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Resumo: Cadernos de Saúde Pública (CSP) completa, em 2024, 40 anos de publicação ininterrupta. Este artigo analisa a trajetória da revista e projeta o futuro diante dos desafios contemporâneos da publicação científica do campo da Saúde Coletiva. O estudo foi desenvolvido com base na análise dos principais marcos da política editorial e na identificação dos temas mais publicados. Três períodos foram delimitados. No “início” (1985 a 1990), a revista tinha circulação restrita, com periodicidade trimestral. A palavra “epidemiologia”, usada em contexto descritivo, se sobressai. Segue-se o período de “consolidação” (1991 a outubro de 2012), quando CSP é indexado na base bibliográfica Index Medicus-MEDLINE e tem seu acervo online publicado pela Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO), ampliando o alcance dos artigos junto à academia. Nesse momento, torna-se visível o conjunto de palavras que caracterizam o campo da política, do planejamento e da gestão, e surgem os termos relacionados ao método epidemiológico. O período “diversidade” (novembro de 2012 a novembro de 2023) apresenta a obrigatoriedade de um editor externo aos quadros da Fundação Oswaldo Cruz entre os três coeditores-chefes, visando garantir a independência editorial. Novas atividades e a frequência similar entre os cinco termos mais encontrados capturam a “diversidade”. Inúmeras questões permeiam a publicação científica em 2024: Ciência Aberta não comercial, inteligência artificial, valorização da ciência, divulgação científica, entre outros. Enfrentar os novos desafios, de forma ética e transparente, permitirá avanços futuros, mantendo a credibilidade de CSP junto a autores e leitores e seu compromisso com a melhoria das condições de vida e de saúde das populações.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To present the urban arboviruses (dengue, zika and chikungunya) stratification methodology by the territorial receptivity Index, an instrument for the surveillance and control of these diseases, which considers the heterogeneity of an intra-municipal territory. METHODS Ecological study that uses as unit of analysis the areas covered by health centers in Belo Horizonte. For the development of a territorial receptivity index, indicators of socio-environmental determination of urban arboviruses were selected in order to integrate the analysis of main components. The resulting components were weighted by the analytic hierarchy process and combined via map algebra. RESULTS The territorial receptivity index showed great heterogeneity of urban infrastructure conditions. The areas classified with high and very high receptivity correspond to approximately 33% of the occupied area and are mainly concentrated in the administrative planning regions of East, Northeast, North, West, and Barreiro, especially in areas surrounding the municipality. When the density of dengue cases and Aedes eggs, from 2016, were superimposed with the stratification by the index of territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses, areas of very high receptivity had a high density of cases and Aedes eggs – higher than that observed in other areas of the city, which corresponds to a very small percentage of the municipal territory (13.5%). CONCLUSION The analyses indicate the need for the development of adequate surveillance and control actions for each context, overcoming the logic of homogeneous allocation throughout the territory.

Resumo Fundamento: O infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM), principal causa de morte no Brasil, apresenta disparidades regionais nas tendências temporais das taxas de mortalidade dos últimos anos. Estudos anteriores de tendências temporais não fizeram correção para os códigos-lixo de causas de mortalidade, o que pode ter enviesado as estimativas. Objetivo: Analisar as desigualdades regionais e por sexo na tendência de mortalidade por IAM no Brasil no período de 1996 a 2016. Métodos: Estudo de séries temporais de 21 anos (1996 a 2016). Os dados são do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e das estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Foram feitas correções de óbitos por causas mal definidas, códigos-lixo e sub-registro. As séries temporais desagregadas por grandes regiões, sexo, capitais e interior foram analisadas utilizando a técnica de regressão linear segmentada por Jointpoint. O nível de significância estatística adotado foi de 5%. Resultados: No período, a mortalidade diminuiu mais acentuadamente no sexo feminino (–2,2%; IC 95%: –2,5; –1,9) do que no masculino (–1,7%; IC 95%: –1,9; –1,4), e mais nas capitais (–3,8%; IC 95%: –4,3; –3,3) do que no interior (–1,5%; IC 95%: –1,8; –1,3). Foram verificadas desigualdades regionais com aumento para homens residentes no interior do Norte (3,3; IC 95%: 1,3; 5,4) e Nordeste (1,3%; IC 95%: 1,0; 1,6). O nível de significância estatística adotado foi de 5%. As taxas de mortalidade após correções, principalmente pela redistribuição dos códigos-lixo, apresentaram expressiva diferença em relação às estimativas sem correções. Conclusões: Embora a mortalidade por IAM apresente redução no Brasil nos últimos anos, essa tendência é desigual segundo região e sexo. Desse modo, as correções dos números de óbitos são essenciais para estimativas mais fidedignas.

Three key elements are the drivers of Aedes-borne disease: mosquito infestation, virus circulating, and susceptible human population. However, information on these aspects is not easily available in low- and middle-income countries. We analysed data on factors that influence one or more of those elements to study the first chikungunya epidemic in Rio de Janeiro city in 2016. Using spatio-temporal models, under the Bayesian framework, we estimated the association of those factors with chikungunya reported cases by neighbourhood and week. To estimate the minimum temperature effect in a non-linear fashion, we used a transfer function considering an instantaneous effect and propagation of a proportion of such effect to future times. The sociodevelopment index and the proportion of green areas (areas with agriculture, swamps and shoals, tree and shrub cover, and woody-grass cover) were included in the model with time-varying coefficients, allowing us to explore how their associations with the number of cases change throughout the epidemic. There were 13627 chikungunya cases in the study period. The sociodevelopment index presented the strongest association, inversely related to the risk of cases. Such association was more pronounced in the first weeks, indicating that socioeconomically vulnerable neighbourhoods were affected first and hardest by the epidemic. The proportion of green areas effect was null for most weeks. The temperature was directly associated with the risk of chikungunya for most neighbourhoods, with different decaying patterns. The temperature effect persisted longer where the epidemic was concentrated. In such locations, interventions should be designed to be continuous and to work in the long term. We observed that the role of the covariates changes over time. Therefore, time-varying coefficients should be widely incorporated when modelling Aedes-borne diseases. Our model contributed to the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of an urban Aedes-borne disease introduction in a tropical metropolitan city.

Summary: Background: Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk by level of urbanisation in Brazil using a spatiotemporal model. Methods: We combined distributed lag non-linear models with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the relative risk (RR) of dengue and a drought severity index. We fit the model to monthly dengue case data for the 558 microregions of Brazil between January, 2001, and January, 2019, accounting for unobserved confounding factors, spatial autocorrelation, seasonality, and interannual variability. We assessed the variation in RR by level of urbanisation through an interaction between the drought severity index and urbanisation. We also assessed the effect of hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk in areas with a high frequency of water supply shortages. Findings: The dataset included 12 895 293 dengue cases reported between 2001 and 2019 in Brazil. Overall, the risk of dengue increased between 0–3 months after extremely wet conditions (maximum RR at 1 month lag 1·56 [95% CI 1·41–1·73]) and 3–5 months after drought conditions (maximum RR at 4 months lag 1·43 [1·22–1·67]). Including a linear interaction between the drought severity index and level of urbanisation improved the model fit and showed the risk of dengue was higher in more rural areas than highly urbanised areas during extremely wet conditions (maximum RR 1·77 [1·32–2·37] at 0 months lag vs maximum RR 1·58 [1·39–1·81] at 2 months lag), but higher in highly urbanised areas than rural areas after extreme drought (maximum RR 1·60 [1·33–1·92] vs 1·15 [1·08–1·22], both at 4 months lag). We also found the dengue risk following extreme drought was higher in areas that had a higher frequency of water supply shortages. Interpretation: Wet conditions and extreme drought can increase the risk of dengue with different delays. The risk associated with extremely wet conditions was higher in more rural areas and the risk associated with extreme drought was exacerbated in highly urbanised areas, which have water shortages and intermittent water supply during droughts. These findings have implications for targeting mosquito control activities in poorly serviced urban areas, not only during the wet and warm season, but also during drought periods. Funding: Royal Society, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico. Translation: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Background: Globally, incidence of dengue fever has increased more than 30-times in the past 50 years, with outbreaks becoming frequent in tropical and subtropical countries. This rapid emergence has been attributed to increased urbanisation, globalisation, international mobility, and climate change. Brazil is endemic to all four dengue virus serotypes with outbreaks occurring in every region of the country. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue diffusion, with some regions of Brazil being relatively protected from outbreaks. These regions included areas in the south of the country where seasonal temperatures were too cold for vectors to efficiently transmit the virus, regions of the western Amazon that were isolated from infectious hosts and vectors, and mountainous regions of southeast Brazil. Methods: In this ecological modelling study, we used a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to understand the effect of climate variation, connectivity between cities, and socioeconomic factors, such as urbanisation, on the expansion of the permanent dengue virus transmission zone in Brazil. We obtained monthly dengue fever case data from 5560 municipalities in Brazil for 2001–19 from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) surveillance system. The model was fitted to an outbreak indicator defined as exceeding 300 cases per 100 000 inhabitants per year. Fixed effects included climate suitability and hydrometeorological variables obtained from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK), the level of influence of a city from the Brazilian Regiōes de Influência das Cidades study, and socioeconomic factors, such as urbanisation, from census data. Spatiotemporal random effects were included to account for unobserved heterogeneity, spatial autocorrelation, and temporal trends. Findings: Data from the past 10 years showed that pre-identified geographical barriers to dengue virus transmission are being eroded or destroyed completely. The emergence of dengue fever outbreaks in south Brazil coincided with an increase in the number of months per year with temperatures suitable for transmission. Interpretation: Understanding the factors that lead to the erosion of barriers to dengue virus transmission will help identify regions at risk of future outbreaks, and improve public health preparedness to emerging and re-emerging diseases. Funding: The Royal Society.

Resumo Objetivo Analisar a concordância/discrepância entre autoimagem corporal e classificação do índice de massa corporal (IMC), segundo tipo de alimentação e influências do ambiente. Métodos Análise transversal de 195 crianças pré-púberes (≥5 anos), atendidas na Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS), Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. O IMC foi classificado conforme escore-z. Avaliou-se a autoimagem pela escala de silhuetas para crianças. Estimou-se a associação entre as covariáveis e subestimação/superestimação do IMC em relação à autoimagem, em modelo multinomial. Resultados Crianças com sobrepeso subestimaram seu IMC, em comparação com a autoimagem, em maior proporção (58,6%) que aquelas com obesidade (22,0%) ou com eutrofia (49,0%). Essa dissociação correlacionou-se com a participação no programa de transferência de renda (RC=2,01 - IC95% 1,04;3,90) e com o consumo diário de alimentos açucarados (RC=3,88 - IC95% 1,05;14,39). Conclusão A subestimação do IMC entre as crianças com excesso de peso deve ser considerada pela APS, visando aperfeiçoar as práticas de intervenção.

Abstract: A comprehensive cohort study including an entomological surveillance component can contribute to our knowledge of clinical aspects and transmission patterns of arbovirosis. This article describes the implementation of a populational-based birth cohort study that included an entomological surveillance component, and its associated challenges in a low-income community of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The participants were recruited in two periods: from 2012 to 2014, and from 2015 to 2017. The children had scheduled pediatric consultations and in case of fever. Epidemiological, clinical data and biological samples were collected at pediatric visits. Active febrile surveillance was performed by telephone calls, social networking, message apps, and household visits. A total of 387 newborns and 332 new children were included during the first and second recruitment periods, respectively. By July 2017, there were 451 children on follow-up. During the study, 2,759 pediatric visits were performed: 1,783 asymptomatic and 976 febrile/rash consultations. The number of febrile or rash consultations increased 3.5-fold after the use of media tools for surveillance. No temporal pattern, seasonality or peak of febrile cases was observed during the study period. A total of 10,105 adult mosquitoes (including 3,523 Aedes spp. and 6,582 Culex quinquefasciatus) and 46,047 Aedes eggs were collected from households, schools, and key sites. Although challenging, this structured sentinel populational-based birth cohort is relevant to the knowledge of risks and awareness of emerging pathogens.

Aedes albopictus, originally considered as a secondary vector for arbovirus transmission, especially in areas where this species co-exist with Aedes aegypti, has been described in most regions of the world. Dispersion and domiciliation of Ae. albopictus in a complex of densely urbanized slums in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, was evidenced. In this study, we tested the hypotheses that 1) Ae. albopictus distribution in urban slums is negatively related to distance from vegetation, and 2) these vectors have taken on a domestic life style with a portion of the population feeding, ovipositing, and resting indoors. To do this, we developed an integrated surveillance proposal, aiming to detect the presence and abundance of Aedes mosquitoes. The study, based on a febrile syndrome surveillance system in a cohort of infants living in the slum complex, was performed on a weekly basis between February 2014 and April 2017. A total of 8,418 adult mosquitoes (3,052 Ae. aegypti, 44 Ae. albopictus, 16 Ae. scapularis, 4 Ae. fluviatilis and 5,302 Culex quinquefasciatus) were collected by direct aspiration and 46,047 Aedes spp. eggs were collected by oviposition traps. The Asian tiger mosquito, Ae. albopictus, was aspirated in its adult form (n = 44), and immature forms of this species (n = 12) were identified from the eggs collected by the ovitraps. In most collection sites, co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was observed. Key-sites, such as junkyards, thrift stores, factories, tire repair shops and garages, had the higher abundance of Ae. albopictus, followed by schools and households. We collected Ae. albopictus at up to 400 meters to the nearest vegetation cover. The log transformed (n+1) number of females Ae. albopictus captured at each collection point was inversely related to the distance to the nearest vegetation border. These results show that Ae. albopictus, a competent vector for important arboviruses and more commonly found in areas with higher vegetation coverage, is present and spread in neglected and densely urbanized areas, being collected at a long distance from the typical encounter areas for this species. Besides, as Ae. albopictus can easily move between sylvatic and urban environment, the entomological monitoring of Ae. albopictus should be an integral part of mosquito surveillance and control. Finally, key-sites, characterized by high human influx and presence of potential Aedes breeding sites, should be included in entomological monitoring.

Abstract Objectives: to measure food expenditure for children living in a favela in Rio de Janeiro, and compare this expenditure to the cost of a healthy diet, based on local prices. Methods: panel study, with three collection dates – 2004, 2008 and 2012 – conducted in children (5 to 9 years old) in Manguinhos. Food prices were collected by way of a sample of local food stores in 2013 and deflated using indicators specific to food prices. Twenty-four hour diet recall, qualitative food frequency and the Brazilian food pyramid adequate for the age group were used to estimate the observed expenditure and the cost of a healthy diet. Results: in 2004, 49.2% of the families interviewed lived on less than US$1 per person/day and 9.7% in 2012.In the same period, the percentage of students eating free school meals dropped from 73% to 49%. Money spent on food was concentrated on sugary products (32.4%) and snacks (12.5%). The estimated monthly cost of a healthy diet (US$142) was lower than the observed expenditure (US$176). Conclusions: increased purchasing power has not led to healthier food choices. The common belief that poor people choose food based on prices was rejected by the present study. Other factors certainly play an important role in food purchasing decisions.

Abstract The proportion of non-participation in cohort studies, if associated with both the exposure and the probability of occurrence of the event, can introduce bias in the estimates of interest. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of participation and its characteristics in longitudinal studies. A systematic review (MEDLINE, Scopus and Web of Science) for articles describing the proportion of participation in the baseline of cohort studies was performed. Among the 2,964 initially identified, 50 were selected. The average proportion of participation was 64.7%. Using a meta-regression model with mixed effects, only age, year of baseline contact and study region (borderline) were associated with participation. Considering the decrease in participation in recent years, and the cost of cohort studies, it is essential to gather information to assess the potential for non-participation, before committing resources. Finally, journals should require the presentation of this information in the papers.

Resumo O objetivo foi discutir os limites do modelo de avaliação quantitativa da produção científica na Saúde Coletiva. Foi realizada uma análise da produção científica dos docentes nas subáreas da Saúde Coletiva no triênio 2010-2012. Foram comparadas as distribuições da pontuação anual média de docentes segundo subáreas. Estimou-se a probabilidade de 60% dos docentes do programa de pós-graduação (PPG) terem pontuação igual ou acima do P50 da área (Muito Bom). A subárea Epidemiologia apresentou mediana da pontuação anual dos docentes significativamente maior. PPGs cuja composição inclui 60% ou mais de docentes da subárea Epidemiologia e menos de 10% da subárea Ciências Sociais e Humanas em Saúde apresentaram probabilidade significativamente maior de alcançar o nível Muito Bom. As desigualdades constatadas nas medidas da produção científica entre as subáreas da Saúde Coletiva apontam para a necessidade de se repensar a avaliação, de forma a não reproduzir iniquidades que gerem consequências nocivas para a diversidade do campo.

The objectives were to analyze one-year survival and mortality predictors in patients with fracture of the proximal femur (low/moderate trauma). A prospective cohort was formed by inviting all patients hospitalized in the Orthopedic Ward of the second largest hospital in Portugal (May 2008-April 2009). Survival was assessed at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after fracture and related to demographic factors, lifestyle, and clinical history, as well as to data from medical records (fracture type, surgery date, surgical treatment, and preoperative risk). Of the 340 patients hospitalized, 252 were included (78.9% women). Mortality at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months was 21.2%, 25%, 28.8%, and 34.6% for men and 7.8%, 13.5%, 19.2%, and 21.4% for women, respectively. Predictors of death were male gender (HR = 2.54; 95%CI: 1.40-4.58), ASA score III/IV vs. I/II (HR = 1.95; 95%CI: 1.10-3.47), age (HR = 1.06; 95%CI: 1.03-1.10), and delay in days to surgery (HR = 1.07; 95%CI: 1.03-1.12). Factors related to death were mainly related to patients’ characteristics at admission.

Spatial inequalities in old-age survival exist in Portugal and might be associated with factors pertaining to three distinct domains: socioeconomic, physical environmental and healthcare. We evaluated the contribution of these factors on the old-age survival across Portuguese municipalities deriving a surrogate measure of life expectancy, a 10-year survival rate that expresses the proportion of the population aged 75-84 years old who reached 85-94. As covariates we used two internationally comparable multivariate indexes: the European deprivation index and the multiple physical environmental deprivation index. A national index was developed to evaluate the access to healthcare. Smoothed rates and odds ratios (OR) were estimated using Bayesian spatial models. Socioeconomic deprivation was found to be the most relevant factor influencing old-age survival in Portugal [women: least deprived areas OR=1.132(1.064-1.207); men OR=1.044(1.001- 1.094)] and explained a sizable amount of the spatial variance in survival, especially among women. Access to healthcare was associated with old-age survival in the univariable model only; results lost significance after adjustment for socioeconomic circumstances [women: higher access to healthcare OR=1.020(0.973- 1.072); men OR=1.021(0.989-1.060)]. Physical environmental deprivation was unrelated with old-age survival. In conclusion, socioeconomic deprivation was the most important determinant in explaining spatial disparities in old-age survival in Portugal, which indicates that policy makers should direct their efforts to tackle socioeconomic differentials between regions.

Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever dados antropométricos e de alimentação relacionados à síndrome de fragilidade em idosos. O desenho foi transversal, com indivíduos ≥ 60 anos de inquérito domiciliar realizado em Manguinhos, Município do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil (n = 137). Foram obtidos o diagnóstico de síndrome de fragilidade segundo Fried et al., medidas antropométricas e aplicado questionário de frequência de consumo alimentar, comparando-se às recomendações do Ministério da Saúde. Nos grupos pré-frágeis e frágeis, o índice de massa corporal e medidas de centralização de gordura apresentaram valores mais elevados e os parâmetros musculares, valores menores, com a gradação da síndrome. O consumo de cereais foi maior nos frágeis e o de feijão e frutas menor; o de vegetais, laticínios e alimentos ricos em açúcar e gordura foi maior nos pré-frágeis; o de carne foi semelhante nos grupos. Assim, o diagnóstico da síndrome, a avaliação antropométrica e da alimentação são ações a serem incluídas às políticas de saúde do idoso por identificar precocemente o risco e beneficiar intervenções de prevenção e promoção à saúde e nutrição.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. METHODS Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil – Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. RESULTS The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income CONCLUSIONS The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

The available strategy for controlling the diseases transmitted by Aedes ægypti (dengue fever, Zika, and chikungunya) relies on continued community participation. Despite slogans emphasizing how easy it should be, no country has achieved it since the seventies. To better investigate potentially sustainable interventions, we developed a systemic model based on a multidisciplinary approach, integrating as deeply as possible specialized knowledge and field experience. The resulting model is composed of 4 external and 8 internal subsystems and 31 relationships, consistent with the literature and checked over multiple iterations with specialists of the many areas. We analyzed the model and the main feedback loops responsible for the system's stability, searching for possible interventions that could shift the existing balance. We suggest the introduction of 1 more player, the local primary health care structure, with the potential to change the undesired equilibrium. The health agents in the areas are the first to detect disease cases, and they could stimulate individuals to inform about potential mosquitoes' breeding sites and bring timely information to the vector-control program. Triggering such an action could introduce changes in people's attitude through a positive feedback loop in the desired direction.

Introduction This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the incidence of severe dengue during the 2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and socioeconomic indicators, as well as indicators of health service availability and previous circulation of the dengue virus serotype-3 (DENV-3). Methods In this ecological study, the units of analysis were the districts of Rio de Janeiro. The data were incorporated into generalized linear models, and the incidence of severe dengue in each district was the outcome variable. Results The districts with more cases of dengue fever in the 2001 epidemic and a higher percentage of residents who declared their skin color or race as black had higher incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic [incidence rate ratio (IRR)= 1.21; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)= 1.05-1.40 and IRR= 1.34; 95%CI= 1.16-1.54, respectively]. In contrast, the districts with Family Health Strategy (FHS) clinics were more likely to have lower incidence rates of severe dengue in the 2008 epidemic (IRR= 0.81; 95%CI= 0.70-0.93). Conclusions At the ecological level, our findings suggest the persistence of health inequalities in this region of Brazil that are possibly due to greater social vulnerability among the self-declared black population. Additionally, the protective effect of FHS clinics may be due to the ease of access to other levels of care in the health system or to a reduced vulnerability to dengue transmission that is afforded by local practices to promote health.

Introduction: The potential influence of high-vector-density environments where people are supposedly more exposed to mosquito bites may have a relation to the clinical severity of dengue fever, an association that has been poorly discussed in the literature. Objective: This study aimed at analyzing the association between anthropic environmental factors, particularly those related to the conditions of domicile and peridomicile, and the occurrence of severe dengue cases during the 2008 epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case–control study with a sample of 88 severe patients aged 2–18. They were selected through chart review in four children's tertiary care centers. The 367 controls were neighbors of the cases, paired by age. Data were collected through interviews and systematic assessment of house conditions as well as peridomicile area conditions, and they were later analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Results: The presence of three or more high-volume capacity containers, which were without a lid or were inadequately sealed (water tanks, wells, cisterns, cement tanks, and pools), was significantly more frequent in households with severe cases when compared with households of controls (OR=1.6; CI 95%=1.36–20.01; p=0.015). Discussion: The presence of such larger reservoirs that could potentially produce more adult forms of the vector is consistent with a situation where people are more exposed to mosquito bites, and consequently are more prone to have multiple infections over a short period of time. Conclusion: The emergence of severe dengue cases in a high-transmission context underpins the importance of constant vigilance and interventions in those types of reservoirs, which result from precarious household structures and irregular water supply services.

OBJETIVO: Analisar a qualidade do campo município de residência no Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde (SIH-SUS). METODOLOGIA: Foram selecionadas as internações de mulheres com diagnóstico principal de câncer de mama e de colo de útero e que morreram durante a internação em hospital do estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2001-2002. Estes registros foram comparados manualmente com os de óbito de residentes no estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2001-2002, considerados a referência para a comparação. RESULTADOS: Dos 808 registros de óbitos hospitalares: 16 (1,9%) não foram encontrados na base do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM); em 670 (82,9%) os municípios de residência coincidiram; 78 (9,6%) indicavam município de residência Rio de Janeiro diferente do encontrado no SIM; e, destes, 53 (74,6%) eram municípios da Região Metropolitana. O coeficiente kappa foi de 0,80 (IC95% 0,76-0,84). CONCLUSÃO: Observou-se elevada concordância, menor quando a mulher não residia na capital, mas no seu entorno.

Few studies on AIDS that evaluate factors associated with treatment failure have considered the slow evolution of the disease and multiple health state transitions following the use of antiretrovirals. In this article we study factors associated with the progression between different stages of the disease, focusing on therapy adherence using a sample of 722 HIV+ patients followed up for 3 years. States were defined using the following classifications of the CD4 cell count: s1 (CD4 ≥ 500); s2 (350 ≤ CD4 < 500); and s3 (CD4 < 350). The transitions between states were modeled using multi-state models. Antiretroviral therapy adherence and disease duration were associated with transitions between immune states during follow-up. Low adherence increased the hazard ratio of a transition between s1 to s2 and intermediate adherence increased the hazard ratio of a transition between s2 to s3. On the other hand, older age and disease duration between two and four years are protective factors for AIDS progression. Multi-state modeling is a powerful approach for studying chronic diseases and estimating factors associated with transitions between each stage of progression, thus enabling the use of more individualized and effective interventions.

Few studies on AIDS that evaluate factors associated with treatment failure have considered the slow evolution of the disease and multiple health state transitions following the use of antiretrovirals. In this article we study factors associated with the progression between different stages of the disease, focusing on therapy adherence using a sample of 722 HIV+ patients followed up for 3 years. States were defined using the following classifications of the CD4 cell count: s1 (CD4 ≥ 500); s2 (350 ≤ CD4 < 500); and s3 (CD4 < 350). The transitions between states were modeled using multi-state models. Antiretroviral therapy adherence and disease duration were associated with transitions between immune states during follow-up. Low adherence increased the hazard ratio of a transition between s1 to s2 and intermediate adherence increased the hazard ratio of a transition between s2 to s3. On the other hand, older age and disease duration between two and four years are protective factors for AIDS progression. Multi-state modeling is a powerful approach for studying chronic diseases and estimating factors associated with transitions between each stage of progression, thus enabling the use of more individualized and effective interventions.Existen pocos estudios sobre el SIDA que evalúan factores asociados al fallo terapéutico, consideran su evolución lenta, con el pasaje por múltiples estados de salud, consecuencia del uso de antirretrovirales. En ese artículo se estudiaron factores asociados a la progresión entre estados inmunes, enfocando adhesión, en 722 pacientes VIH+ acompañados durante 3 años. El desenlace fue el cómputo de células CD4, clasificado en s1 (CD4 ≥ 500), s2 (350 ≤ CD4 < 500) y s3 (CD4 < 350). Las transiciones entre estados se modelaron por modelos multi-estado. La adhesión a la terapia antirretroviral y el tiempo de enfermedad están asociados diferentemente al cambio del estado inmune vivido por el paciente. Baja adhesión a la terapia aumentó el riesgo de s1→s2 y una adhesión intermedia aumentó de un s2→s3. Por otro lado, edades elevadas y tiempo de enfermedad de 2 a 4 años se presentan como factores de protección en la progresión del SIDA. El modelo multi-estado es un enfoque poderoso en el estudio de enfermedades crónicas, por estimar los factores asociados a cada etapa de la evolución de enfermedades crónicas, posibilitando la adopción de intervenciones más individualizadas y eficaces.Poucos estudos sobre AIDS que avaliam fatores associados à falha terapêutica consideram sua evolução lenta, com a passagem por múltiplos estados de saúde, consequência do uso de antirretrovirais. Nesse artigo foram estudados fatores associados à progressão entre estados imunes, enfocando adesão, em 722 pacientes HIV+ acompanhados por 3 anos. O desfecho foi a contagem de células CD4 classificada em s1 (CD4 ≥ 500), s2 (350 ≤ CD4 < 500) e s3 (CD4 < 350). As transições entre estados foram modeladas por modelos multiestado. A adesão à terapia antirretroviral e o tempo de doença estão associados diferentemente à mudança do estado imune vivido pelo paciente. Baixa adesão à terapia aumentou o risco de s1→s2 e adesão intermediária aumentou o de s2→s3. Por outro lado, idades elevadas e tempo de doença de 2 a 4 anos se apresentam como fatores de proteção na progressão da AIDS. A modelagem multiestado é uma abordagem poderosa no estudo de doenças crônicas, por estimar os fatores associados a cada etapa da evolução de doenças crônicas, possibilitando a adoção de intervenções mais individualizadas e eficazes.

We analyzed factors associated with severe cases of dengue in children and adolescents hospitalized during the 2007/2008 epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This is a retrospective case-control study that covers 88 cases of severe dengue in patients admitted to four tertiary care children's hospitals. Controls consisted of 22 children with non-severe dengue living in the same neighborhood as the patients with severe dengue. Differences in prevalence of the clinical signs - abdominal pain, breathing difficulty, drowsiness or irritability - emerged on the third day after the onset of symptoms, in the febrile stage. Cases and controls received first medical care at the same clinical stage of disease. However, hospital admission of severe cases occurred later, on average between the third and fourth day after the onset of the disease. Early discharge of patients with fever whose condition could have progressed to severe dengue may have been a consequence of the type of medical assistance provided by primary care units, suggesting deficiencies both in the use of the risk classification protocol and patient triage.

BACKGROUND:In 2015, Brazil was faced with the cocirculation of three arboviruses of major public health importance. The emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) presents new challenges to both clinicians and public health authorities. Overlapping clinical features between diseases caused by ZIKV, Dengue (DENV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) and the lack of validated serological assays for ZIKV make accurate diagnosis difficult. METHODOLOGY / PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The outpatient service for acute febrile illnesses in Fiocruz initiated a syndromic clinical observational study in 2007 to capture unusual presentations of DENV infections. In January 2015, an increase of cases with exanthematic disease was observed. Trained physicians evaluated the patients using a detailed case report form that included clinical assessment and laboratory investigations. The laboratory diagnostic algorithm included assays for detection of ZIKV, CHIKV and DENV. 364 suspected cases of Zika virus disease were identified based on clinical criteria between January and July 2015. Of these, 262 (71.9%) were tested and 119 (45.4%) were confirmed by the detection of ZIKV RNA. All of the samples with sequence information available clustered within the Asian genotype. CONCLUSIONS / SIGNIFICANCE:This is the first report of a ZIKV outbreak in the state of Rio de Janeiro, based on a large number of suspected (n = 364) and laboratory confirmed cases (n = 119). We were able to demonstrate that ZIKV was circulating in Rio de Janeiro as early as January 2015. The peak of the outbreak was documented in May/June 2015. More than half of the patients reported headache, arthralgia, myalgia, non-purulent conjunctivitis, and lower back pain, consistent with the case definition of suspected ZIKV disease issued by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). However, fever, when present, was low-intensity and short-termed. In our opinion, pruritus, the second most common clinical sign presented by the confirmed cases, should be added to the PAHO case definition, while fever could be given less emphasis. The emergence of ZIKV as a new pathogen for Brazil in 2015 underscores the need for clinical vigilance and strong epidemiological and laboratory surveillance.

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.