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Purpose Various prognostic indexes have been proposed to improve physicians’ ability to predict survival time in advanced cancer patients admitted to palliative care (PC), but no optimal score has still been identified. The study therefore aims to develop and externally validate a new multivariable predictive model in this setting.Methods We developed the model on 1020 cancer patients prospectively enrolled to home care palliative care at VIDAS Milan, Italy, between May 2018 and February 2020 and followed-up to June 2020. The model was then validated among two separate samples of 544 home care and 247 hospice patients. Overall survival was considered as the primary outcome to develop and validate the model; Cox and flexible parametric Royston-Parmar regression models were used.Results Through a four-step modelling process, among 68 clinical factors considered, five predictors were included in the predictive model, i.e., rattle, heart rate, anorexia, liver failure, and the Karnofsky performance status. Patient’s survival probability at various time points was estimated. The predictive model showed a good calibration and moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.72 and 0.79) in the home care validation set, but model calibration was suboptimal in hospice patients.Conclusions The new multivariable predictive model for palliative cancer patients’ survival (PACS model) includes clinical parameters routinely at patient’s admission to PC and can be easily used to facilitate immediate and appropriate clinical decisions for PC cancer patients in the home setting.

The Lombardy Region has one of the most widespread and advanced models of Palliative Care (PC) in the country. However, there is a relative lack of updated data referring to the activity of the Lombardy PC network.This work aims to describe the activity carried out in the two main PC care settings (home care and hospice) in 2019 through the analysis of the data sent by each Unit to the Lombardy Region. Data were analysed on a regional basis and considering the 8 Health Protection Agencies (ATS) separately.In 2019, PC activity was provided by 114 home care units (1.14/100,000 inhabitants) and 70 hospice for a total of 812 beds (8.1 beds/100,000 inhabitants). Overall, 25,514 patients were assisted for a total of 29,892 care pathway. 77.6% of the patients assisted were oncologic and about 67% of the patients who died of cancer in Lombardy were intercepted by CP. 54.4% of patients were taken care of in home care, although with a significant difference between cancer patients (58%) and non-cancer patients (42%). In home care, average activation time was 2.8 days and in 81% of cases the assistance was activated within 24-48 hours; in hospice, average activation time was 3.5 days, with 60% of admissions within 24 hours and over 30% with waiting time ≥3 days. The median duration of home palliative care was approximately 21 days (average 40.5), that in hospice was 9 days (average 17.2). In the home care pathways, the prevalent outcome was the death of the patient at home (64%) and hospitalization in hospice (17.2%), while 86% of hospitalizations in hospice ended with death.This accurate report of the Lombardy PC activity indicates that PC satisfy various qualitative indicators of structural and care process identified by national regulations. However, PC still remain predominantly intended for cancer patients, with relatively short duration of care, particularly in the hospice setting.

ObjectivesHospice and home palliative care have been associated to a reduction of aggressive treatments in the end-of-life, but data in the Italian context are scanty. Therefore, we aim to investigate the role of palliative care on indicators of end-of-life intensity of care among patients with cancer in Lombardy, the largest Italian region.MethodsWithin a retrospective study using the healthcare utilisation databases of Lombardy, Italy, we selected all residents who died in 2019 with a diagnosis of cancer. We considered as exposure variables admission to palliative care and time at palliative care admission, and as indicators of aggressive care hospitalisations, diagnostic/therapeutic procedures, in-hospital death, emergency department visits and chemotherapy over a time window of 30 days before death; chemotherapy in the last 14 days was also considered.ResultsOur cohort included 26 539 individuals; of these, 14 320 (54%) were admitted to palliative care before death. Individuals who were admitted to palliative care had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.27 for one hospitalisation, 0.14 for ≥2 hospitalisations, 0.25 for hospital stay ≥12 days, 0.38 for minor diagnostic/therapeutic procedures, 0.18 for major diagnostic/therapeutic procedures, 0.02 for in-hospital death, 0.35 for one emergency department visit, 0.29 for ≥2 emergency department visits and 0.66 for chemotherapy use in the last 30 days; the OR was 0.56 for chemotherapy use in the last 14 days.ConclusionsThis large real-world analysis confirms and further support the importance of palliative care assistance for patients with cancer in the end- of- life; this is associated to a significant reduction in unnecessary treatments.

e20579 Background: Recently, the PORT-C (China) and Lung ART (Europe) trials have been reported for non-small cell lung cancer patients (NSCLC) with surgically resected N2 nodal disease subsequently randomized to post-operative radiation (PORT). The two studies noted widely different locoregional relapse (LR) rates in the control arms, 18.3% in PORT-C and 28.1%(46% of recurrences) in Lung ART. We performed a meta-analysis of patients with N0-N2 disease to better understand risk factors for LR, and the possible differences in risk and rates between Asian (AP) vs. non-Asian populations (NAP). Methods: The present systematic review and meta-analysis identified all original studies of curative NSCLC surgical resections which reported risk and rates of LR between January 1st, 2000 and January 10th, 2021. Studies were excluded if patient number was less than 10, if metastatic disease was present, or if any neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and/or radiation was given. Eighty-seven studies were included; of these, 56 were of high quality (HQ) based on the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (ratings 7-9). For each risk factor, we derived pooled relative risk (RR) and rate estimates using random-effects models. Results: Overall, the three highest pooled RRs for LR were N2 vs. N0 (RR 3.01), lymphovascular invasion (LVI; 1.92), and advanced T stage (T3-T4) vs. T1 (1.86). For HQ studies, the highest RRs for LR were LVI (1.94), sublobar vs. lobar resection (1.86), and N1 vs. N0 (1.84), but N2 vs N0 was no longer significant (RR 3.0 (95% confidence interval 0.57 -15.61) based on only 2 studies. The RRs for LR were consistent for most factors across geographic areas, although the RRs for male vs. female sex were higher in AP (1.44) than in NAP (1.09). The pooled rate of LR at 5-years was lower in the AP 12.00% (6.92-17.09) vs. NAP 22.66% (17.06 - 28.26), despite similar overall recurrence rates (both LR and distal) at 5 years in both populations: 38.03% (25.15-50.90) in AP and 37.30% (32.44-42.17) in NAP. However, a lower 5-year mortality rate was noted in AP (24.30%, 15.56 -33.03) than in NAP (45.87%, 41.23-50.50). Conclusions: Our meta-analysis found that N2 nodal disease is not a risk factor for LR when considering HQ studies based upon scant data, and confirmed that LR is lower in AP. We propose that prospective evaluation of LR risk factors and rates should be undertaken prior to any other prospective evaluation of PORT because LR may not be dependent upon N2 node status and because LR rates may differ in AP.