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Abstract Background Lithium (Li) remains the treatment of choice for bipolar disorders (BP). Its mood-stabilizing effects help reduce the long-term burden of mania, depression and suicide risk in patients with BP. It also has been shown to have beneficial effects on disease-associated conditions, including sleep and cardiovascular disorders. However, the individual responses to Li treatment vary within and between diagnostic subtypes of BP (e.g. BP-I and BP-II) according to the clinical presentation. Moreover, long-term Li treatment has been linked to adverse side-effects that are a cause of concern and non-adherence, including the risk of developing chronic medical conditions such as thyroid and renal disease. In recent years, studies by the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) have uncovered a number of genetic factors that contribute to the variability in Li treatment response in patients with BP. Here, we leveraged the ConLiGen cohort (N = 2064) to investigate the genetic basis of Li effects in BP. For this, we studied how Li response and linked genes associate with the psychiatric symptoms and polygenic load for medical comorbidities, placing particular emphasis on identifying differences between BP-I and BP-II. Results We found that clinical response to Li treatment, measured with the Alda scale, was associated with a diminished burden of mania, depression, substance and alcohol abuse, psychosis and suicidal ideation in patients with BP-I and, in patients with BP-II, of depression only. Our genetic analyses showed that a stronger clinical response to Li was modestly related to lower polygenic load for diabetes and hypertension in BP-I but not BP-II. Moreover, our results suggested that a number of genes that have been previously linked to Li response variability in BP differentially relate to the psychiatric symptomatology, particularly to the numbers of manic and depressive episodes, and to the polygenic load for comorbid conditions, including diabetes, hypertension and hypothyroidism. Conclusions Taken together, our findings suggest that the effects of Li on symptomatology and comorbidity in BP are partially modulated by common genetic factors, with differential effects between BP-I and BP-II.

Summary: Background: Bipolar disorder (BD) is a multifactorial psychiatric illness affecting ∼1% of the global adult population. Lithium (Li), is the most effective mood stabilizer for BD but works only for a subset of patients and its mechanism of action remains largely elusive. Methods: In the present study, we used iPSC-derived neurons from patients with BD who are responsive (LR) or not (LNR) to lithium. Combined electrophysiology, calcium imaging, biochemistry, transcriptomics, and phosphoproteomics were employed to provide mechanistic insights into neuronal hyperactivity in BD, investigate Li's mode of action, and identify alternative treatment strategies. Findings: We show a selective rescue of the neuronal hyperactivity phenotype by Li in LR neurons, correlated with changes to Na+ conductance. Whole transcriptome sequencing in BD neurons revealed altered gene expression pathways related to glutamate transmission, alterations in cell signalling and ion transport/channel activity. We found altered Akt signalling as a potential therapeutic effect of Li in LR neurons from patients with BD, and that Akt activation mimics Li effect in LR neurons. Furthermore, the increased neural network activity observed in both LR & LNR neurons from patients with BD were reversed by AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) activation. Interpretation: These results suggest potential for new treatment strategies in BD, such as Akt activators in LR cases, and the use of AMPK activators for LNR patients with BD. Funding: Supported by funding from ERA PerMed, Bell Brain Canada Mental Research Program and Brain & Behavior Research Foundation.

Abstract Lithium is the gold standard treatment for bipolar disorder (BD). However, its mechanism of action is incompletely understood, and prediction of treatment outcomes is limited. In our previous multi-omics study of the Pharmacogenomics of Bipolar Disorder (PGBD) sample combining transcriptomic and genomic data, we found that focal adhesion, the extracellular matrix (ECM), and PI3K-Akt signaling networks were associated with response to lithium. In this study, we replicated the results of our previous study using network propagation methods in a genome-wide association study of an independent sample of 2039 patients from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) study. We identified functional enrichment in focal adhesion and PI3K-Akt pathways, but we did not find an association with the ECM pathway. Our results suggest that deficits in the neuronal growth cone and PI3K-Akt signaling, but not in ECM proteins, may influence response to lithium in BD.

Abstract Background Social anxiety disorder increases the likelihood of unfavourable outcomes in people with bipolar disorder. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is the first-line treatment for social anxiety disorder. However, people with bipolar disorder have been excluded from the studies that this recommendation is based on. Method We completed a case series to obtain initial data on whether CBT is an acceptable, safe, and effective treatment for social anxiety disorder in people with bipolar disorder. Results Eleven euthymic participants with bipolar disorder attended up to sixteen treatment and three follow-up sessions of CBT for social anxiety disorder. Participants attended on average 95% of the offered CBT sessions. No adverse events were reported. Participants’ mean score on the Social Phobia Inventory decreased from 46.5 (SD 6.6) before the treatment to 19.8 (SD 11.9) at the end of the sixteen-session intervention and further to 15.8 (SD 10.3) by the end of the 3-month follow-up. This degree of improvement is equivalent to the effect observed in studies of CBT for social anxiety disorder in people without severe mental illness. Conclusions This case series provides preliminary evidence that CBT is acceptable, safe, and effective for treating social anxiety disorder in people with bipolar disorder during euthymia. A randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm these findings, and to establish whether treatment for social anxiety disorder improves the course of bipolar disorder.

Deficits in memory performance have been linked to a wide range of neurological and neuropsychiatric conditions. While many studies have assessed the memory impacts of individual conditions, this study considers a broader perspective by evaluating how memory recall is differentially associated with nine common neuropsychiatric conditions using data drawn from 55 international studies, aggregating 15,883 unique participants aged 15–90. The effects of dementia, mild cognitive impairment, Parkinson’s disease, traumatic brain injury, stroke, depression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder on immediate, short-, and long-delay verbal learning and memory (VLM) scores were estimated relative to matched healthy individuals. Random forest models identified age, years of education, and site as important VLM covariates. A Bayesian harmonization approach was used to isolate and remove site effects. Regression estimated the adjusted association of each clinical group with VLM scores. Memory deficits were strongly associated with dementia and schizophrenia (p < 0.001), while neither depression nor ADHD showed consistent associations with VLM scores (p > 0.05). Differences associated with clinical conditions were larger for longer delayed recall duration items. By comparing VLM across clinical conditions, this study provides a foundation for enhanced diagnostic precision and offers new insights into disease management of comorbid disorders.

Abstract Background The distinction between bipolar I and bipolar II disorder and its treatment implications have been a matter of ongoing debate. The aim of this study was to examine differences between patients with bipolar I and II disorders with particular emphasis on the early phases of the disorders. Methods 808 subjects diagnosed with bipolar I (N = 587) or bipolar II disorder (N = 221) according to DSM-IV criteria were recruited between April 1994 and March 2022 from tertiary-level mood disorder clinics. Sociodemographic and clinical variables concerning psychiatric and medical comorbidities, family history, illness course, suicidal behavior, and response to treatment were compared between the bipolar disorder types. Results Bipolar II disorder patients were more frequently women, older, married or widowed. Bipolar II disorder was associated with later “bipolar” presentation, higher age at first (hypo)mania and treatment, less frequent referral after a single episode, and more episodes before lithium treatment. A higher proportion of first-degree relatives of bipolar II patients were affected by major depression and anxiety disorders. The course of bipolar II disorder was typically characterized by depressive onset, early depressive episodes, multiple depressive recurrences, and depressive predominant polarity; less often by (hypo)mania or (hypo)mania-depression cycles at onset or during the early course. The lifetime clinical course was more frequently rated as chronic fluctuating than episodic. More patients with bipolar II disorder had a history of rapid cycling and/or high number of episodes. Mood stabilizers and antipsychotics were prescribed less frequently during the early course of bipolar II disorder, while antidepressants were more common. We found no differences in global functioning, lifetime suicide attempts, family history of suicide, age at onset of mood disorders and depressive episodes, and lithium response. Conclusions Differences between bipolar I and II disorders are not limited to the severity of (hypo)manic syndromes but include patterns of clinical course and family history. Caution in the use of potentially mood-destabilizing agents is warranted during the early course of bipolar II disorder.

Abstract Background Sunlight contains ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation that triggers the production of vitamin D by skin. Vitamin D has widespread effects on brain function in both developing and adult brains. However, many people live at latitudes (about > 40 N or S) that do not receive enough UVB in winter to produce vitamin D. This exploratory study investigated the association between the age of onset of bipolar I disorder and the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production in a large global sample. Methods Data for 6972 patients with bipolar I disorder were obtained at 75 collection sites in 41 countries in both hemispheres. The best model to assess the relation between the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production and age of onset included 1 or more months below the threshold, family history of mood disorders, and birth cohort. All coefficients estimated at P ≤ 0.001. Results The 6972 patients had an onset in 582 locations in 70 countries, with a mean age of onset of 25.6 years. Of the onset locations, 34.0% had at least 1 month below the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production. The age of onset at locations with 1 or more months of less than or equal to the threshold for UVB was 1.66 years younger. Conclusion UVB and vitamin D may have an important influence on the development of bipolar disorder. Study limitations included a lack of data on patient vitamin D levels, lifestyles, or supplement use. More study of the impacts of UVB and vitamin D in bipolar disorder is needed to evaluate this supposition.

Abstract Background Several studies have reported on the feasibility of electronic (e-)monitoring using computers or smartphones in patients with mental disorders, including bipolar disorder (BD). While studies on e-monitoring have examined the role of demographic factors, such as age, gender, or socioeconomic status and use of health apps, to our knowledge, no study has examined clinical characteristics that might impact adherence with e-monitoring in patients with BD. We analyzed adherence to e-monitoring in patients with BD who participated in an ongoing e-monitoring study and evaluated whether demographic and clinical factors would predict adherence. Methods Eighty-seven participants with BD in different phases of the illness were included. Patterns of adherence for wearable use, daily and weekly self-rating scales over 15 months were analyzed to identify adherence trajectories using growth mixture models (GMM). Multinomial logistic regression models were fitted to compute the effects of predictors on GMM classes. Results Overall adherence rates were 79.5% for the wearable; 78.5% for weekly self-ratings; and 74.6% for daily self-ratings. GMM identified three latent class subgroups: participants with (i) perfect; (ii) good; and (iii) poor adherence. On average, 34.4% of participants showed “perfect” adherence; 37.1% showed “good” adherence; and 28.2% showed poor adherence to all three measures. Women, participants with a history of suicide attempt, and those with a history of inpatient admission were more likely to belong to the group with perfect adherence. Conclusions Participants with higher illness burden (e.g., history of admission to hospital, history of suicide attempts) have higher adherence rates to e-monitoring. They might see e-monitoring as a tool for better documenting symptom change and better managing their illness, thus motivating their engagement.

Abstract Background Lithium is the gold standard prophylactic treatment for bipolar disorder. Most clinical practice guidelines recommend regular calcium assessments as part of monitoring lithium treatment, but easy-to-implement specific management strategies in the event of abnormal calcium levels are lacking. Methods Based on a narrative review of the effects of lithium on calcium and parathyroid hormone (PTH) homeostasis and its clinical implications, experts developed a step-by-step algorithm to guide the initial management of emergent hypercalcemia during lithium treatment. Results In the event of albumin-corrected plasma calcium levels above the upper limit, PTH and calcium levels should be measured after two weeks. Measurement of PTH and calcium levels should preferably be repeated after one month in case of normal or high PTH level, and after one week in case of low PTH level, independently of calcium levels. Calcium levels above 2.8 mmol/l may require a more acute approach. If PTH and calcium levels are normalized, repeated measurements are suggested after six months. In case of persistent PTH and calcium abnormalities, referral to an endocrinologist is suggested since further examination may be needed. Conclusions Standardized consensus driven management may diminish the potential risk of clinicians avoiding the use of lithium because of uncertainties about managing side-effects and consequently hindering some patients from receiving an optimal treatment.

Abstract Bipolar disorder (BD) is a mood disorder involving recurring (hypo)manic and depressive episodes. The inherently temporal nature of BD has inspired its conceptualization using dynamical systems theory, which is a mathematical framework for understanding systems that evolve over time. In this paper, we provide a critical review of the dynamical systems models of BD. Owing to the heterogeneity of methodological and experimental designs in computational modeling, we designed a structured approach that parallels the appraisal of animal models by their face, predictive, and construct validity. This tool, the validity appraisal guide for computational models (VAG-CM), is not an absolute measure of validity, but rather a guide for a more objective appraisal of models in this review. We identified 26 studies published before November 18, 2021 that proposed generative dynamical systems models of time-varying signals in BD. Two raters independently applied the VAG-CM to the included studies, obtaining a mean Cohen’s κ of 0.55 (95% CI [0.45, 0.64]) prior to establishing consensus ratings. Consensus VAG-CM ratings revealed three model/study clusters: data-driven models with face validity, theory-driven models with predictive validity, and theory-driven models lacking all forms of validity. We conclude that future modeling studies should employ a hybrid approach that first operationalizes BD features of interest using empirical data to achieve face validity, followed by explanations of those features using generative models with components that are homologous to physiological or psychological systems involved in BD, to achieve construct validity. Such models would be best developed alongside long-term prospective cohort studies involving a collection of multimodal time-series data. We also encourage future studies to extend, modify, and evaluate the VAG-CM approach for a wider breadth of computational modeling studies and psychiatric disorders.

Abstract Background Predictive models for mental disorders or behaviors (e.g., suicide) have been successfully developed at the level of populations, yet current demographic and clinical variables are neither sensitive nor specific enough for making individual clinical predictions. Forecasting episodes of illness is particularly relevant in bipolar disorder (BD), a mood disorder with high recurrence, disability, and suicide rates. Thus, to understand the dynamic changes involved in episode generation in BD, we propose to extract and interpret individual illness trajectories and patterns suggestive of relapse using passive sensing, nonlinear techniques, and deep anomaly detection. Here we describe the study we have designed to test this hypothesis and the rationale for its design. Method This is a protocol for a contactless cohort study in 200 adult BD patients. Participants will be followed for up to 2 years during which they will be monitored continuously using passive sensing, a wearable that collects multimodal physiological (heart rate variability) and objective (sleep, activity) data. Participants will complete (i) a comprehensive baseline assessment; (ii) weekly assessments; (iii) daily assessments using electronic rating scales. Data will be analyzed using nonlinear techniques and deep anomaly detection to forecast episodes of illness. Discussion This proposed contactless, large cohort study aims to obtain and combine high-dimensional, multimodal physiological, objective, and subjective data. Our work, by conceptualizing mood as a dynamic property of biological systems, will demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating individual variability in a model informing clinical trajectories and predicting relapse in BD.

Abstract Lithium is the gold standard therapy for Bipolar Disorder (BD) but its effectiveness differs widely between individuals. The molecular mechanisms underlying treatment response heterogeneity are not well understood, and personalized treatment in BD remains elusive. Genetic analyses of the lithium treatment response phenotype may generate novel molecular insights into lithium’s therapeutic mechanisms and lead to testable hypotheses to improve BD management and outcomes. We used fixed effect meta-analysis techniques to develop meta-analytic polygenic risk scores (MET-PRS) from combinations of highly correlated psychiatric traits, namely schizophrenia (SCZ), major depression (MD) and bipolar disorder (BD). We compared the effects of cross-disorder MET-PRS and single genetic trait PRS on lithium response. For the PRS analyses, we included clinical data on lithium treatment response and genetic information for n = 2283 BD cases from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen; www.ConLiGen.org ). Higher SCZ and MD PRSs were associated with poorer lithium treatment response whereas BD-PRS had no association with treatment outcome. The combined MET2-PRS comprising of SCZ and MD variants (MET2-PRS) and a model using SCZ and MD-PRS sequentially improved response prediction, compared to single-disorder PRS or to a combined score using all three traits (MET3-PRS). Patients in the highest decile for MET2-PRS loading had 2.5 times higher odds of being classified as poor responders than patients with the lowest decile MET2-PRS scores. An exploratory functional pathway analysis of top MET2-PRS variants was conducted. Findings may inform the development of future testing strategies for personalized lithium prescribing in BD.

Abstract Background Understanding the underlying architecture of mood regulation in bipolar disorder (BD) is important, as we are starting to conceptualize BD as a more complex disorder than one of recurring manic or depressive episodes. Nonlinear techniques are employed to understand and model the behavior of complex systems. Our aim was to assess the underlying nonlinear properties that account for mood and energy fluctuations in patients with BD; and to compare whether these processes were different in healthy controls (HC) and unaffected first-degree relatives (FDR). We used three different nonlinear techniques: Lyapunov exponent, detrended fluctuation analysis and fractal dimension to assess the underlying behavior of mood and energy fluctuations in all groups; and subsequently to assess whether these arise from different processes in each of these groups. Results There was a positive, short-term autocorrelation for both mood and energy series in all three groups. In the mood series, the largest Lyapunov exponent was found in HC (1.84), compared to BD (1.63) and FDR (1.71) groups [F (2, 87) = 8.42, p

Abstract Background Bipolar disorder is associated with circadian disruption and a high risk of suicidal behavior. In a previous exploratory study of patients with bipolar I disorder, we found that a history of suicide attempts was associated with differences between winter and summer levels of solar insolation. The purpose of this study was to confirm this finding using international data from 42% more collection sites and 25% more countries. Methods Data analyzed were from 71 prior and new collection sites in 40 countries at a wide range of latitudes. The analysis included 4876 patients with bipolar I disorder, 45% more data than previously analyzed. Of the patients, 1496 (30.7%) had a history of suicide attempt. Solar insolation data, the amount of the sun’s electromagnetic energy striking the surface of the earth, was obtained for each onset location (479 locations in 64 countries). Results This analysis confirmed the results of the exploratory study with the same best model and slightly better statistical significance. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempts and the ratio of mean winter insolation to mean summer insolation (mean winter insolation/mean summer insolation). This ratio is largest near the equator which has little change in solar insolation over the year, and smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. Other variables in the model associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts were a history of alcohol or substance abuse, female gender, and younger birth cohort. The winter/summer insolation ratio was also replaced with the ratio of minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation to accommodate insolation patterns in the tropics, and nearly identical results were found. All estimated coefficients were significant at p

Abstract Bipolar affective disorder (BD) is a severe psychiatric illness, for which lithium (Li) is the gold standard for acute and maintenance therapies. The therapeutic response to Li in BD is heterogeneous and reliable biomarkers allowing patients stratification are still needed. A GWAS performed by the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) has recently identified genetic markers associated with treatment responses to Li in the human leukocyte antigens (HLA) region. To better understand the molecular mechanisms underlying this association, we have genetically imputed the classical alleles of the HLA region in the European patients of the ConLiGen cohort. We found our best signal for amino-acid variants belonging to the HLA-DRB1*11:01 classical allele, associated with a better response to Li (p

Abstract Predicting lithium response (LiR) in bipolar disorder (BD) may inform treatment planning, but phenotypic heterogeneity complicates discovery of genomic markers. We hypothesized that patients with “exemplary phenotypes”—those whose clinical features are reliably associated with LiR and non-response (LiNR)—are more genetically separable than those with less exemplary phenotypes. Using clinical data collected from people with BD (n = 1266 across 7 centers; 34.7% responders), we computed a “clinical exemplar score,” which measures the degree to which a subject’s clinical phenotype is reliably predictive of LiR/LiNR. For patients whose genotypes were available (n = 321), we evaluated whether a subgroup of responders/non-responders with the top 25% of clinical exemplar scores (the “best clinical exemplars”) were more accurately classified based on genetic data, compared to a subgroup with the lowest 25% of clinical exemplar scores (the “poor clinical exemplars”). On average, the best clinical exemplars of LiR had a later illness onset, completely episodic clinical course, absence of rapid cycling and psychosis, and few psychiatric comorbidities. The best clinical exemplars of LiR and LiNR were genetically separable with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (IQR [0.83, 0.98]), compared to 0.66 [0.61, 0.80] (p = 0.0032) among poor clinical exemplars. Variants in the Alzheimer’s amyloid–secretase pathway, along with G-protein-coupled receptor, muscarinic acetylcholine, and histamine H1R signaling pathways were informative predictors. This study must be replicated on larger samples and extended to predict response to other mood stabilizers.

Abstract Predicting lithium response prior to treatment could both expedite therapy and avoid exposure to side effects. Since lithium responsiveness may be heritable, its predictability based on genomic data is of interest. We thus evaluate the degree to which lithium response can be predicted with a machine learning (ML) approach using genomic data. Using the largest existing genomic dataset in the lithium response literature (n = 2210 across 14 international sites; 29% responders), we evaluated the degree to which lithium response could be predicted based on 47,465 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms using a supervised ML approach. Under appropriate cross-validation procedures, lithium response could be predicted to above-chance levels in two constituent sites (Halifax, Cohen’s kappa 0.15, 95% confidence interval, CI [0.07, 0.24]; and Würzburg, kappa 0.2 [0.1, 0.3]). Variants with shared importance in these models showed over-representation of postsynaptic membrane related genes. Lithium response was not predictable in the pooled dataset (kappa 0.02 [− 0.01, 0.04]), although non-trivial performance was achieved within a restricted dataset including only those patients followed prospectively (kappa 0.09 [0.04, 0.14]). Genomic classification of lithium response remains a promising but difficult task. Classification performance could potentially be improved by further harmonization of data collection procedures.

Abstract Background Lithium has been used clinically for 70 years, mainly to treat bipolar disorder. Competing treatments and exaggerated impressions about complexity and risks of lithium treatment have led to its declining use in some countries, encouraging this update about its safe clinical use. We conducted a nonsystematic review of recent research reports and developed consensus among international experts on the use of lithium to treat major mood disorders, aiming for a simple but authoritative guide for patients and prescribers. Main text We summarized recommendations concerning safe clinical use of lithium salts to treat major mood disorders, including indications, dosing, clinical monitoring, adverse effects and use in specific circumstances including during pregnancy and for the elderly. Conclusions Lithium continues as the standard and most extensively evaluated treatment for bipolar disorder, especially for long-term prophylaxis.

This paper focuses on depression that precedes an onset of manifest bipolar disorder as early stage bipolar disorder. First, we review how to pragmatically identify the clinical characteristics of patients presenting with an episode of depression who subsequently go on to develop episodes of mania or hypomania. The existing literature shows a strong consensus: accurate identification of depression with early onset and recurrent course with multiple episodes, subthreshold hypomanic and/or mixed symptoms, and family history of bipolar disorder or completed suicide have been shown by multiple authors as signs pointing to bipolar diagnosis. This contrasts with relatively limited information available to guide management of such “pre-bipolar” (pre-declared bipolar) patients, especially those in the adult age range. Default assumption of unipolar depression at this stage carries significant risk. Antidepressants are still the most common pharmacological treatment used, but clinicians need to be aware of their potential harm. In some patients with unrecognized bipolar depression, antidepressants can not only produce switch to (hypo)mania, but also mixed symptoms, or worsening of depression with an increased risk of suicide. We review pragmatic management strategies in the literature beyond clinical guidelines that can be considered for this at-risk group encompassing the more recent child and adolescent literature. In the future, genetic research could make the early identification of bipolar depression easier by generating informative markers and polygenic risk scores.

The Alda score is commonly used to quantify lithium responsiveness in bipolar disorder. Most often, this score is dichotomized into "responder" and "non-responder" categories, respectively. This practice is often criticized as inappropriate, since continuous variables are thought to invariably be "more informative" than their dichotomizations. We therefore investigated the degree of informativeness across raw and dichotomized versions of the Alda score, using data from a published study of the scale's inter-rater reliability (n = 59 raters of 12 standardized vignettes each). After learning a generative model for the relationship between observed and ground truth scores (the latter defined by a consensus rating of the 12 vignettes), we show that the dichotomized scale is more robust to inter-rater disagreement than the raw 0-10 scale. Further theoretical analysis shows that when a measure's reliability is stronger at one extreme of the continuum-a scenario which has received little-to-no statistical attention, but which likely occurs for the Alda score ≥ 7-dichotomization of a continuous variable may be more informative concerning its ground truth value, particularly in the presence of noise. Our study suggests that research employing the Alda score of lithium responsiveness should continue using the dichotomous definition, particularly when data are sampled across multiple raters.

Normative modeling is an increasingly popular method for characterizing the ways in which clinical cohorts deviate from a reference population, with respect to one or more biological features. In this paper, we extend the normative modeling framework with an approach for measuring the amount of heterogeneity in a cohort. This heterogeneity measure is based on the Representational Rényi Heterogeneity method, which generalizes diversity measurement paradigms used across multiple scientific disciplines. We propose that heterogeneity in the normative modeling setting can be measured as the effective number of deviation patterns; that is, the effective number of coherent patterns by which a sample of data differ from a distribution of normative variation. We show that lower effective number of deviation patterns is associated with the presence of systematic differences from a (non-degenerate) normative distribution. This finding is shown to be consistent across (A) application of a Gaussian process model to synthetic and real-world neuroimaging data, and (B) application of a variational autoencoder to well-understood database of handwritten images.

Abstract Background The world population is aging and the number of older adults with bipolar disorder is increasing. Digital technologies are viewed as a framework to improve care of older adults with bipolar disorder. This analysis quantifies Internet use by older adults with bipolar disorder as part of a larger survey project about information seeking. Methods A paper-based survey about information seeking by patients with bipolar disorder was developed and translated into 12 languages. The survey was anonymous and completed between March 2014 and January 2016 by 1222 patients in 17 countries. All patients were diagnosed by a psychiatrist. General estimating equations were used to account for correlated data. Results Overall, 47% of older adults (age 60 years or older) used the Internet versus 87% of younger adults (less than 60 years). More education and having symptoms that interfered with regular activities increased the odds of using the Internet, while being age 60 years or older decreased the odds. Data from 187 older adults and 1021 younger adults were included in the analysis excluding missing values. Conclusions Older adults with bipolar disorder use the Internet much less frequently than younger adults. Many older adults do not use the Internet, and technology tools are suitable for some but not all older adults. As more health services are only available online, and more digital tools are developed, there is concern about growing health disparities based on age. Mental health experts should participate in determining the appropriate role for digital tools for older adults with bipolar disorder.

Abstract Background Polypharmacy is often prescribed for bipolar disorder, yet medication non-adherence remains a serious problem. This study investigated the regularity in the daily dosage taken of mood stabilizers and second generation antipsychotics. Methods Daily self-reported data on medications taken and mood were available from 241 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder who received treatment as usual. Patients who took the same mood stabilizer or second generation antipsychotic for ≥ 100 days were included. Approximate entropy was used to determine serial regularity in daily dosage taken. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate if demographic or clinical variables were associated with regularity. Results There were 422 analysis periods available from the 241 patients. Patients took drugs on 84.4% of days. Considerable irregularity was found, mostly due to single-day omissions and dosage changes. Drug holidays (missing 3 or more consecutive days) were found in 35.8% of the analysis periods. Irregularity was associated with an increasing total number of psychotropic drugs taken (p = 0.009), the pill burden (p = 0.026), and the percent of days depressed (p = 0.049). Conclusion Despite low missing percent of days, daily drug dosage may be irregular primarily due to single day omissions and dosage changes. Drug holidays are common. Physicians should expect to see partial adherence in clinical practice, especially with complex drug regimens. Daily dosage irregularity may impact the continuity of drug action, contribute to individual variation in treatment response, and needs further study.

Abstract Background Admixture analysis of age at onset (AAO) has helped delineating the clinical profile of early onset (EO) bipolar disorder (BD). However, there is scarce evidence comparing the distributional properties of AAO as well as the clinical features of EO BD type 1 (BD1) with EO BD type 2 (BD2). To this end, we studied 515 BD patients (224 BD1, 279 BD2, and 12 BD not otherwise specified [NOS]) diagnosed according to DSM-IV-TR criteria. Methods AAO was defined as the first reliably diagnosed hypo/manic or depressive episode according to diagnostic criteria. We used normal distribution mixture analysis to identify subgroups of patients according to AAO. Models were chosen according to the Schwarz’s Bayesian information criteria (BIC). Clinical correlates of EO were analysed using univariate tests and multivariate logistic regression models. Results A two normal components model best fitted the observed distribution of AAO in BD1 (BIC = −1599.3), BD2 (BIC = −2158.4), and in the whole sample (BIC = −3854.9). A higher number of EO BD2 patients had a depression-(hypo)mania-free interval (DMI) course, while a higher rate of (hypo)mania-depression-free interval (MDI) course was found in EO BD1. EO BD2 had also a higher rate of comorbidity with alcohol dependence compared to EO BD1. The latter finding was confirmed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Conclusions In conclusion, both BD1 and BD2 had bimodal AAO distributions, but EO subgroups had a diagnostic-specific clinical delineation.

Abstract Background Concerns about potential adverse effects of long-term exposure to lithium as a mood-stabilizing treatment notably include altered renal function. However, the incidence of severe renal dysfunction; rate of decline over time; effects of lithium dose, serum concentration, and duration of treatment; relative effects of lithium exposure vs. aging; and contributions of sex and other factors all remain unclear. Methods Accordingly, we acquired data from 12 collaborating international sites and 312 bipolar disorder patients (6142 person-years, 2669 assays) treated with lithium carbonate for 8–48 (mean 18) years and aged 20–89 (mean 56) years. We evaluated changes of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as well as serum creatinine, urea–nitrogen, and glucose concentrations, white blood cell count, and body-mass index, and tested associations of eGFR with selected factors, using standard bivariate contrasts and regression modeling. Results Overall, 29.5% of subjects experienced at least one low value of eGFR ( 55; risk of ≥2 low values was 18.1%; none experienced end-stage renal failure. eGFR declined by 0.71%/year of age and 0.92%/year of treatment, both by 19% more among women than men. Mean serum creatinine increased from 0.87 to 1.17 mg/dL, BUN from 23.7 to 33.1 mg/dL, glucose from 88 to 122 mg/dL, and BMI from 25.9 to 26.6 kg/m2. By multivariate regression, risk factors for declining eGFR ranked: longer lithium treatment, lower lithium dose, higher serum lithium concentration, older age, and medical comorbidity. Later low eGFR was also predicted by lower initial eGFR, and starting lithium at age ≥ 40 years. Limitations Control data for age-matched subjects not exposed to lithium were lacking. Conclusions Long-term lithium treatment was associated with gradual decline of renal functioning (eGFR) by about 30% more than that was associated with aging alone. Risk of subnormal eGFR was from 18.1% (≥2 low values) to 29.5% (≥1 low value), requiring about 30 years of exposure. Additional risk factors for low eGFR were higher serum lithium level, longer lithium treatment, lower initial eGFR, and medical comorbidity, as well as older age.

BackgroundBasic symptoms, defined as subjectively perceived disturbances in thought, perception and other essential mental processes, have been established as a predictor of psychotic disorders. However, the relationship between basic symptoms and family history of a transdiagnostic range of severe mental illness, including major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, has not been examined.AimsWe sought to test whether non-severe mood disorders and severe mood and psychotic disorders in parents is associated with increased basic symptoms in their biological offspring.MethodWe measured basic symptoms using the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument – Child and Youth Version in 332 youth aged 8–26 years, including 93 offspring of control parents, 92 offspring of a parent with non-severe mood disorders, and 147 offspring of a parent with severe mood and psychotic disorders. We tested the relationships between parent mental illness and offspring basic symptoms in mixed-effects linear regression models.ResultsOffspring of a parent with severe mood and psychotic disorders (B = 0.69, 95% CI 0.22–1.16, P = 0.004) or illness with psychotic features (B = 0.68, 95% CI 0.09–1.27, P = 0.023) had significantly higher basic symptom scores than control offspring. Offspring of a parent with non-severe mood disorders reported intermediate levels of basic symptoms, that did not significantly differ from control offspring.ConclusionsBasic symptoms during childhood are a marker of familial risk of psychopathology that is related to severity and is not specific to psychotic illness.Declaration of interestNone.

Background: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and bipolar disorder (BIP) are complex traits influenced by numerous common genetic variants, most of which remain to be detected. Clinical and epidemiological evidence suggest that AD and BIP are related. However, it is not established if this relation is of genetic origin. Here, we applied statistical methods based on the conditional false discovery rate (FDR) framework to detect genetic overlap between AD and BIP and utilized this overlap to increase the power to identify common genetic variants associated with either or both traits.Methods: We obtained genome wide association studies data from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project part 1 (17,008 AD cases and 37,154 controls) and the Psychiatric Genetic Consortium Bipolar Disorder Working Group (20,352 BIP cases and 31,358 controls). We used conditional QQ-plots to assess overlap in common genetic variants between AD and BIP. We exploited the genetic overlap to re-rank test-statistics for AD and BIP and improve detection of genetic variants using the conditional FDR framework.Results: Conditional QQ-plots demonstrated a polygenic overlap between AD and BIP. Using conditional FDR, we identified one novel genomic locus associated with AD, and nine novel loci associated with BIP. Further, we identified two novel loci jointly associated with AD and BIP implicating the MARK2 gene (lead SNP rs10792421, conjunctional FDR = 0.030, same direction of effect) and the VAC14 gene (lead SNP rs11649476, conjunctional FDR = 0.022, opposite direction of effect).Conclusion: We found polygenic overlap between AD and BIP and identified novel loci for each trait and two jointly associated loci. Further studies should examine if the shared loci implicating the MARK2 and VAC14 genes could explain parts of the shared and distinct features of AD and BIP.

A system’s heterogeneity (diversity) is the effective size of its event space, and can be quantified using the Rényi family of indices (also known as Hill numbers in ecology or Hannah–Kay indices in economics), which are indexed by an elasticity parameter q≥0. Under these indices, the heterogeneity of a composite system (the γ-heterogeneity) is decomposable into heterogeneity arising from variation within and between component subsystems (the α- and β-heterogeneity, respectively). Since the average heterogeneity of a component subsystem should not be greater than that of the pooled system, we require that γ≥α. There exists a multiplicative decomposition for Rényi heterogeneity of composite systems with discrete event spaces, but less attention has been paid to decomposition in the continuous setting. We therefore describe multiplicative decomposition of the Rényi heterogeneity for continuous mixture distributions under parametric and non-parametric pooling assumptions. Under non-parametric pooling, the γ-heterogeneity must often be estimated numerically, but the multiplicative decomposition holds such that γ≥α for q>0. Conversely, under parametric pooling, γ-heterogeneity can be computed efficiently in closed-form, but the γ≥α condition holds reliably only at q=1. Our findings will further contribute to heterogeneity measurement in continuous systems.

A discrete system’s heterogeneity is measured by the Rényi heterogeneity family of indices (also known as Hill numbers or Hannah–Kay indices), whose units are the numbers equivalent. Unfortunately, numbers equivalent heterogeneity measures for non-categorical data require a priori (A) categorical partitioning and (B) pairwise distance measurement on the observable data space, thereby precluding application to problems with ill-defined categories or where semantically relevant features must be learned as abstractions from some data. We thus introduce representational Rényi heterogeneity (RRH), which transforms an observable domain onto a latent space upon which the Rényi heterogeneity is both tractable and semantically relevant. This method requires neither a priori binning nor definition of a distance function on the observable space. We show that RRH can generalize existing biodiversity and economic equality indices. Compared with existing indices on a beta-mixture distribution, we show that RRH responds more appropriately to changes in mixture component separation and weighting. Finally, we demonstrate the measurement of RRH in a set of natural images, with respect to abstract representations learned by a deep neural network. The RRH approach will further enable heterogeneity measurement in disciplines whose data do not easily conform to the assumptions of existing indices.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a common, highly heritable neuropsychiatric disease characterized by recurrent episodes of mania and depression. Lithium is the best-established long-term treatment for BD, even though individual response is highly variable. Evidence suggests that some of this variability has a genetic basis. This is supported by the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of lithium response to date conducted by the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen). Recently, we performed the first genome-wide analysis of the involvement of miRNAs in BD and identified nine BD-associated miRNAs. However, it is unknown whether these miRNAs are also associated with lithium response in BD. In the present study, we therefore tested whether common variants at these nine candidate miRNAs contribute to the variance in lithium response in BD. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed whether any other miRNA in the genome is implicated in the response to lithium. For this purpose, we performed gene-based tests for all known miRNA coding genes in the ConLiGen GWAS dataset (n = 2,563 patients) using a set-based testing approach adapted from the versatile gene-based test for GWAS (VEGAS2). In the candidate approach, miR-499a showed a nominally significant association with lithium response, providing some evidence for involvement in both development and treatment of BD. In the genome-wide miRNA analysis, 71 miRNAs showed nominally significant associations with the dichotomous phenotype and 106 with the continuous trait for treatment response. A total of 15 miRNAs revealed nominal significance in both phenotypes with miR-633 showing the strongest association with the continuous trait (p = 9.80E-04) and miR-607 with the dichotomous phenotype (p = 5.79E-04). No association between miRNAs and treatment response to lithium in BD in either of the tested conditions withstood multiple testing correction. Given the limited power of our study, the investigation of miRNAs in larger GWAS samples of BD and lithium response is warranted.