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Background Coronary atherosclerosis detected by imaging is a marker of elevated cardiovascular risk. However, imaging involves large resources and exposure to radiation. The aim was, therefore, to test whether nonimaging data, specifically data that can be self‐reported, could be used to identify individuals with moderate to severe coronary atherosclerosis. Methods and Results We used data from the population‐based SCAPIS (Swedish CardioPulmonary BioImage Study) in individuals with coronary computed tomography angiography (n=25 182) and coronary artery calcification score (n=28 701), aged 50 to 64 years without previous ischemic heart disease. We developed a risk prediction tool using variables that could be assessed from home (self‐report tool). For comparison, we also developed a tool using variables from laboratory tests, physical examinations, and self‐report (clinical tool) and evaluated both models using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, external validation, and benchmarked against factors in the pooled cohort equation. The self‐report tool (n=14 variables) and the clinical tool (n=23 variables) showed high‐to‐excellent discriminative ability to identify a segment involvement score ≥4 (area under the curve 0.79 and 0.80, respectively) and significantly better than the pooled cohort equation (area under the curve 0.76, P

Abstract It is unclear how increasing body mass index (BMI) influences risk of cancer in young women. We used data from the Medical Birth, Patient and Cause of Death registers collected between 1982 and 2014 to determine the risk of obesity-related cancer types, breast cancer, all cancer and cancer-related death in relation to BMI in 1,386,725 women, aged between 18 and 45 years, in Sweden. During a median follow-up of 16.3 years (IQR 7.7–23.5), 9808 women developed cancer. The hazard ratio (HR) of endometrial and ovarian cancer increased with higher BMI from 1.08 (95% CI 0.93–1.24) and 1.08 (95% CI 0.96–1.21) among women with BMI 22.5–

Abstract Overweight and obesity rates have increased in recent decades, particularly among the younger population. The long-term consequences of obesity with respect to early venous thromboembolism (VTE) in women have not been established. The aim was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) in early pregnancy as a proxy for non-pregnant weight and long-term post-pregnancy risk of VTE in women. This registry-based prospective cohort study analysed data from the Swedish Medical Birth Registry, linked to the National Patient and the National Cause of Death Registries for information on post-pregnancy long-term risk of VTE. Cox proportional hazards model were used to determine the association between BMI at baseline and VTE events during follow-up starting 1 year after baseline. The mean age at registration was 27.5 (standard deviation, 4.9) years. During a median follow-up duration of 12 years (interquartile range, 6–21 years) starting 1 year after the first antenatal visit, 1765 and 2549 women had a deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism. The risk of VTE linearly increased with increasing BMI. Compared to women with 20 ≤ BMI

Abstract Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with increased secretion of apoB-containing lipoproteins and increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). ApoB-containing lipoproteins include low-density lipoproteins (LDLs) and triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (TRLs); and since both LDLs and TRLs are causally related to CHD, they may mediate a portion of the increased risk of atherosclerosis seen in people with NAFLD. In a cohort of 4161 middle aged men and women, we performed mediation analysis in order to quantify the mediating effect of apoB-containing lipoproteins in the relationship between liver fat and atherosclerosis—as measured by coronary artery calcium score (CACS). We found plasma apoB to mediate 17.6% (95% CI 11–24) of the association between liver fat and CACS. Plasma triglycerides and TRL-cholesterol (both proximate measures of TRL particles) mediated 22.3% (95% CI 11–34) and 21.6% (95% CI 10–33) of the association respectively; whereas LDL-cholesterol mediated 5.4% (95% CI 2.0–9.4). In multivariable models, the mediating effect of TRL-cholesterol and plasma triglycerides showed, again, a higher degree of mediation than LDL-cholesterol, corroborating the results seen in the univariable models. In summary, we find around 20% of the association between liver fat and CACS to be mediated by apoB-containing lipoproteins. In addition, we find that TRLs mediate the majority of this effect whereas LDLs mediate a smaller effect. These results explain part of the observed CAD-risk burden for people with NAFLD and further suggest that TRL-lowering may be particularly beneficial to mitigate NAFLD-associated coronary artery disease risk.

Abstract Objective Since obesity and poor fitness appear to be unfavorable for both cardiovascular health and coping with viral infections such as COVID‐19, they are of specific interest in light of the increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory events now seen after infection with SARS‐CoV‐2. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate how body mass index (BMI) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in late adolescence are associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, and mortality after COVID‐19. Methods In this study, 1.5 million 18‐year‐old Swedish men with BMI and CRF measured during enlistment for military service 1968–2005 were included. Hospitalized and non‐hospitalized COVID‐19 cases were identified through the Patient Register or positive polymerase chain reaction tests, and age‐matched with non‐infected controls. CVD, respiratory disease, and mortality after COVID‐19 were divided into 180days post‐infection. Cox regression models were used. Results Hospitalized COVID‐19 cases (n = 9839), compared to controls, had >10‐fold, 50 to 70‐fold, and >70‐fold hazards of CVD, respiratory disease, and mortality over the initial 60 days post‐infection with little variation across BMI or CRF categories. The elevated risks persisted at declining levels >180 days. For non‐hospitalized COVID‐19 cases (n = 181,822), there was a 4‐ to 7‐fold increased acute mortality risk, and high CRF was associated with lower risk of post‐infectious respiratory disease. Conclusions The high hazards of adverse outcomes during the first two months after COVID‐19 hospitalization, and across BMI and CRF categories, declined rapidly but were still elevated after six months. Adolescent CRF was associated with respiratory disease after COVID‐19 without hospitalization, which gives further support to the health benefits of physical activity.

Abstract The volume of epicardial adipose tissue (EATV) is increased in type-2 diabetes (T2D), while its attenuation (EATA) appears to be decreased. Similar patterns have been suggested in pre-diabetes, but data is scarce. In both pre-diabetes and T2D, any independent role of EATV and EATA in disease development remains to be proven, a task complicated by their substantial co-variation with other anthropometrics, e.g. BMI, waist circumference, and abdominal visceral adipose tissue (VAT). EATV and EATA was quantified in computed tomography (CT) images in a population study (n = 1948) using an automatic technique. Data was available on BMI, waist circumference, abdominal visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area, insulin resistance (IR) and glucose tolerance, the latter ranging from normal (NGT), over pre-diabetes (impaired fasting glucose [IFG, n = 414] impaired glucose tolerance [IGT, n = 321] and their combination [CGI, n = 128]), to T2D. EATV was increased in pre-diabetes, T2D and IR in univariable analyses and when adjusting for BMI, however not when adjusting for waist or VAT. EATA was reduced in pre-diabetes, T2D and IR in univariable analyses and when adjusting for BMI and waist, however not when adjusting for VAT. Adjustment for other co-variates had little influence on the results. In conclusion, EATV is increased and EATA reduced in pre-diabetes, T2D and IR, however, significant co-variation with other anthropometrics, especially VAT, obscures their function in disease development. The current results do not exclude a pathophysiological role of epicardial fat, but future studies need to adjust for anthropometrics, or focus on the microenvironment within the pericardial sac.

Abstract Aim We aim to assess the risk of heart failure in patients with obesity with and without gastric bypass surgery compared with population controls. Methods and results This cohort study included all patients aged 20–65 years with a first ever registered principal diagnosis of obesity in the Swedish Patient Register in 2001–2013. These patients were matched by age, sex, and region with two population controls from the general Swedish population without obesity diagnosis. The obesity cohort was divided into two groups: 27 882 patients who had undergone gastric bypass surgery within 2 years of obesity diagnosis and 39 564 patients who had not undergone such surgery. These groups were compared with 55 149 and 78 004 matched population controls, respectively. Cox regression provided hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for age, education, and sex. During follow‐up (maximum 10 years, median 4.4 years, and interquartile range 2.5–7.2 years), 1884 participants were hospitalized for heart failure. Compared with population controls, gastric bypass patients had no excess risk of heart failure during the initial 0–≤4 years of follow‐up (HR = 1.35 [95% CI = 0.96–1.91]) but a marked increased risk during the final >4–10 years of follow‐up (HR = 3.28 [95% CI = 2.25–4.77]). Non‐operated patients with obesity had a marked excess risk of heart failure throughout the study period compared with population controls. Conclusions Gastric bypass for obesity seems to reduce the risk of heart failure to levels similar to the general population during the initial 4 years after surgery, but not thereafter.

Abstract High body mass index (BMI) is associated with severe COVID-19 but findings regarding the need of intensive care (IC) and mortality are mixed. Using electronic health records, we identified all patients in western Sweden hospitalised with COVID-19 to evaluate 30-day mortality or assignment to IC. Adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for outcomes. Of totally 9761 patients, BMI was available in 7325 (75%), included in the study. There was a marked inverse association between BMI and age (underweight and normal weight patients were on average 78 and 75 years, whereas overweight and obese were 68 and 62 years). While older age, male sex and several comorbidities associated with higher mortality after multivariable adjustment, BMI did not. However, BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.21–1.75) was associated with need of IC; this association was restricted to women (BMI ≥ 30; OR 1.96 (95% CI 1.41–2.73), and not significant in men; OR 1.22 (95% CI 0.97–1.54). In this comprehensive hospital population with COVID-19, BMI was not associated with 30-day mortality risk. Among the obese, women, but not men, had a higher risk of assignment to IC.

Background: Studies on risk factors for severe COVID-19 in people of working age have generally not included non-working persons or established population attributable fractions (PAFs) for occupational and other factors. Objectives: We describe the effect of job-related, sociodemographic, and other exposures on the incidence, relative risks and PAFs of severe COVID-19 in individuals aged 18–64. Methods: We conducted a registry-based study in Swedish citizens aged 18–64 from 1 January 2020 to 1 February 2021 with respect to COVID-19-related hospitalizations and death. Results: Of 6,205,459 persons, 272,043 (7.5%) were registered as infected, 3399 (0.05%) needed intensive care, and 620 (0.01%) died, with an estimated case fatality rate of 0.06% over the last 4-month period when testing was adequate. Non-Nordic origin was associated with a RR for need of intensive care of 3·13, 95%CI 2·91–3·36, and a PAF of 32·2% after adjustment for age, sex, work, region and comorbidities. In a second model with occupation as main exposure, and adjusted for age, sex, region, comorbidities and origin, essential workers had an RR of 1·51, 95%CI, 1·35–1·6, blue-collar workers 1·18, 95%CI 1·06–1·31, school staff 1·21, 95%CI 1·01–1·46, and health and social care workers 1·89, 95%CI 1·67–2·135) compared with people able to work from home, with altogether about 13% of the PAF associated with these occupations. Essential workers and blue-collar workers, but no other job categories had higher risk of death, adjusted RRs of 1·79, 95%CI 1·34–2·38 and 1·37, 95%CI 1·04–1·81, with adjusted PAFs of altogether 9%. Conclusion: Among people of working age in Sweden, overall mortality and case fatality were low. Occupations that require physical presence at work were associated with elevated risk of needing intensive care for COVID-19, with 14% cases attributable to this factor, and 9% of deaths.

Background We sought to determine the role of obesity in adolescent men on development of atrial fibrillation (AF) and subsequent associated clinical outcomes in subjects diagnosed with AF. Methods and Results We conducted a nationwide, register‐based, cohort study of 1 704 467 men (mean age, 18.3±0.75 years) enrolled in compulsory military service in Sweden from 1969 through 2005. Height and weight, blood pressure, fitness, muscle strength, intelligence quotient, and medical disorders were recorded at baseline. Records obtained from the National Inpatient Registry and the Cause of Death Register were used to determine incidence and clinical outcomes of AF. During a median follow‐up of 32 years (interquartile range, 24–41 years), 36 693 cases (mean age at diagnosis, 52.4±10.6 years) of AF were recorded. The multivariable‐adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for AF increased from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.03–1.10) in individuals with body mass index (BMI) of 20.0 to 30 kg/m2 compared with those with BMI

Background Apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III) is a regulator of triglyceride (TG) metabolism, and due to its association with risk of cardiovascular disease, is an emergent target for pharmacological intervention. The impact of substantially lowering apoC-III on lipoprotein metabolism is not clear.Methods We investigated the kinetics of apolipoproteins B48 and B100 (apoB48 and apoB100) in chylomicrons, VLDL1, VLDL2, IDL, and LDL in patients heterozygous for a loss-of-function (LOF) mutation in the APOC3 gene. Studies were conducted in the postprandial state to provide a more comprehensive view of the influence of this protein on TG transport.Results Compared with non-LOF variant participants, a genetically determined decrease in apoC-III resulted in marked acceleration of lipolysis of TG-rich lipoproteins (TRLs), increased removal of VLDL remnants from the bloodstream, and substantial decrease in circulating levels of VLDL1, VLDL2, and IDL particles. Production rates for apoB48-containing chylomicrons and apoB100-containing VLDL1 and VLDL2 were not different between LOF carriers and noncarriers. Likewise, the rate of production of LDL was not affected by the lower apoC-III level, nor were the concentration and clearance rate of LDL-apoB100.Conclusion These findings indicate that apoC-III lowering will have a marked effect on TRL and remnant metabolism, with possibly significant consequences for cardiovascular disease prevention.Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04209816 and NCT01445730.Funding Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, Swedish Research Council, ALF grant from the Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Sigrid Juselius Foundation, Helsinki University Hospital Government Research funds, Finnish Heart Foundation, and Finnish Diabetes Research Foundation.

Abstract Obesity rates in adolescence and young adulthood have increased in Sweden, reflecting global trends. To which extent this occurs across different socioeconomic strata has not been clarified. The aim of the present study was to investigate trends in social inequalities in body mass index (BMI) in young/mid-adulthood Swedish women. We obtained weight and height for all women aged 20–45 years, at their first registered pregnancy (

Abstract Aims This study aims to investigate the association of resting heart rate (RHR) measured in late adolescence with long‐term risk of cause‐specific heart failure (HF) and subtypes of cardiomyopathy (CM), with special attention to cardiorespiratory fitness. Methods and results We performed a nation‐wide, register‐based cohort study of all Swedish men enrolled for conscription in 1968–2005 (n = 1 008 363; mean age = 18.3 years). RHR and arterial blood pressure were measured together with anthropometrics as part of the enlistment protocol. HF and its concomitant diagnoses, as well as all CM diagnoses, were collected from the national inpatient, outpatient, and cause of death registries. Risk estimates were calculated by Cox‐proportional hazards models while adjusting for potential confounders. During follow‐up, there were 8400 cases of first hospitalization for HF and 3377 for CM. Comparing the first and fifth quintiles of the RHR distribution, the hazard ratio (HR) for HF associated with coronary heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension was 1.25 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13–1.38] after adjustment for body mass index, blood pressure, and cardiorespiratory fitness. The corresponding HR was 1.43 (CI = 1.08–1.90) for HF associated with CM and 1.34 (CI = 1.16–1.54) for HF without concomitant diagnosis. There was an association between RHR and dilated CM [HR = 1.47 (CI = 1.27–1.71)] but not hypertrophic, alcohol/drug‐induced, or other cardiomyopathies. Conclusions Adolescent RHR is associated with future risk of HF, regardless of associated aetiological condition. The association was strongest for HF associated with CM, driven by the association with dilated CM. These findings indicate a causal pathway between elevated RHR and myocardial dysfunction that warrants further investigation.

Abstract The prevalence of non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) continues to increase dramatically, and there is no approved medication for its treatment. Recently, we predicted the underlying molecular mechanisms involved in the progression of NAFLD using network analysis and identified metabolic cofactors that might be beneficial as supplements to decrease human liver fat. Here, we first assessed the tolerability of the combined metabolic cofactors including l‐serine, N‐acetyl‐l‐cysteine (NAC), nicotinamide riboside (NR), and l‐carnitine by performing a 7‐day rat toxicology study. Second, we performed a human calibration study by supplementing combined metabolic cofactors and a control study to study the kinetics of these metabolites in the plasma of healthy subjects with and without supplementation. We measured clinical parameters and observed no immediate side effects. Next, we generated plasma metabolomics and inflammatory protein markers data to reveal the acute changes associated with the supplementation of the metabolic cofactors. We also integrated metabolomics data using personalized genome‐scale metabolic modeling and observed that such supplementation significantly affects the global human lipid, amino acid, and antioxidant metabolism. Finally, we predicted blood concentrations of these compounds during daily long‐term supplementation by generating an ordinary differential equation model and liver concentrations of serine by generating a pharmacokinetic model and finally adjusted the doses of individual metabolic cofactors for future human clinical trials.

Objective To investigate the possible connection between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and muscle strength in early adulthood and severity of COVID-19 later in life.Design Prospective registry-based cohort study.Participants 1 559 187 Swedish men, undergoing military conscription between 1968 and 2005 at a mean age of 18.3 (SD 0.73) years.Main outcome measures Hospitalisation, intensive care or death due to COVID-19 from March to September 2020, in relation to CRF and muscle strength.Results High CRF in late adolescence and early adulthood had a protective association with severe COVID-19 later in life with OR (95% CI) 0.76 (0.67 to 0.85) for hospitalisation (n=2 006), 0.61 (0.48 to 0.78) for intensive care (n=445) and 0.56 (0.37 to 0.85) for mortality (n=149), compared with the lowest category of CRF. The association remains unchanged when controlled for body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, chronic diseases and parental education level at baseline, and incident cardiovascular disease before 2020. Moreover, lower muscle strength in late adolescence showed a linear association with a higher risk of all three outcomes when controlled for BMI and height.Conclusions Physical fitness at a young age is associated with severity of COVID-19 many years later. This underscores the necessity to increase the general physical fitness of the population to offer protection against future viral pandemics.

Background: Whether infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to excess risk of requiring hospitalization or intensive care in persons with diabetes has not been reported, nor have risk factors in diabetes associated with increased risk for these outcomes. Methods: We included 44,639 and 411,976 adult patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes alive on Jan 1, 2020, and compared them to controls matched for age, sex, and county of residence (n=204,919 and 1,948,900). Age- and sex-standardized rates for COVID-19 related hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care and death, were estimated and hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression analyses. Findings: There were 10,486 hospitalizations and 1,416 admissions into intensive care. A total of 1,175 patients with diabetes and 1,820 matched controls died from COVID-19, of these 53•2% had been hospitalized and 10•7% had been in intensive care. Patients with type 2 diabetes, compared to controls, displayed an age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 2•22, 95%CI 2•13-2•32) of being hospitalized for COVID-19, which decreased to HR 1•40, 95%CI 1•34-1•47) after further adjustment for sociodemographic factors, pharmacological treatment and comorbidities, had higher risk for admission to ICU due to COVID-19 (age- and sex-adjusted HR 2•49, 95%CI 2•22-2•79, decreasing to 1•42, 95%CI 1•25-1•62 after adjustment, and increased risk for death due to COVID-19 (age- and sex-adjusted HR 2•19, 95%CI 2•03-2•36, complete adjustment 1•50, 95%CI 1•39-1•63). Age- and sex-adjusted HR for COVID-19 hospitalization for type 1 diabetes was 2•10, 95%CI 1•72-2•57), decreasing to 1•25, 95%CI 0•3097-1•62) after adjustment• Patients with diabetes type 1 were twice as likely to require intensive care for COVID-19, however, not after adjustment (HR 1•49, 95%CI 0•75-2•92), and more likely to die (HR 2•90, 95% CI 1•6554-5•47) from COVID-19, but not independently of other factors (HR 1•38, 95% CI 0•64-2•99). Among patients with diabetes, elevated glycated hemoglobin levels were associated with higher risk for most outcomes. Interpretation: In this nationwide study, type 2 diabetes was independently associated with increased risk of hospitalization, admission to intensive care and death for COVID-19. There were few admissions into intensive care and deaths in type 1 diabetes, and although hazards were significantly raised for all three outcomes, there was no independent risk persisting after adjustment for confounding factors.

Background: Comprehensive proteomics profiling may offer new insights into the dysregulated metabolic milieu of type 2 diabetes, and in the future, serve as a useful tool for personalized medicine. This calls for a better understanding of circulating protein patterns at the early stage of type 2 diabetes as well as the dynamics of protein patterns during changes in metabolic status. Methods: To elucidate the systemic alterations in early-stage diabetes and to investigate the effects on the proteome during metabolic improvement, we measured 974 circulating proteins in 52 newly diagnosed, treatment-naïve type 2 diabetes subjects at baseline and after 1 and 3 months of guideline-based diabetes treatment, while comparing their protein profiles to that of 94 subjects without diabetes. Findings: Early stage type 2 diabetes was associated with distinct protein patterns, reflecting key metabolic syndrome features including insulin resistance, adiposity, hyperglycemia and liver steatosis. The protein profiles at baseline were attenuated during guideline-based diabetes treatment and several plasma proteins associated with metformin medication independently of metabolic variables, such as circulating EPCAM. Interpretation: The results advance our knowledge about the biochemical manifestations of type 2 diabetes and suggest that comprehensive protein profiling may serve as a useful tool for metabolic phenotyping and for elucidating the biological effects of diabetes treatments. Funding: This work was supported by the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, the Swedish Research Council, the Erling Persson Foundation, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, and the Swedish state under the agreement between the Swedish government and the county councils (ALF-agreement).

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterized by hepatic lipid accumulation. The transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2) E167K genetic variant associates with NAFLD and with reduced plasma triglyceride levels in humans. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying these associations remain unclear. We hypothesized that TM6SF2 E167K affects hepatic very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) secretion and studied the kinetics of apolipoprotein B100 (apoB100) and triglyceride metabolism in VLDL in homozygous subjects. In 10 homozygote TM6SF2 E167K carriers and 10 matched controls, we employed stable-isotope tracer and compartmental modeling techniques to determine apoB100 and triglyceride kinetics in the 2 major VLDL subfractions: large triglyceride-rich VLDL1 and smaller, less triglyceride-rich VLDL2. VLDL1-apoB100 production was markedly reduced in homozygote TM6SF2 E167K carriers compared with controls. Likewise, VLDL1-triglyceride production was 35% lower in the TM6SF2 E167K carriers. In contrast, the direct production rates for VLDL2-apoB100 and triglyceride were not different between carriers and controls. In conclusion, the TM6SF2 E167K genetic variant was linked to a specific reduction in hepatic secretion of large triglyceride-rich VLDL1. The impaired secretion of VLDL1 explains the reduced plasma triglyceride concentration and provides a basis for understanding the lower risk of cardiovascular disease associated with the TM6SF2 E167K genetic variant.

Abstract To elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), we recruited 86 subjects with varying degrees of hepatic steatosis (HS). We obtained experimental data on lipoprotein fluxes and used these individual measurements as personalized constraints of a hepatocyte genome‐scale metabolic model to investigate metabolic differences in liver, taking into account its interactions with other tissues. Our systems level analysis predicted an altered demand for NAD+ and glutathione (GSH) in subjects with high HS. Our analysis and metabolomic measurements showed that plasma levels of glycine, serine, and associated metabolites are negatively correlated with HS, suggesting that these GSH metabolism precursors might be limiting. Quantification of the hepatic expression levels of the associated enzymes further pointed to altered de novo GSH synthesis. To assess the effect of GSH and NAD+ repletion on the development of NAFLD, we added precursors for GSH and NAD+ biosynthesis to the Western diet and demonstrated that supplementation prevents HS in mice. In a proof‐of‐concept human study, we found improved liver function and decreased HS after supplementation with serine (a precursor to glycine) and hereby propose a strategy for NAFLD treatment.

Background Body mass index (BMI) may be a stronger risk factor for heart failure than for coronary heart disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus, but prior studies have not been powered to investigate the relative and absolute risks for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure in type 2 diabetes mellitus by BMI and glycemic level combined as compared with age‐ and sex‐matched general population comparators. Methods and Results We identified 181 045 patients from The Swedish National Diabetes Registry, registered during 1998 to 2012 and 1538 434 general population comparators without diabetes mellitus, matched for age, sex, and county, all without prior major cardiovascular disease. Cases and comparators were followed with respect to the outcomes through linkage to the Swedish Inpatient Registry. Over a median follow‐up time of 5.7 years, there were 28 855 acute myocardial infarction and 33 060 heart failure cases among patients and comparators. Excess risk (above that of comparators in whom no data on hemoglobin A1c and BMI was available), incidence rates and hazard ratios for heart failure were substantially higher among the obese patients compared with those with low BMI, where very obese patients (BMI ≥40 kg/m2) who also had poor glycemic control, suffered a 7‐fold risk of heart failure versus comparators (reference level). By contrast, for acute myocardial infarction, the highest absolute and relative risks were found among patients with poor glycemic control, with no additional risk conferred by increasing BMI. Conclusions BMI is a strong independent risk factor for heart failure but not for acute myocardial infarction among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

The prevalence of stroke is expected to increase partly because of prolonged life expectancy in the general population. The objective of this study was to investigate trends in the prevalence of patients hospitalized with ischemic stroke (IS) in Sweden from 1995-2010.The Swedish inpatient and cause-specific death registries were used to estimate the absolute numbers and prevalence of patients who were hospitalized with and survived an IS from 1995-2010.The overall number of IS increased from 129,418 in 1995 to 148,778 in 2010. In 1995, the prevalence of IS was 189 patients per 10,000 population. An increase in overall prevalence was observed until 2000, and then it remained stable, followed by a decline with an annual percentage change of (APC) -0.8% (95% CI -1.0 to 0.6) and with a final prevalence of 199 patients per 10,000 population in 2010. The prevalence of IS in people aged

In Sweden, previous favourable trends in blood cholesterol levels have recently levelled off or even increased in some age groups since 2003, potentially reflecting changing fashions and attitudes towards dietary saturated fatty acids (SFA). We aimed to examine the potential effect of different SFA intake on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in 2025.We compared the effect on future CHD mortality of two different scenarios for fat intake a) daily SFA intake decreasing to 10 energy percent (E%), and b) daily SFA intake rising to 20 E%. We assumed that there would be moderate improvements in smoking (5%), salt intake (1g/day) and physical inactivity (5% decrease) to continue recent, positive trends.In the baseline scenario which assumed that recent mortality declines continue, approximately 5,975 CHD deaths might occur in year 2025. Anticipated improvements in smoking, dietary salt intake and physical activity, would result in some 380 (-6.4%) fewer deaths (235 in men and 145 in women). In combination with a mean SFA daily intake of 10 E%, a total of 810 (-14%) fewer deaths would occur in 2025 (535 in men and 275 in women). If the overall consumption of SFA rose to 20 E%, the expected mortality decline would be wiped out and approximately 20 (0.3%) additional deaths might occur.CHD mortality may increase as a result of unfavourable trends in diets rich in saturated fats resulting in increases in blood cholesterol levels. These could cancel out the favourable trends in salt intake, smoking and physical activity.

In metabolic diseases such as Type 2 Diabetes and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, the systemic regulation of postprandial metabolite concentrations is disturbed. To understand this dysregulation, a quantitative and temporal understanding of systemic postprandial metabolite handling is needed. Of particular interest is the intertwined regulation of glucose and non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), due to the association between disturbed NEFA metabolism and insulin resistance. However, postprandial glucose metabolism is characterized by a dynamic interplay of simultaneously responding regulatory mechanisms, which have proven difficult to measure directly. Therefore, we propose a mathematical modelling approach to untangle the systemic interplay between glucose and NEFA in the postprandial period. The developed model integrates data of both the perturbation of glucose metabolism by NEFA as measured under clamp conditions, and postprandial time-series of glucose, insulin, and NEFA. The model can describe independent data not used for fitting, and perturbations of NEFA metabolism result in an increased insulin, but not glucose, response, demonstrating that glucose homeostasis is maintained. Finally, the model is used to show that NEFA may mediate up to 30-45% of the postprandial increase in insulin-dependent glucose uptake at two hours after a glucose meal. In conclusion, the presented model can quantify the systemic interactions of glucose and NEFA in the postprandial state, and may therefore provide a new method to evaluate the disturbance of this interplay in metabolic disease.

The first objective was to investigate if intracellular and extracellular levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) within the mouse aorta increase before or after diet-induced lesion formation. The second objective was to investigate if intracellular and extracellular ROS correlates to cell composition in atherosclerotic lesions. The third objective was to investigate if intracellular and extracellular ROS levels within established atherosclerotic lesions can be reduced by lipid lowering by diet or atorvastatin.To address our objectives, we established a new imaging technique to visualize and quantify intracellular and extracellular ROS levels within intact mouse aortas ex vivo. Using this technique, we found that intracellular, but not extracellular, ROS levels increased prior to lesion formation in mouse aortas. Both intracellular and extracellular ROS levels were increased in advanced lesions. Intracellular ROS correlated with lesion content of macrophages. Extracellular ROS correlated with lesion content of smooth muscle cells. The high levels of ROS in advanced lesions were reduced by 5 days high dose atorvastatin treatment but not by lipid lowering by diet. Atorvastatin treatment did not affect lesion inflammation (aortic arch mRNA levels of CXCL 1, ICAM-1, MCP-1, TNF-α, VCAM, IL-6, and IL-1β) or cellular composition (smooth muscle cell, macrophage, and T-cell content).Aortic levels of intracellular ROS increase prior to lesion formation and may be important in initiation of atherosclerosis. Our results suggest that within lesions, macrophages produce mainly intracellular ROS whereas smooth muscle cells produce extracellular ROS. Short term atorvastatin treatment, but not lipid lowering by diet, decreases ROS levels within established advanced lesions; this may help explain the lesion stabilizing and anti-inflammatory effects of long term statin treatment.

Mathematical models may help the analysis of biological systems by providing estimates of otherwise un-measurable quantities such as concentrations and fluxes. The variability in such systems makes it difficult to translate individual characteristics to group behavior. Mixed effects models offer a tool to simultaneously assess individual and population behavior from experimental data. Lipoproteins and plasma lipids are key mediators for cardiovascular disease in metabolic disorders such as diabetes mellitus type 2. By the use of mathematical models and tracer experiments fluxes and production rates of lipoproteins may be estimated.We developed a mixed effects model to study lipoprotein kinetics in a data set of 15 healthy individuals and 15 patients with type 2 diabetes. We compare the traditional and the mixed effects approach in terms of group estimates at various sample and data set sizes.We conclude that the mixed effects approach provided better estimates using the full data set as well as with both sparse and truncated data sets. Sample size estimates showed that to compare lipoprotein secretion the mixed effects approach needed almost half the sample size as the traditional method.

The use of stable isotopes in conjunction with compartmental modeling analysis has greatly facilitated studies of the metabolism of the apolipoprotein B (apoB)-containing lipoproteins in humans. The aim of this study was to develop a multicompartment model that allows us to simultaneously determine the kinetics of apoB and triglyceride (TG) in VLDL1 and VLDL2 after a bolus injection of [2H3]leucine and [2H5]glycerol and to follow the catabolism and transfer of the lipoprotein particles. Here, we describe the model and present the results of its application in a fasting steady-state situation in 17 subjects with lipid values representative of a Western population. Analysis of the correlations showed that plasma TG was determined by the VLDL1 and VLDL2 apoB and TG fractional catabolic rate. Furthermore, the model showed a linear correlation between VLDL1 TG and apoB production. A novel observation was that VLDL TG entered the circulation within 21 min after its synthesis, whereas VLDL apoB entered the circulation after 33 min.These observations are consistent with a sequential assembly model of VLDL and suggest that the TG is added to a primordial apoB-containing particle in the liver.

Dietary medium chain fatty acids (MCFA) and linoleic acid follow different metabolic routes, and linoleic acid activates PPAR receptors. Both these mechanisms may modify lipoprotein and fatty acid metabolism after dietary intervention. Our objective was to investigate how dietary MCFA and linoleic acid supplementation and body fat distribution affect the fasting lipoprotein subclass profile, lipoprotein kinetics, and postprandial fatty acid kinetics. In a randomized double blind cross-over trial, 12 male subjects (age 51±7 years; BMI 28.5±0.8 kg/m2), were divided into 2 groups according to waist-hip ratio. They were supplemented with 60 grams/day MCFA (mainly C8:0, C10:0) or linoleic acid for three weeks, with a wash-out period of six weeks in between. Lipoprotein subclasses were measured using HPLC. Lipoprotein and fatty acid metabolism were studied using a combination of several stable isotope tracers. Lipoprotein and tracer data were analyzed using computational modeling. Lipoprotein subclass concentrations in the VLDL and LDL range were significantly higher after MCFA than after linoleic acid intervention. In addition, LDL subclass concentrations were higher in lower body obese individuals. Differences in VLDL metabolism were found to occur in lipoprotein lipolysis and uptake, not production; MCFAs were elongated intensively, in contrast to linoleic acid. Dietary MCFA supplementation led to a less favorable lipoprotein profile than linoleic acid supplementation. These differences were not due to elevated VLDL production, but rather to lower lipolysis and uptake rates.

ContextNonfasting (postprandial) triglyceride concentrations have emerged as a clinically significant cardiovascular disease risk factor that results from accumulation of remnant triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (TRLs) in the circulation. The remnant TRLs are cleared from the circulation by hepatic uptake, but the specific mechanisms involved are unclear. The syndecan-1 heparan sulfate proteoglycan (HSPG) pathway is important for the hepatic clearance of remnant TRLs in mice, but its relevance in humans is unclear.ObjectiveWe sought to determine whether polymorphisms of the genes responsible for HSPG assembly and disassembly contribute to atherogenic dyslipoproteinemias in humans.Patients and designWe performed an oral fat load in 68 healthy subjects. Lipoproteins (chylomicrons and very low density lipoproteins 1 and 2) were isolated from blood, and the area under curve and incremental area under curve for postprandial variables were calculated. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes encoding syndecan-1 and enzymes involved in the synthesis or degradation of HSPG were genotyped in the study subjects.ResultsOur results indicate that the genetic variation rs2281279 in SULF2 associates with postprandial clearance of remnant TRLs and triglyceride levels in healthy subjects. Furthermore, the SNP rs2281279 in SULF2 associates with hepatic SULF2 mRNA levels.ConclusionsIn humans, mild but clinically relevant postprandial hyperlipidemia due to reduced hepatic clearance of remnant TRLs may result from genetic polymorphisms that affect hepatic HSPG.

Obesity is highly associated with elevated serum triglycerides, hepatic steatosis and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The I148M (rs738409) genetic variant of patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 gene (PNPLA3) is known to modulate hepatic triglyceride accumulation, leading to steatosis. No association between PNPLA3 I148M genotype and T2D in Europeans has been reported. Aim of this study is to examine the relationship between PNPLA3 I148M genotypes and serum triglycerides, insulin resistance and T2D susceptibility by testing a gene-environment interaction model with severe obesity.PNPLA3 I148M was genotyped in a large obese cohort, the SOS study (n = 3,473) and in the Go-DARTS (n = 15,448), a T2D case-control study. Metabolic parameters were examined across the PNPLA3 I148M genotypes in participants of the SOS study at baseline and at 2- and 10-year follow up after bariatric surgery or conventional therapy. The associations with metabolic parameters were validated in the Go-DARTS study. Serum triglycerides were found to be lower in the PNPLA3 148M carriers from the SOS study at baseline and from the Go-DARTS T2D cohort. An increased risk for T2D conferred by the 148M allele was found in the SOS study (O.R. 1.09, 95% C.I. 1.01-1.39, P = 0.040) and in severely obese individuals in the Go-DARTS study (O.R. 1.37, 95% C.I. 1.13-1.66, P = 0.001). The 148M allele was no longer associated with insulin resistance or T2D after bariatric surgery in the SOS study and no association with the 148M allele was observed in the less obese (BMI

The use of computational modeling and simulation has increased in many biological fields, but despite their potential these techniques are only marginally applied in nutritional sciences. Nevertheless, recent applications of modeling have been instrumental in answering important nutritional questions from the cellular up to the physiological levels. Capturing the complexity of today's important nutritional research questions poses a challenge for modeling to become truly integrative in the consideration and interpretation of experimental data at widely differing scales of space and time. In this review, we discuss a selection of available modeling approaches and applications relevant for nutrition. We then put these models into perspective by categorizing them according to their space and time domain. Through this categorization process, we identified a dearth of models that consider processes occurring between the microscopic and macroscopic scale. We propose a "middle-out" strategy to develop the required full-scale, multilevel computational models. Exhaustive and accurate phenotyping, the use of the virtual patient concept, and the development of biomarkers from "-omics" signatures are identified as key elements of a successful systems biology modeling approach in nutrition research--one that integrates physiological mechanisms and data at multiple space and time scales.