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The May 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA rose compared to the previous month by 0.1% from 2.3% to 2.4%. Also, the GDP-weighted average increased by 0.1% from 1.3% to 1.4%. On the other hand, inflation expectations fell by 0.1% from 4.6% to 4.5% according to the simple average of the surveys, and they remained stable at 4.5% under the GDP-weighted average in May. At the individual country level, growth expectations rose in three countries, remained stable in five and fell in none. They increased by 0.3% both in Uruguay from 2.3% to 2.6% and in Mexico from 1.7% to 2.0% compared to April. They also rose by 0.1% in Peru from 2.5% to 2.6%. Inflation expectations declined in four countries, rose only in one and remained constant in three. The most significant fall was observed in Uruguay by 0.6% from 7.8% to 7.2%, followed by 0.1% declines in: Brazil from 4.0% to 3.9%, Guatemala from 4.5% to 4.4% and Peru from 3.2% to 3.1%. Mexico is the only country where inflation expectations for 2017 increased, by 0.2% from 5.7% to 5.9%. With these results, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations ranged from 2.9% in Chile to 7.2% in Uruguay.

The July 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA remained stable at 2.4% compared to June. At the same time, the GDP-weighted average fell by 0.1% from 1.4% to 1.3% compared to the previous month. On the other hand, inflation expectations for the region for 2017 declined by 0.2% from 4.4% to 4.2% under both the simple average basis and the GDP-weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2017 declined by 0.2% in Colombia and by 0.1% in Brazil. They remained stable compared to the previous month in the other six countries: Chile, Guatemala, Mexico Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. Inflation expectations fell by 0.5% in Uruguay, by 0.3% both in Brazil and Chile, by 0.2% in Peru and by 0.1% in Colombia compared to the previous month. Contrarily, they rose by 0.2% in Guatemala and by 0.1% in Mexico. With these results, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.3% in Brazil to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations ranged from 2.5% in Chile to 6.4% in Uruguay. Download the full report and data.

The March 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA rose compared to the previous month by 0. 1% from 2. 3% to 2. 4%, while the GDP-weighted average of growth expectations remained stable at 1. 3%. On the other hand, inflation expectations for 2017 fell by 0. 1% both on the simple average basis from 4. 7% to 4. 6% and on the GDP-weighted average basis from 4. 6% to 4. 5%. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2017 rose significantly compared to the previous month in Uruguay by 0. 9% from 1. 4% to 2. 3%, followed by Paraguay by 0. 2% from 3. 8% to 4. 0%. Growth expectations fell by 0.2% in Peru from 3.5% to 3.3%, and by 0.1% both in Chile from 1.9% to 1.8%, and in Guatemala from 3.3% to 3.2%. Inflation expectations fell by 0.6% in Uruguay from 8.5% to 7.9% and by 0.3% in two countries: Brazil from 4.4% to 4.1% and Paraguay from 4.3% to 4.0%. They also declined in Colombia by 0.1% from 4.6% to 4.5%. Inflation expectations rose by 0.2% in Mexico from 5.4% to 5.6%, and by 0.1% both in Chile from 2.9% to 3.0% and in Peru from 3.0% to 3.1%. According to surveys in March, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations ranged from 3.0% in Chile to 7.9% in Uruguay.

The February 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks in the region, simple average growth expectations for2017 for the eight countries covered by Revela fell by 0.1% from 2.4% to 2.3% compared to December while inflation expectations remained constant at 4.7%. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2017 increased for Paraguay by 0.1%, remained constant in Brazil and Chile but fell in five countries: in Colombia by 0.3%, in Paraguay by 0.2%, and in Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay by 0.1% in all three cases. Inflation expectations for 2017 increased sharply in Mexico by 1.2% followed by a 0.1% increase in Colombia. They fell in four countries: in Paraguay and Uruguay by 0.4%, in Guatemala by 0.2%, in Brazil by 0.1% compared to December, and remained constant in Chile and Peru. Growth expectations for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 3.8% in Paraguay while inflation expectations ranged from 2.9% to 8.4% in January

The August 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has remained stable at 1.7% compared to the July. Similarly, the GDP weighted-average growth rate expected for 2016 remained stable at -0.4% in August. At the same time, inflation expectations decreased by 0.2% from 5.4% to 5.2% on a simple average basis but increased by 0.1% from 5.6% to 5.7% on a GDP weighted average basis. Growth expectations increased by 0.1% in Brazil from -3.3% to -3.2% and fell by 0.1% both in Chile (from 1.7% to 1.6%) and Mexico (from 2.3% to 2.2%). They remained constant in Peru at 3.8%, Guatemala at 3.4%, Paraguay at 3.0%, Colombia at 2.8% and Uruguay at 0.0%. Expected growth for the region now ranges from -3.2% in Brazil to 3.8% in Peru. Inflation expectations increased in Colombia by 0.3% from 6.5% to 6.8%, in Guatemala by 0.2% from 4.3% to 4.5% and in Brazil by 0.1% from 7.2% to 7.3%. They decreased in Uruguay by 0.9% from 10.3% to 9.4%, in Paraguay by 0.5% from 4.8% to 4.3%, in Peru by 0.3% from 3.3% to 3.0% and in Mexico by 0.1% from 3.2% to 3.1%. Finally, they remained stable in Chile at 3.5%. Inflation expectations for the region now range from 3.0% in Peru to 9.4% in Uruguay.

The July 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has decreased by 0. 1% from 1. 8% to 1. 7% compared to the previous month. The GDP weighted-average growth rate expected increased by 0. 1% from -0. 5% to -0. 4%. At the same time, inflation expectations increased by 0. 1% from 5. 3% to 5. 4% on a simple average basis, and remained stable at 5. 6% on a GDP weighted average basis. Growth expectations for 2016 rose by 0. 1% both in Brazil and Peru. They declined by 0. 4% in Guatemala and by 0. 1% both in Colombia and Mexico, while they remained constant in Paraguay at 3. 0%, Chile at 1. 7% and Uruguay at 0%. Expected growth for the region now ranges from -3. 3% in Brazil to 3. 4% in Guatemala. Inflation expectations for 2016 declined by 0. 2% in Peru and by 0. 1% both in Brazil and Guatemala, while they increased by 0. 3% in Colombia and Paraguay, and by 0. 1% in Mexico and Uruguay. Inflation expectations remained stable in Chile at 3. 5%. Inflation expectations for the region now range from 3. 2% in Mexico to 10. 3% in Uruguay.

The October 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA remained stable at 1.7% compared to September while the GDP-weighted average growth rate fell by 0.1% from -0.4% to -0.5% compared to the previous month. At the individual country level, growth expectations increased in Paraguay by 0.4%, in Uruguay by 0.2%, and in Chile and Peru by 0.1%. They decreased in Colombia by 0.3% and in Guatemala by 0.2% and remained stable Mexico at 2.1% and Brazil at -3.2%. On the other hand, inflation expectations for the region for 2016 fell by 0.2% on a simple average basis from 5.2% to 5.0% and also by 0.2% on a GDP weighted average basis from 5.6% to 5.4%. Inflation expectations fell in Brazil by 0.4%, in Colombia and Uruguay by 0.3%, in Chile by 0.2% and in Paraguay by 0.1%. They increased by 0.1% both in Guatemala and Mexico and remained stable only in Peru at 3.3%. According to surveys in November, expected growth in the region for 2016 ranged from -3.2% in Brazil to 3.9% in Peru, while expected inflation ranged from 3.2% in Chile to 8.9% in Uruguay. Inflation expectations for 2016 ranged from 3.2% in Mexico to 9.2% in Uruguay.

The April 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that simple average growth expectations for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0.1% from 1.8% to 1.7% compared to previous month. Similarly, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have decreased by 0.1% from -0.6% to -0.7%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2016 have remained stable at 5.3% on a simple average basis, and have fallen by 0.2% on a GDP weighted average basis from 5.7% to 5.5% compared to the previous month. There were differences across countries both for growth and inflation expectations. Growth expectations increased in Guatemala and Peru by 0.1%, while they decreased in Uruguay by 0.7%, in Brazil by 0.2% and in Colombia by 0.1% - and they remained stable in Paraguay at 3.0%, in Mexico at 2. 4% and in Chile at 1.7%. Inflation expectations increased in Colombia by 0.3%, Uruguay by 0.2% and Guatemala by 0.1%, and they decreased in Brazil by 0.4% and in Chile, Mexico and Paraguay by 0.1% in all three cases, and remained constant in Peru at 3. 5%. Expected growth for the region is as low as -3.8% for Brazil and as high as 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges from 3.2% in Mexico to 10.1% in Uruguay.

The November 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have remained constant at 2.0% compared to October. Also, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have remained constant during November at the level of -0.3%. Similarly, 2015 inflation expectations have remained stable at 5.4% on the simple average basis according to November surveys, and have increased by 0. 3% from 6.7% to 7.0% on the GDP weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2015 fell in Brazil and Paraguay by 0. 2% in both cases, remained constant in Colombia at 3.1%, Peru at 2.8% and Uruguay at 1.8%, and increased by 0. 1% three countries: Chile, Guatemala and Mexico. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2015 increased in Colombia by 0.6%, Brazil by 0.5%, Guatemala by 0. 2% and Peru by 0.1%. They remained constant in Uruguay at 9. 6% and Chile at 4.6%, and fell in Paraguay by 0.7% and Mexico by 0.3%. With this results, expected growth for 2015 now ranges between 3.2% in Brazil and 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges between 2.4% in Mexico and 10.3% in Brazil.

The May 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that simple average growth expectations for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have remained constant at 1.7% compared to the previous month. Similarly, the GDP weighted average growth expectations remained stable at -0.7%. Also inflation expectations for 2016 remained stable in May compared to previous month both on the simple average basis at 5.3% and on the GDP weighted average basis at 5.5%. At the individual country level, growth expectations remained constant in six countries: Guatemala at 3.7%, Paraguay at 3.0%, Colombia at 2.9%, Mexico at 2.4%, Chile at 1.7% and Uruguay at 0.3% and decreased by 0.1% in both Brazil and Peru. Inflation expectations fell in Mexico by 0.1%, remained constant in Uruguay at 10.1%, in Colombia at 6.0%, in Paraguay at 4.8%, and in Chile and Peru at 3.5%. Finally, they increased in Paraguay by 0.2% and in Brazil and Guatemala by 0.1% in both countries. Expected growth for the region is as low as -3.9% for Brazil and as high as 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges from 3.1% in Mexico to 10.1% in Uruguay.

According to surveys conducted by Central Banks in the region, 2016 growth expectations have decreased by 0.2% and inflation expectations have increased by 0.2% in January. At the individual country level, growth expectations fell in six countries and remained constant in two. Inflation expectations increased in seven countries and fell in one. Growth expectations for 2016 decreased in Paraguay by 0.7% followed by Brazil andColombia, falling 0.3% and 0.2% respectively compared to the previous month. Further declines were observed in Chile, Guatemala and Uruguay, all by 0.1% in the three cases. Growth expectations remained constant in Peru at 3.2% and in Mexico at 2.7%. Inflation expectations for 2016 increased in Guatemala by 0.7%, in Uruguay by 0.5%, in Brazil and Colombia by 0.2% in both cases, and in Chile, Paraguay and Peru by 0.1% in all three cases. Mexico is the only country where 2016 inflation expectations fell (by 0.2%) compared to the expectations as of December 2015.

The September 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0. 2%, from 2. 4% to 2. 2%, compared to August. Furthermore, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have decreased by 0. 4%, from 0. 3% to -0. 1%, falling below zero. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2015 have increased by 0. 2%, from 5. 1% to 5. 3%, considering a simple average, and by 0. 1% from 6. 4% to 6. 5%, on a GDP weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2015 have fallen in Brazil by 0. 7%, Uruguay by 0. 4%, and Guatemala and Paraguay by 0. 1% in both cases. They have remained constant in Colombia at 3. 5%, Peru at 2. 8%, Mexico by 2. 3% and Chile at 2. 2%. Inflation expectations for 2015 increased by 0. 5% in Chile, Colombia and Peru, by 0. 4% in Uruguay and by 0. 2% in Brazil compared to previous month. They remained stable in Mexico at 2. 8% and decreased by 0. 2% in Guatemala and by 0. 1% in Paraguay. With this results, expected growth for 2015 now ranges between -2. 7% in Brazil and 3. 9% in Paraguay, while expected inflation ranges between 2. 8% in Mexico and 9. 6% in Uruguay.

The October 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0. 2% from 2. 2% to 2. 0% compared to September. Also, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have decreased by 0. 2% from -0. 1% to -0. 3%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2015 have increased by 0. 1% from 5. 3% to 5. 4% considering a simple average, and by 0. 2% from 6. 5% to 6. 7% on a GDP weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations have decreased in Uruguay by 0. 5%, Colombia by 0. 4%, Brazil by 0. 3%, Chile and Paraguay by 0. 2% in both countries, and Guatemala by 0. 1%. They have remained stable in Peru at 2. 8% and Mexico at 2. 3%. Now, growth expectations for 2015 rank from -3. 0% in Brazil to 3. 7% in Paraguay. Inflation expectations for 2015 have increased in Colombia by 0. 9% and Brazil by 0. 3%. They have remained stable in Uruguay at 9. 6% and Paraguay at 4. 4%, and have decreased by 0. 5% in Guatemala and by 0. 1% in Chile, Mexico and Peru. With these results, expected inflation for 2015 ranges between 2. 5% in Guatemala and 9. 8% in Brazil.