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177 results on '"Marlon, Jennifer R."'

5. Supplementary material to "Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models"

Author

Li, Fang, primary, Song, Xiang, additional, Harrison, Sandy P., additional, Marlon, Jennifer R., additional, Lin, Zhongda, additional, Leung, L. Ruby, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Marécal, Virginie, additional, Wang, Shiyu, additional, Ward, Daniel S., additional, Dong, Xiao, additional, Lee, Hanna, additional, Nieradzik, Lars, additional, Rabin, Sam S., additional, and Séférian, Roland, additional

Published
2024
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6. Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models

Author

Li, Fang, primary, Song, Xiang, additional, Harrison, Sandy P., additional, Marlon, Jennifer R., additional, Lin, Zhongda, additional, Leung, L. Ruby, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Marécal, Virginie, additional, Wang, Shiyu, additional, Ward, Daniel S., additional, Dong, Xiao, additional, Lee, Hanna, additional, Nieradzik, Lars, additional, Rabin, Sam S., additional, and Séférian, Roland, additional

Published
2024
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7. A Model-Based Approach to Wildland Fire Reconstruction Using Sediment Charcoal Records

Author

Itter, Malcolm S., Finley, Andrew O., Hooten, Mevin B., Higuera, Philip E., Marlon, Jennifer R., Kelly, Ryan, and McLachlan, Jason S.

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

Lake sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to reconstruct fire history including the identification of past wildland fires. One challenge of applying sediment charcoal records to infer fire history is the separation of charcoal associated with local fire occurrence and charcoal originating from regional fire activity. Despite a variety of methods to identify local fires from sediment charcoal records, an integrated statistical framework for fire reconstruction is lacking. We develop a Bayesian point process model to estimate probability of fire associated with charcoal counts from individual-lake sediments and estimate mean fire return intervals. A multivariate extension of the model combines records from multiple lakes to reduce uncertainty in local fire identification and estimate a regional mean fire return interval. The univariate and multivariate models are applied to 13 lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. Both models resulted in similar mean fire return intervals (100-350 years) with reduced uncertainty under the multivariate model due to improved estimation of regional charcoal deposition. The point process model offers an integrated statistical framework for paleo-fire reconstruction and extends existing methods to infer regional fire history from multiple lake records with uncertainty following directly from posterior distributions., Comment: 26 pages, 6 figures, 1 table

Published
2016

8. Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt.

Author

Manning, Joseph G, Ludlow, Francis, Stine, Alexander R, Boos, William R, Sigl, Michael, and Marlon, Jennifer R

Subjects
Humans, Conflict (Psychology), Climate, Rain, Seasons, Rivers, Geography, Models, Theoretical, History, Ancient, Volcanic Eruptions, Floods, Warfare, Egypt, Ancient, Conflict, Psychological, Conflict, Models, Theoretical, History, Ancient, Egypt
Abstract

Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305-30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.The degree to which human societies have responded to past climatic changes remains unclear. Here, using a novel combination of approaches, the authors show how volcanically-induced suppression of Nile summer flooding led to societal unrest in Ptolemaic Egypt (305-30 BCE).

Published
2017

16. Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

Author

Howe, Peter D, Mildenberger, Matto, Marlon, Jennifer R, and Leiserowitz, Anthony

Subjects
Climate Action, Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

Published
2015

17. Terrestrial plant microfossils in palaeoenvironmental studies, pollen, microcharcoal and phytolith. Towards a comprehensive understanding of vegetation, fire and climate changes over the past one million years

Author

Daniau, Anne-Laure, Desprat, Stéphanie, Aleman, Julie C., Bremond, Laurent, Davis, Basil, Fletcher, William, Marlon, Jennifer R., Marquer, Laurent, Montade, Vincent, Morales-Molino, César, Naughton, Filipa, Rius, Damien, and Urrego, Dunia H.

Published
2019
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18. Global Modern Charcoal Dataset (GMCD): A tool for exploring proxy-fire linkages and spatial patterns of biomass burning

Author

Hawthorne, Donna, Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J., Aleman, Julie C., Blarquez, Olivier, Colombaroli, Daniele, Daniau, Anne-Laure, Marlon, Jennifer R., Power, Mitchell, Vannière, Boris, Han, Yongming, Hantson, Stijn, Kehrwald, Natalie, Magi, Brian, Yue, Xu, Carcaillet, Christopher, Marchant, Rob, Ogunkoya, Ayodele, Githumbi, Esther N., and Muriuki, Rebecca M.

Published
2018
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19. Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond

Author

Fischer, Hubertus, Meissner, Katrin J., Mix, Alan C., Abram, Nerilie J., Austermann, Jacqueline, Brovkin, Victor, Capron, Emilie, Colombaroli, Daniele, Daniau, Anne-Laure, Dyez, Kelsey A., Felis, Thomas, Finkelstein, Sarah A., Jaccard, Samuel L., McClymont, Erin L., Rovere, Alessio, Sutter, Johannes, Wolff, Eric W., Affolter, Stéphane, Bakker, Pepijn, Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio, Barbante, Carlo, Caley, Thibaut, Carlson, Anders E., Churakova (Sidorova), Olga, Cortese, Giuseppe, Cumming, Brian F., Davis, Basil A. S., de Vernal, Anne, Emile-Geay, Julien, Fritz, Sherilyn C., Gierz, Paul, Gottschalk, Julia, Holloway, Max D., Joos, Fortunat, Kucera, Michal, Loutre, Marie-France, Lunt, Daniel J., Marcisz, Katarzyna, Marlon, Jennifer R., Martinez, Philippe, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Raible, Christoph C., Risebrobakken, Bjørg, Sánchez Goñi, María F., Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem, Sarnthein, Michael, Sjolte, Jesper, Stocker, Thomas F., Velasquez Alvárez, Patricio A., Tinner, Willy, Valdes, Paul J., Vogel, Hendrik, Wanner, Heinz, Yan, Qing, Yu, Zicheng, Ziegler, Martin, and Zhou, Liping

Published
2018
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23. Climate change opinions over time (COOT)

Author

Mildenberger, Matto, Howe, Peter D., Marlon, Jennifer R., Bergquist, Parrish, Wang, Xinran, Leiserowitz, Anthony, Rosenthal, Seth A., and Maibach, Edward

Abstract

Dataset for the paper Change in US state-level public opinion about climate change: 2008–2020, published in Environmental Research Letters (2022)

Published
2023
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30. Reconstructing Disturbances and Their Biogeochemical Consequences over Multiple Timescales

Author

MCLAUCHLAN, KENDRA K., HIGUERA, PHILIP E., GAVIN, DANIEL G., PERAKIS, STEVEN S., MACK, MICHELLE C., ALEXANDER, HEATHER, BATTLES, JOHN, BIONDI, FRANCO, BUMA, BRIAN, COLOMBAROLI, DANIELE, ENDERS, SARA K., ENGSTROM, DANIEL R., HU, FENG SHENG, MARLON, JENNIFER R., MARSHALL, JOHN, MCGLONE, MATT, MORRIS, JESSE L., NAVE, LUCAS E., SHUMAN, BRYAN, SMITHWICK, ERICA A. H., URREGO, DUNIA H., WARDLE, DAVID A., WILLIAMS, CHRISTOPHER J., and WILLIAMS, JOSEPH J.

Published
2014

32. Climatic History of the Northeastern United States During the Past 3000 Years

Author

Marlon, Jennifer R, Pederson, Neil, Nolan, Connor, Goring, Simon, Shuman, Bryan, Robertson, Ann, Booth, Robert, Bartlein, Patrick J, Berke, Melissa A, Clifford, Michael, Cook, Edward, Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann, Dietze, Michael C, Hessl, Amy, Hubeny, J. Bradford, Jackson, Stephen T, Marsicek, Jeremiah, McLachlan, Jason, Mock, Cary J, Moore, David J. P, Nichols, Jonathan, Peteet, Dorothy, Schaefer, Kevin, Trouet, Valerie, Umbanhowar, Charles, Williams, John W, and Yu, Zicheng

Subjects
Life Sciences (General), Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks - vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes - are strongly influenced by multidecadal- to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000BCE - 1700CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

Published
2017
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35. Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA

Author

Marlon, Jennifer R., Bartlein, Patrick J., Gavin, Daniel G., Long, Colin J., Anderson, R. Scott, Briles, Christy E., Brown, Kendrick J., Colombaroli, Daniele, Hallett, Douglas J., Power, Mitchell J., Scharf, Elizabeth A., and Walsh, Megan K.

Published
2012

36. Historic Global Biomass Burning Emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) Based on Merging Satellite Observations with Proxies and Fire Models (1750-2015)

Author

van Marle, Margreet J. E, Kloster, Silvia, Magi, Brian I, Marlon, Jennifer R, Daniau, Anne-Laure, Field, Robert D, Arneth, Almut, Forrest, Matthew, Hantson, Stijn, Kehrwald, Natalie M, Knorr, Wolfgang, Lasslop, Gitta, Li, Fang, Mangeon, Stephane, Yue, Chao, Kaiser, Johannes W, and van der Werf, Guido R

Subjects
Earth Resources And Remote Sensing
Abstract

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emissions estimates based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies, and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 petagrams of carbon per year. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990's after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 percent of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emissions estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Published
2017
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40. Author Correction: Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond

Author

Fischer, Hubertus, Meissner, Katrin J., Mix, Alan C., Abram, Nerilie J., Austermann, Jacqueline, Brovkin, Victor, Capron, Emilie, Colombaroli, Daniele, Daniau, Anne-Laure, Dyez, Kelsey A., Felis, Thomas, Finkelstein, Sarah A., Jaccard, Samuel L., McClymont, Erin L., Rovere, Alessio, Sutter, Johannes, Wolff, Eric W., Affolter, Stéphane, Bakker, Pepijn, Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio, Barbante, Carlo, Caley, Thibaut, Carlson, Anders E., Churakova (Sidorova), Olga, Cortese, Giuseppe, Cumming, Brian F., Davis, Basil A. S., de Vernal, Anne, Emile-Geay, Julien, Fritz, Sherilyn C., Gierz, Paul, Gottschalk, Julia, Holloway, Max D., Joos, Fortunat, Kucera, Michal, Loutre, Marie-France, Lunt, Daniel J., Marcisz, Katarzyna, Marlon, Jennifer R., Martinez, Philippe, Masson-Delmotte, Valerie, Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Raible, Christoph C., Risebrobakken, Bjørg, Goñi, María F. Sánchez, Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem, Sarnthein, Michael, Sjolte, Jesper, Stocker, Thomas F., Alvárez, Patricio A. Velasquez, Tinner, Willy, Valdes, Paul J., Vogel, Hendrik, Wanner, Heinz, Yan, Qing, Yu, Zicheng, Ziegler, Martin, and Zhou, Liping

Published
2018
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41. Corrigendum to “Terrestrial plant microfossils in palaeoenvironmental studies, pollen, microcharcoal and phytolith. Towards a comprehensive understanding of vegetation, fire and climate changes over the past one million years” [Revue de Micropaléontologie 63 (2019) 1–35]

Author

Daniau, Anne-Laure, Desprat, Stéphanie, Aleman, Julie C., Bremond, Laurent, Davis, Basil, Fletcher, William, Marlon, Jennifer R., Marquer, Laurent, Montade, Vincent, Morales-Molino, César, Naughton, Filipa, Rius, Damien, and Urrego, Dunia H.

Published
2020
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42. Climate Change in the American Mind: National Survey Data on Public Opinion (2008-2022)

Author

Ballew, Matthew T., Kotcher, John, Goldberg, Matthew H., Marlon, Jennifer R., Leiserowitz, Anthony, Rosenthal, Seth A., and Maibach, Edward

Subjects
Behavior, Climate Change in the American Mind, Opinion, Risk perceptions, Beliefs, Global warming, Communication, Politics, Public, Americans, United States, Policy, Worry, Attitudes, Climate change
Abstract

The Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) research project investigates Americans’ climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior, and the psychological, cultural, and political factors that influence them.

Published
2020
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45. Social norms motivate COVID-19 preventive behaviors

Author

Goldberg, Matthew H., primary, Gustafson, Abel, additional, Maibach, Edward, additional, Linden, Sander van der, additional, Ballew, Matthew Thomas, additional, Bergquist, Parrish, additional, Kotcher, John, additional, Marlon, Jennifer R., additional, Rosenthal, Seth A., additional, and Leiserowitz, Anthony, additional

Published
2020
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47. American Public Responses to COVID-19, April 2020

Author

Ballew, Matthew Thomas, primary, Bergquist, Parrish, additional, Goldberg, Matthew H., additional, Gustafson, Abel, additional, Kotcher, John, additional, Marlon, Jennifer R., additional, Roess, Amira, additional, Rosenthal, Seth A., additional, Maibach, Edward, additional, and Leiserowitz, Anthony, additional

Published
2020
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