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The gyre-scale, dynamic sea surface height (SSH) variability signifies the spatial redistribution of heat and freshwater in the ocean, influencing the ocean circulation, weather, climate, sea level, and ecosystems. It is known that the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the interannual SSH variability in the North Atlantic exhibits a tripole gyre pattern, with the subtropical gyre varying out of phase with both the subpolar gyre and the tropics, influenced by the low-frequency North Atlantic Oscillation. We show that the first EOF mode explains the majority (60 %–90 %) of the interannual SSH variance in the Labrador and Irminger Sea, whereas the second EOF mode is more influential in the northeastern part of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), explaining up to 60 %–80% of the regional interannual SSH variability. We find that the two leading modes do not represent physically independent phenomena. On the contrary, they evolve as a quadrature pair associated with a propagation of SSH anomalies from the eastern to the western SPNA. This is confirmed by the complex EOF analysis, which can detect propagating (as opposed to stationary) signals. The analysis shows that it takes about 2 years for sea level signals to propagate from the Iceland Basin to the Labrador Sea, and it takes 7–10 years for the entire cycle of the North Atlantic SSH tripole to complete. We demonstrate that the observed interannual-to-decadal variability of SSH, including the westward propagation of SSH anomalies, is the result of a complex interplay between the local wind and surface buoyancy forcing, and the advection of properties by mean ocean currents. The relative contribution of each forcing term to the variability is space and time dependent. We show that the most recent cooling and freshening observed in the SPNA since about 2010 were mostly driven by advection associated with the North Atlantic Current. The results of this study indicate that signal propagation is an important component of the North Atlantic SSH tripole, as it applies to the SPNA.

The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcing, which would accelerate coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increase coastal flood risk. While the slowdown has not been observed to date, we show here that the AMOC-induced intrinsic changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. For the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts, using observations and an ocean state estimate, we have established a strong link between coastal sea level, the associated flood frequency, and gyre-scale dynamic sea level and oceanic heat content variability, which are largely controlled by AMOC-driven ocean heat convergence. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020.The results of this study highlight the importance of accounting for natural, large-scale sea level variability in order to improve coastal sea level projections and to better assess coastal flood risk., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

This work assesses the value of expendable bathythermograph (XBT) and Argo profiling float observations to monitor the Atlantic Ocean boundary current systems (BCS), meridional overturning circulation (MOC), and meridional heat transport (MHT). Data from six XBT transects and available Argo floats in the Atlantic Ocean for the period from 2000 to 2018 are used to estimate the structure and variability of the BCS, MOC, and MHT, taking into account different temporal and spatial mapping strategies. The comparison of Argo data density along these six XBT transects shows that Argo observations outnumber XBT observations only above mapping scales of 30 days and 3° boxes. The comparison of Argo and XBT data for the Brazil Current and Gulf Stream shows that Argo cannot reproduce the structure and variability of these currents, as it lacks sufficient resolution to resolve the gradients across these narrow jets. For the MHT and MOC, Argo estimates are similar to those produced by XBTs at a coarse mapping resolution of 5° and 30 days. However, at such a coarse resolution the root-mean-square errors calculated for both XBT and Argo estimates relative to a high-resolution baseline are higher than 3 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) and 0.25 PW for the MOC and MHT, respectively, accounting for about 25%–30% of their mean values due to the smoothing of eddy variability along the transects. A key result of this study is that using Argo and XBT data jointly, rather than separately, improves the estimates of MHT, MOC, and BCS.

We investigate the potential impacts of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on El Niño and the associated atmosphere and ocean dynamics by using the Community Earth System Model–Large Ensemble Simulation (CESM-LENS). The individual effects of IPO and AMO on El Niño frequency and the underlying atmosphere–ocean processes are well reproduced in CESM-LENS and agree with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of El Niño frequency to the AMO is robust mainly during the negative IPO phase and very weak during the positive IPO phase. Further analysis suggests that the atmospheric mean state in the Pacific is much amplified during the negative IPO phase, facilitating the AMO-induced interocean atmospheric teleconnections. More specifically, during the negative IPO phase of the amplified mean state, the positive AMO enhances ascending motion from the northeastern Pacific, which in turn increases subsidence into the southeast Pacific through local anomalous Hadley circulation. The associated low-level easterly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific are also reinforced by amplified upper-level divergence over the Maritime Continent to enhance the negative IPO, which is unfavorable for El Niño occurrence. Conversely, the negative AMO nearly cancels out the suppressing effect of the negative IPO on El Niño occurrence. During the positive IPO phase of the weakened atmospheric mean state, however, the AMO-induced interocean atmospheric teleconnections are much weaker; thus, neither the positive nor the negative AMO has any significant impact on El Niño occurrence.

Deep oceanic overturning circulation in the Atlantic (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC) is projected to decrease in the future in response to anthropogenic warming. Caesar et al. 1 argue that an AMOC slowdown started in the 19 th century and intensified during the mid-20th century. Although the argument and selected evidence proposed have some merits, we find that their conclusions might be different if a more complete array of data available in the North Atlantic region had been considered. We argue that the strength of AMOC over recent centuries is still poorly constrained and the expected slowdown may not have started yet. K.H.K. acknowledges funding from NOAA grant NA20OAR4310481. D.E.A. and B.L.O.-B. acknowledge support from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. N.M.W. acknowledges support from a NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship. M.F.J. acknowledges support from NSF award OCE-1846821 and C.M.L. acknowledges support from NSF award OCE-1805029. This is UMCES contribution 6062. Peer Reviewed Article signat per 17 autors/es: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MD, USA: K. Halimeda Kilbourne / Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA: Alan D. Wanamaker / Geography Department, Durham University, Durham, UK: Paola Moffa-Sanchez / Centre for Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK: David J. Reynolds, Paul G. Butler & James Scourse / Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA: Daniel E. Amrhein & Bette L. Otto-Bliesner / Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Falmouth, MA, USA: Geoffrey Gebbie & Nina M. Whitney / Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA: Marlos Goes / Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, FL, USA: Marlos Goes / Department of the Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA: Malte F. Jansen / Oceanography Department, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Texas, TX, USA: Christopher M. Little / US Geological Survey, St Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St Petersburg, FL, USA: Madelyn Mette / Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain: Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro & Pablo Ortega / Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, USA: Thomas Rossby / University Corporation of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA: Nina M. Whitney

Simultaneous temperature and salinity profile measurements are of extreme importance for research; operational oceanography; research and applications that compute content and transport of mass, heat, and freshwater in the ocean; and for determining water mass stratification and mixing rates. Historically, temperature profiles are much more abundant than simultaneous temperature and salinity profiles. Given the importance of concurrent temperature and salinity profiles, several methods have been developed to derive salinity solely based on temperature profile observations, such as expendable bathythermograph (XBT) temperature measurements, for which concurrent salinity observations are typically not available. These empirical methods used to date contain uncertainties as a result of temporal changes in salinity and seasonality in the mixed layer, and are typically regionally based. In this study, a new methodology is proposed to infer salinity in the Atlantic Ocean from the water surface to 2000-m depth, which addresses the seasonality in the upper ocean and makes inferences about longer-term changes in salinity. Our results show that when seasonality is accounted for, the variance of the residuals is reduced in the upper 150 m of the ocean and the dynamic height errors are smaller than 4 cm in the whole study domain. The sensitivity of the meridional heat and freshwater transport to different empirical methods of salinity estimation is studied using the high-density XBT transect across 34.5°S in the South Atlantic Ocean. Results show that accurate salinity estimates are more important on the boundaries, suggesting that temperature–salinity compensation may be also important in those regions.

Expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data provide one of the longest available records of upper-ocean temperature. However, temperature and depth biases in XBT data adversely affect estimates of long-term trends of ocean heat content and, to a lesser extent, estimates of volume and heat transport in the ocean. Several corrections have been proposed to overcome historical biases in XBT data, which rely on constantly monitoring these biases. This paper provides an analysis of data collected during three recent hydrographic cruises that utilized different types of probes, and examines methods to reduce temperature and depth biases by improving the thermistor calibration and reducing the mass variability of the XBT probes.The results obtained show that the use of individual thermistor calibration in XBT probes is the most effective calibration to decrease the thermal bias, improving the mean thermal bias to less than 0.02°C and its tolerance from 0.1° to 0.03°C. The temperature variance of probes with screened thermistors is significantly reduced by approximately 60% in comparison to standard probes. On the other hand, probes with a tighter weight tolerance did not show statistically significant reductions in the spread of depth biases, possibly because of the small sample size or the sensitivity of the depth accuracy to other causes affecting the analysis.

The Brazil Current (BC) is the Western Boundary Current of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, the dominant dynamic feature in the South Atlantic Ocean. The importance of this current lies in that it is the main conduit of subtropical waters to higher latitudes in the South Atlantic Ocean. This study assesses the structure and variability of the BC across the nominal latitude of 22° S using data from the high-density eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) AX97 transect and from three numerical ocean models with data assimilation. This XBT transect was implemented in 2004 and represents one of the longer-term monitoring systems of the BC in existence. The goal of this work is to enhance the understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of the ocean dynamics in the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean by using a suite of hydrographic observations and numerical model outputs. In the present work, 37 XBT transect realizations using data collected between 2004 and 2012 are used. Daily outputs covering the same time period are evaluated from Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM-NCODA) with a 1/12° horizontal resolution, and GLORYS2V3 and FOAM, both with a 1/4° horizontal resolution. These Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems (OFAS) are able to capture the mean observed features in the 22° S region, showing a BC core confined to the west of 39° W and an Intermediate Western Boundary Current between the depths of 200 and 800 m. However, the OFAS tend to overestimate the mean BC baroclinic volume transport across the AX97 reference transect and underestimate its variability. The OFAS show that the coastal region between the coastline and the western edge of the AX97 transect plays an important role in the mean BC total transport, contributing to up to 23 % of its value, and further that this transport is not sampled by the XBT observations with its current sampling strategy. In order to understand the variability of the BC, a statistical classification of the BC is proposed, with the identification of three different events: weak, intermediate, and strong.

Expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data were the major component of the ocean temperature profile observations from the late 1960s through the early 2000s, and XBTs still continue to provide critical data to monitor surface and subsurface currents, meridional heat transport, and ocean heat content. Systematic errors have been identified in the XBT data, some of which originate from computing the depth in the profile using a theoretically and experimentally derived fall-rate equation (FRE). After in-depth studies of these biases and discussions held in several workshops dedicated to discussing XBT biases, the XBT science community met at the Fourth XBT Science Workshop and concluded that XBT biases consist of 1) errors in depth values due to the inadequacy of the probe motion description done by standard FRE and 2) independent pure temperature biases. The depth error and temperature bias are temperature dependent and may depend on the data acquisition and recording system. In addition, the depth bias also includes an offset term. Some biases affecting the XBT-derived temperature profiles vary with manufacturer/probe type and have been shown to be time dependent. Best practices for historical XBT data corrections, recommendations for future collection of metadata to accompany XBT data, impact of XBT biases on scientific applications, and challenges encountered are presented in this manuscript. Analysis of XBT data shows that, despite the existence of these biases, historical XBT data without bias corrections are still suitable for many scientific applications, and that bias-corrected data can be used for climate research.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) actively contribute to Earth’s climate, but TC-climate interactions are largely unexplored in fully coupled models. Here we analyze the upper-ocean response to TCs using a highresolution Earth system model, in which a 0.58 atmosphere is coupled to an ocean with two different horizontal resolutions: 18 and 0.18. Both versions of the model produce realistic TC climatologies for the Northwestern Pacific region, as well as the transient surface ocean response. We examined the potential sensitivity of the coupled modeled responses to ocean grid resolution by analyzing TC-induced sea surface cooling, latent heat exchange, and basin-scale ocean heat convergence. We find that sea surface cooling and basin-scale aggregated ocean heat convergence are relatively insensitive to the horizontal ocean grid resolutions considered here, but we find key differences in the poststorm restratification processes related to mesoscale ocean eddies. We estimate the annual basin-scale TC-induced latent heat fluxes are 1.706 0.16 3 10 J and 1.436 0.16 3 10 J for the high-resolution and low-resolution model configurations, respectively, which account for roughly 45% of the total TC-induced ocean heat loss from the upper ocean. Results suggest that coupled modeling approaches capable of capturing ocean-atmosphere feedbacks are important for developing a complete understanding of the relationship between TCs and climate.

An observational system based on high-density expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data has provided the longest record of the South Atlantic meridional overturning and heat transport estimates across 34°S. Measurement biases are a point of concern for the capability of an XBT system to capture long-term trends in volume and heat transports, and the impact of such biases on the meridional overturning estimates has never been quantified. In the present study, the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation and heat transport to uncertainties in XBT measurements is quantified under the framework of an eddy-resolving model simulation. Results show that XBT measurement biases after 2010 can translate into small meridional overturning errors on the order of 3% or 0.38 Sv (1Sv = 106 m3 s−1), and 0.025 PW (1 PW = 1015 W) or 8% of the meridional heat transport in the model. Historical XBT-derived trends in transport estimates across 34°S are stronger and statistically significant after the late 1990s, 0.3 Sv decade−1 and 0.02 PW decade−1. These trends are mostly due to the XBT linear depth bias, with smaller contributions associated with temperature and depth offsets from the historical record. Long-term trends calculated from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis, estimated as 0.1 Sv/decade and 0.006 PW/decade, are 3 times smaller than the XBT-derived historical trends. Therefore, an adequate correction of historical XBT data is necessary for an early detection of trends in the meridional overturning circulation and heat transport.

The South Atlantic is an important pathway for the interbasin exchanges of heat and freshwater with strong influence on the global meridional overturning stability and variability. Along the 34°S parallel, a quarterly, high-resolution XBT transect (AX18) samples the temperature structure in the upper ocean. The AX18 transect has been shown to be a useful component of a meridional overturning monitoring system of the region. However, a feasible, cost-effective design for an XBT-based system has not yet been developed. Here we use a high-resolution ocean assimilation product to simulate an XBT-based observational system across the South Atlantic. The sensitivity of the meridional heat transport, meridional overturning circulation, and geostrophic velocities to key observational and methodological assumptions is studied. Key assumptions taken into account are horizontal and temporal sampling of the transect, salinity, and deep temperature inference, as well as the level of reference for geostrophic velocities. With the current sampling strategy, the largest errors in the meridional overturning and heat transport estimations are the reference (barotropic) velocity and the western boundary resolution. We show how altimetry can be used along with hydrography to resolve the barotropic component of the flow. We use the results obtained by the state estimation under observational assumptions to make recommendations for potential improvements in the AX18 transect implementation.

[1] We have developed, validated, and applied a synthetic method to monitor the off-equatorial eastward currents in the central tropical Atlantic. This method combines high-density expendable bathythermograph (XBT) temperature data along the AX08 transect with altimetric sea level anomalies (SLAs) to estimate dynamic height fields from which the mean properties of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), the North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC) and the South Equatorial Undercurrent (SEUC), and their variability can be estimated on seasonal to interannual timescales. On seasonal to interannual timescales, the synthetic method is well suited for reconstructions of the NECC variability, reproduces the variability of the NEUC with considerable skill, and less efficiently describes variations of the SEUC, which is located in a region of low SLA variability. A positive correlation is found between interannual variations of the NECC transport and two indices based on an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and southeasterly wind stress in the central tropical Atlantic. The NEUC is correlated on interannual timescales with SSTs and meridional wind stress in the Gulf of Guinea and zonal equatorial wind stress. This study shows that both altimetry and XBT data can be effectively combined for near-real-time inference of the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of the tropical Atlantic current system.

Biases in the depth estimation of expendable bathythermograph (XBT) measurements cause considerable errors in oceanic estimates of climate variables. Efforts are currently underway to improve XBT probes by including pressure switches. Information from these pressure measurements can be used to minimize errors in the XBT depth estimation. This paper presents a simple method to correct the XBT depth biases using a number of discrete pressure measurements. A blend of controlled simulations of XBT measurements and collocated XBT/CTD data is used along with statistical methods to estimate error parameters, and to optimize the use of pressure switches in terms of number of switches, optimal depth detection, and errors in the pressure switch measurements to most efficiently correct XBT profiles. The results show that given the typical XBT depth biases, using just two pressure switches is a reliable strategy for reducing depth errors, as it uses the least number of switches for an improved accuracy and reduces the variance of the resulting correction. Using only one pressure switch efficiently corrects XBT depth errors when the surface depth offset is small, its optimal location is at middepth (around or below 300 m), and the pressure switch measurement errors are insignificant. If two pressure switches are used, then results indicate that the measurements should be taken in the lower thermocline and deeper in the profile, at approximately 80 and 600 m, respectively, with an RMSE of approximately 1.6 m for pressure errors of 1 m.

The variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the upper tropical Atlantic basin is investigated using a reduced-gravity model in a simplified domain. Four sets of idealized numerical experiments are performed: (i) switch-on of the MOC until a fixed value when a constant northward flow is applied along the western boundary; (ii) MOC with a variable flow; (iii) MOC in a quasi-steady flow; and (iv) shutdown of the MOC in the Northern Hemisphere. Results from experiments (i) show that eddies are generated at the equatorial region by shear instability and detached northward; eddies are responsible for an enhancement of the mean flow and the variability of the MOC. Results from experiments (ii) show a transitional behavior of the MOC related to the eddy generation in interannual–decadal time scales as the Reynolds number varies due to the variations in the MOC. In experiments (iii), a critical Reynolds number Rec around 30 is found, above which eddies are generated. Experiments (iv) demonstrate that even after the collapse of MOC in the Northern Hemisphere, eddies can still be generated and carry energy across the equator into the Northern Hemisphere; these eddies act to attenuate the impact of the MOC shutdown on short time scales. The results described here may be particularly pertinent to ocean general circulation models in which the Reynolds number lies close to the bifurcation point separating the laminar and turbulent regimes.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's cli- mate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geo- engineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the

In this study, we investigate the subsurface salinity changes on decadal timescales across the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean using two ocean reanalysis products, the latest version of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II, as well as using additional climate model experiments. Results show that there is a recent significant salinity increase at the core of the salinity minimum at intermediate levels. The main underlying mechanism for this subsurface salinity increase is the lateral advective (gyre) changes due to the Southern Annular Mode variability, which conditions an increased contribution from the Indian Ocean high salinity waters into the Atlantic. The global warming signal has a secondary but complementary contribution. Latitudinal differences at intermediate depth in response to large-scale forcing are in part caused by local variation of westward propagation features, and by compensating contributions of salinity and temperature to density changes.

[1] The paleoclimate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3 (NCAR-CCSM3) is used to analyze changes in the water formation rates in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) control climate. During the MH, CCSM3 exhibits a north-south asymmetric response of intermediate water subduction changes in the Atlantic Ocean, with a reduction of 2 Sv in the North Atlantic and an increase of 2 Sv in the South Atlantic relative to PI. During the LGM, there is increased formation of intermediate water and a more stagnant deep ocean in the North Pacific. The production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is significantly weakened. The NADW is replaced in large extent by enhanced Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW), and also by an intensified of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), with the latter being a response to the enhanced salinity and ice formation around Antarctica. Most of the LGM intermediate/mode water is formed at 27.4

[1] Current climate model projections are uncertain. This uncertainty is partly driven by the uncertainty in key model parameters such as climate sensitivity (CS), vertical ocean diffusivity (Kv), and strength of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing. These parameters are commonly estimated using ensembles of model runs constrained by observations. Here we obtain a probability density function (pdf) of these parameters using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) - an intermediate complexity model with a dynamic three-dimensional ocean. Specifically, we run an ensemble of UVic ESCM runs varying parameters that affect CS, ocean vertical diffusion, and the effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a statistical emulator that interpolates the UVic ESCM output to parameter settings where the model was not evaluated. We adopt a Bayesian approach to constrain the model output with instrumental surface temperature and ocean heat observations. Our approach accounts for the uncertainties in the properties of model-data residuals. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to obtain a posterior pdf of these parameters. The mode of the climate sensitivity estimate is 2.8°C, with the corresponding 95% credible interval ranging from 1.8 to 4.9°C. These results are generally consistent with previous studies. The CS pdf is sensitive to the assumptions about the priors, to the effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and to the background vertical ocean diffusivity. Our method can be used with more complex climate models.

[1] Current projections of the oceanic response to anthropogenic climate forcings are uncertain. Two key sources of these uncertainties are (1) structural errors in current Earth system models and (2) imperfect knowledge of model parameters. Ocean tracer observations have the potential to reduce these uncertainties. Previous studies typically consider each tracer separately, neglect potentially important statistical properties of the system, or use methods that impose rather daunting computational demands. Here we extend and improve upon a recently developed approach using horizontally averaged vertical profiles of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11), radiocarbon (Δ14C), and temperature (T) observations to reduce model parametric and structural uncertainties. Our method estimates a joint probability density function, which considers cross-tracer correlations and spatial autocorrelations of the errors. We illustrate this method by estimating two model parameters related to the vertical diffusivity, the background vertical diffusivity, and the upper Southern Ocean mixing. We show that enhancing the upper Southern Ocean mixing in the model improves the representations of ocean tracers and improves the hindcasts of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The most probable value of the background vertical diffusivity in the pelagic pycnocline is between 0.1 and 0.2 cm2 s−1. According to the statistical method, observations of Δ14C reduce the uncertainty about the background vertical diffusivity mostly followed by CFC-11 and T. Using all three tracers jointly reduces the model uncertainty by 40%, more than each tracer individually. Given several important caveats, we illustrate how the reduced model parametric uncertainty improves probabilistic projections of the AMOC.

[1] We introduce a parameterization of ocean mixing by tropical cyclones (TCs) into an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The parameterization is based on previously published global budgets of TC-induced mixing derived from high-resolution satellite measurements of anomalous sea surface temperatures along storm tracks. Recognizing the caveats introduced, for example, by the simplified model structure, we find that the representation of realistic TC-induced mixing substantially alters the equilibrium conditions of (1) the thermal structure of the upper ocean, (2) the surface energy budget, and (3) the circulation in the equatorial to subtropical Pacific Ocean. These changes result in warmer upwelling regions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and an overall increase in ocean heat content consistent with the recent TC heat pump hypothesis. Spatial variability in the mixing appears to be a key factor in the modeled response. We find no substantial influence of the considered TC-induced mixing on poleward ocean heat transport in the analyzed model. Our results suggest that climate-sensitive mixing feedbacks are plausible; however, the large-scale effect is mainly confined to the subtropical Indo-Pacific region for present-day TC climatology.

[1] The Community Climate System Model version 3 is used to analyse changes in water mass subduction rates in the South Atlantic Ocean over the 21st century. The model results are first compared to observations over 1950–2000, and shown to be rather good. The subduction rates do not change significantly over the 21st century, but the densities at which water masses form become significantly lighter. The strong westerly winds in this region do not change much, which suggests small changes to the rate at which the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean takes up heat and carbon dioxide over the 21st century.

Retroflections of the North Brazil Current (NBC) are examined using observational data collected in the western tropical Atlantic between 35°W–44°W and 11°S–7°N. Acoustic Doppler Current profiler, conductivity temperature depth oxygen and expendable Bathythermograph data were obtained during a cruise conducted in February 2002. The water column was separated into two layers, the upper layer from the sea-surface to the 24.5 isopycnal and lower layer from the 24.5 to the 26.8 isopycnal. The upper layer includes the NBC, the South Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) and a portion of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). The lower layer includes the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC), the South Equatorial Undercurrent (SEUC), the North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC) and another portion of the EUC. With respect to earlier work, the data show that (1) the SEUC is primarily fed by waters from a recirculation gyre on its northern boundary with some minor transport retroflecting from the NBUC; (2) the EUC is fed primarily by southern hemisphere waters that retroflect from the NBC, but there is some northern hemisphere water in the near surface flow that connects the EUC and NEUC during this cruise; (3) the NECC during this cruise has no connection to the NBC and is fed by northern hemisphere waters originating in the North Equatorial Current; and (4) the majority of the upper layer NBC that crosses 44°W does not appear to retroflect from the boundary farther north to return equatorward. New results include: (1) quantification, for this period, of the amount of transport in the single current core at 44°W that is comprised of waters from the southern (9.2 Sv) and northern hemispheres (5.2 Sv); (2) demonstration that the single core of eastward flow at 44°W and 41°W separates into the NEUC and EUC by 35°W, with the former composed of northern hemisphere waters and the latter southern hemisphere waters; (3) demonstration that the precursor to the EUC (NEUC) at 44°W and 41°W accelerates (decelerates) by 35°W; and (4) depiction of the potential vorticity (PV) field showing that the PV front at 44°W has separated into a front of higher PV values coincident with NEUC and a low PV core at 35°W coincident with the EUC.

[1] In this work the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean circulation dynamics for warm and cold composite events are analyzed. Warm and cold typical years were composited from the respective five warmest and the five coldest years of the available record. Equatorial currents velocity and transport are calculated. During a typical warm event, the circulation decreases in the upper ocean, while during the typical cold event there is intensification. The strengthening (weakening) of the circulation during cold (warm) events increases (decreases) the stress between the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and the South Equatorial Current (SEC), associated with an increase (decrease) in entrainment of cold waters into the surface and their westward transport. The EUC showed striking differences between both composited events. For the cold (warm) event the EUC shows a greater (reduced) transport and core velocity, and a deeper (shallower) structure.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in redistributing heat and salt throughout the global oceans. Achieving a more complete understanding of the behavior of the AMOC system requires a comprehensive observational network that spans the entire Atlantic basin. This article describes several different types of observational systems that are used by scientists of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and their partners at other national and international institutions to study the complex nature of the AMOC. The article also highlights several emerging technologies that will aid AMOC studies in the future.