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NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops and maintains a number of modeling tools to analyze and simulate the orbital debris environment. One of the most important products produced by the NASA ODPO is the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This model can be used by satellite designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The ODPO is currently working on the next generation, designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and the ability to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. A new addition will be a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, including DebriSat. ORDEM is primarily based on dedicated debris measurements, such as by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, and observations of geosynchronous orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). In addition to ORDEM, the ODPO also maintains other models, such as the LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model for studies of long-term evolution of Earth’s debris environment, with the ability to study various mitigation and remediation strategies. Another model, the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM), is used to analyze how satellite breakups may affect critical space missions (such as the ISS) on short notice. In addition to these models, the ODPO maintains other secondary models used to model satellite explosions and collisions, analyze radar, optical, and in situ data, and to model such things as solar activity and orbit evolution. In this presentation, a survey of these models will be presented, showing how the different models are used together to create a comprehensive picture of Earth’s debris environment.

For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to collect data on the orbital debris environment using the Haystack radar. These measurements are used to characterize the small debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO), down to a noise-limited size of approximately 5 mm—depending on altitude. The Haystack radar operated by MIT/LL underwent upgrades starting in May 2010, with operations resuming in 2014 as the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR). HUSIR is the primary source of data used by the ODPO to statistically sample orbital debris in the 5-mm to 10-cm size regime in LEO and is a key source of data to build and validate the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model. In this presentation, we will present recent HUSIR results and show how NASA uses them to understand the orbital debris environment.

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar (Goldstone) since 1993 to characterize orbital debris (OD) in low Earth orbit too small to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Operated by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Goldstone can measure OD as small as 3 mm at 1000 km altitude and lower. Goldstone is a bistatic radar that for 25 years used Deep Space Station (DSS)-14 as a transmitter and DSS-15 as a receiver. In early 2018, DSS-15 was decommissioned and replaced with DSS-25 (and occasionally DSS-26) of the Deep Space Network Apollo Cluster. The increased baseline between DSS-14 and DSS-25 significantly reduced the instantaneous altitude coverage of the bistatic beam overlap. Initial measurements in 2018 were focused around 800 km, which has approximately the highest flux of sub-centimeter debris. In 2019, DSS-14 was offline for maintenance, and the ODPO designed an annual survey observation plan to efficiently sample altitudes from 700 km to 1000 km, since many NASA satellites fly in this range. This paper discusses the observation plan, including the development of the pointings, a refinement of the altitudes of interest, and an analysis of the effects of random pointing errors on beam overlap. Additionally, results from measurements taken in 2020 and 2021 are presented, showing that not only is the observation plan effective at sampling 700 km to 1000 km altitude, but it is also producing the most sensitive terrestrial radar measurements at these altitudes to date.

Two laboratory-based impact tests have been conducted to develop and extend the capability of NASA satellite breakup models. The first experiment, the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), was conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA in 1992. It employed a fully functional U.S. Navy Transit spacecraft, fabricated from materials commonly used in the 1960s. SOCIT fragmentation data formed the basis of the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). A second experiment, DebriSat, was conducted in 2014 by the DebriSat consortium: the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the United States Space Force Space Systems Command, formerly the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex, and the University of Florida. This impact test was performed on a high-fidelity mock-up satellite assembled from modern components. Data from both experiments are expected to contribute to the next-generation models for on-orbit breakup analyses, long-term environment predictions, and debris risk assessment. This paper uses the direct statistical sampling of the SOCIT and DebriSat data ensembles to model an on-orbit breakup event, rather than the analytic expressions estimated from the samples in the SSBM and its predecessor. This direct method involves drawing fragments (i.e., sampling with replacement) from each fragmentation data-subset containing mass, shape category, material density, characteristic length, mass, and cross-sectional area. As part of the sampling process, the properties of sampled fragment data (e.g., area-to-mass ratios) are numerically checked to ensure they do not contain unrealistic quantities. The process to simulate a breakup cloud composed of fragments from SOCIT and DebriSat datasets is discussed. The methodology for ensuring that conservation of overall mass of the sampled fragment cloud under this sampling approach is highlighted. Finally, the results are compared with simulated clouds generated from SSBM for specific historical breakup events.

This National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.2 Software User Guide accompanies delivery of the latest upgraded version of the model, ORDEM 3.2. The user guide also provides a top-level program description and a list of capabilities. It includes descriptions of runtime error and information codes, input/output file formats, runtimes for different orbit configurations, and how to use uncertainty files. ORDEM 3.2 supersedes the previous NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) models – ORDEM 3.0 (Stansbery, et al. 2014) and ORDEM2000 (Liou, et al. 2002). The availability of new sensor and in situ data, re-analysis of older data, and development of new analytical techniques has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. An upgraded graphical user interface (GUI) is integrated with the software. This upgraded GUI uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. For example, these range from the conventional flux vs. average debris size (or altitude bin) for chosen analysis orbits (or views) to the more complex color-contoured, two-dimensional (2-D) directional flux diagrams in local spacecraft elevation and azimuth. The current model, ORDEM 3.2, supports spacecraft as well as telescope/radar project assessments. ORDEM 3.2 contains updated debris populations covering low Earth orbit (LEO, up to 2000 km altitude) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO, up to 40,000 km altitude) and can assess debris calculations up to year 2050, extending coverage past the previous limit of 2035 in ORDEM 3.0. Although populations differ from its predecessor, ORDEM 3.2 is functionally the same as ORDEM 3.0 and can support ORDEM 3.0 projects through backward compatibility.

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) and Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) team have coordinated to better understand the risks to upper stages and spacecraft from non-spherical orbital debris. It is well understood that fragmentation (collision or explosion) events in orbit produce fragments of various materials, sizes, and shapes. To further characterize these parameters, the ODPO is developing the next-generation Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 4.0 to include orbital debris shape distributions. Ground-based assets, such as radar and optical sensors, can provide size estimates and some insight into material based on radar return or optical filter photometry/spectroscopy, respectively. Characterizing an object’s shape requires more laboratory analyses to infer how shape affects these measurements. More importantly, in addition to size and material/density, the shape of fragments in orbit will alter the ballistic limit equations used in orbital debris risk assessments with NASA’s Bumper Code. The ODPO plans to release ORDEM 4.0 in the coming years. Performing ground-based laboratory impact tests on high-fidelity spacecraft mockups provides the means to directly measure size, mass, material/density, and shape of fragments, all key parameters needed to characterize real-world break up events. The DebriSat test, the results of which are provided, showcases the details of this type of experiment. The goal of this collaborative research between the ODPO and the HVIT team is to include a shape parameter in the environmental and breakup models used to assess risk for various space structures. This paper examines ground-based laboratory impact tests and the associated fragment shape categories. Provided these defined shapes, the approach is simplified by assuming a right circular cylinder (RCC) approximation with varying length-to-diameter ratios. Highlights of impact tests conducted by the HVIT team using non-spherical projectiles based on the RCC approximation are presented. Hydrocode simulations have also been performed to expand on the complexity of variations with non-spherical projectiles. Lastly, ray-tracing simulations of various RCCs of known material are provided to support the ongoing research on optical reflectance distributions with known shapes and to highlight how this may modify the current optical size estimation model. The status and plan forward are outlined for NASA's orbital debris shape effect investigation using a multidisciplinary approach by the ODPO and the HVIT team.

This report summarizes radar measurement data of the orbital debris (OD) environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) from the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) operated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) and provided to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO).

With recent plans to revisit the Moon by robotic and crewed spacecraft, there has been a renewed interest in understanding the ejecta environment on the Moon and other airless bodies. Meteoroid and asteroid impacts can excavate large amounts of material from the surface and, above an airless body, can send this material long distances on (essentially) ballistic orbits. This ejecta, while typically traveling slower than the impactor, can nevertheless achieve high enough speeds to endanger surface operations. Accurate knowledge of this phenomenon is necessary in order to design appropriate shielding for human activities, both for activities on the surface of the Moon and for orbiters in near-lunar space. This phenomenon is also important in the transport of particles above other Solar System objects, such as Jovian satellites, where this ejecta creates a kind of ever-present “halo” of particles around the gravitating body. While Monte Carlo techniques have been successfully used to model this environment, there are useful analytic expressions, developed for use in modeling the meteoroid environment, that can be used to describe this environment as well. Such analytic tools can shed light on the altitude, velocity, and directionality of these ejecta environments.

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 Model Verification and Validation (V&V) document accompanies the delivery of the latest ORDEM 3.1 model (Vavrin & Manis, 2019) and provides a detailed description of the V&V activities used to verify that the model was built correctly and validate the model against independent, real world sources of data obtained from sampling the orbital debris environment. This ORDEM 3.1 Model V&V document, along with the related ORDEM 3.1 Model Process document – which covers details of the mathematical, statistical, and physical basis of the model – are intended to inform credibility assessments, risk analyses, uncertainty characterizations, and other applications derived from use of the model by the ORDEM 3.1 user community.

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Model Review assessment team was tasked with reviewing the proposed lunar ejecta model Meteoroid Model of Secondary Ejecta (MeMoSeE), developed at Marshall Space Flight Center, and to review the model inputs to the SLS-SPEC-159 Cross-Program Design Specification for Natural Environments document to be used by NASA’s Exploration Systems Development and Artemis Programs for future lunar surface system design. This report contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has utilized the Goldstone bistatic radar since the early1990’s to statistically characterize the low Earth orbit(LEO) sub-centimeter population. The radar provides a unique capability to detect orbital debris population sizes down to an approximate size of 3 mm for altitudes less than 1000 km, and even smaller sizes at lower altitudes. Due to the limited number of hours that are available from this radar each year, it is often used to validate measurements obtained by other radar data sources in the range of orbital debris sizes where the radar systems have an overlap. Additionally, the Goldstone radar provides significantly improved sensitivity than is available from other ground-based radar data sources, which enables it to observe orbital debris populations that, although smaller, still represent a significant risk to both robotic and human missions in LEO. Over the decade of observations from 2007 to2017, a number of significant on-orbit events have occurred including the anti-satellite test againstFengyun-1C, and the accidental collision between Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33. The orbital debris flux as measured by the Goldstone radar over this important time period is reviewed in this paper, as well as the evolution of the environment over the ensuing years since these events. In addition, the measurements provided by this radar in the years prior to the deployment of large constellations into the environment, as well as the significant increase in missions and mission participants in recent years, is of interest since it provides a baseline for monitoring the effects of these and other changes in the coming years. In 2018, the Goldstone bistatic orbital debris radar pointing geometry changed due to the decommissioning of the nearby receiver antenna, Deep Space Station (DSS) 15, located approximately 500 m from the transmitter antenna. The historical combination of the DSS-14 transmitter and DSS-15receiver enabled all of LEO to be observed using a single pointing due to the close proximity of the two antenna stations and the resulting beam overlap of the bistatic radar geometry. The updated bistatic Goldstone geometry, following the decommissioning of DSS-15,utilizes one of the pair of DSS-25 or DSS-26 antennas that are located approximately 10 km from the transmitter station. The resulting beam overlap with this pointing is such that in LEO, only a small fraction of LEO altitude coverage is observable at one time. Given the operational change of the radar, it is of interest to review the data collected by the original Goldstone bistatic radar over the final decade preceding this change.

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies primarily on ground-based radar measurements to characterize the distribution of small debris, down to approximately 3 mm depending upon altitude and the sensor used, in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since the early 1990’s, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory (LL) has been collecting radar measurements for the NASA ODPO under agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense. The Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) is the primary ground-based radar sensor used by the ODPO and provides data on orbital debris down to an approximate size of 5.5 mm below 1000km altitude using the NASA size estimation model (SEM). Since orbital debris of this size are a significant risk to both human and robotic missions in LEO, the sensitivity of this radar makes it a high-value sensor. The NASA ODPO radar measurements are conducted on a continual basis for monitoring and enabling modeling of the orbital debris environment over time. HUSIR observations from 2019 are the most recent snapshot of the environment that has been measured and analyzed to date. In recent years, HUSIR measurements indicated relatively stable populations for the orbital debris objects that it is able to detect. In 2019, several interesting events happened on-orbit, including the start of large constellation deployments into LEO, as well as the Indian anti-satellite test with Microsat-R (International Designator 2019-006A, U.S. Strategic Command Space Surveillance Network catalog number 43947). Due to these events, coupled with a general increase in the number of missions and participants launching missions in recent years, continual monitoring is necessary to determine the effects of this increased activity on the orbital debris environment. This paper will explore the results of the 2019 HUSIR radar measurements, including above-average flux measurements at lower LEO altitudes and the evolution of the flux during the time of observations.