1. Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
- Author
-
Renée Carlton, Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes, Ian C. Enochs, Chris T. Perry, Nuria Estrada-Saldívar, Kyle M. Morgan, Peter J. Mumby, Robert S. Steneck, Nicholas A. J. Graham, Evan N. Edinger, Gary N. Murphy, Paul S. Kench, Fraser A. Januchowski-Hartley, Shaun K. Wilson, Scott G. Smithers, Lauren Valentino, Chancey MacDonald, Damian P. Thomson, Adam Suchley, Michael D. E. Haywood, Robert Boenish, Graham Kolodziej, Margaret Wilson, Derek P. Manzello, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Marine Spatial Ecology Laboratory [Brisbane] (MSEL), University of Queensland [Brisbane], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), and University of Miami [Coral Gables]
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate Change ,Oceans and Seas ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,Carbonates ,01 natural sciences ,Ecosystem services ,Animals ,Seawater ,14. Life underwater ,Environmental degradation ,Reef ,Atlantic Ocean ,Indian Ocean ,Sea level ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,geography ,Multidisciplinary ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Coral Reefs ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Coral reef ,Models, Theoretical ,Anthozoa ,Water depth ,Oceanography ,13. Climate action ,Coral cover ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,Environmental science ,Accretion (coastal management) - Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF