Search

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING: NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. publishedVersion

BackgroundDiarrheal disease remains a leading cause of childhood illness and mortality and Shigella is a major etiological contributor for which a vaccine may soon be available. This study aimed to model the spatiotemporal variation in pediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).MethodsIndependent participant data on Shigella positivity in stool samples collected from children aged ≤59 months were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies. Covariates included household- and subject-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted, and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum.Findings20 studies from 23 countries contributed 66,563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Shigella probability exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Improved sanitation and open defecation decreased Shigella odds by 19% and 18% respectively compared to unimproved sanitation.InterpretationThe distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors like temperature than previously recognized. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, though hotspots also occur in South and Central America, the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, and New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritization of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns.FundingNASA 16-GEO16-0047; NIH-NIAID 1R03AI151564-01; BMGF OPP1066146.

Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen‐specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens—adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia—was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset—precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non‐linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7‐day average temperatures—a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.85) above 28°C—while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36–1.50), in the 20–35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower‐than‐average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea‐causing agents as the global climate changes., Key Points Many pathogens cause diarrhea in children and are affected in different ways by weather conditions like rainfall, temperature, and humidityDiarrhea‐causing bacteria infections increase in warm, humid weather and when soil is moist, though ETEC is sensitive to rainfall extremesHigh humidity decreases prevalence of several viruses, though only rotavirus increases in cold weather and following heavy surface runoff