenzen anhand einer Stichprobe von Haushalten auf der Grundlage eines Ehepaares, die aus der Erhebung "Familienbudgets 1978-1979" des Staatlichen Instituts für Statistik und Wirtschaftsstudien (INSEE) stammte. Wir unterscheiden zwischen vier Regimen, und zwar je nachdem, ob den Angaben eines Haushaltes zufolge Käufe in den Kategorien Tabakwaren und Alkohol getätigt worden sind oder nicht, und behandeln die anderen möglichen Nullausgaben als Resultante des Phänomens "seltene Käufe". Für den minimalen Konsum benutzen wir eine überaus detaillierte Parametrisierung in Abhängigkeit soziodemographischer Merkmale, wobei der symmetrischen Behandlung der Merkmale des Mannes und der Frau eine besondere Bedeutung zukommt. Diagnosen der Hypothèse von der Trennbarkeit zwischen Freizeit und Gutern bei den Präferenzen, einer Hypothèse, die der angenommenen Schätzstrategie zugrunde liegt, verwerfen eindeutig diese Hypothèse für die yier Gûterkategorien "Bekleidung und Schuhe", "langlebige Güter", "Transport und Kommunikation" sowie "Dienstleistungen zu ermäßigtem MwSt.-Satz". Zurückzuführen ist dieses Ergebnis möglicherweise auf das Vorhandensein von Fixkosten bei der Tätigkeit, die diese Güterkategorien jeweils zum Gegenstand hat., Simulations of Direct and Indirect Household Taxation Reforms in France, by François Laisney, Martin Mühleisen, Matthias Staat and Stefan Vögele. This article studies how the welfare of French households is affected by the simultaneous implementation of an indirect tax reform (different variants of the first VAT harmonization proposal made by the European Commission) and a direct tax reform (different variants of an attenuation of the income-split tax system, a particularity of the French tax system that could be interpreted as aiming to adapt the tax burden to the demographic make-up of households) on constant tax revenue. A comparison is made between two reference-situation grading approaches combined with two approaches simulating household reactions to changes in the tax system. One of these approaches takes into account the existence of fixed labour costs. The two approaches show that the implementation of the Commission's proposal, which keeps the reduced rate stable, can be favourable to a small majority of the households studied (although a status quo is preferable on the basis of a number of other criteria). However, they also find that the normal rate ensuring the steadfastness of tax revenue goes beyond the limits imposed by the Commission. On the other hand, although the simultaneous introduction of an attenuation ofthe income-split tax system brings the normal rate back down in the desired space of time and thus reduces the level of prices, the associated reform is clearly less desirable than that concerning VAT only. This result runs counter to the opinion that tax breaks with respect to the income-split tax system are only significant for the wealthiest households., Simulations de réformes de la fiscalité directe et indirecte des ménages en France, par François Laisney, Martin Mühleisen, Matthias Staat, Stefan Vögele. Nous étudions les effets sur le bien-être des ménages français de la mise en œuvre simultanée d'une réforme de la fiscalité indirecte (différentes variantes de la première proposition d'harmonisation de la TVA faite parla Commission européenne) et d'une réforme de la fiscalité directe (différentes variantes d'une atténuation du système du "quotient familial"), effectuée à recettes fiscales constantes. Nous comparons deux approches du calibrage de la situation de référence, auxquelles sont associées deux approches de la simulation des réactions des ménages aux modifications du système fiscal. L'une de ces approches prend en compte l'existence de coûts fixes liés au travail. Pour les deux approches nous trouvons que la mise en œuvre de la proposition de la Commission maintenant inchangé le taux réduit, peut être favorable a une courte majorité des ménages étudiés (le statu quo apparaissant toutefois préférable sur la base de multiples autres critères) mais que le taux normal qui assure la constance des recettes fiscales, sort des limites imposées par la Commission. Par contre, bien que l'introduction simultanée d'une atténuation du système du quotient familial permette de ramener le taux normal dans l'intervalle désiré, et réduise ainsi le niveau des prix, la réforme jointe apparaît nettement moins désirable que celle qui ne concerne que la TVA. Ce résultat va à rencontre de l'opinion selon laquelle l'allégement fiscal lié au quotient familial n'est significatif que pour les ménages les plus aisés., Simulaciones de reformas de la fiscalidad directa e indirecta de las familias en Francia, por François Laisney, Martin Mühleisen, Matthias Staat y Stefan Vögele. Los autores de este artículo estudian los efectos sobre el bienestar de las familias francesas de la aplicación simultánea de una reforma de la fiscalidad indirecta (diversas variantes de la primera propuesta de armonización del IVArealizada por la Comunidad Europea) y de una reforma de la fiscalidad directa (diversas variantes de una atenuación del sistema del "cociente familiar", que es una particularidad del sistema francés que se puede interpretar como un ajuste del gravamen que supone el impuesto a la composition demográfica de la f amilia), y ello con ingresos fiscales constantes. Se comparan dos enfoques de calibración de la situación de referenda, a los cuales se asocian dos enfoques de la simulación de las reacciones de las familias ante las modificaciones del sistema tributario. En uno de estos enfoques se tiene en cuenta la existencia de costes fijos relacionados con el trabajo. Para ambos enfoques se observa que la implementación de la propuesta de la Comisión, que no modifica actualmente la tasa reducida puede resultar favorable para una corta mayoría de las familias estudiadas (el statu quo parece, no obstante, ser preferible según la base de otros múltiples criterios) pero que, por otra parte, la tasa normal que asegura la constancia de los ingresos fiscales está fuera de los límites impuestos por la Comisión. En cambio, a pesar de que la introducción simultánea de una atenuación del sistema del cociente familiar permita reducir la tasa normal en el intervalo deseado - y reduzca así el nivel de los precios - la reforma adjunta parece ser mucho menos deseable que aquella que únicamente se refiere al IVA. Este resultado es contrario de la opinión según la cual la bonificación fiscal relacionada con el cociente familiar únicamente llega a ser significativa al tratarse de las familias más acomodadas., Laisney François, Mühleisen Martin, Staat Matthias, Vögele Stefan. Simulations de réformes de la fiscalité directe et indirecte des ménages en France. In: Économie & prévision, n°110-111, 1993-4-5. Fiscalité et redistribution. pp. 129-150.

Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.

A key question for U.S. policymakers is whether the recent strength in federal revenue is likely to continue. This question is addressed through an econometric analysis of the determinants of tax revenue, using time series that are adjusted for tax policy changes. The results suggest that growth in corporate profits and capital gains each contributed forty percent of the increase in the revenue-to-GDP ratio from 2004-2006, and rising income inequality explains much of the rest. While part of the revenue rise is the result of structural changes taking place in the U.S. economy, some of the recent buoyancy is likely to prove temporary, reflecting the highly cyclical nature of these variables.

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other countries since the mid-1990s. The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment as well as institutional factors, such as Canada's asymmetric deficit target, have likely contributed to this outcome.

The analysis of this paper indicates that the unsatisfactory overall economic performance of sub-Saharan African countries during 1986–93 was due to inappropriate policies pursued by a number of countries. The countries that have pursued broadly appropriate adjustment policies have performed much better, achieving positive per capita GDP growth. The analysis is supported with an econometric investigation of the effects of macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and exogenous factors on economic performance. The results indicate that progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and implementing structural reforms have been conducive to better growth, savings, and private investment.

The influence of K + , Na + , Mg ++ , Li + , a serotonin, acetylcholine and tubocurarine on calcium-ganglioside-interactions was studied by way of equilibrium dialysis using 45 Ca as tracer. Experiments were carried out at 22 °C and 4 °C, respectively. The concentrations of the substances were in the range of physiologically relevant conditions. Cations caused a release of Ca ++ from calcium-ganglioside-complexes in the sequence of their molar efficiency: Mg ++ ≈ Li + > K + ≈ Na + . Tubocurarine, serotonin and acetylcholine also affected calcium-ganglioside-interactions. Ca ++ was displaced from ganglioside most effectively by tubocurarine, followed by serotonin, whereas acetylcholine competed considerably more weakly.

1. 1.The concentration of proteins, sialo-glycoproteins and gangliosides and the ganglioside composition of eight brain regions from summer- and winter- acclimated Djungarian hamster ( Phodopus sungorus ) were investigated. 2. 2.In addition to seasonal variations in the concentration of proteins, sialo-glycoproteins and gangliosides significant differences in the ganglioside composition occurred; the amounts of the more polar compounds (G Tlb in some structures and G Qlb in all brain regions) were higher in winter than in summer. 3. 3.Most striking was the complete absence of the less-polar ganglioside N , O -acetylated G Tlb during winter. 4. 4.The results are discussed with regard to general scheme of brain ganglioside implication in the process of modulation of the synaptic membrane in response to thermal challenge. These data on changes in polarity of the brain gangliosides are in agreement with physico-chemical in vitro results using ganglioside monolayers

The effect of K+, Mg2+ and serotonin on the interaction between Ca2+ and different phospholipids as well as glycosphingolipids (gangliosides) was studied by equilibrium dialysis using 45Ca as tracer. The highly polar phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate (TPI) was found to bind more Ca2+ per lipid molecule than all other lipids tested and Ca2+ could not be released as easily as in the other lipids by K+, Mg2+ and serotonin. Ca2+ is released from all lipid-Ca2+ complexes most effectively by Mg2+, serotonin is less effective but enhances K+ in its capacity to displace Ca2+ from the respective binding sites. A remarkable dissociating influence of serotonin on ganglioside-Ca2+ and phosphatidylserine-Ca2+ complexes is observed. This effect is less pronounced with phosphatidylinositol-Ca2+ complexes under comparable comparable conditions. The possible functional role of phospholipids and gangliosides in vivo is discussed with regard to the specific Ca2+-binding properties of these lipids.

1. 1.|The concentration and composition of the brain gangliosides of 35 fish species belonging to the agnathes, chondrichthyes and osteichthyes living in biotops of different temperature were analysed. 2. 2.|The concentration varies between values of 110–750 μg NeuAc/g fresh wt. 3. 3.|The composition of gangliosides deviates considerably with the following tendency: the lower the environmental temperature–the higher the degree of sialylation (⋍ polarity) of brain gangliosides. 4. 4.|By means of equilibrium dialysis using 45 Ca 2+ a significant thermosensitivity of Ca 2+ -ganglioside complexes was shown only when the ganglioside molecules were inserted into the lipid bilayer of liposomes.

1. 1. The concentration of proteins, sialo-glycoproteins and gangliosides and the ganglioside composition of 8 brain regions from normothermic and hibernating fat dormice (Glis glis) and from laboratory mice being acclimated to 6, 22 and 28°C were investigated. 2. 2. During hibernation the concentration of sialo-glycoproteins and gangliosides decreased significantly in brain of dormice; the protein content remained uninfluenced. 3. 3. Cold-exposure of laboratory mice yielded generally a slightly decreased sialo-glycoprotein concentration in brain; the data on ganglioside concentration in the CNS were not uniform. 4. 4. The ganglioside composition of brain of laboratory mice being kept at different environmental temperatures did not show any alterations. 5. 5. The brain gangliosides of hibernating dormice in contrast to their normothermic counterparts are more polar (higher amount of GT1b and GQ1b.). 6. 6. Most striking in the complete absence of a distinct ganglioside fraction (O-acetylated-GT1b) during hibernation. 7. 7. Brain gangliosides of normothermic dormice were found to be more sensitive against neuraminidase treatment than those of hibernating animals. 8. 8. The results are discussed with regard to modulatory functions of neuronal gangliosides for the process of synaptic transmission during seasonal adaptation.

Renal arteries of the rabbit were chemically skinned using Triton X-100. In EGTA-buffered solutions containing calmodulin and ATP, small strips of the skinned preparations were found to develop contractile force which was dependent on the concentrations of either free calcium or of free barium. However, a 220 times greater concentration of barium than of calcium was necessary for comparable effects. Quantitatively, the response to barium was dependent on the concentration of calmodulin added to the test solutions. The contractile effect of barium was partly antagonized by the calmodulin antagonist, trifluoperazine.