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Dry and heat spells have the potential to alter the maize crop’s physiology and ultimately result in low yield. This study proposes a methodology of moving away from the generic dry spell definitions by using the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) output from the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data – AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT-ALERT) as a metric of the impact such events have on the maize crop. We define these objectively identified events as impactful dry spells (IDS). The total exceedance of the maize crop’s upper-temperature optimal threshold is used to capture extreme temperatures during the growing season and is defined as impactful heat spells (IHS). Results of our analysis show that some seasons with relatively low yields were associated with the co-occurrence of severe IDS and IHS events specifically in the establishment and vegetative development phases. This implies that operational drought monitoring models with methodologies similar to that of TAMSAT-ALERT have the potential of inadvertently underestimating yield since they are incapable of incorporating the impact of heat on the crop’s physiology. We also investigate the rainfall characteristics based on the concept of Shannon entropy and show that seasons with relatively high (low) simulated yields are associated with (un)evenly distributed rainfall. Seasons of low simulated yield are shown to be associated with the southward displacement of Tropical Temperate Troughs; an anomalously weak (strong) Angola Low, Mascarene High-Pressure, and St. Helena High-Pressure systems (Mozambique Channel Trough and Botswana High), coupled with regional inhibitive atmospheric conditions for convective cloud development. This is the opposite of atmospheric patterns in seasons with a high simulated yield.

Poster for QSAR on 6/5-6/9/2023 in Copenhagen, Denmark Science Inventory, CCTE products: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25

Presentation to ASCCT on 10/21/2022 in Durham, NC Science Inventory, CCTE products: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25

Presentation to SOT in Nashville, TN on March 19-23, 2023 Science Inventory, CCTE products: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25

Presentation to QSAR in 6/5 - 6/9/2023 in Copenhagen, Denmark Science Inventory, CCTE products: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25

Presentation to QSAR on June 5-9, 2023 in Copenhagen, Denmark Science Inventory, CCTE products: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25

Presentation to QSAR on 6/5 - 6/9 in Copenhagen, Denmark Science Inventory, CCTE products: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25

Poster to SOT on Mar. 19-23 in Nashville TN Science Inventory, CCTE products: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_search_results.cfm?advSearch=true&showCriteria=2&keyword=CCTE&TIMSType=&TIMSSubTypeID=&epaNumber=&ombCat=Any&dateBeginPublishedPresented=07/01/2017&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&DEID=&personName=&personID=&role=Any&journalName=&journalID=&publisherName=&publisherID=&sortBy=pubDate&count=25