Author: "Mark Howells" - Searchworks@Jio Institute Digital Library Search Results

276 results on '"Mark Howells"'

1. Transport starter data kit: Historical passenger and freight transport data for selected countries in Africa, Asia, and South AmericaZenodo

Author: Naomi Tan, Robert Ambunda, Nikola Medimorec, Angel Cortez, Agustina Krapp, Erin Maxwell, John Harrison, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Transport, Transport systems, MAED, OSeMOSYS, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: The demand for data-driven models to inform sustainable transportation planning has become more important as countries address the complexities of urban mobility. However, data collection and curation are time-consuming and can be challenging due to data inaccessibility and inaccuracy. The Transport Starter Data Kit therefore aims to address these challenges, offering a one-stop-shop for transport modelling-related data. The Kit contains historical annual data (1990–2021) on passenger and freight activity, energy intensities, load factors, and vehicle stock, segregated by mode and fuel where available. Additionally, population and GDP data, which influence transport activity, are included. The value of the dataset lies not only in the range of variables it offers but also in the compilation from multiple authoritative sources, providing researchers, consultants, and policymakers interested in data-based transport modelling with a foundational base for their model development. By adopting, adapting, and applying the data, clear policies may be developed which can underpin the necessary finances for sustainable transport development.
Published: 2024
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2. A dataset for energy demand and supply modelling in Sierra Leone

Author: Fynn Kiley, David Caulker, William Collier, Neve Fields, William Blyth, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Electricity, Hydropower, Grid, Data, MAED, OSeMOSYS, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: Energy systems modelling plays a pivotal role in understanding and optimizing complex energy systems. By integrating various factors such as energy demand, supply, infrastructure, and environmental considerations, energy systems modelling provides valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. This can be key to informing stakeholder and policy decisions and facilitate the mobilisation of capital and market development to support the development of the energy sector. This article presents the data, assumptions, and related calculations used for the development of a national scale power system model for Sierra Leone. The focus of the model was a techno-economic analysis of specific hydropower expansion plans. Where possible, this data has been collected from publicly available sources such as scientific literature, feasibility studies, international databases, data from existing modelling efforts in Sierra Leone, and local stakeholders. The collection of the data, development of the model, and creation of scenarios was done in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy in Sierra Leone and verified by a broad range of stakeholders.The following paper outlines the key data presented in the full database which can be accessed through the link found in the Specifications Table. The link also contains the Reference Energy System (RES) used in this study.
Published: 2024
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3. The global and national energy systems techno-economic (GNESTE) database: Cost and performance data for electricity generation and storage technologies

Author: Luke Hatton, Nathan Johnson, Lara Dixon, Bosi Mosongo, Savanha De Kock, Andrew Marquard, Mark Howells, and Iain Staffell
Subjects: Electricity generation, Electricity storage, Capital costs, Operating costs, Financing costs, Efficiency, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: Power sector and energy systems models are widely used to explore the impacts of demographic, socio-economic or policy changes on the cost and emissions of electricity generation. Technology cost and performance data are essential inputs to such models. Despite the ubiquity and importance of these parameters, there is no standardised database which collates the variety of values from across the literature, so modellers must collect them independently each time they populate or update model inputs, leading to duplicated efforts and inconsistencies which can profoundly influence model results. Technology cost and performance varies between countries, regions and over time, meaning that data must be country- or region-specific and frequently updated. Values also vary widely between sources, so obtaining a broad consensus view is critical. Here, we present a database which collates historical, current, and future cost and performance data and assumptions for the six most prominent electricity generation technologies; coal, gas, hydroelectric, nuclear, solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power, which together accounted for over 92 % of installed generation capacity in 2022. In addition, we provide the same data for utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS), regarded as critical to the integration of variable renewables such as wind and solar PV. The data are global in scope but with regional and national specificity, covers the years 2015 through to 2050, and span 5518 datapoints from 56 sources. The database enables modellers to select and justify model input data and provides a benchmark for comparing assumptions and projections to other sources across the literature to validate model inputs and outputs. It is designed to be easily updated with new sources of data, ensuring its utility, comprehensiveness, and broad applicability in future.
Published: 2024
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4. Bridging the Gap: Virtual Reality as a Tool for De-Escalation Training in Disability Support Settings

Author: Ryan Hsu, Connor McCabe, Caroline Ellison, Mark Howells, and Tobias Loetscher
Subjects: disability support, virtual reality, training, de-escalation, empathy, validity, Technology, Science
Abstract: Managing complex behaviors in disability support settings requires competent de-escalation skills. However, the current training methods often lack sufficient opportunities for realistic practice. This study details a three-stage development and evaluation of a virtual reality (VR) application for disability support staff to safely build de-escalation skills through simulated interactions. The first phase involved creating VR prototype scenarios depicting escalations with adolescent clients. Next, 12 disability support experts conducted content validation by refining the scenarios to confirm appropriateness and realism. Finally, a pilot study tested the tool’s usability and examined the initial construct validity in 20 participants. The prototype achieved high usability ratings (average 81.0 (SD 10.7) on the System Usability Scale). Additionally, a positive correlation between VR performance and empathy levels, as measured using the Toronto Empathy Questionnaire, was found (Pearson’s r = 0.487, p = 0.035). The promising results highlight the VR application’s potential as a transformative training tool. Future research should expand scenario diversity and compare VR with traditional methods to establish its efficacy in diverse settings and offer a path to enhance staff and student capabilities in challenging environments.
Published: 2024
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5. Decarbonising the power sector of the Dominican Republic: An approach from electric mobility transition

Author: Jarrizon Quevedo, Idalberto Herrera Moya, Deyslen Mariano-Hernandez, Giuseppe Sbriz-Zeitun, Carla Cannone, Mark Howells, Rudolf Yeganyan, and Miguel Aybar-Mejía
Subjects: Decarbonisation, Energy modelling, Energy transition pathways, OSeMOSYS, Renewable energy, SIDS, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: The electrical power and land transportation systems of the Dominican Republic are facing significant challenges due to growing demand in both sectors. These two systems are responsible for around 62% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With the deployment of electric mobility, the power and transport sectors can synergise and contribute significantly to long-term sustainable planning. This article analyses the impact of the penetration of electric mobility programmed by the Dominican Republic's National Institute of Transit and Land Transport (INTRANT), the country's goal of reducing GHG emissions by 27% by 2030 and the decarbonisation process. Using the open-source modelling system OSeMOSYS, four scenarios are built to explore strategies that contribute to sustainable development in the long term. Meeting climate change commitments necessitates that all coal-fired plants in the country will be closed or transformed by 2040. Despite the positive role of electric mobility in reducing GHG, decarbonising the electricity sector while facing the energy crisis requires investments totalling around 16 billion USD. Failing to make these investments will incur expenses of approximately 6 billion USD on the user's side in the period from 2024 to 2030 to cover energy needs; this figure represents more than 270% of the amount that should be invested in the electrical power system to supply these users' needs.
Published: 2024
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6. clicSAND for OSeMOSYS: A User-Friendly Interface Using Open-Source Optimisation Software for Energy System Modelling Analysis

Author: Carla Cannone, Lucy Allington, Nicki de Wet, Abhishek Shivakumar, Philip Goyns, Cesar Valderrama, Alexander Kell, Fernando Antonio Plazas Niño, Reema Mohanty, Vedran Kapor, Jarrad Wright, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, Long Seng To, John Harrison, and Mark Howells
Subjects: energy modelling, OSeMOSYS, open-source, user interface, clicSAND, energy planning, Technology
Abstract: Energy modelling plays a crucial role in assisting governmental and policymaking bodies to strategise long-term investments within the context of energy transition. Among the well-established open-source optimisation models, OSeMOSYS—the Open-Source Energy Modelling System—stands out. This paper introduces clicSAND, a novel user interface designed for OSeMOSYS, aimed at reducing the learning curve and supporting novice energy modelers in efficiently conducting long-term investment analyses. clicSAND, freely available and open-source, features a user-friendly Excel interface for data input, integrated solvers, and a visualisation dashboard for result interpretation. The outcomes, projected up to 2070, hold the potential to inform policy decisions and mobilise financial resources for sustainable development endeavors, such as ensuring affordable and secure energy supply and mitigating climate change impacts. This advancement not only democratises access to energy modelling tools but also empowers policymakers and stakeholders to conduct thorough long-term investment analyses with ease. This paper elaborates on clicSAND’s key advantages, architecture, and functionalities. Additionally, it discusses the evolutionary journey from clicSAND 1.0 to 3.0, emphasising a commitment to continuous improvement and user-centric adaptation, thereby enhancing its utility and relevance. The inclusion of a South African case study, conducted during the EMP-A (Energy Modelling Platform for Africa) 2021 international capacity-building event, showcases clicSAND’s efficacy in facilitating knowledge transfer and skill development among inexperienced users, while providing a tangible example of its application in addressing specific regional energy challenges and policy contexts. Finally, current applications and future extensions of the software are also presented.
Published: 2024
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7. Long-Term Forecasting: A MAED Application for Sierra Leone’s Electricity Demand (2023–2050)

Author: Neve Fields, William Collier, Fynn Kiley, David Caulker, William Blyth, Mark Howells, and Ed Brown
Subjects: demand forecasting, MAED, energy modelling, energy planning, capacity building, electricity, Technology
Abstract: Sierra Leone is an electricity-poor country with one of the lowest electricity consumption per capita rates across sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, with ambitious targets to transform and stimulate its economy in the coming decades, energy demand forecasting becomes an integral component of successful energy planning. Through applying the MAED-D (version 2.0.0) demand software, this research study aims to generate Sierra Leone’s electricity demand forecasts from 2023 to 2050. Three novel scenarios (baseline-, high-, and low-demand) are developed based on socio-economic and technical parameters. The baseline scenario considers the current electricity sector as business-as-usual; the high-demand scenario examines an ambitious development future with increased economic diversification and mechanisation, and the low-demand scenario examines more reserved future development. The modelled scenario results project an increase in electricity demand ranging from 7.32 PJ and 12.23 PJ to 5.53 PJ for the baseline-, high-, and low-demand scenarios, respectively, by 2050. This paper provides a base set of best-available data needed to produce an electricity demand model for Sierra Leone which can be used as a capacity-building tool for in-country energy planning alongside further integration into data modelling pipelines.
Published: 2024
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8. Techno-economic dataset and assumptions for long-term energy systems modelling in the Dominican Republic (2024–2050)

Author: Jarrizon Quevedo, Idalberto Herrera Moya, Deyslen Mariano-Hernandez, Giuseppe Sbriz-Zeitun, Carla Cannone, Mark Howells, Rudolf Yeganyan, and Miguel Aybar-Mejía
Subjects: Renewable energy, OSeMOSYS, Energy transition pathways, Energy policy, Decarbonization, Energy modelling, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: The land transport sector, impacting fossil fuel consumption, has been selected as one of the sectors to apply decarbonization strategies. Energy systems modelling is an applied tool to evaluate scenarios and strategies that can be implemented in the transport sector to achieve energy transitions. These energy modelling tools need a dataset that allows the simulation of alternative scenarios of the systems. For this purpose, a collection and processing of technical-economic data is needed to ensure a quality input for simulation tools. This article presents a set of open data to create a model of the energy system of the Dominican Republic to assess alternative scenarios and develop strategies to achieve the energy transition in the land transport sector. This exercise is performed to support the energy planning policies of the country. Although the dataset is presented for the conditions of the Dominican Republic, the insight regarding data gathering and processing can be applied to other island countries. The data obtained are an open-access database of energy regulators, generation agents, and representatives of the generation, transmission, and distribution sector, as well as websites, databases of international organizations, scientific journals, and standards. Therefore, the data presented can be updated as the technical-economic information becomes public.
Published: 2024
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9. Interventions to improve primary healthcare in rural settings: A scoping review.

Author: Kris Aubrey-Basler, Krystal Bursey, Andrea Pike, Carla Penney, Bradley Furlong, Mark Howells, Harith Al-Obaid, James Rourke, Shabnam Asghari, and Amanda Hall
Subjects: Medicine, Science
Abstract: BackgroundResidents of rural areas have poorer health status, less healthy behaviours and higher mortality than urban dwellers, issues which are commonly addressed in primary care. Strengthening primary care may be an important tool to improve the health status of rural populations.ObjectiveSynthesize and categorize studies that examine interventions to improve rural primary care.Eligibility criteriaExperimental or observational studies published between January 1, 1996 and December 2022 that include an historical or concurrent control comparison.Sources of evidencePubmed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase.Charting methodsWe extracted and charted data by broad category (quality, access and efficiency), study design, country of origin, publication year, aim, health condition and type of intervention studied. We assigned multiple categories to a study where relevant.Results372 papers met our inclusion criteria, divided among quality (82%), access (20%) and efficiency (13%) categories. A majority of papers were completed in the USA (40%), Australia (15%), China (7%) or Canada (6%). 35 (9%) papers came from countries in Africa. The most common study design was an uncontrolled before-and-after comparison (32%) and only 24% of studies used randomized designs. The number of publications each year has increased markedly over the study period from 1-2/year in 1997-99 to a peak of 49 papers in 2017.ConclusionsDespite substantial inequity in health outcomes associated with rural living, very little attention is paid to rural primary care in the scientific literature. Very few studies of rural primary care use randomized designs.
Published: 2024
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10. Integrated climate, land, energy, and water framework to support the Nationally Determined Contribution updating process

Author: Mariana Rodríguez-Arce, Jam Angulo-Paniagua, Luis Victor-Gallardo, Jessica Roccard, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, Kane Alexander, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Integrated resource assessments, Nexus model, CLEWs, Sustainable development, Nationally determined contribution, Long-term strategy, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: System models help policymakers to produce net zero decarbonization pathways. In 2019, Costa Rica launched its National Decarbonization Plan (NDP) – constructed using a detailed Open-Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS-CR) model and simplified ones for non-energy sectors. The country then developed an integrated Climate, Land, Energy and Water (CLEW) model to capture synergies across sectors and guide future climate related processes. This resulted in the CLEW-CR model. In 2020, the country updated its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), deploying a highly participatory process supported by the CLEW-CR model to guide the discussions with over 150 stakeholders. This paper presents the framework adopted to develop the CLEW-CR model (from data collection to scenarios creation and cost-benefit analysis) and describes its use to align its NDCs with its NDP. Over 15 different scenarios were produced to inform the country's dialogue during the updating process of its NDCs demonstrating the flexibility of this model to support multiple policy questions. This paper shows that deploying the NDC by 2030 and the NDP by 2050 would result in a net economic benefit of $55 billion – about 85 % of Costa Rica's GDP, highlighting the economic viability of Costa Rica's commitment to a sustainable future.
Published: 2024
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11. Increasing spatial and temporal resolution in energy system optimisation model – The case of KenyaLegend for the gridded Low voltage calculations.

Author: Nandi Moksnes, Mark Howells, and William Usher
Subjects: Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: At the time of writing, 759 million people (2019) still lack access to electricity globally. It is important for energy planning to describe plausible pathways to achieve national goals, using tools such as energy systems models to explore scenarios and provide insight. Until recently, modelling energy access in countries with a low electrification rate was conducted at low spatial (e.g., national) and/or temporal resolutions (e.g., annual time slices or ‘overnight’ electrification). In this paper, we develop methods in an open-source computational workflow with high spatial resolution in an open-source energy systems optimisation model. We use Kenya as our case application where approx. 16 million people still lack access to electricity (2019). One reference scenario and two diagnostic hypothetical scenarios are developed to assess the model. The spatial resolution of approximately 40 by 40 km cells leads to 591 demand cells split between electrified and un-electrified population. The results show that in the reference scenario, the optimal supply option for the unelectrified population is PV panels and batteries. At the same, an oversupply of the planned power plants is observed. The model can capture dynamics between spatially explicit supply options and central power plants in one model.
Published: 2024
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12. Long-Term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition in Egypt’s Energy Sector

Author: Anna Gibson, Zen Makuch, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, Carla Cannone, and Mark Howells
Subjects: clean energy transition, renewable energy technologies, OSeMOSYS, Egypt, energy policy, Technology
Abstract: Egypt has the potential to generate a significant amount of energy from renewable technologies, in particular solar PV, concentrated solar power (CSP), and onshore and offshore wind. The energy sector is reliant on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, for electricity production and is at risk of locking itself into a high carbon pathway. Globally, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with national energy sectors is a target outlined in the UN’s Paris Agreement. To reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with a higher dependence on fossil fuels, Egypt must consider upscaling renewable energy technologies (RETs) to achieve a clean energy transition (CET). This research modelled six scenarios using clicSAND for OSeMOSYS to identify the technologies and policy target improvements that are needed to upscale RETs within Egypt’s energy sector. The results showed that solar PV and onshore wind are key technologies to be upscaled to contribute towards Egypt’s CET. The optimal renewable target is the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) target of 53% of electricity being sourced from RETs by 2030, which will cost USD 16.4 billion more up to 2035 than Egypt’s current Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) target of 42% by 2035; it also saves 732.0 MtCO2 over the entire modelling period to 2070. Socio-economic barriers to this transition are considered, such as recent discoveries of natural gas reserves combined with a history of energy insecurity, political instability impacting investor confidence, and a lack of international climate funding. The paper concludes with policy recommendations that would enable Egypt to progress towards achieving a CET.
Published: 2024
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13. Modelling Policy Pathways to Maximise Renewable Energy Growth and Investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)

Author: Jacob Dalder, Gbemi Oluleye, Carla Cannone, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, and Mark Howells
Subjects: DRC, energy policy, renewable energy technologies, OSeMOSYS, power system modelling, solar home systems, Technology
Abstract: This study sought to generate, evaluate, and recommend possible national policies for the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to implement to most effectively boost growth and investment in renewable energy technologies (RETs) through 2065 using Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). The novelty of this study stems in-part from the scarcity of RET modelling completed for specific West African countries rather than for broader regions. Market-based instruments were identified as the policy type most practical for DRC. From modelling the resulting energy systems for policy pathways involving a 16% RET subsidy, a 70% fossil fuel tax, and both in combination relative to no-policy baseline scenarios, the scenarios including the tax had the lowest net costs (USD304–306 B) and the highest proportion of RETs (above 90%). Additionally, despite the current reliance on hydropower to fulfil 98% of its energy needs, hydropower played a very minor role in all of a modelled scenarios (no future investment beyond residual capacity). Finally, a post-modelling market potential assessment was performed on the technology that dominated off-grid supply across policy pathways: a 0.3 kW small solar home system (SHS). Based on learning rates for solar photovoltaics (PV), demand for a small SHS in DRC (>160 million units in total) was found to be sufficient to substantially reduce the unit cost as deployment scales. Ultimately, this study yielded four recommendations for the DRC government: (1) Pursue financial incentives to catalyse DRC’s renewable energy supply. (2) Tax fossil fuel energy production. (3) Re-evaluate focus on hydropower. (4) Promote DRC as a healthy market for solar home systems.
Published: 2024
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14. Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia’s Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)

Author: Pusanisa Paiboonsin, Gbemi Oluleye, Mark Howells, Rudolf Yeganyan, Carla Cannone, and Simon Patterson
Subjects: energy modelling, energy transition, policy planning, OSeMOSYS, Technology
Abstract: Responding to the Paris Agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach net zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia’s dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia’s opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. In this study, the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), which is a long-term energy system modelling tool, is employed to compare electricity generation, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions between business-as-usual and five alternative scenarios. Six scenarios, including business as usual, least-cost, two coal-phrase out and two net zero aligned with national climate targets and optimal scenarios, were simulated across different target years. The results show that the net zero (NZ) scenario is more cost-effective and emits fewer greenhouse gases than the other scenarios in meeting Indonesia’s future energy demand. However, achieving net zero by 2050 (NZ50) results in significantly lower CO2 emissions (10,134 MtCO2), which is less than half of the emissions in the net zero by 2060 (NZ60) scenario (16,849 MtCO2) at a similar cost (6229 and 6177 billion USD, respectively). This paper’s insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.
Published: 2023
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15. Evidence-Based Policymaking: Insights and Recommendations for the Implementation of Clean Energy Transition Pathways for Kenya’s Power Sector

Author: Neve Fields, David Ryves, Rudolf Yeganyan, Carla Cannone, Naomi Tan, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Kenya, power sector pathways, clean energy transitions, OSeMOSYS, energy modelling, policymaking, Technology
Abstract: With ambitious targets to drastically increase economic activity over the next decade, Kenya’s future is undoubtedly energy-intensive. Current power capacity expansion plans will see Kenya considerably ramp up fossil fuel generation, significantly increasing emissions. Therefore, Kenya is at a crucial stage of its national development, with critical decisions to make regarding its future power expansion and production. OSeMOSYS modelling software (clicSAND version v1.1) is employed to produce a series of possible clean energy transition pathways to increase renewable power production under rapidly intensifying demand. This study integrates existing national priorities and policies into six modelled scenarios to provide insights into their generation, total production, and costs, which can assist future policymaking and capacity-building efforts. The high-level insights gained in this research were employed to suggest key recommendations for Kenya’s power sector. Most notably, policy alignment, increased wind power production, energy-efficiency penetration, finance and investment securement, the development of storage technologies, power transmission, and distribution improvements should be prioritised.
Published: 2023
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16. Addressing Challenges in Long-Term Strategic Energy Planning in LMICs: Learning Pathways in an Energy Planning Ecosystem

Author: Carla Cannone, Pooya Hoseinpoori, Leigh Martindale, Elizabeth M. Tennyson, Francesco Gardumi, Lucas Somavilla Croxatto, Steve Pye, Yacob Mulugetta, Ioannis Vrochidis, Satheesh Krishnamurthy, Taco Niet, John Harrison, Rudolf Yeganyan, Martin Mutembei, Adam Hawkes, Luca Petrarulo, Lara Allen, Will Blyth, and Mark Howells
Subjects: U4RIA, OpTIMUS, OSeMOSYS, IRENA FlexTool, energy planning, energy system modeling, Technology
Abstract: This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs.
Published: 2023
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17. Techno-economic data and assumptions for long-term energy systems modelling in Viet Nam

Author: Naomi Tan, John Harrison, Mark Howells, and Rudolf Yeganyan
Subjects: Renewable energy, Cost-optimization, Energy policy, OSeMOSYS, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: Viet Nam is at a critical juncture in planning for its future energy mix due to its fast-growing economy and recent climate commitments. Robust modelling analyses examining the potential and practical energy mix alternatives are therefore key in providing key stakeholders with critical information on energy policy decision-making. The challenge is that a large volume of data is required to accurately model various energy pathways at the national scale. This data note, therefore, aims to bridge the current data gap by providing key information on input data and assumptions for long-term energy planning in Viet Nam. Historical and/or projected data regarding electricity generation and consumption, electricity imports and exports, fuel prices, emissions, refineries, power transmission and distribution, electricity generation technologies, and renewable energy potential and reserves for the years 2015 to 2050 are described in this article.
Published: 2023
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18. Designing a zero-order energy transition model: How to create a new Starter Data Kit

Author: Carla Cannone, Lucy Allington, Karla Cervantes Barron, Flora Charbonnier, Miriam Zachau Walker, Claire Halloran, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, Jonathan M Cullen, John Harrison, Long Seng To, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Data Collection and Manipulation Method for Starter Data Kits models, Science
Abstract: The Paris Agreement was signed by 192 Parties, who committed to reducing emissions. Reaching such commitments by developing national decarbonisation strategies requires significant analyses and investment. Analyses for such strategies are often delayed due to a lack of accurate and up-to-date data for creating energy transition models. The Starter Data Kits address this issue by providing open-source, zero-level country datasets to accelerate the energy planning process. There is a strong demand for replicating the process of creating Starter Data Kits because they are currently only available for 69 countries in Africa, Asia, and South America. Using an African country as an example, this paper presents the methodology to create a Starter Data Kit made of tool-agnostic data repositories and OSeMOSYS-specific data files. The paper illustrates the steps involved, provides additional information for conducting similar work in Asia and South America, and highlights the limitations of the current version of the Starter Data Kits. Future development is proposed to expand the datasets, including new and more accurate data and new energy sectors. Therefore, this document provides instructions on the steps and materials required to develop a Starter Data Kit. • The methodology presented here is intended to encourage practitioners to apply it to new countries and expand the current Starter Data Kits library. • It is a novel process that creates data pipelines that feed into a single Data Collection and Manipulation Tool (DaCoMaTool). • It allows for tool-agnostic data creation in a consistent format ready for a modelling analysis using one of the available tools.
Published: 2023
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19. Science policy frameworks for a post-pandemic green economic recovery

Author: Theodoros Zachariadis, Elias Giannakis, Constantinos Taliotis, Marios Karmellos, Nestor Fylaktos, Mark Howells, Will Blyth, and Stéphane Hallegatte
Subjects: Climate-compatible growth, Energy systems model, Input-output model, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Stakeholder engagement, Sustainable development goals, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: As current production and consumption patterns exceed planetary boundaries, many leaders have stressed the need to adopt green economic stimulus policies in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides an integrated multi-stakeholder framework to design an economic recovery strategy aligned with climate stabilisation objectives. We first employ quantitative energy and economic models, and then a multi-criteria decision process in which we engage social actors from government, enterprises and civil society. As a case study, we select green recovery measures that are relevant for a European Union country and assess their appropriateness with numerous criteria related to climate resilience and socio-economic sustainability. Results highlight trade-offs between immediate and long-run effects, economic and environmental objectives, and expert evidence and societal priorities. Importantly, we find that a ‘return-to-normal’ economic stimulus is environmentally unsustainable and economically inferior to most green recovery schemes.
Published: 2023
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20. Empowering Tomorrow’s Problem Solvers: Nexus Thinking and CLEWs Modelling as a Pedagogical Approach to Wicked Problems

Author: Leigh Martindale, Carla Cannone, Taco Niet, Richard Hodgkins, Kane Alexander, and Mark Howells
Subjects: CLEWs, OSeMOSYS, pedagogy, nexus thinking, wicked problems, Technology
Abstract: The increasing prevalence of wicked problems, such as climate change, requires a transformation in education that equips students with the skills, competencies and knowledge to address these complex challenges. Wicked problems are characterised by their incomplete, contradictory, and ever-changing requirements, rendering them difficult to resolve due to intricate interdependencies. Nexus thinking offers a valuable approach to these problems, as it emphasises the interconnectedness of various systems, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges at hand. In this paper, we propose the use of Climate, Land, Energy, and Water (CLEWs) modelling as an innovative pedagogical strategy tool to cultivate nexus thinking among students. Building upon the pioneering CLEWs pedagogical work of Shivakumar et al., in their ‘Introduction to CLEWs’ Open Learn course, we demonstrate how this approach can be utilised in a Higher Education (HE) setting in the form of a Masters’ module for geography students.
Published: 2023
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21. Selected ‘Starter kit’ energy system modelling data for selected countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America (#CCG, 2021)

Author: Lucy Allington, Carla Cannone, Ioannis Pappis, Karla Cervantes Barron, Will Usher, Steve Pye, Edward Brown, Mark Howells, Miriam Zachau Walker, Aniq Ahsan, Flora Charbonnier, Claire Halloran, Stephanie Hirmer, Jennifer Cronin, Constantinos Taliotis, Caroline Sundin, Vignesh Sridharan, Eunice Ramos, Maarten Brinkerink, Paul Deane, Andrii Gritsevskyi, Gustavo Moura, Arnaud Rouget, David Wogan, Edito Barcelona, Taco Niet, Holger Rogner, Franziska Bock, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, Jam Angulo-Paniagua, Satheesh Krishnamurthy, John Harrison, and Long Seng To
Subjects: U4RIA, Renewable energy, Cost-optimization, Energy policy, OSeMOSYS, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: Energy system modeling can be used to develop internally-consistent quantified scenarios. These provide key insights needed to mobilise finance, understand market development, infrastructure deployment and the associated role of institutions, and generally support improved policymaking. However, access to data is often a barrier to starting energy system modeling, especially in developing countries, thereby causing delays to decision making. Therefore, this article provides data that can be used to create a simple zero-order energy system model for a range of developing countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America, which can act as a starting point for further model development and scenario analysis. The data are collected entirely from publicly available and accessible sources, including the websites and databases of international organisations, journal articles, and existing modeling studies. This means that the datasets can be easily updated based on the latest available information or more detailed and accurate local data. As an example, these data were also used to calibrate a simple energy system model for Kenya using the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) and three stylized scenarios (Fossil Future, Least Cost and Net Zero by 2050) for 2020–2050. The assumptions used and the results of these scenarios are presented in the appendix as an illustrative example of what can be done with these data. This simple model can be adapted and further developed by in-country analysts and academics, providing a platform for future work.
Published: 2022
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22. Population cluster data to assess the urban-rural split and electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Babak Khavari, Alexandros Korkovelos, Andreas Sahlberg, Mark Howells, and Francesco Fuso Nerini
Subjects: Science
Abstract: Measurement(s) electricity access • urban area • rural area Technology Type(s) digital curation Factor Type(s) Administrative boundaries • Population • Night-time lights Sample Characteristic - Environment populated place Sample Characteristic - Location Sub-Saharan Africa Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13516283
Published: 2021
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23. A scenario discovery approach to least-cost electrification modelling in Burkina Faso

Author: Andreas Sahlberg, Babak Khavari, Alexandros Korkovelos, Francesco Fuso Nerini, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Energy access, Geospatial electrification, Scenario discovery, Burkina Faso, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: This paper presents the first application of the scenario discovery approach in geospatial electrification modelling. 1944 electrification simulations were constructed for Burkina Faso from a combination seven input levers, including four grid-extension strategies. The scenario discovery analysis identifies a scenario described by a high grid electricity generation cost in combination with an intensification strategy for grid-extension, as most likely to lead to a high cost of electricity in Burkina Faso. Thus, to avoid such a high cost, decisions in the country could be targeted either at lowering grid electricity generation costs or to choose one of the other two grid-extension strategies, or both. For each of the grid-extension strategies, a number of drivers causing a high LCOE were identified. Common drivers for all strategies were the grid electricity generation cost and discount rate. The scenario discovery approach was used to identify the key drivers of high electrification costs and their interactions, providing useful information that might not be gained from a traditional scenario-axes approach. This approach provided a structured way to analyze more parameters than found in previous electrification studies for Burkina Faso. The paper discusses on the pros compared to a traditional scenario-axes approach, such as reduced risk of perceived bias and improved ability to deal with multiple uncertain parameters, but also notes the additional computational requirements.
Published: 2021
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24. A scenario analysis of potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Tunisian electricity sector

Author: Francesco Gardumi, Nesrine Mhiri, Mark Howells, Franziska Bock, Thameur Necibi, and Chiheb Bouden
Subjects: COVID-19, Tunisia, Energy-economy, OSeMOSYS, Input-output, Open source, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the economy of Tunisia, like that of many other countries. With electricity consumption dropping, consumption patterns changing, international fuel prices oscillating and uncertainty raging, the pandemic has affected not least the planning of investments in electricity supply. Although the government seems unlikely to revise the decarbonisation targets downwards, questions arise on whether the investments planned before the pandemic are still relevant in the changed global landscape and what effects they may have on the country's economy.In this study, we analyse post-pandemic scenarios for the electricity supply system of Tunisia with an energy-economy modelling framework, soft-linking the energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS and an open source Input-Output model. We extract insights on the cost-competitiveness of different – previously planned and new – electricity supply solutions and their impacts on job creation and loss in the entire economy. We find that renewable solutions based on solar photovoltaic remain highly competitive with gas-fired generation under different projections of gas prices and that several low-carbon and energy efficiency solutions have high potential for job creation. We also find that more ambitious investments in renewables and energy efficiency are needed to take Tunisia towards the path of deep decarbonisation.
Published: 2021
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25. Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation

Author: Vignesh Sridharan, Oliver Broad, Abhishek Shivakumar, Mark Howells, Brent Boehlert, David G. Groves, H-Holger Rogner, Constantinos Taliotis, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek, Robert Lempert, Brian Joyce, Annette Huber-Lee, and Raffaello Cervigni
Subjects: Science
Abstract: Hydropower generation in the Nile River Basin is vulnerable to climatic changes. Here, the authors assess infrastructure resilience of the Eastern African power pool (EAPP) to the effects of a changing climate and suggest that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations.
Published: 2019
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26. Decarbonising the transport and energy sectors: Technical feasibility and socioeconomic impacts in Costa Rica

Author: Guido Godínez-Zamora, Luis Victor-Gallardo, Jam Angulo-Paniagua, Eunice Ramos, Mark Howells, Will Usher, Felipe De León, Andrea Meza, and Jairo Quirós-Tortós
Subjects: Energy policy, Energy system optimization models, Deep decarbonisation pathways, Participatory backcasting, OSeMOSYS, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: Compliance with the Paris Agreement requires the transformation of national economies to meet net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century. To accomplish this, countries need to define long-term decarbonisation strategies with near- and mid-term actions to determine their ideal future scenario while maximizing socioeconomic benefits. This paper describes the process followed to support the creation of the decarbonisation pathway for the transport and energy sectors presented in Costa Rica's National Decarbonisation Plan. We discuss in detail the technological pathway of a deep-decarbonisation future that supports reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, our results show that the decarbonisation pathway can lead to emissions' reduction of 87% in the transport and energy sectors by 2050. Energy efficiency, the adoption of electromobility, modal-shift towards public transport and active mobility, as well as reduced demand due to digitalisation and teleworking, are found to be key drivers towards the deep-decarbonisation. These measures combined enable a 25% reduction of primary energy production by 2050. The results highlight that the decarbonisation scenario requires installing 4.4 GW more of renewable power plants by 2050, compared to the BAU scenario (80%). We also show that additional investments for the deep-decarbonisation are compensated with the reduced operating cost. Crucially, we found that the National Decarbonisation Plan results in a lower total discounted cost of about 35% of current Costa Rica's GDP, indicating that a deep decarbonisation is technically feasible and is coupled to socioeconomic benefits.
Published: 2020
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27. Net-zero deep decarbonization pathways in Latin America: Challenges and opportunities

Author: Christopher Bataille, Henri Waisman, Yann Briand, Johannes Svensson, Adrien Vogt-Schilb, Marcela Jaramillo, Ricardo Delgado, Ricardo Arguello, Leon Clarke, Thomas Wild, Francisco Lallana, Gonzalo Bravo, Gustavo Nadal, Gaëlle Le Treut, Guido Godinez, Jairo Quiros-Tortos, Eunice Pereira, Mark Howells, Daniel Buira, Jordi Tovilla, Jamil Farbes, Jones Ryan, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte, Mauricio Collado, Fernando Requejo, Ximena Gomez, Rafael Soria, Daniel Villamar, Pedro Rochedo, and Mariana Imperio
Subjects: Decarbonization, Decarbonisation., Pathways, Development, Energy, AFOLU, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Published: 2020
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28. Technoeconomic data adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for the Hashmite Kingdome of Jordan

Author: Osama Saadeh, Zakariya Dalala, Taco Niet, Eunice Pereira Ramos, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Energy policy, Renewable energy, Cost-optimisation, Jordan scenarios, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: Electrical generation in Jordan currently relies on imported fossil fuels. In the past, most imported fossil fuels were subsidised by neighbouring countries through grants and aid. This has led to a regulated market, with subsidised low-cost electrical energy consumers, and the government being the sole buyer and seller of electricity. With the ageing of the national electrical infrastructure, political instability in the region, and lack of funds for direct investment, other options needed to be pursued. Long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) were granted to Independent Power Producers (IPP) to encourage investment in capacity and infrastructure. In addition, long-term fuel contracts were signed to secure steady flow of primary fuel sources. Over the past few years, renewable energy penetration has increased rapidly, but without proper planning or taking into consideration long term PPA and fuel contracts. Data in regard to the current infrastructure, renewable energy technology, signed energy commitments and system operation assumptions are described in this article, which may be used for modelling and analysis. The Data were collected from annual reports from the different energy related entities in Jordan.
Published: 2020
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29. The effects of climate change mitigation strategies on the energy system of Africa and its associated water footprint

Author: Ioannis Pappis, Vignesh Sridharan, Mark Howells, Hrvoje Medarac, Ioannis Kougias, Rocío González Sánchez, Abhishek Shivakumar, and Will Usher
Subjects: energy modelling, integrated energy planning, water resources management, Africa, energy policy, OSeMOSYS, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: Africa’s economic and population growth prospects are likely to increase energy and water demands. This quantitative study shows that energy decarbonisation pathways reduce water withdrawals (WWs) and water consumption (WC) relative to the baseline scenario. However, the more aggressive decarbonisation pathway (1.5 °C) leads to higher overall WWs than the 2.0 °C scenario but lower WC levels by 2065. By 2065, investments in low-carbon energy infrastructure increase annual WWs from 1% (52 bcm) in the 2.0 °C to 2% (85 bcm) in the 1.5 °C scenarios of total renewable water resources in Africa compared to 3% (159 bcm) in the baseline scenario with lower final energy demands in the mitigation scenarios. WC decreases from 1.2 bcm in the 2.0 °C to 1 bcm in the 1.5 °C scenario, compared to 2.2 bcm in the baseline scenario by 2065, due to the lower water intensity of the low-carbon energy systems. To meet the 1.5 °C pathway, the energy sector requires a higher WW than the 2.0 °C scenario, both in total and per unit of final energy. Overall, these findings demonstrate the crucial role of integrated water-energy planning, and the need for joined-up carbon policy and water resources management for the continent to achieve climate-compatible growth.
Published: 2022
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30. Energy modelling and the Nexus concept

Author: Floor Brouwer, Georgios Avgerinopoulos, Dora Fazekas, Chrysi Laspidou, Jean-Francois Mercure, Hector Pollitt, Eunice Pereira Ramos, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, HD9502-9502.5
Abstract: The Nexus concept is the interconnection between the resources energy, water, food, land and climate. Such interconnections enable to address trade-offs and seek for synergies among them. Several policy areas (e.g. bio-based economy, circular economy) increasingly consider the Nexus concept. Ignoring synergies and trade-offs between energy and natural flows, can generate misleading modelling outcomes. Several modelling tools are available to address energy and the Nexus. Based on six such models, this paper aims to support the design and testing of coherent strategies for sustainable development. Model improvements would be achieved by comparing model outcomes and including a common baseline. Keywords: Energy modelling, Nexus concept, Water, Food, Climate change
Published: 2018
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31. Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient

Author: Mark Howells, Brent Boehlert, and Pablo César Benitez
Subjects: energy modelling, climate change, climate resilience, OSeMOSYS, integrated assessment modelling, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), Technology
Abstract: Almost all countries have committed to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce GHG emissions. They determine the level of GHG mitigation that, as a nation, they will commit to reducing. Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal-based future, emissions will be reduced by 33% per capita by 2030. If historical climate conditions continue, it can do this at low or negative cost if suitable sources of climate financing are in place. The NDC plots a positive future. However, much of Zimbabwe’s NDC mitigation center on hydropower generation and other measures that are dangerously vulnerable to climate change. Should the climate change in accordance with recent projections, these investments will be at risk, severely constraining electricity supply and causing high degrees of economic damage. This paper uses the Open-Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) to consider two adaptation pathways that address this vulnerability. In the first, the country turns to a historically accessible option, namely the deployment of coal. In so doing, the electrical system is made more resilient, but emissions ramp up. The second pathway ‘climate proofs’ the power sector by boosting solar and wind capacity, using hydropower to provide balance for these new renewable resources, and introducing significant energy efficiency measures. This second pathway would require a set of extra accompanying investments and changes to the power market rules, but allows for both system resilience and NDC targets to be met. The paper shows that Zimbabwe’s low emissions growth can be made resilient, and while this path promises strong benefits, it also requires strong commitment and political will. From this paper insights are drawn and requirements for future analysis are made. Two critical insights are that: (i) NDCs that focus on mitigation should include resilience in their design. If they do not, they can introduce deep vulnerability; (ii) a departure from historical electricity market structures appears to hold potential for strong environmental, cost and reliability gains.
Published: 2021
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32. Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus

Author: Constantinos Taliotis, Emanuele Taibi, Mark Howells, Holger Rogner, Morgan Bazilian, and Manuel Welsch
Subjects: Renewable energy, Cost-optimization, Cyprus, Scenarios, Energy policy, MESSAGE, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Science (General), Q1-390
Abstract: The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.
Published: 2017
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33. An indicative assessment of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector

Author: Constantinos Taliotis, Asami Miketa, Mark Howells, Sebastian Hermann, Manuel Welsch, Oliver Broad, Holger Rogner, Morgan Bazilian, and Dolf Gielen
Subjects: Energy conservation, TJ163.26-163.5, Environmental sciences, GE1-350
Abstract: In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Published: 2017
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34. The role of Energy-Water nexus to motivate transboundary cooperation

Author: Youssef Almulla, Eunica Ramos, Francesco Gardumi, Constantinos Taliotis, Annukka Lipponen, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TA1-2040, Social sciences (General), H1-99
Abstract: Hydropower is a key energy source for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7. Meanwhile, the effects of hydropower development and operation are complex, and potentially a source of tension on transboundary rivers. This paper aims at exploring solutions that consider both energy and water to motivate transboundary cooperation in the operation of hydropower plants (HPPs) in the Drina River Basin (DRB), where the level of cooperation among the riparian countries is low. OSeMOSYS was used to develop a multi-country model with a simplified hydrological system to represent the cascade of HPPs in the DRB. Results show that improved cooperation can increase electricity generation in the HPPs downstream without compromising generation upstream. It also demonstrates the role of inexpensive hydropower in enhancing electricity trade in the region. Implementing energy efficiency measures would reduce the stress on coal power plants, which will mitigate CO2 emissions by about 21% compared to the 2015 level.
Published: 2018
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35. Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning

Author: Ioannis Pappis, Andreas Sahlberg, Tewodros Walle, Oliver Broad, Elusiyan Eludoyin, Mark Howells, and Will Usher
Subjects: energy planning, electricity demand scenarios, on-grid and off-grid technologies, OSeMOSYS, OnSSET, SDG7, Technology
Abstract: Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia’s energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country’s electricity needs during 2015–2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country’s exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD.
Published: 2021
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36. The climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) framework: a retrospective of activities and advances to 2019

Author: Eunice Pereira Ramos, Mark Howells, Vignesh Sridharan, Rebecka Ericsdotter Engström, Constantinos Taliotis, Dimitris Mentis, Francesco Gardumi, Lucia de Strasser, Ioannis Pappis, Gabriela Peña Balderrama, Youssef Almulla, Agnese Beltramo, Camilo Ramirez, Caroline Sundin, Thomas Alfstad, Annukka Lipponen, Eduardo Zepeda, Taco Niet, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, Jam Angulo-Paniagua, Abhishek Shivakumar, Silvia Ulloa, and Holger Rogner
Subjects: integrated resource assessments, nexus, CLEWs, sustainable development, nexus assessment framework, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: Population growth, urbanization and economic development drive the use of resources. Securing access to essential services such as energy, water, and food, while achieving sustainable development, require that policy and planning processes follow an integrated approach. The ‘Climate-, Land-, Energy- and Water-systems’ (CLEWs) framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. The approach was first introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct an integrated systems analysis of a biofuel chain. The framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. Its multi-institutional application to the case of Mauritius in 2012 initiated the deployment of the framework. A vast number of completed and ongoing applications of CLEWs span different spatial and temporal scales, discussing two or more resource interactions under different political contexts. Also, the studies vary in purpose. This shapes the methods that support CLEWs-type analyses. In this paper, we detail the main steps of the CLEWs framework in perspective to its application over the years. We summarise and compare key applications, both published in the scientific literature, as working papers and reports by international organizations. We discuss differences in terms of geographic scope, purpose, interactions represented, analytical approach and stakeholder involvement. In addition, we review other assessments, which contributed to the advancement of the CLEWs framework. The paper delivers recommendations for the future development of the framework, as well as keys to success in this type of evaluations.
Published: 2021
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37. Erratum: Korkovelos, A., et al. The Role of Open Access Data in Geospatial Electrification Planning and the Achievement of SDG7. An OnSSET-Based Case Study for Malawi. Energies 2019, 12(7), 1395

Author: Alexandros Korkovelos, Babak Khavari, Andreas Sahlberg, Mark Howells, Christopher Arderne, and Dimitrios Mentis
Subjects: n/a, Technology
Abstract: The authors wish to make a change in author names (adding new author—Dimitrios Mentis) to this paper [...]
Published: 2020
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38. Corrigendum: Electrification pathways for Kenya–linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 095008)

Author: Nandi Moksnes, Alexandros Korkovelos, Dimitrios Mentis, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: We have identified input values that were not harmonized with the paper and have therefore submitted this corrigendum. Qualitatively, there are no major differences between the two versions, and the insights generated are unchanged. However, part of the results, figures and discussion needed to be updated based on the new findings. We present those in the form of a corrigendum. In the model runs there were input parameters that were not harmonized with the published paper as seen in annex in table 1 . Therefore, to amend the incurred values, we have re-run the model and updated the following sections of the paper.
Published: 2020
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39. Energy Security prospects in Cyprus and Israel: A focus on Natural Gas

Author: Constantinos Taliotis, Mark Howells, Morgan Bazilian, Holger Rogner, and Manuel Welsch
Subjects: Natural gas markets, Power generation, Liquefied natural gas, Gas-to-liquids, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TA1-2040, Social sciences (General), H1-99
Abstract: The global production of natural gas has increased from 1226 bcm in 1973 to 3282 bcm in 2010 and is projected to continue rising by an annual growth rate of 1.6% between 2010 to 2035. Cyprus and Israel have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, which can supply to a great extent the two countries’ current domestic energy needs for the next few decades and still export a substantial volume. MESSAGE, a global optimization model was used to explore the possible interactions between the two countries’ energy systems. Scenarios are presented that assess the export potential for electricity (generated by gas-fired power plants), liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL). The results are compared to a scenario without any available reserves to illustrate the financial benefits that will arise from the exploitation of the gas resources in the two countries.
Published: 2014
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40. Representation of Balancing Options for Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy System Models: An Application to OSeMOSYS

Author: Francesco Gardumi, Manuel Welsch, Mark Howells, and Emanuela Colombo
Subjects: variable renewables, cost of balancing, reserve, OSeMOSYS, open source modelling, Technology
Abstract: The growing complexity and the many challenges related to fast-changing and highly de-carbonised electricity systems require reliable and robust open source energy modelling frameworks. Their reliability may be tested on a series of well-posed benchmarks that can be used and shared by the modelling community. This paper describes and integrates stand-alone, independent modules to compute the costs and benefits of flexible generation options in the open source energy investment modelling framework OSeMOSYS. The modules are applied to a case study that may work as a benchmark. The whole documentation of the modules and the test case study are retrievable, reproducible, reusable, interoperable, and auditable. They create a case to help establish a FAIR-compliant, user-friendly, and low-threshold model and data standards in modelling practices. As is well known, one of the options for balancing high shares of variable renewables is flexible power generation by dispatchable units. The associated costs need to be considered for short-term operational analyses and for long-term investment plans. The added modules contribute to extending the modelling capacity by introducing (a) costs of ramping, (b) non-linear decrease of efficiency at partial load operation, and (c) refurbishment of existing units in the cost minimisation objective function of OSeMOSYS. From application to the test case study, two main insights are drawn: costs of ramping and decreased partial load efficiency may influence the competitiveness of generation technologies in the provision of reserve capacity; and refurbishment of existing units may represent attractive investment options for increasing flexibility. Both effects are also seen in the long-term and may impact infrastructure investment decisions to meet decarbonisation targets. These effects would not be captured without the introduction of the modules.
Published: 2019
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41. OSeMOSYS-PuLP: A Stochastic Modeling Framework for Long-Term Energy Systems Modeling

Author: Dennis Dreier and Mark Howells
Subjects: driving cycle, energy modeling, OSeMOSYS, Python, real-world, transport, Technology
Abstract: Recent open-data movements give access to large datasets derived from real-world observations. This data can be utilized to enhance energy systems modeling in terms of heterogeneity, confidence, and transparency. Furthermore, it allows to shift away from the common practice of considering average values towards probability distributions. In turn, heterogeneity and randomness of the real-world can be captured that are usually found in large samples of real-world data. This paper presents a methodological framework for an empirical deterministic–stochastic modeling approach to utilize large real-world datasets in long-term energy systems modeling. A new software system—OSeMOSYS-PuLP—was developed and is available now.It adds the feature of Monte Carlo simulations to the existing open-source energy modeling system (the OSeMOSYS modeling framework). An application example is given, in which the initial application example of OSeMOSYS is used and modified to include real-world operation data from a public bus transport system.
Published: 2019
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42. The Role of Open Access Data in Geospatial Electrification Planning and the Achievement of SDG7. An OnSSET-Based Case Study for Malawi

Author: Alexandros Korkovelos, Babak Khavari, Andreas Sahlberg, Mark Howells, and Christopher Arderne
Subjects: open data, electrification modelling, Malawi, OnSSET, Technology
Abstract: Achieving universal access to electricity is a development challenge many countries are currently battling with. The advancement of information technology has, among others, vastly improved the availability of geographic data and information. That, in turn, has had a considerable impact on tracking progress as well as better informing decision making in the field of electrification. This paper provides an overview of open access geospatial data and GIS based electrification models aiming to support SDG7, while discussing their role in answering difficult policy questions. Upon those, an updated version of the Open Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (OnSSET-2018) is introduced and tested against the case study of Malawi. At a cost of $1.83 billion the baseline scenario indicates that off-grid PV is the least cost electrification option for 67.4% Malawians, while grid extension can connect about 32.6% of population in 2030. Sensitivity analysis however, indicates that the electricity demand projection determines significantly both the least cost technology mix and the investment required, with the latter ranging between $1.65–7.78 billion.
Published: 2019
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43. A Geospatial Assessment of Small-Scale Hydropower Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Alexandros Korkovelos, Dimitrios Mentis, Shahid Hussain Siyal, Christopher Arderne, Holger Rogner, Morgan Bazilian, Mark Howells, Hylke Beck, and Ad De Roo
Subjects: hydropower, Sub-Saharan Africa, geographic information systems, electrification, Technology
Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa has been at the epicenter of an ongoing global dialogue around the issue of energy poverty. More than half of the world’s population without access to modern energy services lives there. It also happens to be a sub-continent with plentiful renewable energy resource potential. Hydropower is one of them, and to a large extent it remains untapped. This study focuses on the technical assessment of small-scale hydropower (0.01⁻10 MW) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The underlying methodology was based on open source geospatial datasets, whose combination allowed a consistent evaluation of 712,615 km of river network spanning over 44 countries. Environmental, topological, and social constraints were included in the form of constraints in the optimization algorithm. The results are presented on a country and power pool basis.
Published: 2018
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44. A Sketch of Bolivia’s Potential Low-Carbon Power System Configurations. The Case of Applying Carbon Taxation and Lowering Financing Costs

Author: Jenny Gabriela Peña Balderrama, Thomas Alfstad, Constantinos Taliotis, Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh, and Mark Howells
Subjects: carbon tax, discount rate, carbon abatement costs, MACC, Bolivia, OSeMOSYS, Technology
Abstract: This paper considers hypothetical options for the transformation of the Bolivian power generation system to one that emits less carbon dioxide. Specifically, it evaluates the influence of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) when applying carbon taxation to the power sector. The study is illustrated with a bottom-up least-cost optimization model. Projections of key parameters influence the shape of MACCs and the underlying technology configurations. These are reported. Results from our study (and the set of assumptions on which they are based) are country-specific. Nonetheless, the methodology can be replicated to other case studies to provide insights into the role carbon taxes and lowering finance costs might play in reducing emissions.
Published: 2018
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45. Lighting the World: the first application of an open source, spatial electrification tool (OnSSET) on Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Dimitrios Mentis, Mark Howells, Holger Rogner, Alexandros Korkovelos, Christopher Arderne, Eduardo Zepeda, Shahid Siyal, Costantinos Taliotis, Morgan Bazilian, Ad de Roo, Yann Tanvez, Alexandre Oudalov, and Ernst Scholtz
Subjects: sustainable development goals, energy access modelling, geospatial data, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. ‘Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030’ is the seventh goal (SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of this work. According to the World Bank’s 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of the world’s population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This paper presents results of a geographic information systems approach coupled with open access data. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid and to grid extensions.
Published: 2017
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46. Electrification pathways for Kenya–linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning

Author: Nandi Moksnes, Alexandros Korkovelos, Dimitrios Mentis, and Mark Howells
Subjects: Kenya, OSeMOSYS, optimization, OnSSET, off-grid, SDG, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract: In September 2015 UN announced 17 Sustainable Development goals (SDG) from which goal number 7 envisions universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030. In Kenya only about 46% of the population currently has access to electricity. This paper analyses hypothetical scenarios, and selected implications, investigating pathways that would allow the country to reach its electrification targets by 2030. Two modelling tools were used for the purposes of this study, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. The tools were soft-linked in order to capture both the spatial and temporal dynamics of their nature. Two electricity demand scenarios were developed representing low and high end user consumption goals respectively. Indicatively, results show that geothermal, coal, hydro and natural gas would consist the optimal energy mix for the centralized national grid. However, in the case of the low demand scenario a high penetration of stand-alone systems is evident in the country, reaching out to approximately 47% of the electrified population. Increasing end user consumption leads to a shift in the optimal technology mix, with higher penetration of mini-grid technologies and grid extension.
Published: 2017
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47. Higher dose corticosteroids in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 who are hypoxic but not requiring ventilatory support (RECOVERY)

Author: Obbina Abani, Ali Abbas, Fatima Abbas, Joshua Abbas, Kasim Abbas, Mustafa Abbas, Sadia Abbasi, Hakam Abbass, Alfie Abbott, Alison Abbott, Nabeel Abdallah, Ammar Abdelaziz, Ashraf Abdelaziz, Mohamed Abdelfattah, Bushra Abdelqader, Audrey Abdul, Basir Abdul, Siddiqui Abdul, Althaf Abdul Rasheed, Ajibode Abdulakeem, Rezan Abdul-Kadir, Abdullah Abdullah, Abdulfatahi Abdulmumeen, Rasheed Abdul-Raheem, Niyaz Abdulshukkoor, Kula Abdusamad, Yazeed Abed El Khaleq, Mai Abedalla, Abeer Abeer Ul Amna, Lynn Abel, Katrina Abernethy, Movin Abeywickrema, Chandra Abhinaya, Affyarsyah Abidin, Adebanke Aboaba, Abigail Aboagye-Odei, Christopher Aboah, Heba Aboelela, Hani Abo-Leyah, Karim Abouelela, Ahmed Abou-Haggar, Mahmoud Abouibrahim, Ahmed Abousamra, Mona Abouzaid, Miriam Abraham, Tizzy Abraham, Abraheem Abraheem, Judith Abrams, Rebecca Abrams, Hyacinth-John Abu, Ahmed Abu-Arafeh, Syed M Abubacker, Akata Abung, Yousuf Abusamra, Yaa Aceampong, Amaka Achara, Devikumar Acharya, Faustina Acheampong, Prince Acheampong, Sarah Acheampong, Janet Acheson, Shiella Achieng, Andres Acosta, Rebecca Acquah, Catherine Acton, Jacqueline Adabie-Ankrah, Paul Adair, Fiona Adam, Matthew Adam, Huzaifa Adamali, Marta Adamczyk, Carol Adams, Charlotte Adams, Daniel Adams, Kate Adams, Laura Adams, Nikkita Adams, Richard Adams, Tim Adams, Laura Adamu-Ikeme, Krishma Adatia, Kirsty Adcock, Lawrence Addai-Boampong, Afua Addo, Oluwatobi Adeagbo, Ade Adebiyi, Ogunlana Adedeji, Yewande Adegeye, Ken Adegoke, Vicki Adell, Sherna Adenwalla, Femi W Adeoye, Oluwasegun A Adesemoye, Emmanuel O Adewunmi, Adedamola Adeyanju, Joyce Adeyemi, Tenifayo Adeyemo, Binay Adhikari, Shanti A Adhikari, Rina Adhikary, Adhikarla Aditya, Patience Adjepong, Gabrielle Adkins, Adnan Adnan, Marguerite Adriaanse, John Aeron-Thomas, Debbie Affleck, Carmel Afnan, Muhammad Afridi, Patricia Afrim, Felicia Akua Afriyie, Zainab A Aftab, Meenakshi Agarwal, Rachel Agbeko, Chris Agbo, Sunil Aggarwal, Arameh Aghababaie, Laura Aguilar Jimenez, Jacqueline Afrakomah Agyekum, Kwame Agyen, Shafana Ahamed Sadiq, Mohamed H Ahammed Nazeer, Mohammad Ahmad, Syed Ahmad, Afshan Ahmed, Ashar Ahmed, Asim Ahmed, Basheer A R Ahmed, Bilal Ahmed, Forizuddin Ahmed, Hamze Ahmed, Hanad Ahmed, Irshad Ahmed, Khaled Ahmed, Khalil Ahmed, Liban Ahmed, Mahin Ahmed, Maria C Ahmed, Muhammad S Ahmed, Naseer Ahmed, Nausheen Ahmed, Osama Ahmed, Rajia A Ahmed, Rawya Ahmed, Rizwan Ahmed, Saif Ahmed, Sammiya Ahmed, Sana G Ahmed, Syed Ahmed, Syed H Ahmed, Roa Ahmed Ali, Bilal Ahmed Mohamud, Sana Ahmed, Sana Ahmer, Augustine Ahonia, Christine Aiken, Dhiraj Ail, Mark Ainsworth, Myriam Aissa, Lindianne Aitken, Bini Ajay, Abdulakeem Ajibode, Ayesha Ajmi, Nasim Akhtar, Nauman Akhtar, Suha Akili, Bolutito Akinbiyi, Oludoyinsola Akindolie, Yinka Akinfenwa, Olugbenga Akinkugbe, Ibrahim Akinpelu, Mohammad Akram, Olugbenro Aktinade, Uzayr Akudi, Ahmad S A R Al Aaraj, Asma Al Balushi, Majd Al Dakhola, Aladdin Al Swaifi, Eslam Al-Abadi, Adegoke Alabi, Narendra 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Heike Arndt, Clare Arnison-Newgass, David Arnold, Rachael Arnold, Andrew Arnott, Dhawal Arora, Kavan Arora, Pardeep Arora, Rishi Arora, Arslam Arter, Armena Arumaithurai, Ayush Arya, Rita Arya, Diptesh Aryal, Denisa Asandei, Adeeba Asghar, Malik Asghar, Arif Ashab, Catherine Ashbrook-Raby, Helen Ashby, Jan Ashcroft, John Ashcroft, Samuel Ashcroft, Georgia Asher, Zakariya Ashfak, Ayesha Ashfaq, Abdul Ashish, Dawn Ashley, Sally Ashman-Flavell, Sundar Ashok, Abd-El-Aziz Ashour, Muhammad Z Ashraf, Saima Ashraf, Mohammad B Ashraq, Deborah Ashton, Susan Ashton, Andrew Ashworth, Fiona J Ashworth, Rebecca Ashworth, Arshia Aslam, I Aslam, Suhail Aslam, Laura Aslett, Harshini Asogan, Atif Asrar, Omar Assaf, Raine Astin-Chamberlain, Deborah Athorne, Billie Atkins, Christopher Atkins, Stacey Atkins, John Atkinson, Vicki Atkinson, Abolaji Atomode, Brygitta Atraskiewicz, Abdul A Attia, Eva Attubato, Marie Attwood, Paula Aubrey, Zoltan Auer, Avinash Aujayeb, Aye Chan Thar Aung, Hnin Aung, Hnin Wint 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Zain Chaudhry, Nazia Chaudhuri, Muhammad Chaudhury, Anoop Chauhan, Ruchi S Chauhan, Alexander Chavasse, Nicola Chavasse, Vipal Chawla, Lindsay Cheater, James Cheaveau, Charlotte Cheeld, Michelle Cheeseman, Fang Chen, Hui Min Chen, Terence Chen, Floria Cheng, Lok Yin Cheng, Zhihang Cheng, Helen Chenoweth, Chun How Cheong, Shiney Cherian, Mary Cherrie, Helen Cheshire, Chee Kay Cheung, Elaine Cheung, Kayan Cheung, Michelle Cheung, Claire Cheyne, Swati Chhabra, Wei Ling Chia, Eric Chiang, Angela Chiapparino, Rosavic Chicano, Moses Chikungwa, Zviedzo A Chikwanha, Gemma Chilcott, Sam Chilcott, Alison Chilvers, Phillipa Chimbo, KokWai Chin, Wen Jie Chin, Rumbidzai Chineka, Amol Chingale, Ezomike Chinonso, Chloe Chin-Saad, Margaret Chirgwin, Heather Chisem, Claire Chisenga, Catherine Chisholm, Ben Chisnall, Carolyn Chiswick, Sunder Chita, Nihil Chitalia, Matthew Chiu, Laura Chiverton, Brenda Chivima, Catherine Chmiel, Soha Choi, Willy Choon Kon Yune, Meena Chopra, Michelle Chopra, Vandana Choudhary, Omur Choudhury, Sarah Choudhury, Bing-Lun Chow, Mahibbur Chowdhury, Shahid Chowdhury, Angela Chrisopoulou, Victoria Christenssen, Peter Christian, Alexander Christides, Fiona Christie, Daniel Christmas, Georgios Christoforou, Thereza Christopherson, Anna Christou, Mark Christy, Paris Chrysostomou, Yunli Chua, Dip Chudgar, Richard Chudleigh, Srikanth Chukkambotla, Michael E Chukwu, Izu Chukwulobelu, Chi Yee Chung, Elaine Church, Sara R Church, David Churchill, Nicole Cianci, Paola Cicconi, Paola Cinardo, Zdenka Cipinova, Bessie Cipriano, Sarah Clamp, Bridget Clancy, Melanie Clapham, Edel Clare, Sarbjit Clare, Andrew Clark, Charlotte Clark, Diane Clark, Emma Clark, Felicity Clark, Gabrielle Clark, James Clark, Julia Clark, Katherine Clark, Kaylea Clark, Louise Clark, Lucy Clark, Martyn Clark, Matthew Clark, Nicola Clark, Patricia Clark, Richard Clark, Thomas Clark, Tonia Clark, Zoe Clark, Alison Clarke, Andrea Clarke, Jude Clarke, Paul Clarke, Robert Clarke, Roseanne Clarke, 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Thomas Cope, Sinead Corbet, Carolyn Corbett, Ailsa Corbishley, John Corcoran, Chris Cordell, Jessica Cordle, Alasdair Corfield, John Corless, Alison Corlett, Joe Cornwell, Michael Cornwell, Diana Corogeanu, Aisling Corr, Mirella Corredera, Ruth Corrigan, P Corry, Rita Corser, Jon Cort, Denise Cosgrove, Tracey Cosier, Patricia Costa, Telma Costa, Charlie Coston, Susannah Cotgrove, Zoe Coton, Lisa-Jayne Cottam, Rhiannon Cotter, Donna Cotterill, Caroline Cotton, George Couch, Martina Coulding, Andrew Coull, David Counsell, David Counter, Cherry Coupland, Ellie Courtney, Julia Courtney, Rebecca Cousins, Amanda J Coutts, Alexander Cowan, Elena Cowan, Richard Cowan, Richard Cowell, Louise Cowen, Steve Cowman, Amanda Cowton, Ellie Cox, Emma Cox, Giles Cox, Helen Cox, Karina Cox, Miriam Cox, Karen Coy, Andrea Cradduck-Bamford, Hannah Craig, Jayne Craig, John Craig, Victoria Craig, Felicity Craighead, Matthew Cramp, Hayley Cranston, Sheetal S Crasta, Jacolene Crause, Angie Crawford, Emma 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Trupti Dhorajiwala, Priya Dias, Stephanie Diaz, Kayleigh Diaz-Pratt, Mohammed Dibas, Debbie Dickerson, Pamela Dicks, Matt Dickson, Stuart Dickson, J Digby, Ronneil Digpal, Sean Dillane, Sarah Diment, Paul Dimitri, Georgios Dimitriadis, Sajeel Din, Thai H Dinh, Thi T T Dinh, Alex Dipper, Sabiq Dipro, Laura Dirmantaite, Lorelle Dismore, Lisa Ditchfield, Sarah Diver, Lavanya Diwakar, Preeti Diwan, Caroline Dixon, Giles Dixon, Kate Dixon, Brice Djeugam, Sipho Dlamini, Petr Dlouhy, Andrea D'Mello, Paul Dmitri, Thi Tien Do, Laurence Dobbie, Marinela Dobranszky Oroian, Charlotte Dobson, Lee Dobson, Marie Docherty, David Dockrell, Jacqueline Dodd, James Dodd, Jackie Dodds, Rebecca Dodds, Steve Dodds, Richi Dogra, Conor Doherty, Erin Doherty, Warren Doherty, Yumiko Doi, Iain Doig, Eleanor Doke, Daniel Dolan, Mark Dolman, Rozzie Dolman, Lisa Donald, Katie Donald, Callum Donaldson, Christopher Donaldson, Denise Donaldson, Gillian Donaldson, Kate Donaldson, Phu Khiem Dong, Martha Donkor, Sinead 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Patrick Easton, Ruth Eatough, Oluwadamilola Ebigbola, Martin Ebon, Alison Eccles, Sinan Eccles, Chloe Eddings, Michael Eddleston, Maureen Edgar, Katharine Edgerley, Nicholas Edmond, Mary Edmondson, Tracy Edmunds, Abby Edwards, Alexandra Edwards, Catherine Edwards, Joy Edwards, Kennedy Edwards, Mandy Edwards, Martin Edwards, Sophie Edwards, Jenny Eedle, Aline Eggink, Dawn Egginton, Sam Eggleston, Loveth Ehiorobo, Sarah Eisen, Ugochukwu Ekeowa, Mohamed Ekoi, Ayomide Ekunola, Soha El Behery, Nagla Elashhar, Lisa Elawamy, Mohamed Elbeshy, Kate El-Bouzidi, Jennifer Elder, Mohammed El-Din, Emma Eldridge, Diana Eleanor, Uchenna Elenwa, Ibrahim Eletu, Eman Elfar, Mayy Magdy Elgamal, Amr Elgohary, Mohamed A A Elhadi, Stellios Elia, Jennifer Elias, Tania Elias, Nadia Elkaram, Andrew V Elkins, Julie Ellam, Nikki Ellard, Laura N Ellerton, Lucy Elliot, Amy Elliott, Fiona Elliott, Kerry Elliott, Scott Elliott, Sian Elliott, Annie Ellis, Christine Ellis, Kaytie Ellis, Leila Ellis, Rupert Ellis, Tak-Yan Ellis, Yvette Ellis, Alison C Ellwood, Rahma Elmahdi, Einas Elmahi, Hannah-May Elmasry, Mohammed El-Naggar, Najla Elndari, Omer Elneima, Mohamed Elokl, Ahmed Elradi, Mohamed Elsaadany, Mohammed A S A Elsayed, Sally El-Sayeh, Hana El-Sbahi, Mohammad Elsebaei, Tarek Elsefi, Karim El-Shakankery, Alguili Elsheikh, Hosni El-Taweel, Sarah Elyoussfi, Jonathan Emberey, Jonathan R Emberson, John Emberton, Anna Emery, Julian Emmanuel, Ingrid Emmerson, Michael Emms, Florence Emond, Marieke Emonts, Nicu Enachi, Dickson Enenche, Angila Engden, Katy English, Emma Entwistle, Hene Enyi, Marios Erotocritou, Peter Eskander, Hanif Esmail, Fatheha Essa, Brynach Evans, Chris Evans, Debra Evans, E Evans, Emrys Evans, Gail Evans, Gareth Evans, Isabel Evans, Jack Evans, Jacqueline Evans, Jennifer Evans, John Evans, Jolanta Evans, Lisa Evans, Lynn Evans, Mim Evans, Morgan Evans, Ranoromanana Evans, Sharon Evans, Sian Evans, Teriann Evans, Tomos Evans, Caroline Everden, Serenydd Everden, Lynette Every, 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Flanagan, Charles Flanders, Nikolaos Flaris, Gail Fleming, Julie Fleming, Lucy Fleming, Paul Fleming, William Flesher, Alison Fletcher, Anna Fletcher, Jonathan Fletcher, Lucy Fletcher, Simon Fletcher, Sophie Fletcher, Fiona Flett, Karen Flewitt, Sarah Flockhart, Christopher Flood, Ian Floodgate, Jonathan Flor, Vincent Florence, Mary Flowerdew, Sharon Floyd, Margaret J Flynn, Rachel Flynn, Claire Foden, Adama Fofana, Georgina Fogarty, Paul Foley, Linda Folkes, Tracey Fong, Daniela M Font, Aiwyne Foo, Jane Foo, Andrew Foot, Helen R Foot, Jayne Foot, Jane Forbes, Amber Ford, Jamie Ford, Imogen Fordham, Jennifer Foreman, Matthew Forester, Mohammad Forkan, Caroline Fornolles, Adam Forrest, Ellie Forsey, Miranda Forsey, Thomas Forshall, Elliot Forster, Abigail Forsyth, Julian Forton, Conrad Foster, Emily Foster, Joseph Foster, Rachel A Foster, Tracy Foster, Angela Foulds, Ian Foulds, Folakemi Fowe, Natasha Fowkes, Emily Fowler, Robert Fowler, Stephen Fowler, Amy Fox, Claire Fox, Heather Fox, Jonathan Fox, Laura Fox, Lauren Fox, Natalie Fox, Olivia Fox, Simon Fox, Sarah-Jane Foxton, Eva Fraile, Rebecca Frake, Alex Francioni, Olesya Francis, Rebecca Francis, Sarah Francis, Theodora Francis-Bacon, Helen Frankland, Jessica Franklin, Siobhan Franklin, Catherine Fraser, Andi Fratila, Sharon Frayling, Martyn Fredlund, Anna Freeman, Carol Freeman, Elaine Freeman, Hannah Freeman, Nicola Freeman, Clare Freer, Eleanor French, Thomas French, Karen Freshwater, Matthew Frise, Renate Fromson, Adam Frosh, John Frost, Victoria Frost, Oliver Froud, Rachel Frowd, Arun Fryatt, Andrzej Frygier, Bridget Fuller, Liz Fuller, Lucy Fuller, Tracy Fuller, Duncan Fullerton, Carrie Fung, Gayle Fung, Sarah Funnell, John Furness, Andrew Fyfe, Nytianandan G, Elizabeth Gabbitas, Claire Gabriel, Zoë Gabriel, Hadiza Gachi, Sophie Gaffarena, Sarah Gage, Joshua Gahir, Sarveen Gajebasia, Katarzyna Gajewska-Knapik, Babita Gajmer, Zacharoula Galani, Christopher Gale, Hugo Gale, Linda Gale, Rebecca Gale, Swetha 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Giokanini-Royal, Anna Gipson, Barbie Giri, Joanna Girling, Rhian Gisby, Angelena Gkioni, Aikaterini Gkoritsa, Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas, Amy Gladwell, James Glanville, Jessica Glasgow, Susannah Glasgow, Jon Glass, Lynn Glass, Sharon Glaysher, Lisa Gledhill, Eleanor Glenday, Ana Glennon, Jodie Glossop, John Glover, Kyle Glover, Michelle Glover, Jan Glover Bengtsson, Deborah Glowski, Sharon Glynn, Chevanthy Gnanalingam, Julie Goddard, Wendy Goddard, Emily Godden, Jo Godden, Sarah Godlee, Emma Godson, Gillian Godwin, Sukanya Gogoi, Aiky Goh, Manjinder Gohel, Rebeca Goiriz, Sriya Gokaraju, Raphael Goldacre, Arthur Goldsmith, Portia Goldsmith, Darren Gomersall, Lucia Gomez, Raquel Gomez-Marcos, Ali Gondal, Celia Gonzalez, Jack Goodall, Vicky Goodall, Bob Goodenough, Anna Goodfellow, Laura Goodfellow, James Goodlife, Camelia Goodwin, Elizabeth Goodwin, Jayne Goodwin, Paula Goodyear, Rajiv Gooentilleke, Michelle Goonasekara, Sheila Gooseman, Shameer Gopal, Chris Gordon, Sally Gordon, Robin 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Hale, Jennie Hale, Carmel Halevy, Paul Halford, William Halford, Alaina Halim, Alistair Hall, Anthony Hall, Claire Hall, Elizabeth Hall, Fiona Hall, Helen Hall, Jennifer Hall, Kathryn Hall, Laura Hall, Jan Hallas, Kyle Hallas, Charles Hallett, Jackie Halliday, Akmal Hallman, Heather Halls, Maryam Hamdollah-Zadeh, Ifedadepo A Hamed-Adekale, Bilal Hameed, Mohammed Hameed, Raph L Hamers, Imran Hamid, Mohamad Hamie, Raymond Hamill, Bethany Hamilton, Fergus Hamilton, Gus Hamilton, Leigh Hamilton, Melanie Hamilton, Nicola Hamilton, Sara Hamilton, Ruth Hamlin, Eleanor Hamlyn, Beatrice Hammans, Shirley Hammersley, Kate Hammerton, Bev Hammond, Emily Hammond, Leah Hammond, Sally Hammond, Fiona Hammonds, Ibrahim Hamoodi, Karen Hampshire, James A Hampson, Jude Hampson, Lucy Hampson, Lisa Hamzah, Jenny Han, Ozan Hanci, Sadiyah Hand, Lala Handayani, Jasmine Handford, Soran Handrean, Nina K Handzewniak, Sarah Haney, Vu Thi Kim Hang, Sheharyar Hanif, E Hanison, Esther Hanison, Jennifer Hannah, Amy 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Ruth Hartley, Tom Hartley, William Hartrey, Phillipa Hartridge, Stuart Hartshorn, Alice Harvey, Angela Harvey, Anna Harvey, Max Harvey, Catherine Harwood, Helen Harwood, Zoe Harzeli, Brigitte Haselden, Kazi Hashem, Mohammed Hashimm, Tadaaki Hashimoto, Imranullah Hashmi, Jack Haslam, Zena Haslam, Grace Hasnip, Adil Hassan, Ali Hassan, Amro Hassan, Awab Hassan, Zeinab Hassan, Sapna Hassasing, Jane Hassell, Philip Hassell, Alex Hastings, Bethany Hastings, Janice Hastings, Sarah Hathaway-Lees, Jonathan Hatton, Jennifer Hau, May Havinden-Williams, Stefan Havlik, Daniel B Hawcutt, Kadean Hawes, Liz Hawes, Nicola Hawes, Lydia Hawker, Annie Hawkins, Joe Hawkins, Nancy Hawkins, W John Hawkins, Dan Hawley, Ed Hawley-Jones, Edward Haworth, Alasdair W Hay, Cathy Hay, Amna Hayat, Jamal Hayat, Mohamed-Riyal Hayathu, Anne Hayes, Jonas Hayes, Kate Hayes, Melony Hayes, Fiona Hayes, Patrick Hayle, Chloe Haylett, Antara Hayman, Melanie Hayman, Matthew Haynes, Richard Haynes, Rachel Hayre, Carole Hays, Sarah Haysom, James Hayward, Patrick Haywood, Hazel Haywood Hasford, Tracy Hazelton, Phoebe Hazenberg, Zhengmai He, Elizabeth Headon, Carrie Heal, Brendan Healy, Jessica L Healy, Amy Hearn, David Heasman, Angela Heath, Debbie Heath, Rowan Heath, Diane Heaton, Adam Heavens, Kerry Hebbron, Catherine Heckman, Gemma Hector, Sadie Heddon, Andy Hedges, Katrine Hedges, Cheryl Heeley, Elaine Heeney, Richard Heinink, Rajdeep Heire, Ingvild Helgesen, Joanne Hemingway, Ulla Hemmila, Beth Hemmings, Scott Hemphill, Deborah Hemsley, Abigail Henderson, Eilidh Henderson, Jennifer Henderson, Steven Henderson, Joanne Henry, Karol Henry, Lavinia Henry, Margo Henry, Natalie Henry, David Henshall, Gillian Herdman, Rosaleen Herdman-Grant, Morag Herkes, Lucas E Hermans, Fe Marie Hernandez, Emma Heron, Lisa Heron, William Herrington, Emilia Heselden, Peta Heslop, Tracey Heslop, Simon Hester, Emily Hetherington, Joseph Hetherington, Chamila Hettiarachchi, Pramodh Hettiarachchi, Hayley Hewer, John Hewertson, 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Mike Hodson, Alison Hogan, Matthew Hogben, Lucy Hogg, Lee Hoggett, Abigail Holborow, Catherine Holbrook, Rebecca Holbrook, Catherine Holden, Jill Holden, Melinda Holden, Sophie Holden, Thomas Holder, Niels Holdhof, Hannah Holdsworth, Lisa Holland, Maureen Holland, Nicky Holland, Poppy Holland, Susan Holland, Marie L Hollands, Elizabeth Holliday, Kyra Holliday, Mark Holliday, Nina Holling, Laszlo Hollos, Nora Hollos, Leah Holloway, Simon Holloway, Max Hollowday, Marcus Hollyer, Amy Holman, Ann Holmes, Megan Holmes, Raphael Holmes, Rebecca Holmes, Kelly Holroyd, Beth Holroyd-Hind, Lyndsey Holt, Siobhan Holt, Susie Holt, Alexandra Holyome, Marie Home, Renate Homewood, Kate Hong, Louise Hoole, Clare Hooper, Samantha Hope, Susan Hope, Bridget Hopkins, Peter W Horby, Stephanie Horler, Anil Hormis, Daniel Hornan, Nicola Hornby, Thomas Horne, Zoey Horne, Rebecca Horner, Caroline Horrobin, Latoya Horsford, Megan Horsford, Mark Horsford, Valana Horsham, Alexander Horsley, Ashley Horsley, Elizabeth Horsley, Sarah Horton, Jane Hosea, Toby Hoskins, Muhammad S Hossain, Rashed Hossain, Maxine Hough, Sarah Hough, Catherine Houghton, Kathryn Houghton, Rebecca Houlihan, Kay Housely, Hamish Houston, Roseanna Hovvels, Lee How, Laura Howaniec, Joanne Howard, Kate Howard, Laura Howard, Linda Howard, Lucy Howard, Megan Howard, Sarah Howard, Stuart Howard, Richard Howard-Griffin, Louise Howard-Sandy, Serena Howe, Alice Howell, Mark Howells, Lyn Howie, Kerry Howlett, Sophie Howlett, Ruth Howman, Josh Hrycaiczuk, Hein Htet, Naing Z Htoon, Su Htwe, Ying Hu, Chiang O H Huah, Sylvia Huang, Kelly Hubbard, Abby Huckle, Shahzya Huda, Alison Hudak, Lisa Hudig, Heather Hudson, Suzanne Hudson, Oli Hudson, Alison Hufton, Connor Huggins, Alistair Hughes, Caitlin Hughes, Emma Hughes, Gareth Hughes, Heather Hughes, Luke Hughes, Martin Hughes, Rachel Hughes, Rebecca Hughes, Samantha Hughes, Stephen Hughes, Vikki Hughes, Wesley Hughes, Lukas Huhn, Ching Hui, Ruth Hulbert, Diana Hull, Grace Hull, Robert Hull, Amanda Hulme, Peter Hulme, Wendy Hulse, George Hulston, Ryan Hum, Megan Hume, Charlotte Humphrey, Alasdair Humphries, Amy Humphries, Joanne Humphries, Charlotte Hunt, Fiona Hunt, Jane Hunt, Jonquil Hunt, Kristen Hunt, Luke Hunt, Molly Hunt, Sophie Hunt, Alexandra Hunter, Catherine Hunter, Ewan Hunter, Karl Hunter, Neil Hunter, Ross Hunter, Sophie Hunter, George Huntington, Fuad Huq, Elizabeth Hurditch, Judith Hurdman, Cian Hurley, Katrina Hurley, Mohammed A Husain, Syeda Y Husaini, Coralie Huson, Afreen Hussain, Chreif Hussain, Ibraar Hussain, Ifza Hussain, Mohammad Hussain, Mohammed Hussain, Muhammad Hussain, Reda Hussain, Rizwana Hussain, Samia Hussain, Sanniah Hussain, Yasmin Hussain, Mohammed Hussam El-Din, Samahir F E M Hussein, Ziad Hussein, Rebecca Hussey, Adiel Haqiq Hussien, Anja Hutchinson, Camille Hutchinson, Dorothy Hutchinson, Elizabeth Hutchinson, John Hutchinson, Claire Hutsby, Paula Hutton, Nguyen Quang Huy, Thuong Huyen, Tran Bang Huyen, Nguyen Thi Huyen 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Julie Jones, Kate E Jones, Kimberly Jones, Laura Jones, Laura M Jones, Louise Jones, Mathew Jones, Nancy Jones, Nicola Jones, Olivia Jones, Paul Jones, Philip H Jones, Rhianna Jones, Ruth E Jones, Samantha Jones, Sophie Jones, Stefanie Jones, Steve Jones, Susan Jones, Taya Jones, Thomas Jones, Tim Jones, Tracey Jones, Ramya Jonnalagadda, Rebecca Jordache, Michele Jordan, Sarah Jordan, Abi Jose, Litty Jose, Louise Jose, Sanal Jose, Anna Joseph, Gigee Joseph, P Aiden Joseph, Rosane Joseph, Sibet Joseph, Dhaara Joshi, Mehul Joshi, Pratichi Joshi, Tushar Joshi, Benz Josiah, Lijo Joy, Tiffany Joyce, Hong Ju, Adriel Ju Wen Kwek, Andrew Judd, Edward Jude, Parminder Judge, Jessica Juhl, Sirisha Jujjavarapu, Mark Juniper, Edmund Juszczak, Deepthi Jyothish, Kasamu Kabiru Dawa, Mark Kacar, Nikhil Kadam, Nicole Kader, Ajai Kailey, Matthew Kain, Gail Kakoullis, Azad Kala Bhushan, Richard J K Kalayi, Roobala Kaliannan Periyasami, Efthymia Kallistrou, Thomas Kalmus Eliasz, Seika Kalsoom, Elisa Kam, 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Sudeshna Mandal, Tracy Manders, Lauren Manderson, Justin Mandeville, Tara Mane, Roope Manhas, Carmen Maniero, Ravi Manikonda, Ilham Manjra, Rowan Mankiewitz, Bobby Mann, Jonathan Manning, Sarah Manning, Pascoe Mannion, Katherine Mansi, Katarina Manso, Dina Mansour, Mohamed Mansour, Ramy Mansour, Isheunesu T Mapfunde, Predeesh Mappa, Arrusaw Maqsood, Hemant Maraj, Clare Marchand, Neil Marcus, Anna Marcyniuk, Maria Marecka, Deborah Maren, Gomathi Margabanthu, Jordi Margalef, Lavinia Margarit, Georgios Margaritopoulos, Mike Margarson, Fernandez Maria del Rocio, Teresa Maria Pfyl, Victor Mariano, Ashleigh Maric, Grace Markham, Ben Marks, Maria Marks, P Marks, Emily Marler, Elisabeth Marouzet, Arran Marriott, Cheryl Marriott, Nemonie Marriott, Christopher Marsden, Karen Marsden, Paul Marsden, Sarah Marsden, Tracy Marsden, Cathryn Marsh, Glen Marsh, Robyn Marsh, Adam Marshall, Andrew Marshall, Gail Marshall, Henry Marshall, Jaimie Marshall, Jenna Marshall, Nicola Marshall, Riley Marshall, Steven Marshall, Jennifer Marshall, Emmeline Martin, Gaynor Martin, Hayley Martin, Hope Martin, Jane Martin, Karen Martin, Kate Martin, Laila Martin, Martha Martin, Michael Martin, Noelia Martin, Tim Martin, Winston Martin, Sarah Martin, Tim Martindale, Marcus Martineau, Lauren Martinez, Jose C Martinez Garrido, Juan Martin-Lazaro, Vijay K Maruthamuthu, Bukhari Marwan, Gemma Maryan, Roman Mary-Genetu, Sam Maryosh, Vidan Masani, Allison Mascagni, Diego Maseda, Zandile Maseko, Sheila Mashate, Yasaman Mashhoudi, Al Mashta, Izhaq Masih, Sanna Masih, Nicholas Maskell, Perry Maskell, Prabina Maskey, Matthew Masoli, Julia Mason, Rebecca Mason, Richard Mason, Ruth Mason, Claire Mason, Mohammad Masood, Mohammad T Masood, Syed S M E Masood, Thalia Massa, Ian Massey, Joseph Masters, Aaqib Masud, Lear Matapure, Cristina Matei, Ropafadzo Matewe, Esther Matey, Manraj Matharu, Stephy Mathen, Alex Mather, Nicole Mather, Jonathan Mathers, Joanna Matheson, Amal Mathew, Anna Mathew, Bijoy Mathew, Moncy 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McFlynn, Erin McGarry, Lorcan McGarvey, Alex McGeachan, Frederick McGee, Laura McGenily, Clodagh McGettigan, Michael McGettrick, Christopher McGhee, Fiona McGill, Sarah McGinnity, Neil McGlinchey, Phil McGlone, Deborah McGlynn, Claire McGoldrick, Clare McGoldrick, Elizabeth McGough, Christopher McGovern, Roisin McGovern, Angela McGowan, Anne McGown, Brendan McGrath, Amanda McGregor, Annemarie McGregor, Michael P McGuigan, Heather McGuinness, Sean McGuire, Tara McHugh, Caroline McInnes, Neil McInnes, Jerome McIntosh, Karen McIntyre, Mhairi McIntyre, Lorna McKay, Conor P McKeag, Jacqueline McKeane, Madeleine McKee, Joseph McKeever, Judith McKenna, Shirley McKenna, Mary McKenzie, Donogh McKeogh, Caroline McKerr, Anthony M McKie, Hayley Mckie, Laura Mckie, Gerard McKnight, Heather McLachlan, Andrew McLaren, Barbara McLaren, Nicola McLarty, Danielle Mclaughlan, Maria McLaughlin, James McLay, Mary McLeish, Tina McLennan, Stewart McLure, Anne Marie McMahon, Genevieve McMahon, Mike McMahon, 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Tait, Abigail Takyi, Peter Talbot, Alison Talbot -Smith, James Talbot-Ponsonby, Richard Tallent, Bradley Tallon, Adrian Tan, Bee Theng Tan, Hock Tan, Huey Tan, Jenny Tan, Jun Seng Tan, Keith Tan, WeiTeen Tan, Anand Tana, Alex Tanner, Christina Tanney, Tabitha Tanqueray, Emma Tanton, Anita Tantri, Tm Tanzil-Al-Imran, Hayley Tarft, Priyal Taribagil, Obaid Tarin, Syed Tariq, David Tarpey, Esther Tarr, Lisa Tarrant, Antonia Tasiou, Alex Tate, Margaret L Tate, Matthew Tate, Paul Tate, Kate Tatham, Silvia S Tavares, Vera Tavoukjian, Shao An Isaac Tay, Alexander Taylor, Beverley Taylor, Charlie Taylor, Charlotte A Taylor, David Taylor, Elisabeth Taylor, Holly Taylor, Janet Taylor, Jennifer Taylor, Joanne Taylor, Julie Taylor, Karen Taylor, Leanne Taylor, Margaret Taylor, Matthew Taylor, Melanie Taylor, Natalie Taylor, Rachael Taylor, Rachel Taylor, Samantha Taylor, Suzanne Taylor, Tracey Taylor, Vicky Taylor, Victoria Taylor, Michelle Taylor-Siddons, Thomas Taynton, Amelia Te, Francesca 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Uddin, Ruzena Uddin, Jacinta Ugoji, Edith N Ukaegbu, Mazhar Ul Haq, Waqar Ul Hassan, Zia Ul-Haq, Salamat Ullah, Sana Ullah, Sanda Ullah, Ju Um, Athavan Umaipalan, Anil Umate, Judith Umeadi, Akudo Umeh, Wilfred Umeojiako, Ben Ummat, Emma Underhill, Charlotte Underwood, Jonathan Underwood, Adam Unsworth, Veerpal Uppal, Veerpal S Uppal, Gerry Upson, Masood Ur Rasool, Alison Uriel, Sebastian Urruela, Hiromi Uru, Jess Usher, Miranda Usher, Rebecca Usher, Alexandra Usher-Rea, Andrew Ustianowski, Effua Usuf, Febriansyah Nur Utomo, Hiromi Uzu, Linda C Vaccari, Uddhav Vaghela, Abhay Vaidya, Denny Vail, Bernardas Valecka, Jennifer Valentine, Balan Valeria, Pramodh Vallabhaneni, Nick Vallotton, Luke Vamplew, Ekaterini Vamvakiti, Joannis Vamvakopoulos, Sarah Van Blydenstein, Lucia van Bruggen, Maud van de Venne, Alex van der Meer, Nora van der Stelt, Lynne van Koutrik, Alexander Van Loggerenberg, Joseph Vance-Daniel, Rama Vancheeswaran, Samuel I Vandeyoon, Padma Vankayalapati, Piyush Vanmali, Chloe Vansomeren, William Van't Hoff, Sejal Vara, Stehen J Vardy, Anu Varghese, Maria Varghese, William Varney, Giulia Varnier, Anna-Nektaria Varouxaki, Resti Varquez, Valeria Vasadi, Olivia Vass, Katherine Vassell, Vimal Vasu, Vasanthi Vasudevan, Manu Vatish, Sue Vaughan, Heloyes Vayalaman, Darini Vayapooree, Christopher Vaz, Niki Veale, Sachuda Veerasamy, Swati Velankar, Luxmi Velauthar, Neyme Veli, Nicola Vella, Aravind Velugupati, Anitha Velusamy, Ian Venables, Mavi Venditti, Ramya Venkataramakrishnan, Richard Venn, Robert Venn, Michelle Venter, Lyn Ventilacion, Joanne Vere, Mark Veres, Stefania Vergnano, Will Verling, Amit Verma, Rachel Vernall, Britney Vernon, Mark Vertue, Liberty Verueco, Jerik Verula, Anna Veterini, Natalie Vethanayagam, Shambavi Vettikumaran, Lucy Veys, Carinna Vickers, Saji Victor, SImpson Victoria, Celine P Vidaillac, Jennifer Vidler, Bavithra Vijayakumar, Vinod W Vijayaraghavan Nalini, Brigita Vilcinskaite, Alicija Vileito, Neringa Vilimiene, Lynn Vinall, Sylvia Vinay, Latha Vinayakarao, Olivia Vincent, Rachel Vincent, Rosie Vincent, Pritpal Virdee, Emma Virgilio, Abdullah M Virk, Elisa Visentin, Martina Vitaglione, Karunakaran Vithian, Sorice Vittoria, Sankkita Vivekananthan, Elena Vlad, Ben Vlies, Linda von Oven, Claire Vooght, Kim Thi Vu Thai, Kritchai Vutipongsatorn, Alain Vuylsteke, Eleftheria Vyras, Richard Wach, Beverley Wadams, Susan Wadd, Natalia Waddington, Phillip Wade, Jonathan Wadsley, Kirsten Wadsworth, Syed E I Wafa, Daniel Wagstaff, Lynda Wagstaff, Dalia Wahab, Zaroug Wahbi, Abiodun Waheed Adigun, Sawan Waidyanatha, Alicia Waite, Rachel Wake, Alice Wakefield, William Wakeford, Fiona Wakinshaw, Emma Waldeck, Andrew Walden, Lorna Walding, Alexandria Waldron, Joanne Waldron, Emma Wales, Batool Wali, Danielle Walker, Gemma Walker, Harriet Walker, Ian Walker, Kevin Walker, Kim Walker, Lauren Walker, Linda Walker, Lynne Walker, Olivia Walker, Rachel Walker, Rebecca Walker, Sara Walker, Susan Walker, Gillian Wallace, Rebecca Wallbutton, Jessica Wallen, Karl Wallendszus, Arabella Waller, Rosemary Waller, Gabiel Wallis, Gabriel Wallis, Louise Wallis, Matthew Wallis, Emma Walmsley, Donna Walsh, Elizabeth Walsh, Livia Walsh, Deborah Walstow, Daniel Walter, Alex Walters, Holt Walters, James Walters, Jocelyn Walters, Eileen Walton, Lucy Walton, Maisie Walton, Michael Walton, Olivia Walton, Sharon Walton, Susan Walton, Mandy Wan, Junita Wanda, Mary Wands, Rachel Wane, Frank Wang, Nick Wang, Ran Wang, Shentong Wang, Deborah Warbrick, Samantha Warburton, Christopher Ward, Deborah Ward, Emma Ward, Hannah Ward, Janice Ward, Joanna Ward, Luke Ward, Nicola Ward, Rachael Ward, Thomas Ward, Tom Ward, Scott A Warden, Gibril Wardere, Steve Wardle, Hassan Wardy, Gareth Waring, Scott Waring, Jenny Warmington, Ben Warner, Christian Warner, Lewis Warnock, Sarah Warran, Jade Warren, Lisa Warren, Rebecca Warren, Yolanda Warren, Davina Warrender, Hannah Warren-Miell, Adilia Warris, Gill Warwick, Helen Wassall, Sean Wasserman, Elizabeth Wasson, Hazel J Watchorn, Holly Waterfall, Abby Waters, Donald Waters, Mark Waterstone, Abigail Watkin, Catherine Watkins, Catrin Watkins, Eleanor Watkins, Karen Watkins, Lynn Watkins, Abigail Watson, Adam J R Watson, Ekaterina Watson, Eleanor Watson, Felicity Watson, J G R Watson, Louisa Watson, Paul Watson, Rebecca Watson, Robert Watson, Kathleen Watson, Malcolm Watters, Donna Watterson, Khairiah Wattimena, Daniel Watts, John Watts, Merlin Watts, Victoria Waugh, Emma Wayman, Matthew Wayman, Akhlaq Wazir, Mark Weatherhead, Nick Weatherly, Chloe Webb, Claire Webb, Hayley Webb, Kathryn Webb, Kylie Webb, Stephen Webb, Cheryl Websdale, Deborah Webster, Ian Webster, Jemma Webster, Tim Webster, Jordan Wedlin, Ling Wee, Rebecca Weerakoon, Thanuja Weerasinghe, Janaka Weeratunga, Maria Weetman, Shuying Wei, Immo Weichert, Emma Welch, Hugh Welch, James Welch, Leanne Welch, Steven Welch, Benjamin Welham, Samantha Weller, Lucy Wellings, Brian Wells, Susan Wellstead, Berni Welsh, Richard Welsh, Ingeborg Welters, Rachael Welton, Victoria Wenn, Lauren Wentworth, Joan Wesonga, Kate Wesseldine, Joe West, Magdelena West, Raha West, Ruth West, Sophie West, Luke Western, Ruth Westhead, Heather Weston, Alice Westwood, Kelly Westwood, Sharon Westwood, Bill Wetherill, Sharon Wheaver, Helen Wheeler, Ben Whelan, Matthew Whelband, Amanda Whileman, Alison Whitcher, Andrew White, Ayesha White, Benjamin White, Catherine White, Christopher White, Duncan White, James White, Jonathan White, Katie White, Marie White, Nick White, Nikki White, Sarah White, Sonia White, Tracey White, Catherine Whitehead, Kelly Whitehorn, Anne Whitehouse, Claire Whitehouse, Tony Whitehouse, Julia Whiteley, Louiza Whiteley, Sophie Whiteley, Rachael Whitham, Gabriel Whitlingum, David Whitmore, Elizabeth Whittaker, Lindsay Whittam, Ashley Whittington, Helen Whittle, Robert Whittle, Eunice Wiafe, Lou Wiblin, Olivia Wickens, John Widdrington, Jason Wieboldt, Hannah Wieringa, Cornelia Wiesender, Laura Wiffen, Andrew Wight, Ashleigh Wignall, Christopher Wignall, Annamaria Wilce, Danielle Wilcock, Emma Wilcock, Louise Wilcox, Ben Wild, Laura Wild, Stephen Wild, Michael Wilde, Laura Wilding, Peter Wilding, Tracey Wildsmith, Joe Wileman, Joy Wiles, Kate Wiles, Elva Wilhelmsen, Thomas Wiliams, Janet Wilkie, David Wilkin, Hannah Wilkins, Joy Wilkins, Suzanne Wilkins, Iain Wilkinson, Lesley Wilkinson, Nicola Wilkinson, Sophia Wilkinson, Susan Wilkinson, Tim Wilkinson, Sylvia Willetts, Aimee Williams, Alexandra Williams, Alison Williams, Angharad Williams, Anna Williams, Ava Williams, Carl Williams, Caroline V Williams, Claire Williams, Dewi Williams, Eleri Williams, Gail Williams, Gemma Williams, Gina Williams, Hannah Williams, Heledd Williams, James Williams, Jennie Williams, Jill Williams, John Williams, Joseph Williams, Karen Williams, Kathryn Williams, Mandy Williams, Marie Williams, Mark Williams, Matthew Williams, Patricia Williams, Penny Williams, Rachel Williams, Robin Williams, Rupert Williams, Samson Williams, Sarah Williams, Sophie Williams, Steffan Williams, Tamanna Williams, Tania Williams, Annie Williamson, Cath Williamson, Catherine Williamson, Dawn Williamson, James D Williamson, Jodie Williamson, Rachel Williamson, Helen Williamson, Elaine Willis, Elizabeth Willis, Emily Willis, Heather Willis, Herika Willis, Joanna Willis, Louise Wills, Lucy Willsher, Catherine Willshire, Francesca Willson, Jayne Willson, Alison Wilson, Andrea Wilson, Anna Wilson, Antoinette Wilson, Billy Wilson, David Wilson, Imogen Wilson, James Wilson, Karen Wilson, Kate Wilson, Kristy-Ann Wilson, Lucinda Wilson, Mark Wilson, Stephen Wilson, Toni Wilson, John Wilson, Khin Lei Yee Win, Marlar Win, Than Win, Tin Tin Win, Wut Yee Win Win, Lucinda Winckworth, Laura Winder, Piers Winder, Stuart Winearl, Helen Winmill, Simon Winn, Carmen Winpenny, Helen Winslow, Helen Winter, Jonathan Winter, Barbara Winter-Goodwin, Joseph Winterton, Hannah Winwood, Jack Wischhusen, Stephen Wisdom, Matthew Wise, Martin Wiselka, Rebecca Wiseman, Sophie Wiseman, Steven Wishart, Tabitha WIshlade, Eric Witele, Nicholas Withers, Janet Wittes, Donna Wixted, Therese Wodehouse, Will Wolf, Nicola Wolff, Kirsten Wolffsohn, Rebecca Wolf-Roberts, Elena Wolodimeroff, Adam Wolstencroft, Alan Wong, Charlotte Wong, Chi-Hung Wong, Chi-Man Wong, Edwin Wong, Jessica S Y Wong, Kit Y Wong, Mei Yin Wong, Nick Wong, Sam Wong, Ting Wong, Aaron B Wongkyezeng, Amanda Wood, Caroline Wood, Dianne Wood, Fiona Wood, Gordon Wood, Hannah Wood, Jennifer Wood, Joe Wood, Lisa Wood, Louise Wood, Madeleine Wood, Stephen Wood, Tracy Wood, Katharine Woodall, Rebecca Woodfield, Christopher Woodford, Elizabeth Woodford, Jill Woodford, Louise Woodhead, Timothy Woodhead, Philip Woodland, Marc Woodman, Myles Woodman, Stephen Woodmansey, Charlotte Woods, Jane Woods, Katherine Woods, Sarah Woods, Zoe Woodward, Megan Woolcock, Gemma Wooldridge, Rebecca Woolf, Chris Woollard, Christopher Woollard, Louisa Woollen, Emma Woolley, Jade Woolley, Daniel Woosey, Dan Wootton, Joanne Wootton, Daniel Worley, Stephy Worton, Jonathan Wraight, Maria Wray, Kim Wren, Lynn Wren, Caroline Wrey Brown, Catherine Wright, Demi Wright, Francesca Wright, Holly Wright, Imogen Wright, Lianne Wright, Rachel Wright, Sarah Wright, Stephanie Wright, Tim Wright, Caroline Wroe, Hannah Wroe, Henry Wu, Peishan Wu, Pensee Wu, Jonathan Wubetu, Fitria Wulandari, Retno Wulandari, Subie Wurie, Craig Wyatt, Frederick Wyn-Griffiths, Inez Wynter, Bindhu Xavier, Arnold Xhikola, Bingru E Xia, Zhongyang Xia, Effua Yacoba, Santosh Yadav, Masseh Yakubi, May Yan, Yuuki Yanagisawa, Freda Yang, Yingjia Yang, Michael Yanney, Woei Lin Yap, Nabil Yaqoob, Salima Yasmin, Bryan Yates, David Yates, Edward Yates, Helen Yates, Thomas Yates, Mark Yates, Jessica Ye, Charlotte Yearwood Martin, Khin Yein, Fiona Yelnoorkar, Lam Minh Yen, Alastair Yeoh, Chun Yu Yeung, Peter Yew, Durgesh Yewatkar, Laura Ylquimiche Melly, Inez Ynter, H Yong, Jemma Yorke, Jasmine Youens, Abdel Younes Ibrahim, Eoin Young, Gail Young, Louise Young, Asfand Yousafzar, Sajeda Youssouf, Ahmed Yousuf, Hartantri Yovita, Chrissie Yu, Jack S J Yuan, Nindya Yufaniaputri, Bernard Yung, Daniel Yusef, Said Yusef, Intekhab Yusuf, Anna-Sophia Zafar, Silvia Zagalo, Su Zaher, Aqsa Zahoor, Mahrukh Zainab, Thornton Zak, Kareem Zaki, Nabhan Zakir, Kasia Zalewska, Ane Zamalloa, Mohsin Zaman, Shakir Zaman, Julie Zamikula, Louise Zammit, Marie Zammit-Mangion, Marcelina Zawadzka, Mohammed Zayed, Esther Zebracki, Daniel Zehnder, Lisa Zeidan, Darius Zeinali, Jing Zhang, Xiaobei Zhao, Dongling Zheng, Doreen Zhu, Madiha Zia, Omar Zibdeh, Rabia Zill-E-Huma, Ei Thankt Zin, Eva Zincone, Garikai Zindoga, Eleanor Zinkin, Vivian Zinyemba, Christos Zipitis, Letizia Zitter, Arkadiusz Zmierczak, Garazi Zubikarai, Azam Zubir, Naz Zuhra, Rasha Zulaikha, Sabrina Zulfikar, Carol Zullo, Ana Zuriaga-Alvaro, University of St Andrews. Infection and Global Health Division, University of St Andrews. School of Medicine, and Group, RECOVERY Collaborative
Subjects: Adult, Male, Hypoxia/etiology, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, 3rd-DAS, General Medicine, Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use, AC, Dexamethasone/therapeutic use, Hospitals, Oxygen, Treatment Outcome, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, MCP, Humans, Female
Abstract: Background Low-dose corticosteroids have been shown to reduce mortality for patients with COVID-19 requiring oxygen or ventilatory support (non-invasive mechanical ventilation, invasive mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). We evaluated the use of a higher dose of corticosteroids in this patient group. Methods This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing multiple possible treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19. Eligible and consenting adult patients with clinical evidence of hypoxia (ie, receiving oxygen or with oxygen saturation Findings Between May 25, 2021, and May 13, 2022, 1272 patients with COVID-19 and hypoxia receiving no oxygen (eight [1%]) or simple oxygen only (1264 [99%]) were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus higher dose corticosteroids (659 patients) versus usual care alone (613 patients, of whom 87% received low-dose corticosteroids during the follow-up period). Of those randomly assigned, 745 (59%) were in Asia, 512 (40%) in the UK, and 15 (1%) in Africa. 248 (19%) had diabetes and 769 (60%) were male. Overall, 123 (19%) of 659 patients allocated to higher dose corticosteroids versus 75 (12%) of 613 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·59 [95% CI 1·20–2·10]; p=0·0012). There was also an excess of pneumonia reported to be due to non-COVID infection (64 cases [10%] vs 37 cases [6%]; absolute difference 3·7% [95% CI 0·7–6·6]) and an increase in hyperglycaemia requiring increased insulin dose (142 [22%] vs 87 [14%]; absolute difference 7·4% [95% CI 3·2–11·5]). Interpretation In patients hospitalised for COVID-19 with clinical hypoxia who required either no oxygen or simple oxygen only, higher dose corticosteroids significantly increased the risk of death compared with usual care, which included low-dose corticosteroids. The RECOVERY trial continues to assess the effects of higher dose corticosteroids in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 who require non-invasive ventilation, invasive mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Funding UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), National Institute of Health and Care Research, and Wellcome Trust.
Published: 2023
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48. Incremental Advances to Address Challenges in Long-Term Strategic Energy Planning in LMICs

Author: Carla Cannone, Pooya Hoseinpoori, Leigh Martindale, Elizabeth M. Tennyson, Francesco Gardumi, Lucas Somavilla Croxatto, Steve Pye, Yacob Mulugetta, Ioannis Vrochidis, Satheesh Krishnamurthy, Taco Niet, John Harrison, Rudolf Yeganyan, Martin Mutembei, Adam Hawkes, Lara Allen, Will Blyth, and Mark Howells
Abstract: The climate crisis requires developing countries to urgently decarbonize energy systems and mobilize finance while balancing competing priorities such as economic growth, energy security, environmental sustainability, and social development. However, many developing countries face challenges in developing long-term energy planning strategies, including limited capacity and reliance on external consultants. To address these issues, 21 international organizations and research institutions have developed five strategic principles for energy planning: national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, human capacity development, analysis robustness, and transparency and accessibility of data and tools. This paper discusses joint efforts to promote and apply these principles using science-based evidence and analytical modelling tools, such as the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) and the power system IRENA FlexTool. These tools are part of a suite of emerging modelling tools to support climate-compatible development policies and have been included in accessible teaching material, online courses, summer schools, and capacity development programs.
Published: 2023
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49. Morocco's Coal to Clean Journey: Optimised Pathways for Decarbonisation and Energy Security

Author: Natasha Harland, Malte Jansen, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, Carla Cannone, and Mark Howells
Abstract: Morocco depends on imported fossil fuels for 90% of its primary energy supply. This makes the country vulnerable to unstable fuel prices and supply cut-offs, and the reliance on fossil fuels releases CO2 emissions which contribute to climate change. Renewable energy expansion, facilitated by Morocco’s high potential for solar and wind capacity, could allow the country to improve its energy security and decarbonise its energy system, in line with its response to the Paris Agreement. This study uses OSeMOSYS (the Open Source Energy Modelling System) to produce six cost-minimised decarbonisation scenarios for Morocco that consider energy independence. The results show that Morocco can achieve most of its decarbonisation targets through bulk wind and solar energy, with a coal phase-out being possible by 2031 at the latest. Natural gas is replaced by biomass and nuclear energy, with some evidence that fuel imports may stay relevant for the foreseeable future. We conclude with policy recommendations. The study can provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Morocco's energy sector to achieve optimal pathways for decarbonisation.
Published: 2023
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50. Beyond the Dams - Combatting Hydropower Over-reliance & Securing Pathways for a Low-carbon Future for Laos' Electricity Sector using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Author: Sebastian Wong, Joeri Rogelj, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, Carla Cannone, and Mark Howells
Abstract: Since the onset of the millennium, Laos has seen exponential growth in the past decades, becoming one of the fastest growing economies of the 21st century. Much of its success owes to its emerging position as ‘the battery of Southeast Asia’ through the exportation of mostly hydropower. While this has brought about almost-universal praise as the beacon of ‘sustainable development’, the detractors of this notion are not without merit. A growing amount of evidence demonstrates that if Laos continues hydropower expansion in its current trajectory, a multitude of implications can stand to disenfranchise the most marginalised in Laos and beyond. Alongside this predicament, much of the world is seeking to set a net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in order to avoid the most extreme consequences of the climate crisis. This report seeks to draw up potential pathways to both pressing issues through utilising OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System), a long-term energy system modelling tool, to create seven scenarios that would provide insight into what pathways there are for the Lao electricity sector to wean its hydropower dependency and still be low-carbon in different capacities. The modelling output suggests that a low-carbon future not overly-reliant on hydropower is highly feasible and five policy recommendations have transpired through drawing on common themes and key insights of the modelling output. They include the prioritisation and promotion of non-hydro RE, most namely biomass as it serves to replace coal within Laos’ generation mix, the encouragement of small-scale electricity production, transmission and distribution grid improvements and the establishment of an independent power sector regulator. Further research is encouraged to reflect the dynamic changes within RE technology development and improved upon datasets in order for increased accuracy, as well as analysis on a whole energy system level.
Published: 2023
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