14 results on '"Marsham, J.H."'
Search Results
2. Spatial and temporal scaling of sub-daily extreme rainfall for data sparse places
- Author
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Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W., Yu, D., Herring, Z., Baruch, A., Ascott, M.J., Finney, D. L., Macdonald, D.M.J., Marsham, J.H., Matthews, T., Murphy, C., Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W., Yu, D., Herring, Z., Baruch, A., Ascott, M.J., Finney, D. L., Macdonald, D.M.J., Marsham, J.H., Matthews, T., and Murphy, C.
- Abstract
Global efforts to upgrade water, drainage, and sanitation services are hampered by hydrometeorological data-scarcity plus uncertainty about climate change. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) tables are used routinely to design water infrastructure so offer an entry point for adapting engineering standards. This paper begins with a novel procedure for guiding downscaling predictor variable selection for heavy rainfall simulation using media reports of pluvial flooding. We then present a three-step workflow to: (1) spatially downscale daily rainfall from grid-to-point resolutions; (2) temporally scale from daily series to sub-daily extreme rainfalls and; (3) test methods of temporal scaling of extreme rainfalls within Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations under changed climate conditions. Critically, we compare the methods of moments and of parameters for temporal scaling annual maximum series of daily rainfall into sub-daily extreme rainfalls, whilst accounting for rainfall intermittency. The methods are applied to Kampala, Uganda and Kisumu, Kenya using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), two RCM simulations covering East Africa (CP4 and P25), and in hybrid form (RCM-SDSM). We demonstrate that Gumbel parameters (and IDF tables) can be reliably scaled to durations of 3 h within observations and RCMs. Our hybrid RCM-SDSM scaling reduces errors in IDF estimates for the present climate when compared with direct RCM output. Credible parameter scaling relationships are also found within RCM simulations under changed climate conditions. We then discuss the practical aspects of applying such workflows to other city-regions.
- Published
- 2023
3. Interaction of convective organisation with monsoon precipitation, atmosphere, surface and sea: the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign in India
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Turner, A.G., Bhat, G.S., Martin, G.M., Parker, D.J., Taylor, C.M., Mitra, A.K., Tripathi, S.N., Milton, S., Rajagopal, E.N., Evans, J.G., Morrison, R., Pattnaik, S., Sekhar, M., Bhattacharya, B.K., Madan, R., Govindankutty, Mrudula, Fletcher, J.K., Willetts, P.D., Menon, A., Marsham, J.H., Hunt, K.M.R., Chakraborty, T., George, G., Krishnan, M., Sarangi, C., Belusic, D., Garcia‐Carreras, L., Brooks, M., Webster, S., Brooke, J.K., Fox, C., Harlow, R.C., Langridge, J.M., Jayakumar, A., Böing, S.J., Halliday, O., Bowles, J., Kent, J., O'Sullivan, D., Wilson, A., Woods, C., Rogers, S., Smout‐Day, R., Tiddeman, D., Desai, D., Nigam, R., Paleri, S., Sattar, A., Smith, M., Anderson, D., Bauguitte, S., Carling, R., Chan, C., Devereau, S., Gratton, G., MacLeod, D., Nott, G., Pickering, M., Price, H., Rastall, S., Reed, C., Trembath, J., Woolley, A., Volonté, A., New, B., Turner, A.G., Bhat, G.S., Martin, G.M., Parker, D.J., Taylor, C.M., Mitra, A.K., Tripathi, S.N., Milton, S., Rajagopal, E.N., Evans, J.G., Morrison, R., Pattnaik, S., Sekhar, M., Bhattacharya, B.K., Madan, R., Govindankutty, Mrudula, Fletcher, J.K., Willetts, P.D., Menon, A., Marsham, J.H., Hunt, K.M.R., Chakraborty, T., George, G., Krishnan, M., Sarangi, C., Belusic, D., Garcia‐Carreras, L., Brooks, M., Webster, S., Brooke, J.K., Fox, C., Harlow, R.C., Langridge, J.M., Jayakumar, A., Böing, S.J., Halliday, O., Bowles, J., Kent, J., O'Sullivan, D., Wilson, A., Woods, C., Rogers, S., Smout‐Day, R., Tiddeman, D., Desai, D., Nigam, R., Paleri, S., Sattar, A., Smith, M., Anderson, D., Bauguitte, S., Carling, R., Chan, C., Devereau, S., Gratton, G., MacLeod, D., Nott, G., Pickering, M., Price, H., Rastall, S., Reed, C., Trembath, J., Woolley, A., Volonté, A., and New, B.
- Abstract
The INCOMPASS field campaign combines airborne and ground measurements of the 2016 Indian monsoon, towards the ultimate goal of better predicting monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, but forecasting from days to the season ahead is limited by large, rapidly developing errors in model parametrizations. The lack of detailed observations prevents thorough understanding of the monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface: a process governed by boundary‐layer and convective‐cloud dynamics. INCOMPASS used the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe‐146 aircraft for the first project of this scale in India, to accrue almost 100 h of observations in June and July 2016. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains sampled the dramatic contrast in surface and boundary‐layer structures between dry desert air in the west and the humid environment over the northern Bay of Bengal. These flights were repeated in pre‐monsoon and monsoon conditions. Flights from a second base at Bengaluru in southern India measured atmospheric contrasts from the Arabian Sea, over the Western Ghats mountains, to the rain shadow of southeast India and the south Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was aided by forecasts from bespoke 4 km convection‐permitting limited‐area models at the Met Office and India's NCMRWF. On the ground, INCOMPASS installed eddy‐covariance flux towers on a range of surface types, to provide detailed measurements of surface fluxes and their modulation by diurnal and seasonal cycles. These data will be used to better quantify the impacts of the atmosphere on the land surface, and vice versa. INCOMPASS also installed ground instrumentation supersites at Kanpur and Bhubaneswar. Here we motivate and describe the INCOMPASS field campaign. We use examples from two flights to illustrate contrasts in atmospheric structure, in particular the retreating mid‐level dry intrusion during the monsoon onset.
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- 2020
4. The Effects of Tropical Vegetation on Rainfall
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Spracklen, D.V., primary, Baker, J.C.A., additional, Garcia-Carreras, L., additional, and Marsham, J.H., additional
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
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5. The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa
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Knippertz, P., Evans, M.J., Field, P.R., Fink, A.H., Liousse, C., and Marsham, J.H.
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Earth sciences ,ddc:550 - Abstract
The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts.
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- 2015
6. Quantifying global dust devil occurence from meteorological analyses
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Jemmett-Smith, B.C., Marsham, J.H., Knippertz, P., and Gilkeson, C.A.
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Earth sciences ,ddc:550 - Published
- 2015
7. The effect of background wind on mesoscale circulations above variable soil moisture in the Sahel
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Dixon, N.S., Parker, D.J., Taylor, C.M., Garcia-Carreras, L., Harris, P.P., Marsham, J.H., Polcher, J., Woolley, A., School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom, National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements, Cranfield, United Kingdom, Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)
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Atmospheric Science ,Aircraft data ,[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] ,LES ,West Africa ,NCMCs ,[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences ,AMMA ,Convective triggering ,JULES - Abstract
International audience; Observational data are presented from several low-level flights carried out during the afternoon over areas of the Sahel that had been previously wetted by rain. The measurements are used to quantify the response of boundary-layer circulations to surface heterogeneity over a range of ambient conditions. Satellite observations of surface temperature anomalies show that soil moisture is significantly correlated with the surface heterogeneity in a majority of flights. By analysing the flight data in frequency space, consistently high levels of coherence are found between surface and flight-level measurements at length-scales around 25 km, indicating the presence of mesoscale circulations induced by the surface variability. The circulations are detectable in all of the nine flights where the mean sensible heat flux is high enough and they persist in a range of background wind speeds up to 5 m s-1. Further analysis confirms that the spatial phase-difference between surface and flight-level variables increases with the strength of the mean wind along the flight track. The boundary-layer thermal anomalies and circulations are advected downstream by the mean wind, and lead to convergent uplift on the order of 0.25 m s-1 at the 25 km scale. These results compare well with those from a cloud-resolving model and are broadly consistent with an analytical, linear model of a heated boundary layer. By demonstrating the significance of soil moisture in driving the circulations, the study shows that soil moisture is a likely cause of the negative precipitation feedback seen in recent remote sensing studies over the region. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.
- Published
- 2013
8. Impact of soil moisture and convectively generated waves on the initiation of a West African mesoscale convective system
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Birch, C.E., Parker, D.J., O'Leary, A., Marsham, J.H., Taylor, C.M., Harris, P.P., Lister, G.M.S., Birch, C.E., Parker, D.J., O'Leary, A., Marsham, J.H., Taylor, C.M., Harris, P.P., and Lister, G.M.S.
- Abstract
A mesoscale convective system (MCS) case study was observed over northeast Mali as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) on 31 July 2006. Observations of this case suggest that the soil-moisture heterogeneity and atmospheric gravity waves emitted from a ‘parent’ MCS were important trigger mechanisms for this system. This study uses high-resolution Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations to assess the importance of the synoptic circulation, land-surface and gravity waves in the initiation and development of the MCS. During the early afternoon shallow convection developed over a region of dry soil within a synoptic-scale convergence zone, which was caused by the confluence of the southerly monsoon flow with winds associated with the circulation around the Saharan heat low. Two pronounced waves were emitted from a nearby ‘parent’ storm and propagated towards the convergence zone. When the second wave reached the location of the shallow convection, deep convection was immediately initiated. Further convective cells developed later in the afternoon over dry soil, many adjacent to strong soil moisture gradients; these aggregated with the main storm, which later developed into the case study MCS. A comparison of model simulations with/without the soil-moisture heterogeneity and gravity waves shows that the synoptic-scale circulation and convergence zones, specified by the atmospheric analysis, were the most important factors for the successful simulation of the MCS. If the location of the initiation of the system is to be forecast accurately, the land-surface, that is, the soil moisture, must be represented adequately. In order to reproduce the timing of the secondary initiation of convection correctly the model must be able to capture gravity waves that are emitted by existing systems.
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- 2013
9. A climatology of dust emission events from northern Africa using long-term surface observations
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Cowie, S.M., Knippertz, P., and Marsham, J.H.
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13. Climate action - Abstract
Long-term (1984-2012) surface observations from 70 stations in the Sahara and Sahel are used to explore the diurnal, seasonal and geographical variations in dust emission events and thresholds. The frequency of dust emission (FDE) is calculated using the present weather codes of SYNOP reports. Thresholds are estimated as the wind speed for which there is a 50% probability of dust emission and are then used to calculate strong wind frequency (SWF) and dust uplift potential (DUP), where the latter is an estimate of the dust-generating power of winds. Stations are grouped into six coherent geographical areas for more in-depth analysis. FDE is highest at stations in Sudan and overall peaks in spring north of 23° N. South of this, where stations are directly influenced by the summer monsoon, the annual cycle in FDE is more variable. Thresholds are highest in northern Algeria, lowest in the latitude band 16-21° N and have greatest seasonal variations in the Sahel. Spatial variability in thresholds partly explain spatial variability in frequency of dust emission events on an annual basis. However, seasonal variations in thresholds for the six grouped areas are not the main control on seasonal variations in FDE. This is demonstrated by highly correlated seasonal cycles of FDE and SWF which are not significantly changed by using a fixed, or seasonally varying, threshold. The likely meteorological mechanisms generating these patterns such as low-level jets and haboobs are discussed.
10. Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations
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Ryder, C.L., McQuaid, Jim B., Flamant, C., Rosenberg, P.D., Washington, R., Brindley, H.E., Highwood, E.J., Marsham, J.H., Parker, D.J., Todd, M.C., Banks, J.R., Brooke, J.K., Engelstaedter, S., Estelles, V., Formenti, P., Garcia-Carreras, L., Kocha, C., Marenco, F., Sodemann, Harald, Allen, C.J.T., Bourdon, A., Bart, M., Cavazos-Guerra, C., Chevaillier, S., Crosier, J., Darbyshire, E., Dean, A.R., Dorsey, J.R., Kent, J., O’Sullivan, D., Schepanski, K., Szpek, K., Trembath, J., and Woolley, A.
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13. Climate action - Abstract
The Fennec climate programme aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE (Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement) Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed for and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sizes of up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager) satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas Mountains, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse-mode size distributions and AERONET (AERosol Robotic NETwork) sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (14), ISSN:1680-7375, ISSN:1680-7367
11. The importance of rare, high-wind events for dust uplift in northern Africa
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Cowie, S.M., Marsham, J.H., and Knippertz, P.
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13. Climate action
12. Modeling haboob dust storms in large-scale weather and climate models
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Pantillon, F., Knippertz, P., Marsham, J.H., Panitz, H.-J., and Bischoff-Gauss, I.
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13. Climate action
13. A climatology of dust emission events from northern Africa using long-term surface observations
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Cowie, S.M., Knippertz, P., and Marsham, J.H.
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13. Climate action
14. The DACCIWA Project: Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa
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Knippertz, P., Coe, H., Chiu, J.C., Evans, M.J., Fink, A.H., Kalthoff, N., Liousse, C., Mari, C., Allan, R.P., Brooks, B., Danour, S., Flamant, C., Jegede, O.O., Lohou, F., and Marsham, J.H.
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13. Climate action - Abstract
Massive economic and population growth, and urbanization are expected to lead to a tripling of anthropogenic emissions in southern West Africa (SWA) between 2000 and 2030. However, the impacts of this on human health, ecosystems, food security, and the regional climate are largely unknown. An integrated assessment is challenging due to (a) a superposition of regional effects with global climate change; (b) a strong dependence on the variable West African monsoon; (c) incomplete scientific understanding of interactions between emissions, clouds, radiation, precipitation, and regional circulations; and (d) a lack of observations. This article provides an overview of the DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project. DACCIWA will conduct extensive fieldwork in SWA to collect high-quality observations, spanning the entire process chain from surface-based natural and anthropogenic emissions to impacts on health, ecosystems, and climate. Combining the resulting benchmark dataset with a wide range of modeling activities will allow (a) assessment of relevant physical, chemical, and biological processes; (b) improvement of the monitoring of climate and atmospheric composition from space; and (c) development of the next generation of weather and climate models capable of representing coupled cloud–aerosol interactions. The latter will ultimately contribute to reduce uncertainties in climate predictions. DACCIWA collaborates closely with operational centers, international programs, policymakers, and users to actively guide sustainable future planning for West Africa. It is hoped that some of DACCIWA’s scientific findings and technical developments will be applicable to other monsoon regions.
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