Search

Many coastal areas host rich marine ecosystems and are also centers of economic activities, including fishing, shipping and recreation. Due to the socioeconomic and ecological importance of these areas, predicting relevant indicators of the ecosystem state on sub-seasonal to interannual timescales is gaining increasing attention. Depending on the application, forecasts may be sought for variables and indicators spanning physics (e.g., sea level, temperature, currents), chemistry (e.g., nutrients, oxygen, pH), and biology (from viruses to top predators). Many components of the marine ecosystem are known to be influenced by leading modes of climate variability, which provide a physical basis for predictability. However, prediction capabilities remain limited by the lack of a clear understanding of the physical and biological processes involved, as well as by insufficient observations for forecast initialization and verification. The situation is further complicated by the influence of climate change on ocean conditions along coastal areas, including sea level rise, increased stratification, and shoaling of oxygen minimum zones. Observations are thus vital to all aspects of marine forecasting: statistical and/or dynamical model development, forecast initialization, and forecast validation, each of which has different observational requirements, which may be also specific to the study region. Here, we use examples from United States (U.S.) coastal applications to identify and describe the key requirements for an observational network that is needed to facilitate improved process understanding, as well as for sustaining operational ecosystem forecasting. We also describe new holistic observational approaches, e.g., approaches based on acoustics, inspired by Tara Oceans or by landscape ecology, which have the potential to support and expand ecosystem modeling and forecasting activities by bridging global and local observations.

Present-day global mean sea level rise is caused by ocean thermal expansion, ice mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, as well as changes in terrestrial water storage. For that reason, sea level is one of the best indicators of climate change as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to internal and external forcing factors. Monitoring the global mean sea level allows detecting changes (e.g., in trend or acceleration) in one or more components. Besides, assessing closure of the sea level budget allows us to check whether observed sea level change is indeed explained by the sum of changes affecting each component. If not, this would reflect errors in some of the components or missing contributions not accounted for in the budget. Since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, a precise 27-year continuous record of sea level change is available. It has allowed major advances in our understanding of how the Earth is responding to climate change. The last two decades are also marked by the launch of the GRACE satellite gravity mission and the development of the Argo network of profiling floats. GRACE space gravimetry allows the monitoring of mass redistributions inside the Earth system, in particular land ice mass variations as well as changes in terrestrial water storage and in ocean mass, while Argo floats allow monitoring sea water thermal expansion due to the warming of the oceans. Together, satellite altimetry, space gravity, and Argo measurements provide unprecedented insight into the magnitude, spatial variability, and causes of present-day sea level change. With this observational network, we are now in a position to address many outstanding questions that are important to planning for future sea level rise. Here, we detail the network for observing sea level and its components, underscore the importance of these observations, and emphasize the need to maintain current systems, improve their sensors, and supplement the observational network where gaps in our knowledge remain.

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.

A global ocean observing system for the physical climate system, comprising both in situ and satellite components, was conceived largely at the Ocean Observations conference in St. Raphael, France, in October 1999. It was recognized that adequate information was not available on the state of the world ocean or its regional variations to address a range of important societal needs. Subsequent work by the marine carbon community and others in the ocean science and operational communities led to an agreed international plan described in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Implementation Plan (GCOS-92, 2004). This foundation observing system was designed to meet climate requirements, but also supports weather prediction, global and coastal ocean prediction, marine hazard warning systems, transportation, marine environment and ecosystem monitoring, and naval applications. Here, we describe efforts made to reach the goals set out in the international plan. Thanks to these efforts, most of the ice-free ocean above 2000 m is now being observed systematically for the first time, and a global repeat hydrographic survey and selected transport measurements supplement these networks.The system is both integrated and composite. It depends upon in situ and satellite networks that measure the same variable using different sensors. In this way, optimum use is made of all available platforms and sensors to maximize coverage and attain maximum accuracy. Wherever feasible, observations are transmitted in real time or near real time to maximize their utility, from short-term ocean forecasting to estimation of century-long trends. Because our historical knowledge of oceanic variability is limited, we are learning about the sampling requirements and needed accuracies as the system is implemented and exploited. The system will evolve as technology and knowledge improve. The biggest challenge for the greater oceanographic community—including both research and operational components—will be demonstrating impacts and benefits sufficient to justify the funds needed to complete the observing system, as well as to sustain its funding for the long term.

Pacific seafarers developed indigenous navigational techniques to voyage between islands. In the Marshall Islands, navigators remotely sense land by detecting how islands disrupt swells. A recent project to revitalize Marshallese voyaging aimed to understand the science of wave navigation. Local wave concepts are described based on anthropological fieldwork with surviving navigators, including interviews and experience sailing with them. The wave transformation processes that give rise to these patterns are examined using navigators' demonstrations at sea, wave buoy measurements, satellite imagery, and wave model simulations. The scientific data account for one signal used by navigators to remotely detect land. Crossing wave trains extend tens of kilometers in the lees of islands, which can be simulated as refraction of the easterly trade wind swell. Navigators identified a superposition of incident swells with reflected waves 40 km upstream of islands. These reflected waves were too weak to be detected by the wave buoy, but they are conceptualized similarly within indigenous and scientific frameworks. Navigators described another pattern as a wayfaring link between distant atolls. This pattern does not clearly relate to a wave transformation process, suggesting that Marshallese navigators also use concepts of the ocean that do not easily translate into oceanographic terms.