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We present the first study of the Public Register of Licensed Persons and Registered Institutions maintained by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) through the lens of complex network analysis. This dataset, spanning 21 years with daily granularity, provides a unique view of the evolving social network between licensed professionals and their affiliated firms in Hong Kong's financial sector. Leveraging large language models, we classify firms (e.g., asset managers, banks) and infer the likely nationality and gender of employees based on their names. This application enhances the dataset by adding rich demographic and organizational context, enabling more precise network analysis. Our preliminary findings reveal key structural features, offering new insights into the dynamics of Hong Kong's financial landscape. We release the structured dataset to enable further research, establishing a foundation for future studies that may inform recruitment strategies, policy-making, and risk management in the financial industry., Comment: Complex Networks 2024

Enriching datasets with demographic information, such as gender, race, and age from names, is a critical task in fields like healthcare, public policy, and social sciences. Such demographic insights allow for more precise and effective engagement with target populations. Despite previous efforts employing hidden Markov models and recurrent neural networks to predict demographics from names, significant limitations persist: the lack of large-scale, well-curated, unbiased, publicly available datasets, and the lack of an approach robust across datasets. This scarcity has hindered the development of traditional supervised learning approaches. In this paper, we demonstrate that the zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) can perform as well as, if not better than, bespoke models trained on specialized data. We apply these LLMs to a variety of datasets, including a real-life, unlabelled dataset of licensed financial professionals in Hong Kong, and critically assess the inherent demographic biases in these models. Our work not only advances the state-of-the-art in demographic enrichment but also opens avenues for future research in mitigating biases in LLMs., Comment: 8 pages, 7 Tables, 5 Figures

We propose a methodology to approximate conditional distributions in the elliptope of correlation matrices based on conditional generative adversarial networks. We illustrate the methodology with an application from quantitative finance: Monte Carlo simulations of correlated returns to compare risk-based portfolio construction methods. Finally, we discuss about current limitations and advocate for further exploration of the elliptope geometry to improve results., Comment: International Conference on Geometric Science of Information

Social distancing and stay-at-home are among the few measures that are known to be effective in checking the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 in a given population. The patterns of dependency between such measures and their effects on disease incidence may vary dynamically and across different populations. We described a new computational framework to measure and compare the temporal relationships between human mobility and new cases of COVID-19 across more than 150 cities of the United States with relatively high incidence of the disease. We used a novel application of Optimal Transport for computing the distance between the normalized patterns induced by bivariate time series for each pair of cities. Thus, we identified 10 clusters of cities with similar temporal dependencies, and computed the Wasserstein barycenter to describe the overall dynamic pattern for each cluster. Finally, we used city-specific socioeconomic covariates to analyze the composition of each cluster., Comment: 16 pages

We propose a novel approach for sampling realistic financial correlation matrices. This approach is based on generative adversarial networks. Experiments demonstrate that generative adversarial networks are able to recover most of the known stylized facts about empirical correlation matrices estimated on asset returns. This is the first time such results are documented in the literature. Practical financial applications range from trading strategies enhancement to risk and portfolio stress testing. Such generative models can also help ground empirical finance deeper into science by allowing for falsifiability of statements and more objective comparison of empirical methods.

Information distribution by electronic messages is a privileged means of transmission for many businesses and individuals, often under the form of plain-text tables. As their number grows, it becomes necessary to use an algorithm to extract text and numbers instead of a human. Usual methods are focused on regular expressions or on a strict structure in the data, but are not efficient when we have many variations, fuzzy structure or implicit labels. In this paper we introduce SC2T, a totally self-supervised model for constructing vector representations of tokens in semi-structured messages by using characters and context levels that address these issues. It can then be used for an unsupervised labeling of tokens, or be the basis for a semi-supervised information extraction system.

We propose Significance-Offset Convolutional Neural Network, a deep convolutional network architecture for regression of multivariate asynchronous time series. The model is inspired by standard autoregressive (AR) models and gating mechanisms used in recurrent neural networks. It involves an AR-like weighting system, where the final predictor is obtained as a weighted sum of adjusted regressors, while the weights are datadependent functions learnt through a convolutional network. The architecture was designed for applications on asynchronous time series and is evaluated on such datasets: a hedge fund proprietary dataset of over 2 million quotes for a credit derivative index, an artificially generated noisy autoregressive series and UCI household electricity consumption dataset. The proposed architecture achieves promising results as compared to convolutional and recurrent neural networks., Comment: Proceedings of The 35th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), Stockholm, Sweden, 2018, to appear

We review the state of the art of clustering financial time series and the study of their correlations alongside other interaction networks. The aim of this review is to gather in one place the relevant material from different fields, e.g. machine learning, information geometry, econophysics, statistical physics, econometrics, behavioral finance. We hope it will help researchers to use more effectively this alternative modeling of the financial time series. Decision makers and quantitative researchers may also be able to leverage its insights. Finally, we also hope that this review will form the basis of an open toolbox to study correlations, hierarchies, networks and clustering in financial markets.

We propose a methodology to explore and measure the pairwise correlations that exist between variables in a dataset. The methodology leverages copulas for encoding dependence between two variables, state-of-the-art optimal transport for providing a relevant geometry to the copulas, and clustering for summarizing the main dependence patterns found between the variables. Some of the clusters centers can be used to parameterize a novel dependence coefficient which can target or forget specific dependence patterns. Finally, we illustrate and benchmark the methodology on several datasets. Code and numerical experiments are available online for reproducible research.

We present a methodology for clustering N objects which are described by multivariate time series, i.e. several sequences of real-valued random variables. This clustering methodology leverages copulas which are distributions encoding the dependence structure between several random variables. To take fully into account the dependence information while clustering, we need a distance between copulas. In this work, we compare renowned distances between distributions: the Fisher-Rao geodesic distance, related divergences and optimal transport, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. Applications of such methodology can be found in the clustering of financial assets. A tutorial, experiments and implementation for reproducible research can be found at www.datagrapple.com/Tech., Comment: Accepted at IEEE Workshop on Statistical Signal Processing (SSP 2016)

The following working document summarizes our work on the clustering of financial time series. It was written for a workshop on information geometry and its application for image and signal processing. This workshop brought several experts in pure and applied mathematics together with applied researchers from medical imaging, radar signal processing and finance. The authors belong to the latter group. This document was written as a long introduction to further development of geometric tools in financial applications such as risk or portfolio analysis. Indeed, risk and portfolio analysis essentially rely on covariance matrices. Besides that the Gaussian assumption is known to be inaccurate, covariance matrices are difficult to estimate from empirical data. To filter noise from the empirical estimate, Mantegna proposed using hierarchical clustering. In this work, we first show that this procedure is statistically consistent. Then, we propose to use clustering with a much broader application than the filtering of empirical covariance matrices from the estimate correlation coefficients. To be able to do that, we need to obtain distances between the financial time series that incorporate all the available information in these cross-dependent random processes., Comment: Work presented during a workshop on Information Geometry at the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK

Researchers have used from 30 days to several years of daily returns as source data for clustering financial time series based on their correlations. This paper sets up a statistical framework to study the validity of such practices. We first show that clustering correlated random variables from their observed values is statistically consistent. Then, we also give a first empirical answer to the much debated question: How long should the time series be? If too short, the clusters found can be spurious; if too long, dynamics can be smoothed out., Comment: Accepted at IJCAI 2016

This paper presents a new methodology for clustering multivariate time series leveraging optimal transport between copulas. Copulas are used to encode both (i) intra-dependence of a multivariate time series, and (ii) inter-dependence between two time series. Then, optimal copula transport allows us to define two distances between multivariate time series: (i) one for measuring intra-dependence dissimilarity, (ii) another one for measuring inter-dependence dissimilarity based on a new multivariate dependence coefficient which is robust to noise, deterministic, and which can target specified dependencies., Comment: Accepted at ICASSP 2016

We present in this paper an empirical framework motivated by the practitioner point of view on stability. The goal is to both assess clustering validity and yield market insights by providing through the data perturbations we propose a multi-view of the assets' clustering behaviour. The perturbation framework is illustrated on an extensive credit default swap time series database available online at www.datagrapple.com., Comment: Accepted at ICMLA 2015

We describe a new visualization tool, dubbed HCMapper, that visually helps to compare a pair of dendrograms computed on the same dataset by displaying multiscale partition-based layered structures. The dendrograms are obtained by hierarchical clustering techniques whose output reflects some hypothesis on the data and HCMapper is specifically designed to grasp at first glance both whether the two compared hypotheses broadly agree and the data points on which they do not concur. Leveraging juxtaposition and explicit encodings, HCMapper focus on two selected partitions while displaying coarser ones in context areas for understanding multiscale structure and eventually switching the selected partitions. HCMapper utility is shown through the example of testing whether the prices of credit default swap financial time series only undergo correlation. This use case is detailed in the supplementary material as well as experiments with code on toy-datasets for reproducible research. HCMapper is currently released as a visualization tool on the DataGrapple time series and clustering analysis platorm at www.datagrapple.com.

We present in this paper a novel non-parametric approach useful for clustering Markov processes. We introduce a pre-processing step consisting in mapping multivariate independent and identically distributed samples from random variables to a generic non-parametric representation which factorizes dependency and marginal distribution apart without losing any. An associated metric is defined where the balance between random variables dependency and distribution information is controlled by a single parameter. This mixing parameter can be learned or played with by a practitioner, such use is illustrated on the case of clustering financial time series. Experiments, implementation and results obtained on public financial time series are online on a web portal \url{http://www.datagrapple.com}., Comment: in French

This paper presents a pre-processing and a distance which improve the performance of machine learning algorithms working on independent and identically distributed stochastic processes. We introduce a novel non-parametric approach to represent random variables which splits apart dependency and distribution without losing any information. We also propound an associated metric leveraging this representation and its statistical estimate. Besides experiments on synthetic datasets, the benefits of our contribution is illustrated through the example of clustering financial time series, for instance prices from the credit default swaps market. Results are available on the website www.datagrapple.com and an IPython Notebook tutorial is available at www.datagrapple.com/Tech for reproducible research., Comment: submitted to Pattern Recognition Letters