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Introduction: Diabetic subjects are at high risk of heart failure (HF) and death. Few data are available on the predictive value of NTproBNP, ECG, and echocardiogram in this population Hypothesis: A screening strategy with NTproBNP, ECG, and echo may improve prediction of HF/death events in a diabetic population in HF-stages A & B, beyond clinical data Methods: In 2008, among 4047 subjects aged >55 and Recently data on HF/death events have been prospectively collected for all diabetic subjects included in the study (n=198) Results: Median age of the study population was 69 yrs, 62% were men, mostly hypertensive (86%) with known cardiovascular disease (44%). During a median follow-up of 5.2 [4.9,5.5] yrs there were 45 HF/death. At Cox regression analyses univariate predictors of events were known cardiovascular disease, insulin therapy, chronic kidney dysfunction (CKD), NTproBNP≥300 pg/mL, abnormal ECG (atrial fibrillation &/or LV hypertrophy &/or bundle branch block &/or Q wave), left atrial volume index (LAVI)≥40 mL/m 2 , LV ejection fraction (LVEF)≤55%, and LV mass index. At multivariate analyses (stepwise forward selection applied to univariate predictors), clinical variables (CKD and known cardiovascular disease), ECG (HR 2.66 [95% CI 1.08-6.55]), LAVI≥40 mL/m 2 (HR 2.50 [95% CI 1.28-4.89]), and LVEF≤55% (HR 2.70 [95% CI 1.45-5.04]) remained significantly associated with the outcome. Adding sequentially NTproBNP, ECG, and echo (LAVI, LVEF) to clinical data improved event prediction (Figure) Conclusions: High risk diabetic subjects may be correctly risk stratified integrating sequentially clinical data with NTproBNP, ECG, and echocardiogram

Prevalence of asymptomatic left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ALVSD) increases with age and cardiovascular (CV) risk exposure. Early diagnosis and treatment allow reducing heart failure and fatal and non-fatal event rates. Data on ALVSD prevalence in Italy are still scarce and ALVSD remains commonly under-diagnosed in primary care, where diagnostic facilities are limited. Among subjects at high CV risk in primary care, we assessed the prevalence of ALVSD and the relative predictive value of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and the Framingham Heart Failure Risk Score (FHFRS).Records of 4047 subjects aged 55-80 years, without history, symptoms or signs of heart failure, registered at three primary care practices in Lombardy, Northern Italy, were reviewed; 623 subjects at high CV risk underwent visit, ECG, echocardiography, NT-proBNP and FHFRS calculation.ALVSD, defined as left ventricular ejection fraction50%, was detected in 33 subjects (5.3%) who showed higher NT-proBNP (p0.001) and FHFRS (p=0.013) than those without ALVSD. NT-proBNP levels beyond normal age and gender-specific 95th percentile had a 97.7% negative predictive value for ALVSD and were associated with a 6-fold increase in ALVSD risk. Adding NT-proBNP to FHFRS significantly improved prediction (C-statistic 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84 vs 0.63, 95% CI 0.53-0.73, p=0.04; net reclassification improvement 38.4%). The combination of FHFRS and major ECG abnormalities was not superior to stand alone NT-proBNP (C-statistic 0.71, 95% CI 0.63-0.80 vs 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.83, p=0.61).In subjects at high CV risk in primary care, prevalence of ALVSD is 5.3%; for diagnosis NT-proBNP adds predictive value to the FHFRS and is equivalent to the combination of FHFRS and ECG. Because of its practical advantages, NT-proBNP might be routinely used for ALVSD screening in primary care.