To the Editor:Drs. Ogino and Wilson (2002xSMN dosage analysis and risk assessment for spinal muscular atrophy. Ogino, S and Wilson, RB. Am J Hum Genet. 2002; 70: 1598–1599Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | Scopus (14)See all References2002 [in this issue]) raised some issues regarding our paper on quantitative testing of SMN1 and SMN2 in spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) (Feldkotter et al. 2002xQuantitative analysis of SMN1 and SMN2 based on real-time LightCycler PCR: fast and highly reliable heterozygosity testing and prediction of severity of spinal muscular atrophy. Feldkotter, M, Wirth, R, Schwarzer, V, and Wirth, B. Am J Hum Genet. 2002; 70: 358–368Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (467)See all References2002). First, they raised some ethical issues regarding the testing of unaffected children for SMA. We are also aware of the controversial aspects of such testing and, in general, agree with Drs. Ogino and Wilson: the identification, at birth, of homozygous absence of SMN1 in children, followed by the quantitative analysis of SMN2, should be offered as a prognostic tool only when a therapy for SMA is available. In this case, a newborn screening (similar to that in phenylketonuria) could—and possibly should—be considered. Since several drugs that up-regulate full-length SMN2 have been found (Andreassi et al. 2001xAclarubicin treatment restores SMN levels to cells derived from type I spinal muscular atrophy patients. Andreassi, C, Jarecki, J, Zhou, J, Coovert, DD, Monani, UR, Chen, X, Whitney, M, Pollok, B, Zhang, M, Androphy, E, and Burghes, AH. Hum Mol Genet. 2001; 10: 2841–2849Crossref | PubMedSee all References2001; Chang et al. 2001xTreatment of spinal muscular atrophy by sodium butyrate. Chang, JG, Hsieh-Li, HM, Jong, YJ, Wang, NM, Tsai, CH, and Li, H. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2001; 98: 9808–9813Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (291)See all References2001) and since the identification of many more is in progress, the development of a therapy for SMA seems likely to become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the development of a highly sensitive and fast method to determine the number of SMN2 copies will be an essential prerequisite before starting a therapy. Furthermore, the identification, immediately after birth, of children who carry homozygous absence of SMN1 will be equally essential, to start the therapy before the motor neurons are degenerated. On the basis of the number of SMN2 copies, the dosage and starting-point of a therapy may significantly vary.Since an efficient therapy has to be started early, we calculated the posterior probability that a child with an SMN1 deletion would develop type I, type II, or type III SMA, under the assumption that the analysis is done immediately after birth. As a consequence, we have used a Bayesian-type analysis that is based on the odds ratios and a priori probabilities as chosen.We reevaluated the sensitivity calculations, and we agree with Drs. Ogino and Wilson that the sensitivity of the test, for the detection of an SMA carrier from the general population without family history, is 95.9% (i.e., 1-0.024+0.017), since 2.4% of carriers have two SMN1 copies per chromosome and 1.7% carry intragenic SMN1 mutations. Therefore, there is a posterior probability of ∼1:850 (i.e., [4.1/100]×[1/35]) that a person from the general population who carries two SMN1 copies is an SMA carrier. The carrier frequency of 1:35 is based on the results presented in our previous article (Feldkotter et al. 2002xQuantitative analysis of SMN1 and SMN2 based on real-time LightCycler PCR: fast and highly reliable heterozygosity testing and prediction of severity of spinal muscular atrophy. Feldkotter, M, Wirth, R, Schwarzer, V, and Wirth, B. Am J Hum Genet. 2002; 70: 358–368Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (467)See all References2002). The sensitivity of the test for the detection of an SMA carrier from a family with an affected patient who carries a homozygous absence of SMN1 is 97.6% (i.e., 1-0.024).With reference to the primers designed to detect either SMN1 or SMN2, the test is based on two nucleotide differences in exon 7 and in intron 7 (position +100). This implies that converted SMN genes may amplify with a decreased efficiency. At this point, it is important to mention that, in the large majority (42/44 [∼95%]) of converted SMN genes, the complete gene, except for the region containing the nucleotide difference in exon 8, is converted (Hahnen et al. 1996xHybrid survival motor neuron genes in patients with autosomal recessive spinal muscular atrophy: new insights into molecular mechanisms responsible for the disease. Hahnen, E, Schonling, J, Rudnik-Schoneborn, S, Zerres, K, and Wirth, B. Am J Hum Genet. 1996; 59: 1057–1065PubMedSee all References1996). This means that, for most converted SMN genes, the two primers that we have applied lie in either SMN1 or SMN2 only and will not hamper the efficiency of the PCR. Additionally, the analysis of 20 patients with only homozygous absence of SMN1 exon 7 showed identical number of SMN2 copies analyzed with both methods—multiplex competitive PCR (Wirth et al. 1999xQuantitative analysis of survival motor neuron copies: identification of subtle SMN1 mutations in patients with spinal muscular atrophy, genotype-phenotype correlation, and implication for genetic counseling. Wirth, B, Herz, M, Wetter, A, Moskau, S, Hahnen, E, Rudnik-Schoneborn, S, Wienker, T, and Zerres, K. Am J Hum Genet. 1999; 64: 1340–1356Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (216)See all References1999) and LightCycler PCR (Feldkotter et al. 2002xQuantitative analysis of SMN1 and SMN2 based on real-time LightCycler PCR: fast and highly reliable heterozygosity testing and prediction of severity of spinal muscular atrophy. Feldkotter, M, Wirth, R, Schwarzer, V, and Wirth, B. Am J Hum Genet. 2002; 70: 358–368Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (467)See all References2002). Nevertheless, the efficiency of the PCR may be reduced for those rarely observed SMN genes in which the breakpoint lies between the two primers used in the LightCycler PCR.