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Tuberculin skin test surveys in primary school children can be used to quantify Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission at community level. KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, is home to 11.5 million people and suffers a burden of tuberculosis disease that is among the highest in the world. The last tuberculin survey in the province was undertaken in 1979. We performed a tuberculin skin test survey nested within a demographic and health household surveillance programme in Northern KwaZulu-Natal. We enrolled children aged between six and eight years of age attending primary schools in this community. Mixture analysis was used to determine tuberculin skin test thresholds and the Annual Risk of Tuberculous Infection derived from age at testing and infection prevalence. The Community Infection Ratio, a measure of the relative importance of within-household and community transmission, was calculated from data on tuberculin positivity disaggregated by household tuberculosis contact. Between June and December 2013, we obtained tuberculin skin test results on 1240 children. Mixture analysis proved unstable, suggesting two potential thresholds for test positivity. Using a threshold of ≥10mm or treating all non zero reactions as positive yielded estimates of the Annual Risk of Tuberculous Infection of 1.7% (1.4-2.1%) or 2.4% (2.0-3.0%). Using the same thresholds and including children reported to be receiving TB treatment as cases, resulted in estimates of 2.0% (1.6-2.5%) or 2.7% (2.2-3.3%). The Community Infection Ratio was 0.58 (0.33-1.01). The force of infection in this community is lower than that observed in Western Cape province, South Africa, but higher than that observed in community settings in most other parts of the world. Children in this community are commonly infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis outside the home. Interventions to interrupt transmission are urgently needed.

Objectives The aim of this study is to look at spatial and temporal trends in undernutrition in children under 5 years age in Burkina Faso.Setting We used data from annual National Nutrition Surveys using Standardised Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions methodology (anthropometry, morbidity) over 7 years (2012–2018) in Burkina Faso.Participants Children of under 5 years from households selected through systemic sampling at countrywide level.Main outcome measures Prevalence of stunting (height-for-age z-score,

Objectives To identify and investigate complex pathways to stunting among children aged 6–24 months to determine the mediating effects of dietary diversity and continued breast feeding on the association between socioeconomic factors and child stunting.Design, setting and participants We analysed the most recent cross-sectional Demographic and Health Survey data from Cambodia (2014). We applied structural path analysis on a sample of 1365 children to model the complex and inter-related pathways of factors determining children’s height for age. Explanatory variables included a composite indicator of maternal employment, household wealth, maternal education, current breastfeeding status and dietary diversity score. Results are presented both in terms of non-standardised and standardised coefficients.Outcome measure The primary outcome measure was height-for-age Z-scores as a continuous measure.Results Findings suggest that children’s dietary diversity and continued breast feeding mediate the association between socioeconomic status and children’s height. While there was no significant direct effect of maternal education on children’s height, results suggested significant indirect pathways through which maternal education effects children’s height; operating through household wealth, maternal employment, dietary diversity and continued breastfeeding status (p

Abstract Background High blood pressure (BP) late in pregnancy is associated with preterm delivery (PTD); BP has also been associated with HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART), but whether the relationship between BP assessed longitudinally over pregnancy and PTD and low birthweight (LBW) is modified by HIV/ART is unclear. We hypothesise the presence of distinctive BP trajectories and their association with adverse birth outcomes may be mediated by HIV/ART status. Methods We recruited pregnant women at a large primary care facility in Cape Town. BP was measured throughout pregnancy using automated monitors. Group-based trajectory modelling in women with ≥3 BP measurements identified distinct joint systolic and diastolic BP trajectory groups. Multinomial regression assessed BP trajectory group associations with HIV/ART status, and Poisson regression with robust error variance was used to assess risk of PTD and LBW. Results Of the 1583 women in this analysis, 37% were HIV-infected. Seven joint trajectory group combinations were identified, which were categorised as normal (50%), low normal (25%), high normal (20%), and abnormal (5%). A higher proportion of women in the low normal group were HIV-infected than HIV-uninfected (28% vs. 23%), however differences were not statistically significant (RR 1.27, 95% CI 0.98–1.63, reference category: normal). In multivariable analyses, low normal trajectory (aRR0.59, 0.41–0.85) was associated with decreased risk of PTD, while high normal (aRR1.48, 1.12–1.95) and abnormal trajectories (aRR3.18, 2.32–4.37) were associated with increased risk of PTD, and abnormal with increased risk of LBW (RR2.81, 1.90–4.15). Conclusions While HIV/ART did not appear to mediate the BP trajectories and adverse birth outcomes association, they did provide more detailed insights into the relationship between BP, PTD and LBW for HIV-infected and uninfected women.

Abstract Heightened food insecurity in the hunger season increases the risk of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in childhood. This study examined the association of season of birth with SAM in a Guinean Sahelian ecological zone. We analyzed routine health and sociodemographic surveillance data from the Navrongo Health and Socio‐demographic Surveillance System collected between 2011 and 2018. January–June, the period of highest food insecurity, was defined as the hunger season. We defined moderate acute malnutrition as child mid‐upper arm circumference (MUAC) between 115 mm and 135 mm and SAM as MAUC ≤ 115 mm. We used adjusted logistic regression to quantify the association between the season of birth and SAM in children aged 6–35 months. From the 29,452 children studied, 24% had moderate acute malnutrition. Overall, 1.4% had SAM, with a higher prevalence (1.8%) in the hunger season of birth. Compared with those born October–December, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for SAM were increased for children born in the hunger season: January–March (1.77 [1.31–2.39]) and April–June (1.92 [1.44–2.56]). Low birth weight, age at an assessment of nutritional status, and ethno‐linguistic group were also significantly associated with SAM in adjusted analyses. Our study established that being born in the hunger season is associated with a higher risk of severe acute malnutrition. The result implies improvement in the food supply to pregnant and lactating mothers through sustainable agriculture or food system change targeting the hunger season may reduce the burden of severe acute malnutrition.

Complications from preterm birth are a leading cause of infant mortality, with long-term implications for morbidity and quality of life of preterm infants. There are many important risk factors for preterm births however in this article, we focus on the maternal infection etiological pathway, given its significance in low-to-middle income countries. In high preterm birth settings such as sub-Saharan Africa, maternal HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use have been associated with an increased risk of preterm births. Consequently, we highlight methodological considerations related to selection and measurement bias in preterm birth research. We further illustrate the potential impact of these biases in studies investigating the relationship between HIV/ART and preterm births. We also briefly discuss issues related to population-level estimations based on routinely collected clinical or civil registration data. We conclude by emphasizing the importance of strengthening of antenatal care services to improve quality of population data as well as optimizing current and future study designs, by taking into account the important methodological considerations described in this article.

Purpose Prematurity Immunology in Mothers living with HIV and their infants Study (PIMS) is a prospective cohort study in South Africa investigating the association between antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, preterm delivery (PTD) and small-for-gestational age (SGA) live births. PIMS main hypotheses are that ART initiation in pregnancy and ART-induced hypertension are associated with PTD and SGA respectively and that reconstitution of cellular immune responses in women on ART from before pregnancy results in increases in PTD of GA infants.Participants Pregnant women (n=3972) aged ≥18 years regardless of HIV status recruited from 2015 to 2016 into the overall PIMS cohort (2517 HIV-negative, 1455 living with HIV). A nested cohort contained 551 women living with HIV who were ≤24 weeks’ GA on ultrasound: 261 initiated ART before pregnancy, 290 initiated during the pregnancy.Findings to date Women in the overall cohort were followed antenatally through to delivery using routine clinical records; further women in the nested cohort were actively followed up until 12 months post partum, with data collected on maternal health (HIV care and ART use, clinical care and intercurrent clinical history). Other procedures conducted on the nested cohort included physical examinations (anthropometry, blood pressure measurement), assessment of fetal growth (ultrasound), maternal and infant phlebotomy for storage of plasma, RNA and peripheral blood mononuclear cells, collection of delivery specimens (placenta and cord blood) and infant 12-month developmental assessment. Preliminary findings have contributed to our understanding of risk factors for adverse birth outcomes, and the relationship between pregnancy immunology, HIV/ART and adverse birth outcomes.Future plans Using specimens collected from study participants living with HIV throughout pregnancy and first year of life, the PIMS provides a valuable platform for answering a variety of research questions focused on temporal changes of immunology markers in women whose immune status is altered by HIV infection, and how ART initiated during the pregnancy affects immune responses. The relationship between these immunological changes with adverse birth outcomes as well as possible longer-term impact of exposure to ART in fetal and early life will be explored. Additionally, further active and passive follow-up of mothers and their infants is planned at school-going age and beyond to chart growth, morbidity and development, as well as changes in family circumstances.

The benefits of interventions which improve early nutrition are well recognised. These benefits, however, only accrue to the extent that later life circumstances allow. Consequently, in adverse contexts many of the benefits will never be realised, particularly for the most vulnerable, exacerbating inequality. Returns to investment in early nutrition could be improved if we identified contextual factors constraining their realisation and interventions to weaken these. We estimate cost and impact of scaling 10 nutrition interventions for a cohort of South African children born in 2021. We estimate associated declines in malnutrition and mortality, and improvements in years of schooling and future earnings. To examine the role of context over the life-course we estimate benefits with and without additional improvements in school quality and employment opportunities by socio-economic quintile. Scale up reduces national stunting (height for age < = -2SD) rates among children at 24 months by 3.18 percentage points, implying an increase in mean height for age z-score (HAZ) of 0.10, and 53,000 years of additional schooling. Quintile 1 (the poorest) displays the largest decline in stunting, and largest increase in mean HAZ. Estimated total cost of increasing coverage of the interventions for the cohort is US$90 million. The present value of the additional years of schooling is estimated at close to US$2 billion. Cost-benefit ratios suggest the highest return occurs in quintile 5 (1:23). Reducing inequality in school quality closes the gap between quintile 5 and the lower quintiles. If school quality and labour force participation were equal the highest returns are in quintile 1(1:31). An enabling environment is key to maximising human development returns from investing in early nutrition, and to avoid exacerbating existing inequality. Therefore, particularly for children in adverse conditions, it is essential to identify and implement complementary interventions over the life course.

Background. Metamodels can simplify complex health policy models and yield instantaneous results to inform policy decisions. We investigated the predictive validity of linear regression metamodels used to support a real-time decision-making tool that compares infant HIV testing/screening strategies. Methods. We developed linear regression metamodels of the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications Pediatric (CEPAC-P) microsimulation model used to predict life expectancy and lifetime HIV-related costs/person of two infant HIV testing/screening programs in South Africa. Metamodel performance was assessed with cross-validation and Bland-Altman plots, showing between-method differences in predicted outcomes against their means. Predictive validity was determined by the percentage of simulations in which the metamodels accurately predicted the strategy with the greatest net health benefit (NHB) as projected by the CEPAC-P model. We introduced a zone of indifference and investigated the width needed to produce between-method agreement in 95% of the simulations. We also calculated NHB losses from “wrong” decisions by the metamodel. Results. In cross-validation, linear regression metamodels accurately approximated CEPAC-P-projected outcomes. For life expectancy, Bland-Altman plots showed good agreement between CEPAC-P and the metamodel (within 1.1 life-months difference). For costs, 95% of between-method differences were within $65/person. The metamodels predicted the same optimal strategy as the CEPAC-P model in 87.7% of simulations, increasing to 95% with a zone of indifference of 0.24 life-months ( ∼ 7 days). The losses in health benefits due to “wrong” choices by the metamodel were modest (range: 0.0002–1.1 life-months). Conclusions. For this policy question, linear regression metamodels offered sufficient predictive validity for the optimal testing strategy as compared with the CEPAC-P model. Metamodels can simulate different scenarios in real time, based on sets of input parameters that can be depicted in a widely accessible decision-support tool.

Abstract Background Subclinical mastitis (SCM) is relatively common in lactating women and may be associated with HIV shedding in breast milk. The potential association between HIV infection and breast milk immunologic factors and immune response to SCM needs to be addressed. Methods In this cross-sectional study, SCM (Na/K ratio > 1) was tested in 165 mature breast milk samples collected from 40 HIV-infected women who didn’t transmit HIV to their child by breastfeeding and 43 HIV-uninfected women enrolled in an interventional cohort in South-Africa (Vertical Transmission Study). The level of 33 immune markers related to Th1/Th2 related response, inflammation and bacterial exposure were compared in ART-naive HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected women. The associations between HIV infection and SCM on the concentration of immune factors were tested separately by Wilcoxon rank-sum test and corrected for false discovery rate. To control for potential confounder effects and take into account the clustering of breast milk samples from a single woman, multivariate mixed linear models adjusted on child age at the time of sampling were performed for each immune factor. Results Subclinical mastitis was detected in 15 (37.5%) HIV-infected women and 10 (23.3%) HIV-uninfected women. In the absence of SCM, the breast milk levels of IP-10 and MIG were higher and IL1-RA lower in HIV-infected women than in HIV-uninfected women (respectively p

BackgroundEvidence shows that antiretroviral (ART) exposure is associated with neurodevelopmental delays in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-exposed uninfected (HEU) children. However, there are few insights into modifiable maternal and child factors that may play a role in improving neurodevelopment in HEU children. We used a parent-centric neurodevelopment tool, Ages & Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) to examined neurodevelopment in HEU children at 12-24 months of age, and associations with maternal and child factors.Methods505 HIV-infected women (initiated ART pre- or during pregnancy) with live singleton births attending primary health care were enrolled; 355 of their HEU children were assessed for neurodevelopment (gross motor, fine motor, communication, problem solving and personal-social domains) at 12-24 months using age-specific ASQ administered by a trained fieldworker. Associations with maternal and child factors were examined using logistic regression models.ResultsAmong mothers (median age 30 years, IQR, 26-34), 52% initiated ART during pregnancy; the median CD4 count was 436 cells/μl (IQR, 305-604). Most delayed neurodevelopment in HEU children was in gross (9%) and fine motor (5%) functions. In adjusted models, maternal socio-economic status (aOR 0.42, 95% CI 0.24-0.76) was associated with reduced odds of delayed gross-fine motor neurodevelopment. Maternal age ≥35 years (aOR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05-0.89) and maternal body mass index (BMI) ConclusionsDelayed neurodevelopment was detected in both gross and fine motor functions in this cohort of HEU children, with strong maternal predictors that may be explored as potentially modifiable factors associated with neurodevelopment at one to two years of age.

BackgroundEvidence on the association between breastfeeding and later childhood obesity and blood pressure (BP) is inconsistent, especially in HIV-prevalent areas where, until recently, HIV-infected women were discouraged from breastfeeding, but obesity is increasingly prevalent.Methods and findingsThe Siyakhula cohort (2012-2014), a population-based prospective cohort study, collected data over 3 visits on HIV-negative children ages 7 to 11 years in rural South Africa. We used weight (body mass index [BMI]), fat, and BP as outcome variables and incorporated early life (including mother's age at delivery and HIV status) and current life factors (including maternal education and current BMI). Our primary exposure was breastfeeding duration. We dichotomized 3 outcome measures using pre-established thresholds for clinical interpretability: (1) overfat: ≥85th percentile of body fat; (2) overweight: >1 SD BMI z score; and (3) prehypertension: ≥90th percentile for systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP). We modelled each outcome using multivariable logistic regression, including stopping breastfeeding, then early life, and finally current life factors. Of 1,536 children (mean age = 9.3 years; 872 girls; 664 boys), 7% were overfat, 13.2% overweight, and 9.1% prehypertensive. Over half (60%) of the mothers reported continued breastfeeding for 12+ months. In multivariable analyses, continued breastfeeding between 6 and 11 months was associated with approximately halved odds of both being overfat (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.91, P = 0.027) and overweight (aOR = 0.46, CI 0.26-0.82, P = 0.0083), but the association with prehypertension did not reach statistical significance (aOR = 0.72, CI 0.38-1.37, P = 0.32). Children with a mother who was currently obese were 5 times more likely (aOR = 5.02, CI 2.47-10.20, P < 0.001) to be overfat and over 4 times more likely to be overweight (aOR = 4.33, CI 2.65-7.09, P < 0.001) than children with normal weight mothers. Differences between HIV-exposed and unexposed children on any of the outcomes were minimal and not significant. The main study limitation was that duration of breastfeeding was based on maternal recall.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first study examining and quantifying the association between breastfeeding and childhood obesity in an African setting with high HIV prevalence. We observed that breastfeeding was independently associated with reduced childhood obesity for both HIV-exposed and unexposed children, suggesting that promoting optimal nutrition throughout the life course, starting with continued breastfeeding, may be critical to tackling the growing obesity epidemic. In the era of widespread effective antiretroviral treatment for HIV-infected women for life, these data further support the recommendation of breastfeeding for all women.

Abstract Background Timely initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) requires sustained engagement in HIV care before treatment eligibility. We assessed loss to follow-up (LTFU) correlates in HIV-positive adults accessing HIV treatment and care, not yet ART-eligible (CD4 >500 cells/mm3). Methods This was a sub-study of a prospective cohort study (focusing on sexual behaviour) in an area of high HIV prevalence and widespread ART availability in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Psychosocial, clinical and demographic data were collected at recruitment from individuals with CD4 >500 cells/mm3. LTFU was defined as not attending clinic within 13 months of last visit or before death. Individuals starting ART were censored at ART initiation. Data were collected between January 2009 and January 2013. Analysis used Competing Risks regression. Results Two hundred forty-seven individuals (212 females) were recruited (median follow-up 2.13 years, total follow-up 520.15 person-years). 86 remained in pre-ART care (34.8 %), 94 were LTFU (38.1 %), 58 initiated ART (23.5 %), 7 died (2.8 %), 2 transferred out (0.8 %). The LTFU rate was 18.07 per 100 person-years (95 % CI 14.76–21.12). LTFU before a competing event was 13.5 % at one and 34.4 % at three years. Lower LTFU rates were significantly associated with age (>37 versus ≤37 years: adjusted sub-Hazard ratio (aSHR) 0.51, 95 % CI 0.30–0.87), openness with family/friends (a little versus not at all, aSHR 0.81, 95 % CI 0.45–1.43; a lot versus not at all, aSHR 1.57, 95 % CI 0.94–2.62), children (0 versus 4+, aSHR 0.68, 95 % CI 0.24–1.87; 1 versus 4+, aSHR 2.05 95 % CI 1.14–3.69, 2 versus 4+; aSHR 1.71, 95 % CI 0.94–3.09; 3 versus 4a, aSHR 1.14, 95 % CI 0.57–2.30), previous CD4 counts (1 versus 0, aSHR 0.81, 95 % CI 0.45–1.43; 2+ versus 0, aSHR 0.43, 95 % CI 0.25–0.73), and most recent partner HIV status (not known versus HIV-positive, aSHR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.50–1.19; HIV-negative versus HIV-positive, aSHR 2.40, 95 % CI 1.18–4.88). The interaction between openness with family/friends and HIV partner disclosure was close to significance (p = 0.06). Those who had neither disclosed to partners nor were open with family/friends had lowest LTFU rates. Conclusions Strategies to retain younger people in pre-ART care are required. How openness with others, partner HIV status and disclosure, and children relate to LTFU needs further exploration.

Background: The burden of pneumonia continues to be substantial, particularly among the poorest in global society. We describe here the trends for UK pneumonia R&D investment and published outputs, and correlate with 2013 global mortality. Methods: Data related to awards to UK institutions for pneumonia research from 1997 to 2013 were systematically sourced and categorised by disease area and type of science. Investment was compared to mortality figures in 2010 and 2013 for pneumonia, tuberculosis and influenza. Investment was also compared to publication data. Results: Of all infectious disease research between 2011 and 2013 (£917.0 million), £28.8 million (3.1%) was for pneumonia. This was an absolute and proportionate increase from previous time periods. Translational pneumonia research (33.3%) received increased funding compared with 1997–2010 where funding was almost entirely preclinical (87.5%, here 30.9%), but high-burden areas such as paediatrics, elderly care and antimicrobial resistance received little investment. Annual investment remains volatile; publication temporal trends show a consistent increase. When comparing investment to global burden with a novel ‘investment by mortality observed’ metric, tuberculosis (£48.36) and influenza (£484.21) receive relatively more funding than pneumonia (£43.08), despite investment for pneumonia greatly increasing in 2013 compared to 2010 (£7.39). Limitations include a lack of private sector data and the need for careful interpretation of the comparisons with burden, plus categorisation is subjective. Conclusions: There has been a welcome increase for pneumonia funding awarded to UK institutions in 2011–2013 compared with 1997–2010, along with increases for more translational research. Published outputs relating to pneumonia rose steadily from 1997 to 2013. Investment relative to mortality for pneumonia has increased, but it remains low compared to other respiratory infections and clear inequities remain. Analyses that measure investments in pneumonia can provide an insight into funding trends and research gaps. Research in context: Pneumonia continues to be a high-burden illness around the globe. This paper shows that although research funding is increasing in the UK (between 1997 and 2013), it remains poorly funded compared to other important respiratory infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and influenza. Publications about pneumonia have been steadily increasing over time, indicating continuing academic and clinical interest in the topic. Though global mortality of pneumonia is declining, it should still be an area of high priority for funders, policymakers and researchers.

The success of prevention of mother to child transmission programs over the last two decades has led to an increasing number of infants who are exposed to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but who are not themselves infected (HIV-exposed, uninfected infants). Although the morbidity and mortality among HIV-exposed, uninfected infants is considerably lower than that among HIV-infected infants, they may remain at increased risk of infections in the first 2 years of life compared with their HIV-unexposed peers, especially in the absence of breastfeeding. There is some evidence of immunological differences in HIV-exposed, uninfected infants, which could play a role in susceptibility to infection. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) may contribute to the increased immune activation observed in HIV-exposed, uninfected infants. Infants born to HIV-infected women are at increased risk of congenital CMV infection, as well as early acquisition of postnatal CMV infection. In infants with HIV infection, CMV co-infection in early life is associated with higher morbidity and mortality. This review considers how HIV infection, HIV exposure, and CMV infection affect infant responses to vaccination, and explores possible immunological and other explanations for these findings. HIV-infected infants have lower vaccine-induced antibody concentrations following tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis, hepatitis B, and pneumococcal vaccination, although the clinical relevance of this difference is not known. Despite lower concentrations of maternal-specific antibody at birth, HIV-exposed, uninfected infants respond to vaccination at least as well as their HIV-unexposed uninfected peers. CMV infection leads to an increase in activation and differentiation of the whole T-cell population, but there is limited data on the effects of CMV infection on infant vaccine responses. In light of growing evidence of poor clinical outcomes associated with CMV infection in HIV-exposed, uninfected infants, further studies are particularly important in this group. A clearer understanding of the mechanisms by which maternal viral infections influence the developing infant immune system is critical to the success of maternal and infant vaccination strategies.

The aim of the paper is to explore factors associated with home or hospital delivery in rural Uganda. Qualitative interviews with recently-delivered women in rural Uganda and statistical analysis of data from the 2011 Ugandan Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to assess the association between socio-demographic and cultural factors and delivery location in multivariable regression models. In the DHS, 61.7% (of 4907) women had a facility-based delivery (FBD); in adjusted analyses, FBD was associated with an urban setting [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.66 to 4.28)], the upper wealth quintile (aOR: 3.69, 95%CI 2.79 to 3.87) and with secondary education (aOR: 3.07, 95%CI 2.37 to 3.96). In interviews women quoted costs and distance as barriers to FBD. Other factors reported in interviews to be associated with FBD included family influence, perceived necessity of care (weak women needed FBD), and the reputation of the facility (women bypassed local facilities to deliver at better hospitals). Choosing a FBD is a complex decision and education around the benefits of FBD should be combined with interventions designed to remove barriers to FBD.

In a Perspective, Collins Iwuji and Marie-Louise Newell discuss early findings from Richard Hayes and colleagues' PopART study on HIV testing and treatment.

Objective: To determine causes of death and associated risk factors in women of reproductive age in rural South Africa. Methods: Deaths and person-years of observation (pyo) were determined for females (aged 15–49 years) resident in 15,526 households in a rural South African Demographic and Health Surveillance site from 2000 to 2009. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy and ICD-10 coded; causes were categorized as HIV/TB, non-communicable, communicable/maternal/perinatal/nutrition, injuries, and undetermined (unknown). Characteristics of women were obtained from regularly updated household visits, while HIV and self-reported health status was obtained from the annual HIV surveillance. Overall and cause-specific mortality rates (MRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The Weibull regression model (HR, 95%CI) was used to determine risk factors associated with mortality. Results: A total of 42,703 eligible women were included; 3,098 deaths were reported for 212,607 pyo. Overall MRwas 14.6 deaths/1,000 pyo (95% CI: 14.1–15.1), peaking in 2003 (MR 18.2/1,000 pyo, 95% CI: 16.4–20.1) and declining thereafter (2009: MR 9.6/1,000 pyo, 95% CI: 8.410.9). Mortality was highest for HIV/TB (MR 10.6/1,000 pyo, 95% CI: 10.211.1), accounting for 73.1% of all deaths, ranging from 61.2% in 2009 to 82.7% in 2002. Adjusting for education level, marital status, age, employment status, area of residence, and migration, all-cause mortality was associated with external migration (adjusted hazard ratio, or aHR), 1.70, 95% CI: 1.41–2.05), self-reported poor health status (aHR 8.26, 95% CI: 2.94–23.15), and HIV-infection (aHR 7.84, 95% CI: 6.26–9.82); external migration and HIV infection were also associated with causes of mortality other than HIV/TB (aHR 1.62 CI: 1.12–2.34 and aHR 2.59, CI: 1.79–3.75). Conclusion: HIV/TB was the leading cause of death among women of reproductive age, although rates declined with the rollout of HIV treatment in the area from 2004. Women's age, external migration status, and HIV-positive status were significantly associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Objective: To describe and compare the health status, emotional wellbeing, and functional status of older people in Uganda and South Africa who are HIV infected or affected by HIV in their families. Methods: Data came from the general population cohort and Entebbe cohort of the Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute, and from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System through cross-sectional surveys in 2009/10 using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on Global Ageing and adult health (SAGE). Analysis was based on 932 people aged 50 years or older (510 Uganda, 422 South Africa). Results: Participants in South Africa were slightly younger (median age − 60 years in South Africa, 63 in Uganda), and more were currently married, had no formal education, were not working, and were residing in a rural area. Adjusting for socio-demographic factors, older people in South Africa were significantly less likely to have good functional ability [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.72, 95% CI 0.53–0.98] than those in Uganda, but were more likely to be in good subjective wellbeing (aOR 2.15, 95% CI 1.60–2.90). South Africans were more likely to be obese (aOR 5.26, 95% CI 3.46–8.00) or to be diagnosed with hypertension (aOR 2.77, 95% CI 2.06–3.73). Discussion and conclusions: While older people's health problems are similar in the two countries, marked socio-demographic differences influence the extent to which older people are affected by poorer health. It is therefore imperative when designing policies to improve the health and wellbeing of older people in sub-Saharan Africa that the region is not treated as a homogenous entity.

BackgroundThe 2015 WHO recommendation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all immediately following HIV diagnosis is partially based on the anticipated impact on HIV incidence in the surrounding population. We investigated this approach in a cluster-randomised trial in a high HIV prevalence setting in rural KwaZulu-Natal. We present findings from the first phase of the trial and report on uptake of home-based HIV testing, linkage to care, uptake of ART, and community attitudes about ART.Methods and findingsBetween 9 March 2012 and 22 May 2014, five clusters in the intervention arm (immediate ART offered to all HIV-positive adults) and five clusters in the control arm (ART offered according to national guidelines, i.e., CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/μl) contributed to the first phase of the trial. Households were visited every 6 mo. Following informed consent and administration of a study questionnaire, each resident adult (≥16 y) was asked for a finger-prick blood sample, which was used to estimate HIV prevalence, and offered a rapid HIV test using a serial HIV testing algorithm. All HIV-positive adults were referred to the trial clinic in their cluster. Those not linked to care 3 mo after identification were contacted by a linkage-to-care team. Study procedures were not blinded. In all, 12,894 adults were registered as eligible for participation (5,790 in intervention arm; 7,104 in control arm), of whom 9,927 (77.0%) were contacted at least once during household visits. HIV status was ever ascertained for a total of 8,233/9,927 (82.9%), including 2,569 ascertained as HIV-positive (942 tested HIV-positive and 1,627 reported a known HIV-positive status). Of the 1,177 HIV-positive individuals not previously in care and followed for at least 6 mo in the trial, 559 (47.5%) visited their cluster trial clinic within 6 mo. In the intervention arm, 89% (194/218) initiated ART within 3 mo of their first clinic visit. In the control arm, 42.3% (83/196) had a CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/μl at first visit, of whom 92.8% initiated ART within 3 mo. Regarding attitudes about ART, 93% (8,802/9,460) of participants agreed with the statement that they would want to start ART as soon as possible if HIV-positive. Estimated baseline HIV prevalence was 30.5% (2,028/6,656) (95% CI 25.0%, 37.0%). HIV prevalence, uptake of home-based HIV testing, linkage to care within 6 mo, and initiation of ART within 3 mo in those with CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/μl did not differ significantly between the intervention and control clusters. Selection bias related to noncontact could not be entirely excluded.ConclusionsHome-based HIV testing was well received in this rural population, although men were less easily contactable at home; immediate ART was acceptable, with good viral suppression and retention. However, only about half of HIV-positive people accessed care within 6 mo of being identified, with nearly two-thirds accessing care by 12 mo. The observed delay in linkage to care would limit the individual and public health ART benefits of universal testing and treatment in this population.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01509508.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) is associated with early child health; its longer-term benefits for child development remain inconclusive. We examine the associations between EBF, HIV exposure, and other maternal/child factors and the cognitive and emotional-behavioural development of children aged 7-11 y.The Vertical Transmission Study (VTS) supported EBF in HIV-positive and HIV-negative women; between 2012 and 2014, HIV-negative VTS children (332 HIV exposed, 574 HIV unexposed) were assessed in terms of cognition (Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children Second Edition [KABC-II]), executive function (Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment Second Edition [NEPSY-II]), and emotional-behavioural functioning (parent-reported Child Behaviour Checklist, [CBCL]). We developed population means by combining the VTS sample with 629 same-aged HIV-negative children from the local demographic platform. For each outcome, we split the VTS sample into scores above or at/below each population mean and modelled each outcome using logistic regression analyses, overall and stratified by child sex. There was no demonstrated effect of EBF on overall cognitive functioning. EBF was associated with fewer conduct disorders overall (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.44 [95% CI 0.3-0.7], p ≤ 0.01), and there was weak evidence of better cognition in boys who had been exclusively breastfed for 2-5 mo versus ≤1 mo (Learning subscale aOR 2.07 [95% CI 1.0-4.3], p = 0.05). Other factors associated with better child cognition were higher maternal cognitive ability (aOR 1.43 [95% CI 1.1-1.9], p = 0.02, Sequential; aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.3-2.4], p < 0.001, Planning subscales) and crèche attendance (aOR 1.96 [95% CI 1.1-3.5], p = 0.02, Sequential subscale). Factors positively associated with executive function were home stimulation (aOR 1.36 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.04, Auditory Attention; aOR 1.35 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.05, Response Set) and crèche (aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.0-3.0], p = 0.05, Animal Sorting). Maternal mental health problems and parenting stress were associated with increased emotional-behavioural problems on the total CBCL (aOR 2.44 [95% CI 1.3-4.6], p = 0.01; aOR 7.04 [95% CI 4.2-11.9], p < 0.001, respectively). Maternal HIV status was not associated with any outcomes in the overall cohort. Limitations include the nonrandomised study design and lack of maternal mental health assessment at the child's birth.EBF was associated with fewer than average conduct disorders and weakly associated with improved cognitive development in boys. Efforts to improve stimulation at home, reduce maternal stress, and enable crèche attendance are likely to improve executive function and emotional-behavioural development of children.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in adult mortality in a population serviced by a public-sector antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in rural South Africa using a demographic surveillance system. METHODS: Verbal autopsies were conducted for all 7930 deaths observed between January 2000 and December 2006 in a demographic surveillance population of 74 500 in the Umkhanyakude district of northern KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Age-standardized mortality rate ratios (SMRRs) were calculated for adults aged 25 to 49 years, the group most affected by HIV, for the 2 years before 2004 and the 3 subsequent years, during which ART had been available. FINDINGS: Between 2002-2003 (the period before ART) and 2004-2006 (the period after ART), HIV-related age-standardized mortality declined significantly, from 22.52 to 17.58 per 1000 person-years in women 25-49 years of age (P < 0.001; SMRR: 0.780; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.691-0.881), and from 26.46 to 18.68 per 1000 person-years in men 25-49 years of age (P < 0.001; SMRR: 0.706; 95% CI: 0.615-0.811). On sensitivity analysis the results were robust to the possible effect of misclassification of HIV-related deaths. CONCLUSION: Overall population mortality and HIV-related adult mortality declined significantly following ART roll-out in a community with a high prevalence of HIV infection. A clear public health message of the benefits of treatment, as revealed by these findings, should be part of a multi-faceted strategy to encourage people to find out their HIV serostatus and seek care.

Introduction We aimed to quantify and identify associated factors of linkage to HIV care following home‐based HIV counselling and testing (HBHCT) in the ongoing ANRS 12249 treatment‐as‐prevention (TasP) cluster‐randomized trial in rural KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa. Methods Individuals ≥16 years were offered HBHCT; those who were identified HIV positive were referred to cluster‐based TasP clinics and offered antiretroviral treatment (ART) immediately (five clusters) or according to national guidelines (five clusters). HIV care was also available in the local Department of Health (DoH) clinics. Linkage to HIV care was defined as TasP or DoH clinic attendance within three months of referral among adults not in HIV care at referral. Associated factors were identified using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for trial arm. Results Overall, 1323 HIV‐positive adults (72.9% women) not in HIV care at referral were included, of whom 36.9% (n=488) linked to care 42%, p

Concerns of possible risk of mother to child HBV transmission through breastfeeding arouse when mothers present high levels of HBV DNA in breast milk. Here we describe the case of an HIV-HBV coinfected mother who presents a highly replicative HBV infection postdelivery and showed high level of HBV DNA in breast milk. Despite cumulative exposure to HBV infectious particles during breastfeeding, the child, who had been correctly vaccinated, was not infected by HBV.

Exposure of the infant's gut to cell-associated and cell-free HIV-1 trafficking in breast milk (BM) remains a primary cause of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). The mammary gland represents a unique environment for HIV-1 replication and host-virus interplay. We aimed to explore the origin of the virus transmitted during breastfeeding, and the link with quasi-species found in acellular and cellular fractions of breast-milk (BM) and in maternal plasma. The C2-V5 region of the env gene was amplified, cloned and sequenced from the RNA and DNA of BM, the RNA from the mother's plasma (PLA) and the DNA from infant's dried blood spot (DBS) in 11 post-natal mother-infant pairs. Sequences were assembled in Geneious, aligned in ClustalX, manually edited in SeAL and phylogenetic reconstruction was undertaken in PhyML and MrBayes. We estimated the timing of transmission (ETT) and reconstructed the time for the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the infant in BEAST. Transmission of single quasi-species was observed in 9 of 11 cases. Phylogenetic analysis illustrated a BM transmission event by cell-free virus in 4 cases, and by cell-associated virus in 2 cases but could not be identified in the remaining 5 cases. Molecular clock estimates, of the infant ETT and TMRCA, corresponded well with the timing of transmission estimated by sequential infant DNA PCR in 10 of 11 children. The TMRCA of BM variants were estimated to emerge during gestation in 8 cases. We hypothesize that in the remaining cases, the breast was seeded with a long-lived lineage latently infecting resting T-cells. Our analysis illustrated the role of DNA and RNA virus in MTCT. We postulate that DNA archived viruses stem from latently infected quiescent T-cells within breast tissue and MTCT can be expected to continue, albeit at low levels, should interventions not effectively target these cells.

BackgroundThe relationship between loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) in HIV treatment and care programmes and psychosocial factors, including self-reported stigma, is important to understand. This prospective cohort study explored stigma and LTFU in treatment eligible adults who had yet not started antiretroviral therapy (ART).MethodsPsychosocial, clinical and demographic data were collected at a baseline interview. Self-reported stigma was measured with a multi-item scale. LTFU was defined as not attending clinic in the 90 days since last appointment or before death. Data was collected between January 2009 and January 2013 and analysed using Cox Regression.Results380 individuals were recruited (median time in study 3.35 years, total time at risk 1065.81 person-years). 203 were retained (53.4%), 109 were LTFU (28.7%), 48 had died and were not LTFU at death (12.6%) and 20 had transferred out (5.3%). The LTFU rate was 10.65 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 8.48-12.34). 362 individuals (95.3%) started ART. Stigma total score (categorised in quartiles) was not significantly associated with LTFU in either univariable or multivariable analysis (adjusting for other variables in the final model): second quartile aHR 0.77 (95%CI: 0.41-1.46), third quartile aHR 1.20(95%CI: 0.721-2.04), fourth quartile aHR 0.62 (95%CI: 0.35-1.11). In the final multivariable model, higher LTFU rates were associated with male gender, increased openness with friends/family and believing that community problems would be solved at higher levels. Lower LTFU rates were independently associated with increased year of age, greater reliance on family/friends, and having children.ConclusionsDemographic and other psychosocial factors were more closely related to LTFU than self-reported stigma. This may be consistent with high levels of social exposure to HIV and ART and with stigma affecting LTFU less than other stages of care. Research and clinical implications are discussed.

Expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) using universal test and treat (UTT) has been suggested as a strategy to eliminate HIV in South Africa within 7 y based on an influential mathematical modeling study. However, the underlying deterministic model was criticized widely, and other modeling studies did not always confirm the study's finding. The objective of our study is to better understand the implications of different model structures and assumptions, so as to arrive at the best possible predictions of the long-term impact of UTT and the possibility of elimination of HIV.We developed nine structurally different mathematical models of the South African HIV epidemic in a stepwise approach of increasing complexity and realism. The simplest model resembles the initial deterministic model, while the most comprehensive model is the stochastic microsimulation model STDSIM, which includes sexual networks and HIV stages with different degrees of infectiousness. We defined UTT as annual screening and immediate ART for all HIV-infected adults, starting at 13% in January 2012 and scaled up to 90% coverage by January 2019. All models predict elimination, yet those that capture more processes underlying the HIV transmission dynamics predict elimination at a later point in time, after 20 to 25 y. Importantly, the most comprehensive model predicts that the current strategy of ART at CD4 count ≤350 cells/µl will also lead to elimination, albeit 10 y later compared to UTT. Still, UTT remains cost-effective, as many additional life-years would be saved. The study's major limitations are that elimination was defined as incidence below 1/1,000 person-years rather than 0% prevalence, and drug resistance was not modeled.Our results confirm previous predictions that the HIV epidemic in South Africa can be eliminated through universal testing and immediate treatment at 90% coverage. However, more realistic models show that elimination is likely to occur at a much later point in time than the initial model suggested. Also, UTT is a cost-effective intervention, but less cost-effective than previously predicted because the current South African ART treatment policy alone could already drive HIV into elimination. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Background: National estimates for the numbers of babies born small for gestational age and the comorbidity with preterm birth are unavailable. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of term and preterm babies born small for gestational age (term-SGA and preterm-SGA), and the relation to low birthweight (

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral drug interventions significantly reduce the risk of HIV transmission to infants through breastfeeding. We report diarrhoea prevalence and all-cause mortality at 12 months of age according to infant feeding practices, among infants born to HIV-infected and uninfected mothers in South Africa. METHODS: A non-randomised intervention cohort study that followed both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected mothers and their infants until 18 months of age. Mothers were supported in their infant feeding choice. Detailed morbidity and vital status data were collected over the first year. At the time, only single dose nevirapine was available to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV. RESULTS: Among 2,589 infants, detailed feeding data and vital status were available for 1,082 HIV-exposed infants and 1,155 HIV non-exposed infants. Among exclusively breastfed (EBF) infants there were 9.4 diarrhoeal days per 1,000 child days (95%CI. 9.12-9.82) while among infants who were never breastfed there were 15.6 diarrhoeal days per 1,000 child days (95%CI. 14.62-16.59). Exclusive breastfeeding was associated with fewer acute, persistent and total diarrhoeal events than mixed or no breastfeeding in both HIV-exposed infants and also infants of HIV uninfected mothers. In an adjusted cox regression analysis, the risk of death among all infants by 12 months of age was significantly greater in those who were never breastfed (aHR 3.5, p

To determine the frequency and patterns of acquired antiretroviral drug resistance in a rural primary health care programme in South Africa.Cross-sectional study nested within HIV treatment programme.Adult (≥ 18 years) HIV-infected individuals initially treated with a first-line stavudine- or zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen and with evidence of virological failure (one viral load >1000 copies/ml) were enrolled from 17 rural primary health care clinics. Genotypic resistance testing was performed using the in-house SATuRN/Life Technologies system. Sequences were analysed and genotypic susceptibility scores (GSS) for standard second-line regimens were calculated using the Stanford HIVDB 6.0.5 algorithms.A total of 222 adults were successfully genotyped for HIV drug resistance between December 2010 and March 2012. The most common regimens at time of genotype were stavudine, lamivudine and efavirenz (51%); and stavudine, lamivudine and nevirapine (24%). Median duration of ART was 42 months (interquartile range (IQR) 32-53) and median duration of antiretroviral failure was 27 months (IQR 17-40). One hundred and ninety one (86%) had at least one drug resistance mutation. For 34 individuals (15%), the GSS for the standard second-line regimen was

BACKGROUND:The association of HIV with chronic morbidity and inflammatory markers (cytokines) in older adults (50+years) is potentially relevant for clinical care, but data from African populations is scarce. OBJECTIVE:To examine levels of chronic morbidity by HIV and ART status in older adults (50+years) and subsequent associations with selected pro-inflammatory cytokines and body mass index. METHODS:Ordinary, ordered and generalized ordered logistic regression techniques were employed to compare chronic morbidity (heart disease (angina), arthritis, stroke, hypertension, asthma and diabetes) and cytokines (Interleukins-1 and -6, C-Reactive Protein and Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha) by HIV and ART status on a cross-sectional random sample of 422 older adults nested within a defined rural South African population based demographic surveillance. RESULTS:Using a composite measure of all morbidities, controlling for age, gender, BMI, smoking and wealth quintile, HIV-infected individuals on ART had 51% decreased odds (95% CI:0.26-0.92) of current morbidity compared to HIV-uninfected. In adjusted regression, compared to HIV-uninfected, the proportional odds (aPOR) of having elevated inflammation markers of IL6 (>1.56 pg/mL) was nearly doubled in HIV-infected individuals on (aPOR 1.84; 95%CI: 1.05-3.21) and not on (aPOR 1.94; 95%CI: 1.11-3.41) ART. Compared to HIV-uninfected, HIV-infected individuals on ART had >twice partial proportional odds (apPOR=2.30;p=0.004) of having non-clinically significant raised hsCRP levels(>1 ug/mL); ART-naïve HIV-infected individuals had >double apPOR of having hsCRP levels indicative of increased heart disease risk(>3.9 ug/mL;p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS:Although HIV status was associated with increased inflammatory markers, our results highlight reduced morbidity in those receiving ART and underscore the need of pro-actively extending these services to HIV-uninfected older adults, beyond mere provision at fixed clinics. Providing health services through regular community chronic disease screening would ensure health care reaches all older adults in need.

Little is known about the variability of CD4 counts in the general population of sub-Saharan Africa countries affected by the HIV epidemic. We investigated factors associated with CD4 counts in a rural area in South Africa with high HIV prevalence and high antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage.CD4 counts, health status, body mass index (BMI), demographic characteristics and HIV status were assessed in 4990 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa; antiretroviral treatment duration was obtained from a linked clinical database. Multivariable regression analysis, overall and stratified by HIV status, was performed with CD4 count levels as outcome.Median CD4 counts were significantly higher in women than in men overall (714 vs. 630 cells/µl, p

Assumptions about survival of HIV-infected children in Africa without antiretroviral therapy need to be updated to inform ongoing UNAIDS modelling of paediatric HIV epidemics among children. Improved estimates of infant survival by timing of HIV-infection (perinatally or postnatally) are thus needed.A pooled analysis was conducted of individual data of all available intervention cohorts and randomized trials on prevention of HIV mother-to-child transmission in Africa. Studies were right-censored at the time of infant antiretroviral initiation. Overall mortality rate per 1000 child-years of follow-up was calculated by selected maternal and infant characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival curves by child's HIV infection status and timing of HIV infection. Individual data from 12 studies were pooled, with 12,112 children of HIV-infected women. Mortality rates per 1,000 child-years follow-up were 39.3 and 381.6 for HIV-uninfected and infected children respectively. One year after acquisition of HIV infection, an estimated 26% postnatally and 52% perinatally infected children would have died; and 4% uninfected children by age 1 year. Mortality was independently associated with maternal death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.2, 95%CI 1.6-3.0), maternal CD4

INTRODUCTION:Transmission through breastfeeding remains important for mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in resource-limited settings. We quantify the relationship between cell-free (RNA) and cell-associated (DNA) shedding of HIV-1 virus in breastmilk and the risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission in the first 6 months postpartum. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Thirty-six HIV-positive mothers who transmitted HIV-1 by breastfeeding were matched to 36 non-transmitting HIV-1 infected mothers in a case-control study nested in a cohort of HIV-infected women. RNA and DNA were quantified in the same breastmilk sample taken at 6 weeks and 6 months. Cox regression analysis assessed the association between cell-free and cell-associated virus levels and risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission. RESULTS:There were higher median levels of cell-free than cell-associated HIV-1 virus (per ml) in breastmilk at 6 weeks and 6 months. Multivariably, adjusting for antenatal CD4 count and maternal plasma viral load, at 6 weeks, each 10-fold increase in cell-free or cell-associated levels (per ml) was significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission but stronger for cell-associated than cell-free levels [2.47 (95% CI 1.33-4.59) vs. aHR 1.52 (95% CI, 1.17-1.96), respectively]. At 6 months, cell-free and cell-associated levels (per ml) in breastmilk remained significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission but was stronger for cell-free than cell-associated levels [aHR 2.53 (95% CI 1.64-3.92) vs. 1.73 (95% CI 0.94-3.19), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS:The findings suggest that cell-associated virus level (per ml) is more important for early postpartum HIV-1 transmission (at 6 weeks) than cell-free virus. As cell-associated virus levels have been consistently detected in breastmilk despite antiretroviral therapy, this highlights a potential challenge for resource-limited settings to achieve the UNAIDS goal for 2015 of eliminating vertical transmission. More studies would further knowledge on mechanisms of HIV-1 transmission and help develop more effective drugs during lactation.

Hypertension and excess body weight are major risk factors of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in developing countries. In countries with a high HIV prevalence, it is unknown how increased antiretroviral treatment and care (ART) coverage has affected the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and hypertension. We conducted a health survey in 2010 based on the WHO STEPwise approach in 14,198 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance area in rural South Africa to investigate factors associated with hypertension and excess weight including HIV infection and ART status. Women had a significantly higher median body mass index (BMI) than men (26.4 vs. 21.2 kg/m(2), p

Since November 2009, WHO recommends that adults infected with HIV should initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4+ cell counts of ≤350 cells/µl rather than ≤200 cells/µl. South Africa decided to adopt this strategy for pregnant and TB co-infected patients only. We estimated the impact of fully adopting the new WHO guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and associated costs.We used an established model of the transmission and control of HIV in specified sexual networks and healthcare settings. We quantified the model to represent Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We predicted the HIV epidemic dynamics, number on ART and program costs under the new guidelines relative to treating patients at ≤200 cells/µl for the next 30 years. During the first five years, the new WHO treatment guidelines require about 7% extra annual investments, whereas 28% more patients receive treatment. Furthermore, there will be a more profound impact on HIV incidence, leading to relatively less annual costs after seven years. The resulting cumulative net costs reach a break-even point after on average 16 years.Our study strengthens the WHO recommendation of starting ART at ≤350 cells/µl for all HIV-infected patients. Apart from the benefits associated with many life-years saved, a modest frontloading appears to lead to net savings within a limited time-horizon. This finding is robust to alternative assumptions and foreseeable changes in ART prices and effectiveness. Therefore, South Africa should aim at rapidly expanding its healthcare infrastructure to fully embrace the new WHO guidelines.

To assess whether treatment outcomes vary with age for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a large rural HIV treatment cohort.Retrospective cohort analysis using data from a public HIV Treatment & Care Programme.Adults initiating ART 1(st) August 2004-31(st) October 2009 were stratified by age at initiation: young adults (16-24 years) mid-age adults (25-49 years) and older (≥50 years) adults. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate mortality rates and age and person-time stratified Cox regression to determine factors associated with mortality. Changes in CD4 cell counts were quantified using a piecewise linear model based on follow-up CD4 cell counts measured at six-monthly time points.8846 adults were included, 808 (9.1%) young adults; 7119 (80.5%) mid-age adults and 919 (10.4%) older adults, with 997 deaths over 14,778 person-years of follow-up. Adjusting for baseline characteristics, older adults had 32% excess mortality (p = 0.004) compared to those aged 25-49 years. Overall mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years were 6.18 (95% CI 4.90-7.78); 6.55 (95% CI 6.11-7.02) and 8.69 (95% CI 7.34-10.28) for young, mid-age and older adults respectively. In the first year on ART, for older compared to both young and mid-aged adults, MR per 100 person-years were significantly higher; 0-3 months (MR: 27.1 vs 17.17 and 21.36) and 3-12 months (MR: 9.5 vs 4.02 and 6.02) respectively. CD4 count reconstitution was lower, despite better virological response in the older adults. There were no significant differences in MR after 1 year of ART. Baseline markers of advanced disease were independently associated with very early mortality (0-3 months) whilst immunological and virological responses were associated with mortality after 12 months.Early ART initiation and improving clinical care of older adults are required to reduce high early mortality and enhance immunologic recovery, particularly in the initial phases of ART.

The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15-49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1-37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0-26.4). For males (15-49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8-24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1-14.3). For both sexes (15-49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6-31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6-21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART).

ObjectivesResearch on migration and HIV has largely focused on male migration, often failing to measure HIV risks associated with migration for women. We aimed to establish whether associations between migration and HIV infection differ for women and men, and identify possible mechanisms by which women's migration contributes to their high infection risk.DesignData on socio-demographic characteristics, patterns of migration, sexual behavior and HIV infection status were obtained for a population of 11,677 women aged 15-49 and men aged 15-54, resident members of households within a demographic surveillance area participating in HIV surveillance in 2003-04.MethodsLogistic regression was conducted to examine whether sex and migration were independently associated with HIV infection in three additive effects models, using measures of recent migration, household presence and migration frequency. Multiplicative effects models were fitted to explore whether the risk of HIV associated with migration differed for males and females. Further modeling and simulations explored whether composition or behavioral differences accounted for observed associations.ResultsRelative to non-migrant males, non-migrant females had higher odds of being HIV-positive (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [1.49-1.99]), but odds were higher for female migrants (aOR = 2.55 [2.07-3.13]). Female migrants also had higher odds of infection relative to female non-migrants (aOR = 1.48 [1.23-1.77]). The association between number of sexual partners over the lifetime and HIV infection was modified by both sex and migrant status: For male non-migrants, each additional partner was associated with 3% higher odds of HIV infection (aOR = 1.03 [1.02-1.05]); for male migrants the association between number of partners and HIV infection was non-significant. Each additional partner increased odds of HIV infection by 22% for female non-migrants (aOR = 1.22 [1.12-1.32]) and 46% for female migrants (aOR = 1.46 [1.25-1.69]).ConclusionsHigher risk sexual behavior in the context of migration increased women's likelihood of HIV infection.

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) remains a leading cause of death for HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. Improved treatment strategies are needed if individuals are to benefit from the increasing availability of antiretroviral therapy. We investigated the factors associated with mortality in routine care in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.A prospective year long, single-center, consecutive case series of individuals diagnosed with cryptococcal meningitis 190 patients were diagnosed with culture positive cryptococcal meningitis, of whom 186 were included in the study. 52/186 (28.0%) patients died within 14 days of diagnosis and 60/186 (32.3%) had died by day 28. In multivariable cox regression analysis, focal neurology (aHR 11 95%C.I. 3.08-39.3, P

Both breastfeeding pattern and duration are associated with postnatal HIV acquisition; their relative contribution has not been reliably quantified.Pooled data from 2 cohorts: in urban West Africa where breastfeeding cessation at 4 months was recommended but exclusive breastfeeding was rare (Ditrame Plus, DP); in rural South Africa where high rates of exclusive breastfeeding were achieved, but with longer duration (Vertical Transmission Study, VTS). 18-months HIV postnatal transmission (PT) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier in infants who were HIV negative, and assumed uninfected, at age >1 month. Censoring with (to assess impact of mode of breastfeeding) and without (to assess effect of breastfeeding duration) breastfeeding cessation considered as a competing event. Of 1195 breastfed infants, not HIV-infected perinatally, 38% DP and 83% VTS children were still breastfed at age 6 months. By age 3 months, 66% of VTS children were exclusively breastfed since birth and 55% of DP infants predominantly breastfed (breastmilk+water-based drinks). 18-month PT risk (95%CI) in VTS was double that in DP: 9% (7-11) and 5% (3-8), respectively (p = 0.03). However, once duration of breastfeeding was allowed for in a competing risk analysis assuming that all children would have been breastfed for 18-month, the estimated PT risk was 16% (8-28) in DP and 14% (10-18) in VTS (p = 0.32). 18-months PT risk was 3.9% (2.3-6.5) among infants breastfed for less than 6 months, and 8.7% (6.8-11.0) among children breastfed for more than 6 months; crude hazard ratio (HR): 2.1 (1.2-3.7), p = 0.02; adjusted HR 1.8 (0.9-3.4), p = 0.06. In individual analyses of PT rates for specific breastfeeding durations, risks among children exclusively breastfed were very similar to those in children predominantly breastfed for the same period. Children exposed to solid foods during the first 2 months of life were 2.9 (1.1-8.0) times more likely to be infected postnatally than children never exposed to solids this early (adjusted competing risk analysis, p = 0.04).Breastfeeding duration is a major determinant of postnatal HIV transmission. The PT risk did not differ between exclusively and predominantly breastfed children; the negative effect of mixed breastfeeding with solids on PT were confirmed.

BackgroundIn areas where adult HIV prevalence has reached hyperendemic levels, many infants remain at risk of acquiring HIV infection. Timely access to care and treatment for HIV-infected infants and young children remains an important challenge. We explore the extent to which public sector roll-out has met the estimated need for paediatric treatment in a rural South African setting.MethodsLocal facility and population-based data were used to compare the number of HIV infected children accessing HAART before 2008, with estimates of those in need of treatment from a deterministic modeling approach. The impact of programmatic improvements on estimated numbers of children in need of treatment was assessed in sensitivity analyses.FindingsIn the primary health care programme of HIV treatment 346 children ConclusionDespite progress in delivering decentralized HIV services to a rural sub-district in South Africa, substantial unmet need for treatment remains. In a local setting, very few children were initiated on treatment under 1 year of age and steps have now been taken to successfully improve early diagnosis and referral of infected infants.

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for six months is the mainstay of global child health and the preferred feeding option for HIV-infected mothers for whom replacement feeding is inappropriate. Promotion of community-level EBF requires effective personnel and management to ensure quality counselling and support for women. We present a costing and cost effectiveness analysis of a successful intervention to promote EBF in high HIV prevalence area in South Africa, and implications for scale-up in the province of KwaZulu-Natal.The costing of the intervention as implemented was calculated, in addition to the modelling of the costs and outcomes associated with running the intervention at provincial level under three different scenarios: full intervention (per protocol), simplified version (half the number of visits compared to the full intervention; more clinic compared to home visits) and basic version (one third the number of visits compared to the full intervention; all clinic and no home visits). Implementation of the full scenario costs R95 million ($14 million) per annum; the simplified version R47 million ($7 million) and the basic version R4 million ($2 million). Although the cost of the basic scenario is less than one tenth of the cost of the simplified scenario, modelled effectiveness of the full and simplified versions suggest they would be 10 times more effective compared to the basic intervention. A further analysis modelled the costs per increased month of EBF due to each intervention: R337 ($48), R206 ($29), and R616 ($88) for the full, simplified and basic scenarios respectively. In addition to the average cost effectiveness the incremental cost effectiveness ratios associated with moving from the less effective scenarios to the more effective scenarios were calculated and reported: Nothing-Basic R616 ($88), Basic-Simplified R162 ($23) and Simplified-Full R879 ($126).The simplified scenario, with a combination of clinic and home visits, is the most efficient in terms of cost per increased month of EBF and has the lowest incremental cost effectiveness ratio.

Rapid testing of pregnant women aims to increase uptake of HIV testing and results and thus optimize care. We report on the acceptability of HIV counselling and testing, and uptake of results, before and after the introduction of rapid testing in this area.HIV counsellors offered counselling and testing to women attending 8 antenatal clinics, prior to enrolment into a study examining infant feeding and postnatal HIV transmission. From August 2001 to April 2003, blood was sent for HIV ELISA testing in line with the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) programme in the district. From May 2003 to September 2004 women were offered a rapid HIV test as part of the PMTCT programme, but also continued to have ELISA testing for study purposes. Of 12,323 women counselled, 5,879 attended clinic prior to May 2003, and 6,444 after May 2003 when rapid testing was introduced; of whom 4,324 (74.6%) and 4,810 (74.6%) agreed to have an HIV test respectively. Of the 4,810 women who had a rapid HIV test, only 166 (3.4%) requested to receive their results on the same day as testing, the remainder opted to return for results at a later appointment. Women with secondary school education were less likely to agree to testing than those with no education (AOR 0.648, p35 years (AOR 0.756, p

The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay), a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with non-recent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR)) and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longitudinally measured HIV incidence.We measured the long-term FPR in individuals with two positive HIV tests (in the HIV surveillance, 2003-2006) more than 306 days apart (sample size n = 1,065). We implemented four different formulae to calculate HIV incidence using cBED assay testing (n = 11,755) and obtained confidence intervals (CIs) by directly calculating the central 95(th) percentile of incidence values. We observed 4,869 individuals over 7,685 person-years for longitudinal HIV incidence estimation. The long-term FPR was 0.0169 (95% CI 0.0100-0.0266). Using this FPR, the cross-sectional cBED-based HIV incidence estimates (per 100 people per year) varied between 3.03 (95% CI 2.44-3.63) and 3.19 (95% CI 2.57-3.82), depending on the incidence formula. Using a long-term FPR of 0.0560 based on previous studies, HIV incidence estimates varied between 0.65 (95% CI 0.00-1.32) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.00-1.43). The longitudinally measured HIV incidence was 3.09 per 100 people per year (95% CI 2.69-3.52), after adjustment to the sex-age distribution of the sample used in cBED assay-based estimation.In a rural community in South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the long-term FPR of the cBED assay is substantially lower than previous estimates. The cBED assay performs well in HIV incidence estimation if the locally measured long-term FPR is used, but significantly underestimates incidence when a FPR estimate based on previous studies in other settings is used.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the scale-up of a decentralized HIV treatment programme delivered through the primary health care system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and to assess trends in baseline characteristics and outcomes in the study population. METHODS: The programme started delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in October 2004. Information on all patients initiated on ART was captured in the programme database and follow-up status was updated monthly. All adult patients (> 16 years) who initiated ART between October 2004 and September 2008 were included and stratified into 6-month groups. Clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were compared between the groups. Retention in care, mortality, loss to follow-up and virological outcomes were assessed at 12 months post-ART initiation. FINDINGS: A total of 5719 adults initiated on ART were included (67.9% female). Median baseline CD4+ lymphocyte count was 116 cells/μl (interquartile range, IQR: 53-173). There was an increase in the proportion of women who initiated ART while pregnant but no change in other baseline characteristics over time. Overall retention in care at 12 months was 84.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 82.6-85.3); 10.9% died (95% CI: 9.8-12.0); 3.7% were lost to follow-up (95% CI: 3.0-4.4). Mortality was highest in the first 3 months after ART initiation: 30.1 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 26.3-34.5). At 12 months 23.0% had a detectable viral load (> 25 copies/ml) (95% CI: 19.5-25.5). CONCLUSION: Outcomes were not affected by rapid expansion of this decentralized HIV treatment programme. The relatively high rates of detectable viral load highlight the need for further efforts to improve the quality of services.