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ObjectivesTo evaluate the relationships between neighbourhood cohesion and subjective well-being (SWB) in two different informal settlement types.DesignCross-sectional analysis of a community-based survey.SettingCommunities in two districts, Sanjay Colony, Okhla Phase II and Bhalswa in Delhi, India.Participants328 residents in Bhalswa and 311 from Sanjay Colony.MeasurementsNeighbourhood social cohesion scale measured on an 18-point scale and the SWB scale made up of four subjective measures—hedonic, eudaemonic, evaluative and freedom of choice. Sociodemographic characteristics and trust were used as covariates.ResultsIn both neighbourhood types there was a statistically significant positive bivariate correlation between neighbourhood cohesion and SWB (Sanjay: r=0.145, pConclusionsOur findings contribute to the general knowledge about neighbourhood cohesion and SWB within different informal settlement types in a mega-city such as New Delhi, India. Interventions that promote sense of belonging, satisfaction with life and freedom of choice have the potential to significantly improve people’s well-being.

This paper draws on Hayek’s distinction between simple and complex phenomena to understand the nature of the challenge facing policymakers in responding to the new coronavirus pandemic. It shows that while government action is justifiable there may be few systemic mechanisms that enable policymakers to distinguish better from worse policy responses, or to make such distinctions in sufficient time. It then argues that this may be a more general characteristic of large-scale public policy making procedures and illustrates the importance of returning to a market-based political economy at the earliest convenience.

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of retaining one or more compromised first permanent molars (cFPMs) affected by dental caries or enamel hypomineralization, compared to timely extraction, in children aged 8 years.A Markov model was developed to simulate the lifetime of a cFPM. Two management strategies were compared: extraction facilitating spontaneous space closure or maintenance of teeth with restorations. Ten health states were utilized to capture long-term outcomes including various tooth restorations, prostheses or a retained gap at the cFPM site. Outcomes were expressed as Quality Adjusted Tooth-Years (QATYs). The model was informed by survey data on patient preferences for treatment outcomes and UK data on costs. Discounted costs and QATYs were calculated over 62 years.Regardless of the number of cFPMs, retaining cFPMs was more effective than early removal, generating an additional 2.3 QATYs per cFPM. Early removal of one or two cFPM under general anaesthetic (GA) was more expensive than retention and hence never cost-effective. Retaining a cFPM was more expensive than early removal under local anaesthesia or where four cFPMs were extracted under GA. In these cases, retaining cFPMs was cost-effective if a QATY was valued at £100 or £35, respectively. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis.Preserving a cFPM was more cost-effective than the early loss of one, or two cFPMs under GA. Preservation of four cFPMs was cost-effective if sufficient value was placed on a QATY. These findings can guide clinical practice on management of cFPMs alongside patient/payer values on maintaining teeth.

Chronic cough is a common reason for medical consultations and is associated with considerable physical and psychological morbidity. This study investigated healthcare use and cost in chronic cough and assessed its relationship with cough severity, health status, objective cough frequency (CF), and anxiety and depression. This was a prospective study of consecutive patients with chronic cough from a specialist clinic who completed a cough severity visual analogue scale (VAS), cough-specific health status (Leicester Cough Questionnaire; LCQ) and general health status EuroQol EQ-5D-5L, Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD7), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ9), and 24-hour objective CF monitoring with Leicester Cough Monitor (LCM). Case notes were reviewed for cough-specific healthcare use 12 months before and after the first cough clinic consultation. Resource use included general practitioner and hospital clinic visits, investigations, and treatments. Unit costs for healthcare use were derived predominantly from National Health Service Reference Costs. One hundred participants with chronic cough were recruited (69% female, median duration 3 years, mean age 58 years). The diagnoses of cough were unexplained (57%), refractory (27%), and other (16%). Cough severity, health status, and CF were: median (IQR) VAS = 59.5 (30–79) mm, mean (SD) LCQ = 11.9 (4.0), mean (SD) EQ-5D-5L = 0.846 (0.178), and geometric mean (SD) CF = 15.3 (2.5) coughs/hr, respectively. The mean (SD) total cost per individual for cough-related healthcare utilization was £1,663 (747). Diagnostic investigations were the largest contributor to cost (63%), followed by cough clinic consultations (25%). In multivariate analysis, anxiety (GAD7) and cough-related health status (LCQ) were associated with increased cost (p ≤.001 and .037). Healthcare cost associated with chronic cough are largely due to diagnostic investigations and clinic consultations. The predictors of costs were health status (LCQ) and anxiety. Further studies should investigate the optimal management protocols for patients with chronic cough.

ObjectiveGiven recent data on published diagnostic accuracies, this study sought to determine the most cost-effective diagnostic strategy for detection of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in stable angina patients using invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard.MethodsA probabilistic decision-analytical model was developed which modelled a cohort of patients with stable angina. We investigated 17 diagnostic strategies between standalone and combination of different imaging tests to establish a correct diagnosis of CAD, using no testing as the baseline reference. These tests included CT coronary angiography (CTCA), stress echocardiography, CT-based FFR, single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), positron emission tomography, ICA, and ICA with FFR. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as the additional cost per correct diagnosis.ResultsSPECT followed by CTCA and ICA-FFR is the most cost-effective strategy between a cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) value of £1000–£3000 per correct diagnosis. CMR followed by CTCA and ICA-FFR is cost-effective within a CET range of £3000–£17 000 per correct diagnosis. CMR and ICA-FFR is cost-effective within a CET range of £17 000–£24 000. ICA-FFR as first line is the most-cost effective if the CET value exceeds the £24 000 per correct diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis showed that direct ICA-FFR may be cost-effective in patients with a high pre-test probability of CAD.ConclusionFirst-line testing with functional imaging is cost-effective at low to intermediate value of correct diagnosis in patients with low to intermediate risk of CAD. ICA is not cost effective although ICA-FFR may be at higher CET.

To assess the outcomes of patients with early esophageal cancer (EEC) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) comparing esophagectomy, the historical treatment of choice, to endoscopic eradication therapy (EET). Methods Retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients with EEC/HGD, treated between 2000 and 2018 at a tertiary referral centre. Primary outcomes were all-cause and disease-specific mortality assessed by multivariable Cox regression and a propensity score matching sub analysis, providing hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for age, tumor grade (G1/2 vs G3), tumor stage and lymphovascular invasion(LVI). Secondary outcomes included complications, hospital stay, and overall costs. Results Among 269 patients, 133 underwent esophagectomy and 136 received endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR)+/−further EET. Adjusted survival analysis showed no difference between groups regarding all-cause mortality (HR 1.85,95%CI 0.73,4.72) and disease-specific mortality (HR 1.10,95%CI 0.26,4.65). In-hospital and 30-day mortality was 0% in both groups. The surgical group had a significantly higher rate of complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥3 26.3% vs EMR 0.74%), longer in-patient stay (median 14 vs 0 days EMR) and higher hospital costs ($20.426 vs $10.988 per patient). Conclusion This series of patients with EEC/HGD treated during a transition period from surgery to EET, demonstrates a primary endoscopic approach does not compromise oncological outcomes with the benefit of fewer complications, shorter hospital stays, and lower costs compared to surgery. EET should be available as the gold standard treatment for patients with early esophageal cancer. Those with adverse prognostic features may still benefit from esophagectomy.

Summary Background To assess the outcomes of patients with early esophageal cancer and high-grade dysplasia comparing esophagectomy, the historical treatment of choice, to endoscopic eradication therapy (EET). Methods Retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients with early esophageal cancer/high-grade dysplasia, treated between 2000 and 2018 at a tertiary center. Primary outcomes were all-cause and disease-specific mortality assessed by multivariable Cox regression and a propensity score matching sub analysis, providing hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age, tumor grade (G1/2 vs. G3), tumor stage, and lymphovascular invasion. Secondary outcomes included complications, hospital stay, and overall costs. Results Among 269 patients, 133 underwent esophagectomy and 136 received EET. Adjusted survival analysis showed no difference between groups regarding all-cause mortality (HR 1.85, 95% CI 0.73, 4.72) and disease-specific mortality (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.26, 4.65). In-hospital and 30-day mortality was 0% in both groups. The surgical group had a significantly higher rate of complications (Clavien–Dindo ≥3 26.3% vs. endoscopic therapy 0.74%), longer in-patient stay (median 14 vs. 0 days endoscopic therapy) and higher hospital costs(£16 360 vs. £8786 per patient). Conclusion This series of patients treated during a transition period from surgery to EET, demonstrates a primary endoscopic approach does not compromise oncological outcomes with the benefit of fewer complications, shorter hospital stays, and lower costs compared to surgery. It should be available as the gold standard treatment for patients with early esophageal cancer. Those with adverse prognostic features may still benefit from esophagectomy.

Background The aim of this study was to generate utility data to support economic evaluation of interventions for compromised first permanent molars (cFPMs) and to assess the reliability of responses using alternative elicitation methods.MethodsFifty adult respondents attending a Paediatric Dentistry department with their child completed a questionnaire to elicit utility values for eight clinical treatment scenarios for a compromised first permanent molar tooth (cFPM). These scenarios included restorations, prosthetic replacements or presence of a gap (missing tooth). The question formats included a ranking, a visual analogue scale (VAS) and a time trade off (TTO) exercise.ResultsMean utility values for each health state were generated using the VAS and TTO data. A white filling generated the highest utility (0.786 [VAS], 0.763 [TTO]) and was ranked as the most favourable treatment option. An open gap generated the lowest utility (0.344 [VAS], 0.523 [TTO]). A closed gap (0.6392 [VAS]) was rated below various tooth restorations but above a traditional bridge (0.5944 [VAS]) or denture (0.4312 [VAS]), according to mean VAS scores. VAS responses showed better agreement (kappa=0.48) with the ranking exercise compared to TTO responses (kappa= -0.003).ConclusionsPlausible and broadly consistent values were generated with VAS and TTO, but TTO data seemed to be less reliable. These data allow comparison of treatment options involving extraction and gap closure or restoration of cFPMs using a single measure of patient preference.

Background: Selective dorsal rhizotomy (SDR) is an irreversible surgical procedure involving the division of selected sensory nerve roots, followed by intensive physiotherapy. The aim is to improve function and quality of life in children with cerebral palsy and a Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level of II or III (walks with or without assistive devices, respectively). We assessed gross motor function before and after SDR and postoperative quality of life in a study commissioned by NHS England. Methods: We did a prospective observational study in five hospitals in England who were commissioned to perform SDR on children aged 3–9 years with spastic diplegic cerebral palsy. The primary outcome was score changes in the 66-item Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM-66) and seven domains of the Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life Questionnaire ([CP-QoL] social wellbeing and acceptance, feelings about functioning, participation and physical health, emotional wellbeing and self-esteem, access to services, family health, and pain and impact of disability) from before to 24 months after SDR. Findings: From Sept 4, 2014, to March 21, 2016, 137 children underwent SDR. The mean age was 6·0 years (SD 1·8). The mean GMFM-66 score increased after SDR with an annual change of 3·2 units (95% CI 2·9 to 3·5, n=137). Of the seven CP-QoL domains, five showed significant improvements over time: feelings about functioning mean annual change 3·0 units (95% CI 2·0 to 4·0, n=133), participation and physical health 3·9 units (2·5 to 5·3, n=133), emotional wellbeing and self-esteem 1·3 units (0·2 to 2·3, n=133), family health 2·0 units (0·7 to 3·3, n=132), and pain and impact of disability −2·5 units (−3·9 to −1·2, n=133). 17 adverse events were reported in 15 children, of which none were severe and 15 (88%) resolved. Interpretation: SDR improved function and quality of life in the 24 months after surgery in children with cerebral palsy classified as GMFCS levels II and III. On the basis of these findings, an interim national policy decision was made that SDR would be funded for eligible children in England from 2018. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, NHS England.

OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to compare changes over 2 years in patients' health-related quality of life (HRQL) with the health and social care costs of diagnosis and treatment of people newly referred to memory assessment services (MAS). METHODS: We analysed observational data from 1318 patients referred to 69 MAS who completed resource use and HRQL questionnaires at baseline 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. We reported mean differences in HRQL (disease-specific DEMQOL and generic EQ-5D-3 L), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and cost-effectiveness between baseline, and 2-year follow-up. RESULTS: Two years after referral to MAS, patients reported a higher DEMQOL score (mean gain 4.47, 95% confidence interval, 3.08-5.90) and EQ-5D-3 L (0.014, -0.011 to 0.039). Mean total costs and QALYs over 24 months was £2411 (£1721-£2873) and 0.027 (0.003-0.051), respectively. Assuming that patients' HRQL would not have altered over the 2 years had they not attended MAS, these outcomes suggest an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £89 546 (£38 123-£145 864) based on changes in EQ-5D-3 L. If we assumed that patients' HRQL would have declined by about 10% over this period had they not attended MAS, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be £25 056. The largest MAS (N = 32; 46%) with over 50 new patients a month were more likely to be cost-effective than smaller ones (P

BACKGROUND There is increasing interest in the potential uses of mobile health (mHealth) technologies, such as wearable biosensors, as supplements for the care of people with neurological conditions. However, adherence is low, especially over long periods. If people are to benefit from these resources, we need a better long-term understanding of what influences patient engagement. Previous research suggests that engagement is moderated by several barriers and facilitators, but their relative importance is unknown. OBJECTIVE To determine preferences and the relative importance of user-generated factors influencing engagement with mHealth technologies for 2 common neurological conditions with a relapsing-remitting course: multiple sclerosis (MS) and epilepsy. METHODS In a discrete choice experiment, people with a diagnosis of MS (n=141) or epilepsy (n=175) were asked to select their preferred technology from a series of 8 vignettes with 4 characteristics: privacy, clinical support, established benefit, and device accuracy; each of these characteristics was greater or lower in each vignette. These characteristics had previously been emphasized by people with MS and or epilepsy as influencing engagement with technology. Mixed multinomial logistic regression models were used to establish which characteristics were most likely to affect engagement. Subgroup analyses explored the effects of demographic factors (such as age, gender, and education), acceptance of and familiarity with mobile technology, neurological diagnosis (MS or epilepsy), and symptoms that could influence motivation (such as depression). RESULTS Analysis of the responses to the discrete choice experiment validated previous qualitative findings that a higher level of privacy, greater clinical support, increased perceived benefit, and better device accuracy are important to people with a neurological condition. Accuracy was perceived as the most important factor, followed by privacy. Clinical support was the least valued of the attributes. People were prepared to trade a modest amount of accuracy to achieve an improvement in privacy, but less likely to make this compromise for other factors. The type of neurological condition (epilepsy or MS) did not influence these preferences, nor did the age, gender, or mental health status of the participants. Those who were less accepting of technology were the most concerned about privacy and those with a lower level of education were prepared to trade accuracy for more clinical support. CONCLUSIONS For people with neurological conditions such as epilepsy and MS, accuracy (ie, the ability to detect symptoms) is of the greatest interest. However, there are individual differences, and people who are less accepting of technology may need far greater reassurance about data privacy. People with lower levels of education value greater clinician involvement. These patient preferences should be considered when designing mHealth technologies.

This paper draws on the work of Michel Foucault and Friedrich Hayek to understand threats to personal and enterprise freedom, arising from public health governance. Whereas public choice theory examines the incentives these institutions provide to agents, the analysis here understands those incentives as framed by discursive social constructions that affect the identity, power, and positionality of different actors. It shows how overlapping discourses of scientific rationalism may generate a ‘road to serfdom’ narrowing freedom of action and expression across an expanding terrain. As such, the paper contributes to the growing literature emphasising the importance of narratives, stories and metaphors as shaping political economic action in ways feeding through to outcomes and institutions.

Background This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of hemodialysis (HD) plus hemoperfusion (HP) with HD alone in adult patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in China. Methods A Markov model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions over a lifetime horizon. Model parameters were informed by the HD/HP trial, the first randomized, open-label multicenter trial comparing survival outcomes and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for HD + HP versus HD alone, and supplemented by published literature and expert opinion. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with respect to quality adjusted life-years (QALY). The robustness of the results was examined in extensive sensitivity analyses. Analyses were conducted from a healthcare perspective. Costs were reported in both Chinese Renminbi (RMB) and US Dollars (USD) in 2019 values. Results The base case ICER of HD + HP is RMB 174,486 (USD 25,251) per QALY, which is lower than the RMB 212,676 (USD 30,778) willingness-to-pay threshold of three times Gross Domestic Product. This conclusion is sensitive to the mortality for patients with no severe CVD events, the incidence of CVD events, and the cost of HP and HD. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of RMB 212,676 (USD 30,778) per QALY gained, the probability that HD + HP is cost-effective is 58%. Conclusions Our results indicate a potential for HD + HP to be cost-effective for patients with ESRD. Further evidence on the longer-term impact of HD + HP on CVD event rates and mortality unrelated to CVD is needed to robustly demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of HD + HP. Trial registration The HD/HP trial was registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR-IOR-16009332).

Background ESC guidelines recommend functional or anatomical imaging for stable coronary artery disease (CAD) diagnosis. We investigated cost-effective diagnostic strategies for CAD detection with invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) as reference standard [1,2], using NHS reference costs. Methods Deterministic and probabilistic decision-analytic models for diagnostic strategies in low (25%), intermediate (50%) and high (75%) risk CAD were devised. Strategies: standalone or combined testing with computed tomographic coronary angiography (CTCA), stress echocardiography (SE), CT-FFR, single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR), positron emission tomography (PET), ICA, and ICA-FFR. Proportion of correct diagnosis served as measure of clinical effectiveness. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for dominant strategies. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEAC) tested variation of cost-effectiveness threshold (CET). Results Base case (Table 1) consistent with probabilistic analysis (Figure 1 left). CEACs (Figure 1 right). Conclusions Direct ICA is not cost-effective. Functional testing has significant role in low/intermediate risk. CMR is cost-effective in all risk and most likely cost-effective in CETs References 1. Knuuti et al EHJ. 2018; 39(35):3322–30 2. Danad et al. EHJ. 2016; 38(13):991–8. Figure 1. A: low, B: intermediate, C: high. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): The authors acknowledge financial support from the Department of Health through the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre award to Guy's & St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London and King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and by the NIHR MedTech Co-operative for Cardiovascular Disease at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. This abstract presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Research for Patient Benefit (RfPB) Programme (Grant Reference Number PB-PG-0416-20008). This work was supported by the Wellcome/EPSRC Centre for Medical Engineering [WT 203148/Z/16/Z]. MSN was funded by the UK Medical Research Council under grant number MR/P01979X/1. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care, EPSRC, MRC or the Wellcome Trust.

Background Most adults do not meet the recommended intake of five portions per day of fruit and vegetables (F&V) in England, but economic analyses of structural policies to change diet are sparse. This study aimed to estimate (1) the health and economic burden attributable to the low intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) by English adults, and (2) the cost-effectiveness of three policies promoting consumption of F&V in England - a universal 10% subsidy, a targeted 30% subsidy for low-income households, and a nationwide social marketing campaign (SMC). Methods Using published data from official statistics and meta-epidemiological studies, we estimated the deaths, years-of-life lost (YLL), and the healthcare costs attributable to consumption of F&V below the recommended five portions per day by English adults. Then, we estimated the cost-effectiveness from governmental and societal perspectives of three policies. Results Low consumption of F&V accounted for 16,321 [10,091-23,516] deaths and 238,767 [170,350-311,651] YLL due to cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes and cancer in England in 2017, alongside £705,951 [398,761-1,061,559] million in healthcare costs. From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £22,891 [22,300-25,079], £16,860 [15,589-19,763], and £25,683 [25,237-28,671] per life-year saved for the universal subsidy, targeted subsidy and SMC, respectively. At a threshold of £20,000 per life-year saved, the likelihood that the universal subsidy, the targeted subsidy and the SMC were cost-effective was 84%, 19% and 5%, respectively. The targeted subsidy was the only policy that would also reduce inequalities. Conclusions Both a SMC and subsidies can significantly increase consumption of F&V and reduce the attributable burden of disease and healthcare costs, but their cost-effectiveness varies substantially. A targeted subsidy to low-income households is most likely cost-effective and can additionally reduce inequalities. Key messages Low intake of fruit and vegetables accounts for a substantial number of deaths and years of life lost and represents a heavy burden for the healthcare system in England. From a societal perspective, a targeted subsidy to low-income households was most likely cost-effective and it would reduce inequalities.

Background: Movement restriction policies (MRPs) are effective in preventing/delaying COVID-19 transition but are associated with high societal cost. This study aims to estimate the health burden of the first wave of COVID-19 in China, and the cost-effectiveness of early versus late implementation of MRPs so to inform preparation for future waves. Methods: The SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) modelling framework was adapted to simulate the health and cost outcomes of initiating MRPs at different times: rapid implementation (23 rd January, the real-world scenario), delayed by one week, delayed by two weeks and delayed by four weeks. The end point was set as the day when newly confirmed cases reached zero. Two costing perspectives were adopted: healthcare and societal. Input data were obtained from official statistics and published literature. The primary outcomes were disability adjusted life-years (DALY), cost and net monetary benefit. Costs were reported in both Chinese currency Renminbi (RMB) and US Dollar value in 2019 (USD). Findings: The first wave of COVID-19 in China resulted in 55,337 DALYs lost and 382 billion USD losses. The rapid implementation strategy dominated all other delayed strategies. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 70,892 (RMB) per DALY saved, the probability for the rapid implementation to be the optimal strategy was 89%. Interpretation: Early implementation of MRPs in response to COVID-19 reduced both the health burden and societal cost and thus should be used for future waves of COVID-19.Funding National Social Science Foundation and Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and the Family. Funding Statement: This work is supported by National Social Science Foundation (No. 18BGL235) and Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and the Family Foundation for Young Talents (2017YQ023). Declaration of Interests: MP received personal fees from Merck, outside the submitted work. Other than these, the authors declare no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: This study did not access individual patient data. Hence, ethical approval and patient informed consents were not required.

Aim The evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early intervention for psychosis (EIP) services has motivated their implementation worldwide. However, complex interventions of such EIP services require local adaptations to successfully match population needs and cultural differences. Latin America is a heterogenous region where EIP services are progressively being adopted. Our aim is to map such initiatives in the region with a focus on implementation outcomes. Methods A scoping review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines was conducted. International and regional databases were searched for publications describing EIP programmes in the region. Besides mapping the services, we described implementation outcomes based on the Standards for Reporting Implementation Studies Checklist. Results Ten articles describing seven EIP initiatives from the region were found. Four countries were represented: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. The implementation outcomes reporting was heterogenous, although it was possible to ascertain EIP services are feasible and adequate for the region's context. Also, there is some evidence of effectiveness in terms of reducing hospitalizations and improving symptoms. Information about fidelity measures was scarce and there was no information about costs or cost-effectiveness. Conclusions Only a small proportion of Latin American countries have adopted EIP services. Although these programmes seem to be feasible and effective, data on other implementation outcomes, such as fidelity, cultural appropriateness, cost-effectiveness and affordability are not available. This might in part explain why this effective approach has not been yet scaled-up at nationwide levels.

Background COVID-19, an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), swept through China in 2019–2020, with over 80,000 confirmed cases reported by end of March 2020. This study estimates the economic burden of COVID-19 in 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China between January and March 2020. Methods The healthcare and societal cost of COVID-19 was estimated using bottom-up approach. The main cost components included identification, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19, compulsory quarantine and productivity losses for all affected residents in China during the study period. Input data were obtained from government reports, clinical guidelines, and other published literature. The primary outcomes were total health and societal costs. Costs were reported in both RMB and USD (2019 value). Outcomes The total estimated healthcare and societal cost associated with the outbreak is 4.26 billion RMB (0.62 billion USD) and 2,647 billion RMB (383 billion USD), respectively. The main components of routine healthcare costs are inpatient care (41.0%) and medicines (30.9%). The main component of societal costs is productivity losses (99.8%). Hubei province incurred the highest healthcare cost (83.2%) whilst Guangdong province incurred the highest societal cost (14.6%). Interpretation This review highlights a large economic burden of the recent COVID-19 outbreak in China. These findings will aid policy makers in making informed decisions about prevention and control measures for COVID-19. Funding The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Research in context Evidence before this study We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health on April 4th, 2020, using key words and medical subject headings including (“coronavirus” OR “SARS-CoV-2” OR “COVID-19”) AND (“cost” OR “Economics” OR “resource” OR “productivity loss”). No restrictions on language or publication dates were applied. Our search did not identify any studies which reported the cost of COVID-19. Cost of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which is an infectious disease caused by another type of coronavirus – the SARS coronavirus – has been assessed by seven studies. The reported healthcare cost of managing SARS per case ranged from $4,151 USD in mainland China to $362,700 USD in Canada. The total healthcare cost and societal cost of the 2013 SARS outbreak in China took up 0.20% and 1.05% of China’s GDP, respectively. The global cost of SARS was estimated to be US $40 billion, the majority of which was caused by reduced consumer demand for goods and services due to fear associated with SARS. Two studies reported a reduction in total healthcare resource use during the peak of the SARS epidemic in Taiwan, due to people’s fears of SARS. Added value of this study To our knowledge, this study presents the first cost-of-illness study of COVID-19. The main cost components considered include identification, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of COVID-19, compulsory quarantine and productivity loss for all affected residents in China during the study period. The total societal cost of COVID-19 was estimated to be 383 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to 2.7% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019. Healthcare costs accounted for only 0.2% of societal cost for COVID-19, while productivity losses accounted for 99.8%. The majority of productivity losses (99.7%) were attributable to people who were not considered to have had COVID-19 but experienced lost working time due to the government policies in controlling population movement. Implications of all the available evidence Our findings suggest that the cost of COVID-19 is much larger than the cost of SARS or MERS. Productivity losses far exceeded the healthcare cost of managing COVID-19 patients. Future research is urgently required on the cost-effectiveness of different control measures of COVID-19 (e.g. policies regarding reducing working days, travel restrictions, quarantine and isolation), and development of interventions which can help to maintain the productivity of healthy population during the pandemic.

Aims To compare the cost-effectiveness of stereotactic ablative body radiation therapy (SABR) with radiofrequency ablation and surgery in adult patients with metastatic liver cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and methods Two patient cohorts were assessed: liver oligometastases and HCC. For each patient cohort, a decision analytic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions over a 5-year horizon. A Markov process was embedded in the decision model to simulate the possible prognosis of cancer. Data on transition probabilities, survival, side-effects, quality of life and costs were obtained from published sources and the SABR Commissioning through Evaluation (CtE) scheme. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with respect to quality-adjusted life-years. The robustness of the results was examined in a sensitivity analysis. Analyses were conducted from a National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective. Results In the base case analysis, which assumed that all three interventions were associated with the same cancer progression rates and mortality rates, SABR was the most cost-effective intervention for both patient cohorts. This conclusion was sensitive to the cancer progression rate, mortality rate and cost of interventions. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the probability that SABR is cost-effective was 57% and 50% in liver oligometastases and HCC, respectively. Conclusions Our results indicate a potential for SABR to be cost-effective for patients with liver oligometastases and HCC. This finding supports further investigation in clinical trials directly comparing SABR with surgery and radiofrequency ablation.

BackgroundMost adults do not meet the recommended intake of five portions per day of fruit and vegetables (F&V) in England, but economic analyses of structural policies to change diet are sparse.MethodsUsing published data from official statistics and meta-epidemiological studies, we estimated the deaths, years-of-life lost (YLL) and the healthcare costs attributable to consumption of F&V below the recommended five portions per day by English adults. Then, we estimated the cost-effectiveness from governmental and societal perspectives of three policies: a universal 10% subsidy on F&V, a targeted 30% subsidy for low-income households and a social marketing campaign (SMC).FindingsConsumption of F&V below the recommended five portions a day accounted for 16 321 [10 091–23 516] deaths and 238 767 [170 350–311 651] YLL in England in 2017, alongside £705 951 [398 761–1 061 559] million in healthcare costs. All policies would increase consumption and reduce the disease burden attributable to low intake of F&V. From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £22 891 [22 300–25 079], £16 860 [15 589–19 763] and £25 683 [25 237–28 671] per life-year saved for the universal subsidy, targeted subsidy and SMC, respectively. At a threshold of £20 000 per life-year saved, the likelihood that the universal subsidy, the targeted subsidy and the SMC were cost-effective was 84%, 19% and 5%, respectively. The targeted subsidy would additionally reduce inequalities.ConclusionsLow intake of F&V represents a heavy health and care burden in England. All dietary policies can improve consumption of F&V, but only a targeted subsidy to low-income households would most likely be cost-effective.

Objectives Selective dorsal rhizotomy (SDR) has gained interest as an intervention to reduce spasticity and pain, and improve quality of life and mobility in children with cerebral palsy mainly affecting the legs (diplegia). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of SDR in England. Methods Cost-effectiveness was quantified with respect to Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM-66) and the pain dimension of the Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life questionnaire for Children (CPQOL-Child). Data on outcomes following SDR over two years were drawn from a national evaluation in England which included 137 children, mean age 6.6 years at surgery. The incremental impact of SDR on GMFM-66 was determined through comparison with data from a historic Canadian cohort not undergoing SDR. Another single centre provided data on hospital care over ten years for 15 children undergoing SDR at a mean age of 7.0 years, and a comparable cohort managed without SDR. The incremental impact of SDR on pain was determined using a before and after comparison using data from the national evaluation. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Incremental costs of SDR were determined as the difference in costs over 5 years for the patients undergoing SDR and those managed without SDR. Uncertainty was quantified using bootstrapping and reported as the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Results In the base case, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for SDR are £1,382 and £903 with respect to a unit improvement in GMFM-66 and the pain dimension of CPQOL-Child, respectively. Inclusion of data to 10 years indicates SDR is cheaper than management without SDR. Incremental costs and ICERs for SDR rose in sensitivity analysis applying an alternative regression model to cost data. Conclusions Data on outcomes from a large observational study of SDR and long-term cost data on children who did and did not receive SDR indicates SDR is cost-effective.

Background Extrapolation of time-to-event data can be a critical component of cost-effectiveness analysis. Objectives To contrast the value of external data on treatment effects as a selection aid in model fitting to the clinical data or for the direct extrapolation of survival. Methods We assume the existence of external summary data on both treatment and control and consider two scenarios: availability of external individual patient data (IPD) on the control only and an absence of external IPD. We describe how the summary data can be used to extrapolate survival or to assess the plausibility of extrapolations of the clinical data. We assess the merit of either approach using a comparison of cemented and cementless total hip replacement as a case study. Merit is judged by comparing incremental net benefit (INB) obtained in scenarios with incomplete IPD with that derived from modeling external IPD on both treatment and control. Results Measures of fit with the external summary data did not identify survival model specifications that best estimated INB. Addition of external IPD for the control only did not improve estimates of INB. Extrapolation of survival using the external summary data comparing treatment and control improved estimates of INB. Conclusions Our case study indicates that summary data comparing treatment and control are more valuable than IPD limited to the control when extrapolating event rates for cost-effectiveness analysis. These data are best exploited in direct extrapolation of event rates rather than as an aid to select extrapolations on the basis of the clinical data.

SUMMARY Objectives To evaluate the cost‐effectiveness of changing opening times, introducing a donor health report and reducing the minimum inter‐donation interval for donors attending static centres. Background Evidence is required about the effect of changes to the blood collection service on costs and the frequency of donation. Methods/Materials This study estimated the effect of changes to the blood collection service in England on the annual number of whole‐blood donations by current donors. We used donors' responses to a stated preference survey, donor registry data on donation frequency and deferral rates from the INTERVAL trial. Costs measured were those anticipated to differ between strategies. We reported the cost per additional unit of blood collected for each strategy versus current practice. Strategies with a cost per additional unit of whole blood less than £30 (an estimate of the current cost of collection) were judged likely to be cost‐effective. Results In static donor centres, extending opening times to evenings and weekends provided an additional unit of whole blood at a cost of £23 and £29, respectively. Introducing a health report cost £130 per additional unit of blood collected. Although the strategy of reducing the minimum inter‐donation interval had the lowest cost per additional unit of blood collected (£10), this increased the rate of deferrals due to low haemoglobin (Hb). Conclusion The introduction of a donor health report is unlikely to provide a sufficient increase in donation frequency to justify the additional costs. A more cost‐effective change is to extend opening hours for blood collection at static centres.

Introduction: To assess whether an enhanced role for radiographers in reporting lung cancer chest radiographs is cost-effective. Methods: Costs and outcomes of chest radiograph reporting by reporting radiographer or by a radiologist were compared using a decision tree model. The model followed patients from an initial chest radiographs for suspected lung cancer to the provision of cancer care in positive cases. Sensitivity and specificity of reporting for radiographers and radiologists were derived from a recent trial. Treatment costs and quality adjusted life expectancy were estimated over five years for those diagnosed. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to test the robustness of inference to parameter uncertainty. Results: For 1000 simulated patients, radiographer reporting decreased detection costs by £8500 and detected 10.3 more cases at initial presentation. After including treatment costs and outcomes, radiographer reporting remained cheaper than radiologist reporting and resulted in 1.4 additional QALYs per 1000 screened patients. Probabilistic analysis indicated a 98% likelihood that radiographer reporting is cheaper and more effective than radiologist reporting after inclusion of treatment costs and outcomes. Conclusion: Radiographer reporting is a cost-effective alternative to radiologist reporting in lung cancer diagnosis. Further work is needed to support the adoption of radiographer's reporting pathway in diagnosis of lung cancer suspected patients.

Introduction: Schizophrenia is a chronic and debilitating mental illness characterised by periods of relapse that require resource intensive management. Quantifying the cost of relapse is central to the evaluation of the cost effectiveness of treating schizophrenia. Objectives: We aimed to undertake a comprehensive search of the available literature on the cost of relapse. Methods: We performed a search on multiple databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and Health Management Information Consortium) for any study reporting a cost of relapse or data from which such a cost could be calculated. Costs are reported in 2015 international dollars. Results: We found 16 studies reporting costs associated with relapse over a defined period of time and identified a cost associated with hospitalisation for relapse in 43 studies. Eight clinical decision analyses also provided cost estimates. Studies from the US report excess costs of relapse of $6033–$32,753 (2015 Purchasing Power Parity dollars [PPP$]) over periods of 12–15 months. European studies report excess costs of $8665–$18,676 (2015 PPP$) over periods of 6–12 months. Estimates of the cost of hospitalisation for relapse are more diverse, and associated with marked differences in typical length of stay across jurisdictions. Conclusions: Wide ranges in the estimated cost of relapse may reflect differences in sample section and relapse definition as well as practice styles and differences in resource costs. Selection of the most appropriate cost estimate should be guided by the definition of relapse and the analysis setting.

OBJECTIVES: Protest responses, whereby respondents refuse to state the value they place on the health gain, are commonly encountered in contingent valuation (CV) studies, and they tend to be excluded from analyses. Such an approach will be biased if protesters differ from non-protesters on characteristics that predict their responses. The Heckman selection model has been commonly used to adjust for protesters, but its underlying assumptions may be implausible in this context. We present a multiple imputation (MI) approach to appropriately address protest responses in CV studies, and compare it with the Heckman selection model. METHODS: This study exploits data from the multinational EuroVaQ study, which surveyed respondents' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY). Here, our simulation study assesses the relative performance of MI and Heckman selection models across different realistic settings grounded in the EuroVaQ study, including scenarios with different proportions of missing data and non-response mechanisms. We then illustrate the methods in the EuroVaQ study for estimating mean WTP for a QALY gain. RESULTS: We find that MI provides lower bias and mean squared error compared with the Heckman approach across all considered scenarios. The simulations suggest that the Heckman approach can lead to considerable underestimation or overestimation of mean WTP due to violations in the normality assumption, even after log-transforming the WTP responses. The case study illustrates that protesters are associated with a lower mean WTP for a QALY gain compared with non-protesters, but that the results differ according to method for handling protesters. CONCLUSIONS: MI is an appropriate method for addressing protest responses in CV studies.

Objective Recent research indicates considerable heterogeneity in the provision of memory assessment services (MAS). However, little is known on the extent of variation in the costs of the services MAS provide. We investigated the costs of supporting patients with suspected dementia, including assessment and support over the following 6 months. Methods Clinic costs were estimated on the basis of an organisational survey reporting staff roll, grade and activities. Costs of primary health and social care were estimated from questionnaire data reported by carers of patients at baseline, 3 and 6 months after referral. Results Mean monthly staff costs at MAS were £73 000. Imaging at assessment costs an additional £3500 per month. Monthly clinic cost per new patient assessed varied from £320 to £5400 across clinics. Additional primary health and social care costs of £130–220 a month between baseline and 6 months were reported by carers. Costs of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments reported by carers were small. Informal care costs dwarfed health and social care costs when valued at a modest unit cost. The overall mean cost of supporting a patient for 6 months varied from £1600 to £2500 dependent on assumptions regarding the proportion of MAS intervention and review costs accrued at 6 months. Conclusions There is considerable variation in the intensity and associated costs of services provided by MAS. Further research should ascertain to what extent such variation is associated with differences in patient outcomes.

Objectives Patient preferences are increasingly important in informing clinical and policy decisions. Health-state utility values (HSUVs) are quantitative measures of people’s preferences over different health states. In schizophrenia, there is no clarity about HSUVs across the symptoms’ severity spectrum. This meta-analysis aims to synthesize the literature on HSUVs in people with schizophrenia. Methods We searched Medline, PsycInfo, Embase, EconLit, The Cochrane Library, and specialized databases. The studies reporting HSUVs in people with schizophrenia were selected and pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. The primary outcome was the mean HSUV obtained from participants. Results A total of 54 studies involving 87 335 participants were included. The pooled estimate using direct elicitation was a mean HSUV of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.70-0.88) for mild symptomatic states, 0.69 (95% CI: 0.54-0.85) in moderate states, and 0.34 (95% CI: 0.13-0.56) in severe states. Studies using indirect techniques resulted in a pooled mean HSUV of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78) applying the EuroQol 5-dimension, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62-0.71) in the Short-Form 6-dimension, and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.57-0.61) using the Quality of Well-Being scale. All the estimates resulted in considerable heterogeneity, partially reduced by meta-regression. Conclusion Our findings suggest that the severity of psychotic symptoms has an important effect on HSUVs in schizophrenia, with values mirroring patients with disabling physical conditions such as cancer and stroke. Decision makers should be aware of these results when including people’s preferences in trials, models, and policy decisions.