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Accurate predictions of heavy and intense rainfall are vital for impact-based forecasting that can be essential for mitigating the significant damage and loss of life across the globe. However, producing reliable forecasts capable of capturing the rainfall values is challenging in complex mountain terrain due to the forecast uncertainty and computational cost especially in data-scarce regions. Central Asia is one of these regions, where extreme rainfall leads to flash floods, landslides and debris flows in the mountains and foothills. The risk of these events increases with global warming, and the early warning systems based on reliable forecasts are particularly important to manage the risk in the region and adapt to climate change.In this study, we have evaluated and compared the skills of two probabilistic forecasts developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): standard Ensemble Forecasts (ENS) which consists of an ensemble of 51 members and ecPoint Rainfall produced by statistical post-processing of the ENS and delivers probabilistic forecasts of rainfall totals for points within a model gridbox (18 km resolution) that can be particularly useful in the mountains. Skills of both forecasts were assessed in relation to the forecast of debris flows in Central Asia.Both forecast products were verified against SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) data for stations over Central Asia, mainly for the debris flow season (March-October) in 2022. In this case, two popular verification methods were used: Brier Score and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagram for the exceedance of precipitation thresholds of 1 mm, 10 mm and 25 mm.Verification trials over the 2022 debris flow season in Central Asia show that the performance of ecPoint Rainfall depending on the forecast lead-time can be a good proxy for the range of point rainfall values to define the warning areas of debris flow risk over the study area. The ecPoint Rainfall is recommended for the operational application of heavy rainfall leading to debris flow formation which can support impact-orientated forecasting and early warning systems in Central Asia.

The mountains of Central Asia are water towers servicing the arid downstream regions and maintaining irrigation and food production. There are several sources of runoff: liquid precipitation, snowpack, glacier ice, ground ice (including rock glaciers and permafrost), and ground water. The relative contributions of different water sources to stream flow are poorly quantified and its improved understanding will reduce uncertainty in hydrological modelling and projections of changes in water resources. In 2019-21, an extensive sampling programme was conducted to quantify the relative contributions of water sources to stream flow in the Tien Shan and Pamir-Alai using stable water isotope tracers (SWI) of oxygen and hydrogen. Samples of the event-based precipitation, river discharge taken daily or twice-daily at the designated sampling points and every fortnight along the river courses, and water sources were collected in the glacierized catchments in Kazakhstan (Ulken Almaty and Kishi Almaty catchments), Kyrgyzstan (Ala-Archa and Chon-Kyzyl Suu), Tajikistan (Varzob and Kafornihon), and Uzbekistan (Chirchik). The samples were processed using Picarro isotope analyser. A data set of SWI ratios from approximately 6000 samples has been produced and analysed. It is the first comprehensive SWI database in Central Asia contributing to understanding of regional and global isoscapes and water resources. The local meteoric water line (LMWL) was developed from the event-based precipitation samples. It is approximated as δD = 7.6δ18O + 8.7. The values of SWI in precipitation exhibit a clear annual cycle and depend on precipitation type (rain, snow, and mixed). The derived seasonal SWI values are different from those available from the Water Isotopes Database being nearly twice as high in winter. Snow, glacier ice and permafrost exhibit distinct isotopic signatures although these vary between the basins. Glacier ice in the Chirchik basin appears to be more depleted than elsewhere. Rock glaciers were sampled in the Ulken Almaty basin showing SWI ratios similar to those of glacier ice but both are distinct from permafrost. These results point at the feasibility of the application of the mixing model and end-member mixing analysis approaches to the partitioning of runoff and quantifying relative contributions of different water sources in the Tien Shan and Pamir-Alai. This is a policy-relevant task under the conditions of climate change.

Many mountainous environments and ecosystems around the world are responding rapidly to ongoing climate change. Long-term climatological time-series from such regions are crucial for developing improving understanding of the underlying mechanisms responsible for such changes, and generating more reliable future impact projections for environmental managers and other decision makers. Whilst it is already established that high elevation regions tend to be comparatively under-sampled, detailed spatial and other patterns in the coverage of mountain climatological data have not yet been comprehensively assessed on a global basis. To begin to address this deficiency, we analyse the coverage of records associated with the mountainous subset of the Global Historical Climatological Network-Daily (GHCNd) inventory with respect to space, time, and elevation. Three key climate-related variables – air temperature, precipitation, and snow depth – are considered across 292 named mountain ranges. To characterise data coverage relative to topographic, hydrological, and socio-economic factors, several additional datasets were introduced. Spatial mountain data coverage is highly uneven, and there are several mountain ranges whose elevational range is severely under-sampled by GHCNd stations. Crucially, the three "Water Tower Units" previously identified as having the greatest hydrological importance to society appear to have extremely low station densities. Mountain station density is weakly related to the human population or economic output of the corresponding downstream catchments. A script we developed enables detailed assessments of record temporal coverage and measurement quality information. This contribution should help international authorities and more regional stakeholders to identify areas, variables, and other aspects that should be prioritised for investment in infrastructure and capacity. Finally, the transparent and reproducible approach taken throughout will enable the work to be rapidly repeated for subsequent versions of GHCNd, and may furthermore enable similar analyses to be efficiently conducted on other spatial reporting boundaries and/or environmental monitoring station networks.

Supra-glacial material, including light-absorbing impurities (LAI) such as mineral dust of crustal and soil origin, black carbon, algae and cryoconite, reduce the reflectance of snow and glacier ice. The reduction depends on the amount of LAI and their physical and chemical properties, which vary spatially and temporally. Spectral reflectance data and snow and ice samples, containing LAI, were collected in the ablation zone of the Djankuat Glacier, Central Caucasus, Russia. The spectra of the samples containing mineral dust transported from deserts were characterized by negative visible near-infrared gradients and were different from the spectra of clean aged snow and exposed glacier ice and from the samples containing mineral dust produced locally. Geochemical and mineralogical analysis using X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry showed that samples containing desert dust were characterised by a high proportion of clay materials and such minerals as smectites, illite–smectites and palygorskite and by a smaller size of mineral particles. They were enriched in chromium, zinc and vanadium. The latter served as an indicator of dust transport over or origin from the oil-producing regions of the Middle East. There was a strong negative correlation between the amount of organic matter and mineral dust in the collected samples and the albedo of surfaces from which the samples were collected. The results suggested that organic matter reduced albedo more efficiently than mineral dust. The study highlighted the importance of supra-glacial material in changing the surface reflectivity of snow and glaciers in the Caucasus region.

Numerous applications, including generating future predictions via numerical modelling, establishing appropriate policy instruments, and effectively tracking progress against them, require the multitude of complex processes and interactions operating in rapidly changing mountainous environmental systems to be well monitored and understood. At present, however, not only are environmental available data pertaining to mountains often severely limited, but interdisciplinary consensus regarding which variables should be considered absolute observation priorities remains lacking. In this context, the concept of so-called Essential Mountain Climate Variables (EMCVs) is introduced as a potential means to identify critical observation priorities and thereby ameliorate the situation. Following a brief overview of the most critical aspects of ongoing and expected future climate-driven change in various key mountain system components (i.e. the atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere), a preliminary list of corresponding potential EMCVs – ranked according to perceived importance – is proposed. Interestingly, several of these variables do not currently feature amongst the globally relevant Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) curated by GCOS, suggesting this mountain-specific approach is indeed well justified. Thereafter, both established and emerging possibilities to measure, generate, and apply EMCVs are summarised. Finally, future activities that must be undertaken if the concept is eventually to be formalized and widely applied are recommended.

The mountains of Central Asia, extending over 7000 m a.s.l. and accommodating diverse and complex natural and managed systems, are very vulnerable to climate change. They support valuable environmental functions and provide key ecosystem goods and services to the arid downstream regions which strongly depend on the melting snowpack and glaciers for the provision of water by the transboundary rivers starting in the mountains. Strong climate change adaptation (CCA) action is required to increase resilience of the vulnerable, low-income communities in the region. Our knowledge of the CCA actions in the mountains of Central Asia is limited in comparison with other mountainous regions. The aim of this study is to assess the existing adaptation projects and publications and to identify gaps in adaptation efforts by conducting a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature published in English language. To be selected, the papers had to comply with the following criteria: (i) publication between 2013 and 2019; (ii) explicit focus on CCA in the mountain ranges of Central Asia; (iii) explanation of adaptation options; (vi) a clear methodology of deriving suitable adaptation options. Following the initial screening and subsequent reading of the publications, complying with the specified criteria, 33 peer-reviewed articles were selected for final analysis. This is considerably lower than the number of publications on the European Alps, Hindu-Kush – Himalayas, and the Andes. The number of publications on Central Asian mountains has declined since 2013.The research is heavily focused on the problem of water resources, especially water availability at present and in the future 70 % of the analysed papers addressing these issues. These are followed by the papers considering adaptation in agriculture and in managing biodiversity. A critical finding is the lack of publications on adaptation to hazards and disasters including glacier outburst floods, mudflow, and landslides which are common and comparatively well-researched hazards in the Central Asian mountains, experiencing rapid deglaciation. About 50 % of the papers address the transboundary nature of the impacts of climate changes on water resources and land management reflecting the transboundary nature of the Central Asian catchments and the tensions which exist across the region but are especially prominent in the Aral Sea basin.We conclude that while there is ample evidence of climate change and its impacts in the mountains of Central Asia and many publications mention the need for adaptation, a very limited number of publications explicitly focus on CCA and how it can be delivered.

The first inventory of dust emission sources in Central Asia and northwestern China (35–50°N, 50–100°E) derived from the twice daily MODIS imagery from 2003 to 2012 is presented. A high‐resolution (1 km) dust enhancement product was generated to produce maps of dust point sources (DPS), indicating geographical locations of the observed dust emissions, and gridded data sets of dust emission frequencies. About 13,500 DPS were detected over an area of ∼5 × 106 km2, however, their distribution was uneven. The highest frequency of DPS occurred in the northern and eastern Taklimakan, in the Aralkum, and in the regions, which were not widely reported in literature before, the Balkh delta in northern Afghanistan and the pre‐Aral, from the northern Caspian coast to the Betpak‐Dala desert in Kazakhstan. South of the Aral, DPS were mainly associated with fluvial features: drying lakes, dry river beds, alluvial deposits and agricultural activity which is closely linked to water availability in this arid region. In the pre‐Aral and Balkhash‐Junggar regions, land damaged by wildfire was the main source of dust. In China and eastern Kazakhstan dust emissions peaked in spring; in Central Asia and western Kazakhstan—in summer. The Aralkum was active throughout the year with a positive trend in emission frequency over the study period. Locations of DPS did not always correlate with high atmospheric optical depth (AOD) particularly west of the Aral and in the southern Taklimakan where few DPS were detected despite the high AOD values. This was attributed to dust transport from the upwind sources.

Summary The numerous processes implicated in the rapid and profound climate-driven changes that are underway across the world's mountains must be well monitored, understood, and—as far as possible—accurately projected. However, not only are the available environmental data upon which such activities hinge often severely limited, but interdisciplinary consensus regarding which variables should be considered observation priorities also remains elusive. Here, the concept of Essential Mountain Climate Variables (EMCVs) is introduced as a potential means of ameliorating the situation. After a review of climate-driven environmental change in mountains, a preliminary set of corresponding EMCVs is proposed. Variables pertaining to several disciplines naturally feature prominently. In addition, several are not currently considered to hold broader global relevance, which justifies our mountain-specific approach. Established and emerging possibilities to measure, generate, and apply EMCVs are then summarized. Finally, future activities toward the concept’s formalization are recommended. Ultimately, the approach hopes to increase the utility of mountainous environmental data to both fundamental science and decision making related to environmental management, risk mitigation, and adaptation.

Glacier ice, including ice sheets and ice caps, covers about 10% of the Earth's surface and stores 69% of freshwater. Over the last millennium, glaciers reached their maximum extent during the Little Ice Age but began to retreat at the end of the 19th century. Glacier wastage has been accelerating worldwide since the second half of the 20th century. Currently, glaciers across most of the polar and mountain regions have negative mass balance dominated by surface melt. This global trend is attributed to the continuing climatic warming. Glaciers in the Karakoram-Kunlun-Pamir region are a notable exception. Recent advancements in satellite data acquisition enabled more reliable assessments of mass balance of ice sheets. Increasing loss of ice from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and their peripheral glaciers has been observed since the 1990s. The combined glacier and ice sheet contribution is now the dominant source of global mean sea level rise. The Greenland ice sheet makes the largest contribution followed by a combined input from glaciers. Both significantly exceed that of Antarctica. Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, and the Southern Andes account for the largest contribution from glaciers. Glacier wastage is expected to continue in the future, and in many mountain regions glaciers may disappear or retreat to high elevations. Large uncertainty surrounds future evolution of ice sheets but there is a possibility that the Greenland ice sheet may decline to the point of no recovery.

The Kishi and Ulken Almaty rivers drain glacierized catchments in the northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan. Both rivers supply water for the Almaty agglomeration with population around 2.5 million. Changes in discharge of these [and many other regional] rivers are affected by changes in all components of the cryosphere (seasonal snow, glacier ice, ground ice) as well as precipitation and ground water. Uncertainties of projections of water availability in the context of the observed climatic warming are an important economic and politic issue in this region. Knowledge of the extent, to which discharge of these rivers depends on different sources of nourishment, is important for the formulation of regional adaptation strategies and policies.A comprehensive data set on concentrations of daily values of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, temperature, precipitation, and discharge was collected in both catchments in 2017 and 2018 in order to characterize contribution of different sources of water to total discharge. There is a clear correlation between isotopic concentrations in stream water with temperature, precipitation and discharge enabling separation between contributions of ground water (δ2H=–78.25 ‰; δ18O=–11.80 ‰), snow melt (δ2H=–84.56 ‰; δ18O=–13.20 ‰), and glacial melt (δ2H=–78.97 ‰; δ18O=–12.41 ‰). Analysis of isotopic signatures of sources of water shows separation between seasonal snow, glacier ice, rock glaciers and permafrost.Following these preliminary results, the sampling programme has been extended in 2019 to the Ulken Almaty and Kishi Almaty (Kazakhstan), Ala-Archa and Chon Kyzyl-Cuu (Kyrgyzstan), Chirchik (Uzbekistan), Varzob-Kofarnihon (Tajikistan) catchments in 2019-2020 enabling the development of the most comprehensive data set on water isotopes in Central Asia.

Central Asia (CA) is considered a hot-spot for climate-change impact on the water-cycle because of a high density of glaciated, montane catchments. Of particular concern are catchments in the Tien Shan and the Pamir Mountains in the areas, where glacial-fed rivers flow past major urban centres, and in the west of Central Asia near the Caspian and Aral Seas. Climate-change studies, which focus on Central Asia, consider mainly long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation, shrinking glaciers and physical hydrology, complex transboundary water management and policy issues. While, water quality (WQ) has received much less attention yet is noted as a potential issue primarily due to exposure of heavy metals and trace elements due to glacial retreat, release of aerosols deposited in snow and ice, and the dilution of pollutants from urban and farmed areas further downstream. To fill this knowledge gap the current project ‘Solutions to secure clean water in the glacier-fed catchments of Central Asia – what happens after the ice?’ established WQ monitoring program in four CA countries. The project aims to characterise and model, in a consistent and comparable way, the impacts of climate change and diminishing cryosphere on water availability and quality in the selected glacier-fed catchments informing environmental policies and adaptation strategies and building research capacity in the region. To this end WQ sampling and measurements were established in four glacier-fed alpine catchments on rivers passing major cities: Kishi and Ulken Almaty rivers (Kazakhstan, Almaty city), Ala-Archa River (Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek city), Chirchik River (Uzbekistan, Tashkent city), Varzob (Tajikistan, Dushanbe city). The WQ monitoring programme is based on bi-weekly sampling along river elevation profile from upstream (closer to glacierized area) to downstream (up to a reservoir or inflow to a major river). Groundwater (urban, artesian, springs), streamwater, reservoirs have been sampled and measured for temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), pH, nitrates, phosphates in situ and in the labs by local teams. These measurements are complemented by extended analysis for cations and anions during peak of steam flow (glacier and snow melt period) and low flow season in autumn (baseflow dominated). The preliminary results show that these catchments relatively clean with potentially toxic elements not exceeding WHO drinking water values in all monitored components. The dilution effect of glacier and snow melt on streamwater in summer is reflected in EC seasonal pattern. Primary concerns are elevated nitrate concentrations in urban groundwater in three studied catchments (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) with median values exceeding 10 mg/L of nitrate-N (a WHO’s drinking water guidelines threshold). The intermittent spikes of high phosphates in streamwater and groundwater in Uzbekistan in the autumn, in some cases reaching more than 4 mg/L (phosphate-P) are possibly linked to fertilizers wash-out by rainfall.

South-eastern Kazakhstan is located in the foothills of the Northern Tien Shan Mountains. It has favourable conditions for growing diverse crops but many depend on irrigation. Water is provided by the melt of seasonal snow pack and glaciers. Crop production in this region is relatively vulnerable to climate change. This study carried experimental measurement with modelling approach to assess and determine how climate change will impact major crop production in the region. The SALTMED crop model was tested for its ability to simulate soil water content (SWC), and final grain yield (Y) for rain-fed winter wheat and irrigated spring maize in 2017 and 2019 respectively. SALTMED is able to simulate SWC with a high degree of accuracy in both field. Simulating maize yield is fairly well, and if an adjustment was made for the locust effect for wheat, simulation would be better. Therefore, since SALTMED does not include the effect of pest on crop yield, a fairer test of the model would estimate the yield without the pest effect. Generally, SALTMED can be applicable in the region.

Impacts of projected climate and glacier change on river discharge in five glacierized catchments in the northern Tien Shan, Kazakhstan are investigated using a conceptual hydrological model HBV-ETH. Regional climate model PRECIS driven by four different GCM-scenario combinations (HadGEM2.6, HadGEM8.5, A1B using HadCM3Q0 and ECHAM5) is used to develop climate projections. Future changes in glaciation are assessed using the Blatter&ndash, Pattyn type higher-order 3D coupled ice flow and mass balance model. All climate scenarios show statistically significant warming in the 21st Century. Neither projects statistically significant change in annual precipitation although HadGEM and HadCM3Q0-driven scenarios show 20&ndash, 37% reduction in July&ndash, August precipitation in 2076&ndash, 2095 in comparison with 1980&ndash, 2005. Glaciers are projected to retreat rapidly until the 2050s and stabilize afterwards except under the HadGEM8.5 scenario where retreat continues. Glaciers are projected to lose 38&ndash, 50% of their volume and 34&ndash, 39% of their area. Total river discharge in July&ndash, August, is projected to decline in catchments with low (2&ndash, 4%) glacierization by 20&ndash, 37%. In catchments with high glacierization (16% and over), no significant changes in summer discharge are expected while spring discharge is projected to increase. In catchments with medium glacierization (10&ndash, 12%), summer discharge is expected to decline under the less aggressive scenarios while flow is sustained under the most aggressive HadGEM8.5 scenario, which generates stronger melt.

Mountain Research and Development, 40 (3), ISSN:0276-4741, ISSN:1994-7151

Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. The number of lakes increased by 6.2 % from 599 to 636 with a growth rate of 0.51 % a−1. The combined areas were 16.26 ± 0.85 to 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively and the overall change was within the uncertainty of measurements. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The glacier bed topography version 2 (GlabTop2) model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model) as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. A total of 513 overdeepenings in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of the overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes.

The alpine cryosphere, including snow, glaciers and permafrost, is critical to water management in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) and larger Central Asia (CA) under the changing climate, as it stores large amounts of water in its solid forms. Most cryospheric components in the Aral Sea Basin are close to melting point, and hence very vulnerable to a slight increase in air temperature with significant consequences to long-term water availability and to water resources variability and extremes. Current knowledge about different components of the cryosphere and their connection to climate in the Basin and in the entire Central Asia region varies. While it is advanced in the topics of snow and glaciers, knowledge on permafrost is rather limited. Observed trends in runoff point in the direction of increasing water availability in July and August at least until mid-century and increasing possibility for water storage in reservoirs and aquifers. However, eventually this will change as glaciers waste away. Future runoff may change considerably after mid-century and start to decline if not compensated by increasing precipitation. Cryosphere monitoring systems are the basis for sound estimates of water availability and water-related hazards associated with snow, glaciers and permafrost. They require a well-distributed observational network for all cryospheric variables. Such systems need to be re-established in the Basin after the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. This process is slowly emerging in the region. Collaboration between local operational hydro-meteorological services and the academic sector, and with international research networks, may improve the observational capabilities in high-mountain regions of CA in general and in the ASB in particular.

This paper presents the first inventory of dust emission sources in Central Asia and western China (35-50°N, 50-100°E) derived from the twice daily MODIS imagery from 2003-2012. The high-resolution (1 km) dust enhancement product was generated and used to produce maps of dust point sources and gridded data sets of dust emission frequencies. The most active dust emissions were observed in the eastern part of the Tarim basin (Lop Nur salt lake) followed by the Aralkum. A high frequency of dust emissions was recorded in the regions which were not reported in literature to date: the upper Amudarya region in northern Afghanistan and the Pre-Aral region (from the Ustyurt Plateau to the Betpak Dala desert). Dust emissions were associated mainly with the fluvial features (dry river beds and lakes), agricultural activities and fire damage to vegetation. In the eastern and northern parts of the study region and in the Aralkum, dust emissions peaked in spring while in the western and southern parts, they peaked in summer. The Aralkum exhibited a consistent growth in the frequency and intensity of dust emissions and similar but weaker trends were observed in the Karakum and Kyzylkum.

This study is an assessment of the changes in seasonal and monthly flow in seven catchments draining the northern Tien Shan Mountains in Central Asia over a period from the 1950s to the present day. The purpose is to provide a first assessment of the flow response to climate change in regionally important catchments given their contribution to the water resource. All the catchments have a natural flow regime, and are therefore sensitive to climate change, but differ in area, elevation and glacial extent. Trends in flow were characterised using the Mann-Kendall test for standard meteorological seasons and individual months for mean flow, five flow quantiles and peak-over-threshold series for the period 1974–2013 at all sites and from the 1950s where data were available. The results were related to trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation from the regional high elevation meteorological stations and glacier mass balance, equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and accumulation\ud area ratio (AAR) records from the Tuyuksu glacier. The results show no reduction in streamflow in any catchment or season in the northern Tien Shan since the 1950s. Positive trends in all flow indicators, including peak over- threshold frequency, were observed in catchments with higher glacierization of over 10% and extensive presence of rock glaciers and permafrost indicating increased melt over the period which is characterised by a long-term increase in temperature. These trends were most evident in autumn and winter. In catchments with low glacierization, variability in summer flow was controlled primarily by precipitation of the preceding cold season. Correlation with glacier mass balance was weak but changes in ELA and AAR indicate that production of liquid runoff at higher elevations contributes to increased streamflow partly compensating for the declining glacier area. The observed changes in streamflow do not suggest any immediate problems with water availability\ud in the northern Tien Shan. On the contrary, increased autumn and winter flows point at a more prolonged recharge of reservoirs and aquifers though eventually this water source will be exhausted.

Mountain Research and Development, 38 (3), ISSN:0276-4741, ISSN:1994-7151

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across NorthernEurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted ina variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia FutureInitiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth SciencePartnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoingenvironmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. Akey principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies codesignedwith regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental andinstitutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base tosupport the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge.It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFIscience questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are brieflyjustified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme andinclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes inthe biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmentalchange; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks betweenthe Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphereessential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scalewater withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities forfuture human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the finalstage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluationof economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation andadaptation efforts.

Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km2. Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr−1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr−1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. In 2002 and 2014, 599 lakes with a combined area of 16.26 ± 0.85 km2 and 636 lakes with a combined area of 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively were identified. The number of lakes and their combined area increased by 6.2 % and 6.6 % representing growth rates of 0.51 % a−1 and 0.55 % a−1. Contact lakes exhibited the largest growth. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The GlabTop2 model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. 513 overdeepening in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of modelled overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the modelled overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes.

Change in glacier area in the Kuksu and Kunes river basins, which are tributaries to the internationally important Ile River, were assessed at two different time steps between 1962/63, 1990/93, and 2010/12. Overall, glaciers lost 191.3 &plusmn, 16.8 km2 or 36.9 &plusmn, 6.5% of the initial area. Glacier wastage intensified in the latter period: While in 1962/63&ndash, 1990/93 glaciers were losing 0.5% a&minus, 1, in 1990/93&ndash, 2010/12, they were losing 1.2% a&minus, 1. Streamflow of the Ile River and its tributaries do not exhibit statistically significant change during the vegetative period between May and September. Positive trends were observed in the Ile flow in autumn, winter, and early spring. By contrast, the calculation of the total runoff from the glacier surface (including snow and ice melt) using temperature-index method and runoff forming due to melting of multiyear ice estimated from changes in glacier volume at different time steps between the 1960s and 2010s, showed that their absolute values and their contribution to total river runoff declined since the 1980s. This change is attributed to a strong reduction in glacier area.

The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

A significant desert dust deposition event occurred on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009, where the deposited dust later appeared as a brown layer in the snow pack. An examination of dust transportation history and analysis of chemical and physical properties of the deposited dust were used to develop a new approach for high-resolution "provenancing" of dust deposition events recorded in snow pack using multiple independent techniques. A combination of SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived with HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 100 km) resolution. Dust, deposited on 5 May 2009, originated in the foothills of the Djebel Akhdar in eastern Libya where dust sources were activated by the intrusion of cold air from the Mediterranean Sea and Saharan low pressure system and transported to the Caucasus along the eastern Mediterranean coast, Syria and Turkey. Particles with an average diameter below 8 μm accounted for 90% of the measured particles in the sample with a mean of 3.58 μm, median 2.48 μm. The chemical signature of this long-travelled dust was significantly different from the locally-produced dust and close to that of soils collected in a palaeolake in the source region, in concentrations of hematite. Potential addition of dust from a secondary source in northern Mesopotamia introduced uncertainty in the "provenancing" of dust from this event. Nevertheless, the approach adopted here enables other dust horizons in the snowpack to be linked to specific dust transport events recorded in remote sensing and meteorological data archives.

Changes in glacierized area in the Kazakhstani sector of the Tekes River basin were assessed using Landsat and KH-9 imagery from 2013, 1992 and 1976. Between 1992 and 2013, the combined area of 118 glaciers declined from 121.4 ± 9.2 km2 to 105.0 ± 5.5 km2. The total area loss was 16.4 ± 5.9 km2 or 13.5 ± 7.5 %. The rate of area reduction was 0.78 km2 a-1 or 0.64 % a-1. This rate is lower than in other regions of northern Tien Shan because of the presence of several large glaciers in the sample. The combined glacier area in 2013 exceeds the combined glacier area reported by the RGI5.0/GAMDAM inventories for 1999–2003 by 24 % because the latter did not include glacierized areas on slopes exceeding 40° and a number of small glaciers. Changes in the recession rates between 1976, 1992 and 2013 were examined using a sub-sample of 28 glaciers which occupied 61% of the total glacierized area in 1992 and 64 % in 2013. These glaciers lost 8.3 ± 5.6 % in the 1976–1992 period, 8.4 ± 5.9 % in the 1992–2013 period and 16.0 ± 5.8 % between 1976 and 2013. The recession rates were 0.52 ± 0.35 % a-1 in 1976–1992 and 0.40 ± 0.28 % a-1 in 1992–2013 and although they appear to indicate a slow down in the glacier recession, the change in the retreat rates is within the uncertainty of measurement. The relative reduction in glacier area in the sub-sample is lower than for the basin as a whole because of a larger size of glaciers. Temperature increase was observed in all seasons reaching 0.18 °C per 10 years in summer and 0.39 °C per 10 years in autumn in the 1947–2015 period. Precipitation exhibited strong variability declining between 1952 and 1977 and then increasing until 2000s with a number of dry years in the 2010s. There was no statistically significant difference between the means of annual precipitation in the 1952–1977 and 1977–2015 periods. Combined with the nearly steady recession rates, this suggests that it is an increase in summer, late spring and early autumn temperature that drives glacier retreat.

Changes in area of 30 small glaciers (mostly 2) in the northern Polar Urals (67.568.25° N) between 1953 and 2000 were assessed using historic aerial photography from 1953 and 1960, ASTER and panchromatic Landsat ETM+ imagery from 2000, and data from 1981 and 2008 terrestrial surveys. Changes in volume and geodetic mass balance of IGAN and Obruchev glaciers were calculated using data from terrestrial surveys in 1963 and 2008. In total, glacier area declined by 22.3 ± 3.9% in the 1953/60-2000 period. The areas of individual glaciers decreased by 4-46%. Surfaces of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers lowered by 22.5 ± 1.7 m and 14.9 ± 2.1 m. Over 45 years, geodetic mass balances of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers were -20.66 ± 2.91 and -13.54 ± 2.57 mw.e. respectively. Glacier shrinkage in the Polar Urals is related to a summer warming of 1°C between 1953-81 and 1981-2008 and its rates are consistent with other regions of northern Asia but are higher than in Scandinavia. While glacier shrinkage intensified in the 1981-2000 period relative to 1953-81, increasing winter precipitation and shading effects slowed glacier wastage in 2000-08.

Recent research in catchments of rapidly developing countries such as Brazil and China suggests that many catchments of the developing world are already showing signs of nitrogen pollution reminiscent of past experiences in developed countries. This paper looks at both the individual and combined effects of future climate change and other likely environmental changes on in-stream nitrate concentrations in a catchment in Northern Turkey. A model chain comprised of simulated future temperature and precipitation from a Regional Circulation Model (RCM), a conceptual hydrological model (HBV) and a widely tested integrated catchment nitrogen model (INCA-N) is used to model future changes in nitrate concentrations. Two future periods (2021–2050 and 2069–2098) are compared to the 1961–1990 baseline period in order to assess the effectiveness of several possible interventions available to catchment authorities. The simulations show that in the urbanised part of the catchment, the effects of climate change and other environmental changes act in the same direction, leading to peak nitrate concentrations of 7.5 mg N/l for the 2069–2098 period, which corresponds to a doubling of the baseline values. Testing different available policy options reveals that the installation of wastewater treatment works (WWTWs) in all major settlements of the catchment could ensure nitrate levels are kept at near their baseline values for the 2021–2050 period. Nevertheless, a combination of measures including WWTWs, meadow creation, international agreements to reduce atmospheric N concentrations and controls on agricultural practises will be required for 2069–2098. The approach presented in this article could be employed in order to anticipate future pollution problems and to test appropriate solutions, some of which will necessitate international co-operation, in other catchments around the world.

A strong climatic warming is currently observed in the Caucasus mountains, which has profound impact on runoff generation in the glaciated Glavny (Main) Range and on water availability in the whole region. To assess future changes in the hydrological cycle, the output of a general circulation model was downscaled statistically. For the 21st century, a further warming by 4–7 °C and a slight precipitation increase is predicted. Measured and simulated meteorological variables were used as input into a runoff model to transfer climate signals into a hydrological response under both present and future climate forcings. Runoff scenarios for the mid and the end of the 21st century were generated for different steps of deglaciation. The results show a satisfactory model performance for periods with observed runoff. Future water availability strongly depends on the velocity of glacier retreat. In a first phase, a surplus of water will increase flood risk in hot years and after continuing glacier reduction, annual runoff will again approximate current values. However, the seasonal distribution of streamflow will change towards runoff increase in spring and lower flows in summer.