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Long-term human-environmental interactions in naturally fragile drylands are an actual topic of geomorphological and geoarchaeological research. Furthermore, many prehistoric societies in drylands were also affected by seismic activity. The semi-arid Shiraki Plain in the tectonically active southeastern Caucasus is currently covered by steppes and largely devoid of settlements. However, numerous Late Bronze to Early Iron Age city-type fortified settlements suggest early state formation between ca. 3.2 – 2.5 ka that abruptly ended after that time. A paleolake was suggested for the lowest plain, and nearby pollen records suggest forest clearcutting of the upper altitudes under a more humid climate during the Late Bronze/Early Iron Ages. Furthermore, also an impact of earthquakes on regional Early Iron Age settlements was suggested. However, regional paleoenvironmental changes and paleoseismicity were not systematically studied so far. We combined geomorphological, sedimentological, chronological, paleoecological and hydrological modelling data to reconstruct regional Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in the Shiraki Plain, and identify possible natural and anthropogenic causes as well as possible seismic events during the Late Bronze/Early Iron Ages. Our results show a balanced to negative Early to Mid-Holocene water balance probably caused by forested upper slopes. Hence, no lake but an incipient Chernozem developed in the lowest plain. Following, Late Bronze/Early Iron Age forest clear-cutting obviously caused lake formation and the deposition of lacustrine sediments derived from intensive soil erosion. Subsequently, regional aridification obviously caused slow lake desiccation. Remains of freshwater fishes indicate that the lake potentially offered valuable ecosystem services for regional prehistoric societies even during the desiccation period. Finally, colluvial coverage of the lake sediments during the last centuries could have been linked with hydrological extremes during the Little Ice Age. Our study demonstrates that the Holocene hydrological balance of the Shiraki Plain was and is situated near a major hydrological threshold, making the landscape very sensitive to also small-scale human or natural influences with serious consequences for local societies. Furthermore, seismites in the studied sediments do not indicate an influence of earthquakes on the main and late phases of Late Bronze/Early Iron Age settlement. Altogether, our study underlines the high value of multi-disciplinary approaches to investigate long-term human-environmental interactions and paleoseismicity in drylands on millennial to centennial time scales.

The study of the mid-Holocene climate tipping point in tropical and subtropical Africa is the subject of current research, not only because there is a comparatively simple but nonlinear relationship between the change in cause (orbital forcing) and the accelerated response of the monsoon system, but also because the African monsoon is an example of a potentially positive evolution of living conditions for humans: modeling results suggest that the Sahel is expanding northward in the wake of human-induced recent global warming, with green belts spreading northward. New literature distinguishes tipping elements such as the African monsoon according to the nature of the cause and the response of the climate system. Research here focuses primarily on tipping points of the type, which is characterized by a critical slowing down and a decreasing recovery from perturbations. The African monsoon, on the other hand, is an example of the tipping point of the type, which is characterized by flickering before the transition. The two types also differ in the nature of their early warning signals (EWS). These EWS are increasingly becoming the focus of research, as they are particularly important for predicting possible tipping of climate in the future of our planet. For the African monsoon system, flickering between two stable states near the transition has been predicted by modeling, but has not yet been demonstrated on paleoclimate time series.The paleoenvironmental record from the Chew Bahir Basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift, which documents the climate history of eastern Africa of the past ~620 ka with decadal resolution in some parts provides the possibility to examine the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP, ~15–5 kyr BP) with regard to the possible occurrence of EWS. Thanks to six well-dated short sediment cores (

This paper evaluates risk-oriented frameworks for explaining environmental, social, and economic changes faced by fishing and herding communities in the Turkana Basin during and after the African Humid Period (AHP, 15?5?ka). The orbitally-forced AHP created moist conditions, high lake levels, and unusual hydrological connections across much of northern and eastern Africa. As arid conditions set in and rainfall decreased between 5.3 and 3.9?ka in eastern Africa, Lake Turkana (NW Kenya) shrank dramatically. Shoreline retreat coincided with an expansion of open plains, creating new ecological conditions and potential opportunities for early herders in the basin. In this changing landscape, economies shifted from food procurement (fishing/hunting aquatic resources) to food production (herding), likely through both in-migration by pastoralists and adoption of herding by local fishers. Early pastoralists also built at least seven megalithic pillar sites that served as communal cemeteries during this time. Recent research has shown that local environmental dynamics ? both during and after the AHP ? were complex, demanding a more careful interrogation of the notion that post-AHP life entailed new and/or heightened risks. Risk-buffering strategies might include mobility, diversification, physical storage, and exchange. Archaeologists working around Lake Turkana have proposed that economic shifts from fishing to pastoralism entailed increased mobility as a risk-buffering strategy to deal with aridity and resource unpredictability, and that pillar sites ? as fixed landmarks in an unstable landscape ? provided settings for congregation and exchange amongst increasingly mobile herding communities. However, recent research has shown that local environmental dynamics in the Lake Turkana basin ? both during and after the AHP ? were more complex than previously thought, necessitating re-evaluation of the notion that post-AHP life entailed new and/or heightened risks. Here, we explore risk buffering strategies (e.g. mobility, diversification, physical storage and/or exchange) as only one category of potential explanation for the new social practices observed in the region at this time. Gauging their applicability requires us to (a) assess the spatial mobility of communities and individuals interred at pillar sites; (b) evaluate whether and how mobility strategies may have changed as pastoralism supplanted fishing; and (c) examine alternative explanations for social and economic changes. Introduction Understanding risk in fishinghunting-gathering and pastoral economies - Considering risk in FHG economies - Risk perception and strategic action in pastoral economic contexts - Evaluating relations between mobility, risk, and reliability Climate and ecology records during and after the AHP - Lake sediments - Botanical records - Herbivore isotope records The archaeological record - Fisher-hunter-gatherers around Lake Turkana during the African Humid Period - Middle Holocene aridity and the advent of herding - “Before and after” versus processes of change Discussion: Ways forward - Fisher-hunter-gatherer groups during the African Humid Period - The advent of pastoralism - Mobility Conclusions

The formation of the East African Rift System led to the emergence of large topographical contrasts in southern Ethiopia. This extreme topography is in turn responsible for an extreme gradient in the distribution of precipitation between the dry lowlands (~500 mm a-1) in the surrounding of Lake Turkana and the moist western Ethiopian Highlands (~2,000 mm a-1). As a consequence, the prevailing vegetation is fractionated into a complex mosaic that includes desert scrubland along the Lake Turkana shore, woodlands and wooded grasslands in the Omo-River lowlands and the paleo-lake Chew Bahir catchment, afro-montane forests of the Ethiopian Highlands, and afro-alpine heath in most elevated parts. During the past 25 ka, southern Ethiopia has been exposed to significant climate changes, from a dry and cold Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 25-18 ka BP) to the African Humid Period (AHP, 15-5 ka BP), and back to present-day dry conditions. These shifts in temperature and precipitation may have affected the vegetation pattern and landscape in the area, but environmental data especially from LGM times are rare. This is because in times of a dry climate the paleo-lake Chew Bahir was dried up and hence the climate record in lake sediments was interrupted.In this study, we investigate the hydrological conditions during the LGM using a previously-developed lake balance model (LBM) for southern Ethiopia, which is now coupled with a new predictive vegetation model (PVM) to better understand the biosphere-hydrosphere interactions and thus possible precipitation thresholds. The PVM is based on the method of boosted regression trees using elevation and monthly precipitation as input to predict land-cover, tree-cover and vegetation greenness for a ~1 km grid covering the Omo-River, paleo-lake Chew Bahir, Lake Chamo and Lake Abaya catchments. We linked the PVM and the resulting land surface parameters with the LBM to model the impact of a changing land-cover to the actual evaporation. Furthermore, we used the glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGT) based paleo-temperature and tropical lapse rate reconstructions from Mount Kenya to consider the orographic temperature distribution in southern Ethiopia during the LGM. Using both, we simulated different precipitation amounts from 100% to 50% compared to the modern-day multi-annual averages and their effect on vegetation and lake levels of paleo-lake Chew Bahir. Our biosphere-hydrosphere modelling approach suggests 25 to 30% lower moisture availability during the LGM compared to the modern conditions and provides a high-resolution spatial reconstruction of the potential prevailing vegetation in the southern Ethiopian region.

In the context of human evolution and dispersal in Africa, it is important to understand past climate conditions and changes as possible drivers of these processes. One of the most recent climatic events was the end of the African Humid Period (AHP) at around 5 ka BP. This was marked by a decrease in precipitation following a long wet-phase in northern and eastern Africa, which caused many lakes to decrease in size or even desiccate. Although the termination of the AHP is well known, the timing and rate of the transition from wet to dry conditions is still heavily debated. To investigate the termination of the AHP at a high temporal resolution (subdecadal and subannual), fossil stromatolites and Etheria elliptica shells from paleo-shorelines in the Chew Bahir Basin, southern Ethiopia, were collected. Today, Lake Chew Bahir is a deltaic swamp, however in past pluvials a large lake was present that likely overflowed and connected to other basins similar to other amplifier lakes in the East African Rift System. Radiocarbon dating, oxygen and carbon stable isotope analyses, trace element analyses and petrographic mapping of stromatolite laminae structure were conducted. A strong correlation between δ18O and δ13C shows that paleo-lake Chew Bahir likely experienced highly evaporative conditions and indicate an endorheic state of the basin in times of stromatolite growth at 7.1, 5.8, 4.7 and 4.6 ka BP. Furthermore, our findings suggest highly fluctuating environmental conditions during these times and demonstrate that the transition to drier conditions was not a strictly linear trend. In summary, the stromatolites and Etheria elliptica shells are an excellent environmental archive due to their high temporal resolution, precise dating (± 30 yrs) and an indication of the paleo-lake water depth. These types of records provide insights to past changes in freshwater availability, the variability of which would have had large consequences for humans living in the region.

During the past 25 ka, southern Ethiopia has undergone tremendous climatic changes, from dry and relatively cold during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 25–18 ka) to the African Humid Period (AHP, 15–5 ka), and back to present-day dry conditions. As a contribution to better understand the effects of climate change on vegetation and lakes, we here present a new Predictive Vegetation Model that is linked with a Lake Balance Model and available vegetation-proxy records from southern Ethiopia including a new phytolith record from the Chew Bahir basin. We constructed a detailed paleo-landcover map of southern Ethiopia during the LGM, AHP (with and without influence of the Congo Air Boundary) and the modern-day potential natural landcover. Compared to today, we observe a 15–20% reduction in moisture availability during the LGM with widespread open landscapes and only few remaining forest refugia. We identify 25–40% increased moisture availability during the AHP with prevailing forests in the mid-altitudes and indications that modern anthropogenic landcover change has affected the water balance. In comparison with existing archaeological records, we find that human occupations tend to correspond with open landscapes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in southern Ethiopia.